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**Udog** · 04-15-2016, 10:21 AM

NBA Playoff Opening Round Betting Strategies

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss.

With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four proven theories that have lined our pockets during the opening round of the NBA playoffs since 1991. Here’s what the machine has to say.

No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70% of time (54-133 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoffs.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch like an roaming 8-ball in the side pocket, going 4-25 SU and 9-20 ATS, including 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of four or more points in their last game.

Upset Losers Are Winners

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 90-24 SU and 68-42-4, a rock solid number. And if they are squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed they improve to 48-6 SU and 38-16-2 ATS – including 15-2-2 ATS when favored by less than eight points.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. They don’t lose their composure, instead they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 32-17-2 ATS in this role.

If these same teams are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 26-7 ATS, including 19-3 ATS when facing a non-division foe.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies, but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 46-63 SU and 44-61-4 ATS away from home this round, including 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in lid-lifters.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-27 SU and 8-22 ATS on their way to the canvas.

Trending

Defending champions (the Golden State Warriors in this case) are 74-33 SU and 59-44-4 ATS in opening round games the next season, including 16-8 SU and 15-8-1 ATS in Game One of Round One. They are, however, just 5-9 ATS as double-digit chalk in this round.

**Udog** · 04-15-2016, 10:27 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 16

Indiana @ Toronto

Game 501-502
April 16, 2016 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
117.604
Toronto
126.288
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 8 1/2
190
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 6 1/2
195
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-6 1/2); Under

Houston @ Golden State

Game 503-504
April 16, 2016 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
116.352
Golden State
133.390
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 17
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 13
226
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-13); Under

Boston @ Atlanta

Game 505-506
April 16, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
118.464
Atlanta
121.893
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 3 1/2
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 5
204
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+5); Over

Dallas @ Oklahoma City

Game 507-508
April 16, 2016 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
120.849
Oklahoma City
127.737
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 7
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 12
207 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+12); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 16

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INDIANA (45 - 37) at TORONTO (56 - 26) - 4/16/2016, 12:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
INDIANA is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 10-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-3 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (41 - 41) at GOLDEN STATE (73 - 9) - 4/16/2016, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 37-45 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 44-35 ATS (+5.5 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 93-70 ATS (+16.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-38 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against Southwest division opponents this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 55-40 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-23 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 48-35 ATS (+9.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-6 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (48 - 34) at ATLANTA (48 - 34) - 4/16/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 97-79 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 72-58 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 130-97 ATS (+23.3 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
ATLANTA is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 90-75 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 54-40 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-4 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (42 - 40) at OKLAHOMA CITY (55 - 27) - 4/16/2016, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 37-50 ATS (-18.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 346-278 ATS (+40.2 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 462-383 ATS (+40.7 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season.
DALLAS is 182-143 ATS (+24.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-44 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-31 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-5 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-5 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA

Saturday, April 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:30 PM
INDIANA vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Indiana's last 23 games
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home

3:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Houston is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games

7:00 PM
BOSTON vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games on the road
Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Boston

9:30 PM
DALLAS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Dallas is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 04-15-2016, 08:02 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, April 16

Indiana at Toronto, 12:35 ET
Indiana: 20-10 ATS after playing a game as an underdog
Toronto: 4-13 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread

Houston at Golden State, 3:35 ET
Houston: 6-18 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6
Golden State: 23-10 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more

Boston at Atlanta, 7:05 ET
Boston: 51-34 ATS after playing a game as favorite
Atlanta: 39-21 UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders

Dallas at Oklahoma City, 9:35 ET
Dallas: 13-4 ATS against Northwest division opponents
Oklahoma City: 6-14 ATS after game where they made 85% of free throws or better

**Udog** · 04-16-2016, 06:09 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 16

Indiana-Toronto (0-0)
Raptors won seven of last eight games with Indiana; Toronto has covered nine of last ten series games- six of last eight went over total. Pacers won six of last eight overall, three of last four on the road; they missed playoffs LY but are 5-2 in last seven first round series. Toronto lost its last five first round series; last time they won a first round series was 2001. Raptors won seven of last nine games overall, covering five of last seven.

Houston-Golden State (0-0)
Defending NBA champ Warriors had 73-9 regular season, now pressure is on; Golden State won nine of last 10 games (6-4 vs the spread) against Houston, covering last five played here. Rockets won last three games, also covered three of last four tries as an underdog. Warriors won title LY, are in playoffs for 4th year in a row, after making it once in 18 years. Houaton is 2-8 in first round series the last 19 years, but they did make Western finals LY.

