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**Udog** · 10-21-2016, 09:53 AM

NBA Southwest Division betting preview and odds: Even in new era, Spurs reign supreme

Even with high pointspreads, the Spurs finished “in the black” ATS. They allowed – by far – the fewest points per game in the league (92.9) and have a Hall of Fame coach.

Dallas Mavericks (2015-16: 42-40 SU, 45-36-1 ATS)

Odds to Win the Division: +2200
Season Win Total: 38.5

Why to bet on the Mavericks: Save for one season (2012-13), the Mavs have made the playoffs every year this century. They still have Dirk Nowitzki and Rick Carlisle is one of the league’s better coaches. They added Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut in the offseason. Seth Curry (brother of Steph) could be an underrated acquisition. The last time this team finished with fewer than 40 wins in a non-lockout year was 1997-98. The bar is low and the depth in the West isn’t what it once was.

Why not to bet the Mavericks: I thought they grossly overpaid for Barnes. Barnes coming in to replace the departed Chandler Parsons is not a value add. The nucleus is old with Nowitzki now 38. They were outscored last season. I absolutely see this as a team in decline.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 38.5

Houston Rockets (2015-16: 41-41 SU, 37-45 ATS)

Odds to Win the Division: +900
Season Win Total: 44.0

Why to bet the Rockets: Last season should be considered somewhat of a “worst-case scenario.” I can’t see them being worse this year. This was the best ATS team in the league two years ago, so look for them to bounce back at the betting window as well. James Harden leads one of the five best offenses in the league. Mike D’Antoni was a good hire given the make-up of this team and they added both Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.

Why not to bet the Rockets: As good as they are offensively, the Rockets stink defensively. D’Antoni’s arrival doesn’t figure to help in that department nor does Dwight Howard leaving. Among playoff teams, Houston was tied with Portland for last in defensive efficiency. As disappointing as Howard was here, his interior presence will be missed.

Season Win Total: Over 44.0

Memphis Grizzlies (2015-16: 42-40 SU, 42-39-1 ATS)

Odds to Win the Division: +1100
Season Win Total: 42.5

Why to bet the Grizzlies: They can’t possibly be as injured as they were last season, right? Incredibly, 28 different players suited up for the Grizz last season, which was a single season NBA record. It was a huge money deal, but PG Mike Conley was retained. Also, the team was able to nab Chandler Parsons away from Dallas. This has been a playoff team for each of the last six seasons.

Why not to bet the Grizzlies: Outscored by nearly three points per 100 possessions last year, the team finished well “in the red” in terms of point differential (-2.2 per game), which was worst among all playoff teams. Their gap between actual and expected wins was the largest in the entire league. They were fortunate to go 8-3 SU in games decided by three points or less. One player’s health that they should not count on is Marc Gasol, who has missed 20+ games each of the last two seasons. Zach Randolph, believe it or not, is now 35. There’s not much depth on the bench. New head coach David Fizdale is a bit of a question mark.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 42.5 (love this one!)

New Orleans Pelicans (2015-16: 30-52 SU, 36-46 ATS)

Odds to Win the Division: +2800
Season Win Total: 37.0

Why to bet the Pelicans: They have Anthony Davis, who was hailed as a top five player going into last season. Davis missed 21 games a year ago while posting the worst field goal percentage of his young career. Look for a bounce back season from him and the team, which won 45 games two seasons ago and made the playoffs. Rookie Buddy Hield has looked good in the preseason. I have the Pelicans getting back to the postseason this year as the eight seed. They should improve upon last year’s dismal ATS mark.

Why not to bet the Pelicans: It remains to be seen if Davis can play close to a full 82-game season. He has missed at least 14 games every year in his pro career and has already suffered a Grade 2 sprained ankle. Other than him, not a lot jumps out at you on this roster. Jrue Holliday and Tyreke Evans, two other starters, are also likely to miss the season opener. The Pelicans ranked 28th in defensive efficiency last season, which was tied to Davis missing so many games.

