The Bum's 2016 NCAA Basketball News-Trends-Picks !

[StarDust Bum]

No. 1 seed Tar Heels aiming to remain dominant on the boards
March 22, 2017

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (AP) North Carolina coach Roy Williams has made it clear to his players for years.

When that ball goes up, the Tar Heels had better put a body on someone to box out or work to get inside position and tap a missed shot back up on the glass. And those wing players, well, they need to run in and chase down rebounds or risk earning a seat alongside their Hall of Fame coach.

That relentless approach made the Tar Heels the nation's best rebounding team and helped them earn a No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament's South Region. It's a key reason why they're still alive, too, after surviving a scare to reach the Sweet 16 and face Butler on Friday in Memphis, Tennessee.

''It's part of our job,'' junior swingman Theo Pinson said. ''It's what we're taught to do, and we need to do it.''

And no team has been this good at it in years.

North Carolina (29-7) leads the country in rebounding margin at plus-13.1, the highest average by a Division I team since Michigan State outrebounded opponents by more than 15 a game during a Final Four season in 2001. It touches everything the Tar Heels do, from snatching down a miss to secure a defensive stop, to the outlet pass that kickstarts their fast-paced offense and ultimately the work on the offensive boards that gives them extra chances around the rim.

''You've heard me say that a prospect came in one time and said, `I didn't realize there was an 11th commandment: Thou shalt box out,''' Williams said in January. ''But that's the way I treat the game.''

This year's Tar Heels lack the kind of dominant rebounder they had in Associated Press All-American Brice Johnson, who averaged 17.0 points and 10.4 rebounds during the Tar Heels' run to last year's NCAA championship game.

Six-foot-10 senior Kennedy Meeks leads UNC at 9.1 rebounds per game, but UNC gets plenty of production through its lineup; 6-9 senior Isaiah Hicks (5.7) and 6-11 freshman Tony Bradley Jr. (5.3) work inside, while the team's perimeter length shows up with the 6-6 Pinson (4.4) and 6-8 Justin Jackson (4.7).

''I told them, gave them (Louisville coach) Rick Pitino's old line about `Those guys aren't walking back in that door,''' Williams said of losing Johnson and four-year starter Marcus Paige.

''So we started emphasizing it the first day: we've got to get rebounding from five people on the defensive boards. You hear us on the bench if sit close enough, all the time we're screaming: `You've got to get to the boards.'''

UNC's work on the offensive glass stands out in particular, with Pitino noting in February that it was ''an offense unto itself'' and was ''probably just as potent as anything they do.''

Consider: the Tar Heels lead the country in KenPom.com's offensive rebounding percentage - a measure of possible offensive rebounds collected - at 42.2 percent. And that means the Tar Heels get roughly seven more shots per game than their opponents.

The Tar Heels have frustrated Williams at times by repeatedly batting the ball around on the glass - ''all those volleyball times,'' he called it - but failing to convert around the rim as efficiently as he would like.

Still, the Tar Heels average 17.6 second-chance points per game, roughly nine more than opponents. That includes Sunday, when Meeks tipped in Joel Berry II's final-minute heave onto the backboard during a 12-0 game-closing run to rally past Arkansas 72-65 after flirting with a stunningly early exit.

''It's a little different shooting the ball and not really feeling like, `We're not going to get an offensive rebound,''' Jackson said. ''But shooting the ball and knowing, `OK, we might have a chance of getting another possession or whatever,' it gives you a little more confidence whenever you shoot it.

''For us, we have to continue to get on the offensive glass and try to dominate as much as possible in that area.''

No one has to tell Butler coach Chris Holtmann about the importance of slowing the Tar Heels on the boards. His Bulldogs (25-8) were outrebounded in their last three games before the NCAA Tournament.

''We're going to have to rebound better because they rebound so well,'' Holtmann said. ''I think they're the best offensive rebounding team in 10 years.''

[StarDust Bum]

Belgium-born Lecomte helps Baylor get to another Sweet 16
March 22, 2017

WACO, Texas (AP) Manu Lecomte is like so many other players who made the NCAA Tournament. They grew up with dreams of making big plays on the biggest stage.

Like his four-point play to start a personal scoring surge late in the second-round game that finally put Baylor ahead to stay and helped push the Bears to another Sweet 16.

What is different about Lecomte (pronounced La-conn-t) is that he grew up in Belgium, where soccer is the favorite sport. He wasn't exactly on the recruiting trail for Division I basketball coaches, and nobody else in his family played basketball, not even the uncle who was a coach and taught him the game.

''I guess it's unique,'' he said. ''When I was 4 or 5 years old, and he just got me started, and he started training me every day, and I just loved it. I loved the competition, I loved the game.''

Baylor (27-7) will be in New York to play South Carolina at Madison Square Garden on Friday night.

Lecomte was 3-of-15 shooting in the tournament before making a go-ahead 3-pointer while being fouled with 4:40 left Sunday against Southern Cal. That was the first of his eight straight points in a 45-second span, and 12 the rest of the way in an 82-78 win.

''That dude makes huge plays , huge plays. He's one of those guys, he likes a challenge,'' said new North Texas coach Grant McCasland, the former Baylor assistant who recruited Lecomte. ''You look at his size and know he's always had to fight uphill.''

Listed at 5-foot-11, Lecomte is the only player on the Baylor roster shorter than 6-3.

When still in Belgium, Lecomte would watch NBA games online, as well as college games and the NCAA Tournament. He was already familiar with those bright Baylor jerseys, though he took another path to get to Waco.

Former Miami assistant coach Michael Huger had played pro basketball in Belgium and knew Lecomte's coaches. The Hurricanes offered him a spot without ever seeing him in person.

''I got lucky,'' Lecomte said. ''That was one of the only schools that really offered me. I just needed one chance, one team that wanted me, and I thought Miami would have been a great fit.''

While he started 40 of 71 games during two seasons with the Hurricanes, Lecomte decided to leave after standout point guard Angel Rodriguez left Kansas State for two final seasons at Miami along with some other transfers.

McCasland, who had been aware of him as a high school and amateur player on Belgian national teams, visited Lecomte after he left Miami.

''I had a great feeling, and I just loved it,'' Lecomte said. ''I just loved the opportunity.''

Except for having to sit out last season because of NCAA transfer rules. He was able to practice countless hours with the team and on his own, but couldn't play until this season - when Baylor needed a point guard.

''I just worked so hard on my game. I was in the gym every day, every night,'' he said. ''I would have never thought one day I would be like I'm not going to play for a year. That would have been impossible for me. But now I did it and I overcame it, it was all worth it.''

McCasland, who won 20 games at Arkansas State in his only season as head coach there before taking the North Texas job this week, said Lecomte became an elite player because of the time he spent in the gym on his own.

There were several other game-winning moments before Southern Cal.

In the Bahamas on Thanksgiving week, Lecomte scored Baylor's last 11 points in a 71-63 win over VCU. In his first Big 12 home game, Lecomte finished only 2-of-9 shooting but made a high-arcing shot on a short jumper over a defender with eight seconds left to beat Iowa State 65-63. There was also a game-clinching 3-pointer with 23 seconds left in a 78-75 win at Ole Miss.

''I really call it instinct,'' Lecomte said. ''Just playing without thinking or having any doubts or anything. ... When I play my best is when I don't think, and I just play by instinct.''

[StarDust Bum]

Dorsey living up to X-Factor reputation in the Big Dance
March 22, 2017

Tyler Dorsey provided a preview of his tournament success in early February when the Ducks hosted then-No. 5 Arizona.

The sophomore scored 23 points, including six 3-pointers, and the Ducks routed the Wildcats 85-58. Oregon's 16 total 3-pointers in that game were its most since opening Matthew Knight Arena in 2011.

