The Bum's 2016 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Millsap out at least three more games
March 27, 2017
By STATS LLC Editorial

Atlanta Hawks All-Star forward Paul Millsap will miss at least three more games due to tightness in his left knee, the team announced Tuesday night.

Millsap already has sat out five consecutive games due to the issue. He was diagnosed with synovitis in the knee when he visited Dr. James Andrews on Monday in Pensacola, Fla.

Millsap, who averages 18.1 points and 7.7 rebounds, will be re-evaluated after sitting out the three games.

The Hawks have struggled without Millsap, losing seven consecutive games entering a Tuesday game against the Phoenix Suns.

Swingman Kent Bazemore (knee) will miss his fifth straight game, and forward Thabo Sefolosha (groin) will sit out for the second game in a row.

"At this point, it doesn't matter who's out on the floor," Atlanta center Dwight Howard said. "The guys who step on the floor have to get the job done."

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, MARCH 28

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIL at CHA 07:00 PM

CHA -4.5

U 199.5

MIN at IND 07:00 PM

MIN +4.0

U 207.0

PHI at BK 07:30 PM

PHI +4.5

O 225.5

PHO at ATL 07:30 PM

ATL -10.0

U 219.5

MIA at DET 07:30 PM

DET +3.0

O 201.0

GS at HOU 08:00 PM

HOU -1.5

DEN at POR 10:00 PM

DEN +1.0

O 222.5

WAS at LAL 10:30 PM

WAS -9.0

O 225.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds to win Houston Open golf tournament this weekend:

6-1– Jordan Spieth

10-1— Joe Rahm

12-1— Henrik Stenson

15-1— Ricky Fowler, Justin Rose

20-1- Phil Mickelson

25-1— Adam Scott

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..

13) There is an NFL rule that prohibits NFL officials from visiting Las Vegas during football season. I’m not the smartest guy in America, but I think that rule needs to be deleted.

12) I’m having lunch at a bar Tuesday; guy there is working on his laptop at the bar, talking on the phone- he tells the caller he has to go, he has another call.

Guy puts his phone down, orders another daiquiri and resumes watching the Mets’ game on TV while munching on popcorn. Looked like he has a pretty good job.

11) Sacramento Kings won games by one point on consecutive nights this week, first time their franchise has done that since December 8-9, 1956, when they were the Rochester Royals.

10) In Kings’ win at Staples Center Sunday, they trailed by 18 points with 5:00 left; this was only second time in last 6,748 NBA games where a team was down 18 with 5:00 left and rallied to win the game.

9) Was very busy at Staples Center last weekend; Lakers played there Friday night, Clippers had a game Saturday afternoon, then the NHL’s Kings played there Saturday night. Clippers were back in action Sunday afternoon— busy weekend for the workers in the arena who change things around inside Staples Center, assembling and taking down the basketball floor.

8) Chargers sold out their season tickets at the 30,000-seat soccer stadium they’ll be playing at for the next two years, in Carson. Raiders have already sold out their season tickets for this year in Oakland and have a waiting list for season tickets. Wonder how they’ll draw in Las Vegas.

7) Georgetown fired John Thompson III last week; they’ve apparently already been rebuffed by Mike Brey, Shaka Smart and Ed Cooley, as they try and replace JTIII. I’m thinking the very large shadow of John Thompson II makes this a bad job- they should just hire Patrick Ewing, and see what he can do. At least Ewing would have Big John’s blessing.

6) Oklahoma City 92, Dallas 91— Thunder scored the last 13 points of Monday night’s win.

5) White Sox traded veteran journeyman OF Peter Bourjos to the Rays Tuesday for cash. Bourjos runs fast, is a good defender, but profiles as a 4th outfielder-type.

4) South Carolina is first Final Four team since Cincinnati in 1992 that hadn’t been in the NCAA tournament the previous 10+ years.

3) I’m not a morning person; doorbell rings Tuesday morning and it is Jehovah’s Witnesses- the women take one look at me, one of them hands me a pamphlet and they quickly take a hike. Not sure why people would go door-to-door on a Tuesday; most people have jobs, no?

2) Georgia Tech 76, Cal-Bakersfield 61— Roadrunners made long trip east and laid an egg, going 8-22 on arc after making 30-59 3-pointers in previous three games, all of which were true road games. Tech was +8 (7-15) in turnovers.

1— TCU 68, Central Florida 53— Fran Fraschilla actually asked Joe Lunardi on the air during this game if he would rather lose a play-in game or win the NIT? Seriously? If you make it into the field of 68, your season is judged a hell of a lot better than if you played in the NIT.

TCU vs Georgia Tech for NIT title Thursday; a 4-seed against a 6-seed. Two coaches in the first year at that school.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 29

Atlanta lost seven of last eight games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight road games. Last seven Hawk games stayed under. 76ers are 4-3 SU in last seven games, 9-2 vs spread in last 11; they are 15-2 vs spread in last 17 home games. Five of their last six home games stayed under. Hawks won/covered their last six games with Philly; they won/covered four of last five games in this building. Five of last six series games went over the total.

Oklahoma City won seven of last nine games; they’re 2-5-1 vs spread in last seven road games. Over is 10-5 in their last 15 games. Orlando won three of last five games, is 5-11 vs spread in last 16 home games. Three of their last four games went over. Thunder won eight of last ten games with Orlando, but Magic covered eight of last nine. Five of last six series games went over. OKC won four of last five visits here (2-3 vs spread).

Hornets won four of last six games; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 road games- their last four games went over the total. Raptors won their last six games (5-1 vs spread); they’re 5-2 vs spread in last seven home games. Last four Toronto home games went over total. Toronto won six of last eight games with Charlotte; three of last four series games stayed under total. Hornets lost their last four games in Canada (2-2 vs spread).

Heat won 8 of last 12 games; they’re 8-4-1 vs spread in last 13 road games. Three of their last four games stayed under. New York lost five of last six games; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last five home games. Four of their last six games went over the total. Miami won/covered eight of last ten games with the Knicks; they won/covered last four games in Manhattan. Four of last five series games stayed under.

