The Bum's 2016 NCAA Basketball News-Trends-Picks !

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South Regional Snapshot
March 13, 2017

1 North Carolina vs. 16 Texas Southern
2 Kentucky vs. 15 Northern Kentucky
3 UCLA vs. 14 Kent State
4 Butler vs. 13 Winthrop
5 Minnesota vs. 12 Middle Tennessee
6 Cincinnati vs. 11 TBD
7 Dayton vs. 10 Wichita State
8 Arkansas vs. 9 Seton Hall

Odds to win South Regional - per Sportsbook.ag
North Carolina 7/5
Kentucky 2/1
UCLA 5/1
Butler 8/1
Wichita State 8/1
Cincinnati 12/1
Minnesota 40/1
Middle Tennessee State 40/1
Arkansas 50/1
Seton Hall 60/1
Dayton 80/1
Wake Forest 80/1
Kansas State 100/1
Winthrop 300/1
Kent State 1000/1
Northern Kentucky 2000/1
Texas Southern 3000/1

SOUTH REGIONAL STATS
Seed Team SU ATS Away Last 5 Last 10 O-PPG D-PPG FG% 3-PT% FT%
1 North Carolina 22-7 17-14 11-7 3-2 7-3 84.9 70.6 47.1 36.6 70.5
2 Kentucky 29-5 18-16 14-3 5-0 10-0 85.9 71.6 47.7 35.3 70.2
3 UCLA 29-4 16-17 13-3 4-1 9-1 90.4 75.3 51.9 40.5 74.5
4 Butler 23-8 17-12 10-5 3-2 5-5 76.3 68.4 47.8 36.3 74.0
5 Minnesota 24-9 19-12 7-6 3-2 8-2 75.3 69.1 43.5 34.5 70.7
6 Cincinnati 29-5 16-14-1 11-5 4-1 7-3 74.5 60.8 45.5 34.4 68.3
7 Dayton 24-7 19-10 9-6 3-2 8-2 76.5 66.5 47.0 38.7 68.9
8 Arkansas 25-9 17-15 10-6 3-2 8-2 79.8 74.0 46.1 36.4 76.2
9 Seton Hall 21-11 14-16-1 9-9 4-1 7-3 73.3 70.2 45.0 33.7 64.3
10 Wichita State 30-4 18-12-1 14-3 5-0 10-0 82.1 62.4 47.4 40.8 73.4
11 Kansas State 20-13 15-12-2 9-8 3-2 4-6 71.7 66.9 45.8 36.1 68.9
11 Wake Forest 19-13 16-14 8-10 4-1 6-4 82.7 77.9 47.2 38.7 77.3
12 Middle Tennessee State 30-4 23-10 17-2 5-0 10-0 75.0 63.3 49.0 36.8 69.8
13 Winthrop 26-6 3-4-1 13-3 5-0 9-1 79.7 70.2 45.7 37.3 72.0
14 Kent State 22-13 16-13-2 12-7 4-1 9-1 76.9 72.3 42.8 31.8 71.9
15 Northern Kentucky 24-10 20-9-1 15-8 5-0 9-1 76.1 71.4 45.9 35.3 67.6
16 Texas Southern 23-11 2-6 13-11 5-0 9-1 74.4 71.8 43.2 29.7 73.3

Favorite: North Carolina (22-7 SU, 17-14 ATS)
The Tar Heels fell short of an ACC tournament championship as UNC and Kansas are the only top-seeds that failed to receive an automatic bid to the Big Dance. North Carolina looks to avenge a championship loss at the buzzer to Villanova last April as the Tar Heels face Texas Southern in the opening round. Roy Williams’ team closed the season at 5-2 ATS in the final seven games, while posting a 9-6-1 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite this season. However, the Tar Heels have failed to cash in their tournament opening game the last three seasons, as they are laying 26 ½-points to the Tigers.

Underachiever: Dayton (24-7 SU, 19-10 ATS)
The Flyers hurt their seeding by losing in their Atlantic 10 tournament opener to Davidson, their second consecutive defeat. Dayton slipped to the seventh seed as the Flyers will face Wichita State, the champions of the Missouri Valley on Friday in Indianapolis. The Flyers are listed as six-point underdogs, as Dayton owns a 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS mark as a ‘dog this season.

Keep an Eye on: Middle Tennessee State (30-4 SU, 23-10 ATS)
The Blue Raiders made the biggest impact on brackets last season by upsetting second-seeded Michigan State in the opening round as 16 ½-point underdogs. Middle Tennessee State will try to capitalize off last March’s victory as the Blue Raiders posted 30 wins in the regular season and face Minnesota in the 5/12 contest on Thursday afternoon. MTSU closed the season with 10 consecutive victories and an 8-2 ATS mark, while owning a 2-1 ATS and 3-0 SU mark as an underdog.

Upset-Minded: Kent State (22-13 SU, 16-13-2 ATS)
The Golden Flashes knocked off favored Akron in the MAC championship to finish off an incredible 9-1 SU/ATS run the last 10 games. Kent faces UCLA in the opening round as a 17 ½-point underdog in Sacramento on Friday, as the Flashes have cashed in seven of their last nine opportunities in the ‘dog role. UCLA heads into this contest failing to cover in nine of its past 12 tries in the favorite role.

Double-Digit Favorites: North Carolina, Kentucky, UCLA, Butler
Kentucky cruised to an SEC championship by routing Arkansas on Sunday, 82-65, as the Wildcats face intra-state squad Northern Kentucky. The Norse is making their first NCAA tournament appearance after capturing the Horizon League title as NKU is a hefty 19 ½-point underdog. The Wildcats haven’t been successful covering large numbers in the tournament recently by going 2-5 ATS in their last seven March Madness contests.

Butler hasn’t been much of a factor in the NCAA tournament since back-to-back championship appearances in 2010 and 2011. The Bulldogs own a 3-3 record in the Big Dance since 2013 as Butler has won five straight tournament openers since 2010. Butler faces Big South champion Winthrop in the opener on Thursday afternoon as 11-point favorites, as the Bulldogs have put together a 3-7 ATS mark in its last 10 games as a favorite of seven points or more.

Easiest Travel: Minnesota (24-9 SU, 19-12 ATS)
The Golden Gophers put together one of the top turnarounds in college basketball this season by winning 24 games following an 8-23 campaign in 2016. Minnesota was rewarded by the committee by being sent to Milwaukee to face a tough Middle Tennessee State squad on Thursday. The Gophers have dropped two of three since an eight-game winning streak, but knocked off Maryland, Northwestern, and Purdue on the road during Big 10 play.

Toughest Travel: Cincinnati (29-5 SU, 16-14-1 ATS)
The Bearcats have to travel to the west coast for possibly their first two games in Sacramento. Cincinnati doesn’t even know its opponent yet as the Bearcats square off with either Wake Forest or Kansas State, as that winner will be determined on Tuesday. However, UC put together a solid 11-3 record outside of the state of Ohio this season, but has failed to cash in its last three opportunities as a favorite in the NCAA tournament.

Highest Total: UCLA/Kent State – 161 ½

Lowest Total: Minnesota/Middle Tennessee State – 136

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Midwest Regional Snapshot
March 13, 2017

1 Kansas vs. 16 TBD
2 Louisville vs. 15 Jacksonville State
3 Oregon vs. 14 Iona
4 Purdue vs. 13 Vermont
5 Iowa State vs. 12 Nevada
6 Creighton vs. 11 Rhode Island
7 Michigan vs. 10 Oklahoma State
8 Miami, Fl. vs. 9 Michigan State

Odds to win Midwest Regional - per Sportsbook.ag
Kansas 7/5
Louisville 3/1
Purdue 11/2
Iowa State 8/1
Oregon 5/1
Michigan 12/1
Oklahoma State 15/1
Creighton 30/1
Rhode Island 40/1
Miami, Fl. 50/1
Michigan State 60/1
Nevada 100/1
Vermont 200/1
Iona 500/1
Jacksonville State 1000/1
North Carolina Central 2000/1
UC Davis 5000/1

MIDWEST REGIONAL STATS
Seed Team SU ATS Away Last 5 Last 10 O-PPG D-PPG FG% 3-PT% FT%
1 Kansas 28-4 12-17-1 14-3 4-1 8-2 82.7 72.4 48.7 40.5 66.6
2 Louisville 24-8 17-12-1 8-7 2-3 6-4 77.5 65.8 45.6 35.9 68.5
3 Oregon 29-5 19-14 12-5 4-1 8-2 79.1 65 48.1 37.8 71.1
4 Purdue 25-7 17-11-1 10-5 3-2 8-2 80.1 67.2 48 40.6 76.4
5 Iowa State 23-10 18-12 11-7 4-1 9-1 80.9 72 46.9 40.2 69.8
6 Creighton 25-9 19-13 12-5 3-2 5-5 82.1 72.5 50.8 40 68.2
7 Michigan 24-11 16-16 9-8 5-0 8-2 74.8 65.5 48.3 38.1 77.5
8 Miami, Fl. 21-11 11-19 7-9 2-3 6-4 69.4 63.7 45.3 35.9 71.8
9 Michigan State 19-14 17-15 5-12 2-3 5-5 71.7 68.4 46.8 37.6 66.3
10 Oklahoma State 20-12 16-11 9-7 2-3 6-4 85.5 78 46.4 40.1 78.7
11 Rhode Island 24-9 18-14 11-6 5-0 8-2 73.4 64.9 45.2 33.9 65.7
12 Nevada 28-6 23-11 15-5 5-0 9-1 80 70.9 45 38.5 70.3
13 Vermont 29-5 4-4 13-4 5-0 10-0 73.6 61.6 49.6 36.9 70.2
14 Iona 22-12 14-16-2 14-8 4-1 6-4 80.5 76.4 45.5 39.7 77
15 Jacksonville State 20-14 17-12 15-9 4-1 7-3 69.7 67.6 45.7 37.2 71.2
16 UC Davis 22-12 17-12-1 11-12 4-1 8-2 70.5 68.9 43.7 35.4 66.5
16 North Carolina Central 25-8 6-0 14-6 3-2 8-2 75.1 63.4 45.7 34 68.1

Favorite: Kansas (28-4 SU, 12-17-1 ATS)
For the third time in four years, Kansas failed to capture the Big 12 tournament championship after losing its quarterfinal game against TCU. The Jayhawks still picked up a top regional seed for the third time in five seasons as Kansas has the luxury of playing in nearby Tulsa for the first two games, then potentially in Kansas City for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. KU squares off with the winner of North Carolina Central and New Orleans on Friday as Bill Self’s team has won its last three tournament openers by double-digits.

Underachiever: Michigan State (19-14 SU, 17-15 ATS)
The Spartans started out of the gate at 4-4 this season, in spite of those losses coming to Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor, and Duke. Michigan State was knocked out in the opening round of the tournament last season in surprising fashion as a second seed against upstart Middle Tennessee State as the Spartans draw Miami on Friday. Tom Izzo’s club dropped three of their final four games, while losing eight of their last 10 contests played away from East Lansing.

Keep an Eye on: Iowa State (23-10 SU, 18-12 ATS)
The Cyclones rolled to a Big 12 tournament title for the third time in four seasons, as Iowa State locked up a fifth seed. ISU was shocked as a third seed in 2015 by UAB as 14-point favorites in a 60-59 defeat in the opening round, but the Cyclones reached the Sweet 16 last season before bowing out to Virginia in a 13-point loss. The Cyclones take on Mountain West champion Nevada in the opening round in Milwaukee on Thursday as ISU is a six-point favorite. Iowa State has won eight of its past 10 games in the favorite role, while Nevada has covered nine consecutive contests.

Upset-Minded: Vermont (29-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
The Catamounts are riding a 21-game winning streak since losing at Butler, 81-69 in late December. Vermont faces another Hoosier State squad in the opening round when it faces Big 10 regular season champion Purdue on Thursday. The Catamounts are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2012, as Vermont won its play-in game before getting blown out by North Carolina.