After the victory, Dillon Brooks summed up his teammate: ''Tyler's the X-factor on our team.''

Dorsey is solidifying his reputation in the NCAA Tournament. On Sunday, he had 27 points on 9-of-10 shooting as third-seeded Oregon rallied to beat No. 11 Rhode Island 75-72 in Sacramento, California.

Dorsey hit two clutch 3-pointers, including a contested go-ahead 3 from atop the arc with 38.4 seconds to play.

''I was joking with him, `Nine for 10, how the heck did you miss that one shot?''' coach Dana Altman said.

The victory sent the Ducks (31-5) through to the Sweet 16 for the second straight season and third time in the past five years. They'll face seventh-seeded Michigan on Thursday in Kansas City, Missouri.

The Wolverines (26-11) rallied to knock out second-seeded Louisville 73-69 on Sunday to earn their first trip to the Sweet 16 since 2014.

The team that emerges will face the winner of Thursday's later game between top-seeded Kansas and No. 4 Purdue at the Sprint Center.

Dorsey has been building toward this moment. He's averaged 23.6 points in the last five games, stringing together five straight 20-point games for the first time this season.

''It's just my teammates. They've been finding me, and all I've been doing is spotting up and making the simple play and the right play, the right basketball play,'' Dorsey said. ''Like coach always says, keep my focus first on defense and rebounding and the offense, let it come. That's all I've been doing these last couple games, and my teammates have been having confidence in me and I've been knocking down the shots.''

In Oregon's opening game against No. 14 seed Iona, Dorsey scored 24 points to lead four players in double figures for a 93-77 victory. Fourteen of his points came in the opening half.

Last season, the Ducks won a school-record 31 games while claiming the Pac-12 regular season and tournament titles. They earned a first-ever No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and advanced to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2007.

Dorsey, who hails from Pasadena, California, averaged 13.4 points and 4.3 rebounds in 35 starts as a freshman. Overall this season, he's averaging 14 points and 3.4 rebounds.

The Ducks earned a share the Pac-12 regular season title with Arizona this year, then lost by three points to the Wildcats in the conference tournament final. Oregon was stunned when senior big man Chris Boucher tore his left ACL in the semifinals.

Albeit in a different role, Dorsey has been able to pick up some of the slack.

''He's a player. That scorer mentality I want him to have, but defense and rebounding, when he focuses on those two, he becomes a special player. He becomes really special,'' Altman said. ''I think that's part of the reason why he's exploded here lately, is that he's been a complete player.''

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 22

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

UIC at CCAR 07:00 PM

CCAR -4.0 *****

U 153.5

ILL at UCF 07:00 PM

UCF -3.5 *****

IDHO at TXST 08:00 PM

TXST -4.5

O 131.5 ******

UVU at WYO 09:00 PM

UVU +3.5 *****

O 159.5 *****

CSB at UTA 09:00 PM

UTA -4.0 ******

O 143.0 ******

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Prop bets for tonight’s NCAA tournament games:

— Over/under, total 3-pointers made in Purdue-Kansas game: 16.5

— Over/under, total 3-pointers made in West Va-Gonzaga game: 14.5

— Over/under, total 3-pointers made in Michigan-Oregon game: 17.5

— Over/under, total 3-pointers made in Xavier-Arizona game: 13.5

— Largest lead by either team in Purdue-Kansas game: 15.5 points

— Largest lead by either team in West Va-Gonzaga game: 14 points

— Largest lead by either team in Michigan-Oregon game: 12.5 points

— Largest lead by either team in Xavier-Arizona game: 16.5 points

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Worlds colliding: Madcap comedian Carrot Top was at Phillies’ spring training Wednesday, and was seen talking to former Phils’ manager Charlie Manuel.

Carrot Top’s dad worked for NASA; he was a rocket scientist. Seriously.

12) You know it might be a bad day when you’re a marginal major league player, you get a start in a road spring training game, and you forget your jersey. Oy.

Happened to Allen Webster of the Rangers, a guy who has pitched in 28 big league games (23 starts), so he should know better. Webster wound up giving up three runs in three IP, putting eight guys on base in a game Texas won 7-4.

11) In the 1987-88 NBA season, home teams won 67.9% of games; this season, that number is down to an all-time low of 57.4%. Teams traveling on private planes plays into that some, but an article on ESPN.com says one of the main reasons why road teams win more now is that players on the road party a lot less than they used to.

10) Basketball TV guy Doug Gottlieb, who recently jumped from CBS to FOX, will interview for the head coaching job at Oklahoma State (his alma mater) today. Gottlieb’s dad was a high school coach; his brother is an assistant coach at Oregon State.

9) Didn’t take VCU long to replace Will Wade with former Rice coach Mike Rhoades, who went 23-12 with the Owls this season— he was 47-52 in three years at Rice, after inheriting a 7-23 team three years ago.

By the way, as part of Wade’s contract at VCU, LSU will have to play a home/home series with the Rams- that was part of Wade’s buyout in his contract.

8) At the WBC, Team USA was DH’ing Giancarlo Stanton and sitting Paul Goldschmidt; why? I’ve had Stanton on my fantasy team since he was an 18-year old in the Florida State League. He is one of my favorite players, but no way in hell is he as good a hitter as Goldschmidt.

7) Padres’ TV guys were saying the ballclub wasn’t real happy about how little Yangervis Solarte played for Venezuela; they used him mostly as a pinch-runner. Bottom line is this: these teams are getting ready for the season- they want their guys getting AB’s in late March, not being subs.

6) Rory McIlroy lost 2 & 1 to Soren Kjeldsen at the World Golf Match Play tournament, but he did hit a drive 410 yards. Don’t see that a lot.

Jason Day withdrew from the tournament to be with his ailing mother. We wish her well.

5) In 13 years as a major league manager, Terry Collins is 925-925.

4) It is amazing to me that in most states, high school basketball doesn’t have a shot clock. There is a shot clock here in New York; protects the sport from overbearing coaches who strangle the game. Basketball is a much better spectator sport with a shot clock.

3) I don’t mind the WBC, I fully understand why it exists (to grow the game), but I’d much rather watch a spring training game. Just means more to me; I’m not a big nationalistic guy.

2) United States 8, Puerto Rico 0— Guy doing play-by-play on MLB Network oversold this tournament like he was Al Michaels in Lake Placid in 1980, but Americans win this event for first time ever. Puerto Rico didn’t get a hit until the 7th inning. Now everyone can go back to their major league teams and we can get ready for the season to start in ten days.

1— Mentioned yesterday that Chuck Barris passed away; the host of The Gong Show wrote an article for a magazine back in the 80’s, talking about how he was a vendor at Shibe Park during the 1950 World Series. He cut his hand at the same time one of the pitchers got hit with a line drive. In the First Aid room, everyone tended to the pitcher and ignored his bleeding hand. He got promoted as a vendor because they felt guilty about ignoring him.

Later in the same article, Barris tells a story about how he proposed to his second wife- they’re making out on the couch while he’s trying to watch the Raiders’ game on TV over her shoulder— he had bet on Oakland. She is bugging him to get married, so he tells her if the Raiders win this game, they’ll get married. Raymond Chester scores a touchdown, the Raiders win, and he was on the hook.

