The Bum's 2016 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

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NBA

Friday, April 21


After Cavs' crazy comeback covers the -2, #NBAPlayoffs2017 betting numbers look like this:
Faves: 14-5 SU/8-11 ATS
Totals: 11-8 Over/Under

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's NBA Essentials
April 21, 2017

Western Conference First Round
No. 3 Houston at No. 6 Oklahoma City (ESPN, 9:30 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (Rockets 3-1)
Nov. 16 Rockets at Thunder (-2.5) 105-103 (Under 218)
Dec. 9 Rockets (-1.5) at Thunder 102-99 (Under 224)
Jan. 5 Thunder at Rockets (-8) 118-116 (Over 227)
Mar. 26 Thunder at Rockets (-6) 137-125 (Over 230.5)

2016-17 Postseason (Tied 1-1)
Apr. 16 Thunder at Rockets (-7.5) 118-87 (Under 227.5)
Apr. 19 Thunder at Rockets (-7.5) 115-111 (Over 225.5)
**Game 4 will take place from OKC's Chesapeake Energy Arena on Sunday.

MVP votes were in before this tipped off, so this series has had no bearing on the verdict when a winner is crowned on June 26. That hasn't stopped those in the James Harden camp from going to the "told you so" card anyway. Thus far, Harden has been efficient in helping the Rockets earn a 2-0 series lead, while Russell Westbrook has taken everybody on the roller coaster demonstrating why he's so great and devisive at the same time.

It's all been on display, "It's a Small World"-style like the ride at Disneyland that sets you up with a tour on that neat virtual boat ride. To the left, we spy Westbrook's brilliance courtesy of a performance so great that it looked certain to lead the Thunder to a series split in Houston through three quarters. Then you see the poor decisions. The lack of trust in teammates breeds hesitancy in his ownmind. The breathless desire to succeed and the bulletproof confidence that both makes him great also makes it impossible for teammates to truly find the rhythm to help aid the cause.

Only Andre Roberson truly played well for the Thunder in Game 2, but it's his game to stay active at both ends without needing the ball. That puts him in the minority. Second-leading scorer Victor Oladipo often looks so lost next to Westbrook that it feels almost inhumane that no one has sent out a rescue party. Westbrook finished with 51 points, 10 rebounds and 13 assists in the 115-111 loss, but sabotaged the Thunder by shooting 4-for-17 in the fourth quarter. His 6-for-23 shooting and nine turnovers gave OKC no chance in a Game 1 it dropped by 31 points. For the series, he's shooting just under 35 percent, so even though hes averaging 36.5 points and has managed a triple-double clip (10.5 rpg, 10.0 apg), he's been out-MVP'd thus far.

Back home, hope is renewed. Role players perform better in familiar surroundings, so Oklahoma City is hoping to take care of business and punch right back. In fairness, the old NBA adage has always been that a playoff series doesn't start until the home team loses, so the Thunder can indeed claw back into it. It doesn't matter how ugly it's been thus far. What OKC must prove is that it has some staying power over four quarters and the requisite fight to want to battle back. That's never an issue for Westbrook, but Billy Donovan must get the right guys out there around him that won't hang their heads.

Houston has now beaten Oklahoma City five straight times. The Thunder's only win came at home way back on Nov. 16 and the Rockets have been able to make big plays to steal three of the games down the stretch, so it will be interesting to see whether they've packed that aura of invincibility on this trip. Harden is averaging 36.0 points, 5.5 boards and 8.5 assists through the first two games, but he's struggled shooting the ball at the Peake this season, coming in 10-for-39 (.256) from the field and 3-for-16 from 3-point range. While this season has taken matters to the extreme, he's never really shot the ball well back in OKC, which dates back to a 3-for-16 game in his back in 2012 after being traded away that offseason.

Harden ran into the Thunder that postseason, the last time these teams had met prior to this year's playoff pairing, and struggled in the first two games of that series, shooting a combined 15-for-43. His last playoff game at the Peake, a 107-100 Rockets win back on May 1, 2013, saw him shoot 10-for-16 and 7-for-9 from 3-point range. A performance like that would probably end this series, but Harden would settle for being efficient enough where his touch isn't a detriment since his ability to get to the paint and find teammates has become a game-changer due to the fact he's got more help than ever before. Lou Williams scored 21 points in 21 minutes off the bench in Game 2, while fellow guards Patrick Beverley and Eric Gordon have each made huge contributions already this series.

It should be a scary though for OKC that it is in an 0-2 hole despite Ryan Anderson shooting 2-for-14 from the field, missing all 11 of his 3-pointers. There's nothing physically wrong with him any more now that his ankle is healthy again, so regaining a rhythm is only a matter of time. The Rockets have average 116.5 points through the first two games despite shooting 21-for-62 from 3-point range, well below their season average. Oklahoma City has been worse, shooting 16-for-59.

The total has been set at its lowest figure in 2017. Through two regular-season games and the first pair of playoff matchups, the number hasn't dipped below 225, where oddsmakers opened the action before moving to 224.

Eastern Conference First Round
No. 8 Chicago at No. 1 Boston (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (Tied 2-2)
Oct. 27 Celtics at Bulls (-1) 105-99 (Under 209)
Nov. 2 Bulls at Celtics (-3) 107-100 (Under 207.5)
Feb. 16 Celtics at Bulls (+1) 104-103 (Under 214)
Mar. 12 Bulls at Celtics (-7.5) 100-80 (Under 208)

2016-17 Postseason (Bulls 2-0)
Apr. 15 Bulls (+7.5) at Celtics 106-102 (Over 207)
Apr. 17 Bulls (+7) at Celtics 111-97 (Over 206.5)
**Game 4 will take place from Chicago's United Center on Saturday.

Anyone who got in on a Bulls upset before Game 1 could get back nearly four that times their investment if they go on to become the sixth No. 8 seed in NBA history to take out a No. 1. Backing Chicago prior to Game 2 means you're likely holding a ticket paying out nearly +200, and thus far, you're halfway home.

The Bulls are all the way home, location-wise, back at the United Center to try and claim a stranglehold on this series in front of a crowd that could've never envisioned attending a playoff game as recently as St. Patrick's Day. On March 17, Chicago fell for the seventh time in eight games, falling five games under .500. Dwyane Wade had just been lost for what was thought to be the rest of the season since there was no way to envision the Bulls getting back into the playoff hunt.