Double-Digit Favorites: Kansas, Louisville, Oregon
Although the Jayhawks don’t know their opponent yet for their opener, KU is expected to be a hefty favorite. Louisville heads to Indianapolis to face Jacksonville State out of the Ohio Valley on Friday as 19 ½-point favorites. The second-seeded Cardinals head into this matchup at 2-7 ATS the last nine games overall, including a 1-2 ATS mark as a nine-point favorite or higher. Louisville is back in the tournament for the first time since 2015, but the Cardinals have failed to cash in their last two tourney openers.

Oregon fell short of capturing the Pac-12 tournament title in a three-point loss to Arizona, but the Ducks were rewarded with a third seed and will face Iona. The Ducks travel down the coast to Sacramento as 14 ½-point favorites against the Gaels. Oregon has won and covered four straight first round tournament games since 2013.

Easiest Travel: Purdue (25-7 SU, 17-11 ATS)
The Boilermakers lost early in the Big 10 tournament to Michigan in overtime, but Purdue won’t have to travel very far for the opening weekend by heading to Milwaukee. Purdue squares off with 13th-seeded Vermont out of the America East, as the Boilermakers are looking to advance to the second round of the tournament for the first time since 2012.

Toughest Travel: Iona (22-12 SU, 14-16-2 ATS)
The Gaels are back in the NCAA tournament for the second straight year, but Iona travels cross-country to face Oregon at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. To make matters worse, the game tips off at 11 a.m. local time, the second straight year that Iona will draw an early tip out west as it played Iowa State at noon local time in Denver last March and lost, 94-81.

Highest Total: Iowa State/Nevada – 154 ½

Lowest Total: Louisville/Jacksonville State – 134

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East Regional Snapshot
March 13, 2017

1 Villanova vs. 16 TBD
2 Duke vs. 15 Troy
3 Baylor vs. 14 New Mexico State
4 Florida vs. 13 East Tennessee State
5 Virginia vs. 12 UNC Wilmington
6 SMU vs. 11 TBD
7 South Carolina vs. 10 Marquette
8 Wisconsin vs. 9 Virginia Tech

Odds to win East Regional - per Sportsbook.ag
Villanova 3/2
Duke 2/1
Virginia 8/1
SMU 8/1
Baylor 8/1
Florida 8/1
Wisconsin 15/1
South Carolina 30/1
Marquette 40/1
Virginia Tech 80/1
USC 80/1
Providence 100/1
UNC-Wilmington 100/1
East Tennessee State 200/1
New Mexico State 500/1
Troy 500/1
Mount St. Mary's 3000/1
New Orleans 3000/1

EAST REGIONAL STATS
Seed Team SU ATS Away Last 5 Last 10 O-PPG D-PPG FG% 3-PT% FT%
1 Villanova 31-3 18-15 17-2 5-0 9-1 77.7 62.8 49.7 37.0 79.4
2 Duke 27-8 15-18-1 12-7 4-1 7-3 80.7 69.8 47.7 37.5 75.8
3 Baylor 25-7 14-13 10-5 3-2 5-5 72.7 62.7 47.1 35.9 71.7
4 Florida 24-8 17-13 15-7 2-3 7-3 78.3 66.6 45.0 36.2 72.6
5 Virginia 22-10 18-12 10-6 4-1 5-5 66.6 55.6 46.4 39.3 70.8
6 SMU 30-4 22-6-1 11-4 5-0 10-0 74.5 59.8 47.4 40.6 69.5
7 South Carolina 22-10 11-16-2 7-7 2-3 4-6 72.1 64.5 41.5 33.9 69.1
8 Wisconsin 25-9 15-16 10-7 3-2 4-6 71.9 61.4 45.2 35.6 64.4
9 Virginia Tech 22-10 16-11-1 7-8 3-2 6-4 79.2 74.4 49.0 40.3 73.4
10 Marquette 19-12 16-15 5-9 3-2 5-5 82.5 75.0 48.7 43.0 77.9
11 USC 24-9 16-16 10-6 3-2 5-5 78.7 73.2 45.4 36.3 73.9
11 Providence 20-12 20-12 5-9 4-1 7-3 70.2 66.6 44.7 36.8 69.1
12 UNC-Wilmington 29-5 14-15-1 16-4 5-0 9-1 85.2 74.9 48.2 36.6 69.2
13 East Tennessee State 27-7 17-13-1 14-5 4-1 9-1 79.9 69.4 49.1 38.3 70.4
14 New Mexico State 28-5 3-2 11-4 5-0 7-3 78.9 67.2 46.8 33.7 71.2
15 Troy 22-14 20-12 12-10 5-0 8-2 78.4 71.7 45.7 36.3 72.3
16 Mount St. Mary's 19-15 3-3 8-11 4-1 8-2 68.3 68.6 44.4 35.7 67.5
16 New Orleans 20-11 2-1 9-8 3-2 8-2 73.1 69.3 47.1 32.2 71.2

Favorite: Villanova (31-3 SU, 18-15 ATS)
The Wildcats are seeking their second consecutive championship after knocking off North Carolina at the buzzer to win the 2016 title. Villanova lost two of its top players from last year’s squad, but Jay Wright’s squad didn’t skip a beat by finishing non-conference play undefeated and capturing the Big East tournament title. Villanova will face the winner of Mount St. Mary’s and New Orleans on Thursday as the Wildcats covered in all six tournament victories last season.

Underachiever: Wisconsin (25-9 SU, 15-16 ATS)
The Badgers finished the regular season with the second-best record in the Big 10, but Wisconsin lost six of its final 10 games down the stretch. UW fell in the Big 10 title game to red-hot Michigan, as the Badgers dropped all the way to an eighth seed, where they will face Virginia Tech on Thursday night. The Badgers reached the championship game two seasons ago, but were knocked out in the Sweet 16 last season by Notre Dame following a pair of close victories over Pittsburgh and Xavier.

Keep an Eye on: SMU (30-4 SU, 22-6-1 ATS)
The Mustangs missed out on the NCAA tournament last season due to probation, but SMU is ready to make a run towards the Final Four. SMU captured the American Athletic Conference tournament title by beating Cincinnati to avenge an earlier loss and extend their winning streak to 16 games. The Mustangs will draw the winner of USC and Providence on Friday as SMU owns a remarkable 13-2-1 ATS record during this hot streak with the two ATS losses coming as a favorite of 19 points or more.

Upset-Minded: UNC-Wilmington (29-5 SU, 14-15-1 ATS)
The 12th-seeded Seahawks closed the season by winning nine of its final 10 games to grab the Colonial title for its second straight tournament appearance. Last season, UNCW fell short against Duke in the opening round of the tourney, but covered as 10-point underdogs. The Seahawks draw another ACC foe in Virginia, who suffered a four-game losing streak in February before winning four of their final five contests. Wilmington is listed as an underdog for only the third time this season (+8 ½), as the Seahawks lost at Clemson in December as nine-point ‘dogs, but beat St. Bonaventure as 3 ½-point ‘dogs.

Double-Digit Favorites: Duke, Baylor, and Florida
Villanova will likely be the largest favorite once their opponent is determined, but there is still plenty of wood laid in three other matchups. Duke opened as 19-point favorites against Sun Belt champion Troy, as the Blue Devils covered all four games in its road to winning the ACC tournament championship. The Blue Devils put together a 5-10 ATS record as a double-digit favorite this season, including five straight non-covers when laying at least 10 points.

Baylor tips off on Friday in Tulsa against WAC champion New Mexico State as the Bears are laying 12 points. The Bears have been knocked out of the first round in each of the past two tournaments by losing to Yale and Georgia State in the favorite role. Scott Drew’s club struggled to cover heavy numbers this season by posting a 1-4 ATS mark when laying at least 10 points.

Easiest Travel: Florida and South Carolina
The tournament committee does it best to keep the first two rounds as regionalized as possible but the Gators and Gamecocks received terrific travel draws. Florida makes the short trip from Gainesville to Orlando to face East Tennessee State out of the Southern Conference on Thursday. The Gators are making their first tournament appearance since reaching the Final Four in 2014 before falling to eventual champion UConn.

The Gamecocks are back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2004 as they seek their first tournament win since 1973. South Carolina makes the 90-minute drive from Columbia to Greenville to face Marquette in the late tip-off on Friday night. However, the Gamecocks weren’t sharp down the stretch by losing five of their last seven games, with four of those defeats coming away from Columbia.

Toughest Travel: Marquette (19-12 SU, 16-15 ATS)
It seems like a road game for the Eagles, who face South Carolina in Greenville. Marquette failed to win a game in the Big East tournament after losing to Seton Hall, while owning a 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS record in its last seven games as an underdog away from Milwaukee. The Eagles picked up a road victory against an SEC squad earlier this season by winning at Georgia in December as three-point underdogs, 89-79.

Highest Total: Duke/Troy - 153

Lowest Total: Baylor/New Mexico State – 135 ½

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Best & Worst NCAA Draws
March 13, 2017

Handicapping Locations

Dissecting the bracket and the decisions of the selection committee is certainly a fun topic Monday morning.

Here is a quick early reaction look at some of the favorable and unfavorable draws in the bracket. Neither is indicative of ultimate success in the tournament but some teams seem to have been dealt better paths than others.

Worst Draws

Kentucky (#2 South): Kentucky’s case to be seeded as a #1 isn’t a strong one even with a long winning streak to claim the SEC regular season and tournament titles. However they did beat the North Carolina team that wound up as the #1 seed in the South region where the Wildcats were placed. The coinciding 7-10 matchup in Indianapolis is certainly a scary one for the Wildcats with Wichita State lurking as a very dangerous team as a #10 seed. Recall that in the 2014 tournament it was a #8 seeded Kentucky team that knocked off the then 35-0 Shockers in the Round of the 32. Wichita State has tournament wins over Kansas and Arizona the past two years and they won’t be intimidated by the matchup should the Shockers get by a Dayton squad playing very close to home. If Kentucky advances to the Sweet 16 they could see a very dangerous UCLA squad that won in Lexington in December and they would potentially have to beat North Carolina again to get to the Final Four in a loaded South region.

Virginia (#5 East): The Cavaliers have fallen short of expectations in several recent NCAA Tournaments as a highly seeded team and it will be an uphill battle to have much more success this season with more modest seeding and a challenging path. UNC-Wilmington was the projected #12 seed that no one wanted to see and while the great contrast in pace with Virginia could favor the slower Cavaliers it is still a difficult matchup for a Virginia squad that closed the season going 6-7 with great inconsistency after a 16-3 start. Given that the team that Virginia tied with for fifth place in the ACC just got a favorable #2 seed while a Louisville team Virginia beat twice also got a #2 seed it is a tough placement with not all that much separation between the top teams in the ACC this season. Should the Cavaliers get by the Round of 64 upset threat they’ll draw a Florida team that also looks deserving of stronger seeding and that game would be a two-hour drive from Gainesville in Orlando. Win that game and the defending national champion and overall #1 seed Villanova is likely to be waiting for the Cavaliers in a brutally tough path as Tony Bennett seems unlikely to improve on his marginal Big Dance track record.

Notre Dame (#5 West): The Irish were a tough luck loser in a very tight ACC Championship game Saturday night and while Duke was rewarded with one of the best draws in the tournament by winning that coin-flip game, Notre Dame is in a challenging spot. The Ivy League has a few recent upsets under its belt including Yale beating Baylor last season and Princeton completed a perfect season in the league looking like one of the top contenders out of the conference in recent years even with a scare in the new Ivy League tournament. Should the Irish survive that game a very tough West Virginia squad that was in the Big XII championship game is likely to be up next though the Mountaineers have a difficult first round test with Bucknell. Notre Dame is also heading to Buffalo to play Thursday, losing out on preferable venues in Milwaukee or Indianapolis and playing reasonably close to Princeton’s home base, not to mention facing some potential travel headaches with the weather and drawing an early daytime time slot. Should the Irish get to the Sweet 16 they will get sent to the west coast in San Jose to possibly play top seeded Gonzaga as another Elite 8 run would require some impressive wins.