A great character; he was also a hell of a lot smarter than he let on.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, March 23

Xavier @ Arizona

Game 817-818
March 23, 2017 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Xavier
71.563
Arizona
73.172
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1 1/2
140
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
145
Dunkel Pick:
Xavier
(+7 1/2); Under

West Virginia @ Gonzaga

Game 815-816
March 23, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
West Virginia
72.917
Gonzaga
78.793
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Gonzaga
by 6
141
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Gonzaga
by 3
148 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Gonzaga
(-3); Under

Michigan @ Oregon

Game 813-814
March 23, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan
76.810
Oregon
72.975
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 4
151
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 1
146 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan
(-1); Over

Purdue @ Kansas

Game 811-812
March 23, 2017 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Purdue
70.656
Kansas
81.638
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas
by 11 1/2
162
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas
by 4
156 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas
(-4); Over


Friday, March 24

Butler @ North Carolina

Game 877-878
March 24, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Butler
73.097
North Carolina
77.142
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Carolina
by 4
158
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Carolina
by 7 1/2
152 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Butler
(+7 1/2); Over

UCLA @ Kentucky

Game 875-876
March 24, 2017 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UCLA
74.362
Kentucky
77.901
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 3 1/2
174
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UCLA
by 1
168 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(+1); Over

South Carolina @ Baylor

Game 873-874
March 24, 2017 @ 7:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Carolina
64.570
Baylor
76.144
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baylor
by 11 1/2
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baylor
by 3
137 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baylor
(-3); Under

Wisconsin @ Florida

Game 871-872
March 24, 2017 @ 9:55 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wisconsin
72.466
Florida
76.443
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 4
126
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida
by 1 1/2
131 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(-1 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 23

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PURDUE (27 - 7) vs. KANSAS (30 - 4) - 3/23/2017, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PURDUE is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
PURDUE is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
PURDUE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
PURDUE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
PURDUE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
PURDUE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
PURDUE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
PURDUE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
PURDUE is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PURDUE is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
PURDUE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
PURDUE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MICHIGAN (26 - 11) vs. OREGON (31 - 5) - 3/23/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
OREGON is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
MICHIGAN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
MICHIGAN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons

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W VIRGINIA (28 - 8) vs. GONZAGA (34 - 1) - 3/23/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GONZAGA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games this season.
GONZAGA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
GONZAGA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
GONZAGA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
GONZAGA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
W VIRGINIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
W VIRGINIA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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XAVIER (23 - 13) vs. ARIZONA (32 - 4) - 3/23/2017, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
XAVIER is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
XAVIER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in March games this season.
XAVIER is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
XAVIER is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
XAVIER is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
XAVIER is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
XAVIER is 225-176 ATS (+31.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
XAVIER is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against XAVIER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, March 24

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WISCONSIN (27 - 9) vs. FLORIDA (26 - 8) - 3/24/2017, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
FLORIDA is 126-93 ATS (+23.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 75-47 ATS (+23.3 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
WISCONSIN is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 148-109 ATS (+28.1 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
FLORIDA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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S CAROLINA (24 - 10) vs. BAYLOR (27 - 7) - 3/24/2017, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
S CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 1-0 against the spread versus S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
BAYLOR is 1-0 straight up against S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UCLA (31 - 4) vs. KENTUCKY (31 - 5) - 3/24/2017, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when the total is 160 to 169.5 over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 18-29 ATS (-13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 85-59 ATS (+20.1 Units) in March games since 1997.
UCLA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 2-1 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 2-1 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUTLER (25 - 8) vs. N CAROLINA (29 - 7) - 3/24/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 292-240 ATS (+28.0 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
BUTLER is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BUTLER is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BUTLER is 95-67 ATS (+21.3 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
BUTLER is 72-34 ATS (+34.6 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
BUTLER is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against ACC opponents since 1997.
BUTLER is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) in March games since 1997.
BUTLER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BUTLER is 144-103 ATS (+30.7 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
BUTLER is 72-34 ATS (+34.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
BUTLER is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
BUTLER is 76-42 ATS (+29.8 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
BUTLER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BUTLER is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUTLER is 1-0 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
BUTLER is 1-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAB
Short Sheet

Thursday, March 23

Purdue at Kansas, 9:35 PM ET
Purdue: 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive overs
Kansas: 3-10 ATS after a game where they covered the spread

Michigan at Oregon, 7:05 PM ET
Michigan: 7-1 ATS in all neutral court lined games
Oregon: 6-19 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs

West Virginia at Gonzaga, 7:35 PM ET
W Virginia: 5-12 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8
Gonzaga: 21-9 ATS after playing a game as favorite

Xavier at Arizona, 10:05 PM ET
Xavier: 3-10 ATS after playing a game as an underdog
Arizona: 12-2 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more of their last 10


Friday, March 24

Wisconsin at Florida, 9:55 PM ET
Wisconsin: 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders
Florida: 2-11 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less

South Carolina at Baylor, 7:25 PM ET
S Carolina: 1-7 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds
Baylor: 6-0 ATS after 2 consecutive non-conference games

UCLA at Kentucky, 9:35 PM ET
UCLA: 6-15 ATS when the total is 160 to 169.5
Kentucky: 69-40 ATS after a win by 6 points or less

Butler at North Carolina, 7:05 PM ET
Butler: 12-3 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12
N Carolina: 8-18 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders


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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 23

Thursday’s NCAA games
Michigan won its last seven games, winning first two NCAA games by total of five points; they’re 12-3 outside Big 14, but did lose 102-84 at UCLA in December. Oregon won 10 of last 11 games; they scored 84 pts/game in winning pair last weekend. Ducks allowed 77.3 pts/game in last three games, w/o best shot blocker Boucher. Since 2009, 7-seeds are 4-0 in Sweet 16 games against 3-seeds; oddly, the 7-seed was favored in two of those games. Last time a 3-seed beat a 7-seed in this round was Xavier over West Va 79-75 in OT in ’08. Since ’06, Pac-12 teams are 10-6 in West Region semis/finals, but 1-11 in other regions’ semis/finals- this is Midwest Region.

Since 1999, Gonzaga is 2-5 in Sweet 16 games; they lost by 3 to Syracuse LY, beat UCLA in ’15. Bulldogs are 14-0 outside WCC- they beat Iowa St of Big X by hoop on neutral floor in November. West Virginia is 2-4 in this round, losing badly to Kentucky two years ago. WVa won five of last six games, scoring 86-83 in first two tourney games. Since ’06, 1-seeds are 8-10 vs spread when facing a 4-seed in this round, 3-0 the last two years. Overall, favorites are 13-3 vs spread in this round the last two years. Can Gonzaga handle the press? Biggest? in this game; they played South Dakota State/Northwestern last two games- this will be much different.

Purdue blew 19-point lead to Iowa State Saturday, beat Cyclones by 4; Boilers won 10 of last 12 games- they’re in Sweet 16 for first time since ’09/’10, when they lost to UConn by 12, Duke by 13. Over last decade, Kansas is 5-2 in Sweet 16 games, 3-4 vs spread. Jayhawks are 2-1 vs Big 14 teams, beating Nebraska/Michigan State, losing season opener to Indiana. Since ’06, 1-seeds are 8-10 vs spread when facing a 4-seed in this round, 3-0 the last two years. Overall, favorites are 13-3 vs spread in this round the last two years. Big 14 teams are 9-5 SU vs Big X teams this season, but are 2-4 against the spread when favored.

Sean Miller came to Arizona from Xavier; he and Chris Mack know each other well. Arizona is 3-1 in Sweet 16 under Miller; underdog covered all four of those games. Wildcats beat Xavier 68-60 (-11.5) in this round two years ago (Xavier led by 4 with 7:25 left). Arizona won 26 of last 28 games; they scored 86 pts/game in five postseason games. Xavier won five of last six games despite playing a freshman PG; they scored 83.5 pts/game in first two tourney games. Over last 5 years in regional semis, double digit seeds are 6-2 vs spread if not playing another double digit seed. Since ’10, 2-seeds are 9-7 vs spread in this round, 3-1 last two years.

