The Bum's 2016 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

1st Round Series Odds
April 13, 2017

Home Team listed first - Best of 7 Games (2-2-1-1-1)
(Opening Odds in parentheses)

Eastern Conference - First Round

Boston vs. Chicago
Celtics (-480)
Bulls (+380)

Cleveland vs. Indiana
Cavaliers (-1100)
Pacers (+700)

Toronto vs. Milwaukee
Raptors (-380)
Bucks (+300)

Washington vs. Atlanta
Wizards (-240)
Hawks (+200)

Western Conference - First Round

Golden State vs. Portland
Warriors (-7000)
Trail Blazers (+2000)

San Antonio vs. Memphis
Spurs (-1000)
Grizzlies (+650)

Houston vs. Oklahoma City
Rockets (-380)
Thunder (+300)

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Utah
Clippers (-240)
Jazz (+200)

Odds Subject to Change

[StarDust Bum]

Westbrook and Harden ready to collide
April 13, 2017

Russell Westbrook against James Harden is a sensational start to the NBA postseason.

Golden State against Cleveland no longer looks like the certain finish.

The playoffs open this weekend, highlighted by a must-see matchup in the first round between record-setting guards who are former teammates and now leading MVP candidates.

They swapped spectacular highlights during the regular season: Westbrook averaging a triple-double in carrying Oklahoma City after Kevin Durant's departure; Harden leading the league in assists for a high-octane Houston offense that shattered the NBA record for 3-pointers.

''As great of a season as LeBron (James) and Kawhi (Leonard) have had, the two main guys on the card, the main draw, have been James Harden and Russell Westbrook,'' Hall of Famer and TNT analyst Reggie Miller said. ''And to have both of those guys go at one another in the first round - former teammates, great friends, the two leading scorers in the Association - from our side ... this is a dream matchup to sit and have a chance to watch.''

Now one of them will be gone by May.

Super stats give way to tremendous teams in the playoffs, and the Warriors look the part after going 67-15 in their first season with Durant, now healthy after a late-season injury.

The question mark is the Cavaliers, the defending champions who were just 10-14 after February, yielding the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference to Boston while James sat out the final two games during their late-season slide.

The Warriors and Cavs were overwhelming favorites to meet again after splitting the last two NBA Finals, though Cleveland's struggles have thrown that into doubt - outside of Cleveland, anyway.

''I'm not going into the playoffs thinking that,'' coach Tyronn Lue said. ''I'm going into it thinking we can win.''

The answers start arriving Saturday, when the two-month chase for 16 wins begins.

The Cavaliers open against No. 7 Indiana, while No. 3 Toronto hosts No. 6 Milwaukee. In the West, it's seventh-seeded Memphis at No. 2 San Antonio, and the No. 4 Clippers against the No. 5 Utah Jazz.

On Sunday, the Warriors open against Portland, before the third-seeded Rockets and No. 6 Thunder play the other Game 1 in the West. The East openers are Boston against Chicago, and No. 4 Washington against fifth-seeded Atlanta.

Just five years ago, Westbrook, Harden and Durant were young guns on an Oklahoma City team that lost to Miami in the NBA Finals. All three may have been worthy MVP winners this season had Durant not hurt his knee in late February.

He's back now, with perhaps his best chance yet to win something better than a second MVP award: a first championship.

''Playing against the best players in the world, at the biggest stage, that's the goal for every player,'' Durant said.

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Some other things to watch in the first round:

FANTASTIC FORWARDS: James and Paul George have had tremendous battles in the both the regular season and postseason. The most recent may have been the best, as James finished with 41 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists to George's 43 points, nine rebounds and nine assists in Cleveland's 135-100 double-overtime victory on April 2 . The Pacers haven't lost since, winning their final five to surge into the No. 7 seed.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL? The Clippers and Jazz both finished 51-31, with Los Angeles winning the season series 3-1 to earn the tiebreaker and home-court advantage. Should Los Angeles not win the series - and maybe at least one after it - count on more questions about whether it's time to break up the core of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.

BOSTON BEST? The Celtics are a No. 1 seed for the first time since 2008, when they won their last NBA title. But that was a ready-to-win powerhouse with Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. This team is in some ways still in its building stage, perhaps ahead of schedule for where even the franchise expected, and has to show it's ready to take the leap after not winning a playoff series since 2012.

RAPTORS READY? Toronto reached the East finals last season in its best season ever and loaded up for another run, fortifying the frontcourt with trades for Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. Knocked off by the Cavs last season, they would get Cleveland one round sooner this time if both advance. But to face King James, the Raptors have to stop the Greek Freak, and Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo will be a handful .

FAMILIAR FOES: San Antonio and Memphis will meet for an NBA-high fourth time since 2011, when the Grizzlies upset the top-seeded Spurs. San Antonio has won the last two, including a first-round sweep last season. This meeting features brothers Pau and Marc Gasol going against each other.

[StarDust Bum]

Clips looking to avoid bad luck in playoffs
April 13, 2017

LOS ANGELES (AP) When it comes to the playoffs, the Los Angeles Clippers' history is short and not at all sweet.

The once-beleaguered franchise has never made it past the second round, and in two of the last three years under coach Doc Rivers they've blown comfortable series leads and ended up going home.

At least they're going to open these playoffs at home, and given the team's recent history, that's no small thing.

Neither is the momentum they're riding.

The Clippers won seven in a row and 11 of 13 to end the regular season. They clinched home court for the first round against Utah six months after starting the season as the NBA's hottest team at 14-2.

''This really could be their year,'' Sacramento coach Dave Joerger said. ''They could really do something. They're in a rhythm, they're playing well.''

The Clippers have shown maturity down the stretch, seizing home court after the Jazz put the pressure on by winning on Wednesday night. The Clippers had to beat the Kings to end up tied with Utah at 51-31, and they owned the tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series 3-1.

''This team has grown a lot,'' Blake Griffin said. ''Maybe more than any other season that we have had here.''

The Clippers survived a combined 42 games without Griffin and Chris Paul, going 19-23 in their absence. Their worst stretch was a six-game skid between Christmas and New Year's and they responded by starting the new year on a seven-game winning streak, equaling their longest of the season.

''When you have as many injuries as we did, the ups and downs of the season, the length of the season, you go through a lot of adversity,'' Griffin said. ''You always say that when we come out on the other side we are going to be better for it, and I truly believe that we are.''

