The Bum's 2016 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Monday, March 20

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ORLANDO
Philadelphia is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Orlando
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Orlando is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
UTAH vs. INDIANA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah's last 12 games on the road
Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Indiana is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Charlotte is 8-15-2 ATS in its last 25 games

7:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BOSTON
Washington is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Boston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home

8:00 PM
DENVER vs. HOUSTON
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Houston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver

8:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Golden State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Golden State is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games
Oklahoma City is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing Golden State

10:30 PM
NEW YORK vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 6 games on the road
New York is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games at home
LA Clippers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing at home against New York

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, March 20


New York @ LA Clippers

Game 613-614
March 20, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
115.161
LA Clippers
133.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 18
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 10 1/2
215 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-10 1/2); Under

Golden State @ Oklahoma City

Game 611-612
March 20, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
127.839
Oklahoma City
122.924
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 5
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 1
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-1); Over

Denver @ Houston

Game 609-610
March 20, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
117.655
Houston
133.325
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 15 1/2
244
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 9
236 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-9); Over

Washington @ Boston

Game 607-608
March 20, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
121.607
Boston
120.485
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 2 1/2
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+2 1/2); Under

Utah @ Indiana

Game 605-606
March 20, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
123.167
Indiana
115.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 7 1/2
188
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 2 1/2
193 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-2 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Charlotte

Game 603-604
March 20, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
115.725
Charlotte
118.851
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 3
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 5 1/2
203 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+5 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Orlando

Game 601-602
March 20, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
109.628
Orlando
118.453
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Orlando
by 9
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Orlando
by 5
211 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Orlando
(-5); Over

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Monday
March 20, 2017

Now that the opening rounds of the NCAA Tournaments have concluded, the NBA will step in slowly and take over the national attention on the hardwood once again.

Bettors finishing or starting their weeks on Sunday watched the favorites go 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread while the ‘over’ produced a 7-1 record.

Monday’s slate has seven games on tap, which includes a nationally televised double-header and that’s where we begin.

Game of the Night – Golden State at Oklahoma City (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)

The Warriors (55-14 SU, 31-36-2 ATS) and Thunder (40-29 SU, 39-29-1 ATS) will meet for fourth and final time this season on Monday from the Chesapeake Energy Arena. The last meeting at this venue didn’t turn out so well for the Oklahoma City, who were blasted 130-114 by Golden State on Feb. 11.

Including that win, the Warriors have and covered all three games this season versus the Thunder by an average of 21 points per game.

The big difference for this matchup is the status of Golden State forward Kevin Durant, who is still ‘out’ with a knee injury. In the three games against his former team this season, the All-Star posted 37.7 PPG and 9.3 rebounds while connecting on 63 percent of his shots from 3-point land.

You can make a case that Golden State is still solid with the trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green but it's obvious that it's nowhere close to the level with KD in the lineup.

Oddsmakers opened Golden State as a two-point road favorite for Monday and the Warriors have gone 26-10 as visitors this season but are just 14-21-1 versus the number.

The Thunder have been a great bet at home (26-9 SU, 24-10-1 ATS) this season and they’ve won and covered six of the last seven in front of its fans. OKC has won its last two games as a home underdog and is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS overall on the season.

Billy Donovan’s team has been a very streaky this season and they enter this matchup with momentum, winners in their last five games. The defense has been outstanding during this span, holding opponents to 99 PPG. Keeping Golden State and the league’s best offense (116.2 PPG) in check will be a much stiffer test but the Warriors haven’t been as prolific on the road (112.9 PPG).

The Warriors come into this game with some defensive swagger as well, holding its last two opponents to 92 points apiece. Albeit the wins and covers came versus the Magic and Bucks, Golden State needed a couple shots of confidence after roasting bettors with a 1-10 ATS drought (6-5 SU).

Monday’s total opened 221 and a couple shops moved to 222 ½ and that seems a little strange based on the form from the Warriors. Golden State has watched the ‘under’ cash in six straight and 11 of their last 12 games.
Plus, they’ve been the best ‘under’ bet in the NBA on the road this season (25-11, 69%).

Golden State holds a two-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference playoff race over San Antonio but it’s future odds to win the NBA Finals have been dropped to even money (Bet $100 to win $100).

