Announcement

**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 08:03 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Golden Nugget sportsbook's college football over/unders for this coming fall..........

-- Houston Cougars 9, under -$150

-- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9, under -$125

-- Ohio State Buckeyes, 8.5, over -$115

-- Tennessee Volunteers, 10

-- Baylor Bears 9, under -$125

-- Michigan State Spartans 8.5, under -$130

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: College football knowledge, and DDLohaus handicaps the Preakness Stakes........

The Kentucky Derby is behind us and the race really ended as we had expected. Nyquist was all he was said to be; looked great winning the race in a very solid time. The top four favorites covered the top four spots with Exaggerator again the runner up. We couldn't collect on our big bets as Mohaymen could only manage fourth. We did hit the saver exacta but not much joy there....

The Preakness comes quickly and welcomes a host of newcomers trying to not only beat the Derby winner, but launch themselves into the summer spotlight as the racing season continues to crank up. As I sit here in Delaware, the weather forecast for Saturday is BAD; 90% chance of rain all morning into the afternoon and COLD with a high of 57 degrees. The weather forecast certainly requires a bit of restraint in wagering but also introduces a whole other set of variables when handicapping the race.

Nyquist is still the horse to beat. As I've said before, he has done nothing wrong and look really good in the Derby. I am convinced that Exaggerator is as honest as they come and he keeps Nyquist honest. If Nyquist doesn't show up, Exaggerator will turn the tables. These two (Nyquist and Exaggerator) are clear standouts in the 3yr old category so far this year; I just don't see a very deep crop of 3yr olds (yet). The problem is that they are both very short odds AND the weather conditions are sure to make conditions anything but ideal. Talent alone, these two run 1-2 but I challenge anyone to say, for sure, how they will respond to adverse conditions on Saturday.

As is customary, I will throw out a wildcard for you to consider. This runner may be worth a small wager and given the expected weather and track conditions is not a complete reach. Abiding Star is on a bit of a hot streak coming into the Preakness. He has won five in a row and has had success over wet tracks. He will likely be close to the front if not on the lead and may not look back. Distance is a concern and he may be a notch below many in here but horses do get brave sometimes and if he finds himself in front turning for home, the track is heavy and tiring, and the others don't fire their best he may shock at a big price and he would be a nice play underneath the two favorites.

Selections:
Nyquist: Deserving favorite and a notch better than the rest (just cant bet a 3/5 in adverse conditions)
Exaggerator: Honest, hard knocker capable of winning if top one doesn't fire his best (just cant bet a horse that has lost 4 times to top one and short odds)
Abiding Star: Longshot being tested for class and distance but may get brave on the front end and has handled off tracks.

The Bets:
$5WPS Abiding Star
$5EXBX Abiding Star/Nyquist/Exaggerator
$2TRIBX Abiding Star/Nyquist/Exagerator

Total Bets: $57.00

College football knowledge..........
13) LSU's new defensive coordinator last worked at Wisconsin; Tigers, who have 18 starters back, open the season Sept 3 against the Badgers at Lambeau Field.

12) USC plays Alabama, Stanford, Utah in September, none of them at home.

11) Urban Meyer has a 154-27 record, 50-4 at Ohio State; his defensvie coordinator this year is former Rutgers/Bucs coach Greg Schiano.

10) Texas A&M recruited only two of the top 20 recruits from the Lone Star State this year- they're on their fourth offensive coordinator in the last five years. Aggies are 16-10 overall the last two years, 17-15 in conference play the last four years.

9) Contrast that to Oklahoma State, which is 27-12 the last three years; their OC is in his fourth season in Stillwater, their DC is in his sixth season. Continuity helps.

8) UCLA's freshman kicker JJ Molson is the grandson of Montreal Canadiens' owner, beer magnate Geoff Molson; wonder if they'll be selling Molson beer at the Rose Bowl this year. Having a freshman kicker can drive you to drink.

7) Michigan State is 36-5 the last three years, but lost top two WRs and their QB who started for three years. Spartans play Notre Dame/Wisconsin on back/back early on in season. Mark D'Antonio is 7-2 against rival Michigan.

6) Tennessee hasn't won SEC East since 2007; they haven't won the SEC since '98, the year after Peyton Manning left. Vols' over/under win total in Las Vegas this year is 10, so with 18 starters back, Butch Davis' team has high expectations.

5) Mack Brown was 25-14 his last three years at Texas; Charlie Strong is 11-14 his first two years in Austin. Longhorns gave up 30.3 ppg last year.