Friday’s NCAA tournament games
Roy Williams has been a 1-seed in four regionals where 1-4 seeds all made it to this point; he advanced to Final Four three of those four years. Since 1993, North Carolina is 12-1 in this round, losing to Wisconsin two years ago; Tar Heels are #113 experience team, starting three juniors two seniors- they’re 14-2 outside ACC, but didn’t play any Big East teams. Butler won six of last eight games; they beat 13/12-seeds to get here last weekend. Bulldogs are #63 experience team, starting three seniors- they’re in Sweet 16 for first time since Brad Stevens bolted for NBA. Since ’06, 1-seeds are 8-10 vs spread when facing a 4-seed in this round, 3-0 the last two years.

Before last week, South Carolina hadn’t won an NCAA game since 1973; Gamecocks scored 93-88 points in beating Marquette/Duke LW after coming into tourney on 3-6 skid. Carolina has two terrific seniors (Thornwell/Notice) but otherwise is very young- they force turnovers 24.5% of time (#4). Baylor is 13-0 outside Big X; they scored 91-82 points in wins over New Mexico St/USC last week. Bears are #102 experience team starting two sophs, two juniors- they’re #305 at protecting the ball, bit of a red flag. Since 2009, 7-seeds are 4-0 in Sweet 16 games against 3-seeds. Gamecocks were in NYC in November, beating Syracuse in Brooklyn.

UCLA made 10-23 on arc, won 97-92 in 83-possession track meet at Rupp Arena Dec 3, where six of 10 starters were freshmen. Six Bruins scored between 13-19 points. UCLA plays #15 pace but have thin bench (#331 minutes); they won 12 of last 13 games, are 15-0 outside Pac-12, with wins over Texas A&M/Kentucky of SEC. Kentucky won its last 13 games; they’re 12-2 outside the SEC, splitting pair with Pac-12 (beat ASU by 46). Wildcats play #22 pace; their subs play #217 minutes- they had to work in both games last week, wins over No Kentucky/Wichita State. Over last two years, Pac-12 teams are 13-2 vs SEC teams (both losses Kentucky over ASU).

Wisconsin is 16th team in last 30 years to upset a 1-seed in 2nd round; previous 15 teams went 8-7 SU in this round, 7-5 vs spread as an underdog. Badgers are #59 experience team; they’ve got guys who’ve played/won a lot together (115-34 last four years, 13-3 in NCAA games)- they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine NCAA tourney games as an underdog. Florida won its two games LW by 15-26 points, after coming in on a 1-3 skid; Gators are #71 experience team, starting a junior, two seniors- they weren’t in last two NCAA’s, so this is new for players/coach. Florida is #11 in country at defending the arc; like just about everyone, they prefer a faster pace than Wisconsin.

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NCAAB

Thursday, March 23

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Trend Report
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7:09 PM
MICHIGAN vs. OREGON
No trends available
Oregon is 16-6-1 ATS in its last 23 games
Oregon is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

7:39 PM
WEST VIRGINIA vs. GONZAGA
No trends available
Gonzaga is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Gonzaga's last 7 games

9:39 PM
PURDUE vs. KANSAS
No trends available
Kansas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas's last 5 games

10:09 PM
XAVIER vs. ARIZONA
No trends available
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games


Friday, March 24

7:09 PM
BUTLER vs. NORTH CAROLINA
No trends available
North Carolina is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Carolina's last 9 games

7:29 PM
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. BAYLOR
No trends available
Baylor is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing South Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor's last 6 games

9:39 PM
UCLA vs. KENTUCKY
No trends available
Kentucky is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games
Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

9:59 PM
WISCONSIN vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 6 games
Florida is 12-3 SU in its last 15 game

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NCAAB

Thursday, March 23

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March Madness Sweet 16 betting preview and odds: Michigan vs Oregon
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Michigan has won 12 of its last 14 games, including six in a row since its charter plane skidded off the runway en route to the Big Ten Tournament.

(7) Michigan Wolverines vs (3) Oregon Ducks (+1, 146.5)

Two of the nation's most efficient offenses will be on display when third-seeded Oregon battles No. 7 seed Michigan in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region semifinals Thursday in Kansas City, Mo. The Ducks breezed past Iona 93-77 before rallying for a 75-72 victory against Rhode Island and hope to advance to the Sweet 16 for the second straight year by avenging a 70-63 loss to the Wolverines in the Legends Classic at Barclays Center in 2014.

"I remember those guys from my freshman year in Brooklyn," junior guard Dillon Brooks told reporters. "We want payback and revenge." Michigan won 12 of its last 14 games, including six in a row since its charter plane skidded off the runway en route to the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan outlasted Oklahoma State 92-91 in a first round shootout before exacting a measure of revenge for the loss to Louisville in the 2013 National Championship game by downing the Cardinals 73-69 to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third time in five years. The Wolverines won all eight of their neutral court games in 2016-17 and hope to continue their fairy tale run by improving to 5-0 against the Ducks.

TV: 7:09 ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: The Sweet 16 matchup opened as a Pick 'Em but the betting public quickly pushed the spread in Michigan's direction and, as of Wednesday afternoon, the underdog Oregon Ducks were sitting at +1. The total hit the board at 146.5 and, despite a brief jump to 147, currently sits on the opening number. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "On Straight bets the Action is heavy on Michigan. On Parlays and on Teasers the Action is on Michigan and the Over. The Money Line Action is on Michigan(-118)."

INJURY REPORT:

Michigan - No injuries to report.

Oregon - F Chris Boucher (Out For Season, knee), F M.J. Cage (Out Indefinitely, knee).

ABOUT MICHIGAN (26-11 SU, 17-17 ATS, 20-12-2 O/U): Sophomore forward Moritz Wagner set a career high with 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting to lift the Wolverines past Louisville for the first time in program history. D.J. Wilson continued his strong play in the tournament by scoring 17 points, including four clutch free throws in the final 30 seconds, and blocked three shots while Derrick Walton Jr. added 10 points, seven rebounds and six assists against the Cardinals. "We just always find a way and we earned 40 more minutes," Wagner told reporters. "To be able to continue this journey with this team with the way we are playing means so much."

ABOUT OREGON (31-5 SU, 20-15 ATS, 17-18 O/U): Tyler Dorsey continued his recent tear as he poured in 27 points, including the go-ahead 3-pointer with 38.4 seconds remaining, in the comeback win against Rhode Island. Brooks scored 19 points and pulled down seven rebounds to become the Ducks' all-time leader in NCAA Tournament scoring with 123 points as he passed Joseph Young (105) and Elgin Cook (117). Jordan Bell secured a game-high 12 rebounds as the Ducks erased an 11-point deficit in the second half and matched a program record for most wins in a season.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
* Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
* Over is 5-0-1 in Wolverines last 6 non-conference games.
* Over is 4-0 in Ducks last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of users are taking slight chalk with the Michigan Wolverines and Over is picking up 75 percent of the totals wagers.


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NCAAB

Thursday, March 23

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March Madness Sweet 16 betting preview and odds: West Virginia vs. Gonzaga
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This West Region semifinal could be a defensive ballte. Gonzaga is 4th in the nation in points allowed (61.1), while WVU leads the country in turnovers per game (20.1).

(4) West Virginia Mountaineers vs. (1) Gonzaga Bulldogs (-7.5, 145)

Game to be played at SAP Center, San Jose, California

Top-seeded Gonzaga looks for its third trip to the Elite Eight when it faces pressure-based West Virginia in Thursday's NCAA Tournament West Region Sweet 16 contest at San Jose, Calif. Ball-handling will be of utmost importance for the Bulldogs when they face the fourth-seeded Mountaineers, who are the national leaders in turnovers forced at 20.1 per game.

