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**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2016, 01:04 AM

Final Four Betting Outlook

he Final Fo-Fo-Fo!

It is a great week for sports fans with the start of baseball, the NBA stretch run, the Final Four and the culmination of the college basketball season next Monday at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas for the national championship. It's clear that it's not the teams the start the season hot, but the ones that get hot when it really matters -- March and April!

Many things happen over the course of a long season. Some teams play great basketball in December and January, only to break down from injuries or run out of steam down the stretch. Iowa started 20-5 until the offense and defense started to struggle in late game situations, dropping six of eight down the stretch (1-7 against the spread run).

A year ago North Carolina started 17-4 but as February started the Tar Heels showed vulnerability, losing 6 of 10. It works the other way, too. A team can have a tough non-conference schedule or need time to work in new pieces, then get hot down the stretch. Two years ago Michigan State overcame injuries in mid-season before getting healthy - - and hot, ripping through the Big 10 tourney, 3-0 both SU and ATS.

It’s important to examine how a team played with overall stats, but also in three different sections: early non-conference play, conference play, then tournament time. Three years ago Miami started 22-3 before the national spotlight and a key injury took a toll, losing in the tourney to Marquette, 71-61.

Kansas and Duke always have the spotlight on them. This season the Jayhawks excellent down the stretch, with a sizzling 10-2 spread run, but Duke has had its troubles with youth and a key injury to its starting center, Amile Jefferson. A year ago Kansas started great, then had some erratic play down the stretch, including losses at Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State.

The previous season the Jayhawks had a late season injury to 7-footer Joel Imbiid (11 ppg, 8 rpg), the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, a huge blow. The Jayhawks may have won the title eight years ago, but a decade ago it was a very different story: The Jayhawks started 20-1, only to go 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread the last nine games. They never made it to the Final Four because of a 64-63 loss to Bucknell as a 13½-point favorite.

Other times an easy early season schedule, youth, bad coaching, untimely injuries, bad luck, poor team chemistry or a combination of these can cut down a potentially great team. Youth and a loss of its best players toppled Florida after winning back-to-back titles and prevented a North Carolina repeat in 2010. It is very easy for sports bettors to look into trends to try and predict the future. Trends can be helpful if there are reasons to support it. For example, from a betting perspective, what stands out about the last 11 Finals Fours?

2015
Michigan State 61
Duke 81 (-5, 139)

Wisconsin 71
Kentucky 64 (-5, 131)

2014
Florida 53 (-6.5, 126)
UConn 63

Wisconsin 73
Kentucky 74 (-2, 139)

2013
Wichita State 68
Louisville 72 (-11, 131)

Syracuse 56
Michigan 61 (-2, 131)

2012
Ohio State 62 (- 3, 136)
Kansas 64

Louisville 61
Kentucky 69 (-8, 136.5)

2011
Butler 70 (-3.5, 133)
VCU 62

Kentucky 55 (-2.5, 131)
UConn 56

2010
Butler 52 (-1.5, 125)
Michigan State 50

West Virginia 57
Duke 78 (-2.5, 130)

2009
Michigan State 82
UConn 73 (-4, 135)

North Carolina 83 (- 7.5, 160)
Villanova 69

2008
Kansas 84
North Carolina 66 (- 3, 158)

UCLA 63
Memphis 78 (-3, 135)

2007
Georgetown 60 (-1, 130)
Ohio State 67

UCLA 66
Florida 76 (- 3, 131)

2006
George Mason 58
Florida 73 (-6, 132)

LSU 45 (-2, 123)
UCLA 59

2005
Louisville 57
Illiniois 72 (-3, 144)

Michigan State 71
North Carolina 87 (-2, 153)

2004
Georgia Tech 67
Oklahoma State 65 (-4, 139)

UConn 79 (-2, 144)
Duke 78

2003
Marquette 61 (-4.5, 153.5)
Kansas 94

Syracuse 95
Texas 84 (-3, 153)

2002
Indiana 73
Oklahoma 64 (-6.5, 134)

Maryland 97
Kansas 88 (-1.5, 168)

What stands out is that it has been the day of the 'dog. The underdog is 16-10-1 against the number, with 13 'dogs winning straight up, including Wisconsin last year taking down mighty Kentucky and UConn two years ago. In addition, the games have gone 12-8 under the last 10 years. You can even make an argument that this would be the right time of the college hoops' season to take a shot with the dog on the money-line. However, this is where one needs patience, because trends can also be a fool's paradise.

