Announcement

**Udog** · 12-12-2016, 08:40 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 14 of the Westgate SuperContest:

6) Green Bay Packers +2.5 (408)- W

5) Minnesota Vikings -3 (420)- W

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (440)- W

3) Washington Redskins -1 (481)- W

2) Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (558)- W

1) Baltimore Ravens +7 (577)
Strong week for popular opinion

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…..

Titans 13, Broncos 10— Tennessee has to be excited; they’re 7-6, tied for first in AFC South and they have the Rams’ #1 draft pick next year, so they’ll clean up next April and get even better. This was an ugly game; Titans scored 10 points on first two possessions, then held on for the win despite gaining only 178 yards the rest of the game. Mariota was 6-20/88 passing, but his team won. Five of last six Denver games stayed under the total.

Panthers 28, Chargers 16— San Diego turned ball over five times (-4). I have a question: Why can’t the Chargers just stay in San Diego and play in Qualcomm? Why is it better for them to move to LA and be a second rate tenant in a new ballpark? Who will go to their games there? At least in San Diego they have a whole city behind them, buying their gear, Maybe I’m an idiot, but seems to me every NFL team doesn’t need a brand-new stadium.

Texans 22, Colts 17— Houston is tied for first with Titans in AFC South; they ran ball for 185 yards, had 3 takeaways (+2), kicked five FGs- usually when a team scores one TD and kicks five FGs, they lose. Colts are 1-4-1 vs spread this year in game following a win; some teams cannot stand prosperity. This is only second time Texans have won in Indy (2-13). Under is 5-2 in last seven Houston games, 4-0 in Colts’ last four home games.

Bengals 23, Browns 10— I’m still amazed that an NFL franchise is worth roughly $1B, give or take, and the Browns are being run by Jonah Hill’s character from Moneyball. Seriously, why would you have a guy who spent most of the last 15 years as a baseball executive run your NFL team? It makes zero bleeping sense. Cleveland is 1-5-1 vs spread as a home underdog, losing home games by 5-20-3-25-15-14-13 points

Steelers 27, Bills 20— Pittsburgh ran ball for 240 yards in the snow, amidst rumors that Rex Ryan is going to get fired. If Ryan and Jeff Fisher both get fired, then maybe their teams can hire coaches who actually care about offense and the league will put out a better product. Pittsburgh has now won/covered its last four games.

Non-football observation: if you’re going to be outside in a snowstorm for 3.5 hours, put on a goddamn coat. Rex Ryan wore same clothes for this game he wore in the LA Coliseum when the Bills played there. Even his brother wore a parka.

Dolphins 26, Cardinals 23— Game was played in a monsoon; Arizona’s kicker had an awful day, but did make a 56-yard FG. Miami kicked FG on last play to win, but they lost QB Tannehill to an ACL injury, so looks like Matt Moore gets to run the ball club the rest of the way- their #3 QB is former Western Kentucky QB Doughty. Arizona needs to draft a QB next spring; Carson Palmer is getting up there in years.

NFC West went 0-4 Sunday, turning ball over 15 times and 49ers didn’t have any turnovers.

Lions 20, Bears 17— Detroit is now 9-4 despite trailing in 4th quarter in 12 of 13 games. You know it might be the Lions’ year when Stafford throws a pick-6 to give Chicago a 17-13 lead with 7:07 left, but Detroit drives back down field to score game-winning TD with 3:17 left. Lions are 6-1 at home with four wins by exactly three points.

Pretty sure I’m going to be in Las Vegas when the NFL schedule comes out for 2017; first thing I’m going to do is bet the under on the Lions’ win total for next year.

Vikings 25, Jaguars 16— Minnesota ran ball 29 times for 85 yards (28 for 70 if you take out one Bradford scramble for 15 yards); they scored only 16 points on five red zone drives, but won anyway. Jaguars are 0-6 at home, have lost eight games in a row (2-6 vs spread). Vikings had been 2-6 this season when they didn’t score a TD on defense/special teams, now they’re 3-6.