West Virginia's relentless approach is known as "Press Virginia" and the squad said it feels overlooked despite the school reaching the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in 10 seasons under coach Bob Huggins. "I'm just tired of everybody doubting us," junior guard Jevon Carter told reporters. "We just go out there and prove people wrong. It just feels good." Gonzaga boasts the best record in the nation but its season will be a labeled as a disappointment if it doesn't reach the Final Four for the first time in program history. "Ultimately we're going to have to accomplish that Final Four to kind of put it to rest and all that," Bulldogs coach Mark Few said at a press conference. "I think this is the 19th straight to the tournament, which isn't easy."

TV: 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: No. 1 seed Gonzaga hit the board as 3-point chalk and have been bet up to the current number of Bulldogs -3.5. The total opened at 147.5 and has been bet up one point to the current number of 148.5.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "On Straight bets the action is pretty even, but with more customers on Gonzaga. On parlays the majority of the action is on Gonzaga, while on teasers the bettors are on West Virginia and the game to go Over. When it comes to the Money Line action, the betting is pretty Even, but with more customers on West Virginia."

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA: The Mountaineers average 10.2 steals per game with Carter, the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, totaling 91 (sixth nationally) and backcourt mate Tarik Phillip adding 63. Carter (13.3) and sophomore forward Esa Ahmad (11.3) are the lone players scoring in double digits while senior forward Nathan Adrian (averages of 9.7 points and a team-best six rebounds), Phillip (a senior averaging 9.6 points) and junior guard Daxter Miles Jr. (8.8) also are key figures. West Virginia averaged 84.5 points in its NCAA Tournament victories over Bucknell and Notre Dame and tallied 80 or more on 23 occasions.

ABOUT GONZAGA: Freshman reserve Zach Collins is highly regarded by NBA talent evaluators and the 7-footer averaged 12 points and blocked a total seven shots in the NCAA Tournament victories over South Dakota State and Northwestern. Collins averages 10.3 points and 5.7 rebounds as a frontcourt complement to senior center Przemek Karnowski (12.4 points, 5.9 rebounds) and junior power forward Johnathan Williams (10-point average, team-best 6.6 boards). Junior point guard Nigel-Williams Goss (16.7 average) will be counted on to neutralize the West Virginia pressure while senior shooting guard Jordan Mathews (10.7) supplies the outside shooting touch with 74 3-pointers.

TRENDS:

* West Virginia is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a neutral site underdog.
* Gonzaga is 9-2 ATS following an ATS loss.
* Over is 4-0 in West Virginia's last four non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Gonzaga's last five games as a favorite between -0.5 and -6.5.

CONSENSUS: The early consensus is giving the edge to the No. 1 seed in this West region semifinal with 61 percent of the public on Gonzaga. As for the total, 64 percent of wagers are on the Over.

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NCAAB

Thursday, March 23

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March Madness Sweet 16 betting preview and odds: Purdue vs Kansas
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Senior guard Frank Mason III leads the Jayhawks, who won 10 of 11 to reach 30 victories, and Purdue leans on 6-9 sophomore Caleb Swanigan to key its offense.

(4) Purdue Boilermakers vs (1) Kansas Jayhawks (-5, 156.5)

Top-seeded Kansas boasts a lethal perimeter game and No. 4 seed Purdue owns one of the nation’s top inside threats as the teams prepare to do battle in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region semifinals Thursday in Kansas City, Mo. Senior guard Frank Mason III leads the Jayhawks, who won 10 of 11 to reach 30 victories, and Purdue leans on 6-9 sophomore Caleb Swanigan to key its offense.

“We haven’t seen that this year, a team that plays through their bigs,” Kansas coach Bill Self told reporters. “That’s how they play. Certainly, they are really good at it. … We’ve got to come up with a way to eliminate post touches and still get to their shooters because they can stretch it from all the spots to the perimeter.” The Jayhawks averaged 95 points in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament with Mason and freshman swingman Josh Jackson each averaging at least 20. Swanigan is supplying 18 points, 13 boards, 5.5 assists and two blocks per game in the Big Dance as the Boilermakers - Big Ten regular-season champions - face their biggest test just a short ride from the Kansas campus in Lawrence. “We enjoy playing on the road,” Purdue junior guard Dakota Mathias told reporters. “. … We’ve won in a lot of hostile environments, a lot of big-time places, so this isn’t going to be any different.”

TV: 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: Kansas opened as 4-point favorites and the betting public hit them hard and the books bumped the line up to -5 by Monday - where it remains today. The total hit the board at 156.5 and has been fairly steady all week. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Purdue - F Jacquil Taylor (Out For Season, ankle).

Kansas - C Udoka Azubuike (Out For Season, wrist).

ABOUT PURDUE (27-7 SU, 19-10-2 ATS, 18-12-1 O/U): Swanigan not only produces big numbers (18.5 points, 12.6 rebounds overall), but his presence creates enough openings for the Boilermakers to drain 305 shots from 3-point range with a 40.4 percent success rate. Junior forward Vince Edwards is one of five players to make at least 40 from behind the arc and is 19-of-30 from the field overall in the NCAAs, averaging 21.0 – more than eight points above his average. Junior center Isaac Haas (12.6 points, 58.8 percent shooting) gives the Boilermakers another major inside threat Kansas must handle.

ABOUT KANSAS (30-4 SU, 13-18-1 ATS, 16-16 O/U): Mason is averaging 24.2 points over the last five games to push his team-leading mark to 20.8 - to go along with 5.2 assists - and is shooting 47.2 percent from 3-point range with 76 makes. Junior backcourt mate Devonte’ Graham, who leads the team with 89 makes from 3-point range, had an outstanding start to the NCAA Tournament while averaging 17 points on 11-of-17 shooting – 8-of-13 from beyond the arc. Jackson is averaging 20 points in the Big Dance while junior guard Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk adds 12.5 and boasts eight of his 66 3-pointers in his last four games.

TRENDS:

* Boilermakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12.
* Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
* Over is 8-0 in Boilermakers last 8 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Jayhawks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

CONSENSUS: 66 percent of users are taking chalk with the Kansas Jayhawks and Over is picking up 61 percent of the totals wagers.


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NCAAB

Thursday, March 23

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March Madness Sweet 16 betting preview and odds: Xavier vs. Arizona
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Arizona is red hot winning 10 of its last 11 games and are 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 overall. While Trevon Bluiett has led the postseason surge for Xavier.

Xavier Musketeers vs. Arizona Wildcats (-7.5, 145)

Game to be played at SAP Center, San Jose, California

After knocking off two higher seeds in the first two rounds, Xavier aims for another upset in Thursday’s Sweet 16 as the 11th-seeded Musketeers face No. 2 Arizona in an NCAA Tournament West Region matchup in San Jose, Calif. Xavier is back in the regional semifinals for the second time in three years following victories over Maryland and Florida State, while red-hot Arizona won 11 of its last 12 games.

Former Xavier coach Sean Miller is in his eighth season at Arizona, which defeated Oregon to claim the Pac-12 tournament title and advanced to the Sweet 16 following victories over North Dakota and Saint Mary’s. Arizona freshman guard Rawle Alkins broke his right index finger in the first half of Saturday’s 69-60 victory over the Gaels but returned to action fewer than eight minutes later and helped the Wildcats recover from an early deficit. Alkins started all but one game this season and expects to be in the lineup Thursday against Xavier, which began March in the midst of a six-game losing streak but is shooting 50 percent in postseason play. “Our guys, despite all the adversity they’ve been hit with and the social media that tells them how bad they are and how poor they are, they stayed with it and believed in themselves and our coaching staff,” coach Chris Mack told reporters. “It's a credit to them, and I’m just really proud of them.”