Bucks won four of last five games; they’re 8-4 vs spread in last 12 road games. Three of their last four games went over total. Boston won seven of last eight games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last seven home games- their last three games went over. Celtics won five of last six games with Milwaukee; six of last seven series games went over total. Bucks lost three of last four visits to Boston (2-2 vs spread).

Indiana lost three of last four games; they’re 0-5 vs spread in last five road games. Five of their last six games went over total. Memphis lost its last four games (1-3 vs spread, all on road); six of their last seven games stayed under total. Grizzlies won five of last six games with Indiana; under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Pacers lost last three visits to Memphis, by 11-12-12 points.

Mavericks lost six of last nine games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight road games. Eight of last ten Dallas games stayed under. Pelicans won four of last six games; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four road games. Three of their last four games stayed under total. Dallas won there of last four games with New Orleans; they lost three of last four games on Bourbon Street (1-3 vs spread). Six of last eight series games stayed under.

Warriors won their last eight games, covered last three road games. Under is 16-1 in their last 17 games. San Antonio won its last five games; they’re 4-3 vs spread in last seven home tilts. Three of their last four games stayed under. Spurs are 2-0 vs Golden State this season, winning by 22-29 points; Warriors lost four of last five games in the Alamo (1-4 vs spread). Six of last eight series games stayed under.

Utah lost its last four road games (0-4 vs spread); they’re 2-4 in last six games overall- their last five games went over total. Kings won their last two games by a point each; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine home games. Under is 5-2 in Sacramento’s last seven games. Jazz won three of last four games with Sacramento; they won three of last four visits here (2-2 vs spread). Three of last four series games stayed under.

Washington beat the Lakers in Staples last nite; they’ve won four games in row, are 6-4-2 vs spread in last 12 road games. Last three Wizard games went over total. Clippers won four of last six games; they’re 5-6 vs spread in last 11 games at Staples- their last three games stayed under. Clippers won seven of last ten games with Washington, which lost last five series games played here (3-2 vs spread). Six of last eight series games went over the total.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, March 29

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

7:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. ORLANDO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

7:30 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games
Charlotte is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte

7:30 PM
MIAMI vs. NEW YORK
Miami is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Miami's last 13 games when playing on the road against New York
New York is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing Miami

7:30 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games on the road
Boston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

8:00 PM
DALLAS vs. NEW ORLEANS
Dallas is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Dallas
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
INDIANA vs. MEMPHIS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing Memphis
Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana

9:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. SAN ANTONIO
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Golden State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Golden State

10:30 PM
UTAH vs. SACRAMENTO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 8 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Utah is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Sacramento is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
Sacramento is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Utah

10:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Washington's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home
LA Clippers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 29


Washington @ LA Clippers

Game 519-520
March 29, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
114.865
LA Clippers
122.313
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 7 1/2
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 5
220
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-5); Under

Utah @ Sacramento

Game 517-518
March 29, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
118.821
Sacramento
117.887
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 1
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
N/A

Golden State @ San Antonio

Game 515-516
March 29, 2017 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
127.790
San Antonio
121.865
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 6
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 4 1/2
209
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+4 1/2); Over

Dallas @ New Orleans

Game 513-514
March 29, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
115.778
New Orleans
128.729
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 13
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
N/A

Indiana @ Memphis

Game 511-512
March 29, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
117.466
Memphis
121.405
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 4
203
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
N/A

Milwaukee @ Boston

Game 509-510
March 29, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
115.274
Boston
126.902
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 11 1/2
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 8
209
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-8); Under

Miami @ New York

Game 507-508
March 29, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
116.738
New York
108.744
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 8
206
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 2 1/2
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-2 1/2); Under

Charlotte @ Toronto

Game 505-506
March 29, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
117.887
Toronto
120.069
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 7
205 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(+7); Over

Oklahoma City @ Orlando

Game 503-504
March 29, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
123.290
Orlando
107.238
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 16
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 5 1/2
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-5 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Game 501-502
March 29, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
111.737
Philadelphia
119.202
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 7 1/2
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
208
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+1 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 29

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ATLANTA (38 - 36) at PHILADELPHIA (28 - 46) - 3/29/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 33-41 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 18-31 ATS (-16.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 47-24 ATS (+20.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) off an upset win as an underdog this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 8-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 9-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (42 - 31) at ORLANDO (27 - 47) - 3/29/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-49 ATS (-18.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 40-32 ATS (+4.8 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 174-128 ATS (+33.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
ORLANDO is 30-43 ATS (-17.3 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) in home games this season.
ORLANDO is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 4-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (33 - 41) at TORONTO (45 - 29) - 3/29/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against Atlantic division opponents this season.
TORONTO is 41-32 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 6-4 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-4 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (36 - 38) at NEW YORK (28 - 46) - 3/29/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 50-33 ATS (+13.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on back-to-back days this season.
MIAMI is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MIAMI is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MIAMI is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-2 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 6-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (38 - 36) at BOSTON (48 - 26) - 3/29/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 33-41 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 357-428 ATS (-113.8 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 125-93 ATS (+22.7 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
BOSTON is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 5-3 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (37 - 37) at MEMPHIS (40 - 34) - 3/29/2017, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 4-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (31 - 42) at NEW ORLEANS (31 - 43) - 3/29/2017, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-5 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 7-4 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (60 - 14) at SAN ANTONIO (57 - 16) - 3/29/2017, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 993-866 ATS (+40.4 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 83-68 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 505-422 ATS (+40.8 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 185-142 ATS (+28.8 Units) in March games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 206-156 ATS (+34.4 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 278-230 ATS (+25.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 176-129 ATS (+34.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 150-124 ATS (+13.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 84-58 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 56-39 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 5-4 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 5-4 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (45 - 29) at SACRAMENTO (29 - 45) - 3/29/2017, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 5-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 6-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (46 - 28) at LA CLIPPERS (44 - 31) - 3/29/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 204-259 ATS (-80.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Wednesday, March 29

