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**Udog** · 12-25-2016, 08:42 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 16 of the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Patriots (430) -16.5- W

5) Lions (433) +7

4) Ravens (456) +5.5

3) Raiders (501) -3.5- W

2) Buccaneers (593) +3- L

1) Steelers (603) -5.5

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Christmas Eve

Redskins 41, Bears 21— Washington stayed alive in playoff race by picking off five passes and scoring five TDs on 10 drives, converting 8-13 on 3rd down. Very hard to lose an NFL game with a +5 turnover ratio. Redskins host the Giants next week; they’ll need to win and Green Bay to lose its game with Detroit.

Dolphins 34, Bills 31 OT— Miami gave up 589 yards on 90 plays and won; in two games vs Buffalo this season, Dolphins ran ball for 517 yards in sweeping pair of 3-point games. Kicker Franks (from RPI, an engineering/hockey school in Troy, NY) drilled a 55-yard FG with 0:06 to force OT, then ended game with 27-yard FG with 0:47 left in OT. Looks like Miami is going to make playoffs for first time since ’08, but they do host New England next week. Over is 12-2 in last fourteen Buffalo games.

Falcons 33, Panthers 16— Exhibit A why Kyle Shanahan should be the Rams’ next coach; in their last five games, on their first drive of the game, Atlanta has run 36 plays for 286 yards and FIVE TD’s. He’s made Matt Ryan a much better quarterback.

Atlanta jumps into the #2 seed in the NFC, with Seattle losing Sunday. That comes with a week off so it is a big deal.

NFL refs have called three roughing/passer penalties on Carolina opponents this year; they’ve called 13 on New Orleans’ opponents. I’m guessing Cam Newton’s dad knows that stat.

Packers 38, Vikings 25— Green Bay won its last five games, can win NFC North if it wins at Detroit next week; Pack is +12 in turnovers in its last three games. Minnesota is now 2-8 in its last ten games after a 5-0 start. Over is 7-2 in last nine Green Bay games. Three of Packers’ five TD drives were less than 60 yards. It was 37 degrees at kickoff in Green Bay, oddly warm for Christmas Eve.

Patriots 41, Jets 3— Sitting in the sportsbook all day watching games is great fun; group of guys near me bet the Jets (+24) in a teaser, because “……even if they’re way behind at the end they can still cover.” That sounded a lot better at 9:55am than it did at halftime, when New England led 27-0. Patriots won 21 of the 29 third down plays in the game.

Bryce Petty got KO’d before he completed a pass. Good news for Jets; apparently Todd Bowles only had kidney stones, so he made it to Foxboro for the game and will be fine.

Jaguars 38, Titans 17— Not only did Tennessee lose when they were tied for first in AFC South, they lost QB Mariota (broken leg). Jacksonville broke its 9-game losing streak, but they’ve trailed at halftime in only one of last six games- they have some potential. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 16-11 vs spread in divisional games this season. Over is 7-3 in Jaguars’ last ten games.

Browns 20, Chargers 17— Cleveland blocked a last-second FG to seal its first win of the year. This was fifth game this season Browns led at halftime. Last five times they had the ball, San Diego ran 23 plays for 23 yards and zero points. Hard to win that way.

As for San Diego, they’re probably moving to LA next season, they’re probably going to have a new coach and with Philip Rivers closer to 40 years old than 30, they might rebuild with a young QB too. Under is 6-1 in Browns’ last seven games, 4-0-1 in Chargers’ last five games.

Raiders 33, Colts 25— It can go rotten so quickly; Derek Carr broke his leg near the end of this game when the outcome was pretty much already decided- Raiders were up 33-14 when he got hurt. Oakland ran ball for 210 yards, threw for 249; they still lead AFC West but now Matt McGloin is the starter going forward. Indy is 0-5-1 vs spread in games following a win; AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 9-15 vs spread this season.

49ers 22, Rams 21— So the early games are almost all over and I’m waiting for the Ram game to start; this middle-aged Asian lady sits next to me in the sportsbook, whips out a thick wad of $100 bills and counts out $7,000 in cash. I know, I counted along with her.

Then she tells me how if the Falcons and Miami win their games, she will cash another $4,500 (she showed me those two tickets).

When Miami won, I asked her if she wanted to buy me dinner (she didn’t).

I asked her who her favorite NFL team was and she told me this: “I don’t have a favorite team; you have a favorite, you lose. I play to gamble.” And with that, she was gone. A fine woman.

Cardinals 34, Seahawks 31 OT— Seattle drops out of the #2 seed in NFC- both their games with Arizona this season went OT. Home team is now 1-6-1 in last eight series games, with Arizona winning three of last four visits here. Last six Redbird games went over total.