We Meet Again

Denver (33-36 SU, 37-31 ATS) and Houston (48-22 SU, 40-30 ATS) will complete their home-and-home matchup on Monday night from the Toyota Center.

The pair met Saturday and the Rockets stopped the Nuggets 109-105 as 2 ½-point road favorites at the Pepsi Center. Denver did play with a short-handed squad as forwards Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari both sat out. Chandler is possible to return for the rematch but Gallinari remains 'doubtful' with a knee injury.

Houston didn’t shoot well from the field, going 5-of-24 (21%) from 3-point land and Saturday’s win was the first this season when making less than 10 triples. The Rockets made up for the poor shooting with a solid 28-of-35 performance from the free throw line.

Including this win, Houston is now 2-0 versus Denver this season and both wins came on the road. Prior to those outcomes, the Nuggets had won and covered three straight in this series.

Despite the loss, Denver has gone 8-4 both SU and ATS since the All-Star break. Also, the Nuggets haven’t dropped two straight games during this span and they’ve gone 3-1 on the road.

Houston doesn’t lose often at home (25-9 SU) but it’s certainly not a great team to back at the betting counter (16-18 ATS) either.

The Nuggets are currently holding onto the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and will likely see an early exit in the postseason because they haven’t proven themselves versus quality opponents. Against wining clubs, Denver has gone 9-22 this season while Houston has produced an eye opening 34-6 mark against clubs below .500.

For what it’s worth, Houston has gone 9-4 versus the Northwest Division this season while Denver has struggled with a 3-9 mark against the Southwest.

Saturday’s total closed as high as 241 and the game never had a shot to get there. Denver is tied for the best ‘over’ mark in the league with a 43-25 record to the high side. Houston leans to the ‘over’ (36-33-1) and that includes a 19-15 mark at home.

Houston opned as a nine-point favorite on Monday and the total is hovering between 236 and 237 at most shops.

H2H Trends to Watch

The Hornets and Hawks have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last seven encounters. Tonight’s total opened 203 and jumped up to 204 as of Monday morning.

Utah has won and covered three in a row against Indiana, including a 109-100 win on Jan. 21 as a seven-point home favorite. The Jazz are listed as a three-point road favorite over the Pacers.

In the last seven meetings, the winner of the Boston-Washington matchup has scored 111 points or more. The Wizards have won two of three this season while posting 123 and 118 in its victories.

The Clippers have won nine straight against the Knicks, which includes a 119-115 comeback win on Feb. 8 as one-point road favorites. Los Angeles has gone 7-1-1 ATS during this winning streak and the ‘under’ is 7-2.

Back-to-Back Notes

There are three teams that will be playing with no rest on Monday.

Listed below are their SU and ATS records, plus any notable trends that are in play.

Philadelphia (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS) – The 76ers have been a great look on no rest recently, especially versus the number. The club is 6-1 ATS in its last seven and they’ve won four of those games. Philadelphia has seen the ‘over’ go 11-5 and that includes a 6-2 run to the high side in its last eight B2B matchups.

Monday’s Opponent – at Orlando (+5)

Indiana (4-11 SU, 4-11 ATS) – The Pacers have struggled all season on zero days rest but they did win their last back-to-back spot, a 98-77 victory on Mar. 15 over Charlotte as three-point favorites. Indiana has had trouble scoring of late, averaging just 97.3 PPG in its last six. Not surprising, the ‘under’ has gone 5-1 in those games.

Monday’s Opponent – vs. Utah (+2.5)

Boston (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) – After winning six straight and nine of 10 on no rest, Boston has surrendered three consecutive losses when facing back-to-back situations. The defense gave up 116, 114 and 104 points in those losses.

