Announcement

**Udog** · 10-25-2016, 10:18 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

— Median price for a ticket to tonight’s World Series game is $1,100.

— Big night in Cleveland tonight; Cavaliers get their championship rings and the Indians play in the World Series.

— Jets’ QB Geno Smith is out for the year with a torn ACL.

— In his last 13 games, Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford has thrown 32 TDs, only five INTs.

— I’m not sure why, but Hank Aaron was an honorary captain for Michigan’s football game Saturday.

— Broncos 27, Texans 9– Rough night for Osweiler, but Houston is still atop AFC South, at 4-3 (4-0 at home, 0-3 on road).

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Random NBA knowledge

With NBA starting the week, some notes you might find interesting……….
13) Brooklyn Nets are terrible and do not have control of their first round draft pick until 2019. Hard to get better that way.

New GM of the Nets is Sean Marks, who was a throw-in in the Knicks-Toronto Oakley-Camby trade in 1998. Marks comes from the San Antonio front office. We wish him good luck; he’ll need it.

12) Portland Trailblazers had the #29 payroll in the NBA last year; they paid to keep their core players this spring and now have a top five payroll.

11) It was 948 days in between Joel Embiid’s last game at Kansas and his first preseason game for the 76ers. He did play well in preseason though.

10) Kyrie Irving scored 19.6 pts/game in regular season LY, 25.2 in playoffs. How much will he score this regular season?

9) Andre Drummond of the Pistons just signed a contract worth $130M for five years. He shot 35.5% from the foul line last year. This bothers me.

8) When Oklahoma City Thunder players have dinner together on the road, they all put their cellphones in the middle of the dinner table, to eliminate distractions.

7) According to a survey released last week, the average NBA player spends $42,500 a month.

6) This quote on the Milwaukee Bucks from an anonymous NBA scout: “Jason Kidd’s had a lot of influence in personnel moves and I don’t think that’s been a good thing.”

5) Minnesota Timberwolves’ top three scorers last year were all 21 years old or younger. Minnesota was the #28 defensive team LY; in Tom Thibodeau’s five years as coach of the Bulls, they were a top 6 defense four times. Thibodeau is Minnesota’s new coach.

4) In three years under Doc Rivers, Clippers are 166-80 in regular season, 15-18 in playoffs.

3) Memphis Grizzlies used 28 players last year, most in NBA history.

2) Now-retired Tim Duncan averaged 25.2 minutes/game for the Spurs LY; looks like 36-year old Pau Gasol will be his primary replacement. Better on offense, not nearly as good on defense.

1) NBA regular season is 1,229 games long; we’ll have knowledge on every one of them on the Hoops page, starting tonight. Plus we’ll do college hoop every night too. Enjoy!!

**Udog** · 10-25-2016, 10:23 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 25

San Antonio @ Golden State

Game 505-506
October 25, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
126.350
Golden State
132.510
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 6
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 9 1/2
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(+9 1/2); Over

Utah @ Portland

Game 503-504
October 25, 2016 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
118.961
Portland
129.723
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 11
188
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 5 1/2
193 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(-5 1/2); Under

New York @ Cleveland

Game 501-502
October 25, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
113.601
Cleveland
136.929
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 23 1/2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 9
204 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-9); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 25

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NEW YORK (32 - 50) at CLEVELAND (73 - 30) - 10/25/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 5-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 6-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
7 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (40 - 42) at PORTLAND (49 - 44) - 10/25/2016, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 70-102 ATS (-42.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 4-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 5-3 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (73 - 19) at GOLDEN STATE (88 - 18) - 10/25/2016, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 115-87 ATS (+19.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 62-42 ATS (+15.8 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 954-833 ATS (+37.7 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 144-100 ATS (+34.0 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 4-3 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 25

Not much to go on for 7-10 days, but we’ll share the info we have.

Tuesday’s games
Cavaliers are getting their rings while the Indians open the World Series nearby at the same time. Knicks lost their last six games with Cleveland but covered five of last seven series games, including their last four visits here. Last seven series games stayed under the total.

Portland won three of its last four games with Utah; over is 7-2 in last nine series games. Jazz lost four of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread).

Warriors won four of last six games with San Antonio; under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Home side won five of last six series games; Spurs lost their last three visits to Oakland, by 11-30-11 points.

NBA

Tuesday, October 25

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:30 PM
NEW YORK vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New York's last 9 games on the road
New York is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing New York

10:00 PM
UTAH vs. PORTLAND
Utah is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Portland
Utah is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Portland
Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games when playing Utah

10:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. GOLDEN STATE
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games
Golden State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 10-25-2016, 10:28 AM

NBA betting road map: Opening week can be very profitable in certain situations

The Golden State Warriors made the biggest free agent signing of this year (and, perhaps, any year) when they inked Kevin Durant to a 2-year contract.