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 7:05 PM ET
Atlanta: 20-9 UNDER after a non-conference game
Philadelphia: 15-6 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent

Oklahoma City at Orlando, 7:05 PM ET
Oklahoma City: 28-15 ATS as a favorite
Orlando: 17-7 UNDER as a home underdog

Charlotte at Toronto, 7:35 PM ET
Charlotte: 7-16 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent
Toronto: 45-27 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5

Miami at New York, 7:35 PM ET
Miami: 11-2 ATS when playing on back-to-back days
New York: 11-2 UNDER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more

Milwaukee at Boston, 7:35 PM ET
Milwaukee: 28-15 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5
Boston: 22-11 UNDER after a game where they failed to cover the spread

Indiana at Memphis, 8:05 PM ET
Indiana: 30-15 ATS off a home loss
Memphis: 2-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders

Dallas at New Orleans, 8:05 PM ET
Dallas: 22-9 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games
New Orleans: 2-8 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite

Golden State at San Antonio, 9:35 PM ET
Golden State: 13-2 UNDER when playing 6 or more games in 10 days
San Antonio: 14-5 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more

Utah at Sacramento, 10:35 PM ET
Utah: 4-12 ATS as a road underdog
Sacramento: 3-1 ATS revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less

Washington at LA Clippers, 10:35 PM ET
Washington: 17-8 ATS after a non-conference game
Los Angeles: 9-21 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, March 29

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Wednesday’s NBA Game of the Day: Warriors at Spurs
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Golden State is thriving with eight consecutive victories after opening a two-game Texas trip with a 113-106 win over Houston.

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs (-4.5, 209)

The Golden State Warriors have yet to defeat San Antonio this season but will give it another try when they visit the Spurs on Wednesday. San Antonio posted two wins over Golden State earlier this campaign, and a victory in this matchup would tighten the Western Conference playoff race as the Warriors hold a 2 1/2-game lead with eight contests to play.

Golden State is thriving with eight consecutive victories after opening a two-game Texas trip with a 113-106 win over Houston. Warriors coach Steve Kerr stated none of his healthy players will be held out of this contest after four were rested when his squad lost 107-85 to the Spurs on March 11. San Antonio also is playing well with five straight wins, including a 103-74 rout of Cleveland on Monday. The Spurs are 29-7 at home, and the contest against the Warriors begins a stretch during which four of five games are at the AT&T Center.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, CSN Bay Area (Golden State), FSN Southwest (San Antonio)

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as 4.5-point home favorites over the visiting Golden State Warriors and, as of Wednesday morning, that line has yet to move. The total hit the board at 210.5 and has been dropped to 209.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The line opened with the Spurs as a 4.5 point favorite. The early square action was on the Spurs, which pushed the line to 5 early this morning, but there was a quick influx of sharp action on Golden State +5, forcing the line back to 4.5 where it remains. Side action is pretty even, however there is a noticeable majority (2-1) of parlays on Golden State +4.5." - GTBets Lines Manager.

INJURY REPORT:

Warriors - SF K. Durant (Out Indefinitely, knee), PF D. Green (Probable, ankle), SF J. McAdoo (Questionable, head).

Spurs - PG D. Murray (Mid April, groin).

POWER RANKINGS: Warriors (-14.8) - Spurs (-11.6) + home court (-3) = Warriors -0.2

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (60-14 SU, 34-38-2 ATS, 27-47 O/U): Kerr drew the ire of the league and ABC officials when he didn't play guards Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, forward Draymond Green and swingman Andre Iguodala - injured Kevin Durant also was out - during the nationally televised loss to the Spurs earlier this month. "Guys are good to go," Kerr said while revealing his plans to reporters after the win over Houston. "The schedule has been fine, and we'll go in there and see what we can do. Curry scored 32 points in the victory over the Rockets and is averaging 26.7 and 10 assists over his last three contests.

ABOUT THE SPURS (57-16 SU, 38-34-1 ATS, 38-33-2 O/U): San Antonio was without its two best players - forward Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge were out with injuries - in the recent win over Golden State and also intends to have all its players available. Leonard furthered his MVP case with 25 points against Cleveland while once again frustrating LeBron James (7-of-17 shooting) with his tenacious defense, while Aldridge is just 13-of-32 shooting over his last two games. Aldridge averaged 21.4 points over the previous five contests after missing two with heart arrhythmia issues.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 11-1 in Warriors last 12 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 7-1 in Spurs last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
* Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in San Antonio.

CONSENSUS: Consensus returns are showing 57 percent of the public supporting the home favorite San Antonio Spurs and 60 percent of the totals wagers on the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
March 29, 2017


Game of the Night – Warriors at Spurs – 9:35 PM EST – ESPN

The last time these teams met up in San Antonio on March 11, many of the key players involved watched from the bench the Spurs manhandle the Warriors, 107-85. San Antonio easily cashed as 10 ½-point favorites in spite of star Kawhi Leonard sitting out, but Golden State mailed it in before the tip-off as Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala all took the night off.

The Warriors (60-14 SU, 34-38-2 ATS) head to San Antonio with no rest following Tuesday’s 113-106 victory at Houston, as Steve Kerr’s club was listed as an underdog for only the second time this season. Not only did the Warriors extend their winning streak to eight, but also finished UNDER the total for the 11th consecutive contest. Golden State has performed well with no rest this season by going 11-4 (one of those losses came at San Antonio), but the Warriors have compiled a 5-10 ATS mark on the second of a back-to-back.

San Antonio (57-16 SU, 38-34-1 ATS) is within striking distance of grabbing the top seed in the Western Conference, but begin Wednesday’s action 2 ½ games behind Golden State for home-court advantage. The Spurs knocked off the defending champion Cavaliers in convincing fashion on Monday, 103-74 as five-point home favorites, while limiting Cleveland to 4-of-26 shooting from three-point range.

