Announcement

**Udog** · 06-16-2016, 08:16 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Regular season plus/minus for the Golden State Warriors this year:

+1,068-- Draymond Green (70% of minutes)

+1,023-- Steph Curry (67%)

+835-- Klay Thompson (67%)

+454-- Andre Iguodala (43%)

+451-- Harrison Barnes (51%)

+399-- Andrew Bogut (36%)

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......

13) Baseball's interleague trading deadline is July 31, but when I was a kid, back in the 70's, it was June 15. On June 15, 1976, the A's tried to sell Rollie Fingers/Joe Rudi to the Red Sox and Vida Blue to New York. Oakland had won the last five AL West titles, but had lost Catfish Hunter to free agency, and the owner was bailing out.

Now I was a 16-year old high school junior; this didn't set well with me, someone who had zero idea how the real world works. Three days later, the baseball commish nixed the deals and the players went back to Oakland, but things were never the same again.

I guess that day was when it hit me that sports are a big business, not just something that people do for fun.

12) Nationals 5, Cubs 4 (12)-- Chicago is now 40-4 when it scores 4+ runs. This had the feel of a postseason game.

11) Last time the #1 pick in NBA Draft came from the Pac-12 (or Pac-8 or Pac-10) was Bill Walton way back in 1974.

10) Philadelphia Eagles have doled out $280,254,834 in guaranteed salary so far in 2016; next highest figure in NFL this year: Giants, at roughly $141M.

9) You don't see a starting pitcher thrown out of a game for arguing balls, strikes very often; Tampa Bay's Jake Odorizzi got run by umpire Jerry Meals Tuesday nite. Meals is a notorious hitters' ump (over is 28-13-3 in Meals' games last two years).

8) Last major league player to play every position in one game: Shane Halter, way back on October 1, 2000 for Detroit.

7) Obscure baseball record: since 1938, of all the hitters to bat .300+ in a season, Billy Butler into the most doubleplays-- he hit into 32 twin killings in 2010, when he hit .318. Four guys hit into 31 DPs, including Matt Holliday and Jim Rice.

6) Another nominee for "Worst TV show ever": Marriage Boot Camp. Horrendous progam showcasing attention-starved couples getting in disputes of various kinds. I'd rather stare at color bars for an hour than watch another minute of that garbage.

5) Colorado Rockies DFA'd Jose Reyes yesterday, meaning they have ten days to trade him or else they can release him or send him to the minors, if he agrees to do that. Reyes will still get his $22M a year salary, but not sure a contender will want to pick him up-- there is no way a non-conender would pick him up, given domestic violence backlash involved. Hard to believe his career would end this way.

4) Chris Sale was 9-0, 1.58 in his first nine starts this year; he is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four. Why do players suddenly lose it or why do they suddenly regain their form?

3) WWE is returning to Las Vegas Sunday night for first time in eight years, at the new T-Mobile Arena just off the strip, kind of behind the New York-New York hotel.

2) Portland Trailblazers decided to fire their TV announcers this week, which makes me sad, since Mike Rice is one of my favorites. A former coach, Rice used to call Big West games on USA Network in the Tark the Shark glory years in the 80's-- his son Mike was the coach at Rutgers a few years ago. Rice was with the Trailblazers for 26 yeasrs and is immensely popular with Trailblazer fans.

1) Apparently they don't have public rest rooms in North Dakota.

Eagles' rookie QB Carson Wentz somehow got locked in a bathroom at a gas station in New Jersey on Wednesday; his rescue included garden shears.

If the Rams had drafted this guy, I'd probably be a little worried right now.

**Udog** · 06-16-2016, 08:18 AM

Favored Cavaliers battling some nasty NBA betting trends in Game 6

There have been six NBA Finals teams, down 3-2 in the series, favored in Game 6 since 1991. Just one of those favorites managed to cover, finishing 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU).

The Cleveland Cavaliers have jumped out of the frying pan and into the fire after avoiding elimination with a stunning 112-97 road win over the Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

The Cavaliers, who are now down 3-2 to the Warriors in the championship series after twin 41-point efforts from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving Monday, find themselves not only fighting a motivated Golden State squad (one with star forward Draymond Green returning from suspension), but also battling an eye-opening NBA betting trend as sportsbooks currently have Cleveland pegged as a 2.5-point home favorite for Game 6 Thursday.

The Cavs are a rare betting favorite facing elimination in the NBA Playoffs, a situation that has produced a 50-72-2 ATS record (71-53 SU) going back to the 1991 NBA Playoffs, with those faves covering the spread just 41 percent of the time. Narrowing down those numbers to just favorites down 3-2 in the series, and that NBA chalk is a measly 26-41-0 ATS (35-32 SU) – a 39 percent ATS belly ache.

Betting history continues to pile on LeBron & Co. heading into Game 6. Looking exclusively at the NBA Finals, there have been six teams, down 3-2 in the series, favored in Game 6 of the finals in the past 25 years. Just one of those favorites managed to cover the pointspread (2010 Los Angeles Lakers), finishing 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU).

The size of the spread has also played a significant factor when it comes to favorites facing elimination. Favorites of -3 or less (Cleveland opened -2 and moved to -2.5) have gone a collective 12-25-0 ATS or 32 percent (14-23 SU), with teams stuck in a 3-2 hole producing a 9-17-0 ATS mark (10-16 SU) for a 35 percent success rate at the window. Those favorites of -3 or less down 3-2 in the NBA Finals have been outscored 94.5-92.4 in Game 6 since 1991, equaling a 10-16-0 Over/Under count.

On the season, the Cavaliers are 7-5 SU and ATS as favorites of -3 or less including the postseason. The Warriors, on the other hand, have been betting underdogs just 10 times this season, boasting a 7-3 ATS record as pups including a 2-1 ATS mark in the playoffs.