Monday’s Opponent – vs. Washington (-3)

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, MARCH 20

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PHI at ORL 07:00 PM

PHI +6.0 ***********

UTA at IND 07:00 PM

UTA -2.0

U 192.0 **********

ATL at CHA 07:00 PM

CHA -6.0 **********

WAS at BOS 07:30 PM

WAS +3.5 **********

DEN at HOU 08:00 PM

DEN +8.5

O 236.0

GS at OKC 08:00 PM

GS -1.5

U 222.0

NY at LAC 10:30 PM

LAC -11.0

U 215.5

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Odds on who will get the most saves this season (William Hill Sports):

4-1— Kenley Jansen

9-2— Zach Britton

7-1— Mark Melancon, Aroldis Chapman

8-1— Edwin Diaz

10-1— Jeurys Familia

12-1— Craig Kimbrel, Wade Davis

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) You don’t read enough uplifting stories these days; saw one on Twitter Sunday night on how former Indiana coach Tom Crean is a terrific guy, doing random acts of kindness around the Bloomington area throughout his seven years coaching the Hoosiers.

Crean was being mentioned for the LSU job (he didn’t get it); he got Marquette to the Final Four when he had Dwyane Wade. The man can coach; am guessing he’ll have a new job soon, but being selfish, would actually be curious to hear him on TV for a season.

12) In 1980, Duke’s basketball coach quit to go to South Carolina, in part because the Duke AD didn’t have the coaches’ parking lot paved, even though the coach requested it after he made the Final Four in ’78. When the coach left, Duke hired a young coach named Krzyzewski to replace him, so Duke fans shouldn’t be too annoyed the Blue Devils lost to Carolina Sunday.

If the Gamecocks hadn’t hired Bill Foster away from Duke 37 years ago, maybe the Coach K era never would’ve happened.

11) Counting all four postseason tournaments, ACC teams are 5-15 against the spread. All this “Which conference is best/worst?” arguments are cyclical, it changes from year to year.

10) Last three times Arkansas made the NCAA tournament, they were eliminated by North Carolina, in 2008, 2015, 2017.

9) Ominous stats for UCLA (South), Oregon (Midwest), who are playing in regional semifinals this week: since ’06, Pac-12 teams are 10-6 in West Region semis/finals, but 1-11 in other region’s semis/finals. Arizona is still playing in the West region.

8) Hey, they found Tom Brady’s Super Bowl jersey; now I can sleep better.

7) Since 2010, Wisconsin/Kentucky (six each) have most Sweet 16 appearances.

6) Greg Maddux faced 20,421 hitters in his career; of those, only 310 times did he have a 3-0 count. Of the 310 3-0 counts, 177 of them were intentional walks.

5) NFL is considering shortening overtime to 10:00 instead of 15:00. They should eliminate it altogether in preseason games.

4) QB Josh McCown gets $6M for one year from the Jets, where he’ll have a chance to start.

3) LIU went 20-12 this season, 13-5 in the NEC, but they fired their coach Monday. Must be an interesting backstory there. Guy went 46-42 in five years in the NEC, making the NCAA’s in his first year. Doesn’t seem like a record that merited a dismissal.

2) Philadelphia 76ers’ studio show is unique; former St Joe’s coach Jim Lynam is an analyst, and so is his daughter Dei Lynam. I’m old enough to remember when St Joe’s won a tournament game way back when and his daughter ran on the court and hugged him- she was a kid back then.

1— Our thoughts/prayers go out to former NFL WR Dwight Clark, who announced he has ALS and is fighting that crippling disease. One thing, though…….

My mother passed away in 2004; she had Alzheimer’s, dementia and arthritis in her knees, but she never played one down of football. Football isn’t responsible for everything.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, March 21

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Toronto
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing Chicago
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

7:30 PM
DETROIT vs. BROOKLYN
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 1-19 SU in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Brooklyn's last 20 games when playing Detroit

7:30 PM
PHOENIX vs. MIAMI
Phoenix is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 8 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games

8:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. NEW ORLEANS
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New Orleans's last 16 games

8:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games
Golden State is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State

9:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. MINNESOTA
San Antonio is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
San Antonio is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing San Antonio

10:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. PORTLAND
Milwaukee is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Milwaukee is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Portland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

10:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Clippers are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the LA Lakers last 7 games

