Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/11

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Monday, April 11

Good Luck on day #102 of 2016!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Some stuff about the upcoming NFL season.........

-- You can bet the Super Bowl now; NFC is -2, 48.5.

-- 49ers are 50-1 just to win the NFC; Browns are 100-1 to win the AFC.

-- Denver is 12-1 to win Super Bowl; they don't even know who their QB will be.

-- I can't see wagering on the NFL until the schedule comes out- that is going to happen April 21. Then the fun starts.

-- Packers/Steelers are second betting choice in NFC, AFC respectively.

-- Minnesota has been bet down from 20-1 to 16-1 to win the Super Bowl.

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend..........

13) A's 2, Mariners 1 (10)-- We've talked some baseball strategy this week; Seattle's rookie manager Scott Servais took Felix Hernandez out after seven innings, 99 pitches Sunday with a 1-0 lead. Hernandez is a valued commodity- they get a few thousand more fans when he pitches at home, so his health is paramount, but so is winning, and when Marcus Semien homered to tie the game 1-1, eyes had to roll in Seattle.

12) I'm not leaving this subject without saying how freakin' awesome it is that the A's swept their first road series, with two dramatic wins. Tremendous!!!!

11) Texas Rangers brought up their #1 prospect Nomar Mazara and he had three hits in his debut, including a home run-- kids come up thru the ranks faster now than they used to and that makes fantasy baseball keeper leagues more fun.

10) The MLB app for IPhone is excellent; for $20 for the whole year, you can listen to any radio broadcast of any game. Listened to the great Bob Uecker from Milwaukee some this weekend. Best $20 I've spent this year.

9) A's radio guy Ken Korach once gave up a home run to NCIS star Mark Harmon, when the two were Little League rivals in the Los Angeles area. Harmon played QB at UCLA later on, his dad won the Heisman Trophy.

8) Phillies have a choice after this season; pay Ryan Howard $27M to be a slug at 1B again next season, or pay him $10M to go away. When he gets his $10M, I hope he buys his agent a nice parting gift.

7) Memo to ESPN: How about scheduling Sunday night TV games in warm weather cities or in domes in April? MLB had a fun first week and with a chance to promote their product on national TV with little opposition Sunday night, their game in Detroit got rained out. No bueno.

6) Jason deGrom got scratched from his Wednesday start with a lat injury; he isn't on the DL yet, but until this issue is resolved, the Mets are nervous.

5) Iona's basketball team added transfers Sam Cassell Jr (UConn) and Jon Severe (Fordham) this weekend, as they restock for another run at the '17 MAAC ttile.

4) Kids who are talented basketball players make some goofy decisions: Duke needed another guard this past season, so Derryck Thornton Jr reclassified (moved up a year) and played for Duke, when he could've still been in high school.

Thornton didn't play that well, Duke recruited over him, so now the kid is transferring and will have to sit out this coming season at his new school, when he could've stayed in high school this past year and had a normal senior year. Who advises these kids?

3) 25 college football teams had their spring games this weekend; I'm guessing the Paul Finebaum show today will have a lot of college football discussion, even in April.

2) Cubs are 21-2 in Jake Arrieta's last 23 starts.

1) Cubs' home opener is a night game? Is that a first?

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, April 11


Milwaukee @ Orlando

Game 701-702
April 11, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
111.448
Orlando
121.287
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Orlando
by 10
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Orlando
by 5
209
Dunkel Pick:
Orlando
(-5); Over

Atlanta @ Cleveland

Game 703-704
April 11, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
118.280
Cleveland
127.109
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 9
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 6
204 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-6); Over

Charlotte @ Boston

Game 705-706
April 11, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
118.546
Boston
122.647
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 4
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 7
208 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(+7); Under

Washington @ Brooklyn

Game 707-708
April 11, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
113.131
Brooklyn
111.208
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 5 1/2
211
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+5 1/2); Under

LA Lakers @ Oklahoma City

Game 709-710
April 11, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
110.512
Oklahoma City
123.450
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 13
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 16
215
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(+16); Under

Chicago @ New Orleans

Game 711-712
April 11, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
113.223
New Orleans
114.653
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 1 1/2
187
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
N/A

Houston @ Minnesota

Game 713-714
April 11, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
122.911
Minnesota
117.120
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 6
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-3 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Utah

Game 715-716
April 11, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
119.853
Utah
127.934
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 8
198
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
N/A

