Announcement

**Udog** · 11-10-2016, 07:23 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

College football trends for Week 10..……

— Underdogs covered last five NC State-Syracuse games.

— Auburn lost its last four visits to Georgia.

— Kentucky is 2-7 vs spread in its last nine games at Tennessee.

— Underdogs covered six of last eight Stanford-Oregon games.

— Michigan lost its last three visits to Iowa; Wolverines’ last win in Iowa City was in ’05.

— Underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in last 14 Oregon State-UCLA games.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: College basketball thoughts……..

Vacation is over; time for me to get back to work, with college basketball tipping off Friday night– ton of games. Here are some random preseason thoughts:

13) Blue Ribbon Magazine’s top 4 teams: Duke-Oregon-Kansas-Kentucky. They have defending champ Villanova at #5, Louisville at #8, Saint Mary’s all the way up at #17.

12) Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s have dominated the WCC so much that four of the other eight teams changed coaches last spring. Former NBA players Damon Stoudamire/Terry Porter are at Pacific/Portland, but Herb Sendek at Santa Clara is the best of the new WCC hires.

11) UNLV has almost a whole new team; they’ve had four head coaches in the last 10 months, but Marvin Menzies will do well there, eventually. Problem is, Rebels only had 3 or 4 players left by time he got the job- the work he did to re-stock the roster in the spring was impressive. Menzies can recruit, so as long as he avoids one/done-type kids, UNLV will be back soon.

10) Johnny Dawkins went from Stanford to Central Florida; his son transferred from Michigan to join him at UCF, Jerod Haase left behind a solid team at UAB to replace Dawkins at Stanford.

9) Mike Dunleavy Sr has coached 1,400 NBA games, but zero college games; he is the new coach at Tulane. Wonder if it’ll help his recruiting that his son is Lebron James’ teammate with the Cavaliers? Dunleavy Sr will do just fine on his own, but the AAC is pretty tough.

8) Jamie Dixon wasn’t feeling appreciated at Pitt, so he went back to his alma mater TCU, which has new facilities but has an uphill climb in the brutal Big X. Dixon has recruited his butt off so far and the Horned Frogs may be on the rise.

Kevin Stallings went 66-54 in SEC games the last few years at Vanderbilt, but the natives at Vandy got restless for more, so Stallings replaced Dixon at Pitt and Bryce Drew bolted Valparaiso and a likely Horizon League champ to become Vandy’s new coach.

7) Yale won the Ivy league LY for the first time since 1962, but their best returning player Makai Mason is already out for the year (foot). Mason had 31 against Baylor in the NCAAs.

Ivy League joined the 21st century and will have a 4-team conference tournament this year, so the upper half of the league in the regular season gets to play in the conference tournament.

6) UConn-Cincinnati-SMU are expected to be the best teams in the AAC. Tim Jankovich takes over at SMU for Larry Brown, who skipped town early, as usual. Jankovich is a very good coach so the Mustangs are OK.

5) NC State had a great recruiting year; their new 7-footer Omer Yurtseven from Europe isn’t eligible until Dec 15 but the Wolfpack will hold their own in the 15-team ACC. Josh Pastner has a total rebuild at Georgia Tech after leaving a toxic situation at Memphis. ACC is really tough; Pitino-Williams-Krzyzewski-Boeheim-Bennett, all in the same league and thats leaving out Larranaga and Mike Brey, who are also really good coaches.

4) It still bothers me that half the Big East is in western Ohio or further west, but Xavier is supposed to be really good this year, right behind defending national champ Villanova. I was in Las Vegas for the national title game LY; what a fun night that was, with the two 3-pointers hit in the last 0:10 changing the fortunes of various investors in the room. Good stuff. Curious to see how St John’s is in Chris Mullin’s second year at his alma mater.

3) Five different teams have won the Big Sky title in the last decade; 20 of the league’s top 30 scorers are back from LY. This is as good as the league has been in years, with so many really good returning players. North Dakota is supposed to challenge perennial kingpins Weber State and Montana for the conference championship.

2) For some bizarre reason, the Big 14 is having its conference tournament in Washington DC this year (I know, Maryland is in the league, but still….); the ACC is having its tournament in the Barclays Center in Brooklyn- there are no ACC teams in the NY/NJ area. The A-14 will have its tournament in Pittsburgh, which seems like a bad idea.