The Big Three of Griffin, Paul and DeAndre Jordan are in their sixth season together and still in pursuit of their first title.

Their sense of urgency may never be greater.

Paul and Griffin are in the final year of their contracts, which include player options for 2017-18. Jordan has a year remaining, with a player option for 2018-19.

A year ago, the Clippers owned a 2-0 lead against Portland in the first round only to lose in six games after injuries to Paul and Griffin.

In 2015, they gave up a 3-1 lead against Houston and blew a 19-point lead in Game 6 with a trip to the Western Conference finals on the line. In 2014, Paul had an infamous meltdown, twice turning the ball over and fouling Russell Westbrook, who made three straight free throws to beat the Clippers by one point in Game 5 of the conference semifinals. They lost Game 6 back at home.

In fact, the Clippers have lost at least once at home in their last six playoff appearances.

''Because of the experiences we've had, I think we're concentrating on finishing,'' Paul said. ''Trying not to have those different lapses in games. That's probably where we've showed a little bit of growth and we won't really be able to tell until the playoffs.''

Heading into Saturday's playoff opener, the Clippers are healthy, with the exception of backup guard Austin Rivers, who missed the final six games with a strained left hamstring. He could return soon.

Despite their recent failures, Doc Rivers insists he never goes into a new playoff series thinking about the past.

''Does that mean there's no residual effect?'' he asked. ''I can't say.''

While they can't change their painful past, they recognize it and clearly want to get past it.

''We've been waiting a long time for this,'' said Jamal Crawford, three-time Sixth Man of the Year. ''Ultimately, we'll be one of the teams judged on our postseason success, so we're ready for it.''

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

— Cleveland -$1200 vs Indiana +$750
— Toronto -$390 vs Milwaukee +$310
— Washington -$230 vs Atlanta +$195
— Boston -$460 vs +Chicago $360
— San Antonio -$1100 vs Memphis +$700
— LA Clippers -$260 vs Utah -$220
— Golden State -$10,000 vs Portland +$2000
— Houston -$380 vs Oklahoma City +$300

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……

13) Somehow, someway, Phil Jackson gets two more years to run the Knicks, despite an 80-166 record that screams out that Jackson has no clue how to run an NBA franchise. At $12M a year, the least Jackson could’ve done was get rid of of Carmelo Anthony, who is getting older and did not try much on defense, even when he was young.

12) We talked briefly yesterday about “exit meetings” with players after a season; apparently Kristaps Porzingis, one of the Knicks’ few bright spots, skipped his exit meeting with the club because of “his displeasure with the “dysfunction” and “drama” that has enveloped the franchise”, according to ESPN.com.

11) Was surprised to see that major league umpire Joe West is only 64 years old; he’s been a big league umpire since 1976, which means he made it to the majors at age 23.

10) Calgary Flames have to win at least one game in Anaheim to win their opening round playoff series; problem is, the Flames have now lost 28 games in a row in Anaheim- their last win in the Pond was in a 2006 playoff game. No bueno.

9) John Daly played in Darius Rucker’s charity golf tournament this week, which raises money for kids in South Carolina; at one point. he used a full beer can as a tee, then chugged the beer after he hit the ball off the top of the can, all while playing barefoot. Alrighty then.

8) Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred is open to the idea of geographic realignment, but Bud Selig was also in favor of that— it just never appealed to anyone else.

Geographic realignment would reduce travel costs and create more games with local rivalries, but then, no more American/National Leagues. I’d be OK either way— what do you do with the DH? (hopefully, get rid of it)

7) If you like obscure trivia, Ender Inciarte got the first hit in the new SunTrust Stadium in Atlanta.

6) Mets are just third team in history (’83 Brewers, ’03 Rockies) to win consecutive games when they gave up a grand slam in both games- Mikael Franco hit one against them Wednesday, Marcell Ozuna Thursday.

5) Mets beat the Miami Marlins in 16 innings Thursday night, which drained both bullpens. Marlins’ reliever Nick Wittgren threw three scoreless innings, but because he has options left and needed a couple days off anyway, he was sent back to AAA, not the best reward for pitching well, but he’ll be back in the majors soon.

4) Colorado pitcher Jon Gray has a stress fracture in his foot, will miss at least a month.

3) When Hall of Fame baseball player Rod Carew received a heart transplant in December, he got the heart of the late Konrad Reuland, who played tight end for the Baltimore Ravens before he passed away at age 29 after having a brain aneurysm.

2) Seattle Mariners sell toasted grasshoppers at their concession stands- they sold 901 orders of the insects over the first three home games. The grasshoppers are toasted in a chili lime salt and come in a four-ounce cup for $4.

The team called in an emergency order so that they last throughout this weekend; they’re also imposing a per-game order limit for the rest of the season.

There is no way in hell I would eat grasshoppers…….ever.

1— A very courageous 10-year old boy threw out the first pitch at the Dodgers’ game last night; the young man is the first person to receive a double hand transplant. Zion Harvey also lost both his legs below the knees as a result of a virus he had at age 2.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 15

Utah @ LA Clippers

Game 507-508
April 15, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
123.169
LA Clippers
131.588
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 8 1/2
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 5
200
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-5); Over

Memphis @ San Antonio

Game 505-506
April 15, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
116.805
San Antonio
122.928
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 6
195
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 9 1/2
190 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+9 1/2); Over

Milwaukee @ Toronto

Game 503-504
April 15, 2017 @ 5:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
115.577
Toronto
124.021
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 8 1/2
196
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 7
202
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-7); Under

Indiana @ Cleveland

Game 501-502
April 15, 2017 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
118.639
Cleveland
124.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 6
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 8 1/2
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(+8 1/2); Under


Sunday, April 16

Oklahoma City @ Houston

Game 515-516
April 16, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
113.442
Houston
126.724
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 13 1/2
232
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 7
228
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-7); Over

Chicago @ Boston

Game 513-514
April 16, 2017 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
118.151
Boston
127.694
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 9 1/2
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 7 1/2
207 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-7 1/2); Under

Portland @ Golden State

Game 511-512
April 16, 2017 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
117.617
Golden State
137.152
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 19 1/2
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 14
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-14); Over

Atlanta @ Washington

Game 509-510
April 16, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
119.011
Washington
121.055
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2
206
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 5
211
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+5); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 15

