Announcement

**Udog** · 04-04-2016, 08:48 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Odds to win the 2016 World Series:

7-1-- Chicago Cubs-- Lot of expecttions for a franchise used to failing.

11-1-- Giants/Mets-- Its an even-numbered year, usually good for the Giants.

13-1-- Dodgers-- Their starting pitching is really shaky after Kershaw.

14-1-- Blue Jays-- Should sore an awful lot of runs.

15-1-- Boston/Houston/Washington

16-1-- Kansas City-- Not lot of respect for the defending champs.

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend......

13) Notes for tonight's national title game:

Since '87, #1-seeds are 6-0 vs #2-seeds in national final (4-2 vs spread, covering last four).

Since '85, six teams won national semifinal games by 18+ points. Underdogs covered five of six national finals those years.

ACC, Big East teams split 12 games this season; favorites were 9-3 vs spread in those games.

12) Of the 20 kids who started in the Final Four Saturday, 10 were seniors, a much higher total than in recent seasons.

11) Bronx Bombers were last in a World Series in 2009; they spent $1,273,295,558 in payroll since then.

Angels haven't won playoff game since 2009; that's $852,409,866 in salary paid out since they last won a playoff game.

10) Jimmy Butler became third Chicago Bull to get a triple double, with 28+ points, 15+ rebounds and 10+ assists. The other two? Scottie Pippen, Reggie Theus.

9) Brett Favre spoke to LSU's football team last week; considering how lame the Tigers have been at developing QBs, he should've been doing some coaching, too.

8) Bob Feller is only major league pitcher ever to toss a no-hitter on Opening Day.

7) Funny how some baseball teams break camp with 13 pitchers, others with 12. Not lot of pinch-hitting moves to make if you only have four bench players, one of whom is your backup catcher, who you generally do not use.

This will make me sound old, but in the early 70's, when Dick Williams managed the A's, they usually went with nine pitchers early in the season-- his starters went deep into games, and relief pitchers pitched more than one inning at a time back then.

6) Dan Straily is a marginal big league starting pitcher; in the last 10 days, he was traded from Houston to San Diego, and then was picked up on waivers by the Reds. Straily makes the big league minimum; he might have a wife and kids- they don't know what direction to head in for Opening Day. Has to be a stressful time for him, but at least with the Reds, he knows they need him, so he'll be in the big leagues all season.

5) Former A's 3rd base coach Mike Gallego was fired last year, used as a scapegoat for Oakland's lousy season; he is now Director of Baseball Development for the rival Angels- he works extensively with the Halos' farm teams.

4) Los Angeles Kings sold out their last 200 home games; thats what happens when you win two championships- more people go to the games.

3) Texas Rangers have a pitcher named Matt Bush who was once the top pick in the big league draft, but later ran into legal problems and spent four years in jail. Imagine him and Ranger OF Josh Hamilton trading horror stories about their experiences?

2) Quite a week for Jim Nantz; does the national championship game tonight, then goes right to Augusta National for The Masters on Thursday.

1) New York Post had its seven baseball writers pick the World Series winner; they came up with seven different teams. Should be an interesting season. Enjoy.

**Udog** · 04-04-2016, 09:07 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, April 4

Villanova @ North Carolina

Game 601-602
April 4, 2016 @ 9:19 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Villanova
82.558
North Carolina
80.248
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 2 1/2
145
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Carolina
by 3
152
Dunkel Pick:
Villanova
(+3); Under

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, April 4

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VILLANOVA (34 - 5) vs. N CAROLINA (33 - 6) - 4/4/2016, 9:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 274-225 ATS (+26.5 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 156-122 ATS (+21.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
VILLANOVA is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
VILLANOVA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
VILLANOVA is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 4

Since 1987, #1 seeds are 6-0 vs #2 seeds in a national final (4-2 against spread, covering last four). Villanova is 7th team since 1985 to win their national semifinal by 18+; in six finals that followed those wins, dogs were 5-1 against spread. North Carolina won its last ten games overall. Villanova won 10 of its last 11 games, losing by hoop to Seton Hall in Big East final. Villanova beat Oklahoma by 44, Miami by 23, Iowa by 19- they've hit their stride at right time. ACC, Big East teams split 12 games this season; favorites were 9-3 vs spread in those games. Carolina beat Villanova 78-71 in '13 first round NCAA game, making 11-21 on arc- Villanova was 4-21 on arc, but that was an 8-9 game in 2013.