TV: 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Wildcats hit the board as 7.5-point favorites and were quickly bet down to a converted touchdown. However, they have since moved back to the opening number. The total meanwhile, has slowly and continually been bet up since opening at 143.5. The current number is 145. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT XAVIER: The Musketeers struggled initially after point guard Edmond Sumner tore an ACL on Jan. 30, but junior guard Trevon Bluiett sparked the team’s postseason surge by averaging 25 points on 51.7 percent shooting in the NCAA Tournament. Forwards Kaiser Gates, Tyrique Jones and Sean O'Mara combined for 38 points against Florida State as Xavier controlled the paint against the bigger Seminoles. Gates is averaging 12.5 points and shooting 7-of-11 from 3-point range in the NCAA Tournament for the Musketeers, who will be tested again by Arizona’s imposing front line.

ABOUT ARIZONA: Center Lauri Markkanen and guard Allonzo Trier combined for 30 points and 17 rebounds against Saint Mary’s as the Wildcats took control late by slowing down Gaels center Jock Landale and shooting 59.1 percent in the second half. Trier, who missed the season’s first 19 games due to a PED suspension, scored all 14 of his points against the Gaels in the final 17 minutes and has become a more assertive scorer in recent weeks. The Wildcats’ deep frontcourt includes 6-11 Chance Comanche and 7-foot Dusan Ristic, who averaged 12.5 points and four rebounds against North Dakota and Saint Mary’s.

TRENDS:

* Xavier is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Arizona is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Xavier's last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Arizona's last five games overall.

CONSENSUS: The early consensus thinks 7.5-points is too many to lay with Arizona as 61 percent of wagers are on Xavier to cover. In regards to the total, the public likes the Over in this matchup, with 69 percent of bet on it.

[StarDust Bum]

Bettors crushing Kansas in Sweet 16 matchup against Purdue

Kansas is getting much of the betting support so far, after winning and cashing in its first two NCAA Tournament games.

All season long, Kansas was one of the worst teams in the nation against the spread. But a good NCAA Tournament start has caught bettors’ eyes. Patrick Everson checks in on where Sweet 16 action is with Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas on the Strip, and with the lines manager for offshore sportsbook GTBets.eu.

No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks – Open: -4.5; Move: -5

Kansas is getting much of the betting support so far, after winning and cashing in its first two NCAA Tournament games. The Jayhawks (30-4 SU, 13-18-1 ATS) opened with a 100-62 wipeout of No. 16 seed UC Davis as a massive 22.5-point favorite Friday, then bounced No. 9 Michigan State 90-70 giving 7.5 points Sunday.

Purdue (27-7 SU, 19-10-2 ATS) also won and covered twice last week to reach the Sweet 16. The Boilermakers topped No. 13 seed Vermont 80-70 Thursday as an 8.5-point fave, then held off a furious rally by No. 5 Iowa State on Saturday to win 80-76 as a 1-point chalk.

“Kansas opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and with the action coming in on the Jayhawks at 2.5/1 from the start, the line was pushed to 5,” GTBets’ lines manager said. “No real sharp action to speak of yet, but it certainly seems that the public is on the Jayhawks.”

The Wynn opened Kansas at -4.5 late Sunday night and reached 5.5 late Monday morning, but the line has settled at 5 for the past 48 hours. This Midwest Region game tips off at 9:39 p.m. ET Thursday.


No. 11 Xavier Musketeers vs. No. 2 Arizona Wildcats – Open: -7.5; Move: None.

Xavier is the big surprise story, as the only double-digit seed to survive the first weekend. The Musketeers (23-13 SU, 17-18 ATS) have won five of their last six, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in that stretch while posting a pair of double-digit victories to open the NCAA Tournament. Xavier opened with a 76-65 West Region win over No. 6 seed Maryland as a 2-point underdog Thursday, then blasted No. 3 Florida State 91-66 as a 7-point pup on Saturday.

Arizona (32-4 SU, 19-14-3 ATS) has peeled off six straight wins (5-0-1 ATS). The Wildcats opened the tourney with a 100-82 victory to push as 18-point chalk Thursday against No. 15 North Dakota, then topped No. 7 St. Mary’s 69-60 giving 4.5 points Saturday.

“We’ve got Arizona -7.5 over Xavier, no movement there,” Avello said, while looking ahead to a potential regional final pitting Arizona against No. 1 seed Gonzaga. “If Arizona and the Zags meet again, Arizona will be the favorite in that game. They did meet earlier in the year, and the Zags got the best of it. Arizona’s healthy right now, so they are the favorite to win that region, slightly, 13/10. Gonzaga is 3/2.”

Avello said No. 4 seed West Virginia is 3/1 in the West, while Xavier is 8/1 to get through this weekend.

GTBets.eu saw a little bouncing back and forth after posting the Xavier-Arizona contest, which wraps up Thursday’s four-game slate, tipping off at 10:09 p.m. ET.

“The line opened with Arizona a 7.5 point favorite, which is where it is currently after a short tenure at 7 on Sunday afternoon,” GTBets’ lines manager said. “An interesting development is that 55 percent of the parlays are on Xavier, while the straight-bet action is just about dead even. The total has already gone up 1.5 points, from 143.5 to 145, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it creeps up another half-point before the opening tip.”


No. 3 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats – Open: +1; Move: Pick.

This is arguably the matchup everyone is interested in, between two of college basketball’s most storied programs, who will tip at 9:39 p.m. ET Friday in the South Region semis. Kentucky will be looking for some payback in this game, after a 97-92 home loss to UCLA as a healthy 11-point favorite on Dec. 3. The Wildcats (31-5 SU, 18-17-1 ATS) beat No. 15 seed Northern Kentucky 79-70 as a 20-point fave Friday to open the Big Dance, then held off No. 10 Wichita State 65-62 to push as a 3-point chalk Sunday.

UCLA (31-4 SU, 17-18 ATS) dropped No. 14 Kent State 97-80 giving 18.5 points on Friday, then won and cashed as a 3.5-point favorite Sunday against No. 6 Cincinnati, 79-67.

“The line has seemingly settled at pick ‘em, after UCLA opened as a 1-point favorite,” GTBets’ lines manager said. “A bit of sharp money came in on Kentucky +1. However, the betting action has been dead even on the game for the last day and a half.”

Avello opened this game a pick ‘em at the Wynn on Monday morning and went to UCLA -1 a couple of hours later, where the line remains today.

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 - West Regional
March 22, 2017

Games played Thursday at the SAP Center in San Jose, California

Gonzaga (-3) vs. West Virginia (148½) Thursday 7:39 PM ET

Gonzaga’s second try as a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament has been more successful than 2013’s Round of 32 exit but it hasn’t come with the Bulldogs looking like the national title threat many expected to see.

Against South Dakota State, Gonzaga battled through a tight first half before winning comfortably by 20 with a marginal shooting performance.

The Bulldogs fell to 0-2 ATS in the Tournament after winning by just six last Saturday vs. Northwestern as a 22-point lead dissolved and the Bulldogs were aided by a controversial call late that might have led to an even closer finish.

Outside shooting has been a problem for Gonzaga as in two games in Salt Lake City the Bulldogs shot 26 percent from 3-point range while also missing 23 free throws for a just a 57 percent clip at the stripe with both figures well below the season averages for one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation.

Gonzaga’s defense played well but the competition will only get tougher from here on out heading to San Jose for the West region semifinal matchup with West Virginia.

Gonzaga delivered non-conference wins over Florida and Arizona, two teams that are still playing in the NCAA Tournament plus another high quality win over Iowa State to avoid be penalized for its light WCC schedule the way teams from smaller conferences like SMU, Cincinnati, and Wichita State were by the selection committee.

Those wins came in November and early December however and the narrow win over Arizona came with the Wildcats missing two key players as there are valid concerns about the potential for Gonzaga to hold up this weekend, likely to playing Arizona again if they get by legendary coach Bob Huggins Thursday night.