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INDIANA (42 - 40) at CLEVELAND (51 - 31) - 4/15/2017, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 47-32 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after scoring 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 9-3 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 8-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (42 - 40) at TORONTO (51 - 31) - 4/15/2017, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 36-46 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 360-433 ATS (-116.3 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 146-186 ATS (-58.6 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
TORONTO is 45-36 ATS (+5.4 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 127-94 ATS (+23.6 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
TORONTO is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
TORONTO is 178-220 ATS (-64.0 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-3 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 9-2 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (43 - 39) at SAN ANTONIO (61 - 21) - 4/15/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
MEMPHIS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after a division game this season.
MEMPHIS is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 996-871 ATS (+37.9 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 800-682 ATS (+49.8 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 506-426 ATS (+37.4 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 77-51 ATS (+20.9 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 177-132 ATS (+31.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 30-43 ATS (-17.3 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-8 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 12-4 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (51 - 31) at LA CLIPPERS (51 - 31) - 4/15/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog this season.
UTAH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) on Saturday games this season.
UTAH is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
UTAH is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 6-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, April 16

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ATLANTA (43 - 39) at WASHINGTON (49 - 33) - 4/16/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) in road games in all playoff games since 1996.
ATLANTA is 78-56 ATS (+16.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 10-7 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 10-8 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
11 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (41 - 41) at GOLDEN STATE (67 - 15) - 4/16/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 98-84 ATS (+5.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 143-116 ATS (+15.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 83-60 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 124-90 ATS (+25.0 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 87-63 ATS (+17.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 51-26 ATS (+22.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 11-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 14-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
12 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (41 - 41) at BOSTON (53 - 29) - 4/16/2017, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-5 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 6-5 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (47 - 35) at HOUSTON (55 - 27) - 4/16/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 55-74 ATS (-26.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-36 ATS (+5.4 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 177-130 ATS (+34.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 9-2 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 8-3 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 15

Cavaliers played in Finals last two years, winning title LY; they won last seven first round series (last first round loss, ’98). Pacers are in playoffs for sixth time in last seven years; they won three of last four first round series. Cleveland won its last three games with Indiana this season, by 15-9-5 points, with last win 135-130 in double OT April 3. Cavs lost their last four games overall, but Lebron sat some of those out; they’re 4-7 in last 11. Six of last eight Cleveland games went over the total. Indiana won its last five games, covered its last six; over is 10-4 in their last 14 games.

Bucks are in playoffs for first time since 2015; they’re 0-6 in playoff series the last 15 years- their last first round series win was in 2001. Raptors are in playoffs for 4th year in row; they lost in Eastern Conference final LY, first year they got by first round since 2001. Bucks lost three of last four games with Toronto this year, losing here by 22-16 points, but Milwaukee won 101-94 in last meeting March 4. Milwaukee lost four of its last six games; under is 4-0-1 in their last five. Toronto won its last four games, 12 of last 14; six of their last nine games went over.

San Antonio has won five NBA titles, with last one in 2014; they’re 5-3 in last eight first round series. Grizzlies are in playoffs for 7th year in row; they’re 3-3 in first round series the last six years. Home side won all four series games this year; Memphis lost its two visits here this season, by 7-6 points, with last loss here 95-89 eleven days ago- they beat Spurs by 15-8 points in two games played in Memphis this season. Memphis lost nine of its last 12 games (under 8-4). San Antonio lost its last three games; three of their last four games went over.

Utah is in playoffs for first time in five years; since 2001, they’re 2-6 in first round series. Clippers are in playoffs for 6th year in row; they’re 3-2 in first round series the last five seasons. Jazz lost three of four games with the Clippers this season, losing by 13 points in both their visits to Staples Center (to play Clips). Utah won seven of its last nine games; under is 5-3 in their last eight. Teams split pair in Utah, with only Jazz win 114-108 at home March 13. Clippers won their last seven games (4-2-1 vs spread); over is 7-5 in their last dozen games.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Saturday, April 15

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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
INDIANA vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indiana's last 14 games
Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

5:30 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. TORONTO
Milwaukee is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Milwaukee is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

8:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. SAN ANTONIO
Memphis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Memphis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games at home
San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Memphis

10:30 PM
UTAH vs. LA CLIPPERS
Utah is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Utah is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 7 games when playing at home against Utah
LA Clippers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Utah


Sunday, April 16

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. WASHINGTON
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Atlanta's last 15 games
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

3:30 PM
PORTLAND vs. GOLDEN STATE
Portland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Portland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games

6:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. BOSTON
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Chicago's last 20 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Boston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. HOUSTON
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Saturday, April 15

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Saturday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds
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The defending-champion Cavaliers remain the favorites to come out of the East despite stumbling since the All-Star break and dropping down to the No. 2 seed.

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers (-8.5, 212.5)

ABOUT THE PACERS (42-40 SU, 39-42-1 ATS, 41-41 O/U): All-Star small forward Paul Goerge led the charge over the last five games, averaging 30.8 points on 56.9 percent shooting while recording three double-doubles in that span. "I guess it's because we're doing everything right," Paul said of the five-game winning streak. "When our back is against the wall, we figure things out. It just showed the character of this team, that we knew all along that we should have been a playoff team, we just hadn't figured out how to play the game the right way. I think we did that at the right time." That streak began after a 135-130 double-overtime loss at Cleveland in which George scored 19 of his 43 points in the overtime periods.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (51-31 SU, 36-43-3 ATS, 47-34-1 O/U): James, who collected 41 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists in that April 2 win over Indiana, is looking to advance to the NBA Finals for the seventh straight season. Cleveland is heading in the postseason healthy after resting nagging injuries down the stretch but needs to address a defense that finished 20th in the NBA in points allowed at an average of 107.2 "At the end of the day, I'm not going to harp on what happened in the regular season through injuries, through bad losses, through good wins, through whatever the case may be," James told reporters. "We have a good club going into the postseason. That's all you can ask for."

LINE HISTORY: The defending NBA champion Cavaliers opened as 8.5 home favorites against the Pacers and the line hasn’t moved off the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 213 and has been bet down half-point to 212.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Pacers - PG Jeff Teague (Probable, ankle), SG Glenn Robinson III (Questionable, calf), C Al Jefferson (Questionable, ankle)

Cavaliers - PG Kyrie Irving (Probable, knee), PG Kay Felder (Questionable, leg)

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Cavaliers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Over is 7-0 in Pacers last 7 road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 home games.
* Pacers are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.




Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors (-7, 201)


ABOUT THE BUCKS (42-40 SU, 36-46 ATS, 41-39-2 O/U): All-Star small forward Giannis Antetokounmpo will be expected to carry Milwaukee after becoming the fifth player in NBA history to lead his team in scoring (22.9), rebounding (8.8), assists (5.4), blocked shots (1.9) and steals (1.6) in the same season. The 22-year-old Antetokounmpo averaged 24.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and seven assists in four games against Toronto this season and feels his club's strong second half is a good sign in terms of performing better than the first-round exit against the Chicago Bulls two seasons ago. "We feel good about ourselves," Antetokounmpo told reporters. "In the second half after the All-Star break, we played great basketball, team basketball. A lot of people expect a lot from us, to do better than two years ago."

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (51-31 SU, 45-36-1 ATS, 44-38 O/U): The Raptors lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers in six games in the East finals last season and shooting guard DeMar DeRozan is pointing to another sustained postseason run. "We understand what it takes to get there," DeRozan told reporters. "Let's take it one game at a time and with that understand what we've got to do to get there and how hard it is. That's our mentality this time around." DeRozan, who had 32 30-point outings while averaging 27.3 points this season, averaged 22.3 points in three outings against the Bucks.

LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 7-point home chalk and that number has yet to move. The total hit the betting board at 201.5 and has dropped a full point to 200.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Bucks - PF Jabari Parker (Out For Season, knee)

Raptors - SG DeMar DeRozan (Probable, illness)

TRENDS:

* Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 9-2-2 in Bucks last 13 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Under is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 11-2 in Raptors last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.




Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs (-9, 190.5)

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (43-39 SU, 41-41 ATS, 38-41-3 O/U): Defensive guru Tony Allen (calf) was injured in the regular-season finale and is sidelined indefinitely, so it is probable that he will miss the entire series. The veteran guard averaged 9.1 points and 5.5 rebounds and his defensive prowess will be badly missed. "It's an unfortunate injury for Tony and the team," general manager Chris Wallace told reporters. "With treatment and recovery, we hope to get him back as soon as possible."

ABOUT THE SPURS (61-21 SU, 41-39-2 ATS, 43-37-2 O/U): All-Star small forward Kawhi Leonard averaged a career-best 25.5 points during the regular season and will be counted on to carry San Antonio in the postseason. Leonard scored 30 or more points on 26 occasions and is vying to earn his third consecutive Defensive Player of the Year award. "He's a really unique individual," coach Gregg Popovich told reporters. "I think he's the best two-way player in the league. I don't think anybody else does what he does at both ends of the court, night after night. He's a pretty special guy."

LINE HISTORY: The Southwest division winning Spurs opened up as 8.5-point favorites over the Grizzlies and that line has been bet up to an even 9. The total hit the betting board at 192.5 and has been faded two-full points to 190.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Grizzlies - SF James Ennis III (Questionable, knee), SG Tony Allen (Out Indefinitely, calf), SF Chandler Parsons (Out For Season, knee)

Spurs - No injuries to report

TRENDS:

* Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southwest.
* Under is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 road games.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Antonio.




Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers (-5, 200.5)


ABOUT THE JAZZ (51-31 SU, 36-42-4 ATS, 42-40 O/U): Forward Gordon Hayward was the catalyst behind Utah's first playoff berth since 2012, as the Butler product registered career highs in scoring (21.9) and rebounding (5.4) while shooting a healthy 39.8 percent from long range. Forward Derrick Favors, who missed 31 games with knee issues as his production suffered a sharp dip, managed to play three games in the final week of the season after sitting out most of March and told reporters he could play 30 minutes a night if needed. Center Rudy Gobert finish tied for fourth in the NBA in double-doubles (58) and had one in each of the final three meetings with Clippers and their big man DeAndre Jordan, including 26 points and 14 rebounds in a loss at Los Angeles on March 25.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (51-31 SU, 40-41-1 ATS, 44-37-1 O/U): Los Angeles scored at least 112 points six times during its seven-game winning streak and had 124 or better on three occasions as an oft-injured bunch finds its rhythm behind floor general Paul. The nine-time All-Star averaged 23.1 points and 10.3 assists while shooting 56 percent in the streak while backup Austin Rivers recovers from a hamstring injury that is expected to sideline him for a few more games. Jordan had five straight double-doubles to finish the regular season but he was limited to an average of nine points in four meetings with Utah while shooting 51.6 percent, the lowest mark he had against any opponent other than Portland (50 percent).

LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened as 5.5-home chalk over the Northwest division champion Jazz and that number appears fine with bettors as it has yet to move. The total hit the betting board at 200.5 and briefly dropped to an even 200 before returning to the opening number, where it stands.

INJURY REPORT:

Jazz - PG Raul Neto (Late April, ankle)

Clippers - PG Austin Rivers (Out, Hamstring), C Diamond Stone (Out Indefinitely, knee)

TRENDS:

* Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 13-3 in Clippers last 16 games playing on 2 days rest.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Clippers last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Jazz are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Is there any value in betting anything other than LeBron-Steph Part III?
By: Joe Fortenbaugh

Let me ask you a serious question: Have you ever questioned the integrity of the National Basketball Association?

I ask simply because as we get set to analyze both series prices and NBA futures in advance of the 2016-2017 NBA postseason, I find it extremely hard to justify any wager that doesn’t pit Golden State against Cleveland in this year’s iteration of the Finals. Granted, by most metrics, the Warriors and Cavaliers are the two best teams in the Association. But that doesn’t always tell the story as to which two clubs will play for the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy in mid-June.

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I’m not sure how any franchise other than Cleveland and Golden State will play for the title, barring a disastrous injury.

For starters, NBA ratings are down anywhere from 15-20 percent, depending upon the source of the information. Additionally, the league has a growing problem on its hands as it pertains to superstar players taking nights off for rest during marquee, primetime showdowns. And that’s before you even commence a conversation about how big of a joke the final night of the regular season turned out to be, as the Association offered exactly zero drama on its last evening of action before the start of the playoffs.

Bottom line: the NBA needs a win in the playoffs. For its fans, the television networks, the sponsors and, most importantly, the viability of the product.