Sacramento @ Phoenix

Game 717-718
April 11, 2016 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sacramento
117.109
Phoenix
120.606
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Phoenix
by 3 1/2
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Phoenix
by 6 1/2
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(+6 1/2); Over

[Udog]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 11

Hot teams
-- Orlando won four of its last five home games (5-2 last 7HF).
-- Hawks won seven of their last nine games (5-2 last 7AU). Cavaliers won three of last four home games (5-3 last 8HF).
-- Celtics won our of their last five games (4-2 last 6HF).
-- Mavericks won six of their last seven games (6-2 last 8AU). Jazz won five of their last eight games (4-6 last 10HF).

Cold teams
-- Bucks lost three of their last four games (5-3 last 8AU).
-- Hornets lost three of last four road games (1-4 last 5AU).
-- Wizards lost four of last five road games (5-5AF). Brooklyn lost its last eight games overall (1-7 vs spread).
-- Lakers lost nine of their last ten games (0-5 last 5AU). Oklahoma City lost three of last four games (12-5 last 17HF).
-- Bulls lost three of their last five games. New Orleans lost three of its last four games.
-- Rockets lost three of their last four road games (6-9AF). Minnesota won its last three games, all on road (1-4 last 5HU).
-- Sacramento lost three of last five games (4-3-1 last 8AU). Suns lost their last three home games (8-9HF).

Series records
-- Bucks won six of last nine games with Orlando.
-- Cavaliers won their last six games with Atlanta.
-- Celtics won their last four games with Charlotte.
-- Wizards won seven of last nine games with Brooklyn.
-- Lakers lost last seven games (2-5 vs spread) with the Lakers.
-- Pelicans lost their last three games with Chicago.
-- Rockets won their last six games with Minnesota.
-- Mavericks won eight of last ten games with Utah.
-- Kings won four of last five games with Phoenix.

Totals
-- Last three Milwaukee-Orlando games went over the total.
-- Last four Atlanta-Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Charlotte games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Washington-Brooklyn games stayed under.
-- Over is 7-3 in last ten Laker-Thunder games.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Chicago games.
-- Last eight Houston-Minnesota games went over.
-- Six of last seven Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1 in Kings' last five visits to Phoenix.

Back/backs
-- Milwaukee is 12-7 vs spread if it played night before; Orlando is 9-8.
-- Charlotte covered five of last seven if it played night before.
-- Washington is 0-7 vs spread last seven times they played night before. Nets are 2-6 in last eight such games.
-- Lakers are 2-5 vs spread last seven times they played night before.
-- Jazz are 9-7 vs spread if they played the night before.

[Udog]

NBA

Monday, April 11

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. ORLANDO
Milwaukee is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Orlando
Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Orlando is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee

7:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CLEVELAND
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games

7:30 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. BOSTON
Charlotte is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 7 games on the road
Boston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

7:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BROOKLYN
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Brooklyn is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Brooklyn's last 16 games at home

8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. NEW ORLEANS
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Chicago is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago
New Orleans is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games

8:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. MINNESOTA
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Houston's last 23 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games

8:00 PM
LA LAKERS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
LA Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
LA Lakers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Lakers

9:00 PM
DALLAS vs. UTAH
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Dallas's last 25 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Dallas
Utah is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Dallas

10:00 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Sacramento is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Phoenix's last 13 games when playing Sacramento
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento


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[Udog]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, April 11

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MILWAUKEE (33 - 47) at ORLANDO (34 - 46) - 4/11/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 343-413 ATS (-111.3 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 21-35 ATS (-17.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 44-35 ATS (+5.5 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (48 - 32) at CLEVELAND (56 - 24) - 4/11/2016, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 7-6 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 7-6 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (46 - 34) at BOSTON (47 - 33) - 4/11/2016, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 89-74 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 57-43 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 53-39 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 95-129 ATS (-46.9 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
BOSTON is 96-128 ATS (-44.8 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-3 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-3 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (39 - 41) at BROOKLYN (21 - 59) - 4/11/2016, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in April games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 7-2 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-2 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (16 - 64) at OKLAHOMA CITY (54 - 26) - 4/11/2016, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (40 - 40) at NEW ORLEANS (30 - 50) - 4/11/2016, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (39 - 41) at MINNESOTA (28 - 52) - 4/11/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 35-45 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 18-29 ATS (-13.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
HOUSTON is 17-28 ATS (-13.8 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
HOUSTON is 19-28 ATS (-11.8 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
HOUSTON is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 72-87 ATS (-23.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in home games this season.
MINNESOTA is 37-61 ATS (-30.1 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after a division game this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or more this season.
MINNESOTA is 189-235 ATS (-69.5 Units) after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MINNESOTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-5 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 9-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (41 - 39) at UTAH (40 - 40) - 4/11/2016, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-3 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 8-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (32 - 48) at PHOENIX (22 - 58) - 4/11/2016, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 68-87 ATS (-27.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 40-57 ATS (-22.7 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 26-43 ATS (-21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 40-55 ATS (-20.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 42-56 ATS (-19.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 35-45 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 20-29 ATS (-11.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHOENIX is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 6-5 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 7-4 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NBA betting angles for the final week of the regular season