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 21

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CHICAGO (33 - 37) at TORONTO (41 - 29) - 3/21/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 10-0 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 10-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (34 - 36) at BROOKLYN (13 - 56) - 3/21/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) in road games this season.
DETROIT is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more this season.
DETROIT is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 6-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 4-4 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (22 - 48) at MIAMI (34 - 36) - 3/21/2017, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (40 - 30) at NEW ORLEANS (29 - 41) - 3/21/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
MEMPHIS is 129-95 ATS (+24.5 Units) off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 7-4 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 8-3 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (56 - 14) at DALLAS (30 - 39) - 3/21/2017, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 374-307 ATS (+36.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games this season.
DALLAS is 318-265 ATS (+26.5 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
DALLAS is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 147-123 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 137-113 ATS (+12.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 83-60 ATS (+17.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-3 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (53 - 16) at MINNESOTA (28 - 41) - 3/21/2017, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 991-864 ATS (+40.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 81-66 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 183-140 ATS (+29.0 Units) in March games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 150-104 ATS (+35.6 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 404-323 ATS (+48.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 48-67 ATS (-25.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (34 - 35) at PORTLAND (32 - 37) - 3/21/2017, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 4-1 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 3-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (42 - 29) at LA LAKERS (20 - 50) - 3/21/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 66-83 ATS (-25.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 170-214 ATS (-65.4 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA betting road map: Grizzlies mauling recent opponents

The Grizzlies had an impressive week. David Fizdale's crew won and covered four games, and capped it with a 104-96 upset win of the Spurs.

The NBA was probably happy that basketball fans turned their attention this weekend to the college version of the sport, as controversy surrounded the league for the second straight weekend when its nationally televised game lost its luster due to the resting of star players.

Of course, with the Playoffs on the horizon this issue will be soon forgotten. Al McMordie takes a look at what's ahead this week in the NBA.

Spread Watch

The Memphis Grizzlies had a most impressive week. David Fizdale's crew won and covered four games, and capped it with a 104-96 upset win of the San Antonio Spurs. And this stretch of strong play came out of nowhere, as Memphis had plunged to its lowest emotional point of the season right before, with five straight losses (including three at home).

This week, the Grizz will face three teams that they have beaten twice each this season: New Orleans (2-1), San Antonio (2-0) and Golden State (2-1). Remarkably, Memphis is the only team in the league to own multiple wins this season against both the Warriors and Spurs. And they have held the Spurs, who average over 106 points, to just 85 points per game.

Manu Ginobili touched upon exactly why that is after Saturday's loss, "They're a tough team. They are physical. They got us out of our comfort zone."

But as we saw in Memphis' third meeting this season vs. Golden State, it's tough to beat a great team three times in a row. After losing the season's first two tilts with Memphis, Golden State blew them out, 122-107, on February 10.

Look for San Antonio to react similarly Wednesday, as the Spurs are 18-5 SU and 15-8 ATS as a favorite when playing with double-revenge from losses in the first two meetings of a season.


Totals Watch

The Milwaukee Bucks' defense has finally started to click. It's held seven of its last 13 opponents to under 100 points, and has gone Under the total in three straight, and 11 of its last 13 games.

Coach Jason Kidd subscribes to the theory that defense wins games, and Milwaukee's 9-4 record in its last 13 games certainly supports that. And they currently own the NBA's second longest win streak (14 games) when holding its opponent to under 100 points (only the Rockets' streak, at 20 games, is longer).

Milwaukee currently sits in seventh place in the congested Eastern Conference - three games out of fifth place, but also two games out of tenth. Thus, you should expect the Bucks' intensity on the defensive end to remain constant as they makes a push toward the playoffs.

This week, the Bucks will travel out west to Portland and Sacramento, before returning home to host Atlanta and Chicago. The Kings (11-5 Under), Hawks (11-4 Under) and Bulls (9-2 Under) are all on extended streaks of their own playing low-scoring games, so consider taking the Under when the Bucks meet up with each of them this week.


Injury Watch

The Miami Heat have been sizzling hot since January 17, as they've won 23 of 29 games (24-5 ATS) to move into a tie for eighth place in the Eastern Conference. But the Heat's good fortune took a hit in Friday night's win over Minnesota when starting shooting guard Dion Waiters suffered a sprained ankle. Waiters - Miami's 3rd leading scorer - has been a big part of Miami's resurgence, but he's likely to miss several weeks. Josh Richardson and Wayne Ellington will pick up extra minutes, and are both capable players, but Waiters' absence will surely have a negative impact.