Season Win Total Bet: Over 37.0

San Antonio Spurs: (2015-16: 67-15 SU, 44-38 ATS, 35-45-2 O/U)

Odds to Win the Division: -750
Season Win Total: 56.5

Why to bet the Spurs: Because they are the Spurs. As you can see they are the overwhelming favorite to take the division and I’d also consider them a lock to finish No. 2 in the West behind Golden State. Even with high pointspreads, this team finished “in the black” ATS. They allowed – by far – the fewest points per game in the league (92.9) and have a Hall of Fame coach. Pau Gasol, one of three players in the league to average at least 15 points and 10 rebounds each of the last two seasons, has come aboard.

Why not to bet the Spurs: At some point, the team will decline. It’s the end of an era with Tim Duncan having retired. Boris Diaw, David West and Boban Marjanovic also left. The gap between them and the Warriors will be much larger than it was last year.

Season Win Total: Over 56.5

**Udog** · 10-23-2016, 10:15 PM

NBA Southeast Division Betting Preview and odds: Plenty of new faces has division up for grabs

Atlanta is the slight +180 fave to win the Southeast Division. Out are Al Horford and Jeff Teague and in comes Dwight Howard.

Atlanta Hawks (2015-16: 48-34 SU, 42-39-1 ATS)

Odds to Win the Division: +180
Season Win Total: 43.5

Why to Bet On The Hawks: Almost by default, the Hawks are your de facto favorites in the Southeast. They have made the playoffs nine years in a row. This team ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency last season and is adding Dwight Howard to the fold, though that may no longer mean what it once did. Dennis Schroeder may be set to take the next step. Only Cleveland and Toronto had better point differentials last season among Eastern Conference teams. They have to improve upon an 0-5 SU record in overtime games, right?

Why Not to Bet On The Hawks: While the Hawks always make the playoffs, they typically don’t do much when the get there. Even with Howard, this incarnation doesn’t look as strong as the last two years. They lost both Al Horford and Jeff Teague. Other than Howard and Schroeder, the other three starters are all on the wrong side of 30.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 43.5

Charlotte Hornets (2015-16: 48-34 SU, 42-39-1 ATS)

Odds to Win the Division: +275
Season Win Total: 42.5

Why to bet the Hornets: Coming off a 48-win campaign, it appears as if the Hornets are being undervalued a bit. This team ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency last year. Keep in mind that they did without Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who is back and (presumably) healthy. Kemba Walker is off a career year where he averaged 20.9 points per game. This team was 30-11 SU last year at home.

Why not to bet the Hornets: While Kidd-Gilchrist is back and that should help the defense, the departures of Al Jefferson, Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee will hamper the offense. You know how I said Atlanta is likely to improve upon its 0-fer last year in overtime games? Well, the Hornets went 5-0 SU when games when to extra time in 2015-16. They’ll certainly regress in that department.

Season Win Total: Over 42.5

Miami Heat (2015-16: 48-34 SU, 43-38-1 ATS)

Odds to Win the Division: +900
Season Win Total: 34.5

Why to bet the Heat: With the mass exodus of talent, there’s a chance that the oddsmakers are undervaluing them. You won’t find another team being projected to regress more. This is a 13.5-win decline from last year. The team projected to decline the most last season (Portland) easily eclipsed its projection. There is some good young talent on hand, namely Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson.

Why not to bet the Heat: This isn’t Portland and the drop in talent is very real. Not only are “The Big Three” (LeBron, Wade, Bosh) all gone, so too is Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. There is a very real chance Pat Riley and the front office will elect to tank and do a total teardown. That means trading Goran Dragic. This team was only seventh in point differential last year (in the East) to begin with. A decline is all but assured; it’s only a question of how much.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 34.5

Orlando Magic (2015-16: 35-47 SU, 45-36-1 ATS)

Odds to Win the Division: +900
Season Win Total: 37.5

Why to bet the Magic: Frank Vogel’s team should be sound defensively. They brought in Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo, thus should certainly crack the top half in the league in terms of defensive efficiency (17th last year). Aaron Gordon might be a year away from being a superstar. The Magic actually finished with the best ATS record in the Eastern Conference last year, so clearly they were undervalued when getting points.

Why not to bet the Magic: Offensively, they are likely to struggle. Ibaka and Biyombo aren’t likely to help much at the end of the floor and I question how much free agents DJ Augustin and Jeff Green will as well. It will be tough to duplicate last year’s ATS record as oddsmakers are likely to respect them a bit more. They were 14-39 SU vs. .500 or better teams. Though they’ve improved each season, it’s been four straight last place finishes and no more than 35 wins in any season.