Like Gonzaga, West Virginia has been rated as one of the nation’s elite defensive teams all season long. The Mountaineers had a huge win at Virginia in December to boost a non-conference resume that was not otherwise noteworthy.

The Big XII rated as the nation’s top conference in most measures and West Virginia went 12-6 in that difficult league including beating regular season champions Kansas once and conference tournament champion Iowa State twice. T

hree Big XII losses came in overtime as the Mountaineers weren’t far away from giving Kansas a greater push for the conference title finishing in a tie for second in the league with Baylor and Iowa State.

After losing in the Big XII tournament final the Mountaineers held on in a tougher than expected game with Patriot champion Bucknell before delivering a convincing win over Notre Dame to advance to the Sweet 16.

West Virginia impressed in that closely-lined game with the Irish leading wire-to-wire but a lot went right with an officiating crew that mostly let the teams play with a lot of physical contact allowed.

West Virginia commits fouls at one of the highest rates in the nation with its aggressive pressure on defense but in that matchup it was a Notre Dame team that rarely fouls and rarely commits turnovers that was whistled for more fouls while committing 14 turnovers, several on plays where the whistle could have been blown.

The Mountaineers also shot over 57 percent from 3-point range and hit 81 percent at the free throw line despite shooting below 68 percent at the line for the season heading into that game.

West Virginia is a tougher matchup on a quick turnaround as few teams play like they do. Gonzaga will be aided by the long layoff from Saturday to Thursday for this matchup, getting time to prepare for the pressure. With a pair of seven-footers Gonzaga should have some massive size edges in the paint in this matchup but they must be able to get the ball up the court without turnover issues, something they didn’t do in a high turnover showing vs. Northwestern.

Neither team was that reliant on outside shooting in the regular season but strong 3-point shooting has made a big difference for West Virginia in the tournament so far while Gonzaga’s struggles beyond the arc seemed to snowball into other problems in the first two games.

Ultimately whoever is able to knock down those big shots may end up moving on to the regional final vs. Xavier or Arizona.

These teams played in the 2012 NCAA Tournament with a 77-54 win for Gonzaga as a one-point favorite in a 7/10 matchup in Pittsburgh. They also met in non-conference action the following two seasons with another Gonzaga blowout in November 2012 with an 84-50 result in Spokane with the Bulldogs also winning in December 2013 in Morgantown 80-76.

Gonzaga’s once amazing spread record this season has eroded a bit of late with a 3-5 ATS mark the past eight games while West Virginia is just 2-7-1 ATS the past 10 games.

Arizona (-7½) vs. Xavier (153) Thursday (TBS, 10:09 p.m. ET)

As a #11 seed Xavier is the only remaining double-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament in what has been a redemptive run for the Musketeers.

Chris Mack’s squad last season was 27-5 to earn a #2 seed in the field only to be upset by Wisconsin on a last second shot in the Round of 32.

This season’s team wound up losing six games in a row late in the season to fall to the NCAA Tournament bubble with its three previous wins only coming against lowly DePaul before the Musketeers got a critical Big East tournament win over Butler to seal a bid.

Butler is also still playing this weekend in what has been a mixed NCAA Tournament campaign for the Big East with Villanova’s early exit and Round of 64 losses for Creighton, Seton Hall, and Marquette.

Xavier drew a favorable Round of 64 draw opposite a vastly over-seeded Maryland team as the #6 seed, winning 76-65 as just a slight underdog despite the seeding. Xavier then pulled off what has been the biggest upset of the tournament by the closing spread by blowing out #3 seed Florida State with a 91-66 result as a 7½-point underdog.

The late season slide as well as this great tournament run has been without Edmond Sumner, a star sophomore guard for Xavier who was injured in late January.

Senior Trevon Blueitt also missed time on the losing streak and has carried the team of late with 50 points in the two tournament games, shooting over 53 percent from 3-point range.

Xavier has been an excellent rebounding team this season, posting an edge in the Round of 32 vs. the big and athletic Seminoles but the big difference in that game was a nearly 65 percent shooting game from 3-point range while Florida State shot 19 percent on 21 shots from beyond the arc.

Xavier shot just 33 percent in Big East play, ranking just 7th in the conference from 3-point range as that success was not the norm. Turnovers can also be a concern for this squad as they head into a difficult matchup in San Jose.

Arizona looked like a national title contender in the 2014 and 2015 tournaments but failed with a Final Four berth on the line in back-to-back seasons vs. Wisconsin. Last season’s team declined defensively in a successful but less consistent season and wound up bounced in the Round of 64 against Wichita State.

Arizona had some personnel issues early with injuries and the absence of Allonzo Trier but through some early growing pains the Wildcats wound up winning a share of the Pac-12 title while capturing the Pac-12 Tournament title.

Beating Michigan State in the opener wound up being the only non-conference victory of any quality however before Arizona finished 3-2 vs. the other two Pac-12 contenders that are also still alive in the tournament.

Arizona allowed 82 points in Thursday’s up-tempo win over North Dakota before getting a hard fought win Saturday night vs. St. Mary’s. Arizona trailed most of that game and was in a much tougher fight than the nine-point final margin indicates. A 23-8 edge at the line plus a slight edge in turnovers proved to be the difference in moving on with a few tough calls going against St. Mary’s down the stretch.

Arizona plays two 7-footers as the size on the team is excellent but this is a very young group and Xaiver has big guards and overall size if not matching the frontcourt presence that Arizona has.

The case can certainly be made that the season metrics that don’t rate Arizona as an elite contender don’t account for Trier missing 19 games and Parker Jackson-Cartwright missing six games but Arizona has actually been a much worse defensive team with Trier back.

This is an incredibly young team reliant on three freshmen with the Sean Miller and the program carrying demons from failing to make the Final Four in several past opportunities. A

rizona is likely to be the biggest favorite of the Sweet 16 games, a distinction this team hasn’t likely earned but they are facing the biggest surprise upstart in the tournament to perhaps deserve that type of favoritism.

Both teams have been on hot ATS runs with Xavier on a 6-0 ATS run since the regular season finale and Arizona 5-0-1 ATS since the regular season finale.

These teams met in the Tournament just two years ago with Arizona winning 68-60 as a 10½-point favorite in the Sweet 16 in Los Angeles in a 2/6 matchup. Xavier led 53-49 with just over seven minutes to go before Arizona closed out that game on a great run with both teams shooting terribly from 3-point range.

Only two current Wildcats played in that game for a combined total of nine minutes. Bluiett started and played 23 minutes for Xavier with J.P. Macura also contributing off the bench for a Xavier team that was led by current Musketeer Tim Stainbrook’s older brother Matt.

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 - Midwest Regional
March 22, 2017

The Midwest Region semifinals will take place Thursday night at Sprint Center in Kansas City. In the lid-lifter, seventh-seeded Michigan will take on third-seeded Oregon, while Kansas will face Purdue in the nightcap game.

No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oregon

-- As of early Wednesday night, most betting shops had Michigan (26-11 straight up, 17-17 against the spread) installed as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 147.5. The line opened as a pick ‘em with a 146-point tally.

-- Since its plane skidded off the runway at the Detroit airport in a terrifying incident the day before Michigan was to play Illinois at the Big Ten Tournament, John Beilein’s team hasn’t lost and has had the look of a team destined for great things. Nobody was injured physically in the accident and the Wolverines have obviously been fine mentally.

-- Michigan has won seven in a row while going 6-1 ATS. The lone non-cover came on a buzzer beater that we’ll get to in a moment. Going back further, Beilein’s bunch has won 12 of its last 14 contests, compiling a 10-4 spread record.