Which leads us back to Golden State-Cleveland and a very important question: Outside of a Steph-LeBron trilogy, is there any other combination of playoff teams that would get you as excited as Warriors-Cavaliers Part III? Would you be as excited to watch the Raptors do battle with the Spurs or the Rockets challenge the Wizards? Would either one of those options appeal to you at all?

I thought not.

“Three terrific veteran officials—Bob Delaney, Dick Bavetta and Ted Bernhardt—called what I still consider the single worst-officiated game in the 28 years I’ve been covering professional basketball. It was egregiously, embarrassingly bad for the league and for the Kings. It’s the only time, I think, I’ve ever written an entire column about referring for the purpose of being critical.”

That’s the great Michal Wilbon of both the Washington Post and ESPN’s “Pardon the Interruption” in 2008 talking about the infamous Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals in which the Los Angeles Lakers—who were trailing 3 games to 2 in the series—shot 27 fourth quarter free throws to Sacramento’s 9 en route to a 106-102 victory that eventually led to both a Game 7 win and NBA Finals victory.

Again, call me a conspiracy theorist, but there’s no way I’m predicting anything other than Golden State-Cleveland in this year’s version of the NBA Finals.

With that being said…

(2) Cleveland Cavaliers (-1000) vs. (7) Indiana Pacers (+650)

Game 1: Saturday at 3:00pm eastern (Cavaliers -8.5/212.5)
Season series: Cleveland 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 to the OVER
Note: Indiana is 8-2-1 ATS over its last 11 meetings with the Cavaliers and 4-1 ATS over its last five trips to Cleveland.

(3) Toronto Raptors (-380) vs. (6) Milwaukee Bucks (+320)

Game 1: Saturday at 5:30pm eastern (Raptors -7/202)
Season series: Toronto 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 to the UNDER
Note: The favorite is 20-8-1 ATS over the last 29 meetings between these two franchises and the UNDER is 8-2 over the last ten showdowns between Toronto and Milwaukee.

(2) San Antonio Spurs (-1000) vs. (7) Memphis Grizzlies (+650)

Game 1: Saturday at 8:00pm eastern (Spurs -9/191.5)
Season series: Tied at 2-2 SU, Memphis 4-0 ATS, 3-1 to the UNDER
Note: The UNDER is 7-2 over the last nine meetings between these two teams, San Antonio is just 1-4 ATS over its last five home dates.

(4) Los Angeles Clippers (-210) vs. (5) Utah Jazz (+180)

Game 1: Saturday at 10:30pm eastern (Clippers -5/201)
Season series: Los Angeles 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 to the OVER
Note: The Jazz have covered the spread just once over their last six games against the Clippers, the UNDER is 13-3 in Los Angeles’ last 16 games when playing on 2 days of rest.

(4) Washington Wizards (-200) vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks (+175)

Game 1: Sunday at 1:00pm eastern (Wizards -5/212)
Season series: Washington 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 to the UNDER
Note: The Wizards are 6-0 ATS over their last six conference quarterfinal games while the UNDER is 11-4 in Atlanta’s last 15 games overall.

(1) Golden State Warriors (-20000) vs. (8) Portland Trail Blazers (+5000)

Game 1: Sunday at 3:30pm eastern (Warriors -14/222)
Season series: Golden State 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 to the OVER
Note: The Warriors have covered the spread in 12 of the last 17 meetings between these two clubs while the OVER has cashed in 18 of the last 24 meetings between Golden State and Portland.

(1) Boston Celtics (-500) vs. (8) Chicago Bulls (+400)

Game 1: Sunday at 6:30pm eastern (Celtics -7.5/207.5)
Season series: Tied at 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 to the UNDER
Note: The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two franchises and the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight encounters between Boston and Chicago.

(3) Houston Rockets (-380) vs. (6) Oklahoma City Thunder (+320)

Game 1: Sunday at 9:00pm eastern (Rockets -7/228)
Season series: Houston 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 to the OVER
Note: The Thunder have covered the number just once in their last ten matchups with the Rockets, while the OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams that have taken place in Houston.

NBA TITLE

Golden State Warriors: 1/2, opened at 3/2
Cleveland Cavaliers: 7/2, opened at 5/2
San Antonio Spurs: 9/1, opened at 6/1
Boston Celtics: 20/1, opened at 20/1
Houston Rockets: 25/1, opened at 60/1
Los Angeles Clippers: 25/1, opened at 16/1
Toronto Raptors: 30/1, opened at 25/1
Washington Wizards: 30/1, opened 100/1
Oklahoma City Thunder: 100/1, opened at 8/1
Utah Jazz: 100/1, opened at 80/1
Atlanta Hawks: 200/1, opened at 40/1
Chicago Bulls: 200/1, opened at 40/1
Memphis Grizzlies: 200/1, opened at 80/1
Indiana Pacers: 200/1, opened at 100/1
Milwaukee Bucks: 200/1, opened at 100/1
Portland Trail Blazers: 300/1, opened at 60/1

EASTERN CONFERENCE TITLE

Cleveland Cavaliers: 1/2, opened at 1/2
Boston Celtics: 9/2, opened at 8/1
Toronto Raptors: 6/1, opened at 8/1
Washington Wizards: 6/1, opened at 35/1
Chicago Bulls: 80/1, opened at 17/1
Atlanta Hawks: 80/1, opened at 17/1
Indiana Pacers: 80/1, opened at 35/1
Milwaukee Bucks: 80/1, opened at 35/1

WESTERN CONFERENCE TITLE

Golden State Warriors: 1/4, opened at 10/11
San Antonio Spurs: 9/2, opened at 3/1
Los Angeles Clippers: 12/1, opened at 8/1
Houston Rockets: 12/1, opened at 30/1
Portland Trail Blazers: 15/1, opened at 30/1
Oklahoma City Thunder: 50/1, opened at 4/1
Utah Jazz: 50/1, opened at 40/1
Memphis Grizzlies: 100/1, opened at 40/1

[StarDust Bum]

Even the NBA's best Over bets have trouble topping the playoff totals
By: Ashton Grewal

The 2000s were a crazy decade. Technology moved so fast it was hard to keep up with the changes the online world was forcing the real world to normalize.