The Oklahoma City Thunder have played five straight games over the total and, in each of those five games, both OKC and its opponents have scored more than 100 points.

The Golden State Warriors killed two birds with one stone on Sunday. By defeating San Antonio, 92-86, the Warriors not only snapped a 33-game regular season losing streak in the Alamo City, but they also equaled the Chicago Bulls' record for 72 wins in a season. All eyes will be on Steph Curry & Co. Wednesday, when they will attempt to win number 73 at home vs. the Grizzlies.

And, of course, there are still two Playoff berths up for grabs in the Western Conference, as well as seeds to be determined, so let's take a look at the upcoming week.

Spread Watch

The San Antonio Spurs lost for the sixth straight game against the spread on Sunday, and they've failed to cover by 6.08 point per game during this stretch - it's also the longest ATS losing streak for the Silver and Black in the past two seasons. The main problem for the Spurs has been on the offensive end, as they've failed to shoot 50% from the floor in any of the six pointspread defeats (after shooting 50+ percent in five of the eight games previous to the ATS losing streak). And their opponents have outshot them in each of the last five games. This week, San Antonio will attempt to right its ship with a home game against the Thunder, on Tuesday, and a road game vs. Dallas, on Wednesday.

The good news for San Antonio - at least for its game vs. the Thunder - is that Oklahoma City will be playing without rest following its Monday tilt with the Lakers. The Spurs are a solid 74-45-1 ATS since February 24, 2010 when playing against an unrested opponent, including 19-5 ATS if the Spurs are also off an upset loss. Gregg Popovich's crew look to be a solid bet in their final home game of the regular season.

Total Watch

The Oklahoma City Thunder have played five straight games over the total and, in each of those five games, both OKC and its opponents have scored more than 100 points. This week, the Thunder will close out their home schedule with a date vs. the Lakers, on Monday. And, then, on Tuesday, the Thunder will travel to San Antonio to play the Spurs, in what could be a preview of a quarterfinals match.

I like the Thunder/Lakers game to sail over the total, as the Lakers gave up 130 points to the Rockets, on Sunday and they surrendered 110 to the Pelicans in the game before that. Los Angeles has gone over in 11 of 16 games when playing without rest. Additionally, these two teams have gone over 14-5-1 in their last 20 meetings.

Schedule Watch

In the final week of the NBA season there are several situations on which I like to wager that relate to the schedule. One such situation involves playing on teams in their final home game of the season, provided they're off momentum-building SU/ATS wins in their previous two games. These teams have been 'money in the bank' in their last game in front of their home faithful, as they've cashed 66 of 102 since 1991. Of course, there's nothing wrong with 64.7%, but we can tighten our angle up considerably by eliminating all games where our opponent is playing with double-revenge. Then, our 66-36 ATS angle zooms to 51-18, 73.9% ATS!

On Tuesday, two teams fit our Last Home Game system: the Pistons (vs. the Heat) and the Clippers (vs. the Grizzlies). Looking ahead to Wednesday, there could be five more plays (depending on Monday's results): the Wizards, Bulls, Timberwolves, Rockets and Suns. Of these games, my favorite would be Detroit, for two reasons. First, Detroit will be playing with revenge from a 107-89 loss at Miami last Tuesday (Detroit is 20-7-2 ATS in its last 29 at home when playing with revenge). And, second, Detroit will be playing its final home game with three days of rest (since 1991, winning teams have cashed 65% in their final home game if they played with at least two more days of rest than their opponent).