Announcement

**Udog** · 05-17-2016, 08:29 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Odds if you want to wager on outcome of Toronto-Cleveland series.......

Toronto in 4-- You collect 150-1.

Toronto in 5-- You collect 66-1.

Toronto in 6-- You collect 16-1.

Toronto in 7-- You collect 22-1.

Cleveland in 4-- You collect $260 on a $100 bet

Cleveland in 5-- You collect $150 on a $100 bet

Cleveland in 6-- You collec $400 on a $100 bet.

Cleveland in 7-- You collect $500 on a $100 bet.

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) Thunder 108, Warriors 102-- Golden State led 61-47 at half, but were held to 41 points in second half as Thunder grab home-court edge in series. Oklhaoma City won a game where Westbrook/Durant combined to shoot 17-51.

12) Over last ten years, Winnipeg/Edmonton are only two NHL teams who haven't won at least one playoff game.

11) Why was Roughned Odor so mad at Jose Bautista? Because of some stupid bat flip from LY's playoffs? Odor avoided Bautista's hard slide into second; not sure why that game turned into a WWE Ranger Rumble, but suspensions will be handed down.

10) A's 3B Danny Valencia has five HRs in his last four games, after not having any in his previous 17 games.

9) Couple of signings in college basketball: Omer Yurtseven signs with NC State; he is from Turkey. Jordy Tshimanga signs with Nebraska.

8) Serious question: Can Bill Clinton be his wife's running mate?

7) Tennessee Ttians cut Zach Mettenberger, leaving Matt Cassel as their #2 QB. Guy on ESPN who used to be an NFL GM said there is probably more than meets the eye to this story and if the Chargers don't pick him up then it is really a red flag.

6) Since 1960, worst winning %'s of NFL starting QBs:
0-10-- Zach Mettenberger, Brodie Croyle
0-8-- Curtis Painter
0-7-- John Beck, Gary Marangi

5) Syracuse offers a degree in Sports Analytics; where was this topic when I was a young college student? I had to drag myself thru with an English degree. No bueno.

4) Toronto center Valunciunas is out for Game 1 tonight, and doubtful for Game 2, which is bad news for the Raptors, but backup Biyombo played well against Miami.

3) I'll say this about the draft; no way in hell is Domnatas Sabonis of Gonzaga the #12 pick in this draft, where ESPN has him in their mock draft. Much higher.

2) 76ers are first NBA team to sell advertising on their uniforms, they got $15M over thrtee years from Stub Hub.

1) NBA Draft Lottery is tonight; you listen to experts, the real loser is the team that gets the #3 pick, since Simmons/Ingram are the consensus top two picks, no matter who gets those choices.

**Udog** · 05-17-2016, 08:30 AM

Plenty of big ATS betting trends heading into Game 1 of NBA Eastern finals

The underdog has covered for three straight years in Game 1 of the East finals and is 9-3 ATS in the series opener going back to 2003-04 (75 percent).

The NBA conference finals are a breeding ground for betting underdogs over the past 22 postseasons, with playoff pups going 141-107-4 ATS with a ticket to the NBA Finals on the line.

That 57 percent winning clip is enough to turn a profit over time, but pales in comparison to the Game 1 winning rate Eastern Conference underdogs have posted in that same span. Heading into Game 1 of the Eastern finals, with the Cleveland Cavaliers set as -10.5 favorites hosting the Toronto Raptors, underdogs are 13-8-1 ATS – covering 62 percent of the time since the 1993-94 season – in the opening contests of the East championship.

Last year, underdogs went 7-2 ATS in the NBA conference finals including a 3-1 ATS mark in the Eastern side of the bracket. The Cavaliers closed as 2.5-point underdogs at Atlanta in Game 1 of the 2015 Eastern Conference finals, and won outright 97-89. The underdog has covered for three straight years in Game 1 of the East finals and is 9-3 ATS in the series opener going back to 2003-04 (75 percent).

The Western Conference hasn’t been so one sided in favor of the dogs. Game 1 chalk is 11-11 ATS since 1993-94, with favorites going 4-2 ATS in Game 1 over the past six seasons. However, underdogs did go 4-1 ATS in the Western Conference finals overall last season, with the Golden State Warriors hosting the Houston Rockets. Golden State is a 7.5-point home fave hosting Oklahoma City for Game 1 of the conference championship series Monday.

Another historic knock going against the Cavs, and in favor of the Raptors, is the size of that Game 1 spread. Since the 1993-94 season, double-digit underdogs in the NBA conference finals are 5-1 ATS (83 percent). Sportsbooks opened Cleveland as a 10.5-point home favorite for Tuesday’s game, having ample rest after sweeping Atlanta in the second round. Toronto is coming off a grueling seven-game set versus Miami – its second full series after going seven games with the Indiana Pacers.