Season Win Total Bet: Under 37.5

Washington Wizards: (2015-16: 41-41 SU, 43-37-2 ATS)

Odds to Win the Division: +220
Season Win Total: 42.5

Why to bet the Wizards: The backcourt combination of John Wall and Bradley Beal just might make this the best team in the Southeast. Adding Markief Morris at the trade deadline led to a strong 18-13 SU finish.

Why not to bet the Wizards: Remember how the Wizards were supposed to make a run at Kevin Durant? They totally whiffed in free agency. Beal has never played more than 65 games in a season. I’m never enthralled with the idea of endorsing a Scott Brooks coached team too strongly.

Season Win Total: Over 42.5

**Udog** · 10-25-2016, 08:49 AM

NBA Atlantic Division Betting Preview and odds: Big things expected out of Celtics

The Celtics continue to improve their win total each year, going from 25 to 40 to 48 wins each of the past three seasons.

Boston Celtics (2015-16: 48-34 SU, 42-39-1 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: -110

Season Win Total: 52.5

Why Bet The Celtics: They continue to improve their win total each year, going from 25 to 40 to 48 wins each of the past three seasons. Boston has one of the best young coaches in the league with Brad Stevens and made a huge free agent addition this summer by acquiring Al Horford. He is an all-around talent and became the first player to ever have at least 60 steals, 80 three-pointers, 120 blocks and 200 assists in one season.

Why Not To Bet The Celtics: Boston is strong on defense, but they have been inconsistent on offense. The addition of Horford will help, but the Celtics are still a guard heavy team that lacks depth down low, especially if Horford misses any games this season.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 52.5 Wins

Brooklyn Nets (2015-16: 21-61 SU, 38-43-1 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +20000

Season Win Total: 21

Why Bet The Nets: A fresh start with new general manager Sean Marks and new head coach Kenny Atkinson. Brooklyn is finally starting to build for the future instead of relying on aging veterans who are past their prime. The Nets might be able to win more games than expected in the weak Eastern Conference.

Why Not To Bet The Nets: Brooklyn has been declining in each of the past three seasons going from 44 to 38 to 21 wins. The team has completely changed the coaching staff and much of the roster, so team chemistry and cohesiveness might be missing this season.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 21 Wins

New York Knicks (2015-16: 32-50 SU, 44-38 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +900

Season Win Total: 40.5

Why Bet The Knicks: New York made some big offseason moves by acquiring Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. The Knicks still have Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis and now have an overall lineup that can compete in the mediocre Eastern Conference.

Why Not To Bet The Knicks: New York has been a terrible defensive team in recent years. The addition of Noah should help, but overall it is still a weak defensive roster. Injuries will also be a major concern, especially since recent additions Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings have missed extensive time in the past.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 40.5 Wins

Philadelphia 76ers (2015-16: 10-72 SU, 37-44-1 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +10000

Season Win Total: 24.5

Why Bet The 76ers: They have some young talent, especially in the frontcourt with Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor. This depth in the frontcourt may enable the team to trade and acquire some backcourt talent this season.

Why Not To Bet The 76ers: Philadelphia has won less games in each of the past three seasons, going from 19 to 18 to 10 wins. They are still very weak in the backcourt and lack experience at both shooting guard and point guard. They were the most inefficient offense in the league last season.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 24.5 Wins

Toronto Raptors (2015-16: 56-26 SU, 45-37 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +105

Season Win Total: 50.5

Why Bet The Raptors: They have won the division each of the past three seasons while setting franchise records for wins with 48, 49 and 56 victories. They return the same consistent lineup this year. Toronto has a pair of legitimate star offensive players with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Also a strong defender in DeMarre Carroll.

Why Not To Bet The Raptors: While this team has won three division titles in a row, they have been unable to take it to the next level in the playoffs and surpass the elite teams in the Eastern Conference. Toronto did not make any major acquisitions this offseason, so depth is still an issue if any injuries occur.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 50.5 Wins

**Udog** · 10-25-2016, 10:44 AM

NBA Pacific Division Betting Preview and odds: Warriors are obviously the team to beat

With Kevin Durant joining the band, the Warriors are massive -5000 favorties to win the Pacific Division.