SMU (#6 East): Despite complete dominance in the AAC the lack of standout non-conference wins buried a SMU squad that more than passes the eye test into just a #6 seed. Tulsa is a good location draw for the Mustangs but they are stuck facing a First Four winner in the Tuesday matchup between USC and Providence. Both are capable teams and USC actually beat SMU early in the season, a win that is likely the primary reason the Trojans barely snuck into the field. In a fairly unprecedented situation the winner of that matchup will get two days off before a Friday game unlike in past seasons where the Tuesday winner typically played Thursday, certainly a big break for the winner of that game with the hectic travel to get to Dayton for Tuesday’s game. Baylor isn’t the most daunting of #3 seeds in this grouping but Duke is certainly a formidable #2 seed in the bottom portion of the East region if SMU is hoping to make a deep run and that potential game would be on the east coast in New York City when the Mustangs certainly would have preferred a path through Kansas City or Memphis. Adding insult to the seeding is that the Cincinnati squad SMU bested twice in the last month also got a #6 seed.

Wisconsin (#8 East): The Badgers have won more NCAA Tournament games over the past three seasons (11) than any team in the country and were almost universally projected to be on the 6-seed line prior to the Big Ten Championship game. In past years that late start game on Selection Sunday has had little to no impact on the Selection Committee’s decisions. It seems this year the committee might have made a last minute swaps among Big Ten teams with Michigan taking the title as Wisconsin fell all the way to a #8 seed. To make matters worse they’ll leave town in the middle of a snowstorm in the Midwest only to head into a snowstorm in Buffalo with a short turnaround for a late Thursday night game. Virginia Tech isn’t necessarily the most daunting matchup but a veteran team that can certainly get a minor upset and Hokies coach Buzz Williams has plenty of familiarity with Wisconsin from his days at Marquette. If the Badgers hope to make it six Sweet 16 trips in seven seasons they’ll only have to beat the defending national champions in Villanova, the committee’s overall #1 seed. Wisconsin’s resume deserved scrutiny after what looked like a decent set of non-conference wins regressed in value as the season went on and it appears the team was penalized heavily for losing five of the final seven regular season games. However considering where Minnesota (#5) and Maryland (#6) were seeded, Wisconsin certainly has a valid gripe with this placement, going 3-0 vs. those two teams that they finished ahead of in the Big Ten standings.

Oklahoma State (#10 Midwest): The Cowboys were a slight favorite when they faced the eventual Big XII tournament champion Iowa State in Kansas City last Thursday. While the Cyclones deserve credit for winning that game and a great title run, Iowa State is a #5 seed while Oklahoma State is a #10 despite profiles that don’t look too far apart aside from two recent head-to-head losses for the Cowboys. Not only is Oklahoma State a double-digit seed but they draw a dangerous Michigan squad that just rolled through the Big Ten tournament and the game is a very reasonable drive south from Ann Arbor in Indianapolis as well. Win that game and a date with Louisville is likely waiting with the Cardinals a difficult potential matchup with the reckless pace of the Cowboys and Louisville’s size and ability to create turnovers with its defensive pressure. The committee’s lack of respect for Wichita State hurt Oklahoma State as a 17-point win in Wichita should have counted as a high quality win for the Cowboys and ultimately going 0-7 vs. Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor was hard to overlook for a team that probably deserved to be placed a big higher.

Best Draws

Duke (#2 East): The Blue Devils had an amazing run in the ACC Tournament but recall that Duke had to play four games in four days because four teams finished ahead of them in the ACC standings. This seeding is essentially calling Duke one of the top eight teams in the country despite the Blue Devils finishing in a tie for fifth place in their own conference. Clearly the committee heavily discounted the losses Duke took without Coach K but the non-conference resume really wasn’t all that appealing with the win over Florida being the only top 30 win as this is a generous seeding for a team that is talent rich but still was losers of eight games including two against non-tournament teams. Before last week’s great run in Brooklyn Duke lost in three of the final four games of the regular season and that was with Coach K back as the Blue Devils weren’t penalized for a late season slide like many other teams in the field seem to have been. This is a great draw with a pair of presumed bubble teams South Carolina and Marquette fairly unthreatening in the 7/10 pairing and Baylor looking like the weakest of the #3 seeds in the bottom half of the East bracket. Duke won’t be playing in its home state this season but they are less than a four-hour drive from Greenville and while South Carolina would have a venue advantage in a potential Round of 32 matchup and despite finishing sixth in the Sun Belt Troy is the best of the #15 seeds but all things considered this is a great draw for Duke who opens the tournament as Las Vegas favorite to win it all.

Florida State (#3 West): If Florida State wants to make it to the Final Four they’ll have to do it on the west coast but they get their opening pod games in Orlando with a #3 seed which looks generous relative to ACC peers Notre Dame and Virginia who were both saddled with difficult #5 draws despite reasonably similar regular season results in the ACC. Non-conference wins over Florida and Minnesota pulled some weight for the Seminoles who closed the season on just a 7-6 run including losing three games to teams that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament field and losing to Notre Dame twice, the team that got a #5 seed and was seconds away from winning the ACC Tournament title. Add that the 6/11 pairing in Orlando features an incredibly over-seeded Maryland team as well as a Xavier team that really struggled down the stretch after losing one of its best players and this is a great draw for the Seminoles to have a great run. #14 seed Florida Gulf Coast is perhaps the most dangerous of the #14 seeds and they will also be close to home and up for the opportunity against a Sunshine State power but it is still a minor hurdle in a great big picture draw.

Butler (#4 South): It’s true that Butler was the clear #2 team in the Big East but behind Villanova it was a pretty tight pack most of the season in the conference. Butler gets a great draw in nearby Milwaukee while opposing a suspect #5 seed in Minnesota, who just lost a starter to injury in the Big Ten tournament. Middle Tennessee State and Winthrop are certainly two of the more viable #12 and #13 seeds for upset runs so this isn’t a completely safe pull for a Bulldogs team on a 5-5 run the last 10 games but all things considered this is a pretty good landing spot for a team that will get a lot of attention as a Final Four sleeper. The South bracket has three marquee top seeds in North Carolina, Kentucky, and UCLA as a Final Four run will require some big wins but this program has made its reputation being a giant-killer and has a win over Arizona and a pair of wins over Villanova this season as they will welcome that challenge. With the South regional semifinal and final games in Memphis Butler is a reasonably 450 miles from home as they should have decent support.

Iowa State (#5 Midwest): The Cyclones have a tricky first game but getting the relatively nearby Milwaukee draw is favorable for a #5 seed and looking at where the rest of the Big XII landed Iowa State is in a decent spot. Purdue has been rather inconsistent and a different team away from home in what could be a great Round of 32 matchup in the Midwest. A a potential Sweet 16 matchup with rival Kansas who the Cyclones played great against in two meetings this season has to be appealing for the Cyclones as well. That game would be in Kansas City in a favorable venue for both teams as a veteran Cyclones team is a threat for a deep run after claiming the Big XII Tournament crown for the third time in four years. Nevada looks like a semi-dangerous first round foe as the modest favorite spread suggests but forcing a west coast squad but the Wolf Pack face a long trip though with a late night time slot. Iowa State’s #5 draw looks pretty favorable as Purdue looks like the weakest #4 seed and this is likely a preferable position compared with where conference rivals with similar resumes West Virginia and Oklahoma State landed.

South Carolina (#7 East): The selection committee punished several teams for late season slides but a 3-6 run to close the season including three losses to teams outside the top 50 seemed to go unnoticed for a South Carolina team that many felt were right on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Michigan’s great late run helped the cause as that was a non-conference win for the Gamecocks back in November and other than a narrow home win over Florida there isn’t much weight on the resume. South Carolina not only gets a pretty favorable #7 seed they get to play in their home state just 100 miles away in Greenville. They also draw a Marquette team that will likely have trouble adjusting to the great contrast in pace that the Gamecocks will present as an elite defensive team. South Carolina has a reasonable shot to advance and get a big opportunity vs. Duke, another matchup where the Gamecocks could have some potential for an upset with a big edge on defense. If the Gamecocks continue to play like they did most of February it won’t matter but Frank Martin’s squad has to be thrilled to not only be in the field but playing about as close to home as anyone with great seeding.

Xavier (#11 West): In the final eight games of the Big East season Xavier only beat lowly DePaul, falling from Big East contender to a NCAA Tournament bubble team. The injury to point guard Edmond Sumner has forced a pair of freshmen into significant action for the Musketeers who did manage to upset Butler in the Big East tournament. That apparently was enough to not only get Xavier into the Big Dance but they also avoided the #11 First Four matchups where conference rival Providence landed while also avoiding a 8/9 matchup with a #1 seed lurking which is where Seton Hall landed from the Big East, with both of those teams beating Xavier in February. Xavier also pulls Maryland as the #6 seed in the pod in a Round of 64 matchup and has opened as just a 2-point underdog in a very winnable matchup despite the contrast in seeding. A potential matchup with Florida State in Orlando won’t be a picnic but Xavier went 2-0 vs. ACC teams in non-conference action and given the alternative landing spots for a team that barely made the field, the Musketeers have a great shot to at least match last season’s tournament result when they were a #2 seed and lost in the Round of 32.

[StarDust Bum]

Future Analysis
March 13, 2017

NCAA Tournament Futures Odds

Now that the 2017 March Madness bracket has been released, college basketball bettors and fans around the world are on the clock to break down with collegiate programs they believe will make a deep run in the tournament.

It's a pretty stacked field at the top with many programs having the talent to go all the way and for those of you considering futures wagers for either Region winners of the entire tournament winner, it's teams that are seeded 1-4 that you should really do your homework on.

Historically it's been the top seeds that tend to be the best future bets in this tournament – despite the NCAA Tournament being known for crazy upsets along the way – so let's look at some of the better future wagers that are currently offered at Sportsbook.ag

Sportsbook.ag NCAA Tournament Futures Favorites:

Duke (+600), North Carolina (+600), Kansas (+800), Kentucky (+850), Villanova (+850), Arizona (+900), Gonzaga (+1000), UCLA (+1200), Louisville (+1400)

The teams listed above are the only ones below +2500 at Sportsbook.ag and while other teams may receive plenty of support, it's this list of teams (and a few others) that you should begin to focus on. I say that because historically speaking, it's the programs that are seeded 1 through 4 that routinely cut down the nets in this event.

Since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams back in the mid-1980's not once has a team seeded higher than #8 have cut down the nets at the end of it. Going even further, during that same span only three NCAA Tournament champions have been seeded #5 through #8 with the rest of them being seeded #4 or lower.

Seeing Wichita State (+8500) as a #10 seed could through a wrinkle into that this year as they should have not been seeded that high, but for the best chance of success, it's best to stick to the programs that are either a #1, #2, #3, or #4 in each region to go all the way. Nine of those teams are listed above, but others like Oregon (+2500), Florida (+3000), Florida State (+3000), Purdue (+3000), Baylor (+5000), West Virginia (+3500), and Butler (+5500) should be added to that list.

History suggests it will be one of those 16 teams that are the ones to cut down the nets in early April and although upsets in this tournament tend to dominate the headlines in the early rounds, when push comes to shove at the end, superior talent wins out.

As far as which program(s) you should put your money on for future wagers, that is up to you and what stats, advanced metrics and other indicators you value highly favor a certain program. Rebounding margin tends to be a big one in the NCAA Tournament for obvious reasons (extra shots offensively and minimal shots against defensively) and it's North Carolina (+12.1 RM) that leads the country in that regard.

SMU, St Mary's and Wichita State (again) would be the next in that category but not one of those teams falls in the 1-4 seeding range which could be an issue. Finally as something to consider with defending champion Villanova, they rank 40th in the country in rebounding margin (4.6 RM) and that's rather low for a #1 overall seed.

The Pac-12 has three teams in that list of 16 seeded 1 through 4 (UCLA, Arizona, Oregon) and any one of those schools would love to be the one to break the conference's Final Four drought. It's been nine years since a Pac-12 team reached a Final Four but this might be the year that streak gets snapped.

Oregon's chances took a big hit when shot-blocker extraordinaire Chris Boucher tore his ACL in the Pac-12 tournament, but they are still a very talented team that could surprise many. UCLA is arguably the best offensive team in the entire field and Arizona is no slouch either having beaten both of the other two programs en route to a Pac-12 Tournament title.

Finally, as far as picks to win it all go from our end, it's tough not to like Duke (+600) to come out of the East Region, Arizona (+900) out of the West Region, Kansas (+800) out of the Midwest, and UCLA (+1200) out of the South. Getting action down on those four programs to win it all should see you have at least one of your wagers live by the time we reach the Final Four.