Instead of folding, a team that was in the running for the league's most dysfunctional for most of the season rallied, winning nine of 13. Chicago won its last two-regular season games, necessary since Miami was waiting to pounce on any slip-up in order to crash the playoff party, by a combined 86 points. The Bulls have won six of seven at home, a run that includes the Jazz, Hawks and Cavs as victims.

Chicago put together a pair of terrific games in Boston, where by the fourth quarter of Game 2, you could no longer tell who the top seed was supposed to be. Jimmy Butler has led the way with averages of 26.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists, taking the reins as the franchise player. Rajon Rondo (11.5/8.5/10.0), Dwyane Wade (16.5/4.5/4.0) and Robin Lopez (16.0, 9.5), the team's three oldest regulars, have been incredibly effective in outplaying expectations against much younger competition.

News came down that Rondo broke his thumb in Game 2 and will miss the rest of the season late Friday morning, so the Celtics will catch a break since younger guards Michael Carter-Williams and Jerian Grant are now due more playing time.

Rebounding and turnovers have been a major point of emphasis over the course of the past few games for Boston, which gave up an average of 108.5 points per game in the two losses. Chicago has been fantastic on the offensive boards and have gotten key contributions from reserves Bobby Portis and Paul Zipser to make up for the fact Nikola Mirotic has gone cold.

The Celtics have been out-rebounded 96-74 over the first two games. This has forced them to have to work harder for longer on the defensive end, disrupting any rhythm they've looked to sustain. Isaiah Thomas has played scapegoat for some since he tragically lost his sister in a car accident early Saturday morning and has played through his emotional strife, but his clouded focus ranks way down on the list of reasons the Celtics lost two home games.

Head coach Brad Stevens will have Thomas back after he left the team to be with family and attend the funeral in Seattle. He and backcourt mate Avery Bradley were each at minus-20 or lower in Game 2 after actually being on the plus side in the series opener, so their ability to bounce back will also be critical since they're most responsible for creating the team's energy. Rondo has outplayed them both and largely controlled the game's pace, while Butler has yet to be phased by the defense of former college teammate Jae Crowder or Marcus Smart.

Despite their seeding, the Bulls have been installed as a slight favorite in this Game 3 and the series price that looks like a lottery ticket for early birds now looks like Boston's number at the beginning of the series. The total has been set at 207, in the same vicinity as the first two games of the series. All four regular-season meetings went under, but the playoff games have each gone over, narrowly hurdling the posted number.

Western Conference First Round
No. 4 L.A. Clippers at No. 5 Utah (ESPN2, 10:00 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (L.A. won 3-1)
Oct. 30 Jazz at Clippers (-7.5) 88-75 (Under 190)
Feb. 13 Clippers at Jazz (-8) 88-72 (Under 207)
Mar. 13 Clippers at Jazz (-2) 114-108 (Over 202.5)
Mar. 25 Jazz at Clippers (-5) 108-95 (2OT) (Over 200)

2016-17 Postseason (Tied 1-1)
Apr. 15 Jazz (+6) at Clippers 97-95 (Under 197.5)
Apr. 18 Jazz at Clippers (-9) 99-91 (Under 200)
**Game 4 will take place from Salt Lake City's Vivint Smart Home Arena on Sunday.

The big news as these teams transition from L.A. to Salt Lake City is that the Stifle Tower, Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Rudy Gobert, will be absent once again. The French center with the 7-foot-7 wingspan has been out of the mix following the first possession of the series, injuring his knee 17 seconds in.

Although the Jazz were able to win without him, claiming a Game 1 they controlled throughout when Joe Johnson snapped a tie at the buzzer, the Clips were able to take advantage of a Gobert-less defense in a 99-91 win to even the series on Wednesday, playing with the lead from the onset and holding on late.

L.A. scored 60 points in the paint and took advantage of the fact Derrick Favors, now flying solo in the rim protection game, had to be concerned about foul trouble and couldn't be aggressive. Thus far, he's been a bright spot compared to the regular season, when he former No. 3 overall pick shot 6-for-19 in the two games he played against L.A., both losses. He was a pleasant surprise as the x-factor in the series opener and is shooting over 70 percent from the field, averaging 14 points an 6.5 boards. He's got the size, skill and ahtleticism to make life difficult for Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, but hadn't played consecutive games where he worked for over 30 minutes since early November. If he surpasses that mark again tonight, it will be the first time he's played over 30 in three straight games since last March.

Fortunately for Utah, there have been multiple days between games in this series, so fatigue may be less of a factor than it ordinarily would be. Still, Favors just went through a season marred by knee issues, making a heavier workload in the postseason less than ideal since he had just returned from a 14-game absence on April 7. Boris Diaw and Jeff Withey are now being counted on to pitch in alongside Favors, but Quin Snyder has also opted to go small more often than he normally does, spreading the floor and playing slightly faster. We'll see if that trend continues at home.

First-time All-Star Gordon Hayward and Johnson have been the two leading scorers and have been involved in plenty of isolations, but they combined to shoot 11-for-30 in Game 2 and must be better if the Jazz are going to overcome losing Gobert. Hayward is shooting 12-for-33 from the field against the physical defense of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who helped hold him to 10-for-30 shooting over the two losses the Jazz suffered with him in the lineup during the regular season.

Snyder has had a great season in leading his team to a Northwest title, making him part of the Coach of the Year conversation. He's going to be counted on to adjust on the fly and has been open about utilizing the Hack-a-Shaq strategy against DeAndre Jordan, hoping to frustrate the big man since he's looked mighty comfortable without Gobert to contend with. For the series, he's averaging 14 points and 15 rebounds, shooting 13-for-18 and making it possible for everyone else to comfortably play their roles.

The under has prevailed in five of the last six Jazz games, including the first two games in the series. That may explain why even without Gobert, this total opened at its lowest point (197) of any of the five previous meetings played this calendar year.