Mike Zimmer coached this game with his right eye totally covered by tape; he is one tough human. He wore sunglasses when Minnesota had the ball, but took them off so he could read his defensive call charts when Jaguars had the ball. Lot of admiration for coach Zimmer.

Bucs 16, Saints 11— Sean Payton was yukking it up two weeks ago when he ran the score up on the sorry Rams, but since then his team scored a total of 24 points in losses to Detroit, Tampa Bay. New Orleans is 5-8 and going nowhere with an aging QB; they’re 0-6 when they score less than 25 points. Under is 5-2 in Saints’ last seven games, 2-0-1 in Bucs’ last three.

Tampa Bay has won five games in a row and is looking smart for drafting Jameis Winston.

Redskins 27, Eagles 22— Washington won last five meetings with Philly, with average total in last six series games, 53.8; Eagles scored one offensive TD on 17 drives in two games with Redskins this year. Over is 11-2 in Washington games this season.

Jets 23, 49ers 17 OT— Niners snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, blowing a 17-3 halftime lead, losing their 12th straight game. Bryce Petty gets his first NFL win. Weird that SF was favored in its last two games, despite being an awful team.

I’m wondering if the networks stopped showing Colin Kaepernick kneeling during the National Anthem because he said he didn’t vote on Election Day. Just curious, thats all.

Packers 38, Seahawks 10— Seattle has now lost their last seven visits here; they’re 1-4-1 this season when scoring less than 26 points. Somehow, Green Bay’s defense has revived itself, allowing 36 points in last three games, after allowing 153 points in the four games before that- they had six takeaways in this game. Seattle is 2-4-1 on the road and they’ve fallen out of the #2 slot in the NFC, so they might be going on the road in the second week of the playoffs.

Falcons 42, Rams 14— Observations from this game and with apologies to the Falcons, I’ve got nothing to say about them— picked them last week and they lost.

— Rams should fire their head coach today, just to save everyone three more weeks of aggravation.

— Last three weeks: L21-49, L10-26, L14-42. Unacceptable results. Sometimes divorce is a good thing— just ask my ex-wife (its a joke!!!)

— The next coach should a) be an offensive guru or b) hire an offensive guru to be OC and yes, I’m thinking of Norv Turner, if we go the OC way.

— Find the best offensive line coach in America and pay him a boatload of cash to come to LA.

— They can keep Gregg Williams and John Fassel; defense/special teams ain’t the problem.

— Here are some W-L records of how QBs did their rookie year: Elway 4-6, PManning 3-13, EManning 1-6, Aikman 0-11, Stafford 2-8, Marino 7-2. Playing QB in the NFL is a hard job.

— I pay more money than I should for DirecTV, for one reason; to watch NFL games on Sundays, specifically the Rams. 13 consecutive non-winning seasons is getting my money’s worth.

Giants 10, Cowboys 7— Dak Prescott grew up in Louisiana; wonder if he ever played in a frigid night game before? Dallas is 11-2 with two losses to the Giants by total of four points. If playoffs started tomorrow, NFC Wild Card game would be Bucs @ Giants. AFC would be either Miami/Denver @ Oakland. Last five Giant games stayed under the total.

**Udog** · 12-12-2016, 09:02 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, December 12

Jacksonville St @ Maryland

Game 521-522
December 12, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville St
52.718
Maryland
61.863
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Maryland
by 9
146
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Maryland
by 14
134 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville St
(+14); Over

South Carolina @ Seton Hall

Game 519-520
December 12, 2016 @

Dunkel Rating:
South Carolina
72.000
Seton Hall
65.929
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Carolina
by 6
127
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seton Hall
by 2
135 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
South Carolina
(+2); Under

Auburn @ Boston College

Game 517-518
December 12, 2016 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Auburn
61.716
Boston College
44.241
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Auburn
by 17 1/2
153
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 9 1/2
147
Dunkel Pick:
Auburn
(-9 1/2); Over

Pennsylvania @ UCF

Game 515-516
December 12, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pennsylvania
52.058
UCF
67..935
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UCF
by 16
124
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UCF
by 9
128 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UCF
(-9); Under