[StarDust Bum]

Bracket Analysis
March 12, 2017

This is our favorite column of the year that we drop every Selection Sunday.

It’s called Bracket Analysis. Let’s do it!

The four No. 1 seeds are Gonzaga (West Region), Kansas (Midwest), Villanova (East) and North Carolina (South). The picks of the Bulldogs, Jayhawks and Wildcats were no-brainers, but some felt that Arizona and Duke had cases to be ahead of the Tar Heels, who lost to Duke twice, including Saturday’s setback in the ACC Tournament semifinals. Meanwhile, Sean Miller’s team beat Oregon on Saturday night to win the Pac-12 Tournament.

Speaking of the Ducks, they lost starting center Chris Boucher to a torn ACL in Las Vegas this past weekend. That fact prompted the Selection Committee to drop Oregon to a No. 3 seed when it was probably slated for a No. 2 seed before the injury. Boucher was averaging 11.8 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.

Villanova is a top seed for the third time in school history. The Wildcats are looking to repeat as national champions after winning both the Big East regular-season title and the league tournament at MSG in NYC. They’ll get the Wisconsin-Va. Tech winner in the Round of 32, assuming they don’t become the first No. 1 seed to ever fall against a 16 seed.

Jay Wright’s team has these potential foes in the Sweet 16: fourth-seeded Florida, fifth-seeded Virginia, 12-seed UNC-Wilmington or 13th East Tennessee State. The Buccaneers won at Mississippi State and lost by four at Tennessee. They lost by nine at UNC-Wilmington and by 14 at Dayton.

The Gators will certainly have fresh legs after getting beaten by Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. They’ll only have to travel 90 minutes to Orlando, the same city where their Final Four run started in the 2014 NCAA Tournament. I think UF will get past the UVA-UNC-W winner, which could certainly be the Seahawks.

That would provide us with a Villanova-Florida showdown in the East Region semifinals at MSG. These teams met in the 2005 and 2006 NCAA Tournaments. The Wildcats won a 76-65 decision in the Round of 32 in ’05, but the Gators exacted revenge in the ’06 Elite Eight by capturing a 75-62 victory on their way to the school’s first national title.

The other portion of the East Region features No. 2 seed Duke, which is fresh off of Saturday’s win over Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament finals. The Blue Devils face the Troy Trojans, who beat Texas State. 59-53 in the Sun Belt Tournament finals. Mike Krzyzewski’s team would face the Marquette-South Carolina survivor if it knocks off Troy.

I think sixth-seeded SMU will make the Sweet 16 by beating Baylor to set up at date with Duke in NYC. I see form holding in the East with Villanova facing Duke in what will be an epic showdown at the best venue possible.

Let’s turn to the Midwest, where Kansas will face the Miami-Michigan State winner. Like Florida, Bill Self’s team will have fresh legs after its Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals loss to TCU. The Jayhawks were playing without one of their best players, freshman sensation Josh Jackson, who was serving a one-game suspension in the loss to Horned Frogs.

If KU gets to the Sweet 16, possible foes include Purdue (4), Vermont (13), Iowa State (5) and Nevada (12). The Cyclones, who won the Big 12 Tournament by dusting West Virginia in Saturday’s finals in Kansas City, are absolutely on fire. They’ve won nine of their last 10 games while going 8-2 ATS. I think ISU gets to the Sweet 16 where it will meet the Jayhawks, who won 76-72 in Ames but lost to the Cyclones at Allen Fieldhouse by a 92-89 count.

Watch out for a potential upset of Purdue by the Catamounts, who own the nation’s longest winning streak. Vermont, the America East champion, haven’t tasted defeat since Dec. 21 in an 81-69 loss at Butler.

The lower part of the Midwest features a dandy of a 7/10 matchup with Michigan taking on Oklahoma State. The Wolverines were the best story of the weekend. The team plane skidded off the runway at the Detroit airport as it was taking off for the Big Ten Tournament in Washington D.C. The terrifying incident left Michigan to catch a flight the next morning at 6:00 a.m. on the day it was playing Illinois.

John Beilein’s team won four games in four days to win the Big Ten Tourney, including scalps of Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The Wolverines smoked the Badgers 71-56 in Sunday’s finals. They’ll face the Cowboys on Friday in Indianapolis.

Brad Underwood’s team finished strong down the stretch and has a star in Jawun Evans. Also, Oklahoma State has the nation’s best free-throw shooter (Phil Forte) and outstanding players in Jeffrey Carroll and Leyton Hammonds.

The OSU-Michigan winner will likely face second-seeded Louisville, which takes on Jacksonville State. The Cardinals are certainly in danger of getting sent home in the Round of 32.

Now to the South Region, where North Carolina will take on Arkansas or Seton Hall in Greenville. I see the Tar Heels easily advancing to the Sweet 16, where I believe they’ll meet Butler in Memphis.

Memphis could have an influx of bluebloods in two weeks. There’s a strong chance Kentucky, the No. 2 seed, and UCLA, the third seed, will join UNC at FedEx Forum. If the UK-UCLA South Region semifinal matchup materializes (I say it will), it would be a rematch of an early December game when the Bruins went into Rupp Arena as double-digit underdogs and beat UK by a 97-92 count.

I was in Memphis for the South Region semifinals and finals three years ago when Florida beat Dayton in the Elite Eight. The Flyers, the South’s No. 7 seed, could get back to Memphis again with wins over Wichita State and UK (presumably). UCLA was also in Memphis that year, losing to UF in the Sweet 16. The Bruins hope to return with wins over Kent State and, in my opinion, Cincinnati.

If Gregg Marshall’s Shockers can get past Dayton (more on this great coaching matchup below), it will get a rematch with the ‘Cats, who ended their unbeaten season with a thrilling win in the Round of 32 three years ago. To demonstrate how wrong the committee was in placing Wichita State and its 30-4 record as a 10-seed, the Shockers opened as 7.5-point favorites vs. Dayton. The line was down to 6.5 as of Sunday night.

Finally, let’s check out the West that features Gonzaga, Arizona, FSU and West Va. as its top four seeds. There’s also Northwestern as the endless wait for an NCAA bid finally concluded Sunday when the Wildcats were marked as the 8-seed. They’ll take on Vanderbilt, which has won seven of its last nine games while going 8-1 ATS. The NW-Vandy winner will meet Gonzaga. If Gonzaga gets to the West semifinals, I think Notre Dame will be waiting for it.

FSU and Florida Gulf Coast will play a 3/14 game in Orlando. The Seminoles went unbeaten at home this year, but they’ve had all sorts of problems playing on the road and at neutral venues. Leonard Hamilton’s team better be on upset alert. This program hasn’t been to an Elite Eight since 1993 and hasn’t gone to the Final Four since 1972. FSU is in the field for the first time in five years.

I think sixth-seeded Maryland will get to the Sweet 16 with victories over Xavier and the FSU-FGC survivor. The Terrapins will get Arizona in the West semifinals after the Wildcats slip past VCU in a nail-biter.

I think the West is the weakest region and Arizona will beat Notre Dame in the finals to get to the Final Four. If that happens, Sean Miller will finally be able to shake the label of ‘the best coach never to make the Final Four.’

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas has tabbed Duke as the 5/1 ‘chalk’ to win the Tournament. UNC has the second-shortest odds (6/1), followed by Kentucky, Villanova and Kansas, who each have 8/1 odds. The next-shortest odds belong to Gonzaga (10/1), Louisville (12/1), Arizona (12/1), UCLA (12/1) and Oregon (25/1).

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Florida is making its 19th NCAA Tournament appearance. The Gators have been to five Final Fours, eight Elite Eights and three national-title games, winning it all twice. They have a stellar 42-17 overall record in the Tournament.

-- Best Round of 64 matchups:
1-Oklahoma State vs. Michigan
2-Minnesota vs. Middle Tennessee
3-Princeton vs. Notre Dame
4-Dayton vs. Wichita State
5-Northwestern vs. Vanderbilt

-- Best Coaching Matchups:
1-Jim Larranaga (Miami) vs. Tom Izzo (Michigan State)
2-Archie Miller (Dayton) vs. Gregg Marshall (Wichita State)
3-John Beilein (Michigan) vs. Brad Underwood (Oklahoma State)
4-Buzz Williams (Va. Tech) vs. Greg Gard (Wisconsin)
5-Tony Bennett (Virginia) vs. Kevin Keatts (UNC-Wilmington)

-- I think Gonzaga will be the first No. 1 seed eliminated. The Vanderbilt-Northwestern could pull the trick. If Mark Few’s team makes the Sweet 16, it will go down against either West Virginia or Notre Dame. Granted, the Fighting Irish face a stern test against Princeton, but I think it will find a way to survive and I really like the Irish’s chances to get to a third consecutive Elite Eight. With all that said, Wisconsin is a very dangerous No. 8 seed that has tons of NCAA Tournament experience (and success) from its core group of players. By the way, how the hell are the Badgers an eight seed? I think Villanova will slip past UW, but the Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed shouldn’t have to face a team as good as the Badgers during the first weekend.

-- Most Dangerous Double-Digit Seeds: Oklahoma State, VCU and Middle Tennessee.

-- Teams with a No. 5 seed or lower that can get (or stay) hot and win the national title: Iowa State, Michigan, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State.

-- I suggest buying the following future tickets for small amounts (remember, these teams don’t have to win it all for you to profit, as there will be all sorts of hedge scenarios to ensure making money if these schools advance to the Sweet 16): Iowa State (60/1), Michigan (65/1), Notre Dame (80/1) and Oklahoma State (100/1). (those odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag as of Sunday night)

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, MARCH 14

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

UNO at MSM 06:40 PM

MSM +0.0

O 132.0

SFPA at JAC 07:00 PM

JAC -4.0

MISS at MONM 07:00 PM

MISS +1.0

HBU at CAMP 07:00 PM

CAMP +1.5

VALP at ILL 07:15 PM

VALP +9.0

CAN at SAM 07:30 PM

SAM -3.5

O 164.0

OAK at CLEM 08:00 PM

OAK +10.5

O 157.0


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IND at GT 09:00 PM

O 145.0

COFC at CSU 09:00 PM

CSU -4.0

WAKE at KSU 09:10 PM

KSU -1.5

RICH at ALA 09:15 PM

ALA -8.0

BSU at UTAH 10:00 PM

BSU +12.0

CSB at CAL 11:15 PM

CSB +9.0

U 125.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Over/under on wins by conference in NCAA’s:

ACC: 14.5, over -$120

Big X: 8.5, over -$150

Big East: 7.5, 0ver -$130

SEC: 5.5, 0ver -$130

Big 14: 6.5, under -$120

Pac-12: 7.5, under -$150

WCC: 3.5, over -$145

AAC: 1.5, over -$220

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……..

13) K-State 95, Wake Forest 88— Wildcats were 25-31 (80.6%) inside arc; Deacons didn’t play whole lot of defense. Big X teams are now 5-1 vs ACC teams this year, with one win North Carolina crowning Oklahoma State in Maui Classic.

12) Mt St Mary’s 67, New Orleans 66— Mount was 10-19 on arc, UNO 1-9; plus, with 6:41 left, the Privateers’ big guy tried to strangle his teammate (the point guard) as they went into a TV timeout- the big guy was yanked from game and never returned. Have feeling the better team lost. Mt St Mary’s advances to play Villanova next.

11) How play-in teams who advance make out in round of 64: “JV (16-seed)” play-in winners are 5-7 vs spread when facing a #1 seed…….”Varsity (11-12 seed)” play-in winners are 7-5 vs spread in round of 64- those 12 teams have gone 1-1 SU in round of 64 all six years they’ve had it.

10) Venezuela played its play-in game in the WBC Monday with Jose Altuve on the bench; interesting decision by manager Omaz Vizquel, who used Rougned Odor instead. Now that they’ve advanced to San Diego, will be curious to see who they start at 2B in the next round.

9) Is there anyone who thinks Magic Johnson will do a better job than Mitch Kupchak did as the Lakers GM? Magic was a great, great player; wasn’t a very good coach- these are all different skills.