Golden State grabbed three of four meetings from San Antonio last season, but the Spurs own a perfect 2-0 record against the Warriors this season. In the last 30 visits to San Antonio, the Warriors have won only twice dating back to 2002, but one of those victories came last April as Golden State pulled out a 92-86 triumph as 3 ½-point underdogs.

Bucking the Trend

Milwaukee is setting itself up for a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference following a 118-108 win at Charlotte on Tuesday to improve to 38-36. The Bucks travel to Boston with no rest as Milwaukee owns a 5-2 record in its last seven games on the second of a back-to-back (the losses came at Golden State and Cleveland). Jason Kidd’s squad has turned into road warriors by winning six of the past eight contests away from BMO Harris Bradley Center, including three victories in the underdog role.

The Celtics are fighting it out with the Cavaliers for the top spot in the Eastern Conference as Boston leads Cleveland by a half game. Boston is riding a seven-game home winning streak and has won four consecutive games overall after holding off Miami on Sunday, 112-108. The C’s have captured five of the previous six matchups with the Bucks, including a 112-108 overtime triumph at Milwaukee in late January.

Kings for Another Day?

Sacramento shocked Los Angeles on Sunday by erasing a late 18-point deficit to beat the Clippers, 98-97 to cash as 13-point underdogs. The Kings picked up another one-point victory on Monday, 91-90 over the Grizzlies as seven-point ‘dogs to pick up back-to-back wins for only the second time since the All-Star break. Sacramento hosts Utah, looking to avenge a 110-109 overtime setback to the Jazz earlier this month after blowing a 14-point halftime lead.

The Jazz have stumbled down the stretch by losing four of their last six games, but picked up a crucial 108-100 home victory over the Pelicans on Monday. Gordon Hayward missed that win with a quad injury for Utah as the All-Star forward hopes to return to the lineup on Wednesday. Utah has struggled to cover numbers as a road favorite recently by posting a 2-5 ATS mark in its last seven opportunities, while dropping four straight games away from Salt Lake City.

California Comeback

The Wizards wrapped up the Southeast division title on Tuesday night with an incredible fourth quarter comeback against the Lakers. Washington overcame a 13-point deficit after three quarters and outscored Los Angeles, 37-13 in the final period to win, 119-108 and most importantly, covered as nine-point favorites. The Wizards remain at Staples Center tonight as they face the Clippers, while looking to extend their winning streak to five.

The Clippers led the Kings on Sunday, 94-76 with five minutes remaining in regulation, but Sacramento stunned Los Angeles with a 22-3 run to close the game and beat L.A., 98-97. Doc Rivers’ squad slipped to fifth seed, which means the Clippers would start on the road against Utah if the playoffs started today. Los Angeles has slumped to a 3-7 ATS record the past 10 games at Staples Center, but the Clippers have beaten the Wizards eight straight times at home since 2009.

Flying Back

The Hawks ended a seven-game losing streak in Tuesday’s 95-91 victory over the tanking Suns, but failed to cash as 10-point favorites. Atlanta finished UNDER the total for the seventh consecutive contest, as the Hawks have scored 100 points or less in each game of this stretch. Paul Millsap remains sidelined for Atlanta as the Hawks head to Philadelphia with no rest. Atlanta has fared well on the second of a back-to-back this season by owning a 9-5 SU/ATS record, while winning four of its last five on the road with no rest.

Philadelphia returns home following a 106-101 triumph at Brooklyn last night to wrap up a five-game road trip, but the 76ers hit the highway again on Friday to face Cleveland after tonight’s home contest. Atlanta goes for the four-game season sweep of Philadelphia as each of the first three meetings have been decided by 17 points or more. Since January, the 76ers have amazingly cashed 15 of their last 17 games at Wells Fargo Center.

Heat Wave

Miami overcame a four-point deficit in the final minute to knock off Detroit on Tuesday thanks to Hassan Whiteside’s tip-in at the buzzer. The Heat failed to cash as three-point favorites, but picked up a crucial victory that puts Miami all alone in the eighth spot with eight games remaining. Miami faces old arch-rival New York at Madison Square Garden tonight trying to improve on a 5-8 record with no rest this season.

The Knicks are coming off a rare victory on Monday after chasing the Pistons in the second half of a 109-95 triumph as a one-point underdog. New York owns a dreadful 0-12 record in its last 12 games off a victory as Jeff Hornacek’s team last won consecutive contests in late December. The Knicks and Heat are meeting for only the second time this season as New York won at Miami on December 6 by a 114-103 count, but the Heat have won and covered in their last five visits to Madison Square Garden.

Head-to-Head Trends

-- Orlando has cashed in eight of its past nine matchups with Oklahoma City, including as 9 ½-point road ‘dogs in a 119-117 upset in mid-November. The Thunder have won in four of the past five visits to Orlando, while the Magic are victorious in three of their previous five opportunities as a home underdog.

-- The Raptors have captured two of three meetings with the Hornets this season as the two Eastern squads match up at Air Canada Center. Charlotte has lost in its last four trips to Toronto, while scoring 94 points or less in each of those defeats.

-- Memphis had its five-game winning streak against Indiana snapped last month, 102-92 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Pacers travel to Memphis looking to improve on a 5-11 record with no rest off last night’s one-point defeat to Minnesota. The Grizzlies have gone backwards of late by losing all four games on its recent road trip, while being held to 94 points or less in each setback.

-- Both the Mavericks and Pelicans won’t be headed to the playoffs, but the two division foes square off in New Orleans. The home team has won each of the first three matchups this season, while the Pelicans are 3-1 SU/ATS the past four home matchups with the Mavericks.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Best Bet
March 29, 2017

Wednesday Night NBA Betting Preview
Golden State vs. San Antonio

Sportsbook.ag Odds: San Antonio (-4.5); Total set at 208

The biggest game on a large 10-game NBA card tonight is without question the Warriors/Spurs game in San Antonio. The Spurs probably won't catch Golden State for first overall in the West, but with a 2-0 SU record already against the Warriors (albeit one came when Golden State rested the majority of the team), a season sweep of the top team in the West would give San Antonio a solid mental edge should these two end up meeting in the Western Conference Finals.