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, December 12

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PENNSYLVANIA (3 - 5) at UCF (7 - 1) - 12/12/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UCF is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UCF is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
UCF is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PENNSYLVANIA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in a road game where the total is 120 to 129.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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AUBURN (6 - 1) vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (4 - 5) - 12/12/2016, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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S CAROLINA (8 - 0) vs. SETON HALL (7 - 2) - 12/12/2016, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SETON HALL is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
SETON HALL is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE ST (5 - 5) at MARYLAND (10 - 1) - 12/12/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE ST is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points since 1997.
JACKSONVILLE ST is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road games since 1997.
JACKSONVILLE ST is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
JACKSONVILLE ST is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1997.
MARYLAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
MARYLAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MARYLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, December 12

Central Florida has #1 eFG% defense in country despite forcing 9th-least turnovers in country; why? Because they’ve got a 7-6 center who is pretty good. Opponents are shooting 34.4% inside the arc against UCF, which is 7-1, with only loss by 10 to Villanova on a neutral floor. Knights are without PG Taylor (thumb for couple weeks; they’re turning ball over 22% of time. Penn is 3-5 with best win over #286 Robert Morris; they’re 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 12-25-8 points. Ivy league road underdogs are 9-10 vs spread.

Auburn coach Pearl was once a basketball manager at Boston College; his Tigers are 7-1 with a 74-70 win at UAB in their only true road game. Auburn is forcing turnovers 24% of time (#12), they’re #319 in experience but #4 in bench minutes, so lot of guys are getting experience. BC is 4-5 with two losses to teams outside top 300; they’ve lost four of last five games. Eagles turn ball over 21.7% of time; they’re 1-3 vs top 200 teams, with one win by 10 over Towson State. This is Auburn’s first game since the UAB win nine days ago.

One of South Carolina’s key players (Thornwell) is still suspended here; Gamecocks are 8-0 vs schedule #240- they beat Syracuse in NYC in only game away from home this season. Carolina is forcing turnovers 23.7% of time; they’ve got #2 eFG% defense in country. Seton Hall was in Hawai’i last week, winning two games; Pirates are 2-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Florida by 5, Stanford by 14. Seton Hall starts four juniors who helped win Big East tournament last March, but Seton Hall is shooting only 60.9% on foul line.

Maryland is 10-1 but has three wins by a point, a 4th win in OT; Terrapins are 3-0 vs teams outside top 200, with wins by 6-14-23 points. Other than Trimble, Terrapins have a young team (#320 experience). Jacksonville State is improved under new coach Harper; they’re 5-5 with only one home game. Gamecocks lost by 19 at TCU in only top 100 games- they’re shooting 41.9% on arc, but turning ball over 21.5% of time. JSU won at Tulsa; three of their five losses are by 7 or less points.

NCAAB

Monday, December 12

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Trend Report
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6:30 PM
AUBURN vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
No trends available
Boston College is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games

7:00 PM
LONGWOOD vs. GEORGE MASON
No trends available
George Mason is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of George Mason's last 8 games

7:00 PM
BETHUNE-COOKMAN vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
No trends available
South Florida is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Florida's last 6 games

7:00 PM
PENNSYLVANIA vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
Pennsylvania is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Central Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Central Florida is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

7:00 PM
ALBANY vs. CANISIUS
No trends available
Canisius is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Canisius is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE STATE vs. MARYLAND
Jacksonville State is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Maryland's last 7 games at home
Maryland is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

8:00 PM
NORTH FLORIDA vs. TEXAS-PAN AMERICAN
No trends available
Texas-Pan American is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games

8:00 PM
BETHEL TN vs. MURRAY STATE
No trends available
Murray State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Murray State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
BLUE MOUNTAIN vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE
No trends available
Louisiana-Monroe is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Louisiana-Monroe is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

9:00 PM
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. SETON HALL
No trends available
Seton Hall is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Seton Hall is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

10:00 PM
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF vs. SEATTLE
No trends available
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:00 PM
ALABAMA STATE vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
No trends available
San Diego State is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
San Diego State is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home

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Announcement

Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/12

Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/12

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