[StarDust Bum]

Overall Picks of the Day:
Date W-L-T % Units Record

04/20/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -150
04/19/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -150
04/18/2017 5-1-0 83.33% +1950
04/17/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -1150
04/16/2017 3-5-0 37.50% -1250
04/15/2017 6-2-0 75.00% +1900

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

04/20/2017..................0 - 3...............-3.30..................3 - 0 +3.00
04/19/2017..................1 - 2...............-1.20..................1 - 2 - 1.20
04/18/2017..................3 - 0..............+3.00..................2 - 1 +0.90
04/17/2017..................1 - 1...............-1.10..................0 - 2 - 2.20
04/16/2017 .................2 - 2..............- 0.20..................1 - 2 - 1.20
04/15/2017..................3 - 0.............+ 3.00..................1 - 2 - 1.20

[StarDust Bum]

Bulls' Rondo out indefinitely with fractured thumb
April 21, 2017

Chicago Bulls guard Rajon Rondo suffered a fractured right thumb in Game 2 on Tuesday night against the Boston Celtics and will be out indefinitely, the team announced Friday.

The Bulls said Rondo underwent a subsequent exam and X-rays confirmed the thumb fracture. His injury will not require surgery.

The eight-seeded Bulls beat the Celtics 111-97 on Tuesday to take a 2-0 lead in their best-of-seven series against the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Rondo just missed with a triple-double, finishing with 11 points, 14 assists and nine rebounds, and added five steals.

Rondo is averaging 11.5 points, 10 assists and 8.5 rebounds in the Bulls' two victories over the Celtics.

The series resumes Friday night in Chicago.

***************************

NBA fines Westbrook $15,000 for postgame comments
April 21, 2017

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) The NBA has fined Thunder star Russell Westbrook $15,000 for using inappropriate language during a postgame media interview.

Westbrook scored 51 points Wednesday in the highest-scoring triple-double in playoff history. He set a franchise playoff scoring record and added 13 assists and 10 rebounds, but the Thunder lost 115-111 to Houston and are down 2-0 in the first-round playoff series.

Westbrook was not in the mood to talk about his statistics after the game.

''I don't give a (expletive) about the line,'' he said. ''We lost.''

Game 3 is Friday night in Oklahoma City

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, APRIL 21

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BOS at CHI 07:00 PM

BOS -2.0

O 206.5

HOU at OKC 09:30 PM

OKC -2.0

O 224.0

LAC at UTA 10:00 PM

UTA +1.5

U 197.0

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Tips
April 21, 2017

**Toronto at Milwaukee**

-- Milwaukee took a 2-1 advantage in this 3/6 showdown by smashing Toronto 104-77 as a two-point home favorite in Game 3. The Bucks raced out to a 32-12 advantage at the end of the first quarter and coasted from there. The 181 combined points provided a thunder ‘under’ (197). The Raptors scored merely 46 points in the first three quarters. Toronto head coach Dwane Casey told the Associated Press, “They ambushed us. There was no aspect of our game that we executed whatsoever.” Veteran small forward DeMarre Carroll told the AP: “They came out and threw the first punch. We were back on our heels and we never got back into the game. We didn’t come out with the sense of urgency we needed.”

-- Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo were the catalysts. Middleton produced 20 points, three rebounds, two steals and seven assists without a turnover, while Antetokeunmpo contributed 19 points, eight boards, four assists, two steals and a pair of blocked shots. Greg Monroe added 16 points, seven rebounds, three assists, two steals and one block in only 23 minutes of playing time from off of the bench. Michael Beasley (13 pts.) Thon Maker (11) and Matthew Dellavedova (10) were also in double figures. Rookie guard Malcolm Brogdon finished with four points, seven rebounds and nine assists compared to just two turnovers.

-- In the Game 3 defeat, DeMar DeRozan and Lowry were once again postseason disappointments. Lowry scored 13 points, grabbed five rebounds and had more turnovers (three) than assists (two). DeRozan missed all of his shots from the field in an eight-point effort thanks to 8-of-8 shooting at the charity stripe. DeRozan had three turnovers without an assist, pulled down only two rebounds and had a team-worst -23 plus-minus rating. Delon Wright shared team-high scoring honors with Lowry, while Norman Powell scored 12 points in 14-plus minutes of action in a reserve role. Jonas Valanciunas had 11 points and seven rebounds.

-- As of early Friday night, most betting shops had Milwaukee (44-41 straight up, 39-46 against the spread) listed as a two-point favorite with a total of 195.5. The Raptors were +110 on the money line at most spots (risk $100 to win $110).

-- Jason Kidd’s team is 24-18 SU and 20-22 ATS at home this year.

-- Toronto (52-33 SU, 45-39-1 ATS) is 23-19 SU and 24-18 ATS on the road this season.

-- DeRozan, the eighth-year shooting guard who has spent his entire career in Toronto, has led his team to four consecutive postseason appearances, including a spot in the Eastern Conference finals last year. In 74 regular-season games, he averaged 27.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.1 steals per game. However, through the first three games of this series, DeRozan is averaging 19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 0.0 steals per game. He has more turnovers (six) than assists (four). After shooting at a 46.7 percent clip from the field during the regular season, DeRozan has buried only 16-of-47 FGs (34.0%) vs. Milwaukee. During last year’s postseason, DeRozan made only 39.4 percent of his FGs and 4-of-26 (15.4%) from 3-point land.

-- Lowry has had similar struggles. The Villanova product, who is a five-year veteran, is averaging only 13.0 points, 4.3 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game in this series to date. He has made only 12-of-33 FGs (36.4%) and 4-of-16 from downtown (25.0%). In 60 regular-season games, Lowry averaged 22.4 points, 4.8 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game. Lowry made just 39.7 percent of his FGs and 30.4 percent of his 3’s in last year’s playoffs. He was even worse two years ago, hitting just 31.6 percent of his FGs and 21.7 percent of his 3-balls.

-- Antetokounmpo has dominated this series to date, averaging 23.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.0 blocked shots per game. He is shooting at a 55.8 percent clip from the field and 42.9 percent from 3-point range. He has struggled at the free-throw line, however, hitting only 10-of-20 attempts.

-- The ‘over’ is 42-41-2 overall for the Bucks, 23-18-1 in their home contests. However, they have seen the ‘under’ go 6-1-1 in their last eight outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the seven head-to-head meetings between these clubs this year.

-- The ‘over’ is 45-40 overall for the Raptors, but the ‘under’ is 24-18 in their road assignments.

-- The updated series price at Sportsbook.ag is Milwaukee -140, Toronto +120 (risk $100 to win $120).