Boston-Atlanta (0-0)
Celtics are in playoffs for 8th time in last nine years; they lost last two first round series, with last win in 2012. Boston lost last three games with the Hawks, with all three going over total- Celtics are 1-3 vs spread in last four visits here. Atlanta lost four of its last five games; four of its last six games stayed under total. Celtics won five of their last seven games, but covered only one of last six road games. Hawks are 3-2 vs spread in last five at home.

Dallas-Oklahoma City (0-0)
Billy Donovan's first NBA playoff game as a coach; Thunder won last four games with Dallas, but Mavericks are 6-4 vs spread last 10 vs OKC. Seven of last nine series games went over. Dallas won seven of last nine games, covered four of last five as a dog- 7 of last 9 Dallas games stayed under total. Mavericks are 2-6 in last eight first round series, but won NBA title in 2011- they haven't won playoff series since. Oklahoma City missed playoffs LY but won last four first round playoff series.

**Udog** · 04-16-2016, 06:18 AM

Saturday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds

Russell Westbrook and the Thunder open their playoffs hosting the Mavericks Saturday night.

The NBA playoffs tip off Saturday, beginning in Toronto and ending in Oklahoma City. Meanwhile, Golden State continues their historic season with a postseason mactchup against Houston.

Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors (-6.5, 194)

The Toronto Raptors felt they were ready to take a step forward in last season's playoffs but were instead swept in four games by the Washington Wizards. Second-seeded Toronto again attempts to climb upward when it opens the playoffs on Saturday against the seventh-seeded Indiana Pacers after winning a club-record 56 regular-season games.

That horrid showing a season ago lingers over a franchise that hasn't won a playoff series since 2001. "That experience is huge, and I keep talking about that to you guys, that everybody talks about 'Oh you got swept, you got whupped last year in the playoffs,'" coach Dwane Casey told reporters. "Yeah we did, but the experience factor was huge. I always say you've got to go through something to get to where you want to go, and last year was our something." Toronto closed the regular season with five wins in six games and Indiana also was stellar down the stretch by winning six of its last seven. Pacers All-Star small forward Paul George struggled in four games against Toronto this season by shooting just 30.8 percent from the field while averaging 16.3 points, well below his season mark of 23.1.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Sportsnet One (Toronto)

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT THE PACERS (45-37, 41-40-1 ATS, 37-45 O/U): Indiana needs to find some complimentary scoring if George again gets bottled up by the Raptors. Shooting guard Monta Ellis is no longer a bona fide scorer despite ranking second on the team in scoring (13.8) and the best frontcourt option is backup rookie power forward Myles Turner (10.3), who has cooled down recently after a strong six-week stretch that ended in late February. "There is such a thing as the rookie wall and I think he hit that," point guard George Hill told reporters. “Everybody hits that wall. That wall don't move. He just has to keep continuing to work on his craft, keep getting up shots, and it will take care of itself."

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (56-26, 45-37 ATS, 42-39-1 O/U): Toronto will be relying on the All-Star backcourt combo of shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (23.5) and point guard Kyle Lowry (21.2 points, 6.4 assists) to lead the way out of the opening round. The two standouts mesh well together and may receive a boost from small forward DeMarre Carroll, who recently returned after missing more than three months due to right knee surgery. Carroll is a solid defender when at his best but it remains to be seen how well he will fit in offensively after the long absence.

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games playing on two days rest.
* Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Pacers last eight games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Toronto.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-13, 225)

The Golden State Warriors just finished up the best regular season in NBA history and try to quickly turn the page to the playoffs and defending their NBA Championship. The Warriors will begin their quest for two in a row in Game 1 on Saturday by hosting the Houston Rockets, who barely scraped their way into the postseason after making it all the way to the Western Conference finals last season.

Golden State picked up win No. 73 in the season finale on Wednesday to break the record set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls and end a final month that featured some uneven play as the pressure mounted. The Warriors repeatedly suggested during the chase for 73 wins that a second championship remained the biggest goal, and the team will enter the playoffs healthy despite pushing hard over the final two weeks. The Rockets pushed to the finish line as well in order to outlast the Utah Jazz for the final playoff spot on the last day of the season and close out a tumultuous regular season. “A lot of people wrote us off and thought we weren’t going to make the playoffs and here we are,” Houston star James Harden told reporters. “So, we’re going to take it one game at a time and we’re facing guys we played in the Western Conference finals, and obviously they’re playing well and we are too."