The negative stigma of online dating took a long time to dissolve. If a buddy told you he was going on a date with a girl he met on the Internet, the snickering would last longer than five consecutive Aretha Franklin renditions of the Star Spangled Banner.

The theory was a guy could easily be tricked, with the proper camera tricks, sucky-cheek faces and side-angle views, into thinking a 5 was an 8 or even a 9.

The avatar picture had you expecting The Wire Season 1, but instead you got Season 2 and all of Ziggy’s warts staring back at you from the other side of the table in a suddenly not-dimly-enough-lit restaurant.

The NBA regular season can be as misleading for bettors when the postseason rolls around – particularly in a campaign like the one we just witnessed.

NBA teams have been filling up the score sheets since the opening tipoff. As ESPN’s Zach Lowe pointed out in a January column, this season ranks in the Top 5 of the NBA history in terms of average points per 100 possessions.

The high-scoring flow affected the results at the betting window too. Since 2003, only six teams have played Over the total in 50 or more of their regular season games – three of those teams are from this season (Those teams are: 06-07 T-Wolves, 07-08 Knicks, 13-14 Pistons, 16-17 Nuggets, 16-17 Suns, 16-17 Wizards).

This year’s Washington Wizards will be the first among those six teams to qualify for the postseason. Over teams are usually bad defensively which doesn’t help get you into the playoffs.

We broke down all the NBA playoff teams that finished with at least 45 regular season Overs since 2003 to see if those sides hit at the same rate in the postseason.

The data tells us, as it often does, that oddsmakers are good at their job. The Over is 96-104-3 for playoff teams with 45 or more regular season Overs. However, if you take away last year’s crazy results, when playoff teams went 33-52-1 Over/Under in the 2016 playoffs, the number changes to 86-83-2.

One thing total bettors can bank on is the Over/Under numbers dropping by a point or two in the playoffs. Points per game tend to drop a little bit once players are defensively motivated.

The Wizards host the Atlanta Hawks Sunday in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference playoff series. The Over is 12-9 in Washington’s last two postseason appearances.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are the next biggest Over winner to qualify for the playoffs. LeBron & Co. went Over the total in 47 of their 82 regular season games with one push. The Cavs are 17-22-2 Over/Under in the playoffs since LBJ returned to Ohio.

Cleveland opens its playoff fixtures on Saturday when it hosts the Indiana Pacers.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Tips
April 14, 2017

Eastern Conference First Round
No. 7 Indiana at No. 2 Cleveland (ABC, 3:00 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (Cavaliers 3-1)
Nov. 16 Cavaliers at Pacers (-2.5) 103-93 (Under 208.5)
Feb. 8 Cavaliers (+3.5) at Pacers 132-117 (Over 216)
Feb. 5 Pacers at Cavaliers (-6) 113-104 (Under 219)
Apr. 2 Pacers at Cavaliers (-8) 135-130 (2OT) (Over 214)

Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag opened Cleveland as a healthy minus-1100 favorite (Bet $100 to win $9) to win their opening round series against the Pacers, who are plus-700 underdogs.

The line seems a little out of whack when you consider the form for both clubs. Cleveland closed the final quarter of the season with a losing record (9-13) and they enter the playoffs with a four-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Indiana enters the postseason with five consecutive wins.

Despite the struggles for Cleveland and its inability to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, it still has LeBron James and nobody in the East has been able to slow him down the last six years.

Cleveland took three of four against Indiana in the regular season and coincidentally, LeBron did not dress for the loss at Indiana back in November. For those keeping track, the Cavaliers went 0-8 without him in the lineup this season.

The Pacers will rely on All-Star Paul George and he appears confident for this series.

"We've got to go out and challenge them," George said. "It's going to be tough. They've been struggling of late, but they're still one of the best teams in this game and have one of the best players in the world. It's going to be a fun matchup. I'm looking forward to it. If you ask me, it's who I've wanted to match up against."

I believe Indiana can steal at least one game in this series but it’s hard to back a team that went 18-26 this season against clubs above .500. Plus, the Pacers own the worst road record (13-28) amongst the 16 playoff teams.

For betting purposes, Indiana has gone 16-25 against the spread on the road which tells you that they’ve only managed to cover three times in their 28 losses.

Cleveland is holding steady as an 8 ½-point favorite as of Friday evening and its gone 31-10 SU and 19-19-3 ATS at home this season. When laying less than 10 points at home, the Cavaliers have gone 13-6 SU and 7-10-2 ATS.

Since LeBron returned to Ohio, the Cavaliers have played in six Game 1’s at home and they’ve gone 5-1 in those contests while winning by an average of 13.6 points per game.

The Pacers were eliminated in the first round of last year’s playoffs in seven games to the Raptors and they went 1-3 at the Air Canada Centre in the series. However, Indiana was 3-1 ATS and the losses came by an average of 6.3 PPG.

Obviously a lot of new faces surrounding George in Indiana but it should be noted that they’ve been a steady investment (12-12 ATS) as visitors in the playoffs since 2012.

Oddsmakers sent out a total of 213 ½ for Game 1 and that number has been steamed down to 210 ½ and other than expecting more defense in the postseason, I can’t figure out why the pros are leaning to the low side in the opener.

Our friends at ASA recently noted how poor Cleveland has been defensively this season and Indiana has averaged 112.6 PPG during their recent five-game winning streak. The Cavaliers have proven that they can score on Indiana, averaging 126.6 PPG versus the Pacers when LeBron plays.

Game 2 will take place on Monday from Quickens Loan Arena.

Eastern Conference First Round
No. 6 Milwaukee at No. 3 Toronto (ESPN, 5:30 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (Raptors 3-1)
Nov. 25 Raptors (-3.5) at Bucks 105-99 (Under 207.5)
Dec. 12 Bucks at Raptors (-8) 122-100 (Over 212.5)
Jan. 27 Bucks at Raptors (-6) 102-86 (Under 213.5)
Mar. 4 Raptors at Bucks (Pick) 101-94 (Under 204)

Milwaukee (+300) hasn’t won a playoff series since the 2001 playoffs and the oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag aren’t expecting that to change against Toronto (-380) in the first round.

The Bucks will enter this matchup with a 15-7 mark over the final quarter of the season but it should be noted that nine of those wins came against non-playoff teams. When Milwaukee steps up in class, it hasn’t answered and that was evident against Toronto this season and dating back to the 2013-14 campaign. During this span, the Raptors have gone 13-2 versus the Bucks and even more impresssive, they're 10-4-1 agaisnt the spread.