-- TNT will have the broadcast at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Atlanta at Washington**

-- The series shifts to Atlanta for Saturday's Game 3 at Philips Arena. The Hawks are in must-win mode trailing the series 2-0.

-- Washington (51-33 SU, 44-39 ATS) took care of business at home in Games 1 and 2 of this best-of-seven series. The Wizards took the cash in both outings as well, winning 114-107 as 5.5-point favorites in the lid-lifter. Next, they rallied late to win a 109-101 decision as six-point home ‘chalk’ in Wednesday’s Game 2 at Verizon Center. The 210 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 212-point total.

-- Washington led by eight at intermission in Game 2, but Atlanta outscored it 35-23 in the third quarter. Down by one point with 6:03 remaining, John Wall and Bradley Beal scored 20 of the Wizards’ last 21 points and sparked a 16-4 run that put the game on ice. Washington went 14-of-21 from the field (66.7%) in the final stanza, while Atlanta made only 6-of-16 FGs.

-- Wall had 32 points and 14 assists in the Game 1 win. Then in Game 2, he dropped 32 on the Hawks again while also dishing out nine assists and grabbing five rebounds. Beal scored 31 points and had three assists and three steals in Game 2. Marcin Gortat added 14 points, 10 boards and five blocked shots, while Brandon Jennings made 4-of-5 shots in a 10-point effort. Jennings also had two assists without a turnover in 16-plus minutes of action.

-- In the Game 3 loss, Paul Millsap paced the Hawks with 27 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, two steals and one block. Dennis Schroder added 23 points, four boards, one steal and six assists compared to only one turnover. After a miserable Game 1, Tim Hardaway Jr. bounced back to contribute 19 points. Rookie forward Taurean Prince had another solid outing, scoring 12 points on 5-of-8 shooting from the floor. Dwight Howard saw only 19:53 of playing time, scoring six points and grabbing seven rebounds. Howard coughed up three turnovers, which has been the story of the series for Atlanta. The Hawks had 21 turnovers in Game 1 and 18 in Game 2. With that said, Schroder has done an excellent job of taking care of the ball with just three turnovers.

-- Washington has won five in a row over Atlanta since losing a 114-99 decision at Philips Arena way back on Oct. 27. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in those five contests.

-- As of early Friday night, most books had Atlanta (43-41 SU, 39-45 ATS) installed as a three-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 210. The Wizards were +135 on the money line (risk $100 to win $135).

-- Atlanta owns a 23-18 SU record and a 17-24 ATS mark at home this season.

-- Washington compiled a 19-22 SU record and a 19-21-1 ATS ledger on the road during the regular season.

-- The updated series price at Sportsbook.ag is Washington -850, Atlanta +600 (risk $100 to win $600).

-- The ‘under’ is 49-33-2 overall for the Hawks, 23-18 in their home games.

-- The ‘over’ is 52-32 overall for the Wizards, 26-15 in their road assignments.

-- The ‘under’ is 4-2 in the six meetings between these clubs this year, going 4-1 in the last five encounters.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Late Tips
April 22, 2017

Western Conference First Round
No. 2 San Antonio at No. 7 Memphis (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (Tied 2-2)
Feb. 6 Spurs at Grizzlies (-1) 89-74 (Under 200.5)
Mar. 18 Spurs at Grizzlies (+4) 104-96 (Over 196)
Mar. 23 Grizzlies at Spurs (-8) 97-90 (Under 197.5)
Apr. 4 Grizzlies at Spurs (-9) 95-89 (OT) (Over 195.5)

2016-17 Postseason (Spurs 2-1)
Apr. 15 Grizzlies at Spurs (-9.5) 111-82 (Over 190)
Apr. 17 Grizzlies at Spurs (-10.5) 96-82 (Under 189)
Apr. 20 Spurs at Grizzlies (+3.5) 105-94 (Over 188)

The Spurs pulled away from the Grizzlies in each of the first two games at the AT&T Center to grab a 2-0 series lead. Following the Game 2 loss, Memphis head coach David Fizdale ripped the officiating and was looking to create a spark heading back for a pivotal Game 3.

The Grizzlies responded on Thursday by knocking off the Spurs, 105-94 to easily cash as 3 ½-point underdogs and cut the series deficit to 2-1. Memphis outscored San Antonio, 31-17 in the third quarter, while point guard Mike Conley, Jr. led the Grizzlies with 24 points and eight assists. The Grizzlies shot 50% from the floor and busted the 100-point mark for the first time in the last 15 playoff games dating back to the 2015 quarterfinals.

The Spurs’ backcourt couldn’t throw a shot into the ocean in Game 3 as Tony Parker and Danny Green combined to score six points on 3-of-13 shooting from the floor. Raise your hand if you expected backup guard Jonathon Simmons to outscore Parker and Green but the former Midland JC product posted 10 points off the bench. Kawhi Leonard put up 32 and 37 points in the first two victories for the Spurs, but the MVP candidate scored only 18 points in Game 3, his lowest playoff point total since being limited to 14 points in a Game 2 defeat to Oklahoma City in last season’s conference semifinals.

Memphis has won all three meetings with San Antonio this season at FedEx Forum, as the Spurs have been limited to 96 points or less in all three visits to the Grindhouse. The Grizzlies haven’t won consecutive home playoff games since the opening round against the Blazers in 2015.

The Spurs dropped to 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games in the road favorite role, dating back to the 2013 second round against the Warriors. Gregg Popovich’s squad had won their previous 10 postseason games against Memphis since 2013, which included a pair of sweeps over the last four seasons. San Antonio has done a solid job of bouncing back off a road playoff loss since 2014 by winning five of its past seven in this role.

Even though the Grizzlies won Game 3, the Spurs are still overwhelming favorites to advance to the second round. At Sportsbook.ag, San Antonio is listed at -4500 to capture two more victories in this round, while Memphis sits at a hefty +1500 to rally back and move to the semifinals.