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (41-41, 37-45 ATS, 47-35 O/U): Houston fired coach Kevin McHale less than a month into the season, dealt with trade rumors and reported disgruntlement from center Dwight Howard and battled inconsistency throughout the campaign before posting wins in three straight to close out the season and overcome a two-game deficit for the No. 8 spot. “With any situation any human being is in, when their back is against the wall, you’ll never know how strong you are until you have to be strong,” point guard Patrick Beverley told ESPN.com. “That’s the position we were in and it made us play some of the best basketball we’ve played all season.” The Rockets won their final three games by a total of 79 points, though the wins came against non-playoff teams in the Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (73-9, 45-35-2 ATS, 45-36-1 O/U): Golden State was led all season by reigning MVP Stephen Curry, who capped his historic campaign by burying 10 3-pointers on Wednesday to bring his total to 402. The star point guard, who is the only player in history to ever connect on 300 3-pointers in a season, averaged 30.1 points and prompted his coach Steve Kerr to gush to reporters: “He just had one of the most amazing seasons anyone has had in the history of the league.” Curry and his star teammates are the overwhelming favorites to repeat as champions and won all three regular-season meetings with the Rockets after knocking them off in five games in the Western Conference finals last spring.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
* Under is 5-1 in Rockets last six road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Warriors last four home games.

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks (-5.5, 204)

The mad scramble for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference ended with the Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics and Charlotte Hornets all finishing with identical records, leaving tiebreakers to decide the seeds. The fourth-seeded Hawks will have homecourt advantage when they host Game 1 against the fifth-seeded Celtics on Saturday.

The Heat took the third seed based on divisional tiebreakers giving them the Southeast and Atlanta landed the No. 4 spot thanks to its head-to-head records against Boston and Charlotte, setting up a series with no clear favorite. The Celtics caused the tiebreaker scenario on the final day of the regular season by overcoming a 24-point deficit to defeat Miami and bring that momentum into Game 1. “We're just going to play as hard as we can,” guard Avery Bradley told reporters. “We have to be that hard-nosed, grind team that plays hard every single possession.” The Hawks dropped their final two regular-season games and four of the last seven but logged a key 118-107 home victory over Boston in that span and finished with a 27-14 home record.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN, CSN New England (Boston), FSN Southeast (Atlanta)

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT THE CELTICS (48-34, 42-39-1 ATS, 39-43 O/U): Boston was pushing hard for homecourt advantage and is just 20-21 on the road but did not seem to be fretting about its trip to Atlanta after the win on Wednesday. “What more could you ask for than a chance? Play here, play there, play anywhere – let’s go compete,” Celtics coach Brad Stevens told reporters. All-Star guard Isaiah Thomas will need to quickly turn around a shooting slump that caused him to go 16-of-47 from the field over the final three games, beginning with a 6-of-19 effort in the loss at Atlanta on Apr. 9.

ABOUT THE HAWKS (48-34, 42-39-1 ATS, 38-44 O/U): Atlanta was the top-seeded team in the Eastern Conference at this time last spring but took a little longer to get started in 2015-16. The Hawks began to look like a contender again in the second half and ended up leading the league in defensive field goal percentage (43.2) while using a 14-3 stretch from Feb. 26 to March 28 to vault themselves into contention for homecourt advantage in the first round. “It’s time,” Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters. “Eighty-two games are done. This season starts now. It’s time to keep our heads up and start preparing and getting ready (for the playoffs).”

TRENDS:

* Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 8-1 in Celtics last nine games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1 in Hawks last five games overall.

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-11.5, 206.5)

The Oklahoma City Thunder flew under the radar as the third-best team in the Western Conference this season but are ready to make some noise in the postseason. The host Thunder start their quest to out-do Golden State and San Antonio in the West when they open the postseason against the sixth-seeded Dallas Mavericks on Saturday.

Oklahoma City is expected to roll through the Mavericks after winning all four regular-season meetings. This could be the Thunder's last chance to make a deep title run as All-Star small forward Kevin Durant is slated to become a free agent and there are clear indications that he's very much open to leaving Oklahoma City. Durant and All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook have carried the offense but Dallas played solid defense down the stretch by allowing fewer than 100 points in each of its last nine games, winning seven of them. "We stepped up to the occasion, especially shorthanded, so we've just got to continue to get healthy," Mavericks shooting guard Wesley Matthews told reporters. "Everybody is getting back together, and now we've just got that one focus of winning one game at a time."