4) Florida State is 49-6 the last four years; only one of their four September games is at home. RB Dalvin Cook won SEC rushing title by 164 yards LY.

3) Oregon went 9-4 LY, after going 48-5 the four years before that; they lost their bowl game after leading 31-0 at the half. Once again, the Ducks' QB will be a transfer from a I-AA school, this time Dakota Prukop from Montana State.

2) Ole Miss has its first-ever two-game winning streak over Alabama, which is hard to believe. Rebels play Florida State, Alabama and Georgia, all in September. Oy.

1) Michigan is 2-14 against Ohio State/Michigan State the last eight years.

**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 08:07 AM

NBA home underdogs have big betting bite in the conference finals

The Raptors are getting five points at home versus Cleveland while OKC is set at +2.5 hosting Golden State this weekend.

This weekend’s two NBA conference finals games – Saturday and Sunday - will be just the 32nd and 33rd time a team has been listed as a home underdog in a conference championship series since the 1991-92 season.

The Toronto Raptors, down 0-2 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference finals, are 5-point home pups hosting LeBron James and the Cavs Saturday while the Oklahoma City Thunder are getting 2.5 points from oddsmakers against the visiting Golden State Warriors in Game 3 of the West finals, with that series knotted at one game apiece.

Looking back over those previous 31 instances in which the home side was the betting underdog in that 24-year span, those host clubs posted an 18-12-1 ATS record (17-14 SU), covering the spread 60 percent of the time.

Crunching those conference finals spreads down to fit this weekend’s lines, and home underdogs of +2.5 and higher are 10-5-0 ATS, a bankroll building 67 percent winner against the NBA pointspreads since 1991-92. Those particular home pups finished 9-6 SU in those contests.

Those 15 NBA conference final home dogs of +2.5 or more scored an average of 93.8 points against an average of 92.3 from the road favorite, facing an average spread of +4.5 points. Toronto falls into even rarer company at +5, as one of just six teams to get five or more points from the books on their home court in the conference finals in the past 24 years. Those previous five qualifying teams posted a 3-2 ATS mark while going 2-3 SU.

The biggest home dog in that stretch were the 1997-98 Los Angeles Lakers +8 versus the Utah Jazz, who won 109-98 in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals. Utah would go on to sweep L.A. in four straight games.

Toronto hadn't been a home underdog in the playoffs before Game 3 and went a solid 5-1 ATS getting the points inside the Air Canada Centre during the regular season. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been a betting favorite in all 10 of its postseason games this year, with a 2-2 ATS record as road chalk. The Cavaliers were just 14-21-2 ATS as road favorites during the regular season.

In the Western side of the bracket, Oklahoma City has been a home pup only once in these playoff – losing 100-95 as a +2.5 underdog vs. San Antonio in Game 3 of the Western semifinals. The Thunder finished 0-1-1 ATS as home dogs in the regular season. Golden State is 2-2 ATS as a road fave this postseason and was 22-17-2 ATS as a road favorite during the regular season.

Overall, regardless of round, home underdogs are 174-163-8 ATS (51.6%) in the NBA Playoffs since 1991-92, with Eastern home dogs going 85-94-5 (47%) and West home pups putting up an 89-69-3 ATS count (56%). Those games have a 153-189-3 Over/Under record (55% Under).

**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 08:11 AM

NBA

Saturday, May 21

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Saturday's NBA Conference Finals betting preview and odds: Cavaliers at Raptors
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The Cavaliers have been bigger, stronger, faster and better than the Raptors in the first two games of the Eastern Conference final.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+5.5, 198.5)

Cavaliers lead series 2-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers have dominated the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals and look to record their 11th straight victory this postseason when they visit the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. Cleveland won the first two games of the series by an average of 25 points to become the sixth team in NBA history to start the postseason with 10 or more victories.