The lone win this season came on Mar. 4 when Toronto was without All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry due to an injury. When they did face him, Lowry averaged 23 PPG, 6.3 APG and he shot a blistering 52.4 percent from 3-point land.

The Raptors went 14-7 in his absence and newly acquired players via the trade deadline Serge Ibaka (Orlando) and PJ Tucker (Phoenix) certainly filled the void. Both of those veterans can shoot the ball and play defense, two critical factors in the playoffs.

Milwaukee’s success relies heavily on All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has a knack of doing everything well (22.9 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 5.4 APG). Outside of the Greek standout, the Bucks have a mixed bag of talent but veteran guards Jason Terry and Matthew Dellavedova do own championship rings.

Fast forward to Saturday and bettors might be leaning to the Bucks based on the Game 1 playoff tendencies for the Raptors. Toronto has dropped five straight postseason series openers over the past three years and they’re 1-10 all-time in Game 1 as a franchise. What’s a little more suspect is that four of those five aforementioned setbacks came at the Air Canada Centre.

For whatever reason, Toronto has struggled in all home playoff contests and not just Game 1. Over the last three postseasons, the Raptors have gone 10-7 SU and 5-11-1 ATS in Canada. As a favorite, the record drops to 8-6 SU and 3-10-1 ATS.

Toronto opened as a seven-point favorite and that number hasn’t moved as of Friday evening. During the regular season, the Raptors went 28-13 SU and 21-19-1 ATS at home and they’ll be facing a Milwaukee squad (19-22 SU, 17-24 ATS) that enters the playoffs with a losing record on the road.

Total bettors should note that the Raptors saw seven of their final eight games played at home go ‘over’ the total and they did average 110.9 PPG in front of their fans this season, which was the fifth best mark in the NBA.

The total for Game 1 opened 201 ½ and is listed as low as 199 ½ headed into the weekend.

The pair will meet again in Game 2 from the Air Canada Centre next Tuesday.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Late Tips
April 15, 2017

Western Conference First Round
No. 7 Memphis at No. 2 San Antonio (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (Tied 2-2)
Feb. 6: Spurs at Grizzlies (-1) 74-89 (Under 200.5)
Mar. 18: Spurs (-4) at Grizzlies 96-104 (Over 196)
Mar. 23: Grizzlies at Spurs (-8) 90-97 (Under 197.5)
Apr. 4: Grizzlies at Spurs (-9) 89-95 (OT) (Over 195.5)
**Game 2 will take place from San Antonio's AT&T Center on Monday.

If they had their way, the Grizzlies would've likely preferred to be matched up with a team that it could more effectively throw off their rhythm. Golden State and Houston prefer to run and would've been more vulnerable on nights when outside shots weren't falling.

San Antonio relishes a more deliberate tempo. It helps the veteran team focus and lock in defensively. This is a problem for Memphis, especially since top wing defender Tony Allen is probably out for the series with a calf sprain. The Grindfather sets the tone for the Grizzlies with his ability to lock up opposing catalysts and held Kawhi Leonard to 39 percent shooting over three of the season's four meetings. Memphis won two of the three games Allen played, but lost the most recent encounter in overtime on April 4.

Leonard feasted with 32 points and 12 rebounds. In games where Allen was on the floor to shadow him, Leonard shot 14 percent from 3-point range. With him absent, Leonard shot up to 58 percent from beyond the arc. The combination of younger forwards JaMychal Green and James Ennis must now step up to try and bother Leonard, likely getting help from rookie wing Wayne Selden off the bench. With Allen and Chandler Parsons sidelined, the Griz are down two of their top three projcted wings coming into this season, left only with 40-year-old Vince Carter. Carter shot just 37.5 percent against the Spurs, averaging 8.5 points.

The Spurs have Danny Green back from a quad contusion they were cautious with, further complicating matters for Memphis. LaMarcus Aldridge has been in and out of the mix with a sprained thumb but looked sharp in shooting 9-for-14 in the regular-season finale, so the No. 2 seed is the healthier team in this pairing too.

Memphis went 2-3 with Marc Gasol sidedlined with a foot injury that sabotagd their chances of catching Oklahoma City for the No. 6 seed. He's played in five straight games entering the playoffs, but has shot just 43.5 percent, averaging 15.2 points and 6.2 rebounds. He has hit 8-for-16 from 3-point range, relying on a dimension to this that he's turned to for the first time this season. That could be an x-factor here in helping clear space in the paint by pulling older brother Pau Gasol, Aldridge and starting center Dewayne Dedmon out on to the perimeter.

Mike Conley shot just 40 percent against the Spurs this season, averaging 18 points per game, so he'll have to be better to give Memphis any chance at pulling an upset. In Year 1 after signing one of the NBA's richest contracts, Conley has had his most productive offensive season, averaging career-bests with 20.5 points, .459 field goal shooting and a .407 3-point clip. His 171 3-pointers and 420 attempts also blow away previous career-highs, so it will be interesting to see whether he can put the Grizzlies on his back since he seemingly has the advantage over veteran Tony Parker and diminutive backup Patty Mills.

The teams have played four times since Feb. 6, including three times since March 18. After losing the first two games by margins of 89-74 and 104-96 in Memphis, the Spurs took care of buisness at home 97-90 and 95-89 to split the series. Only the Clippers won a series against San Antonio this season. The under has prevailed in seven of nine in this series. The Spurs have won three of four playoff series against Memphis, sweeping twice. They won 4-0 in the first round last year. The Griz pulled off a memorable upset in the first round back in 2011, beating top-seeded San Antonio in six games as the No. 8.

Western Conference First Round
No. 5 Utah at No. 4 L.A. Clippers (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (L.A. won 3-1)
Oct. 30: Jazz at Clippers (-7.5) 75-88 (Under 190)
Feb. 13: Clippers at Jazz (-8) 88-72 (Under 207)
Mar. 13: Clippers at Jazz (-2) 108-114 (Over 202.5)
Mar. 25: Jazz at Clippers (-5) 95-108 (2OT) (Over 200)
**Game 2 will take place from L.A.'s Staples Center on Tuesday.