Seattle is a legitimately strange team; they’re 9-5-1 but they split with the Rams, went 0-1-1 vs Arizona, they lost to the Saints/Bucs- none of those teams are going to the playoffs.

Saints 31, Buccaneers 24— Tampa Bay was -2 in turnovers; so far this week, teams that were -2 or worse in turnovers are 0-7 vs spread. This is why handicapping can be so difficult; there is no way to accurately predict the bounce of an oblong ball.

Green Bay assumes lead for last Wild Card spot with this result. Tampa Bay’s program has progressed in Dirk Koetter’s first year as head coach, but it could’ve been a lot better. As for the Saints, they could look a lot different next year, with Sean Payton rumored to be a candidate in Los Angeles and Drew Brees advancing in age.

**Udog** · 12-25-2016, 08:46 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Sunday, December 25

Southern Miss @ Hawaii

Game 517-518
December 25, 2016 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Southern Miss
43.842
Hawaii
46.799
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hawaii
by 3
138
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hawaii
by 10
125 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Miss
(+10); Over

San Francisco @ San Diego St

Game 515-516
December 25, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
60.935
San Diego St
59.338
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 5
138 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+5); Over

Illinois State @ Tulsa

Game 513-514
December 25, 2016 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Illinois State
65.503
Tulsa
52.069
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Illinois State
by 13 1/2
139
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Illinois State
by 5
136
Dunkel Pick:
Illinois State
(-5); Over

Stephen F Austin @ Utah

Game 511-512
December 25, 2016 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stephen F Austin
47.605
Utah
69.153
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 21 1/2
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 14 1/2
141
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-14 1/2); Over

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, December 25

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SF AUSTIN ST (5 - 6) vs. UTAH (8 - 3) - 12/25/2016, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 0-0 against the spread versus SF AUSTIN ST over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 1-0 straight up against SF AUSTIN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ILLINOIS ST (7 - 4) vs. TULSA (6 - 5) - 12/25/2016, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 1-0 against the spread versus ILLINOIS ST over the last 3 seasons
TULSA is 1-0 straight up against ILLINOIS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 2) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (7 - 4) - 12/25/2016, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 86-119 ATS (-44.9 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 84-118 ATS (-45.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SOUTHERN MISS (3 - 8) at HAWAII (4 - 7) - 12/25/2016, 2:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, December 25

Utah is 8-3 vs schedule #335; their best player Kuzma has an injured ankle, is doubtful here. Utes are 6-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with four of six wins by 14+ points. Utah is turning ball over 21.2% of time (#285), is #191 experience team that is shooting 57.6% inside arc. SF Austin has a new coach and is #258 experience team; they’re 5-6 vs schedule #105, losing by 23-16 points in only two top 100 games (Kentucky/Arkansas). Teams are shooting 59.5% inside arc vs SFA and they’re turning ball over 25.8% of time.

Illinois State led Tulsa by 14 with 14:36 left on Dec 7, but lost 70-68, despite making 12-28 on arc, while Golden Hurricane was only 14-24 on foul line. Tulsa lost 7 of its top 8 scorers from LY, is turning ball over 24.2% of time (#342) but they’re 6-5 vs schedule #172, 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 27-4-19 points. Illinois State is 7-4 vs schedule #140; they’re 3-3 vs teams ranked in top 150. Redbirds are #105 experience team that is playing pace #284.

San Francisco is 10-2 vs schedule #348; they’ve got a new coach, are shooting 42.6% from arc (#6 in country)- their eFG% is #7 in country. Dons starts three sophs, one freshman so this week has been a pleasant surprise. USF hadn’t played a top 100 team this season before they upset Utah/Illinois State to get here. San Diego State is 7-4 vs schedule #243; they’re #101 experience team that is playing pace #270. Aztecs are 2-3 vs teams ranked in top 150; they’re starting three sophs, one junior.

Southern Mississippi lost its last seven games, is 1-8 vs D-I teams (#231 schedule); they’re #51 experience team thats played schedule #231, so outlook isn’t bright. Golden Eagles are making 26.3% of 3-pointers (#346), turn ball over 21.7% of time (#308)- they scored 53 pts/game in their last three games. Hawai’i is host team; they’ve got 11 new players this year. Rainbows lost their last four games, scoring 54 pts/game; they’re turning ball over 22.1% of time, making just 28% of their 3-pointers.

NCAAB

Sunday, December 25

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Trend Report
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12:30 PM
SOUTHERN MISS vs. HAWAII
Southern Miss is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Hawaii is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Hawaii is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

2:30 PM
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN vs. UTAH
No trends available
Utah is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games

6:30 PM
TULSA vs. ILLINOIS STATE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Illinois State's last 5 games
Illinois State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

8:30 PM
SAN DIEGO STATE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
No trends available
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

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Announcement

Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/25

Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/25

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