If you go back to the previous fourthree Final Fours before that content analysis, 1999-01, we find Duke topping Maryland 95-84, Arizona blowing out Michigan State 80-61, Michigan State beating Wisconsin 53-41, Florida topping North Carolina 71-59, UConn beating Ohio State 64-58 and Duke surviving Michigan State 68-62. What stands out is that the favorite won and covered in five of six, for a hefty 5-1 spread record.

Even looking at totals, a similar pattern emerges. The last 14 years the "over/under" has been equal, 14-14 over/under in the Final Four. The three years before that the "under" prevailed at a 5-1 clip. All of a sudden, those who look solely at trends as the key to the sports betting kingdom are stuck at close to a .500 winning percentage ATS.

For the record, going back the last 20 years, there have been 24 "unders" and 16 "overs" in the Final Four, with 21 'dogs covering while 18 favorites have gotten the money with one push. Again, trends are worth examining, but there needs to be reasons behind them if you're serious about putting down hard earned money on a side. Perhaps the most significant stat that stands out is that 16 of the 21 'dogs that covered ended up winning the game outright, which shows how competitive and relatively evenly matched the games become when teams get this far in the season.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2016, 01:07 AM

Oklahoma vs. Villanova

For the first time since 2009, Villanova (33-5 straight up, 19-17 against the spread) advanced past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament two weeks ago. With that monkey off its back, Jay Wright’s squad proceeded to beat Miami and Kansas to land in Houston for the 2016 Final Four.

Oklahoma, another No. 2 seed like ‘Nova, came out of the West Region by beating top-seeded Oregon this past Saturday at Honda Center in Anaheim. In doing so, Lon Kruger is back in the national semifinals for the first time since taking Florida to the 1994 Final Four in Charlotte.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Villanova as a two-point favorite with a total of 149 points. By Sunday afternoon, the tally had been adjusted all the way down to 146.5. The number for the side hasn’t budged whatsoever, but the ‘under’ was down to 145 by Wednesday.

Villanova is -135 on the money line, leaving the Sooners as +115 underdogs. For first-half wagers, the Wildcats were one-point ‘chalk’ as of Thursday afternoon.

Wright’s team has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including a 64-59 win over Kansas as a two-point underdog in last Saturday’s Elite Eight showdown. The 123 combined points provided an easy winner for ‘under’ supporters as it never threatened the 145-point number.

Ryan Arcidiacono, Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart scored 13 points apiece for the winners, while Daniel Ochefu produced 10 points, eight rebounds, one steal, one blocked shot and two assists without a turnover.

Villanova was nearly perfect at the free-throw line, making 18-of-19 attempts (94.7%). Jenkins converted all six of his shots from the stripe, while Arcidiacono made 6-of-7 at the line.

Villanova forced KU into 16 turnovers to overcome a poor shooting day when it made only 21-of-52 (40.4%) from the field. Mikal Bridges, a freshman forward, came up with five steals and also had six points and three boards.

In the South Region semifinals at KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Villanova destroyed Miami by a 92-69 count as a four-point favorite. The 161 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 140-point tally.

Jenkins and Arcidiacono were sensational against the Hurricanes with 21 points apiece. Jenkins made 8-of-10 shots from the field, including 5-of-6 from 3-point range, and finished with nine rebounds, four assists, one steal and one blocked shot.

Arcidiacono, the senior point guard, drained 4-of-7 from downtown and handed out four assists compared to one turnover. In fact, Arcidiacono has committed only two turnovers in his last 97 minutes of playing time.

Ochefu and Hart added 17 and 14 points, respectively, against UM. The Wildcats finished the night shooting 62.7 percent from the field, 66.7 percent from behind the 3-point line (10-of-15) and 94.7 percent from the free-throw line (18-of-19). They also beat the ‘Canes on the boards by a 26-16 margin.