Total bettors may want to take note of that big spread as well, as those six games featuring a double-digit line have finished 1-5 Over/Under. Those games have seen an average of 180.8 combined points scored versus an average closing total of 196.6. Overall, conference finals games are 113-135-3 Over/Under in the past 22 seasons, including a 3-6 O/U count last year.

**Udog** · 05-17-2016, 08:30 AM

NBA

Tuesday, May 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday's NBA Conference Finals betting preview and odds: Raptors at Cavaliers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cleveland is 8-0 in the playoffs after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta, while Toronto went the full seven games to eliminate both Indiana and Miami.

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5, 201.5)

Series tied 0-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers have yet to be challenged this postseason and attempt to continue to cruise past opponents when they open the Eastern Conference finals against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday. Cleveland is 8-0 in the playoffs after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta, while Toronto went the full seven games to eliminate both Indiana and Miami.

The Cavaliers will be the fresher team having not played since May 8 while the Raptors completed a hard-fought series with the Miami Heat on Sunday. "I've always said anytime you get an opportunity to get some rest throughout the course of our season, it's always beneficial for anybody," Cavaliers forward LeBron James told reporters. "Doesn't matter if you're a 31-year-old guy who's played a lot of basketball or you're a 19-year-old kid who just came into the league." Toronto has reached the conference finals for the first time in franchise history but coach Dwane Casey - a Dallas assistant when that organization won the 2011 NBA title - doesn't feel his team is satisfied. "It’s very important for our program," Casey told reporters. "I think we've done everything we've set out to do, but we're not done yet. I know what it's like to win a championship. I'm not saying we can do that, but I think this group is hungry."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as double-digit favorites at home for Game 1 at -10.5 and the line hasn't moved as of Monday evening. The total opened at 202.5 and has come down a full point to 201.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (64-32, 50-46 ATS, 47-48-1 O/U): Point guard Kyle Lowry began the postseason in a miserable slump but he starts the conference finals as a red-shot performer after averaging 35.5 points in the final two games of the series against the Heat. "It's the dedication that I've put into this game of basketball for myself and for this organization," Lowry told reporters after having 35 points, nine assists, seven rebounds and four steals in the 116-89 Game 7 blowout victory. "I just wanted to make sure I could be the best player I could be, at all times - especially on the biggest stage." The Raptors will be without starting center Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) for at least the first two games of the series and Casey said Monday that "he's a little ways away from contributing in a playoff game."

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (65-25, 42-45-3 ATS, 45-45 O/U): James averaged 23.5 points through the first two rounds of the playoffs - below his career mark of 28 per game - as point guard Kyrie Irving (24.4) and power forward Kevin Love (18.9 points, 12.5 rebounds) have both had strong postseasons. Coach Tyronn Lue feels the help other players - including the occasional boost from supporting cast players like guard J.R. Smith and forward Channing Frye - has been a big aid to James. "I don't think he's been in this position before where he can just sit back and see the flow of the game, see where he has to take over the game and it's been great for him," Lue told reporters. "I mean, to average 23 points or 24 points and sweep both series is big for us because now our other guys are stepping up, they're playing well and we know LeBron always can play well."

TRENDS:

* Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Cavaliers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 8-1 in Raptors last 9 road games.
* Under is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Toronto Raptors are picking up 66 percent of the spread action as of Monday evening and Over 201.5 is grabbing 60 percent of the over/under plays.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 05-17-2016, 08:34 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, May 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (64 - 32) at CLEVELAND (65 - 25) - 5/17/2016, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 176-219 ATS (-64.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 49-63 ATS (-20.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 36-44 ATS (-12.4 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 5-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, May 17

Toronto-Cleveland (0-0)
Cavaliers won four of last six games with Toronto; four of last five tilts in series went over total. Raptors are in Final Four for first time; they won Game 7 over Miami Sunday afternoon, Cavaliers have been off for nine days- they're 8-0 in playoffs, 5-3 vs spread (over 4-4). Toronto is 1-3 in its last four road games (under 3-1).

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 0-1, over: 0-1

NBA

Tuesday, May 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:30 PM
TORONTO vs. CLEVELAND
Toronto is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 12 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Toronto
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 05-17-2016, 10:53 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, May 17

Toronto @ Cleveland

Game 703-704
May 17, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
124.276
Cleveland
130.805
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 6 1/2
196
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 10 1/2
202
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+10 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 05-17-2016, 01:09 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, May 17

Toronto at Cleveland, 8:35 ET
Toronto: 14-24 ATS after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists
Cleveland: 13-3 ATS after allowing 55 or more in first half in 2 straight games

Announcement

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/17

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/17

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment