Announcement

**Udog** · 05-11-2016, 08:13 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- Thunder 95, Spurs 91-- Road team has won three of five series games. This was only the second time this season Spurs lost consecutive games.

-- In his career, Gregg Popovich is 2-10 in elimination games on the road.

-- Penguins 4, Capitals 3 OT-- Pittsburgh advances in six games.

-- Bronx 10, Royals 7-- Lorenzo Cain hit three HRs in a losing cause.

-- Stations Casinos is going to buy the Palms in Las Vegas for $312.5M.

-- The NBA Draft has 60 picks, two per team; 63 players were invited to the NBA Combine. If you've declared for the draft but weren't invited to the Combine, please go back to college, unless your goal in life was to play in Turkey or the D-League.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings......

13) Only ten NBA head coaches have had their current job for more than two years. You grab the big money for as long as you can, put up with the insanity, then go on TV and relax. When coaches who win 50+ games get fired, you know its a nutty job.

12) Of the 32 NFL kickers who finished last season. 21 of them were not drafted.

11) Stephen Strasburg gets $175M for seven years from the Nationals; unusual for a Scott Boras client not to give free agency a shot. Finally, a sane person-- take the $$$ and run while you can!!!!

10) TV guys always are quick to praise AT&T Park in San Francisco, but there are bullpens on the field for one reason; the geniuses who planned this scenic ballpark forgot to incorporate them in the stadium's original plans. Whoops.

9) Christopher Kamka points out that of Todd Frazier's first 27 RBI this year, 16 of them came from the 7th inning on.

8) JT Realmuto lost a home run Monday night because a runner on first base went back to first base to tag up and Realmuto passed him, which means he is out. Nice to know Milwaukee 1B Chris Carter was paying attention; this happened in another Brewer game last month at Miller Park, but no one ever noticed.

Realmuto gets a single and one RBI but loses the home run.

7) Speaking of the Marlins, Dee Gordon's 80-game suspension ends in late July, but if the Marlins make the playoffs, Gordon is also ineligible for those games.

6) Mike DeCourcy of Sporting News reports that of the top ten vote getters in the NBA MVP voting, eight of them played 2+ years in college.

5) Random stat of the day: since 1984, the Portland Trailblazers hold the odd record of having the worst 3-point % (0-20) in a game they won. Lot of teams won without making a 3-pointer, but Portland missed the most, way back on December 10, 2002.

4) If I was a Seattle Mariners fan, I'd be excited; they're clearly the best team in the AL West and if their starting pitchers stay healthy, they're going to make the playoffs.

3) I like to watch the Mix Channel on DirecTV on baseball nights; can monitor eight games at once on my bigscreen. One small problem; Dodger games are never on the Mix Channel- that is channel 720 on DirecTV, by the way.

2) I'd have to be a masochist to watch the A's; they're terrible. Oakland starting pitchers lasted a total of nine innings in their last three games- they've finished the sixth inning once in their last ten road games.

Your five starting pitchers are like your five offensive linemen in the NFL; if those five guys aren't solid, your team cannot win.

1) I do not understand the new slide rule at second base and I think lot of players, managers feel the same way. No idea what the rule is and how it is supposed to be applied, because of the drastic inconsistencies in the first six weeks this season.

**Udog** · 05-11-2016, 08:17 AM

NBA

Wednesday, May 11

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Wednesday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds
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Stephen Curry had a wild night in his return to the lineup scoring 40 points (including an NBA record 17 points in overtime).

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors (-4.5, 188.5)

Series tied 1-1

The Toronto Raptors and the Miami Heat are not content with playing 48-minute basketball games in their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The teams will try to decide things in the allotted amount of time when the series, which is knotted at two wins apiece, shifts back to Toronto for Game 5 on Wednesday.

Dwyane Wade has been the best player in the series and was at it again with 30 points on 13-of-24 shooting in a 94-87 overtime win on Monday – the third overtime game in the series. “I worked my tail off to get my body to the point where I can play at an elite level and not worry about my age or anything,” Wade told reporters after logging 39 minutes in Game 4. “I know when I'm healthy I can play this game as good as anybody." Wade’s success and the strong play of Heat point guard Goran Dragic in the series has been in direct contrast to Toronto’s All-Star backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. DeRozan slumped to nine points on 4-of-17 shooting in Game 4 and is shooting 35 percent in the series while Lowry went 2-of-11 in the loss before fouling out in the fourth quarter.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 4.5-point favorites and by Tuesday afternoon the spread had been reduced to -4. The total opened at 187 and was bet all the way up to 188.5 by Tuesday evening. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE HEAT (54-39, 50-42-1 ATS, 37-55-1 O/U): Miami went 1-of-15 from 3-point range in Game 4 and trailed by nine points midway through the fourth quarter before Wade brought the team back and forced overtime on a driving layup with 12.6 seconds left. The Heat were playing without center Hassan Whiteside (knee) and had only three players reach double figures in scoring in an inconsistent offensive performance outside of Wade. "I'm shocked, at this point, that we haven't been able to score 100 points, and that's not at all to discredit Toronto,” Miami coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters. “It's actually the opposite. We have not been able to consistently get to our game."

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (62-31, 48-45 ATS, 44-48-1 O/U): Lowry appeared to break out of a postseason-long slump with a 33-point effort in Game 3 but struggled to find his shot again in Game 4. DeRozan injured his thumb in Game 2 and was clearly off with his shot in the last two contests, though he was reluctant to place all of the blame for his struggles on the injury. “It’s the feeling of being uncomfortable and not doing the things that you normally do with gripping the ball and everything,” DeRozan told reporters. “It’s nothing I’ll ever make an excuse about, but like I said, I know for sure I’m not going to shoot like I did (Monday in our) next game. I know that for a fact.”