Indeed, in Miami's very first game following this injury, they were upset at home by Portland and saw their seven-game ATS win streak snapped in the process.
This week, the Heat will host the Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors, before heading north Sunday to play Boston. That game against the Celtics will be a tall task for Erik Spoelstra's men, as Boston's won all three meetings this season, and six straight, overall.


Schedule Watch

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a dogfight with the Clippers and Grizzlies for the all-important fifth seed, which would enable them to avoid the Warriors, Spurs and Rockets in the first round. This week, the Thunder have to play two of the NBA's top three teams (Warriors, Rockets) sandwiched around a game on Wednesday vs. the league's hottest ATS team (76ers).

Oklahoma City has defeated Philly 15 straight times (10-5 ATS), which is the second longest active win streak against an opponent (only Cleveland's 16-game win streak vs. Orlando is longer).

The Thunder are also the second hottest ATS team, with five straight point spread wins, so they don't have to be too worried about the fact that Philly has covered six straight games, and 15 of 18.

But the games vs. the Warriors and Rockets are another matter, entirely, as OKC is on an 0-6 SU/ATS run vs. the Warriors (including all three meetings this season), and are 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS vs. the Rockets.

The good news, though, for OKC in Monday's game vs. the Warriors is that it's a super 41-19 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win. So, don't be surprised if Russell Westbrook & Co. snap their losing streak to the Warriors.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, March 21


LA Clippers @ LA Lakers

Game 665-666
March 21, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
119.392
LA Lakers
108.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 11
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 8
221
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-8); Over

Milwaukee @ Portland

Game 663-664
March 21, 2017 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
118.758
Portland
122.809
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 4
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
N/A

San Antonio @ Minnesota

Game 661-662
March 21, 2017 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
121.465
Minnesota
123.017
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 5
205 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+5); Under

Golden State @ Dallas

Game 659-660
March 21, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
124.576
Dallas
127.173
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
203
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 4 1/2
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+4 1/2); Under

Memphis @ New Orleans

Game 657-658
March 21, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
119.908
New Orleans
127.586
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2 1/2
205
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-2 1/2); Over

Phoenix @ Miami

Game 655-656
March 21, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
109.668
Miami
126.420
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 17
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
N/A

Detroit @ Brooklyn

Game 653-654
March 21, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
115.174
Brooklyn
117.699
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brooklyn
by 2 1/2
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 5 1/2
214
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+5 1/2); Under

Chicago @ Toronto

Game 651-652
March 21, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
114.803
Toronto
118.399
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 3 1/2
196
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 7
201 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Tuesday
March 21, 2017

Four teams are laying points as visitors on Tuesday and all of them own winning straight up records in this role, but their numbers against the spread haven’t been as good.

Detroit (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) – The Pistons have been surprisingly good in this role and two of the four losses came to very hot teams in Miami and Washington. The club has won and covered three of their last four as road favorites but one of the other losses did come against Brooklyn, who is tonight’s opponent. The ‘over’ has gone 8-2 when Detroit is a road favorite and the Nets have had no issues pushing the pace at home.

Opening Line: Pistons -4 ½

Golden State (27-9 SU, 15-20-1 ATS) – It’s truly amazing that the Warriors have been road favorites in all but one of their away games and the one instance occurred when they rested players. Dallas will get the shot to knock off Golden State tonight and it has gone 10-13 SU and 13-10 ATS in this role at home. Make a note that most of those losses came earlier in the season when the Mavericks were dealing with injuries and they enter this matchup with a 7-1 ATS run in their last eight as home pups.

Opening Line: Warriors -3 ½

San Antonio (23-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) – Similar to the Warriors, it’s very common to see the Spurs laying points on the road and they’ve been a better investment for gamblers. However, Pop’s club is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in their last three away games and they’ll be facing a Minnesota team that has gone 9-1 ATS (6-4 SU) in its last 10 as a home underdog on Tuesday. Before you run to the counter and back the Timberwolves, make a note that San Antonio has won 10 straight (7-3 ATS) in this series and that includes five consecutive wins at the Target Center by double digits.

Opening Line: Spurs -5

L.A. Clippers (12-9 SU, 8-13 ATS) – Tuesday’s matchup versus the Lakers isn’t your typical road game and the Clippers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when laying points away. In the last 20 encounters, the Clippers have gone 16-4 versus the Lakers and they’ve covered 11 of those games. The Lakers defeated the Clippers 111-102 on Christmas but Chris Paul and Blake Griffin were both out.