8) Of the eight 15-seeds who won first round NCAA tourney games, only Florida Gulf Coast in 2013 won its second round game- those teams are 2-5-1 vs spread in their second round games.

7) Coaching carousel; George Washington named interim coach Maurice Joseph its full time coach; South Florida named former Dayton/Ga Tech coach Brian Gregory its new coach, after Akron’s Keith Dambrot (Lebron James’ HS coach) turned them down.

6) Thank the Lord for spring training baseball on TV; Tuesday afternoon, I could barely see the house across the street from mine, thats how hard it was snowing. Watched Phillies-Braves, then Giants-Indians and was warm vicariously thru those broadcasts.

5) Atlanta Braves are leaving Disney’s Wide World of Sports for the Sarasota area next spring, as they reduce travel time to/from spring training games. Used to go to WWOS in July to watch AAU games; Tampa Bay Bucs had training camp there then- remember seeing Tom Crean (then at Marquette) watching the Bucs practice with his young son sitting on his shoulders.

4) No team lost its first conference tournament game, then won a national title that year. This year; Kansas, Louisville, Baylor, Purdue fall into that group this year.

3) If you care about such things, Kansas State was the last at-large team to make the NCAA tournament.

2) What exactly does Joe Lunardi do for the next ten months?

1— Here is my Final Four; North Carolina-Arizona-Villanova-Oregon. I’ll pick the Wildcats to repeat as national champs. Enjoy the games!!!

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 15

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NC CENTRAL (25 - 8) vs. CAL DAVIS (22 - 12) - 3/15/2017, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAL DAVIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) on Wednesday games over the last 3 seasons.
NC CENTRAL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
NC CENTRAL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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USC (24 - 9) vs. PROVIDENCE (20 - 12) - 3/15/2017, 9:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PROVIDENCE is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
PROVIDENCE is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
PROVIDENCE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
PROVIDENCE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PROVIDENCE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
PROVIDENCE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
PROVIDENCE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
PROVIDENCE is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 1-0 against the spread versus PROVIDENCE over the last 3 seasons
PROVIDENCE is 1-0 straight up against USC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BELMONT (22 - 6) at GEORGIA (19 - 14) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BELMONT is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GEORGIA is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all home games this season.
GEORGIA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
GEORGIA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in home games after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 1-0 against the spread versus BELMONT over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA is 1-0 straight up against BELMONT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TX-ARLINGTON (25 - 8) at BYU (22 - 11) - 3/15/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 230-176 ATS (+36.4 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
BYU is 145-111 ATS (+22.9 Units) in all home games since 1997.
BYU is 145-111 ATS (+22.9 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
BYU is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games in March games since 1997.
BYU is 63-41 ATS (+17.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1997.
TX-ARLINGTON is 45-22 ATS (+20.8 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
TX-ARLINGTON is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
BYU is 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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AKRON (26 - 8) at HOUSTON (22 - 10) - 3/15/2017, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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S DAKOTA (22 - 11) at IOWA (18 - 14) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S DAKOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games this season.
S DAKOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
S DAKOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
S DAKOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
IOWA is 18-43 ATS (-29.3 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
IOWA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FRESNO ST (20 - 12) at TCU (19 - 15) - 3/15/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
FRESNO ST is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all games this season.
FRESNO ST is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
FRESNO ST is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) on Wednesday games since 1997.
FRESNO ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
FRESNO ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 236-284 ATS (-76.4 Units) in all games since 1997.
TCU is 236-284 ATS (-76.4 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
TCU is 99-141 ATS (-56.1 Units) in all home games since 1997.
TCU is 99-141 ATS (-56.1 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
TCU is 60-90 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games after a conference game since 1997.
TCU is 92-122 ATS (-42.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
TCU is 161-218 ATS (-78.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
TCU is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UC-IRVINE (21 - 14) at ILLINOIS ST (27 - 6) - 3/15/2017, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UC-IRVINE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
UC-IRVINE is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
UC-IRVINE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
ILLINOIS ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in home games after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (19 - 14) at UCF (21 - 11) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 12-20 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games this season.
COLORADO is 12-20 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
COLORADO is 7-14 ATS (-8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
UCF is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOYOLA-MD (15 - 16) at GEORGE MASON (20 - 13) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOYOLA-MD is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 107-59 ATS (+42.1 Units) in road games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 107-59 ATS (+42.1 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 86-52 ATS (+28.8 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
GEORGE MASON is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) on Wednesday games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAMPTON (14 - 16) at COASTAL CAROLINA (16 - 17) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOLEDO (17 - 16) at GEORGE WASHINGTON (19 - 14) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E WASHINGTON (22 - 11) at WYOMING (18 - 14) - 3/15/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
WYOMING is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
WYOMING is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
E WASHINGTON is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
E WASHINGTON is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
WYOMING is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
WYOMING is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WI-GREEN BAY (18 - 13) at MISSOURI-KC (17 - 16) - 3/15/2017, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WI-GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI-KC over the last 3 seasons
WI-GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against MISSOURI-KC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (20 - 12) at RICE (22 - 11) - 3/15/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 84-119 ATS (-46.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 104-62 ATS (+35.8 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 54-30 ATS (+21.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
RICE is 19-31 ATS (-15.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
RICE is 19-31 ATS (-15.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
RICE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games in March games since 1997.
RICE is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus RICE over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against RICE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UTAH VALLEY ST (15 - 16) at GA SOUTHERN (18 - 14) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALL ST (21 - 12) at IUPU-FT WAYNE (19 - 12) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 26-43 ATS (-21.3 Units) in March games since 1997.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
BALL ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALL ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 8-16 ATS (-9.6 Units) in all games this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 8-16 ATS (-9.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FAIRFIELD (16 - 14) at MD-BALT COUNTY (18 - 12) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FAIRFIELD is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.
FAIRFIELD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEORGIA ST (20 - 12) at TEXAS A&M CC (20 - 11) - 3/15/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SF AUSTIN ST (18 - 14) at IDAHO (18 - 13) - 3/15/2017, 11:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
IDAHO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, March 16

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VIRGINIA TECH (22 - 10) vs. WISCONSIN (25 - 9) - 3/16/2017, 9:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
VIRGINIA TECH is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PRINCETON (23 - 6) vs. NOTRE DAME (25 - 9) - 3/16/2017, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PRINCETON is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
PRINCETON is 75-49 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUCKNELL (26 - 8) vs. W VIRGINIA (26 - 8) - 3/16/2017, 2:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
BUCKNELL is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
BUCKNELL is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
W VIRGINIA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UNC-WILMINGTON (29 - 5) vs. VIRGINIA (22 - 10) - 3/16/2017, 12:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNC-WILMINGTON is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
UNC-WILMINGTON is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
UNC-WILMINGTON is 42-20 ATS (+20.0 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
UNC-WILMINGTON is 163-126 ATS (+24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
UNC-WILMINGTON is 100-68 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
VIRGINIA is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E TENN ST (27 - 7) vs. FLORIDA (24 - 8) - 3/16/2017, 3:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
FLORIDA is 124-93 ATS (+21.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 73-47 ATS (+21.3 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
E TENN ST is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in March games since 1997.
E TENN ST is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
E TENN ST is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
E TENN ST is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLA GULF COAST (26 - 7) vs. FLORIDA ST (25 - 8) - 3/16/2017, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA GULF COAST is 32-12 ATS (+18.8 Units) in all games since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 32-12 ATS (+18.8 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
FLA GULF COAST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

XAVIER (21 - 13) vs. MARYLAND (24 - 8) - 3/16/2017, 6:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
XAVIER is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
XAVIER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
XAVIER is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games in March games since 1997.
XAVIER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
XAVIER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
XAVIER is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
XAVIER is 223-176 ATS (+29.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEVADA (28 - 6) vs. IOWA ST (23 - 10) - 3/16/2017, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA ST is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
IOWA ST is 153-117 ATS (+24.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
NEVADA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games this season.
NEVADA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEVADA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
NEVADA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
NEVADA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
NEVADA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEVADA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VERMONT (29 - 5) vs. PURDUE (25 - 7) - 3/16/2017, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PURDUE is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PURDUE is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PURDUE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
PURDUE is 42-26 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
PURDUE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 1-0 straight up against VERMONT over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIDDLE TENN ST (30 - 4) vs. MINNESOTA (24 - 9) - 3/16/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MINNESOTA is 87-116 ATS (-40.6 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINTHROP (26 - 6) vs. BUTLER (23 - 8) - 3/16/2017, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUTLER is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 70-34 ATS (+32.6 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
BUTLER is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in March games since 1997.
BUTLER is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
BUTLER is 70-34 ATS (+32.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
BUTLER is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 79-54 ATS (+19.6 Units) after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
BUTLER is 74-42 ATS (+27.8 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
BUTLER is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
BUTLER is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
BUTLER is 210-163 ATS (+30.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S DAKOTA ST (18 - 16) vs. GONZAGA (32 - 1) - 3/16/2017, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S DAKOTA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
GONZAGA is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games this season.
GONZAGA is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
GONZAGA is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
GONZAGA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
GONZAGA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
GONZAGA is 74-51 ATS (+17.9 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
GONZAGA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GONZAGA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
GONZAGA is 34-12 ATS (+20.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game since 1997.
S DAKOTA ST is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VANDERBILT (19 - 15) vs. NORTHWESTERN (23 - 11) - 3/16/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHWESTERN is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
NORTHWESTERN is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
NORTHWESTERN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
NORTHWESTERN is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VANDERBILT is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
VANDERBILT is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
VANDERBILT is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
VANDERBILT is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VANDERBILT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N DAKOTA (22 - 9) vs. ARIZONA (30 - 4) - 3/16/2017, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
ARIZONA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival this season.
N DAKOTA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all games this season.
N DAKOTA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
N DAKOTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
N DAKOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
N DAKOTA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
N DAKOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
ARIZONA is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VA COMMONWEALTH (26 - 8) vs. ST MARYS-CA (28 - 4) - 3/16/2017, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST MARYS-CA is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ST MARYS-CA is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ST MARYS-CA is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
ST MARYS-CA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games in first round tournament games since 1997.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
ST MARYS-CA is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST PETERS (19 - 13) at ALBANY (21 - 13) - 3/16/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FURMAN (21 - 11) at USC UPSTATE (17 - 15) - 3/16/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UNC-ASHEVILLE (23 - 9) at TENN-MARTIN (21 - 12) - 3/16/2017, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LAMAR (19 - 14) at TEXAS ST (20 - 13) - 3/16/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS ST is 1-0 straight up against LAMAR over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WEBER ST (18 - 13) at CS-FULLERTON (17 - 14) - 3/16/2017, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STONY BROOK (18 - 13) at IL-CHICAGO (15 - 18) - 3/16/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IL-CHICAGO is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in March games since 1997.
IL-CHICAGO is 119-88 ATS (+22.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
IL-CHICAGO is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, March 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROY (22 - 14) vs. DUKE (27 - 8) - 3/17/2017, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TROY is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
TROY is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
TROY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
TROY is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) after a conference game this season.
TROY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
TROY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
TROY is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DUKE is 59-83 ATS (-32.3 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MARQUETTE (19 - 12) vs. S CAROLINA (22 - 10) - 3/17/2017, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARQUETTE is 138-95 ATS (+33.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
S CAROLINA is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
S CAROLINA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS SOUTHERN (22 - 11) vs. N CAROLINA (27 - 7) - 3/17/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 291-239 ATS (+28.1 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after allowing 80 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SETON HALL (21 - 11) vs. ARKANSAS (25 - 9) - 3/17/2017, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SETON HALL is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SETON HALL is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS is 76-118 ATS (-53.8 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
ARKANSAS is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
ARKANSAS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
ARKANSAS is 89-134 ATS (-58.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
ARKANSAS is 60-90 ATS (-39.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE ST (20 - 14) vs. LOUISVILLE (24 - 8) - 3/17/2017, 2:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
LOUISVILLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
JACKSONVILLE ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
JACKSONVILLE ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE ST over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE ST over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA ST (20 - 12) vs. MICHIGAN (24 - 11) - 3/17/2017, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
OKLAHOMA ST is 114-79 ATS (+27.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N KENTUCKY (24 - 10) vs. KENTUCKY (29 - 5) - 3/17/2017, 9:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 85-58 ATS (+21.2 Units) in March games since 1997.
N KENTUCKY is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
N KENTUCKY is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WICHITA ST (30 - 4) vs. DAYTON (24 - 7) - 3/17/2017, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DAYTON is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
DAYTON is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
DAYTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) on Friday nights this season.
WICHITA ST is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
WICHITA ST is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
WICHITA ST is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
WICHITA ST is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
WICHITA ST is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
WICHITA ST is 81-54 ATS (+21.6 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW MEXICO ST (28 - 5) vs. BAYLOR (25 - 7) - 3/17/2017, 12:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
BAYLOR is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN ST (19 - 14) vs. MIAMI (21 - 11) - 3/17/2017, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MIAMI is 110-81 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
MIAMI is 137-104 ATS (+22.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MICHIGAN ST is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 11-19 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 11-19 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
MIAMI is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IONA (22 - 12) vs. OREGON (29 - 5) - 3/17/2017, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IONA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
OREGON is 39-26 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 39-26 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) in March games since 1997.
OREGON is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
OREGON is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
OREGON is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
IONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RHODE ISLAND (24 - 9) vs. CREIGHTON (25 - 9) - 3/17/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CREIGHTON is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CREIGHTON is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CREIGHTON is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
RHODE ISLAND is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENT ST (22 - 13) vs. UCLA (29 - 4) - 3/17/2017, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENT ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
UCLA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
KENT ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival this season.
KENT ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KENT ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
UCLA is 19-31 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 17-28 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 15