Series Exact Result - Sportsbook.ag
5 Games Spurs Win -110
6 Games Spurs Win +200
7 Games Spurs Win +400
7 Games Grizzlies Win +1500
6 Games Grizzlies Win +2500

Western Conference First Round
No. 1 Golden State at No. 8 Portland (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (Warriors 4-0)
Nov. 1 Warriors (-5) at Blazers 127-104 (Over 225.5)
Dec. 17 Blazers at Warriors (-14) 135-90 (Under 234)
Jan. 4 Blazers at Warriors (-16) 125-117 (Over 222)
Jan. 29 Warriors (-6) at Blazers 113-111 (Under 224.5)

2016-17 Postseason (Warriors 2-0)
Apr. 16 Blazers at Warriors (-15) 121-109 (Over 219.5)
Apr. 19 Blazers at Warriors (-11.5) 110-81 (Under 218)

Golden State continued its mastery of Portland this season by winning its sixth meeting against the Blazers in Game 2 on Wednesday, 110-81. The Warriors easily cashed as 11 ½-point favorites in spite of Kevin Durant sidelined for precautionary reasons due to a calf injury. Durant’s status is up in the air for Game 3 at the Moda Center, but there is no rush to bring back the former scoring champion after five Warriors posted double-figures in Game 2.

The defending Western Conference champions didn’t light it up from the floor on Wednesday as Stephen Curry was Golden State’s leading scorer with 19. However, the Warriors outrebounded the Blazers, 54-47, while Golden State’s defense stifled the dynamic duo of Damien Lillard and C.J. McCollum as the starting Portland backcourt managed a total of 23 points on 9-of-34 shooting. Portland fell short in Game 1 as 15-point underdogs in spite of Lillard and McCollum combining for 75 points.

In Golden State’s two visits to Portland this season, the Warriors grabbed victories each time in different fashions. On November 1, the Warriors routed the Blazers, 127-104 as five-point favorites, highlighted by 41-point third quarter output. Golden State edged Portland in their next meeting at the Moda Center in late January, 113-111 as Curry sat out with an injury. The Blazers cashed as six-point underdogs thanks to a 37-29 advantage in the fourth quarter, but Durant led Golden State with 33 points and 10 rebounds.

Steve Kerr’s club put together a 2-4 SU/ATS record as a road favorite in the playoffs last season, which included a front-door overtime victory at Portland in Game 4 of the second round. In 2016, the Blazers won four of five home playoff games, including three victories in the opening round against the Clippers. Since 2014, Portland has covered in four of five home playoff games in the underdog role, while posting an 8-4 mark in its past 12 home postseason contests.

Dating back to the All-Star break, Terry Stotts’ team is 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS at the Moda Center, while being listed as an underdog only once, coming in a one-point triumph over the Spurs in the final week of the season. The Warriors are riding a five-game winning streak away from Oracle Arena, including victories at Oklahoma City, Houston, and San Antonio in this stretch.

Four of five playoff matchups last season between these teams sailed OVER the total, including both meetings in Portland. Golden State was a coin-flip proposition on road totals in the playoffs last season, going 5-5 in 10 games away from Oracle Arena.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Best Bet
April 21, 2017

NBA Playoffs - Game 4
San Antonio at Memphis (ESPN, 8:05 p.m.)

The Memphis Grizzlies did what I expected in Game 3 as they rallied around their coach's rant, came out like their season was on the line (effectively it was), put together four solid quarters of offensive basketball and dominated the Spurs from the second quarter on. The series is now 2-1 and Memphis and their fans believe that if they can play like they did in Game 3 the rest of the way, the chances of them upsetting San Antonio in this round will be a lot better than many give them credit for.

San Antonio wasn't surprised to see Memphis play as well as they did, but while some may now believe that this is more of a series then the first two games showed, the Spurs still have to like their position very much. They still know they can dominate this team when they are on their own floor and for Memphis to win this series they are going to have to win at least once in San Antonio.

But the Spurs are still and older team and ending this series sooner then later to get that extra rest heading into the next round is a nice bonus.

Odds per - Sportsbook.ag

Best Bet: San Antonio (-3.5)

As high as Memphis fans are about their team's performance in Game 3, chances are we see that elation come to a quick demise by the end of Game 4. San Antonio just couldn't match the energy level Memphis brought for the four quarters and when things got out of hand in the 3rd quarter (Memphis outscored the Spurs 31-17), it became time for San Antonio to rest up and prepare for Game 4. You won't see the likes of Davis Bertans, David Lee, and Jonathon Simmons playing 12-15 minutes-plus again as they were sent out in garbage time to rest the starters.

Tony Parker played less than 19 minutes and Aldridge and Leonard ended there nights at about 30 minutes apiece. HC Greg Popovich has long been a mastermind in this league in regards to resting players to get the maximum out of them when he needs to, and Game 4 is one of those spots where he likely will get exactly that.

Memphis may be feeling confident after their Game 3 win, but the 50% they shot from the floor, and 41% they shot from 3-point land were more of an aberration then they'd like you to believe. At home this year, where they were decidedly a better offensive team, the Grizzlies only averaged 42.9% from the floor and 35.4% from beyond the arc.

Those Game 3 numbers were definitely a product of the huge motivation and energy they had to get themselves back in the series and almost certainly there will be a regression in those numbers and the motivation/energy levels they bring to Game 4. Memphis is just 1-5 ATS after covering the spread in their last outing, and with the Spurs hoping to close this series out back at home in Game 5 to get that extra rest, it's likely going to be San Antonio that has the edge in motivation, energy, and shooting percentages once again.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA roundup: Westbrook, Thunder hold off Rockets
April 22, 2017

OKLAHOMA CITY -- Russell Westbrook's second missed free throw of the closing seconds kept the door open for James Harden heroics, but he missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer and the Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Houston Rockets 115-113 on Friday night at Chesapeake Energy Arena.

The Rockets lead the series 2-1 going into Sunday's Game 4. Westbrook finished with 32 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists.

Harden hit a 3-pointer with 52 seconds left to lift the Rockets into a tie for the first time since early in the second half. Westbrook followed with his first 3-point attempt of the game. It bounced off the rim, but Steven Adams was there to put it back up for the lead. Then the teams traded free-throw tries until Harden's drive in the final seconds with the Rockets down two.

Westbrook had his triple-double -- his 44th of the season -- by the end of the third quarter. He became the first player with back-to-back triple-doubles in the same playoff series since Jason Kidd in the 2002 Eastern Conference finals.

Harden finished with 44 points and 18 free throws.

Clippers 111, Jazz 106

SALT LAKE CITY -- Chris Paul scored 24 of his 34 points after halftime to help Los Angeles rally in the fourth quarter in Game 3 against Utah.

DeAndre Jordan had 17 points and 13 rebounds and Luc Mbah A Moute added 15 points for the Clippers. Los Angeles took a 2-1 lead and notched its first-ever playoff win in the state of Utah after going 0-5 in previous trips.

Blake Griffin scored 11 points and collected six rebounds before leaving with a bruised right big toe late in the second quarter. He did not return in the second half.

Gordon Hayward scored a career-high 40 points to lead the Jazz. George Hill added 26 points and Joe Johnson chipped in 15 off the bench for Utah.

Celtics 104, Bulls 87

CHICAGO -- Al Horford scored 18 points, Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder added 16 apiece to help Boston beat Chicago in Game 3.

Four Boston starters reached double figures. Avery Bradley scored 15 points and Terry Rozier finished with 11 off the bench to round out the balanced scoring attack.

Dwyane Wade scored 18 points and Jimmy Butler added 14 for Chicago, which struggled to play with the pace it had in the first two games before Rajon Rondo injured his t

[StarDust Bum]

Pro Basketball Trend Report

TORONTO (52 - 33) at MILWAUKEE (44 - 41) - 4/22/2017, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-6 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

WASHINGTON (51 - 33) at ATLANTA (43 - 41) - 4/22/2017, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 78-58 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in April games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
ATLANTA is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 10-9 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 10-10 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

SAN ANTONIO (63 - 22) at MEMPHIS (44 - 41) - 4/22/2017, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 10-9 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 14-5 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

GOLDEN STATE (69 - 15) at PORTLAND (41 - 43) - 4/22/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-25 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 99-85 ATS (+5.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 144-117 ATS (+15.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 125-91 ATS (+24.9 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after allowing 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) after allowing 90 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 88-64 ATS (+17.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-27 ATS (+22.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 12-6 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 16-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
13 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

Overall Picks of the Day:
Date W-L-T % Units Record

04/21/2017 2-3-1 40.00% -650
04/20/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -150
04/19/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -150
04/18/2017 5-1-0 83.33% +1950
04/17/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -1150
04/16/2017 3-5-0 37.50% -1250
04/15/2017 6-2-0 75.00% +1900


Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

04/21/2017..................1 - 1 - 1..........-0.10..................1 - 1.-1.20
04/20/2017..................0 - 3...............-3.30..................3 - 0 +3.00
04/19/2017..................1 - 2...............-1.20..................1 - 2 - 1.20
04/18/2017..................3 - 0..............+3.00..................2 - 1 +0.90
04/17/2017..................1 - 1...............-1.10..................0 - 2 - 2.20
04/16/2017 .................2 - 2..............- 0.20..................1 - 2 - 1.20
04/15/2017..................3 - 0.............+ 3.00..................1 - 2 - 1.20

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

— Thunder 115, Rockets 113— Four of five Thunder starters scored in double figures.

— Clippers 111, Jazz 106— Chris Paul had 34 points, 10 assists. LA leads series, 2-1.

— Bruins 3, Ottawa 2, 2OT— Boston staves off elimination with a goal 30:19 into overtime.

— Capitals 2, Maple Leafs 1, OT— Four of five series games have gone to OT.

— Arizona 13, Dodgers 5— Diamondbacks scored nine runs in bottom of the 8th.

— Blue Jays 8, Angels 7 (13)— Game ended at 3:46am here in New York.

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random thoughts with weekend here……..

13) Madison Bumgarner is on the DL with rib/shoulder injuries he got in a dirt-bike accident on an off-day in Denver. Rough news for the Giants.

12) Giants were already 0-4 in Bumgarner’s starts (0-3, 3.00) this season- they scored a total of five runs in the four games.

11) Eric Thames hit 21 homers in 684 plate appearances for Toronto/Seattle in 2011-12, then his career tailed off- he wound up playing three years in Korea. Now he is back in the majors with the Brewers, and he is batting .415 with 8 homers in 62 PA’s, making him an early candidate for Comeback Player of the Century.

10) Cincinnati Reds have to be thrilled with rookie pitcher Amir Garrett, who at one time was a basketball player at St John’s. In his first three big league starts, Garrett is 2-1, 1.83, with 21 strikeouts and only 14 hits allowed in 19.2 IP.

9) Thursday nite, the Pacers led Cleveland 74-49 at halftime; a daring gambler at Ellis Island Casino in Las Vegas wagered $55 at 25-1 odds on the Cavaliers to win this game. He cashed in for $1,375. Not a bad hour’s work.

8) Russell Westbrook was 4-18 in the 4th quarter of Game 2 in Houston; he was 13-25 in first three quarters. Thunder are hard to watch- they have no real second scoring option.

7) Bulls PG Rajon Rondo has a broken thumb, is out indefinitely for the Bulls, who lead Boston 2-0 in their first round series.

6) When you see a baseball game where there are no walks and 26 strikeouts, you assume that:

Randy Johnson and Dwight Golden were pitching
There was a pitchers’ umpire behind the plate.Since the starting pitchers were Patrick Corbin/Clayton Richard, we can safely assume that umpire Gerry Davis is a pitchers’ umpire.

5) NBA referee Danny Crawford has worked 293 playoff games in his career, 33 Finals games.

4) NFL centralized instant replay this season, under assumption that Dean Blandino would lead the effort in New York City to make the replay process more streamlined.

Then Blandino bolted the NFL for a TV job with a yet-to be-named network, leaving the NFL without a logical replacement for him. Mike Pereira would be ideal, but he already has a good job.

3) I wanted to watch a TV show on the IFC channel this week, then I realized I had never seen a show on this channel and had no idea what channel it was on DirecTV (it is 333). You learn something new every day.

2a) Mike D’Antoni was 279-161 as coach of the Phoenix Suns; since he left, the Suns are 332-390 in regular season games.

2b) Oakland A’s were 256-176 while they had Yoenis Cespedes on their roster; since they traded him on July 31, 2014, they are 165-229.

Sometimes you’re better off keeping things the way they are. Not all change is positive.

1— Hope it doesn’t rain in LA in early September; Rams play Colts/Redskins at home on Sept 10th/17th, day after USC plays Stanford/Texas on the 9th/16th. Field will take a beating.

If it were to rain during that time, you’ll get a quagmire like the 1977 playoff game in the Coliseum when the Rams lost 14-7 to a very inferior Minnesota team. It was so muddy it was hard to tell which players were on which team.

Why did I remind myself of that?

