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**Udog** · 06-02-2016, 08:14 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Median sales prices of existing single-family homes, in first quarter of 2016

-- San Francisco/Oakland Bay Area, $770,000

-- NYC/Northern New Jersey, $468,000

-- Seattle, $383,000

-- Boston, $379,000

-- Washington DC, $370,000

-- Portland, Oregon, $327,000

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud........

13) If Clayton Kershaw starts 32 games this year, he makes $1,080,357 per start. Reliever Adam Liberatore makes $507,500 this year. When it comes to decisions on who will get big outs late in games, let Kershaw get the big outs.

12) Seattle Mariners are 7-0-1 in road series this year, only major league team that has not lost a road series this season- they need to beat San Diego tonight to avoid its first loss in a road series. .

11) Astros' George Springer batting in the leadoff spot this year: 18-44 with four walks, two HBP, for an on-base % of .480, thru ten games. He had a .354 OB% in 44 games as the #2 hitter in the lineup.

10) Home teams are 101-24 SU in Game 7 of NBA playoff series; #1 seeds are 29-3 in Game 7's, all of which, obviously, having been played at home.

9) If this year's NBA Finals last seven games, they'll be spread out over 18 days, lot of time to practice. NBA teams don't practice a lot during the season.

8) Mookie Betts has five homers in his last two games, 12 for the year. He also has four triples, solid production from the leadoff spot.

7) Knuckleballer RA Dickey got only two misses on 48 swings against the Red Sox Sunday; in his first 10 starts, he averaged 10.5 misses per game.

6) Underrated MLB record that will be very hard to break: Sean Green got 19 total bases in one game. If you hit four homers in a game, you still need a triple to tie the record. Would need a windy day at Wrigley or a sugfest at Coors Field.

5) Since May 16, AL teams are 25-12 in interleague play.

4) Monmouth missed out on NCAA tournament last March because their non-league schedule wasn't so hot. That won't be an issue this year; they've got games, all on the road of course, at South Carolina-Syracuse-Memphis-North Carolina.

3) Anderson Varejao played for the Cavaliers earlier this year, is on the Warriors now, so he gets a championship ring no matter who wins the NBA Finals.

2) There are rumors former Cavaliers coach David Blatt will take a coaching job in Turkey; kind of wish he'd coach a college team here. People say he is a really good coach with a little bit of an ego-- sounds like a perfect college coach. NBA ball is more about the players than the coach; college is more of a coach's game.

1) Cal Golden Bears lose Jordan Matthews (13.5 ppg LY) as a graduate transfer, big blow for Cuonzo Martin's group. Social media has him heading to Gonzaga.

**Udog** · 06-02-2016, 08:16 AM

Is LeBron a good bet on the NBA's biggest stage?

LeBron James led teams are just 3-8 ATS in the last two NBA Finals.

We all know by now that this will be the sixth consecutive season featuring LeBron James in the NBA Finals and his seventh Finals appearance overall. We also know that he has won just two NBA titles in his six trips to the Finals.

But what does that mean for bettors? Is LeBron a good bet in the Finals? Or is the Finals the time to fade the "King"?

Well, lets take a look.

James has played in a total of 33 NBA Finals games during his career, posting just a 13-20 record in those games. That's a winning percentage of just 39.4 percent. So, not the best,

Looking deeper into that number you can see, when LeBron loses a Finals series, it never goes the distance and usually, they end rather quickly, averaging just 5.2 games per Finals. In the four Finals LeBron has lost his record is just 5-16 (23.8 percent).

Unfortunately when it comes to the spread, the numbers look very similar.

LeBron led teams are 13-19-1 against the spread in the Finals, cashing just 40.6 percent of the time. In fact, LeBron has had a winning ATS record just once in the NBA Finals. That was back in 2012, going 4-1 ATS on his way to leading the Miami Heat to the NBA Championship in five games over the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Since winning the series versus the Thunder it has been even worse.

LeBron led teams are just 6-12 ATS (33.3 percent) in the three seasons since, including just 3-8 ATS (27.3 percent) in the last two seasons. LeBron lost both of those Finals.

So while many pundits believe LeBron's legacy will be shaped by this Finals appearance, bettors should know not to put too much trust in the "King" this time around against Golden State.

**Udog** · 06-02-2016, 08:19 AM

NBA

Thursday, June 2

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NBA Finals Game 1 betting preview and odds: Cavaliers at Warriors
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The Warriors beat the Cavaliers in six games last time around, going 4-2 ATS in the process.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-5.5, 210)

The Golden State Warriors don't think their record 73-win season will feel complete unless they win the NBA title and the Cleveland Cavaliers are once again standing in their way. The Warriors attempt to knock off Cleveland in the NBA Finals for the second straight campaign when the best-of-seven series gets underway Thursday in Oakland, Calif.