Opening Line: Clippers -8

Non-Conference Action

Phoenix (22-48 SU, 34-34-2 ATS) at Miami (34-36 SU, 43-27 ATS)

The Heat (-12) are laying a heavy price for this game but the number is deserving. Despite losing a 115-104 decision to Portland on Sunday at home, Miami is 15-2 both SU and ATS in its last 17 from American Airlines Arena.

Phoenix has decided to go with a youth movement down the stretch and they enter this game on a four-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. The offense has lacked any pop (100 PPG) during this span and it will be facing a Heat team that has been shooting lights out at home recently.

Laying double digits is new territory for the Heat but they’ve owned the Suns at home in recent seasons, winning six straight (5-1 ATS) and five of the victories have come by double digits.

Phoenix has gone 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS on the road this season versus Eastern Conference opponents.

Milwaukee (34-35 SU, 30-39 ATS) at Portland (32-37 SU, 30-39 ATS)

Tough game to handicap when you look at the overall ATS records for both clubs, but if your handicapping leans to current form then Portland (-5) would certainly be a look over Milwaukee.

The Trail Blazers just wrapped a five-game road trip and produced a solid 4-1 record both SU and ATS. With Denver losing last night, Portland is only a half game out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Blazers have gone 2-1 versus the Nuggets this season and face them one more time on Mar. 28 from the Moda Center.

The first game back from a long road trip is never easy and the Blazers will be facing a rested team that's been on the West Coast for the last week.

Milwaukee is also in the middle of the playoff hunt and currently sits in seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks got drilled on Saturday at Golden State 117-92 but that was just their second loss in their last 10 games.

Jason Kidd’s team has been respectable versus the West this season with a 13-13 ledger but the road numbers (5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS) haven’t helped that cause. Portland’s inability to rack up wins versus the East (12-16) has hurt their postseason chances and going 6-7 both SU and ATS at home doesn’t provide much confidence for bettors.

Zero Days Rest

Only two teams playing back-to-back spots on Tuesday and below is their records and notable trends to watch.

Golden State (10-4 SU, 5-9 ATS) – You don’t want to make excuses for the Warriors but their record has been solid in back-to-back spots. They got caught early in the season to the Lakers (117-97), which could be the biggest surprise outcome of the season. Then, they lost on a buzzer beater to Miami and their rally versus the Wizards came up short in the game Kevin Durant got injured. The last setback was at San Antonio when Steve Kerr decided to not play his top four guys.

L.A. Clippers (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) – After dropping seven straight on no rest, Doc’s team has won and covered two of their last three on no rest.

Total Notes

-- Chicago has seen the ‘under’ go 44-26 this season, the best in the NBA, and the low side has posted identical 22-13 marks both at home and on the road.

-- Golden State has watched the ‘under’ cash in seven straight games and the low side has connected in 12 of the last 13.

-- The Warriors remain the best ‘under’ team in the NBA with a 26-11 (70%) record.

-- Phoenix has watched the ‘under’ go 5-0 in its last five.

-- The ‘over’ has gone 4-0 in the last four for San Antonio.

-- The Lakers have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in their last seven.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in nine straight meetings between the Lakers and Clippers.

-- Milwaukee has watched the ‘under’ go 11-3 since the All-Star break.

[StarDust Bum]

Silver tells owners to take note of rest
March 20, 2017

MIAMI (AP) NBA Commissioner Adam Silver sent a memo to the league's board of governors Monday, calling the way teams are choosing to rest starters in some games ''an extremely significant issue for our league'' and pressing owners to be more involved in the decision-making process.

Silver also told the owners that the matter will be discussed at league meetings next month after nationally televised games on back-to-back Saturday nights were diluted by decisions to rest star players.

''Decisions of this kind ... can affect fans and business partners, impact our reputation and damage the perception of our game,'' Silver wrote in the memo, which was obtained by The Associated Press. ''With so much at stake, it is simply not acceptable for governors to be uninvolved or to defer decision-making authority on these matters to others in their organizations.''

ESPN.com first reported the contents of the memo.

The rest issue has been an even hotter-than-usual talking point in the NBA of late with teams like Golden State and Cleveland - the last two NBA champions - electing to rest superstars in recent nationally televised games. Fans have complained on some occasions that they have paid a premium price to see stars play, then arrived at arenas only to find that those players are getting the game off.

It also can't sit well with the networks that paid $24 billion to the NBA in the latest television contract negotiations.

''Please also be reminded that under current league rules teams are required to provide notice to the league office, their opponent and the media immediately upon a determination that a player will not participate in a game due to rest,'' Silver wrote. ''Failure to abide by these rules will result in significant penalties.''

The Warriors chose to rest Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala for a nationally televised game against San Antonio on March 11. Coach Steve Kerr said he did it in response to a grueling stretch of the schedule that included eight games in eight different cities in 13 days.

''It's my call, and it's the right thing to do in terms of the way the season is playing out and the way the minutes have gone and (Kevin Durant's) injury,'' Kerr said when he announced the decision after a game against Minnesota the previous night. ''It's the right thing to do, so we're doing it.''

LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love rested for Cleveland against the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday night, though Irving and Love were both dealing with recent injuries.

It is not a new issue, though Silver noted that its frequency has escalated this season.

San Antonio was fined $250,000 by then-NBA commissioner David Stern in the 2012-13 season when coach Gregg Popovich sent Danny Green, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili home for rest on Nov. 29, 2012, rather than having them play Miami in the final game of a six-game road trip.

Stern said the fine was due to a litany of transgressions, but primarily because San Antonio did not alert the league or media of the players' unavailability prior to the game. Since then, the Spurs have announced in advance which players will rest.

Silver has said the league is very sensitive to players needing as much rest as possible to perform at their best and avoid injury. The league will start the regular season earlier next year so it can reduce the number of back-to-backs and stretches of four games in five nights that teams face.

[StarDust Bum]

Continuity in question for Pelicans
March 20, 2017

METAIRIE, La. (AP) Pelicans forward Solomon Hill hopes New Orleans can sell its fan base on the benefits of patience and continuity - tough as that may be for a team on the brink of missing the playoffs for a second straight season.

Recently, though, the Pelicans have begun seeing more of the results they expected when they traded for 6-foot-11 All-Star DeMarcus Cousins and put him in their front court alongside fellow All-Star Anthony Davis.

The Pelicans have won four of five - with three of those victories coming by double digits.

With 12 games left, the Pelicans might not be able to make up the 4+ games in the standings separating them from the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. But they might be able to show the type of promise ownership needs to see to justify allowing the current regime of general manager Dell Demps and affable head coach Alvin Gentry more time to get it right.

''Hopefully we can just try to save this framework, whether we make the playoffs or not,'' said Hill, who has averaged around 20 points in the Pelicans' past two games while getting increased ball-handling opportunities in Gentry's up-tempo offense.

Hill added that he ''most definitely would like to'' see Gentry and his staff back next season, along with the current core of the roster, which includes free-agent-to-be Jrue Holiday.

''Everybody says coach's offense is a players' dream, and now he has the certain pieces to implement it,'' Hill asserted after Monday's practice. ''We really have a good framework to sustain this.''

The Pelicans traded three guards and this summer's first- and second-round draft picks to Sacramento for Cousins. Gentry warned that it normally takes time for a team to play efficiently after making such a significant lineup change during the season. That was the case for New Orleans, which lost six of its first seven games with Cousins in the lineup.

For Gentry, New Orleans' recent success has stemmed not just from improved chemistry, but also a concerted effort to involve more players on offense. The Pelicans had six players score in double digits in a victory over Minnesota on Sunday. Cousins scored 15 points, well below his season average of 26.5 points, but New Orleans scored 123 and won by 14.

In each of their past five games, the Pelicans have scored at least 100 points, eclipsing 120 three times, albeit once in overtime.

Gentry said the Pelicans must understand that Cousins and Davis might not get as many shots as they did before the Feb. 19 trade, and that ''when we get other guys involved in the game, that's when we're really better as a team.''

Another challenge has been figuring out how to fit Cousins, 270-pound, post-up player, into the run-and-gun style Gentry prefers. What the Pelicans have done recently is have Davis defend more near the perimeter so he can get out quickly in transition. If an early scoring opportunity doesn't develop, New Orleans can pull up while Cousins, who often trails the play after defending down low, works his way into a half-court set.