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 22

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TORONTO (52 - 33) at MILWAUKEE (44 - 41) - 4/22/2017, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-6 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (51 - 33) at ATLANTA (43 - 41) - 4/22/2017, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 78-58 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in April games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
ATLANTA is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 10-9 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 10-10 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (63 - 22) at MEMPHIS (44 - 41) - 4/22/2017, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 10-9 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 14-5 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (69 - 15) at PORTLAND (41 - 43) - 4/22/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-25 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 99-85 ATS (+5.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 144-117 ATS (+15.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 125-91 ATS (+24.9 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after allowing 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) after allowing 90 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 88-64 ATS (+17.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-27 ATS (+22.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 12-6 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 16-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
13 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, April 22

Eastern Conference – Round 1 – Best of 7 – Game 4 – MIL Leads 2-1

Toronto at Milwaukee, 3:00 PM ET
Toronto: 25-12 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread
Milwaukee: 44-30 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins

Eastern Conference – Round 1 – Best of 7 – Game 3 – WAS Leads 2-0

Washington at Atlanta, 5:30 PM ET
Washington: 20-11 ATS off a home win
Atlanta: 14-4 UNDER vs. division opponents

Western Conference – Round 1 – Best of 7 – Game 4 – SAS Leads 2-1

San Antonio at Memphis, 8:00 PM ET
San Antonio: 67-41 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite
Memphis: 11-3 UNDER in home games after one or more consecutive overs

Western Conference – Round 1 – Best of 7 – Game 3 – GSW Leads 2-0

Golden State at Portland, 10:30 PM ET
Golden State: 22-8 ATS in the first round of the playoffs
Portland: 66-44 UNDER in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 22

Bucks were 23-46 on arc in last two games; they led Game 3 57-30 at the half. DeRozan was 0-8 from floor in Game 3, after going 16-39 in first two series tilts. Raptors scored 106 points in their one series win, 83-77 in losses, shooting 36%/33.8% from floor. Toronto is 3-2 in last five visits here; favorites covered all five of those games. Under is 6-1-1 in Bucks’ last eight games, 7-5 in Toronto’s last 12. Milwaukee is 0-6 in playoff series the last 15 years- their last first round series win was in 2001; they had lost seven of previous eight games with Toronto before this series.

Atlanta lost first two series games by 7-8 points, despite taking 77 foul shots in those games (Wizards took 50). Hawks were -7 in turnovers both games- they’ve lost five games in a row vs Washington- teams split last four meetings played here. Under is 4-1 in last five series games. Wizards lost four of their last six road tilts; four of their last six games overall stayed under total. Atlanta won last four home games, covered last three; under is 5-2 in their last seven home tilts. Three of their last four games overall stayed under total.

Memphis had three players score 21+ points in Game 3 win; they shot 50.6% from floor, after shooting under 40% in Games 1-2. Home side won last seven series games; San Antonio lost last three visits here, by 15-8-11 points. Under is 7-4 in last 11 series games. Spurs had 28-20 edge in FT’s tried in Game 3, way down from 32-15 in Game 2. Over is 4-1 in Spurs’ last five games; they lost last three road games, by 1-4-11 points. Memphis bench was +9 in Game 3, after being -98 in first two series games. Memphis has still lost 11 of its last 15 games.

Warriors swept Portland this season, winning six games by 23-45-8–2-12-29 points; they won last three visits here, by 7-23-2 points. Golden State won Game 2 by 29 and Durant didn’t even play. Golden State won 17 of its last 18 games overall, are 11-4-2 vs spread in last 17 games- over is 6-4 in their last ten. Portland won nine of its last 14 games, eight of last nine at home; three of their last four games went over. Golden State won NBA title in 2015, lost Finals LY, added Durant last summer. Since 2001, Portland is 2-7 in first round series, with wins coming in last three years (2-1).

First round playoff series:
Boston-Chicago
Chi 106-102, +7, O207
Chi 111-97, +7.5, O206.5
Bos 104-87, -2.5, U206

Cleveland-Indiana
Clev 109-108, -9, O208.5
Clev 117-111, -9, O210
Clev 119-114, –1.5, O210

Toronto-Milwaukee
Mil 97-83, +7.5, U197.5
Tor 106-100, -8, O195
Mil 104-77, –2, U197

Washington-Atlanta
Wash 114-107, -5.5, O209.5
Wash 109-101, -6.5, U211.5

Golden State-Portland
GState 121-109, -15.5, O220
GState 110-81, –12, U219

San Antonio-Memphis
SA 111-82, -9.5, O190.5
SA 96-82, -10.5, U189
Mem 105-94, +3.5, O188

Houston-Oklahoma City
Hst 118-87 -7.5, U227.5
Hst 115-111, -7.5, O225.5
OC 115-113, -2.5, O224

LA Clippers-Utah
Utah 97-95, +6, U198.5
LAC 99-91, -9, U200
LAC 111-106, -1.5, O197.5

Favorites: 10-12 vs spread
Over: 13-9




NBA

Saturday, April 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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3:00 PM
TORONTO vs. MILWAUKEE
Toronto is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 9 games on the road
Milwaukee is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games

5:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Atlanta's last 17 games
Atlanta is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home

8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. MEMPHIS
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 12 games when playing Memphis
San Antonio is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Memphis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

10:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. PORTLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland
Golden State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Golden State
Portland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Saturday, April 22

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Saturday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds
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Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-2, 194.5)

Bucks lead series 2-1

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (52-33 SU, 45-39-1 ATS, 45-40 O/U): Toronto was ice cold from the outset while shooting 33.8 percent from the field in the embarrassing effort, but All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry insisted the club can recover. "I still think we can win the series," Lowry said after Game 3. "It's a terrible feeling, the way we got our (rear) beat. Our confidence is not changed. We'll be fine." Casey promised there would be changes for Game 4 after his club - which played 20 postseason games last season - looked like novices against the Bucks.

ABOUT THE BUCKS (44-41 AU, 39-46 ATS, 42-41-2 O/U): Shooting guard Khris Middleton scored 20 points in consecutive games as he provides complementary scoring help for All-Star small forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. The "Greek Freak" was 7-of-10 shooting while contributing 19 points and eight rebounds and is averaging 23.7 points and 10.3 rebounds. Antetokounmpo's play energizes a Milwaukee club that somehow got better after losing standout power forward Jabari Parker to a season-ending knee injury and saw its confidence grow with a 14-point road victory in Game 1.