NCAAB

Monday, April 4

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Trend Report
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9:19 PM
VILLANOVA vs. NORTH CAROLINA
No trends available
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games

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NCAAB

Monday, April 4

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Villanova vs. North Carolina: NCAA Championship betting preview
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Three weeks of absolute Madness has come down to a battle between familiar foes, the Villanova Wildcats and the North Carolina Tar Heals.

No. 2 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5, 149.5)

Game to be played at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Villanova is fresh off the biggest blowout in Final Four history and aims to carry the momentum into Monday's national championship contest when it faces top-seeded North Carolina at Houston's NRG Stadium. The second-seeded Wildcats rolled to a 95-51 victory over Oklahoma on Saturday and attempt to etch their names alongside the school's famous 1985 title-winning squad that upset Georgetown in the NCAA championship game.

The Tar Heels have posted five straight double-digit victories in the tournament and are vying for the sixth national championship in school history. "We got to go out there and play our game," senior forward Brice Johnson said after Saturday's 83-66 victory over Syracuse. "Those guys are a very good team. They're really hot right now. They held one of the best players in the country (Oklahoma guard Buddy Hield, nine points) to little or nothing." Villanova's stunning 44-point victory boosted its margin of victory in the tourney to 24.2 points and Wildcats coach Jay Wright understands the history in play. "Those guys are really icons on our campus, they really are," Wright said of the 1985 team led by post players Ed Pinckney and Howard Pressley. "That whole team brings that magical underdog feeling, like anything's possible."

TV: 9:19 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: North Carolina opened as two-point favorites immediately following their impressive Final Four victory over Syracuse. The action came in on the Tar Heels hard overnight Saturday and by Sunday morning the books were forced to move the line to -2.5. The total opened at 151 and was bet down to 149.5 by Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “It really does feel like we've got the two best, most complete teams in the tournament facing off for the national title. This was somewhat of a difficult line to create because, save for one game, the wiseguys have been backing Villanova throughout the dance, while the Tar Heels have had heavy support from the squares. Public perception dictates North Carolina being the favorite."

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT VILLANOVA (34-5, 20-17-1 ATS, 20-17-1 O/U): Junior guard Josh Hart was superb against Oklahoma by scoring 23 points on 10-of-12 shooting to fuel the Wildcats' torrid 71.4 percent shooting mark. Hart averages a team-high 15.5 points while teaming with two other stellar outside shooters in junior forward Kris Jenkins (13.6 average, team-high 98 3-pointers) and senior guard Ryan Arcidiacono (12.4 average, 74 3-pointers). Villanova is thin in the frontcourt compared to the Tar Heels and could use a strong performance from senior center Daniel Ochefu, who averages 10.1 points and leads the squad in rebounding (7.6) and blocked shots (55).

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (33-6, 20-18-1 ATS, 21-18 O/U): Johnson is the Tar Heels' top player with averages of 17 points and 10.5 rebounds and three other players average more than 12 points per game. Senior point guard Marcus Paige (12.3) has excelled from long range during the tournament by going 16-of-34 from 3-point range and he holds the school mark of 295 career 3-pointers. Sophomore guard Joel Berry II averages 12.6 points and sophomore forward Justin Jackson averages 12.3 while junior center Kennedy Meeks (9.4 points, 5.9 rebounds) has played well of late by making 16-of-22 shots over the past three contests.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
* Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
* Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Over is 10-2 in Wildcats last 12 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 7-1 in Tar Heels last 8 non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: The action was heavy on UNC early on but the line move to 2.5 seems to have leveled out the percentages with the Tar Heals currently taking 53% of the public opinion. 71% of the picks on the total are coming in on over 149.5.

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**Udog** · 04-04-2016, 10:01 AM

Injuries and motivation are keys to NBA betting in the final weeks of the regular season

Kyrie Irving sprained his ankle in Friday night's overtime win at Atlanta and it's unclear how long he will be sidelined.

