Announcement

**Udog** · 11-03-2016, 08:27 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 9 right around the corner:

— Falcons are 2-14 vs spread in their last 16 games as a favorite.

— Dallas won/covered its last six games.

— Tennessee is 4-12 vs spread in its last 16 games.

— San Francisco is 10-5-1 in last 16 games as a home dog.

— Denver is 21-9 vs spread in its last 30 divisional games.

— Carolina is 3-7 vs spread in its last ten games.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud

nking out loud

13) Cubs 8, Indians 7 (10)– Baseball needed this; high drama, a rain delay in extra innings and a big market team (#6 payroll) ending a 108-year title drought. Hopefully they got great TV ratings.

As for Cleveland, well, the Cavaliers won the NBA title in June.

Think about the Miami Marlins, who won the World Series in their 5th year of existence (1997, against the Indians), then a second one six years later, the only two times they’ve made the playoffs.

Indians haven’t won a World Series since 1948; life can be weird.

12) Minnesota Vikings are 5-2, having a good year in the first year in their new domed stadium, but OC Norv Turner suddenly quit on Wednesday, apparently shocking everyone in the organization.

Vikings lost their QB for the season with a knee injury in training camp; they traded a 1st-round pick for Sam Bradford, but scored only 11 offensive TD’s in their first seven games- it is hard to break in a new QB when he arrives after training camp.

New OC Pat Shurmur worked with Bradford in St Louis/Philly; until someone fixes Minnesota’s offensive line, it might not help.

11) Late Tuesday night (very late), I stumbled upon the live broadcast of the final table at the World Series of Poker from Las Vegas, with heads-up play going on for the $8M first prize.

Poker is good TV, in an odd way; I got a research project done in the four hours I had it on. Finally went to bed at 5:20am, as one of the analysts, pro poker player Antonio Esfandiari, was bemoaning how passive the player who was behind was playing.

10) First prize was $8,005,310; second place was $4,661,228, so they were playing heads-up for $3,344,082. Over 6,000 people started in the Main Event back in July. Quite an accomplishment to win it. Or finish 2nd.

9) Big 14 is going to televise six Friday night games next season, which is going to be controversial because major colleges have traditionally left Friday nights to high school games.

8) Was sitting in a bar having lunch the other day and a college golf tournament was on TV; college golfers carry their own golf bags and those bags are a lot smaller than ones PGA golfers use.

7) Redskins’ OT Trent Williams is suspended for four games; those games are against: Vikings-Packers-Cowboys-Cardinals.

Williams is Washington’s best lineman- this isn’t good for them.

6) There are “Make America Great Again” hats on EBay, signed by Donald Trump that are selling for anywhere from $500-800. What a country.

5) Sacramento Kings lost in OT at Miami Tuesday, their 15th loss in a row in south Florida. Sacramento is better this year but DeMarcus Cousins has trouble controlling his emotions, and as a result, he gets hosed on key calls. His sixth foul in this game was an offensive foul call that was just terrible.

4) CFL schedule gets weird sometimes; it is 20 weeks long, with each team getting two byes. Ottawa-Winnipeg play twice a year; this year’s meetings are in Weeks 19-20; who thought that was a good idea?

3) I’ll sound old saying this, but it is true; our society has gotten ridiculously soft. NBA teams now routinely rest players if team has games on consecutive nights.

Why? AAU teams play as many as three teams in a day; I don’t see any kids collapsing from exhaustion. But pros don’t want to play some guys two nights in a row. Oy.

Ron Boone is a broadcaster for the Utah Jazz; when he played, and he played damn well (16 pts/game in his career) he played in every one of his team’s 1,041 games and schedules in the 70’s were lot different than now; no charters, some 3 games/3 nights stretches.

People nowadays pay serious money to watch these guys play; they deserve a good show.

2) Quote of the Day #2:
“I’m a professional athlete. What professional athlete don’t have a gun? I have a wife and I have a son at home. My job is to protect them at all costs, and my job is to protect myself as well even though I know I have security here, but I have to protect myself as well.”
Eagles WR Josh Huff, with an ominous quote

1— More from Mr Huff:
“I’m from Houston. You can’t trust a lot of people in Houston. There’s always somebody out to get you. You’ve got to protect yourself. Even when I’m back in Houston, I always have a gun on me, because there’s been several instances in Houston where I’ve lost a friend to gun violence, and he was just in the wrong place at the wrong time, so why would I let that happen to me?”

**Udog** · 11-03-2016, 08:34 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, November 3

Oklahoma City @ Golden State

Game 709-710
November 3, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
121.070
Golden State
134.978
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 14
221
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 11 1/2
226 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-11 1/2); Under

Indiana @ Milwaukee

Game 707-708
November 3, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
115.607
Milwaukee
115.703
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
Even
221
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 2 1/2
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(+2 1/2); Over

Denver @ Minnesota

Game 705-706
November 3, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
114.610
Minnesota
122.210
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7 1/2
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
209
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-3 1/2); Under

Boston @ Cleveland

Game 703-704
November 3, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
123.029
Cleveland
129.610
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 6 1/2
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 9 1/2
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+9 1/2); Under

Sacramento @ Orlando

Game 701-702
November 3, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sacramento
118.306
Orlando
117.166
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Sacramento
by 1
195
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Orlando
by 1 1/2
199 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(+1 1/2); Under

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, November 3

Orlando won three of last four games with Sacramento; over is 6-4 in last ten series games. Road team is 7-3 in last ten series games; Kings won three of last four visits to Orlando (over 3-1). Sacramento lost three of last four games, losing OT game in Miami Tuesday; they’re 1-2 as road underdogs. Under is 3-2 in Kings’ games. Orlando is off to a 1-3 start (over 2-2); they lost only home game, to Miami.

Cavaliers won six of last seven games with Boston (5-2 vs spread); under is 8-2 in last ten series games. Celtics lost three of last four visits here; they’re 3-3 vs spread in last six visits to Cleveland. Cavaliers are off to a 4-0 start, winning home games by 29-6-8 points (1-2 as home favorite). Boston beat the Bulls by 7 last night; they’re off to a 3-1 start (over 2-2).

Road team won six of last seven Denver-Minnesota games; Nuggets won last three meetings, by 3-12-4 points. Denver won its last five visits here (under 3-2). Timberwolves are 1-2 (over 2-1), winning only home game by 36 over Memphis. Nuggets lost their last two games by total of five points; all three of their games (1-2) went over the total.

Road team won six of last nine Indiana-Milwaukee games; Pacers won four of last five visits here, with three of last four staying under the total. Indiana split its first four games (over 3-1), losing first two road games by 9-17 points. Bucks also split their first four games (over 3-1); they’re 0-2 vs spread at home (1-1 SU) this season.

Golden State rallied from down 3-1 to nip Thunder in 7 games in playoffs last spring; now Durant is on Warriors, facing his old team for first time. Thunder won/covered once in last six visits to Oakland; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Golden State won its last three games, all on road, by 8-6-23 points (over 3-1). They lost only home game, to San Antonio. Thunder had tough game vs Clippers in LA last night; they’re 4-0, with three wins by 6 or less points.

NBA

Thursday, November 3

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. ORLANDO
Sacramento is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Orlando's last 11 games
Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
BOSTON vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston

8:00 PM
INDIANA vs. MILWAUKEE
Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Indiana is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 12 games at home

8:00 PM
DENVER vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games at home
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

10:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Oklahoma City is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing Oklahoma City

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**Udog** · 11-03-2016, 09:54 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 3

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SACRAMENTO (2 - 3) at ORLANDO (1 - 3) - 11/3/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 71-91 ATS (-29.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 45-70 ATS (-32.0 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 150-189 ATS (-57.9 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 28-45 ATS (-21.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 3-1 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 3-1 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (3 - 1) at CLEVELAND (4 - 0) - 11/3/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 6-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 8-3 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (1 - 2) at MINNESOTA (1 - 2) - 11/3/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 190-236 ATS (-69.6 Units) after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 5-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 6-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (2 - 2) at MILWAUKEE (2 - 2) - 11/3/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 60-86 ATS (-34.6 Units) in home games off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 4-3 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 5-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (4 - 0) at GOLDEN STATE (3 - 1) - 11/3/2016, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-42 ATS (-17.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 116-90 ATS (+17.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 106-81 ATS (+16.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 62-43 ATS (+14.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 40-24 ATS (+13.6 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 66-47 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 8-5 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-4 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-03-2016, 01:09 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, November 3

Sacramento at Orlando, 7:05 PM ET
Sacramento: 7-19 ATS after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds
Orlando: 18-6 OVER in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Boston at Cleveland, 8:05 PM ET
Boston: 54-35 ATS after playing a game as favorite
Cleveland: 18-8 UNDER against Atlantic division opponents

Denver at Minnesota, 8:05 PM ET
Denver: 25-13 ATS as a road underdog
Minnesota: 11-23 ATS in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5

Indiana at Milwaukee, 8:05 PM ET
Indiana: 13-4 ATS vs. division opponents
Milwaukee: 1-9 ATS after a game with 30 or more assists

Oklahoma City at Golden State, 10:35 PM ET
Oklahoma City: 10-26 ATS off a road win by 3 points or less
Golden State: 33-18 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more

**Udog** · 11-03-2016, 06:47 PM

NBA

Thursday, November 3

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Thursday's NBA Game of the Day: Thunder at Warriors
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Kevin Durant is averaging 28.5 points and shooting 57.4 percent from the floor through four games with his new team.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-10.5, 225.5)

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook square off as adversaries for the first time in their NBA careers when Durant’s new team, the Golden State Warriors, host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday. Durant departed the Thunder as a free agent in the offseason and tension is high as he faces his former teammates for the first time.

Golden State rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the Western Conference finals to defeat Oklahoma City and then Durant opted to join the Warriors on July 4. Durant once again denied earlier this week that he is at odds with Westbrook but has confessed the strong relationship they had when they became teammates in 2008 had changed over the years. “You don’t hang out with your 19-year-old buddies no more every day, if you’re growing up and doing your own thing,” Durant told reporters. “Our personalities, my interests, went another way, and his went another way, and I respected that.” Westbrook has led Oklahoma City to a 4-0 start to begin the post-Durant era and he hit the winning jumper in Wednesday’s 85-83 road victory over the Los Angeles Clippers.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 11-point home favorites and that line was bet down to -10.5 by Thursday morning. The total hit the board at 226.5, dropped immediately to 224.5, and crept back up to 225.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U): Westbrook signed a three-year, $85 million extension after Durant’s departure and he has embraced the opportunity to finally be viewed as the face of a franchise. He had 35 points in the victory over the Clippers and is averaging 37.8 points, 10.5 rebounds and 10 assists but refused to answer any questions about Durant in the postgame session with reporters. But he did have this to say shortly after Durant left: “We’ve been together eight years. You don’t throw that away. Obviously, he’s now with a new team. But we definitely will talk. Eventually.”

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Durant is averaging 28.5 points and shooting 57.4 percent from the floor through four games with his new team. Coach Steve Kerr said Durant has seamlessly meshed with his new teammates — “he’s perfect for what we already do,” Kerr said — and the coach understands that the meeting with the Thunder is important to Durant. “Every player is excited when he plays against his former team,” Kerr told reporters. “It’s a little different for Kevin, because he’s a superstar and the spotlight is on him. Everybody’s going to be asking him questions and the TV cameras will be on him and Russ.”

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Warriors are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games.
* Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Thunder last 8 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
* Thunder are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Golden State.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the Thunder as huge road underdogs at a rate of 58 percent and 58 percent of the totals wagers have been on the Over.

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Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/3

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/3

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