LINE HISTORY: The Bucks opened as 1.5-point home chalk and bettors have moved the line to Milwaukee -2. The total hit the betting board at 194.5 and has been bet up a full point to 195.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Raptors - No injuries to report.

Bucks - PF Jabari Parker (Out for season, knee)

TRENDS:

* Bucks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Atlantic.
* Under is 13-3 in Raptors last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Bucks last 9 vs. NBA Atlantic.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee.
* Raptors are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.




Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks (-3, 209.5)

Wizards lead series 2-0

ABOUT THE WIZARDS: (51-33 SU, 44-39-1 ATS, 52-32 O/U): John Wall finally got some help from backcourt mate Bradley Beal in the fourth quarter on Wednesday, when he scored 16 of his 31 points. The 23-year-old struggled to 2-of-11 from 3-point range in Game 1 and had trouble finding his outside shot early in Game 2 before exploding late. “Something I always tell myself, I don’t know what a miss is," Beal told reporters. "Like, it’s over. A miss is a lady. You just forget about it and you just move on to the next shot. That’s my way of helping me forget about my last shot, so I just stick with that and just keep it moving."

ABOUT THE HAWKS (43-41 SU, 39-45-0 ATS, 33-49-2 O/U): Atlanta is consoling itself with the fact that it kept each of the first two games close and believes the breaks will go its way at home. "We had a chance in both games," Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters. "We gave ourselves a chance on the road in the playoffs. Nobody likes the result. Nobody feels any better but the fact that you are there and you have an opportunity, you have to keep building on it. ... Now we have to go home and do the same." Budenholzer made the decision in Game 2 to leave starting center Dwight Howard on the bench for the entire fourth quarter, choosing instead to use a big man with a better chance of stretching the floor in Mike Muscala.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Hawks as 2.5-point home favorites for Game 3 and set the total at 209.5, as of Friday afternoon neither has moved off the opening number.

INJURY REPORT:

Wizards - C Ian Mahinmi (Out indefinitely, calf)

Hawks - No injuries to report

TRENDS:

* Wizards are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Wizards are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.




San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies (+4, 189.5)

Spurs lead series 2-1

ABOUT THE SPURS (63-22 SU, 43-40-2 ATS, 45-38-2 O/U): San Antonio was only down four points at the half before a pair of turnovers and a bad defensive possession prompted Popovich to pull his starters, leading to a third quarter in which the Spurs were outscored 31-17. "Pop got upset with the guys starting the quarter, sat them, and the whole momentum changed," reserve guard Manu Ginobili told reporters. "In playoff games, especially on the road, a two-minute mental "something" can become a 10-point deficit. That's what happened. We were in good shape at the half. Not playing well, not shooting great, down four on the road, and it was a good situation. It was OK for us. We had that moment there in which the whole game changed." None of San Antonio's starters ended up playing more than 30 minutes in the loss.

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (43-42 SU, 42-43-0 ATS, 40-42-3 O/U): Fizdale made one lineup change for Game 3, inserting veteran forward Zach Randolph into the starting lineup to add a stronger interior presence. Randolph responded by scoring 21 points on 9-of-16 shooting and grabbing eight rebounds as each of Memphis' big three - Randolph, point guard Mike Conley and center Marc Gasol - scored at least 21 points. "It felt good out there to start and get a rhythm and get in a rhythm out there faster," Randolph told reporters. "It felt good out there."

LINE HISTORY: The Grizzlies opened as 4-point home dogs against their divisional rival Spurs and that number has held firm. The total hit the betting board at 190 and has been faded a full-point to 189.

INJURY REPORT:

Spurs - No injuries to report.

Grizzlies - SG Tony Allen (Out indefinitely, calf), SF Chandler Parsons (Out for season, knee)

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Spurs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Memphis.




Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers (+6, 217)

Warriors lead series 2-0

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (69-15 SU, 41-40-3 ATS, 33-51-0 O/U): Kevin Durant said he would have been able to go in Game 2 but the team decided to take the cautious approach and could elect to do the same on Saturday, though Durant wants to be in the lineup. "I can tell you, I've seen these injuries before," Kerr told reporters prior to Game 2 "You don't want the next step. You pull a calf, that's a pretty serious deal. He's bummed out -- he wants to play, for sure -- but he knows that we've got to do the wise thing, we've got to do the smart thing long term. It just doesn't make sense. He understands that." Durant would get a full seven days off if Golden State elects to hold him out of Game 3.

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (41-43 SU, 41-43 ATS, 45-38-1 O/U): Portland's star backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined for 75 points in Game 1 but was held to 23 on 9-of-34 shooting in Game 2. "It's a series and points don't carry over, so you can't get too emotional or too low about the kind of game we had tonight," Lillard told reporters after Wednesday's setback. The Trail Blazers could also use some defensive presence on the interior after allowing Golden State's center duo of Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee to go 12-of-15 from the field.


LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Blazers as 6-point home underdogs against the Warriors, but some early action on the home team brought that number down to 5.5. The total hit the betting board as 217 and has yet to move off the opening number.

INJURY REPORT:

Warriors - SF Matt Barnes (Questionable, ankle), SF Kevon Looney (Questionable, hip), SF Kevin Durant (Questionable, calf), PG Shaun Livingston (Questionable, finger)

Trail Blazers - C Jusuf Nurkic (Questionable, leg), C Festus Ezeli (Out for season, knee), PF Ed Davis (Out for season, shoulder)

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
* Trail Blazers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 8-2 in Trail Blazers last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 22


Golden State @ Portland

Game 507-508
April 22, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
131.057
Portland
122.530
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 8 1/2
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 5 1/2
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-5 1/2); Over

San Antonio @ Memphis

Game 505-506
April 22, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
122.502
Memphis
115.107
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 7 1/2
183
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 3 1/2
188 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-3 1/2); Under

Washington @ Atlanta

Game 503-504
April 22, 2017 @ 5:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
120.407
Atlanta
119.659
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3); Over

Toronto @ Milwaukee

Game 501-502
April 22, 2017 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
120.166
Milwaukee
119.203
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 1
190
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 2 1/2
195 1/2
[B]Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+2 1/2); Under[/B