The San Antonio Spurs (12 in 2012) and Los Angeles Lakers (11 in both 1989 and 2001) are the only teams to begin the playoffs with more consecutive wins than the red-hot Cavaliers. "I don't think it feels like a streak," James told reporters. "It feels like we won one game, we won the next game. We've taken one step at a time. We've tried to take care of business." The Raptors are returning home but there are few observers expecting them to make it a series after the way they were outclassed in Cleveland. "I don't think our guys have quit. I refuse to believe that," Toronto coach Dwane Casey said after Game 2. "We've won 56 (regular-season) games. We've been down before. We've had some rough patches and we've bounced back. I think this is the first time in the playoffs we've lost two games in a row, so this team will bounce back. I believe in them and they've got to believe in themselves, and I think they do."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers destroyed the Raptors in the first two games of the Eastern Conference final, and heading up to Canada for Game 3 the books opened with the Cavs as 5.5-point road favorites. The line did drop down to Raptors +5 on Friday morning but it appears, at the time of publication of this preview, that the line is beginning to move back to 5.5 at most books. The total opened at 197.5 and by Friday morning the books moved it up a full point to 198.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (67-25, 44-45-3 ATS, 46-46 O/U): James was superb with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in Game 2 for his 15th career playoff triple-double and he also moved into fourth place on the all-time playoffs scoring list with 5,255 points, passing Shaquille O'Neal (5,250). James (23.5 average on 18-of-26 shooting) and point guard Kyrie Irving (26.5 on 23-of-39 shooting) have torched the Raptors at will as Cleveland averaged 111.5 points over the first two games. Power forward Kevin Love is averaging just 16.5 points and 4.5 rebounds after posting double-doubles in each of the Cavaliers' first eight postseason games.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (64-34, 50-48 ATS, 48-49-1 O/U): Point guard Kyle Lowry averaged just nine points in the first two games of the series and is 8-of-28 shooting, including 1-of-15 from 3-point range. He had seemingly put his postseason shooting slump behind him when he averaged 35.5 points over the final two games of the second-round series against Miami but he was a nonfactor in the two blowout losses in Cleveland. "I'm super confident," Lowry told reporters. "I missed countless 3s that I thought were good and that I made last series. That's why I'm not down on myself. We've got a game on Saturday, and I know I'm going to be much more effective."

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Finals games.
* Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 24-6 in Raptors last 30 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
* Under is 21-5-1 in the last 27 meetings in Toronto.

CONSENSUS: The Covers wagering public is favoring the Cavaliers at a rate of 61 percent. Over is the popular pick on the totals board picking up 70 percent of the action.

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**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 08:13 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 21

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CLEVELAND (67 - 25) at TORONTO (64 - 34) - 5/21/2016, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 176-221 ATS (-67.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 33-41 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
TORONTO is 110-143 ATS (-47.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 7-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 7-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, May 21

Cleveland at Toronto, 8:35 ET
Cleveland: 0-7 ATS in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7
Toronto: 33-19 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 21

Toronto-Cleveland (C 2-0)
Cavaliers won six of last eight games with Toronto; over is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Raptors lost by 31-19 points in first two games this series- they're 6-2 at home in playoffs. Cavs are 10-0 SU in the playoffs, 7-3 vs spread (over 5-4-1). Toronto won four of last five home games; three of last four went over. NBA playoff faves of 8+ points are 21-6 against the spread this season.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 3-1, over: 1-2-1

NBA

Saturday, May 21

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TORONTO
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Toronto's last 20 games when playing at home against Cleveland

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**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 08:17 AM

WNBA

Saturday, May 21

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Trend Report
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6:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. NEW YORK
Los Angeles is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games
New York is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
New York is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CONNECTICUT
Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Washington's last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Connecticut's last 8 games
Connecticut is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Washington

8:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games
San Antonio is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio

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**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 10:04 AM

WNBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 21

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LOS ANGELES (15 - 22) at NEW YORK (26 - 14) - 5/21/2016, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 81-110 ATS (-40.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 154-194 ATS (-59.4 Units) after scoring 75 points or more since 1997.
NEW YORK is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against Western conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 3-1 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 3-1 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (19 - 18) at CONNECTICUT (15 - 19) - 5/21/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 279-337 ATS (-91.7 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 176-221 ATS (-67.1 Units) vs. division opponents since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-4 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-2 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (8 - 26) at DALLAS (18 - 18) - 5/21/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 7-1 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-4 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 10:07 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, May 21

Cleveland @ Toronto

Game 709-710
May 21, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
132.452
Toronto
124.629
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 8
194
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 5 1/2
198 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-5 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 12:24 PM

WNBA
Dunkel

Saturday, May 21

Los Angeles @ New York

Game 651-652
May 21, 2016 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
113.264
New York
116.731
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New York
by 3 1/2
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New York
by 1
156
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(-1); Under

Washington @ Connecticut

Game 653-654
May 21, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
103.271
Connecticut
111.771
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Connecticut
by 8 1/2
146
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Connecticut
by 6
157
Dunkel Pick:
Connecticut
(-6); Under

San Antonio @ Dallas

Game 655-656
May 21, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
102.050
Dallas
107.847
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 6
160
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 11 1/2
152 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(+11 1/2); Over

Announcement

Saturday's NBA and WNBA Trends and Indexes - 5/21

Saturday's NBA and WNBA Trends and Indexes - 5/21

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