San Antonio has won both meetings by at least 20 points, and although past results aren't always the best indicator of future results, with San Antonio having those results in their favor, at home tonight, and Golden State having played in Houston 24 hours ago, the Spurs definitely have a bit of an edge.

But edges like that are always taken into consideration by the oddsmakers and it's why we've got a number of 4.5 posted in favor of the home side. Currently, the action is split about 60/40 in favor of the Spurs ATS and 60/40 in favor of the Warriors on the ML and none of that is likely to change too much unless one of the coaches decides to rest key players again.

So where your betting angles should come from depend on how you feel this game will play out. Are the Warriors going to come into town looking to make a statement that they are still the Kings of the West after going 0-2 SU and ATS vs San Antonio already, or will San Antonio want to put the hammer down and sweep the season series?

The Spurs are the ones with a bit more rest, but both teams played quality foes last time out (Houston for GS, Cleveland for San Antonio) and both looked good in capturing the win.

The Warriors are on a 6-1 ATS run after their last seven victories and sport an 11-4 ATS run in their last 15 against winning opponents, but they are 4-9 ATS the last 13 times they've played without rest so that is somewhat of a concern.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against an opponent that's won at least 60% of the time, but they are also just 3-8 ATS after scoring 100+, and 3-9 ATS after their last 12 wins.

There are pros and cons to both sides of the coin tonight and rather than go searching for hours looking for a minute edge on the side, I'd suggest tonight's total deserves more attention.

Tonight's total opened at 209.5, was quickly bet up to as high as 210.5, before enduring another few up and down swings and settling on 208 at the moment. Bettors that are heavily reliant on trends will see plenty of trends supporting an 'under' play tonight, and with the Spurs locking down Cleveland the other night to the tune of just 74 points, you can see why there are many that will go below this current number.

However, oddsmakers spent plenty of time doing their homework when releasing opening numbers and while they always expect movement, this appears to have moved to far away from the initial line. Remember, the first big move – which is typically the better indicator – came to the 'over' on 209.5.

With Golden State averaging 115.9 points/game and San Antonio coming in at 106.2/game, reaching their averages alone would put this one well 'over' this total.

Even taking the respective home and away scoring averages on offense and defense for the respective teams and calculating the difference, you'd come up with a final score of San Antonio 106.3 to Golden State's 104.95. That's 211 points right there and it's not like these two teams aren't capable of going back and forth offensively against one another.

The only previous meeting when all the starters played finished 129-100 for the Spurs, but more importantly, both teams shot the ball at a 47% clip or better. Golden State got blown out because their 3-point shots weren't falling (7-for-33), but with 106 or more points in eight straight games for Golden State at the moment, we should see them reach a similar number tonight.

[StarDust Bum]

East April Forecast
March 29, 2017

Lots of agendas drive the final weeks of the regular season. Some teams have long resided in their tanks since coming out of the All-Star break while others are ramping up for when most eyes really start watching. Here are some notes to help determine who to ride or fade as playoff berths, seeds and draft lottery odds are all decided between now and April 12.

Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks lost seven consecutive games between March 13-26, a run snapped Tuesday by a win over the only team on a longer losing streak. Considering Phoenix led 78-71 with just over seven minutes left before Atlanta went on a 17-1 run to pull out the win, it's hard to call the slump over. It marked the team's first win in nine games this season without Paul Millsap, who remains out indefinitely with a knee injury that may remain an issue the rest of the way. Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha have also missed time, which has afforded more opportunities for Ersan Ilyasova and rookie Taurean Prince. Dennis Schroder broke out for 27 points and nine assists, and for better or worse, the Hawks will be his team going forward.

Atlanta has hit 11-for-54 from 3-point range over its last two games and shot it terribly throughout its slide, so even holding on to a playoff berth isn't guaranteed. The schedule is a blessing since they'll follow up beating the lowly Suns with games in Philadelphia, Chicago and Brooklyn, but all those games will come on the road. They'll have three days off in between returning from New York before playing Boston on April 6, so maybe Millsap will be able to get himself back up to speed for their one last push. A home-and-home awaits against Cleveland and the season closes at fellow playoff hopeful Indiana, so this group could be in for a crash-and-burn if they don't build off what may end up being looked at a season-saving run against Phoenix. Recommendation: Fade

Boston Celtics: A four-game run entering a Wednesday night home date with Milwaukee has put the Celtics atop the Eastern Conference for the first time in six years and look like a smart bet to hold on to the slight lead. They'll welcome the Bucks into town on the final night of the regular season and will also see Orlando, Cleveland and Charlotte come through. Their road games come against the Knicks, Hawks and Hornets, teams that they're 6-2 against SU/ATS. Boston is finally healthy and has averaged 115 points on its current home winning streak, so the team has obviously struck the right tempo. Recommendation: Ride

Brooklyn Nets: They almost won four out of five for the first time all season, but fell at home to Philadelphia on Tuesday. As it is, going 3-2 matches their best 5-game run of the season. With Jeremy Lin back and working with fresher legs than most and Brook Lopez giving him plenty of room to work thanks to his ability to draw defenders away from the paint, it looks like the Nets won't go quietly so long as no one gets injured again. Forwards Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Caris LeVert are playing hard and backup scoring guard Sean Kilpatrick should be a factor off the bench in April now that he's back in the lineup. Backup guard Spencer Dinwiddie has had his moments too. Since Feb. 25, Brooklyn has gone 11-6 against the spread, consistently outperforming expectations despite Lin being in and out of the mix. They'll close the season playing five of eight on the road, but only two of their remaining opponents have a winning record. They're the Nets, so they'll be getting points most nights too. Recommendation: Ride more than fade