Golden State Warriors (2015-16: 73-9 SU, 45-35-2 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: -5000
Season Win Total: 66.5

Why To Bet The Warriors: After breaking the NBA record for regular season wins, the Warriors collapsed in the NBA Finals, blowing a 3-1 series lead to the Cavaliers so that will provide plenty of motivation for Golden St. While the big offseason news was the signing of Kevin Durant, lost in that was the signing of quality role players Zaza Pachulia, David West and JaVale McGee so this will once again be the best team top to bottom.

Why Not To Bet The Warriors: Their quest for the NBA wins record could have had some effect on the Finals collapse but that is tough to determine.
Nonetheless, since the Warriors own the record, it is unlikely that they try and break their own record this season so we will probably see them resting more toward the end of the season as to make a big postseason run. Golden St. will get the best effort from every team they play every night.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 66.5

Los Angeles Clippers (2015-16: 53-29 SU, 40-39-3 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +700
Season Win Total: 53.5

Why To Bet The Clippers: There will be plenty of motivation for the Clippers following a great but lost season a year ago. They won 53 games and that was with Blake Griffin sitting a good deal of it but then the playoffs came and the luck went south when Griffin and Chris Paul were lost for the rest of the season in Game Four against Portland. A healthy roster the entire season should have the Clippers near the top of the conference.

Why Not To Bet The Clippers: Griffin has been hurt at some point each of the last two seasons and while he is still pretty young, the concern for injury is always there. Los Angeles has made the playoffs each of the last five seasons but has not been able to get past the Conference Semifinals so the goal is to get at least a top three seed but they are another injury away of another underachieving season.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 53.5

Sacramento Kings (2015-16: 33-49 SU, 38-43-1 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +15000
Season Win Total: 34

Why To Bet The Kings: The Kings have a roster full of talent led by DeMarcus Cousins and their 33 wins last season was the first time they eclipsed 30 wins since the 2007-08 season. Sacramento had a solid draft and picked up some talent in free agency with Aaron Afflalo, Matt Barnes, Jordan Farmar and Ty Lawson. Sacramento has a new head coach so maybe Dave Jeerer can right the sinking ship.

Why Not To Bet The Kings: Sacramento has not been relevant in years and it did not do much in the offseason to improve. While the Kings signed some solid players, they lost Rajon Rondo so they are weak at the point. Cousins is clearly the franchise player but most teams have at least two players they can rely on to help carry the team and the Kings simply do not have that. Another year of mediocrity is likely in the forecast.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 34

Phoenix Suns (2015-16: 23-59 SU, 36-46-0 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +25000
Season Win Total: 30

Why To Bet The Suns: It is hard to believe that Phoenix has not made the playoffs since the 2009-2010 season and while it looked as though they were making strides two years prior to last season, they took a big step back with just 23 wins. Injuries were the reason however and Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, who were both averaging around 20 ppg, are both healthy again and they form a great backcourt with Devin Booker.

Why Not To Bet The Suns: It takes more than a strong backcourt and with the Western Conference as loaded as it is, it is still an uphill battle for Phoenix. The Suns are not void of talent by any means but they are young and the frontcourt remains a big question mark. Center Alex Len is decent but Tyson Chandler is old and the hope is rookie Dragan Bender can produce right away. Phoenix has to avoid the injury bug to compete.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 30

Los Angeles Lakers (2015-16: 17-65 SU, 36-46-0 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +25000
Season Win Total: 24.5

Why To Bet The Lakers: The Lakers have nowhere to go but up. The Kobe farewell tour from last season clearly hurt and distracted this team so with him out of the picture, the young players have a chance to develop. Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle, D'Angelo Russell and rookie Brandon Ingram are an exciting young group that could make this team into something special. The hiring of Luke Walton as coach was perfect.

Why Not To Bet The Lakers: Randle and Clarkson are in their third year while Russell is just in his second year so while the future is bright, especially by adding Ingram, the present is still a big question mark. Veteran leadership is there with Metta World Peace and Luol Deng but there is not much more experience after that. While the Lakers should win more than the
17 games they won last year, it may not be much more.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 24

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