Play-in games, Dayton
Wednesday

North Carolina Central won at Northern Kentucky and Missouri, lost by 6 at Ohio State; they’re 20-3 vs teams outside the top 200. Eagles are most experienced team in country, starting five seniors- they lost by 18 to Iowa State in NCAA’s three years ago. MEAC teams are 3-3 in play-in games, winning last two. Cal-Davis is in NCAA’s for first time; they start two senior guards, are 5-6 vs teams in top 200. Three years ago, Cal Poly of Big West won their play-in game by 12. Last six years, favorites are 5-5-1 vs spread in the “JV (16-seed) ” play-in game.

Providence beat USC 70-69 in an 8-9 first round game LY, scoring on an OB under play as the game ended, a game Trojans led by 5 with 2:21 left. Friars are in NCAA’s for 4th year in row (1-3 last three years, with USC with only win); they won six of last seven games, are #278 experience team, starting four juniors. Southern Cal is 3-5 in its last eight games; they went 13-0 vs #251 pre-conference schedule. USC is #326 experience team; they start a freshman, three sophs; this is much longer trip for them than for Friars. Trojans are 2-6 vs teams in the top 60.

Thursday’s NCAA games
Day games
Notre Dame lost in regional finals the last two years; they’re 2-7 vs spread in last nine first round games, winning last two years by 4-7 points. Princeton won its last 19 games; their last loss was 96-90 to Monmouth Dec 19. Tigers are 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 9-11-11-6 points and a 72-70 win at Bucknell- they’re in NCAA’s for first time since 2011, when they lost 59-57 (+13) as a 13-seed vs Kentucky; Ivy League teams are 5-2 vs spread in first round last seven years (4-3 SU). Princeton played Sunday, now has early game Thursday; not best scenario.

Virginia went 9-7 down stretch after starting season 16-3; they won four of last five games, with all four wins by 10+ points. Cavaliers play slowest-tempo games in country, are #16 team in country at protecting ball. NC-Wilmington won its last seven games; they’re 11-2 outside CAA, with one of losses by 14 at Clemson of ACC. Seahawks are #57 experience team, starting three seniors, two sophomores; they force turnovers 20.4% of time. Virginia won their last three first round games, by 11-12-36 points. Since ’09, CAA teams are 8-2 vs spread in first round games. Last four years, underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in 5-12 first round games.

Winthrop is in NCAA’s for first time since 2010; they’re #31 experience team, starting three seniors and a junior. Eagles lost by 14 at Florida St, 16 at Dayton- they won at Illinois in their games vs “bigtime” teams. Winthrop makes 38% of its 3-pointers, accounting for 36.7% of their points. Butler lost its last two games, split their last ten games; they’re 5-1 vs teams outside top 100, with three wins by 16+ points. Bulldogs won first round games the last two years, by 8-10 points. Since ’08, Big South teams are 2-5 vs spread in first round games.

Gonzaga hammered South Dakota 102-65 Dec 21; Coyotes finished four games ahead of rival South Dakota State in Summit standings- does that make Zags overconfident here? Over last seven years, Gonzaga is 5-2 vs spread in first round games; last time they were a 1-seed (’13) they won their first round game 64-58. Jackrabbits lost first six D-I games this season; they lost by 29 at Cal, 12 to East Tennessee St, 28 at Northern Iowa, 22 to Wichita State in non-league games vs good teams. Since ’03, Summit League teams are 4-8-2 vs spread in first round, 4-4 last eight years.

Bucknell won 18 of its last 21 games, winning last six; they lost by 20 at Wake Forest, by 26 at Butler, but also won at Vanderbilt. Patriot League teams are 0-4 vs spread in this round the last four years, losing by 12-40-41-39 points; Bucknell is in tourney for first time since 68-56 (+3) loss to Butler four years ago. West Virginia lost in first round LY to SF Austin; Mountaineers force turnovers 28.1% of time, #1 in country- they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight first round games. Last three years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in 4-13 first round games.

Florida lost three of last four games, all to Vandy/Kentucky; Gators are 19-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 50- this is coach White’s first NCAA tourney in his sixth year as a head coach. East Tennessee State won 13 of its last 15 games; they’re #7 experience team in country, starting a junior, four seniors. Buccaneers played two SEC teams this year, losing to Tennessee by 4 at home, winning by 2 at Miss State- ETSU coach Forbes was an assistant at Tennessee for six years. Last three years, dogs are 7-5 vs spread in 4-13 first round games.

5-seed Minnesota is a 1-point favorite over 12-seed Middle Tennessee? Gophers are in NCAA tourney for first time since ’13; they’ve won nine of last 11 games, but lost senior G Springs over weekend- they played only six guys in last game (three played 39:00+). Blue Raiders beat Michigan St in first round LY; they’re 20-1 in last 21 games, 5-1 vs top 100 teams, with wins over UNCW, Ole Miss, Vandy, Belmont. Last three years, Big 14 teams are 8-14 vs spread (12-8 SU) in first round games. Last six years, C-USA teams are 4-2 vs spread in this round.

Northwestern is in NCAA’s for first time, despite going 5-7 in its last 12 games; Wildcats are 4-6 vs top 40 teams this season, with best win at Wisconsin- they start two juniors, two seniors, are healthier now with Lindsey (mono) back in lineup. Vanderbilt won seven of its last nine games; they were only 6-6 in pre-conference games, going 0-5 vs top 50 teams- they’re 6-9 overall vs top 50 teams this season. Drew was in NCAA’s twice as Valpo’s coach, losing first round games by 3-11 points. Commodores are 1-5 in last six NCAA tournament games.

Night games
Maryland is #317 experience team, playing three frosh around star PG Trimble; Terps are 4-6 in their last ten games after a 20-2 start when they won eight games by 6 or less points- they beat Georgetown by point in only game vs Big East foe. Xavier lost seven of last ten games; two of three wins were over doormat DePaul; Musketeers are 6-7 since Somner got hurt, but Bluiett is back, playing 38:00+ in seven games since he returned. Xavier played three starters 38:00+ in last game, a 4th kid 34:00- they’re 9-3 in last 12 first round games. Underdogs are 5-3 SU in 6-11 games the last two years.

VCU split its last six games after a 23-5 start; Rams are 4-2 in last six first round games- they’re #40 experience team, forcing turnovers 21% of time (#36)- they start four seniors. St Mary’s is in NCAA’s for first time since ’13; 2-3 vs top 60 teams, with three losses to Gonzaga, wins over Dayton, Nevada back in November (VCU split pair with Dayton). Gaels are #84 experience team, playing 2nd-slowest tempo in country; they start three juniors, two seniors- they’ve got #4 eFG% in country. Last six years, underdogs are 14-9-1 vs spread in 7-10 games.

Purdue lost in first round LY as a 5-seed; their last tourney win was in ’12. Boilers won eight of last ten games with both losses to Michigan- they’re #23 experience team- no seniors start. Vermont won its last 21 games, is in its first NCAA since 2012; Catamounts lost to Providence by 22, Butler by 12, So Carolina by 18; their best win was over #111 Harvard. Vermont is #93 experience team, but start only one senior. America East teams are 6-6 vs spread in last 12 tourney games, but Albany was 5-1, rest of league is 1-5 vs spread. Last three years, underdog is 7-5 vs spread in 4-13 games— since ’13, single digit underdogs are 5-4 in 4-13 games.

Florida State is in NCAA’s for first time since 2012; they split last four first round games (1-3 vs spread). Seminoles split their last eight games- they’re #306 experience team, starting frosh and two sophs- their bench plays #23 minutes in country. FSU is 11-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with ten wins by 14+ points- the only loss was to Temple. Florida Gulf Coast won 19 of last 21 games; they’re 0-3 vs top 50 teams, losing by 21 to Florida, 1 at Michigan St, 9 at Baylor- they lost by 16 to UNC in this round LY. Last four years, double digit favorites are 4-3 vs spread in 4-13 games.

Virginia Tech is in NCAA’s for first time since ’07; Hokies are 2-0 vs Big 14 teams, winning by 3 at Michigan, by 13 over Nebraska on neutral floor. Tech starts two juniors, two seniors; they’re #103 experience team- they make 40.3% of their 3’s (#9 in country). Wisconsin beat Syracuse by 17, lost by 15 to UNC; Badgers are 4-6 in last 10 games (3-1 in last four)- they start four seniors, but are #306 at defending arc (37.7%). Last three years, favorites are 6-4 vs spread in 8-9 games; last five years, favorites of 4+ points are 6-2 vs spread in 8-9 games.

Arizona won five of its last six first round games; they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight first round games, 4-6 in last 10 first round games when laying double digits. When Wildcats won Pac-12 tourney two years ago, they won first round game by 21. Arizona is #323 experience team, with two frosh and a soph starting. North Dakota is here for first time; Hawks went 2-5 vs D-I teams in pre-conference. UND plays #34 tempo in country. Big Sky teams lost last ten NCAA 1st round games (2-8 vs spread); last SU winner was Montana in ’06.

Since ’08, Mountain West teams other than San Diego State are 5-22 vs spread in NCAA tournament, 4-16 in the first round. Nevada is in NCAA’s for first time since ’07; they’ve got a former NBA coach, start three sophs- their bench plays 2nd-least minutes in country. Since ’94, underdogs in 5-12 game in this region are 18-5 vs spread, 15-8 SU. Over last four years, dogs are 11-5 vs spread in 5-12 games. Iowa State is #6 experience team in country, starting four seniors; they’re 4-1 in last five first round games, with all four wins by 13+ points.

Friday’s games
Day games
Oklahoma State lost its last three games, all to Kansas/Iowa St; Cowboys went 20-12 against the hardest schedule in country, winning five Big X road games- they lost by 1 at Maryland, their only Big 14 opponent. Michigan is in NCAA’s for 6th time in last seven years; they’re 10-2 in last 12 games, winning four games in Big 14 tourney last week after the team plane slid off the runway while trying to leave Michigan Wednesday. Wolverines are #62 experience team led by senior PG Walton. Last eight years, underdogs are 20-11-1 vs spread in 7-10 games.

Baylor lost in first round last two years, as a 3-seed and 5-seed; that doesn’t happen much. Bears went 5-6 in last 11 games after a 20-1 start that had them #1 in country; 8 of their 11 non-league wins were by 15+ points. New Mexico State is in NCAA’s for 5th time in last six years; they went 1-3 vs spread in previous four visits, losing by 13-20-4-19 points. Aggies won their last five games overall; they beat Bakersfield in WAC final, after Roadrunners won in four OT’s the night before, so they got little fortunate there. Aggies are #147 experience team, Baylor #109.