Although defeating the Kings on Wednesday night was never in doubt, the Clippers would be in Salt Lake City for this series opener if they had failed to do so. The homecourt edge should come in handy in the series computer models view as the most evenly matched of the NBA's first round, but all it takes is one Jazz win over the next few days for them to wrestle it away.

Utah will take its first stab at an upset with a healthy lineup that it hopes will be able to make the difference. Derrick Favors played in three of the last four games and becomes the x-factor for the Jazz after being limited by injuries most of the season. The former No. 3 overall pick shot 6-for-19 in the two games he played against L.A., both losses, but has the size, skill and ahtleticism to make life difficult for Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. If the Clippers have to worry about both he and Gobert patrolling the paint, this becomes a different series.

First-time All-Star Gordon Hayward, point guards George Hill and Shelvin Mack, Favors and scoring wing Rodney Hood all dealt with injuries over the season's last few months. That made it all the sweeter that they were all available to take the floor in Wednesday night's impressive win in a back-and-forth game against San Antonio. Since losing the final regular-season meeting on March 25, the Jazz have picked up home wins over the Pelicans, Wizards, Blazers, Wolves and Spurs in addition to a road upset at Golden State. In all, they've gone 7-2 to pull off their first 50-win season since 2010.

The Clippers are even hotter, entering the playoffs owners of the league's longest winning streak at seven straight. The Wizards, Spurs and Rockets have been among their victims and their last five wins have all come by double-digits, so Doc Rivers has his team in a great groove. They're 43-18 with Chris Paul in the lineup and 8-13 without him, so the Clips may have had a shot at catching Houston for No. 3 had they not been without their floor general for more than a quarter of the season. Instead, they've got a much tougher road, forced to deal with one of the top defensive teams in the league in Utah before facing the top offensive group in Golden State.

Griffin pulled back his intensity level over the regular season's final week, but for the first four wins on this seven-game surge, he averaged 31.3 points on over 70 percent shooting, chipping in 7.3 boards and 5.7 assists. Being able to run offense through him to keep the Jazz defense from keying on Paul is going to be critical to getting out of the series.

Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert and two-time All-Defensive First Teamer DeAndre Jordan will look to stay out of foul trouble so they can serve as anchors protecting the rim. Jordan averaged 9.0 points and 12.8 boards and was successful in avoiding the whistle over the four regular-season meetings

Another key matchup to watch will be how Hayward deals with the physical defense of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who helped hold him to 10-for-30 shooting over the two losses the Jazz suffered with him in the lineup. He scored 27 points and shot 4-for-5 from 3-point range in the win, so his ability to generate offense will be critical to the Jazz since they often struggle to score.

The under has prevailed in three of the last four Jazz games, but went 2-2 during the regular season between these teams, topping the posted total in both March meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Best Bet
April 14, 2017

NBA Playoffs Day 1

The 2017 NBA playoffs are less than 24 hours away and basketball bettors everywhere are excited for games to mean something once again after a very lackluster final month of the year.

The 1st round of the playoffs kick off with a pair of quadruple-headers on Saturday and Sunday, and although many will still be waiting for the Cleveland/Golden State NBA Finals rematch, there is plenty of money to be made on a game-by-game basis, so let's get right to the best bet for Saturday.

Odds per - Sportsbook.ag

Best Bet: Milwaukee (+7.5)

The Toronto Raptors have had an up-and-down season with many different struggles to deal with on both sides of the ball, but now that the playoffs have arrived, the high expectations this team and their fans have can live in earnest.
However, despite Toronto moving up the ranks of the NBA the past few years, they've never been able to come out of the gates strong in the playoffs.

Toronto has lost all three Game 1's outright of the first round they've played the last three years, and during last year's run to the Conference Finals, they went 0-2 SU in the subsequent rounds as well.

Four of those five defeats came at home as favorites – including all three first round Game 1's – and if you go back even further through the history of the franchise in the playoffs you'll find Toronto 0-10 SU all time in Game 1's of any round, with eight of those defeats coming in the opening stanza.

That's not to say Toronto will lose outright against a Milwaukee team here that they went 3-1 SU and ATS against in the regular season, but for a team that hasn't won outright in this spot in their history – including the last three year's with this core – laying 7 points is downright absurd.

Milwaukee also has a couple of other things working in their favor here with those being Giannis Antetokounmpo on the floor and Jason Kidd on the bench. Antetokounmpo is a nightmare matchup for anyone Toronto decides to throw at him and the last time Kidd coached a playoff series against the Raptors it was back in 2013-14 when his veteran laden Brooklyn Nets came in as significant underdogs and won the series in seven.

Kidd may not have an experience-laden roster this time around, but he's always coached well against this Toronto organization and he'll have his guys prepared to steal Game 1 if able to, but more importantly keep this one well within the seven points.

[StarDust Bum]

First Round Playoff Trends
April 13, 2017

With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine a handful of time-tested proven theories that have lined our pockets during the opening round of playoffs since 1991. Here is what the machine has to say.

No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs (the Chicago Bulls and the Portland Trail Blazers this season) are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 71% of time (56-146 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 4-27 SU and 10-21 ATS, including 0-17 SU and 3-14 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of 4 or more points in their last game. Be aware.

Upset Losers Are Winners

Yes, you read that right... it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 94-25 SU and 71-44-4 ATS, a rock solid number 61.7 winning spread angle. And if these upset victims happen to be a No. 1, 2, or 3 seed they are a jaw-dropping 50-6 SU and 37-17-2 ATS in these follow-up affairs.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 35-20-2 ATS in this role.

And if these same guys lost as a double-digit dog in their last game they zoom to 26-12-1 ATS, including 18-5 ATS against non-division foes.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 47-65 SU and 47-61-4 ATS away from home this round, including 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in lid-lifters.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-29 SU and 10-22 ATS on their way to the canvas.

And just an FYI: teams that lose the first three games in an opening round series are just 12-23 SU and 13-19-3 ATS in Game Fours, including 6-15-2 ATS as dogs of four or more points.

Trending

Defending champions (the Cleveland Cavaliers in this case) are 78-34 SU and 62-46-4 ATS overall in opening round games the next season, including 17-8 SU and 16-8-1 ATS in Game One of Round One the following season.

Furthermore, they are 13-3-1 ATS following a double-digit loss during opening round games, and also a spotless 8-0 ATS when taking more than five points in this round.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2017 NBA playoffs.