''We've been playing with a lot of good pace. We've been getting the ball out quick and pushing it down the floor, getting some easy looks,'' Davis said. ''When we don't have that, we try to play inside-out.''

What Cousins, who is under contract for more season, makes of the team's recent form is unclear. The mercurial big man has avoided meeting with media since the middle of last week.

Gentry agreed with Davis that the Pelicans are ''back to playing at a pretty good pace ... and we're figuring out ways that we can keep that pace.''

Gentry also has been pleased by his team's resolve to make a late-season run, no matter how improbable its playoff chances are. One thing the Pelicans have going for them is they have three games left against Denver, which currently holds the West's final playoff seed. They also have one game each against Dallas and Portland, who are between them and Denver in the standings.

''With this group, they've all continued to have confidence and feel like ... we can be a playoff team,'' Gentry said. ''Until we're mathematically eliminated, we're going to still have that goal.''

[StarDust Bum]

Win Total Update
March 20, 2017

The marathon of the 82-game NBA regular season concludes on Wednesday Apr. 12 and we’re starting to see Win Total wagers start to cash.

Before the season began, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released NBA Win Totals for all 30 teams.

As of Monday Mar. 20, we’ve seen seven teams go either ‘over’ or ‘under’ their numbers posted by the oddsmakers.

Winners

Over Philadelphia 76ers (25.5)
Over Houston Rockets (44)

Under New York Knicks (40.5)
Under Portland Trail Blazers (45.5)
Under Los Angeles Clippers (54)
Under Boston Celtics (52.5)
Under Minnesota Timberwolves (41)

Along with the above winners, we also have nine more teams that will likely see their outcome decided in the next couple weeks.

On the Cusp

Under Detroit Pistons (45)
Under Indiana Pacers (45)

Over Miami Heat (34.5)
Over Milwaukee Bucks (35.5)
Over Washington Wizards (43)
Over Denver Nuggets (36.5)
Over Memphis Grizzlies (43.5)
Over San Antonio Spurs (57.5)
Over Utah Jazz (47.5)

Listed below are all of the teams, their win totals, overall records through Mar. 19, 2017 and their projected result.

NBA WIN TOTAL UPDATE (3/20/17)

Eastern Conference Win Total Overall Record Projection

Atlanta Hawks 44 37-32
Boston Celtics 52.5 44-26
Brooklyn Nets 21.5 13-56
Charlotte Hornets 40.5 30-39
Chicago Bulls 39.5 33-37
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 46-23
Detroit Pistons 45 34-36
Indiana Pacers 45 35-34
Miami Heat 34.5 34-36
Milwaukee Bucks 35.5 34-35
New York Knicks 40.5 27-42
Orlando Magic 36.5 25-45
Philadelphia 76ers 25.5 26-43
Toronto Raptors 50.5 41-29
Washington Wizards 43 42-27

Western Conference Win Total Overall Record Projection

Dallas Mavericks 39.5 30-39
Denver Nuggets 36.5 33-36
Houston Rockets 44 48-22
Golden State Warriors 66.5 55-14
Los Angeles Clippers 54 41-29
Los Angeles Lakers 25.5 20-50
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5 40-30
Minnesota Timberwolves 41 28-41
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 29-41
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5 40-29
Phoenix Suns 29 22-48
Portland Trail Blazers 45.5 32-37
Sacramento Kings 33 27-43
San Antonio Spurs 57.5 53-16
Utah Jazz 47.5 43-27

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, MARCH 21

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHI at TOR 07:00 PM

TOR -7.5

U 197.5

DET at BK 07:30 PM

DET -6.0

O 214.0

PHO at MIA 07:30 PM

MIA -12.0

U 216.5

[StarDust Bum]

MEM at NO 08:00 PM

NO -3.0

O 207.0

GS at DAL 08:30 PM

DAL +4.5 *****

U 206.0 *****

SA at MIN 09:30 PM

SA -5.0

O 204.0 *****

MIL at POR 10:00 PM

MIL +5.0 *****

U 208.0 *****

LAC at LAL 10:30 PM

LAL +9.5

O 221.5