When the NBA schedule resumes Tuesday, there will be just nine game days left in the season. I don't think anyone thought, when the season started, that the Warriors would win 73 games. But they've been brilliant the entire season, and I can't see them losing another. Minnesota and Memphis don't have the talent to defeat a motivated Warriors team. The Spurs do, but it's doubtful coach Gregg Popovich will give many minutes to his best players in either of their two remaining games vs. Golden State. Of course, there's still lots of jockeying left in the race for the Playoffs, so let's take a look at the upcoming games.

Spread Watch

The Utah Jazz are in a dogfight with Dallas and Houston for the last two Playoff spots in the Western Conference. Just one game separates the three teams and, barring a complete collapse by the 41-36 Memphis Grizzlies, only two of the Jazz, Mavericks and Rockets will reach the post-season. The Jazz have won and covered 10 of their last 13 games. Their 3 losses: in overtime to Golden State; at Oklahoma City (without rest); and at Chicago. After Sunday's blowout of Phoenix, the Jazz are now 8-0 ATS their last eight games as a favorite. Utah will be favored to win at least four of its last five games (and possibly all five, should Popovich decide to rest the Spurs' best players on Tuesday). I really like the Jazz on Friday against the Clippers. Utah will be playing with revenge from a 5-point home loss to Los Angeles back in December. And the Clips are a dreadful 3-15 ATS their last 18 games against revenge-minded foes.

Total Watch

The New York Knicks have played their last six games 'Under' the total, and are 18-6 'Under' the total since Kurt Rambis succeeded Derek Fisher as head coach. A big reason for this is New York's pace of play. For the season, the Knicks rank in the bottom five in pace (93.4). As their season winds toward a close, the Knicks' offensive production might take a hit. Last week, Carmelo Anthony (21.9 ppg), Robin Lopez (10.2 ppg) and Jose Calderon (7.5 ppg) suggested to Rambis that he decrease their minutes in favor of giving more time to the team's younger players. Rambis played Anthony just 25 minutes in Friday's game vs. Brooklyn, and then gave him the entire night off Sunday vs. Indiana. Rookie Kristaps Porzingis (14.3 ppg) also missed the last two games, and could be held out of the Knicks' final four games. New York's game at Philadelphia, on Friday, looks to be a great candidate to sail 'Under' the total, as the Sixers have gone 'Under' in six of their last seven games.

Injury Watch

Kyrie Irving sprained his ankle in Friday night's overtime win at Atlanta. Irving missed Sunday's game vs. Charlotte (a 112-103 Cleveland victory), and it's unclear how long he will be sidelined. Irving is averaging 19.5 ppg and 4.6 apg, so his production is critical for the Cavaliers as they make their push for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. This season, the Cavaliers are 20-8 straight-up, but 12-15-1 ATS with Irving off the court. Their game Wednesday, at Indiana, looks especially problematic if Irving is out. Cleveland will be playing that game without rest, as it will be in Milwaukee on Tuesday, while Indiana will have had the previous two days off. Moreover, the Pacers will be playing with revenge from three losses suffered to the Cavs earlier this season. All of this spells trouble for Cleveland, as revengers have gone 58-37 ATS in the final five games of a season since 1991, if they played with at least two more days' of rest than their foe.

Schedule Watch

When the NBA regular season enters its final days, most players have their eyes either on the playoffs or the golf course. So, one of the things I try to do at the end of a season is find games where the players might not be fully focused. A good place to start is the schedule. For example, unrested teams that are playing their fourth game in five nights are especially bad, at Game 77 forward, against rested opponents. Since 1991, they've covered just 28 of 85 games! This upcoming Saturday, the New Orleans Pelicans will host the Phoenix Suns and it will be New Orleans' fourth game in five nights, while Phoenix will be rested following its game, at Houston, on Thursday. It's true that the Suns are currently mired in a six-game losing streak (and likely eight games, by the time they reach New Orleans), but my money will still be on the underdog Suns in this contest.

**Udog** · 04-04-2016, 02:28 PM

NCAAB

Monday, April 4

The first of many Bet Share/Action Reports has come across our desk for tonight's NCAA Championship @PinnacleSports

Announcement

Monday's NBA and NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/4

Monday's NBA and NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/4

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