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, FSN Oklahoma

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (42-40, 45-36-1 ATS, 39-42-1 O/U): Dallas is in the postseason for the 15th time in 16 seasons and will be hoping that 37-year-old power forward Dirk Nowitzki can once again step up under the playoff pressure. Nowitzki has a career scoring average of 25.3 in 140 postseason games but his average this season was below 20 points for the third time in four seasons as he finished at 18.3. The top three point guards are all ailing - J.J. Barea (groin) had a recent hot streak prior to his injury and is expected to play, starter Deron Williams (sports hernia) will attempt to play through the ailment and reserve Devin Harris (thumb) is probable.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (55-27, 37-44-1 ATS, 39-43 O/U): Westbrook figures to test the Dallas point guards in Game 1 to get a feel for their fitness level and assess how much damage he can inflict. He recorded 18 triple-doubles in the regular season, which ties for third all-time with former Los Angeles Lakers great Magic Johnson (1981-82) and trails only two marks put up by legendary Wilt Chamberlain (31 and 24) during the 1960s. Durant and Westbrook will look for scoring help from their teammates and the best bet to step up is backup center Enes Kanter, who recorded a career-best 25 double-doubles despite averaging just 21 minutes.

TRENDS:

* Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning SU record.
* Over is 5-1 in Mavericks last six games following a SU loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Thunder last six Conference Quarterfinals games.

**Udog** · 04-16-2016, 08:31 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Tubby Smith is the new Memphis State coach; here is his resume:

1991-95-- Tulsa 79-40, 52-20 in conference, two Sweet 16's

1995-97-- Georgia 45-19, 19-13 in SEC. Made NCAAs both years.

1997-2007-- Kentucky 263-83, 120-40 in SEC. Won national title in his first year, missed Sweet 16 in three of his last four in Lexington.

2007-12-- Minnesota 124-81, 46-62 in Big 14. Made NCAAs three of six years.

2013-16-- Texas Tech-- 46-50, 18-36 in Big X. Made NCAAs once in three years.

2016--present-- Memphis-- Has to deal with a spoiled, entitled fanbase.

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here.........

13) Here is one example of how the coaching carousel works and how it can be very strange:
-- Georgia Tech fired Brian Gregory after the season.
-- Memphis was so disgusted by Josh Pastner's 167-73 record that they helped him leave for Georgia Tech, even supplementing his salary at Tech for two years.
-- Memphis then hired Tubby Smith away from Texas Tech, paying Tech his buyout of $1M (that becomes important fairly soon).
-- UNLV fired Dave Rice January 10, but buitchered theor coaching search so badly that they still don't have a coach- they had finally hired Chris Beard last week (in his one year at Little Rock, he won 30+ games and an NCAA tourney game, but Beard is now at Texas Tech, where he previously spent a lomg time as an assistant.
-- Rumors as I type this are that Marvin Menzies will be UNLV's next coach; he has a 198-111 record in nine years at New Mexico State in the WAC, a once-proud league that is now one of the worst leagues in America (#27 out of 31).

So UNLV might not be going thru any of this mess had Georgia Tech not fired its coach, thats how weird some of this stuff gets.

12) Two years ago, Chris Beard made $70,000 as the coach at Angelo State in Texas; he made $236K this year at Little Rock, was going to make $1.15M or so at UNLV this fall, now he'll make over $2M a year a Texas Tech, which ain't an easy job, seeing as most of other schools in Big X all have heavyweight, Hall-of-Fame type coaches.

Beard lasted less than a week at UNLV; he has been quite a vagabond in his coaching career, but Texas seems like home for him. Texas Tech is a harder job than UNLV is though, tougher league. At UNLV, they care a lot about basketball; at Texas Tech, it is something to do between football season and spring football.

11) Barry Anderson lives in Chicago; he is quitting his job after 12 years-- who is this guy? For the last 12 years, Mr Anderson has worn the Benny the Bull costume at Chicago Bull games. Now a new Benny has to be trained; not as easy as it looks.

10) Brooklyn Nets fired their trainer, who had been with the club for 16 years and their VP of Communications, who had been there for 23 years. It can be a cruel world sometimes-- apparently the Nets want a fresh start from top to bottom.