Charlotte Hornets: The bottom seemed to fall out for this group on Tuesday night. With Milwaukee in town for a crucial game, they didn't bother to defend with any intensity early, fell behind immediately and displayed no "care factor" against the Bucks. It was a must-win they lost badly, which makes for an interesting bounce-back opportunity in Toronto against a Raptors team that has been stifling teams for weeks. The Hornets had won four of five before the no-show and could still get the benefit of the doubt if they show some fight, but the schedule will certainly test their fortitude. If they fall in Oklahoma City and Washington, games where they'll definitely be underdogs, they'll enter the final few games a disappointed group with nothing to play for. Recommendation: Fade

Chicago Bulls: There's been a hint of a resurrection after they dropped a seventh game in eight contests after finding out Dwyane Wade was done for the rest of the season. They covered that first night in a loss in Washington, won outright in a home upset of Utah the next on the second of a back-to-back and have demonstrated a steady pulse since. Jimmy Butler has started concentrating on moving the ball and including everyone. Nikola Mirotic is shooting the cover out of it and the schedule really opens the door for them to move back into the East's top eight. The Bulls will look to sweep the season series from Cleveland to end the month and open April at home against Atlanta, which will be the final team even sniffing around .500 they'll see this season. Although four of Chicago's last six will come on the road, all will come against teams with losing records. Recommendation: Ride cautiously

Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs come off an embarrassing effort in San Antonio, but will have a couple of days to lick their wounds before taking aim at avoiding fourth loss of the season at the hands of Chicago. After that, they're home for the Sixers, so they can definitely get back on track before April hits and panic will truly sit in if they're still defending miserably and not shooting straight. There will likely only be one situation where Cleveland will be a double-digit favorite in the coming month (April 4 vs. Orlando), so there are no sure things ahead. How important is getting the homecourt advantage to LeBron James? Can Kevin Love regain his groove? Will Kyle Korver ever overcome his pesky foot injury? J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert, x-factors since their arrival, also require finding a rhythm and defensive communication has been non-existent.

There's no reason to lay points like these are the defending champs just yet, but don't write them off as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference either. They may not wind up with the top seed, but that's not a deal-breaker for this group. Avoiding slipping all the way to No. 4 given how hot their three closest competitors have gotten should provide motivation to start kicking it into gear before the regular season ends, but there are back-to-backs to be concerned with too. Remaining healthy for the playoffs will be the primary concern for this group because they know they can turn it on with a full group. Recommendation: Fade cautiously

Detroit Pistons: After hoping Reggie Jackson's knees would respond, it's now looking like the team won't be able to count on a revival over the final weeks. They rested him in a critical game against Miami on Tuesday and have been starting Ish Smith and bringing him off the bench, but Stan Van Gundy sounded resigned to the fact it's probably best to shelve him. The loss at the buzzer was undeniably deflating since they had come home off a winless four-game road trip and blew a four-point lead in 30 seconds, so beating the Nets at home on Thursday and the Bucks in Milwaukee on Friday feels like a must. They won't play again until April 5 against the Raptors, beginning a four-game stretch against playoff-bound teams, so they may feel defeated before they even step on the floor for the first time next month. That season finale in Orlando isn't likely to mean anything. Recommendation: Fade

Indiana Pacers: Paul George made the right play in drawing a double-team and kicking it to Monta Ellis for the final shot in Tuesday's 115-114 loss to Minnesota, but the miss dropped the Pacers to .500 with a third loss in four outings. It was a game they should've won, which really puts pressure on them as they begin a cruical three-game road trip that will take them through Memphis, Toronto and Cleveland. The team announced that Glenn Robinson III will be re-evaluated late next week to determine when he'll return from a calf injury, while Rodney Stuckey (knee) and Al Jefferson (ankle) likely won't be part of the team's playoff push. With a home-and-home against the Raptors sandwiching that visit to the Q to open April, the short-handed Pacers could really dig themselves a hole entering the regular season's final week. Success likely hinges on Ellis and C.J. Miles generating enough offense to balance out the core group. George scored 37 points at home and the Pacers still lost to a slumping Wolves team that made the plays down the stretch to stage a comeback. That's not a promising sign. This group lost six straight entering the All-Star break and has never really recovered. Recommendation: Fade

Miami Heat: Defeating the Pistons on Whiteside's last-second tip allowed the Heat to remain locked in at No. 8 in the Eastern Conference, continuing a remarkable run after falling to 11-30 on Jan. 13. It marked Miami's first one-point win of the season. The team concludes the month with a home-and-home against New York, but they may not be favored in any game in April provided key regulars aren't rested against them. Dion Waiters remains out with an ankle injury likely to sideline him at least a few more games, but the resilient Heat will continue making their unlikely push. It is worth noting that the comeback win in Auburn Hills prevented what would've been the team's first three-game losing streak since this run began, so there's a chance this group of overachievers may have started running out of gas. Every game will be vital, but it sets up for a riveting finish for a Heat team that seemed destined for a high lottery pick just a few months back. Recommendation: Fade cautiously

Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks fell to 22-29 on the night Jabari Parker tore his ACL, so it's surprising that they climbed back up two games over .500 with Tuesday's 118-108 win in Charlotte. Tony Snell scored a season-high 26 points on 10-for-14 shooting while rookie Malcolm Brogdon added 14 points and 10 assists, continuing a trend that has helped them win 12 of 15. Khris Middleton returned and helped ease the burden of losing Parker, who was slumping after a strong early run next to Giannis Antetokounmpo. They're getting Michael Beasley (knee) and John Henson (thumb) back to add depth up front for this final April run, so there are indeed enough pieces to emerge as the East's No. 5 seed. They'll have to continue putting strong work on the road, but it's hard to deny Milwaukee's success has been well-deserved. Recommendation: Ride