Two-time MVP Stephen Curry is no longer bothered by the knee injury that interrupted his playoff experience and is purely focused on making sure the Warriors win the rematch of the series decided in six games last season. "I know we're a better team than we were last year, just off experience and what we've been through in this postseason," Curry told reporters on Wednesday. "(We're) better equipped to kind of handle the scene of The Finals and all that's kind of thrown at you when you get here." Cleveland forward LeBron James says his team is better positioned to win the rematch and he was definitely testy when told the Warriors are heavy favorites. "Not my concern," James told reporters. "I don't get involved in all of that -- underdog, overdog, whatever the case may be. It's stupidity."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 5.5-point home favorites over the Cavs for Game 1 and have yet to move off that number. The total has also yet to move of its opening number of 210. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "This series will be won by whichever team shoots better from three-point range. It's a volatile statistic, but these are the two best teams in the league from behind the arc."

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: James is playing in his seventh NBA Finals and has only emerged as a winner twice -- both times with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh as teammates on the Miami Heat. Cleveland was without power forward Kevin Love (shoulder) for all of last season's championship series, lost point guard Kyrie Irving (kneecap) in the opener and has Tryonn Lue as head coach after the midseason firing of David Blatt. "It's a big thing, and I just think that we have a different team than we had last year," Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue said at his Wednesday press conference. "Organization-wise, it's the same two teams, but playing-wise and players-wise, we're a different team. Kevin and Kyrie are both healthy, the addition of (backup forward) Channing Frye, we're a completely different team than we were last year."

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Curry scored 36 points in Game 7 as Golden State finished off its comeback from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference finals and he and shooting guard Klay Thompson combined for 62 3-point baskets in the series - 32 by Curry; 30 by Thompson. Coach Steve Kerr expects Curry's competitive nature to be in high form as former NBA players and James - who questioned how valuable Curry is after the MVP tally - continue to hurl slights in his direction. "He doesn't have to say anything," Kerr said at his Wednesday press conference. "He does his talking through his play, basically, but he definitely is motivated by things that people say about him or things that he reads or anything like that. The guy is as gifted and skilled as he is, and I think one of his greatest attributes is his competitive fire."

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus Pacific Division opponents.
* Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Golden State.
* Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 versus Eastern Conference opponents.

CONSENSUS: Early on the public is giving the slight edge to Golden State, with 54 percent of wagers on the defending champs. When it comes to the total, 62 percent of wagers are on the over.

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**Udog** · 06-02-2016, 08:20 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 2

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CLEVELAND (69 - 27) at GOLDEN STATE (85 - 14) - 6/2/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 55-41 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 44-34 ATS (+6.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 51-40 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 38-25 ATS (+10.5 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 61-47 ATS (+9.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 62-43 ATS (+14.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 44-29 ATS (+12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 6-6 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 8-4 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, June 2

Cleveland at Golden State, 9:00 ET
Cleveland: 3-12 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more
Golden State: 31-15 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, June 2

Cleveland-Golden State
Warriors won last five games with Cleveland, beating Cavaliers in six games in LY's Finals; once again they're facing a rookie NBA head coach in Finals. Golden State rallied back from down 3-1 to beat Thunder in semis, winning Game 7 Monday. Cleveland has not played since Friday. Cavaliers are 12-2 in playoffs, 7-2 on road going 1-2 at Toronto in Eastern finals- their guards aren't as good on defense as Thunder, a problem against Curry-Thompson.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1

NBA

Thursday, June 2

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games at home
Golden State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home

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**Udog** · 06-02-2016, 08:24 AM

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 2

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SAN ANTONIO (8 - 26) at LOS ANGELES (15 - 22) - 6/2/2016, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 48-75 ATS (-34.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games in May, June, or July games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 156-195 ATS (-58.5 Units) after scoring 75 points or more since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 124-163 ATS (-55.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-2 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 5-4 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Thursday, June 2

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Trend Report
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10:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. LOS ANGELES
San Antonio is 1-18 SU in its last 19 games on the road
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing San Antonio

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**Udog** · 06-02-2016, 09:45 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, June 2

Cleveland @ Golden State

Game 501-502
June 2, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
126.791
Golden State
134.644
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 8
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 5 1/2
210
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-5 1/2); Over

WNBA
Dunkel

Thursday, June 2

San Antonio @ Los Angeles

Game 651-652
June 2, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
102.034
Los Angeles
116.219
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 14
159
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 17 1/2
153
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(+17 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 06-02-2016, 01:34 PM

The three golden rules for betting totals during the NBA Finals

Of the 57 NBA Finals games played over the last ten seasons, not one has featured a total higher than 205.5.

The 2016 NBA Finals featuring the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers commences Thursday night in Oakland at Oracle Arena under the assumption that this matchup will produce some of the most outrageous television and radio ratings the sport has ever enjoyed.

That’s all fine and dandy for the networks and frequencies set to rake in massive profits from this star-studded affair, but our concern lies with how we can generate some additional revenue from the Steph Curry-LeBron James showdown.

As it pertains to the over/under, there are three rules you need to understand before attacking the 2016 NBA Finals.

RULE 1: Know your NBA officials

This rule applies to each of the four major professional sports leagues in North America, but today we’re focusing solely on the Association. I can’t express enough how imperative it is to identify both the officials working each respective game as well as the tendencies demonstrated by those officials throughout the course of the 2015-2016 NBA season.