Seton Hall won five of its last six games, Arkansas eight of its last ten; good 8-9 game here. Seton Hall starts three juniors and senior who won Big East tourney LY, then lost to Gonzaga by 16 in first round- it was their first NCAA’s since ’06. Pirates lost 81-76 to Florida, its only SEC opponent this season. In first three years of refigured Big East, league is 9-6 vs spread in first round games. Arkansas is 11-1 outside SEC, losing at Minnesota by 14; Razorbacks are #18 experience team. Last eight years, underdogs are 20-10 vs spread in 8-9 games.

Oregon won eight of last nine games but lost best shot blocker Boucher for season with injury; Ducks lost Pac-12 final by 3 to Arizona- they’re 13-0 vs teams ranked outside the top 100, with seven wins by 17+ points. Oregon played 7 guys in Pac-12 final, with four starters playing 33+ minutes. Iona won Alaskan Shootout in November; they’re 7-4 outside MAAC, losing by 21 at Florida State. Gaels make 39.7% on arc (#16); they won true road game in OT in MAAC final to get to this point. Last four years, underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in 3-14 games.

Jacksonville State is in NCAA’s for first time; JSU coach Harper was in twice while at Western Kentucky, losing in this round by 15-7 points to Kentucky/Kansas. Gamecocks are 0-2 vs top 50 teams this season, losing to TCU by 19, Maryland by 26. Louisville won its last four first round games (1-2-1 vs spread), winning by 7-31-7-2 points. This is only 3rd time in last 30 years Cards are #1 or #2 seed- they won 1st round games by 20-31 those years. Over last 8 years, OVC teams are 6-1-1 vs spread in this round. Since ’08, #2 seeds favored by 20+ points are 1-3 vs spread.

North Carolina was “only” 8-4 in its last 12 games, losing by 15 at Miami, 20 at Virginia; UNC is 3-4 in its last seven games away from Chapel Hill- they won their last 14 first round games. Last six times they were a 1-seed, Tar Heels are 3-2-1 vs spread in first round. Texas Southern lost at Arizona by 22, Louisville by 31, Cincinnati by 38, Baylor by 26 as they played guarantee games in December to cover their budget. Tigers won at Rice/LaSalle; their coach is Mike Davis, who used to coach at Indiana. Since 2004, SWAC teams are 1-6 vs spread in this round.

Rhode Island is in NCAA’s for first time since ’99 (lost to Charlotte in OT); Rams won their last eight games, are strong defensive team that holds foes to 29.2% on arc, #2 in country. Creighton was 18-1 when PG Watson got hurt; they’re 7-8 since then. Bluejays made 45%+ on arc in four of those seven wins. Creighton is 12-0 outside Big East, but that was with Watson in lineup. URI beat Cincinnati on a neutral court, lost by 3 at Providence in two of its pre-conference games. Last eight years, underdogs are 17-14-1 vs spread in 6-11 games, 5-3 last two years.

Night games
Wichita State beat Sean Miller’s Arizona team in LY’s tourney; they draw Sean’s brother Archie here. Shockers are 10-3 outside MVC, 3-4 vs top 60 teams this season- they’re #262 experience team. Wichita’s bench plays 4th-most minutes in country. Dayton had won nine games in row before losing to GW/Davidson in last two; Flyers are #34 experience team, starting four seniors- they shot 40%+ from arc in each of last eight games. Dayton is 2-1 in this round under Miller, losing 70-51 to Syracuse LY. Last four years, MVC teams are 6-1 vs spread in this round.

Kansas State gets extra day of rest, with this game Friday instead of Thursday after Tuesday tilt in Dayton. Wildcats were 27-36 on foul line in Dayton foulfest Tuesday; they’ve won four of last five games, are 12-1 outside Big X. Cincinnati is 7-3 in its last ten games after starting season 22-2; Bearcats won by point in OT at Iowa State in December, a team that swept Kansas State this year, by 5-8 points. Cincy is 1-3 in last four first-round games, with four games decided by total of 11 points. Last 7 years, dogs are 15-12-1 vs spread in 6-11 games.

South Carolina lost six of last nine games (went 4-6 in last 10 LY) but made tourney due to 13-0 pre-conference schedule with wins over Clemson/Memphis. Carolina won by 15-14 vs couple of lesser Big East teams (DePaul/St John’s). Marquette is best 3-point shooting team in tourney (43%); Eagles beat Vandy by 24, Georgia by 10 in two games vs SEC opponents. Carolina is #5 in country at defending 3’s. Crowd in Greenville figures to support home-state Gamecocks, but Duke fans will root for Wojo’s team. Last six years, dogs are 14-9-1 vs spread in 7-10 games.

Duke is 1-4 vs spread in its last five 1st-round games, losing SU as a 2-seed/3-seed to Lehigh, Mercer; Blue Devils won ACC tourney LW, are 12-3 in last 15 games- they’re #266 in experience, starting two frosh and a soph (all very talented). Troy finished T6 in Sun Belt (15th-rated league); Trojans won 10 of last 12 games- they went 6-6 vs #335 pre-conference schedule- they lost by 5 at USC. Last ten years, 2-seeds are 22-18 vs spread in this round (7-5 last three years). Since ’07, Sun Belt teams are 7-3 against the spread in this round.

PG Lonzo Ball hurt his left thumb in UCLA’s last game; he is their engine, so if he isn’t 100%, Bruins won’t play well, but we won’t be able to tell until game starts. UCLA won 10 of last 11 games; they beat W. Michigan of MAC by 14 in December. Bruins won seven of last eight first round games; they were underdog in 3 of last 4. Kent State is in NCAA’s for first time since ’08; Golden Flashes won nine of last ten games; they start a frosh, two sophs- they lost at Oregon St by 19, the worst team in Pac-12. Since ’03, MAC teams are 8-6 vs spread in this round, 1-3 last four years.

Kentucky won its last 11 games; they’re 10-3 outside SEC, beating Cleveland St of Horizon by 31 in November. Wildcats won last six first round games (3-3 vs spread); they’re #341 experience team, better not look ahead to Wichita/Dayton winner, because Northern Kentucky has to excited as hell to be here, for first time. Norse won six in row, 10 of last 11 games; they lost by 31 at West Va, but game was only 36-29 at the half. Last five years, Horizon teams are 1-4 vs spread in this round. Last ten years, 2-seeds are 22-18 vs spread in this round (7-5 last three years).

Michigan State/Miami both lost three of last four games; Spartans are 8-2 in last ten first round game- they lost as a 2-seed LY, as an 18-point favorite. Miami won its last five first round games but was higher seed in all five games. ‘canes are #264 experience team that plays #338 tempo- their bench plays #321 minutes. MSU’s bench plays most minutes in country- they start three freshmen, which is why they aren’t as consistent (8-9 in last 17 games) as most Izzo teams. MSU plays #242 tempo. Last eight years, underdogs are 20-10 vs spread in 8-9 games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
UTAH VALLEY vs. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Utah Valley is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Georgia Southern's last 10 games at home
Georgia Southern is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
BALL STATE vs. IUPU FORT WAYNE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ball State's last 6 games on the road
No trends available

7:00 PM
FAIRFIELD vs. UMBC
Fairfield is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
No trends available

7:00 PM
BELMONT vs. GEORGIA
Belmont is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Belmont's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia's last 5 games at home
Georgia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home

7:00 PM
COLORADO vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Colorado's last 9 games on the road
Colorado is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida's last 6 games at home
Central Florida is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home

7:00 PM
LOYOLA vs. GEORGE MASON
No trends available
George Mason is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
George Mason is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA vs. IOWA
No trends available
Iowa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Iowa's last 8 games at home

7:00 PM
TOLEDO vs. GEORGE WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toledo's last 12 games on the road
Toledo is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
George Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of George Washington's last 7 games

7:30 PM
AKRON vs. HOUSTON
Akron is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Akron's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games at home
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

8:00 PM
FRESNO STATE vs. TCU
Fresno State is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fresno State's last 6 games on the road
TCU is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of TCU's last 5 games

8:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. RICE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
Rice is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rice's last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
GEORGIA STATE vs. TEXAS A&M C.C.
Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Georgia State is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
No trends available

8:05 PM
WISC-GREEN BAY vs. UMKC
No trends available
UMKC is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
UMKC is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

9:00 PM
TEXAS-ARLINGTON vs. BYU
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas-Arlington's last 6 games on the road
Texas-Arlington is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
BYU is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 games
BYU is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
EASTERN WASHINGTON vs. WYOMING
Eastern Washington is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Eastern Washington's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Wyoming's last 8 games at home
Wyoming is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home

9:10 PM
USC vs. PROVIDENCE
No trends available
Providence is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

9:30 PM
UC IRVINE vs. ILLINOIS STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UC Irvine's last 5 games on the road
UC Irvine is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Illinois State is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Illinois State's last 6 games

11:00 PM
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN vs. IDAHO
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Idaho's last 5 games at home
Idaho is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


Thursday, March 16

12:15 PM
PRINCETON vs. NOTRE DAME
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Notre Dame's last 7 games
Notre Dame is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

12:40 PM
UNC WILMINGTON vs. VIRGINIA
No trends available
Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Virginia's last 8 games

1:30 PM
WINTHROP vs. BUTLER
No trends available
Butler is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Butler's last 6 games

2:00 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE vs. GONZAGA
No trends available
Gonzaga is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
Gonzaga is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 games

2:45 PM
BUCKNELL vs. WEST VIRGINIA
No trends available
West Virginia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
West Virginia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

3:10 PM
EAST TENNESSEE STATE vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida's last 10 games

TBA
LAMAR vs. TEXAS STATE
No trends available
Texas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Lamar
Texas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

4:00 PM
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. MINNESOTA
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 10 games
Minnesota is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

4:30 PM
VANDERBILT vs. NORTHWESTERN
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games

6:50 PM
XAVIER vs. MARYLAND
No trends available
Maryland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Maryland is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games

7:00 PM
SAINT PETER'S vs. ALBANY
Saint Peter's is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
No trends available

7:00 PM
FURMAN vs. USC UPSTATE
Furman is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Furman's last 6 games on the road
No trends available

7:20 PM
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH vs. ST. MARY'S
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Mary's last 6 games
St. Mary's is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games

7:27 PM
VERMONT vs. PURDUE
No trends available
Purdue is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Purdue is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

8:00 PM
STONY BROOK vs. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Illinois-Chicago's last 6 games
Illinois-Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

8:00 PM
UNC ASHEVILLE vs. TENNESSEE-MARTIN
No trends available
Tennessee-Martin is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Tennessee-Martin is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

9:20 PM
FLORIDA GULF COAST vs. FLORIDA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 5 games
Florida State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

9:40 PM
VIRGINIA TECH vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Wisconsin is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

9:50 PM
NORTH DAKOTA vs. ARIZONA
No trends available
Arizona is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games

9:57 PM
NEVADA vs. IOWA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Iowa State's last 5 games
Iowa State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

10:00 PM
WEBER STATE vs. CS FULLERTON
Weber State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Weber State's last 5 games on the road
CS Fullerton is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
CS Fullerton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


Friday, March 17

12:15 PM
PRINCETON vs. NOTRE DAME
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Notre Dame's last 7 games
Notre Dame is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

12:40 PM
UNC WILMINGTON vs. VIRGINIA
No trends available
Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Virginia's last 8 games

1:30 PM
WINTHROP vs. BUTLER
No trends available
Butler is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Butler's last 6 games

2:00 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE vs. GONZAGA
No trends available
Gonzaga is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
Gonzaga is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 games

2:45 PM
BUCKNELL vs. WEST VIRGINIA
No trends available
West Virginia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
West Virginia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

3:10 PM
EAST TENNESSEE STATE vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida's last 10 games

TBA
LAMAR vs. TEXAS STATE
No trends available
Texas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Lamar
Texas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

4:00 PM
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. MINNESOTA
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 10 games
Minnesota is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

4:30 PM
VANDERBILT vs. NORTHWESTERN
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games

6:50 PM
XAVIER vs. MARYLAND
No trends available
Maryland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Maryland is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games

7:00 PM
SAINT PETER'S vs. ALBANY
Saint Peter's is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
No trends available

7:00 PM
FURMAN vs. USC UPSTATE
Furman is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Furman's last 6 games on the road
No trends available