New York Knicks: The Knicks are out of the playoff hunt, but began a final stretch of playing spoiler with a resounding Monday night home win over Detroit, welcoming Carmelo Anthony back from a knee injury. Outside of its season finale against Philadelphia, every one of New York's remaining games will carry playoff implications for the opponent. Six of the final eight will be in Madison Square Garden, but given how vital the 2017 Draft will be to the Knicks' future, it would be smarter to tank to improve the team's lottery chances. They've only got one back-to-back in play, so it will be interesting how they handle this situation. Even at home and in spite of Melo's strong return, you really can't trust a team that knows ping-pong ball combinations are more important than Ws. Recommendation: Fade cautiously

Orlando Magic: It looks like the Magic will lose 50 games for the fourth time in five years unless they finish with a flurry. Although they had won three of four last week for the first time since Dec. 26 last, that run ended with a 131-112 Monday night loss in Toronto. Orlando has just three April home dates to lean on but hasn't been very good there anyway, winning only one more game there than it has claimed on the road. Despite hoping to win games by locking down defensively, the Magic have surrendered 100 or more points in 45 of the last 52. Recommendation: Fade

Philadelphia 76ers: Dario Saric has likely succeeded in winning Rookie of the Year honors instead of injured teammate Joel Embiid, helping the Sixers match their combined total from each of their past two years. Can they reach 30 wins for the first time since 2013? With another game left against Brooklyn at home, there will be one among the 76ers' final seven in which they'll be favored. Philadelphia is short-handed with Jahlil Okafor still dealing with knee issues, but the remaining group has banded together and promising rookie wing Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has started asserting himself. Reaching the 30-win mark and potentially finishing ahead of the Knicks for third place in the Atlantic Division should drive this group to at least covering a few more spreads, something Philly has done in nine of 11 entering its March 29 home date against Atlanta. Recommendation: Ride cautiously

Toronto Raptors: Toronto has matched its season-high with six consecutive wins, managing it in an entirely different fashion than its previous run from Nov. 23-Dec.3 that saw a scoring average over 117 points per game. With Cory Joseph haveing replaced the injured Kyle Lowry as the starting point guard, the Raptors have become a dominant defensive group, surrendering 91 or fewer points in four of the six wins. They scored 131 against Orlando on Monday night by shooting the lights out, opening a four-game homestand where they'll be favored every time out. Carrying a double-digit winning streak into a huge regular-season finale at Cleveland on April 12 wouldn't be terribly surprising since the Raps' schedule is manageable, harboring only one back-to-back. Lowry should be back from wrist surgery at some point prior to the postseason and is already working on his conditioning, while DeMarre Carroll is attempting to overcome a back issue. Even though they'll likely be running fourth in the East entering April, they've got a shot at improving significantly if everything breaks right down the stretch. Recommendation: Ride

Washington Wizards: The Wizards won the Southeast for the first time ever, winning a division title for the first time in 38 years when they clinched on Tuesday night by coming back to win and cover against the Lakers. They'll now set their sights on claiming the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, pulling two games behind the Celtics. Realistically, they're likely to fall short of such a lofty goal since six of their final eight come on the road, but if they can pull off an upset against the Jazz to end March or the Warriors to open April, they can close with enough of a push to finish first or second and improve their chances going forward. A 50-win season would be the franchise's first since '79 and appears within reach. Recommendation: Ride

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 29

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OKC at ORL 07:00 PM

ORL +5.0

O 218.5

ATL at PHI 07:00 PM

PHI +2.5

U 211.0

MIA at NY 07:30 PM

NY +3.5

O 209.0

MIL at BOS 07:30 PM

BOS -7.5

U 209.5

CHA at TOR 07:30 PM

CHA +6.0

U 201.5

IND at MEM 08:00 PM

IND +4.0

U 196.0

DAL at NO 08:00 PM

DAL +5.0

U 201.5

GS at SA 09:30 PM

SA -4.5

U 208.0

WAS at LAC 10:30 PM

LAC -6.0

O 218.5

UTA at SAC 10:30 PM

SAC +7.5

U 195.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds to win the college football national title game next year:
Odds are from the Westgate SuperBook
3-1— Alabama
8-1— Florida State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, USC
10-1— Louisville
12-1— Michigan, LSU
20-1— Clemson, Oklahoma State, Texas
25-1— Penn State, Auburn

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) Tennessee Volunteers are only team that played all four teams in the Final Four this season; they were 0-5 against them, losing twice to South Carolina.

12) 1982 title game: North Carolina 63, Georgetown 62. UNC’s bench played a total of 13:00, Hoyas’ subs played total of 22:00. Maybe things have changed less than I think.

11) Was pricing some Air Jordan sneakers the other day, have never owned any. Damn, they’re expensive!!!! No thanks.

10) When a mid-major basketball school with limited resources wins a lot, it usually means they hire a lot of coaches, since the $$ schools poach their coaches. Take VCU, for instance…….

2002-06— Jeff Capel 79-41, 50-22 in CAA (went to Oklahoma)
2006-09— Anthony Grant 76-25, 45-9 in CAA (went to Alabama)
2009-15— Shaka Smart 163-56, 74-30 in CAA/A-14 (went to Texas)
2015-17— Will Wade 51-20, 28-8 in A-14 (went to LSU)
2017-present— Mike Rhoades (hired from Rice)

Keep in mind Capel/Grant both got fired and Smart is struggling at Texas. Maybe it is best to be the big fish in a smaller pond. And VCU does pay its coach well (Wade made $1.4M this season).

9) Detroit Red Wings will miss NHL playoffs this season for first time in 26 years.

8) Having instant replay stuff decided by NFL people in New York instead of by the ref on the field will be a good thing. Problem is, if there are ten games on at 1:00 and four of them have replay issues at the same time, which games take precedence?

7) UMass hired Matt McCall as its new basketball coach, after Pat Kelsey skipped out on them at the last minute last week. McCall is a former assistant for Billy Donovan at Florida; he went 48-18 in two seasons as the coach at Chattanooga.

