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**Udog** · 05-07-2016, 07:22 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

-- Spurs 100, Thunder 96-- Spurs are 16-4 in series if they have a 2-1 lead.

-- Cavaliers 121, Hawks 108-- Do they really have to play anymore?

-- Thunder 2, Islanders 1 OT-- Tampa Bay wins both games in Brooklyn in OT.

-- Golfer Zac Blair was DQ'd after he used a putter that he bent when he smacked himself in the head with it. No bueno.

-- Marlins 6, Phillies 4-- Miami has won 11 of its last 12 games.

-- KLWheat likes Mohaymen in the Kentucky Derby.

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: DD Lohaus handicaps the Kentucky Derby....

First Saturday in May; must be Kentucky Derby Day!

Snuck up on me this year which again proves that the older you get, the faster time flies.

As I write this analysis and give my picks, the weather for Saturday looks gorgeous and should allow for all runners to give their best efforts. It is with that assumption that I make my analysis and selections.

The conversation begins with Nyquist. He has done nothing wrong and has been on quite a run since last year. He has beaten another top contender in this race (Exaggerator) three times! This team has won the Derby (and Preakness) before and Nyquist will likely be favored for the race. He is a logical favorite and his versatile running style makes him very dangerous.

Mohaymen came up short in the much anticipated race with Nyquist in the Florida Derby. Trainer calls it 'a throw out' and this guy looked fantastic in his last workout (46.8). May be a bit too fast to have enough left to handle this group but also could be peaking at the right time; maybe he didn't like losing his last (and first) in Florida and will be extra motivated to turn the tables on Nyquist. A lot to like if you're willing to throw out the last.

Gun Runner, for Steve Asmussen, is a the prototypical 'sharp-looker' from a high octane outfit. Has a steady race tab and been winning quite nicely. He will have to be on his toes for this one but may be ready to step forward. Like the 6F workout; not necessarily the time but the distance; tells me he has some bottom... I would not be surprised if this one makes some noise.

Exaggerator, as mentioned earlier is a top contender but hasn't figured out how to be Nyquist. A prime post position should give him lots of choices. Not sure I like to pick a horse that's been beaten three times by the expected race favorite. He is a hard knocker who gives an honest effort and maybe he just needed to figure things out. I think he's more likely to get a minor award.

Destin has had eight weeks off since his last race; a win in the Tampa Derby. This one has the looks of a runner flying under the radar for Todd Pletcher (if that's possible). Not thrilled with his latest workout, but I wouldn't be shocked if this one shows well on Saturday. This one will offer some value and worth playing underneath top ones.

The Bets:
$20WP Mohaymen: I think this guys turns the table and runs BIG on Saturday.
$10Ex Mohaymen/Nyquist, Gun Runner, Exaggerator, Destin
$5Ex Nyquist, Gun Runner, Exaggerator, Destin/Mohaymen
$1ExBx Nyquist/Gun Runner/Exaggerator/Destin
$2Tri Mohaymen/Nyquist/Gun Runner, Exaggerator, Destin

Total Bets: $118.00

**Udog** · 05-07-2016, 07:32 AM

NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, May 7

Toronto at Miami, 5:05 ET
Toronto: 14-30 ATS after a game with 15 or less assists
Miami: 22-14 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less

Golden State at Portland, 8:35 ET
Golden State: 13-3 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more
Portland: 42-64 ATS at home after failing to cover in 3 or + consecutive games

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 7

Miami-Toronto (1-1)
Teams split pair of OT games in Ontario, now head south. Miami lost five of last seven games with Toronto, including two of last three played in Miami. Home side won eight of last 11 series games. Six of last seven Miami games stayed under total, as have eight of last ten Raptor games. Lowry is 10-35 from floor in series; Raptors are +27 with Valanciunas on floor, -29 with him on bench. Toronto was -19 with Powell in game in Game 2, which helps explain why he only played 9:00.

Portland-Golden State (GS 2-0)
In 14 quarters since Curry hurt his knee, Warriors are +83, covering all three games without him; they've won eight of last nine vs Portland, and covered 10 of last 12. Blazers are 7-5 in last 12 games, with seven of last ten staying under the total. Golden State won nine of its last 11 games, covered eight of last nine- under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Warriors won three of last four visits to Portland. Over is 7-1 in last eight games between these two teams. Teams haven't played since Tuesday.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 7-3, over: 5-5

NBA

Saturday, May 7

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Trend Report
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5:00 PM
TORONTO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 10 games
Toronto is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games at home
Miami is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

8:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. PORTLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing Portland
Portland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State

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**Udog** · 05-07-2016, 08:48 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, May 7

Toronto @ Miami

Game 521-522
May 7, 2016 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
119.939
Miami
127.477
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 7 1/2
183
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 5
187 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-5); Under

Golden State @ Portland

Game 523-524
May 7, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
132.748
Portland
127.287
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 5 1/2
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 3
211 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-3); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 7

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TORONTO (61 - 30) at MIAMI (53 - 38) - 5/7/2016, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 173-217 ATS (-65.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 46-61 ATS (-21.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 49-41 ATS (+3.9 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 32-23 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
MIAMI is 40-29 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-6 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-6 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (79 - 10) at PORTLAND (48 - 42) - 5/7/2016, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 50-36 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-29 ATS (+7.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-35 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 74-59 ATS (+9.1 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 61-46 ATS (+10.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 100-79 ATS (+13.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 10-3 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/7

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/7

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