-- After Michigan won four games in four days over Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin to win the Big Ten Tourney, it drew a tough Round of 64 game against Oklahoma State. To this minute, I believe it’s the best game that’s been played in the Big Dance. As a matter of fact, Michigan’s 92-91 win netted the most points we’ve seen in a Tourney game. This back-and-forth affair saw the Wolverines hit 11-of-15 shots from 3-point range in the second half alone. They needed everyone of them, in addition to clutch free-throw shooting down the stretch to knock off the Cowboys, who covered the number thanks to Jawun Evans’s deep trey at the buzzer. OSU was a 2.5-point underdog. The 183 combined points soared ‘over’ the 155-point total.

-- Derrick Walton was the catalyst against Oklahoma State, producing 26 points, 11 assists, five rebounds, two steals and one blocked shot. Walton drained 6-of-9 launches from 3-point land. D.J. Wilson added 19 points, five rebounds and four blocked shots, while Zak Irvin and Muhammad-Ali-Abdur-Rahkman scored 16 points apiece. Abdur-Rahkman dished out four assists without committing a turnover. The Wolverines won despite being beaten on the boards by a 34-16 margin.

-- Michigan drew No. 2 seed Louisville in the Round of 32. This rematch of the 2013 national-title game allowed the Wolverines to exact revenge when they captured a 73-69 victory as three-point underdogs. Moritz Wagner led the way with 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting from the field. Wilson finished with 17 points and three blocked shots, while Irvin was also in double figures with 11 points. Walton tallied 10 points, seven rebounds and six assists without a turnover. Thanks to Walton, UM committed only six turnovers against U of L’s vaunted pressure defense. We should note, however, that the Wolverines were killed on the glass against, with the Cardinals outrebounding them by a 33-23 margin.

-- Walton leads Michigan in scoring (15.4 points per game), assists (4.9 APG) and steals (1.1 SPG). Irvin (12.9 PPG), Wagner (12.2 PPG) and Wilson (11.0 PPG) are also double-figure scorers. Wagner is hitting 40.9 percent of his 3-balls.

-- Oregon (31-5 SU, 20-15 ATS) advanced to the Sweet 16 even though it lost starting center Chris Boucher to a season-ending knee injury in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals. Boucher was averaging 11.8 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.5 blocked shots per game.

-- Oregon advanced to the Round of 32 by knocking off Iona 93-77 as a 15-point ‘chalk.’ Tyler Dorsey paced the winners with 24 points and five rebounds on 9-of-13 shooting from the field. Dillon Brooks added 18 points, four boards, four assists and a pair of blocked shots, while Payton Pritchard also scored 18. Jordan Bell recorded a double-double with 17 points and 12 rebounds.

-- Dana Altman’s squad needed more heroics from Dorsey against Rhode Island on Sunday. His 3-pointer with 11 seconds remaining put the Ducks ahead to stay, as they advanced to a second straight Sweet 16 and their third in five seasons. Dorsey was lights out against the Rams, scoring a game-high 27 points on 9-of-10 field-goal attempts. He drained 4-of-5 from downtown. Oregon trailed by eight at intermission. Brooks contributed 19 points and seven rebounds, while Bell finished with six points, 12 boards and two blocks.

-- Oregon’s leading scorer is Brooks, who averages 16.4 PPG and is burying 40.9 percent of his 3-balls. Bell (10.8 PPG) leads the Ducks in rebounding (8.3 RPG), FG percentage (62.6%) and steals (1.3 SPG), while Dorsey (14.0 PPG) is making 40.2 percent of his treys.

-- These schools last met in 2014 when Michigan captured a 70-63 win over Oregon as a four-point favorite at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Irvin scored a team-high 19 points, while Walton had six points, four rebounds and two assists without a turnover. Brooks had 14 points and seven rebounds before fouling out in the losing effort.

-- The ‘under’ is 18-17 overall for the Ducks, but they’ve seen four consecutive ‘overs’ and six in their last seven outings.

-- The ‘over’ has been a money maker in Michigan games, cashing at a 20-12-1 overall clip.

-- Tip-off in KC is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Kansas

-- As of early Wednesday night, most books had Kansas (30-4 SU, 13-18 ATS) listed as a five-point favorite with a total of 157. The Boilermakers were +190 on the money line (risk $100 to win $190).

-- Kansas has won 10 of its last 11 games with the lone defeat coming to TCU in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals when star freshman Josh Jackson was serving a one-game suspension. Five of KU’s last six wins have come by double-digit margins.

-- Kansas advanced to the Round of 32 by destroying UC Davis 100-62 as a 23-point ‘chalk.’ Frank Mason was the catalyst with 22 points, eight assists and five rebounds. Josh Jackson added 17 points and seven boards, while Devonte’ Graham produced 16 points, four assists and four steals. Sviatoslav Mykhaliluk also scored 16 points and blocked a pair of shots, and Landen Lucas finished with 13 points and 11 rebounds.

-- Bill Self’s squad broke open a tight game in the second half to send Michigan State packing with a 90-70 triumph as a 7.5-point favorite. The 160 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 148.5-point total. Jackson scored 14 of his 23 points in the second half, while Mason had 20 points, two steals and five assists without a turnover. Graham finished with 18 points, four boards, four assists and three steals, and Lucas had 10 points and 11 boards.

-- KU owns a 5-5-1 spread record in 11 games as a single-digit favorite.

-- KU is ranked fifth in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (40.6%), 11th in FG percentage (49.1%) and 15th in scoring (83.4 PPG).

-- Purdue (27-7 SU, 19-10 ATS) won the Big Ten regular-season title, only to lose in overtime to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. This left Matt Painter’s team with fresh legs last week. The Boilermakers ended the nation’s longest winning streak and took the cash in an 80-70 win over Vermont as 8.5-point favorites in the Round of 64. They led by just one at halftime but took advantage of the Catamounts losing their lone senior, Kurt Steidl, to a knee injury late in the first half. Vincent Edwards paced the winners with 21 points, while Caleb Swanigan added 16 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots. Dakota Mathias contributed 13 points, six boards and five assists compared to only one turnover. Carsen Edwards and P.J. Thompson scored 12 and 10 points, respectively.

-- Purdue advanced to its first Sweet 16 in seven seasons by beating Iowa State 80-76 as a one-point ‘chalk.’ The Boilermakers raced out to a 19-point lead in the second half, only to see the Cyclones rally to take the lead in the final minutes. But Thompson banged home a 3-ball to put Purdue up one and Swanigan’s ensuing bucket opened up a three-point advantage. Thompson hit a pair of clutch free throws to put the game on ice. Swanigan finished with 20 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists, while Edwards had 21 points, 10 boards and four assists without a turnover. Isaac Haas was also in double figures with 14 points.

-- Purdue has been an underdog three times this year, going winless both SU and ATS. The Boilermakers lost at Michigan, at Louisville and at home vs. Villanova.

-- Purdue is led by Swanigan, who averages team-bests in scoring (18.5 PPG), rebounding (12.6 RPG) and blocks (0.8 BPG). Edwards is averaging 12.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists while draining 42.5 percent of his 3’s.

-- These schools met in the Round of 32 five years ago with KU rallying to win 63-60 as an eight-point favorite. The 123 combined points fell ‘under’ the 142-point tally. The Jayhawks trailed for most of the game and overcame a 26-point effort from Robbie Hummel.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for KU (16-16), but the ‘over’ has cashed in each of its last four contests.

-- The ‘over’ is 18-12-1 overall for Purdue, cashing in its last three games and five of its last six.

-- CBS will provide the broadcast approximately 30 minutes after the Michigan-Oregon game ends.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, MARCH 23

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MICH at ORE 07:09 PM

MICH +0.0

O 146.5

WVU at GONZ 07:39 PM

GONZ -3.0

O 150.0

PUR at KU 09:39 PM

PUR +5.5

O 155.5

XAV at ARIZ 10:09 PM

ARIZ -7.5

U 144.0