6) Interesting article on espn.com this week, on how in the 90’s, Gonzaga University was in financial trouble; their undergraduate enrollment had dipped from 4,176 in 1990 to 2,791 in 1998.

Gonzaga’s basketball team started winning in ’99; in 2000, the freshman class was 900 kids and now, since 2004, seven new buildings have been built on campus, so the school that is located in eastern Washington (Spokane) is thriving, in part because of basketball’s success.

Undergraduate enrollment this year is 5,160.

5) Mets closer Jeurys Familia got a 15-game suspension for domestic violence issues.

4) Red Sox OF Mookie Betts has bowled seven perfect (300) games. Impressive.

3) Wyoming 81, Coastal Carolina 57— Last year, Nevada lost the opener of CBI final and then beat Morehead State twice in Reno to win tourney title. Same thing could be happening here; Cowboys made 12-31 on arc, while Coastal was 5-26 playing in high altitude. Final in Friday.

2) St Peter’s 77, Furman 51— Niko Medved is a coach who just jumped from Furman to Drake; he didn’t wait until the Paladins’ run in the CIT was over- he just bolted, so they played this game at St Peter’s with an interim coach. He couldn’t have waited a couple days? Coach Medved did his players a big disservice; in my opinion, he’s a creep.

For the record, Furman plays in the SoCon, the #13 league- they tied for first in and are #95 in country. Only two teams in the MVC, the #10 league, are ranked higher than Furman- Wichita State and Illinois State. Drake is the #258 team; not even sure why this guy changed jobs. Can the money be that much better?

To their credit, St Peter’s made 13-27 on the arc in this game; their reward is a trip to Corpus Christi for the tournament final Friday.

1— Corpus Christi 79, UMBC 61— Retrievers played without Jairus Lyles, were held to their lowest scoring output of season. Corpus Christi hosts the championship game against St Peter’s on Friday night— solid national TV exposure for these teams.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, March 30


Houston @ Portland

Game 709-710
March 30, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
126.442
Portland
122.840
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
232
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1
228
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-1); Over

LA Clippers @ Phoenix

Game 707-708
March 30, 2017 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
121.235
Phoenix
112.248
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 9
230
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
N/A

LA Lakers @ Minnesota

Game 705-706
March 30, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
106.913
Minnesota
120.508
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 13 1/2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 10 1/2
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-10 1/2); Under

Cleveland @ Chicago

Game 703-704
March 30, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
114.698
Chicago
122.198
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 7 1/2
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 5 1/2
210
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+5 1/2); Over

Brooklyn @ Detroit

Game 701-702
March 30, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brooklyn
110.159
Detroit
120.634
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 10 1/2
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 6
213
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-6); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 30

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BROOKLYN (16 - 58) at DETROIT (34 - 41) - 3/30/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games in the second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BROOKLYN is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games after a division game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 7-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 5-4 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (47 - 26) at CHICAGO (35 - 39) - 3/30/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after scoring 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CHICAGO is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 12-5 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 9-8 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (21 - 53) at MINNESOTA (29 - 44) - 3/30/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 31-41 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games this season.
LA LAKERS are 32-45 ATS (-17.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 19-33 ATS (-17.3 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 24-39 ATS (-18.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 48-68 ATS (-26.8 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-35 ATS (-15.5 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MINNESOTA is 17-31 ATS (-17.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 5-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (45 - 31) at PHOENIX (22 - 53) - 3/30/2017, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 7-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (51 - 23) at PORTLAND (36 - 38) - 3/30/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 42-32 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 98-59 ATS (+33.1 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
HOUSTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 5-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 30

Nets are 3-2 in their last five games; they covered five of last six road games. Over is 10-5 in their last 15 games. Pistons lost five in row, eight of last nine games; they’re 13-4 vs spread in last 17 home games. Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Home side won seven of last eight Brooklyn-Detroit games; Nets lost last three visits to Motor City, by 5-12-14 points. Three of last four series games went over.

Cavaliers lost three of last four games; they’re 4-7 vs spread in last 11 road games. Four of their last five games went over. Chicago won three of last five games, is 3-5 vs spread in last eight home games. Three of their last four games went over. Bulls won six of last seven games with Cleveland; three of last four series games went over the total. Cavaliers lost last three visits to Chicago, by 2-3-6 points.

Lakers lost 16 of last 18 games, are 1-5 vs spread in last six road games. Four of their last five games went over. Timberwolves lost six of last seven games, are 6-3 vs spread in last nine home games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Lakers are 5-3 in last eight games with Minnesota, but lost by 1-26 points in last two visits to the Twin Cities. Over is 8-2 in last eight series games.

Clippers lost four of last five games away from Staples Center; they’re 2-5 in last seven away games. Over is 10-6-1 in their last 17 road games. Suns lost their last nine games (2-7 vs spread); they’re 0-4-1 vs spread in last five home games. Three of their last four games went over. Clippers won their last three games with Phoenix, by 18-11-10 points; they won three of last five games in the desert (2-2-1 vs spread). Three of last four series games went over.

Rockets won seven of last nine games, are 6-1 vs spread in last seven road games. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Trailblazers won/covered seven of last eight games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight home games. Four of their last five games stayed under. Rockets won/covered last three games with Portland; over is 7-2 in last nine series games. Houston won last two visits here, by 14-16 points.




NBA

Thursday, March 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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7:30 PM
BROOKLYN vs. DETROIT
Brooklyn is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Brooklyn's last 21 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Detroit's last 21 games when playing Brooklyn
Detroit is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home

8:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CHICAGO
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games

8:00 PM
LA LAKERS vs. MINNESOTA
LA Lakers are 3-18 SU in their last 21 games on the road
LA Lakers are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games
Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when playing LA Lakers
Minnesota is 7-18 SU in their last 25 games when playing LA Lakers

10:00 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games on the road
LA Clippers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Phoenix is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

10:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. PORTLAND
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Portland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston


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