Here’s a rundown of the 12 officials scheduled to work the 2016 NBA Finals, with their O/U records for the 2015-2016 NBA season:

Tony Brothers: 33-37
Mike Callahan: 35-40
James Capers: 35-31
Danny Crawford: 31-40
Marc Davis: 40-37
Scott Foster: 38-34
Ed Malloy: 28-35
Ken Mauer: 45-27
Monty McCutchen: 35-41
Jason Phillips: 32-40
Derrick Stafford: 30-37
Zach Zarba: 45-30

You’ll notice that the NBA is trotting out a pretty balanced group here in terms of 2015-2016 NBA totals, with seven of the 12 officials generally siding toward the under while the other five lean to the over.

RULE 2: Know your teams

What good is an understanding of the tendencies of each NBA official if we don’t additionally study the tendencies of each NBA team playing for the title?

*Note: The OVER is listed first in each of the below records.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Regular season: 45-36-1 overall, 22-18-1 at home, 23-18 on the road
Playoffs: 7-10 overall, 4-6 at home, 3-4 on the road
Trends: The UNDER is 3-1 in Golden State’s last four playoff games and 5-2 in Golden State’s last seven playoff games. In addition, the UNDER is 4-0 in Golden State’s last four games when playing on two days of rest.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Regular season: 41-41 overall, 22-19 at home, 19-22 on the road
Playoffs: 7-7 overall, 3-4 at home, 4-3 on the road
Trends: The UNDER has hit in three of Cleveland’s last five playoff games. In addition, the UNDER is 6-2 in Cleveland’s last eight games when playing on three or more days of rest.

HEAD TO HEAD THIS SEASON

12/25/15: Golden State 89 vs. Cleveland 83 (UNDER 207)
1/18/16: Golden State 132 at Cleveland 98 (OVER 210)

PACE

*Pace is defined as the number of possessions a team uses per game. More possessions lead to more shots, more shots lead to more points. It’s as simple as that.

Golden State: 101.6 (second in NBA)
Cleveland: 95.5 (28th in NBA)

RULE 3: Know your history

As the old adage goes, “Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

Yes, the game of professional basketball has changed over the last ten years and yes, there’s probably very little the 2009 NBA Finals between the Lakers and the Magic can teach us as it pertains to this year’s showdown between the Warriors and the Cavaliers. But a detailed and thorough historical analysis sometimes has a way of unearthing trends and patterns that can be useful in our efforts to gain an edge over the bookmakers.

You’ll notice below that we’ve compiled a detailed analysis of the last ten NBA Finals in regards to overs and unders. Here’s a quick breakdown of how to interpret the following data:

Record: O/U record for the Finals, with the over listed first
AT: The average O/U for the Finals
AS: The average total score for the Finals
HT: The highest O/U for the Finals
LT: The lowest O/U for the Finals

Warriors/Cavaliers (2015): 2-3-1, 197 AT vs. 194.2 AS, HT: 203.5, LT: 193.5
Spurs/Heat (2014): 2-3, 197 AT vs. 197.2 AS, HT: 198.5, LT: 195
Heat/Spurs (2013): 4-3, 189 AT vs. 194.7 AS, HT: 192, LT: 186
Heat/Thunder (2012): 3-1-1, 194 AT vs. 200.0 AS, HT: 196, LT: 195
Mavericks/Heat (2011): 2-3-1, 187 AT vs. 187.0 AS, HT: 188.5, LT: 184.5
Lakers/Celtics (2010): 1-5-1, 190 AT vs. 177.7 AS, HT: 192.5, LT: 186
Lakers/Magic (2009): 1-4, 201 AT vs. 191.8 AS, HT: 205.5, LT: 198
Celtics/Lakers (2008): 3-3, 192 AT vs. 196.0 AS, HT: 195.5, LT: 191.5
Spurs/Cavaliers (2007): 1-3, 178 AT vs. 167.0 AS, HT: 179.5, LT: 175.5
Heat/Mavericks (2006): 2-4, 189 AT vs. 184.6 AS, HT: 194, LT: 187

The first item worth noting here is that over the 57 total games played during the last ten NBA Finals, the under has gone 32-21-4, which is good for a winning percentage of 60.3 percent. Additionally, take note that if you would have blindly bet the under in every single NBA Finals matchup over the last ten years, you would have turned a profit in seven of those ten seasons. Not a bad way to close out a professional basketball season, right?

Notice anything else? Here’s a hint: This Golden State-Cleveland matchup has us in unchartered waters. Of the 57 NBA Finals games played over the last ten seasons, not one has featured a total higher than 205.5. Why is that significant? Well, Thursday night’s Game 1 at Oracle Arena opened with a total of 209 and is currently sitting at 209.5. Additionally, you’ll have to go back to March 30 in Utah (25 games) to find the last time the Warriors took the court with a closing total of less than 205.5 points.

Know your officials, know your teams, know your history. And with that, you are now properly equipped to attack the 2016 NBA Finals from a totals perspective.

Good luck and enjoy the action.

Announcement

Thursday's NBA and WNBA Trends and Indexes - 6/2

Thursday's NBA and WNBA Trends and Indexes - 6/2

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