1— For me, there are three great Opening Days: baseball, NFL, college hoop. Good twinbill from Hawai’i on Friday; ESPN’s 24-hour marathon starts Monday night. Lot of games to watch, boxscores to look over, things to learn.

Order some pizzas and enjoy the games!!!

**Udog** · 11-10-2016, 07:30 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, November 10

LA Lakers @ Sacramento

Game 507-508
November 10, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
116.789
Sacramento
118.362
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Sacramento
by 1 1/2
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Sacramento
by 4 1/2
209
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(+4 1/2); Under

Golden State @ Denver

Game 505-506
November 10, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
131.510
Denver
115.644
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 16
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 6 1/2
221 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-6 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Miami

Game 503-504
November 10, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
116.636
Miami
123.248
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6 1/2
195
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 1 1/2
200
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-1 1/2); Under

New Orleans @ Milwaukee

Game 501-502
November 10, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
109.306
Milwaukee
119.267
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 10
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 4 1/2
208
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-4 1/2); Over

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, November 10

Bucks won last two games with New Orleans, after losing previous six; Pelicans are 3-2 in last five visits to Milwaukee. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games. New Orleans is 0-8, 1-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 19-8-10-6 points- over is 5-3 in their games. Bucks won three of last four games; over is 5-2 in their last seven. Milwaukee is 1-1 as a home favorite.

Dwyane Wade returns to Miami here with Bulls, who lost last four games (0-4 vs spread) with Miami; seven of last nine series games stayed under total. Chicago lost by 18-8 points in last two visits here. Bulls lost in Atlanta last nite, their 4th loss in last five games; Chicago is 1-3 on road, 0-3 as a road underdog- four of their last five games stayed under. Heat lost four of last five games; favorites covered all three of their home games.

Golden State won four of last five games with Denver, but Nuggets are 5-1 vs spread in last six series games. Last six series games went over the total. Warriors won six of last seven games after crushing Dallas last nite; they’re 1-3 as a road favorite, winning away games by 23-6-8 points. Over is 4-3 in their games this season. Denver lost four of last six games; they lost only home game by hoop in OT to Portland. Over is 5-3 in their games.

Sacramento beat the Lakers seven games in a row (5-1-1 vs spread); LA lost its last five visits to the state capital, losing by 3-18-10-7-5 points (over 3-1 in last four). Lakers won three of last four games; they’re 3-1 as a road underdog- four of their last five games went over. Sacramento won its last two games after a 1-5 start; three of their last four games stayed under. Kings are 2-0 as a home favorite.

NBA

Thursday, November 10

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Chicago is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

8:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MILWAUKEE
New Orleans is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games when playing Milwaukee
New Orleans is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Milwaukee is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against New Orleans

9:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. DENVER
Golden State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
Denver is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games

10:30 PM
LA LAKERS vs. SACRAMENTO
LA Lakers are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games on the road
LA Lakers are 7-18 SU in their last 25 games
Sacramento is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 6 games at home

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**Udog** · 11-10-2016, 08:57 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 10

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 8) at MILWAUKEE (4 - 3) - 11/10/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 38-51 ATS (-18.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 239-296 ATS (-86.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (4 - 4) at MIAMI (2 - 4) - 11/10/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 246-298 ATS (-81.8 Units) first half of the season since 1996.
CHICAGO is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 112-149 ATS (-51.9 Units) in November games since 1996.
MIAMI is 120-160 ATS (-56.0 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 5-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (6 - 2) at DENVER (3 - 4) - 11/10/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 118-92 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 108-83 ATS (+16.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 42-26 ATS (+13.4 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 63-45 ATS (+13.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 49-35 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 5-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 5-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (4 - 4) at SACRAMENTO (4 - 5) - 11/10/2016, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 5-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 7-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-10-2016, 11:51 AM

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, November 10

New Orleans at Milwaukee, 8:05 PM ET
New Orleans: 43-22 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses
Milwaukee: 7-20 ATS in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games

Chicago at Miami, 8:00 PM ET
Chicago: 2-13 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more
Miami: 14-4 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 200

Golden State at Denver, 9:05 PM ET
Golden State: 16-5 ATS after a game where they made 60% of their free throws or worse
Denver: 3-17 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games

LA Lakers at Sacramento, 10:30 PM ET
LA Lakers: 57-28 ATS in road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread
Sacramento: 8-20 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/10

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/10

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