It seems like just yesterday that the Cleveland Cavaliers were hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy as 2015-16 NBA Champions, but here we are with another season tipping off this week. Al McMordie, with the first edition of his weekly betting roadmap series, focuses on the league's top three title contenders.

Spread Watch

The Golden State Warriors made the biggest free agent signing of this year (and, perhaps, any year) when they inked Kevin Durant to a 2-year contract (with a player option after the first year). Golden State has now compiled the best team in NBA history, as it has two of the top four, and four of the top 14 players in the entire league. Last season, Durant, Steph Curry and Draymond Green all ranked within the eight best players in ESPN's Real Plus-Minus. Klay Thompson, though not in the top eight, was 3rd Team All-NBA last year, and had an 18.67 PER.

And if that weren't daunting enough for the rest of the league, then consider that all four of the Warriors' superstars are in the prime of their careers. It's not unreasonable to think the Warriors will win the NBA Championship each of the next five years. And I personally believe they will go 16-0 in this year's Playoffs (the Warriors, at -130 odds to win the Title is a fantastic bet). Of course, for our individual game betting purposes, the Warriors are likely to be over-valued early in the season. Indeed, they went 6-1 in the Preseason, but were just 1-4-2 ATS.

This week, the Warriors will open the season at home vs. the Spurs (and have been installed as an 8.5-point favorite), and then finish the week with road games at New Orleans and Phoenix. Of the three games, I feel the middle game against the Pelicans will be the best opportunity to play on Golden State. They will have had two days off following their season-opener, and the Warriors are 54-21 SU and 48-26-1 ATS when playing with at least two days of rest. Additionally, Golden State won and covered all three games vs. New Orleans last season, and are 26-8-1 ATS the last 35 regular season meetings vs. New Orleans!

Total Watch

The Tom Thibodeau-era is underway in Minnesota - and make no mistake about it - he will transform the Timberwolves into one of the league's best defensive teams (just as he did with the Chicago Bulls, after taking over for Vinny Del Negro). In his first regular season with the Bulls they went 'under' the total 48-34, and most of the profit was made early in the season, as 21 of the Bulls' first 31 games in 2010 went 'under' the total.

Don't be surprised if the Timberwolves have a similar experience this season. In the Preseason, Minnesota went 'under' in six of its seven games (including each of the last six).

This week, the T-Wolves will play road games at Memphis and Sacramento, and each of those games is a solid candidate to be low-scoring. Last season, Memphis ranked in the bottom 10 in offense, and top 10 in defense. Meanwhile, all four of the Minnesota/Sacramento games last season went 'under' the total.

Injury Watch

The San Antonio Spurs will be without SG Danny Green for the first 10 games of the season, as he suffered a strained quadriceps injury last week. Though Green shot 10% below his career average last season (30.1% from long distance), he improved greatly in the playoffs (24-for-48, 50%). And he had surgery to correct a vision impairment issue in the off-season.

Notwithstanding his shooting woes last year, Green is an invaluable defender (perhaps the league's best in transition defense), and ranked No. 1 among shooting guards last season in ESPN's Real Plus-Minus defensive rating. So, he will be sorely missed the next few weeks.

The Spurs won a franchise-best 67 games last season, and had one of the best defensive seasons in NBA history, but should drop off significantly this year. Besides being without Green early on, the Spurs suffered major losses on their frontline. Defensive stalwart Tim Duncan retired, Boris Diaw was traded to Utah, and free agents David West and Boban Marjanovic signed with Golden State and Detroit, respectively.

This week, the Spurs will be challenged with four games in six days, including a road game at Golden State on Tuesday, and a road game at Miami on Sunday, when the Spurs will be playing without rest vs. a rested Heat squad. Last season, the Spurs went 2-6 ATS their last eight games when playing without rest vs. a rested foe, so the game at Miami could prove to be difficult.

Schedule Watch

This Tuesday will be an historic day in Cleveland. Not only will the Indians be playing in the World Series for the first time since 1997 (the first time ever that Game 1 of the World Series will be played in Cleveland), but the Cavaliers will open their season at home vs. New York, raise their championship banner, and accept their rings.