7:20 PM
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH vs. ST. MARY'S
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Mary's last 6 games
St. Mary's is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games

7:27 PM
VERMONT vs. PURDUE
No trends available
Purdue is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Purdue is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

8:00 PM
STONY BROOK vs. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Illinois-Chicago's last 6 games
Illinois-Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

8:00 PM
UNC ASHEVILLE vs. TENNESSEE-MARTIN
No trends available
Tennessee-Martin is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Tennessee-Martin is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

9:20 PM
FLORIDA GULF COAST vs. FLORIDA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 5 games
Florida State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

9:40 PM
VIRGINIA TECH vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Wisconsin is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

9:50 PM
NORTH DAKOTA vs. ARIZONA
No trends available
Arizona is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games

9:57 PM
NEVADA vs. IOWA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Iowa State's last 5 games
Iowa State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

10:00 PM
WEBER STATE vs. CS FULLERTON
Weber State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Weber State's last 5 games on the road
CS Fullerton is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
CS Fullerton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 15


NC-Greensboro @ Syracuse

Game 679-680
March 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC-Greensboro
58.695
Syracuse
66.171
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Syracuse
by 7 1/2
156
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Syracuse
by 12 1/2
149 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NC-Greensboro
(+12 1/2); Over

Stephen F Austin @ Idaho

Game 667-668
March 15, 2017 @ 11:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stephen F Austin
47.433
Idaho
54.770
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Idaho
by 7 1/2
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Idaho
by 5
139
Dunkel Pick:
Idaho
(-5); Under

Georgia State @ TX-Corpus Christi

Game 665-666
March 15, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia State
60.207
TX-Corpus Christi
51.825
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia State
by 8 1/2
141
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia State
by 3
146 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia State
(-3); Under

Fairfield @ MD-Baltimore Co

Game 663-664
March 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Fairfield
57.969
MD-Baltimore Co
52.713
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Fairfield
by 5
166
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
MD-Baltimore Co
by 3
157
Dunkel Pick:
Fairfield
(+3); Over

Ball State @ IPFW

Game 661-662
March 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ball State
51.995
IPFW
65.496
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
IPFW
by 13 1/2
172
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
IPFW
by 4 1/2
167 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
IPFW
(-4 1/2); Over

Utah Valley @ Georgia Southern

Game 659-660
March 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah Valley
49.939
Georgia Southern
57.207
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Southern
by 7 1/2
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Southern
by 4
154 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Southern
(-4); Under

San Francisco @ Rice

Game 657-658
March 15, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
58.257
Rice
63.989
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Rice
by 5 1/2
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Rice
by 1 1/2
155
Dunkel Pick:
Rice
(-1 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ UMKC

Game 655-656
March 15, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
53.256
UMKC
51.308
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 2
171
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UMKC
by 1
166 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+1); Over

East Washington @ Wyoming

Game 653-654
March 15, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
East Washington
50.010
Wyoming
58.573
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wyoming
by 8 1/2
167
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wyoming
by 6 1/2
161
Dunkel Pick:
Wyoming
(-6 1/2); Over

Toledo @ George Washington

Game 651-652
March 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toledo
56.087
George Washington
65.631
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
George Washington
by 9 1/2
154
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
George Washington
by 5
147
Dunkel Pick:
George Washington
(-5); Over

Hampton @ Coastal Carolina

Game 647-648
March 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Hampton
46.414
Coastal Carolina
49.936
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Coastal Carolina
by 3 1/2
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Coastal Carolina
by 11
145
Dunkel Pick:
Hampton
(+11); Over

Loyola-Maryland @ George Mason

Game 645-646
March 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Loyola-Maryland
47.059
George Mason
53.990
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
George Mason
by 7
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
George Mason
by 12
142
Dunkel Pick:
Loyola-Maryland
(+12); Over

Colorado @ UCF

Game 639-640
March 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
64.747
UCF
71.714
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UCF
by 7
134
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UCF
by 2
138 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UCF
(-2); Under

UC-Irvine @ Illinois State

Game 637-638
March 15, 2017 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UC-Irvine
62.032
Illinois State
66.898
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Illinois State
by 5
125
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Illinois State
by 11
130
Dunkel Pick:
UC-Irvine
(+11); Under

Fresno State @ TCU

Game 635-636
March 15, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Fresno State
66.601
TCU
68.371
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TCU
by 2
138
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TCU
by 10 1/2
144 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Fresno State
(+10 1/2); Under

South Dakota @ Iowa

Game 633-634
March 15, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Dakota
54.785
Iowa
72.164
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iowa
by 17 1/2
168
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iowa
by 11 1/2
164 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa
(-11 1/2); Over

Akron @ Houston

Game 629-630
March 15, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Akron
64.648
Houston
64.306
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Akron
Even
154
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 8 1/2
146
Dunkel Pick:
Akron
(+8 1/2); Over

TX-Arlington @ Brigham Young

Game 627-628
March 15, 2017 @ 11:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
TX-Arlington
57.246
Brigham Young
67.862
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brigham Young
by 10 1/2
174
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brigham Young
by 5
166
Dunkel Pick:
Brigham Young
(-5); Over

Belmont @ Georgia

Game 625-626
March 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Belmont
54.682
Georgia
66.771
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia
by 12
156
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia
by 7
148 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia
(-7); Over

USC @ Providence

Game 623-624
March 15, 2017 @ 9:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
USC
63.895
Providence
68.064
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Providence
by 4
136
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
USC
by 3
141
Dunkel Pick:
Providence
(+3); Under

NC Central @ Cal Davis

Game 621-622
March 15, 2017 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC Central
49.863
Cal Davis
52.448
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cal Davis
by 2 1/2
127
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC Central
by 3 1/2
132 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cal Davis
(+3 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

UCD at NCCU

NCCU -3.5

L-MD at GMU 07:00 PM

L-MD +9.5

FAIR at UMBC 07:00 PM

UMBC -3.0

HAMP at CCAR 07:00 PM

HAMP +9.0

COLO at UCF 07:00 PM

UCF -3.0

TOL at GW 07:00 PM

TOL +6.0

O 146.5

BALL at IPFW 07:00 PM

IPFW -5.0

O 165.5

UNCG at SYR 07:00 PM

SYR -12.0

U 146.0

BEL at UGA 07:00 PM

BEL +6.5

UVU at GASO 07:00 PM

GASO -4.5

AKR at HOU 07:30 PM

AKR +8.0

O 144.5

[StarDust Bum]

GSU at AMCC 08:00 PM

AMCC +3.0

SF at RICE 08:00 PM

O 154.5

GB at UMKC 08:00 PM

GB -1.5

FRES at TCU 08:00 PM

FRES +9.5

SDAK at IOWA 09:00 PM

SDAK +11.0

EWU at WYO 09:00 PM

O 163.0

USC at PROV 09:10 PM

USC -2.5

UCI at ILST 09:30 PM

UCI +9.5

UTA at BYU 11:00 PM

O 164.5

SFA at IDHO 11:00 PM

SFA +4.0

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday - Session 1
March 15, 2017

This Thursday’s betting action in the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament gets underway early in the afternoon with a West Region matchup between No. 12 Princeton and No. 5 Notre Dame.

Next up in the East Region is No. 12 UNC Wilmington taking on No. 5 Virginia. Action continues in the opening round of the South Region with No. 13 Winthrop squaring off against No. 4 Butler and the first session ends with another matchup in the West between No. 16 South Dakota State and the top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs.

West Region (Buffalo, NY)
No. 12 Princeton Tigers vs. No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (CBS, 12:15 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Notre Dame -7, 134 ½

Betting Matchup

The Tigers won the first ever Ivy League conference tournament this past weekend with a 71-59 victory against Yale as seven-point favorites.

This capped off a perfect 16-0 straight-up run through league play. Princeton (23-6 SU, 13-10 ATS) has now covered against the spread in seven of its last eight games and the total has gone OVER in its last five contests. Sophomore guard Myles Stephens led the way against Yale in that title game with 23 points.

Notre Dame made it all the way to the title game of the ACC Tournament before falling to Duke 75-69 as a 4 ½-point underdog. The Fighting Irish (25-9 SU, 18-9-1 ATS) come into this opening round tilt with a SU 8-2 record in their last 10 games while going a profitable 7-3 ATS.

The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games. Junior power forward Bonzie Colson has been the team’s leading scorer all season long with 17.5 points per game and he exploded for 29 points in the loss to Duke.

Betting Trends

-- The Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 nonconference games and the total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games against the ACC.

-- The Fighting Irish are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games closing as favorites.

East Region (Orlando, FL)
No. 12 UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs. No. 5 Virginia Cavaliers (truTV, 12:40 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Virginia -7 ½, 135

Betting Matchup

The Seahawks (29-5 SU, 14-15-1 ATS) bring a SU seven-game winning streak into this matchup including a successful three-game run through the CAA Tournament.

They did manage to cover as 2 ½-point favorites in a 78-69 victory against the College of Charleston in the title game after going 2-5-1 ATS in their previous eight contests.

Sophomore guard CJ Bryce has averaged 21.6 points in his last five starts to raise his team-high scoring average on the year to 17.6 PPG.

Virginia fell to Notre Dame 71-58 in the ACC Tournament as a 3 ½-point favorite to snap a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS. The Cavaliers (22-10 SU, 19-12 ATS) finished the regular season 11-7 in conference play with a SU 3-4 record (SU and ATS) over their final seven games.

The total went OVER in two tournament games after staying UNDER in their previous six contests. Virginia remains the top team in the nation on defense when it comes to points allowed (55.6).

Betting Trends

-- The Seahawks are 3-0-2 ATS in their last five games in the NCAA Tournament and the total has gone OVER in all five of those contests.

-- The Cavaliers have gone 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral-site games when closing as favorites and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games against the CAA.

-- These two last met in 2010 with Virginia winning 69-67 as a heavy 16 ½-point home favorite. The total went OVER the 134 ½-point closing line.

South Region (Milwaukee, WI)
No. 13 Winthrop Eagles vs. No. 4 Butler Bulldogs (TNT, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Butler -11 ½, 144 ½

Betting Matchup

Winthrop punched its ticket to the Big Dance with a 76-59 victory against Campbell in the Big South Tournament title game as a 12 ½-point favorite. The total stayed UNDER the closing 143 ½-point line after going OVER in seven of its last eight games with a posted betting line.

The Eagles (26-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) are led by senior guard Keon Johnson with 22.5 PPG as part of a team scoring average of 79.7 points a game.

The Bulldogs were second to Villanova in the Big East this season at 12-6 SU in conference play, but they come into this game on a down note following a stunning loss 62-57 loss to Xavier as 6 ½-point favorites in their first conference tournament game.

Butler is a spotty 5-5 (4-6 ATS) in its last 10 games as part of an overall SU record of 23-8 (18-13 ATS). Junior guard Kelan Martin is averaging a team-high 16.1 PPG and he has exceeded that average in three of his last four starts.

Betting Trends

-- The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five nonconference games and the total has stayed UNDER in its last five NCAA Tournament games.

-- The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games closing as favorites and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in seven of their last eight neutral-site games.

West Region (Salt Lake City, UT.)
No. 16 South Dakota State Jackrabbits at No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (TBS, 2 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Gonzaga -22, 153

Betting Matchup

With a SU six-game run to close out the season including a 79-77 victory against Nebraska-Omaha as three-point favorites in the Summit League Tournament’s title game, the Jackrabbits punched their ticket to the Big Dance.

South Dakota State (18-16 SU, 14-16-1 ATS) has gone a profitable 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of its last six outings.

Sophomore forward Mike Daum is averaging 25.3 PPG and he went off for 37 points his last time out.

Gonzaga comes into this tournament with just one SU blemish on its record to go along with 32 victories. The Bulldogs have also been one of the top betting teams in college basketball this season with a 23-8-1 record ATS.

The total stayed UNDER 134 ½ points in a 74-56 win against St. Mary’s in the WCC Tournament Championship and it has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. Gonzaga is averaging 84.6 PPG while holding opponents to just 61.2 points on defense.

Betting Trends

-- The Jackrabbits are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games and the total has gone OVER in their last six games following an ATS loss.

-- The Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games played at a neutral site when closing as favorites. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games.