TRENDS:

* Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Under is 8-1 in Heat last 9 overall.
* Under is 10-2 in Raptors last 12 overall.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors (-12.5, 216.5)

Warriors lead series 3-1

It took Stephen Curry about three quarters to shake off the rust before breaking the hearts of Portland Trail Blazers fans in Game 4. Curry, who played a total of two halves in the first eight games of the postseason, scored an NBA-record 17 points in overtime of Game 4 to give the Golden State Warriors a chance to close out the visiting Blazers in Game 5 on Wednesday.

Curry was not even assured of playing in Game 4 until making it through his pregame workout with no issues from an MCL sprain suffered in the first round against the Houston Rockets. Instead, the MVP logged 37 minutes off the bench and came alive in the fourth quarter before putting on a show in overtime and yelling, “I’m back” toward the crowd after draining one 3-pointer. "It took me awhile to get back in the flow," Curry told reporters. "When you miss three weeks, it’s really weird to walk back on the court. Like, the crowd out there going crazy and that competitive atmosphere again. So, just trying to get my bearings straight, make some plays and try and get a rhythm. And it took 48 minutes and things finally clicked.” Curry’s heroics overshadowed another strong performance from Portland point guard Damian Lillard, who finished with 36 points and 10 assists in the loss and was not ready to concede the series to the Warriors.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: Following Steph Curry's historic performance in Game 4 the Warriors opened as 11.5-point favorites for Game 5 and the public jumped all over that number and the books were forced to move the line up to -12.5 by Tuesday morning. The total opened at 215.5 and was bumped up a full point to 216.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (49-43, 48-44 ATS, 49-43 O/U): Lillard felt Portland had chances to win each of the last three games in the series and will go back to his hometown of Oakland, Calif., for Game 5 refusing to let the defending champions off easy. "We want to go out there and make sure they respect us, make sure they understand it's not going to be what everybody thinks it's going to be," Lillard told reporters. "It's not going to be no rolling over, it's not going to be no out here being scared, it's not going to be any of that." The Trail Blazers got strong efforts from C.J. McCollum (24 points) and Al-Farouq Aminu (18 points, 13 rebounds) in Game 4 to support Lillard but had some coverage breakdowns on Curry that need to be cleaned up before Wednesday.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (80-11, 52-37-2 ATS, 49-41-1 O/U): Curry was supposed to play 25 minutes or so on Monday but was pressed into extra duty when Shaun Livingston was ejected just before the half for arguing with officials. Curry ended up with 40 points and added nine rebounds and eight assists – the most important assist coming when he found Harrison Barnes on the wing for a tying 3-pointer in the final minutes of regulation after crashing the lane and dragging a host of defenders with him. “The guy’s played basically one basketball game in three weeks,” Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters of Curry. “I expected what I saw early, I expected a lot of rust. I don’t think anyone could’ve predicted the explosion. I figured that he’d find his stroke and make a few shots, but I mean, that was crazy.”

TRENDS:

* Trail Blazers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Over is 9-1 in Trail Blazers last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Over is 9-1 in Warriors last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.

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**Udog** · 05-11-2016, 08:21 AM

NBA
Short Sheet

Wednesday, May 11

Miami at Toronto, 8:00 ET
Miami: 17-7 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3
Toronto: 3-12 ATS in all playoff games

Portland at Golden State, 10:35 ET
Portland: 16-32 ATS after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games
Golden State: 22-11 ATS off a road win

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, May 11

Miami-Toronto (2-2)
Four series games decided by total of 21 points; three went to OT, road team won twice. Miami lost six of last nine games with Toronto, four of last five in Canada. Home side won nine of last 13 series games overall. Eight of last nine Miami games stayed under total, as have 10 of last 12 Raptor games. Lowry had 33 in Game 3 but is 12-46 in the other three games. Raptors are -44 with Valanciunas on bench. and he is not coming back in this series. Miami won Game 4 despite going 1-15 on the arc.

Portland-Golden State (GS 3-1)
Golden State nine of last 11 vs Portland, and covered 11 of last 14; with Curry putting on show (40 points) in Game 4, Blazers seem dead, with 0-5 SU/ATS record in last five visits to Oakland. Three of four in series went over total. Golden State won ten of its last 13 games, covered nine of last 11. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Lillard was just 4-12 on his 2-pointers in Game 4; Blazers had double digit lead Curry came off bench and played Superman. Warriors covered their last six home tilts.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 10-7, over: 8-9

NBA

Wednesday, May 11

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
MIAMI vs. TORONTO
Miami is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games at home

10:30 PM
PORTLAND vs. GOLDEN STATE
Portland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
Golden State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

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**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2016, 11:24 AM

Pro Basketball Trend Report

MIAMI (54 - 39) at TORONTO (62 - 31) - 5/11/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 50-42 ATS (+3.8 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 41-30 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
TORONTO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders this season.
TORONTO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 174-218 ATS (-65.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 47-62 ATS (-21.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 8-7 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-7 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

PORTLAND (49 - 43) at GOLDEN STATE (80 - 11) - 5/11/2016, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 51-37 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 40-30 ATS (+7.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 48-36 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 75-60 ATS (+9.0 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-39 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 101-80 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 11-4 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
12 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Udog** · 05-11-2016, 12:18 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, May 11

Miami @ Toronto

Game 537-538
May 11, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
123.052
Toronto
125.165
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2
196
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 4 1/2
188
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+4 1/2); Over

Portland @ Golden State

Game 539-540
May 11, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
120.663
Golden State
136.171
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 15 1/2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 12 1/2
217
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-12 1/2); Under

Announcement

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/11

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/11

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