A lot of bettors like to go against the defending NBA Champion on its Banner Night, but that situation has been a 50-50 proposition over the years (NBA Champs are 13-12 ATS since 1991). Instead, I prefer to fade such teams on the road in their second game, and especially if they're matched up against an opponent that isn't off a straight-up loss, as the champs are 1-8 ATS in that situation since 1991. And that very well could be the case on Friday, when the Cavaliers will travel to Toronto (check Toronto's result vs. Detroit on Wednesday).

Even better: The Raptors will be playing with revenge from a 4-2 series loss last year in the Eastern Conference Finals.

**Udog** · 10-25-2016, 01:11 PM

NBA opening night betting cheat sheet and odds: Tuesday tripleheader

Kevin Durant joins fellow NBA MVP Stephen Curry and All-Stars Draymond Green and Klay Thompson in an offense that led the NBA in scoring last season.

The 2016-17 NBA season tips off Tuesday night with a trio of very interesting and entertaining games highlighted by banner night in Cleveland and the classic Western Conference clash between the San Antionio Spurs and the Golden State Warriors.

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers (-9.5, 204)

No team in the Eastern Conference added more big names in the offseason than the New York Knicks, but all the newcomers bring long injury histories and big question marks. The Knicks are one of several teams fighting for second place in the East behind the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers, who will receive their championship rings in a pregame ceremony before hosting New York in the season opener on Tuesday.

The Knicks signed former Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah and point guard Derrick Rose and brought in Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee to join Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis in new coach Jeff Hornacek's system. "I think we're definitely a work in progress," Noah told reporters. "We have a lot of work to do. We got to get better. We haven't had a lot of time to play together." The Cavaliers are very familiar with each other and brought back all the main pieces from last season's championship run and will be hosting the game in a festive atmosphere with the first game of the World Series between the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs taking place across the street at the same time. LeBron James and company are heavy favorites to win the Eastern Conference for the third straight year and continue the city of Cleveland's recent run of good fortune -- the NFL's Browns excepted.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as 9.5-point home favorites and the line has not waivered since being released. The total opened at 203, spiked immediately to 204.5, topped out at 205, and settled back down to the current number of 204. View complete line history here.

ABOUT THE KNICKS (2015-16: 32-50): Rose played in 66 games for the Bulls last season - his highest total since playing in 81 games in the 2010-11 campaign - but missed two weeks of training camp and played in only one preseason game while taking time off to be in court for a civil trial related to an alleged sexual assault. The former MVP, still just 28 years old and cleared of all charges stemming from the trial, averaged 16.4 points and 4.7 assists while shooting 42.7 percent from the floor last season and will be charged with running Hornacek's offense. New York ran Phil Jackson's preferred triangle offense exclusively under Derek Fisher and Kurt Rambis last season, but Hornacek is incorporating other philosophies into the attack.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (2015-16: 57-25): Cleveland overcame a 3-1 deficit in the finals to beat the Golden State Warriors last June, and coach Tyronn Lue is intent on limiting the wear and tear on James after the superstar made his sixth consecutive trip to the finals. James averaged 35.6 minutes during the 2015-16 regular season and bumped that number up to 39.1 during the postseason, and Lue expects those regular-season minutes to drop. “He understands that we want to keep his minutes down, and when there’s games where it makes sense to take off, we’re going to take those games off," Lue told reporters. "We’re being smart about the situation. We have one goal in mind, and that’s winning a championship."

TRENDS:

* Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
* Cavaliers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 vs. NBA Central.
* Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers (-5.5, 193.5)

Damian Lillard has set a lofty goal for the 2016-17 season and will start chasing his public declaration when the Portland Trail Blazers open the season against the visiting Utah Jazz on Tuesday. The star guard vows his intention is to win MVP honors this season, a feat that would require the Trail Blazers to significantly improve on last season's 44-38 record.

Lillard was superb last season when he ranked sixth in the NBA with a 25.1 scoring average and tied for eighth in assists at 6.8 and he expects to take another step upward. "I want to win MVP," Lillard told reporters. "If we come out and do the things we're capable of doing and we win games, then that means my performance will be at a level of MVP." Utah fell one victory short of a Western Conference postseason spot last season and will be without small forward Gordon Hayward (broken finger) and backup guard Alec Burks (knee) at the outset of the season, while power forward Derrick Favors (knee) is questionable for the opener. "It's tough because we don't have a full roster right now," new point guard George Hill told reporters. "And without a full roster, it's kind of hard to see exactly where we're at. Our focus right now is to get everyone healthy, but with the guys we have in there, I think we're moving in the right direction."