Golden State is 3-2 ATS in the 2016 NBA Finals and has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games versus Cleveland, including a 4-1 ATS record in its last five contests inside Quicken Loans Arena.

Over/Under note: Favorites facing elimination in the NBA Playoffs have produced a 56-66 Over/Under record in the past 25 years (32-35 O/U in Game 6 situations), with faves trailing 3-2 in the NBA Finals finishing with a 2-4 O/U mark in Game 6.

**Udog** · 06-16-2016, 08:21 AM

NBA

Thursday, June 16

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NBA Finals Game 6 betting preview and odds: Warriors at Cavaliers
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The Cavaliers haven't lost back-to-back home games this season. If they do in Game 6 their season is over.

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.5, 207.5)

Warriors lead series 3-2

The Cleveland Cavaliers needed historic performances from Kyrie Irving and LeBron James to stay alive in the NBA Finals, and the two stars delivered. James and Irving will try to follow up their incredible efforts when Draymond Green returns to the lineup and the Golden State Warriors visit the Cavaliers with another chance to close out the series in Game 6 on Thursday.

Green was hit with a one-game suspension after the NBA deemed his hit to James’ groin in Game 4 a flagrant foul, and the Warriors defense was noticeably less cohesive without its leader. “I thought our defensive communication was lacking,” Golden State coach Steve Ker told reporters. “We had some plays where we didn’t pick up in transition and we had some cross matches that we didn’t identify and they got free, especially Kyrie, and made a lot of shots in transition where we just weren’t there.” James and Irving became the first pair of teammates in NBA Finals history to score at least 40 points in the same game when they both finished with 41 in Game 5, and Irving went 9-of-14 from the field in the second half as Cleveland pulled away. "You've got a guy like this who is very special," James told reporters of Irving. "It's probably one of the greatest performances I've ever seen live."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as slight 2-point home favorites and were quickly bet to -2.5 and have been at that number ever since. The total has yet to move off the opening number 207.5. Check out the complete line history for Game 6 here.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State’s defense took a second hit in addition to the loss of Green when anchor Andrew Bogut went down early in the third quarter of Game 5 with a knee injury. Bogut did not return to the game and underwent an MRI exam that revealed bone bruises that will force him out for the rest of the Finals but will not require surgery. The Warriors could make up for the loss with a little help on the offensive end from MVP Steph Curry, who went 8-of-21 from the field on Monday and is averaging 22.2 points on 42.4 percent shooting in the series – down from a league-best 30.1 points on 50.4 percent in the regular season.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Cleveland is trying to become the first team ever to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals and needs another blistering effort from Irving and James, who combined to account for 97 of the team’s 112 points in Game 5 including assists to other teammates. "Same thing,” Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters of the plan for Game 6 at home. “Continue to be aggressive, continue to bring physicality and continue to attack.” Cleveland got forward Kevin Love back from a concussion in Game 5 but the former All-Star was limited to two points on 1-of-5 shooting in 33 minutes.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland.
* Warriors are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Warriors last nine versus Eastern Conference opponents.
* Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six games following a ATS win.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are giving the slight edge to the Warriors with 53 percent of wagers taking the +2.5 and Golden State. As for the total, 58 percent of bettors are on the over.

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**Udog** · 06-16-2016, 08:25 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, June 16

Golden State @ Cleveland

Game 511-512
June 16, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
135.797
Cleveland
131.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 4
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2
207 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+2); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 16

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GOLDEN STATE (88 - 16) at CLEVELAND (71 - 30) - 6/16/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-43 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 65-45 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 46-33 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-8 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-6 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, June 16

Cleveland-Golden State (GSt 3-2)
Green is back for this game, which makes Warriors better on defense; Golden State is 4-5 on road in playoffs, with four of those five losses coming in Game 3's. Cleveland's loss in Game 4 was their first loss in eight home games in playoffs. Five of last seven Golden State games, four of last six Cavalier games stayed under the total. Warriors are 8-2 in last 10 games with Cleveland (under 6-3-1).

In the playoffs this spring, under is 50-32-1

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1
Final: Favorites: 3-2, Over: 2-3

NBA

Thursday, June 16

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. CLEVELAND
Golden State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland
Golden State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Golden State
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State

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**Udog** · 06-16-2016, 08:27 AM

WNBA

Thursday, June 16

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
NEW YORK vs. CONNECTICUT
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 7 games when playing Connecticut
Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York
Connecticut is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games

8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. DALLAS
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing at home against Seattle
Dallas is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Seattle

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**Udog** · 06-16-2016, 09:22 AM

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 16

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NEW YORK (6 - 4) at CONNECTICUT (2 - 9) - 6/16/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in June games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 30-19 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 5-4 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 7-2 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (4 - 7) at DALLAS (3 - 7) - 6/16/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) in road games after a division game since 1997.
SEATTLE is 101-74 ATS (+19.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game since 1997.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-4 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-3 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 06-16-2016, 09:44 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Thursday, June 16

New York @ Connecticut

Game 601-602
June 16, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
109.216
Connecticut
107.347
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New York
by 2
166
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New York
by 7 1/2
159 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Connecticut
(+7 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Dallas

Game 603-604
June 16, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
110.252
Dallas
108.094
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2
161
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 4 1/2
166
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+4 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 06-16-2016, 01:25 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, June 16

Golden State at Cleveland, 9:05 ET
Golden State: 45-73 ATS on road after scoring 60 or more in the first half last game
Cleveland: 20-9 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days

Announcement

Thursday's NBA and WNBA Trends and Indexes - 6/16

Thursday's NBA and WNBA Trends and Indexes - 6/16

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