9) East Tennessee State coach Steve Forbes called Penny Hardaway "the best high school player I've ever seen", high praise from a veteran coach. Hardaway is now a high school coach in the Memphis area, and tried for the Memphis State job.

8) NBA will put advertisements on its players' jerseys starting in 2017-18.

7) Stephen Curry scored 30.1 ppg in 34.2 minutes per game, the fewest minutes an NBA scoring champion has averaged in one season.

6) Kike Hernandez is now 10-16 with three homers off Madison Bumgarner.

5) Indianapolis Colts requested not to have a bye week after their Week 4 London trip- they don't want their bye so early in the season- their wish was granted.

4) Mark Trumbo hit two homers in one inning (7th) last night, as Baltimore scofed nine times in 7th in an 11-5 win over the Rangers in Arlington.

3) Braves/Twins both came from behind to get their first wins of the season Friday.

2) Added an old movie scene to my list of all-time favorites last night.

In the 2002 movie The Rookie, based on a Texas high school teacher who reaches the major leagues as a relief pitcher, the scene where he is throwing in the bullpen and his wife and two kids yell down from the walkway to get his attwntion is just a great scene- imagine what a thrill it must have been for that guy. Just an excellent scene.

1) Movie trivia; First batter that Jim Morris faced in the majors was Texas SS Royce Clayton; nine years later, Clayton was an actor who played Miguel Tejada in the very fine baseball movie, Moneyball.

**Udog** · 04-16-2016, 10:42 AM

NBA

Saturday, April 16

Here's the top 5 NBA teams ATS heading into the playoffs

1. Warriors 45-35-2
2. Mavs 45-36-1
3. Raps 45-37
4. Spurs 44-38
5. Blazers 44-38

And the worst 5 NBA teams ATS heading into playoffs

1. Rockets 37-45
2. Thunder 37-44-1
3. Cavs 37-42-3
4. Pacers41-40-1
5. Clips 40-39-3

**Udog** · 04-16-2016, 01:53 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, April 17

Memphis @ San Antonio

Game 513-514
April 17, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
113.137
San Antonio
125.115
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 12
182
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 15 1/2
190
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+15 1/2); Under

Portland @ LA Clippers

Game 515-516
April 17, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
120.811
LA Clippers
126.682
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 6
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 8
209
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+8); Under

Detroit @ Cleveland

Game 509-510
April 17, 2016 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
115.006
Cleveland
127.962
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 13
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 10 1/2
200 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-10 1/2); Over

Charlotte @ Miami

Game 511-512
April 17, 2016 @ 5:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
117.958
Miami
124.481
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6 1/2
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 4
200
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-4); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, April 17

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DETROIT (44 - 38) at CLEVELAND (57 - 25) - 4/17/2016, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a division game this season.
CLEVELAND is 31-41 ATS (-14.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) vs. division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 6-6 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 7-5 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (48 - 34) at MIAMI (48 - 34) - 4/17/2016, 5:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
CHARLOTTE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 10-6 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 12-4 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (42 - 40) at SAN ANTONIO (67 - 15) - 4/17/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 949-828 ATS (+38.2 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 43-33 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 484-402 ATS (+41.8 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 74-49 ATS (+20.1 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 169-124 ATS (+32.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 67-53 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-4 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-2 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (44 - 38) at LA CLIPPERS (53 - 29) - 4/17/2016, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 242-296 ATS (-83.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 190-250 ATS (-85.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-5 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Sunday, April 17

Detroit at Cleveland, 3:05 ET
Detroit: 5-14 ATS in road games after playing a road game
Cleveland: 10-2 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more

Charlotte at Miami, 5:35 ET
Charlotte: 14-4 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game
Miami: 25-40 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Memphis at San Antonio, 8:05 ET
Memphis: 4-8 ATS in the 1st game of a playoff series
San Antonio: 29-17 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders

Portland at LA Clippers, 10:35 ET
Portland: 23-14 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread
LA Clippers: 72-109 ATS after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game

NBA

Sunday, April 17

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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit
Cleveland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit

5:30 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 11 games
Miami is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Charlotte

8:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. SAN ANTONIO
Memphis is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
Memphis is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games when playing at home against Memphis

10:30 PM
PORTLAND vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Portland's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Portland's last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 7 games when playing Portland

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Announcement

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/16

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/16

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