TV: 10 p.m. ET, ROOT (Utah), KGW (Portland)

LINE HISTORY: The Blazers hit the betting board as 6-point home favorites for their season opener against the Utah Jazz but on Monday that point spread was dropped down slightly to -5.5. The total opened at 193 and was bumped up a half point to 193.5. View complete line history here.

ABOUT THE JAZZ (2015-16: 40-42): Utah acquired Hill from the Indiana Pacers to strengthen a lackluster point guard situation, added veteran swingman Joe Johnson as a free agent and acquired veteran forward Boris Diaw from the San Antonio Spurs. Shot-blocking force Rudy Gobert (averages of 11 rebounds and 2.2 blocks last season) is back at center and shooting guard Rodney Hood (14.5 points) is expected to take another step forward but the team badly needs Hayward (19.7 points) and Favors (16.4 points, 8.1 rebounds) in the lineup. "You lose two of your best players -- obviously you want to have them on the court ready to go and everybody healthy," Hood told reporters. "We've got guys that are going to compete. We've got to see what happens. Hopefully we get those guys back quicker than we expect."

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (2015-16: 44-38): Lillard and backcourt mate C.J. McCollum (20.8 points, 4.3 assists) fuel a team that revamped quickly last season after losing longtime mainstay LaMarcus Aldridge as a free agent. Offseason additions such as swingman Evan Turner and center Festus Ezeli were pinpointed to fortify a bench that includes swingman Allen Crabbe and forward/center Meyers Leonard. Al-Farouq Aminu (10.2 points) and Maurice Harkless (6.4 points) will open the season as the starting forwards with Mason Plumlee (9.1 points, 7.7 rebounds) back as the center.

TRENDS:

* Jazz are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest.
* Under is 7-2-1 in Jazz last 10 road games.
* Over is 6-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 overall.
* Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Portland.

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors (-9, 212.5)

The Golden State Warriors set an NBA record with 73 wins in the regular season last year but could not finish it off with a second straight NBA championship, prompting the club to add the best free agent on the market over the summer. Kevin Durant will make his regular-season debut with the Warriors when they host the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday.

Durant joins fellow NBA MVP Stephen Curry and All-Stars Draymond Green and Klay Thompson in an offense that led the NBA in scoring last season, and the four thrived in brief spurts on the floor together in the preseason. “All in all, things are coming together,” coach Steve Kerr, tempering expectations, told reporters. “We’re not there yet, but we probably shouldn’t be there yet because we’re only a few weeks into this thing.” The Spurs were Golden State's closest challengers in the Western Conference during the 2015-16 regular season but fell in the conference semifinals and lost future Hall of Famer Tim Duncan to retirement after the playoffs. San Antonio filled that empty spot in the frontcourt with 36-year-old Pau Gasol and 33-year-old former Warrior David Lee.

TV: 10:30 p.m. TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 8-point home favorites for their much-anticipated 2016-17 debut. As we should expect for most of their games this season, the public is betting the Dubs and the books are having to move the line higher - Golden State is currently at -9. The total opened at 212, went up to 212.5, and has come back down to 211.5. View complete line history here.

ABOUT THE SPURS (2015-16: 67-15): San Antonio spent the last week fighting off rumors that All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge was unhappy with his role on the team behind breakout star forward Kawhi Leonard. "I'm winning. Of course I'm happy," Aldridge said on the Jim Rome radio show. "That's why I don't buy into the rumors. I feel like I do my job here and I feel like I've done everything that they've asked. That's why I haven't bought into the rumors." Leonard finished second to Curry in the MVP voting last season and is expected to help fill the leadership void left by the departure of Duncan.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (2015-16: 73-9): Golden State's five-man unit of Curry, Thompson, Green, Andre Iguodala and Harrison Barnes was the most efficient in the league last season and will now upgrade from Barnes to Durant. The move to the Warriors came with some criticism for Durant, though he and his new teammates insist they are shielding the outside noise. “Some people say we're villains," Green told reporters. "I don't think we're really going into it saying we're villains, we need to do this. Who cares? It's like, it really doesn't matter what people try to make you play. It's about getting on the court, getting between these lines and performing."

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.
* Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Warriors last 5 home games.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

**Udog** · 10-25-2016, 02:17 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, October 25

New York at Cleveland, 7:30 PM ET
New York: 5-7 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points
Cleveland: 51-44 ATS as a home favorite

Utah at Portland, 10:05 PM ET
Utah: 30-32 ATS as a road underdog
Portland: 17-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points

San Antonio at Golden State, 10:30 PM ET
San Antonio: 22-10 UNDER in road games first half of the season
Golden State: 17-6 ATS against Southwest division opponents

Announcement

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/25

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/25

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