Villanova owns a 7-6 spread record in 13 games as a single-digit favorite.

Oklahoma (29-7 SU, 14-20 ATS) advanced to its fifth Final Four in program history and its first since 2002 by downing Oregon 80-68 as a one-point underdog. The 148 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 153-point total.

Buddy Hield erupted for 37 points on 8-of-13 shooting from behind the arc. Jordan Woodard added 13 points, while Isaiah Cousins produced 11 points, seven assists, five rebounds and one steal.

OU did an outstanding job of defending the 3-point line, forcing the Ducks to make only 4-of-21 launches form downtown. The Sooners won the rebounding battle by a 33-29 margin.

Oklahoma had failed to cover the spread in seven straight games until facing Texas A&M in the West Region semifinals. After the Aggies raced out to an early six-point lead, Kruger’s bunch responded with a 34-9 run to take a 19-point lead into halftime.

OU would finish the job in the second half, capturing a 77-63 victory as a 2.5-point ‘chalk.’ Woodard buried 5-of-6 treys in a game-high 22-point effort. He also dished out five assists, grabbed three rebounds and had two steals.

Hield produced 17 points, 10 rebounds and three assists, while Ryan Spangler had 10 points and eight boards.

Hield, the two-time Big 12 Player of the Year, is averaging 25.4 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. The Bahamian product is shooting at career-high clips from the field (50.4%), 3-point land (46.5%) and the free-throw line (88.0%).

When these schools met in Honolulu on Dec. 7, Oklahoma coasted to a 78-55 win as a five-point underdog. Cousins was the catalyst for the Sooners, producing 19 points, 10 assists, six rebounds and one steal while committing just a pair of turnovers. Hield hit 4-of-9 from 3-point range in an 18-point effort.

Villanova couldn’t buy a bucket from downtown against the Sooners, shooting an abysmal 4-of-32 (12.5%) from long distance. Arcidiacono, Hart and Phil Booth scored 10 points apiece in the losing effort.

There will plenty of talk about depth perception at this event that’ll be played in the Texans’ football stadium. At this same venue for three games of the South Region semifinals and finals last year, the four teams combined to make only 26.7 percent of 3-point attempts

This could prove problematic for the Sooners, who rank second in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (42.8%).

Unlike Oklahoma, Villanova doesn’t lean too much on 3-point shooting, ranking No. 139 in the country with a 35.4 percentage. The Wildcats have been great at the line throughout the Tournament as noted above. They rank second in the nation in FT percentage (78.4%). Also, ‘Nova ranks 15th in the country in scoring defense, limiting foes to a 63.6 PPG average.

OU has been an underdog seven times this year, posting a 5-2 spread record with four outright wins.

The ‘over’ has hit at a 10-3 clip for the Wildcats in their last 13 games to improve to 19-17-1 overall.

The ‘under’ is on a lucrative 12-2 roll in OU’s last 14 games. The Sooners have seen the ‘under’ go 19-15 overall.

Tip-off is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

Oklahoma vs. Villanova
March 31, 2016
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
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For the first time since 2009, Villanova (33-5 straight up, 19-17 against the spread) advanced past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament two weeks ago. With that monkey off its back, Jay Wright’s squad proceeded to beat Miami and Kansas to land in Houston for the 2016 Final Four.

Oklahoma, another No. 2 seed like ‘Nova, came out of the West Region by beating top-seeded Oregon this past Saturday at Honda Center in Anaheim. In doing so, Lon Kruger is back in the national semifinals for the first time since taking Florida to the 1994 Final Four in Charlotte.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Villanova as a two-point favorite with a total of 149 points. By Sunday afternoon, the tally had been adjusted all the way down to 146.5. The number for the side hasn’t budged whatsoever, but the ‘under’ was down to 145 by Wednesday.

Villanova is -135 on the money line, leaving the Sooners as +115 underdogs. For first-half wagers, the Wildcats were one-point ‘chalk’ as of Thursday afternoon.

Wright’s team has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including a 64-59 win over Kansas as a two-point underdog in last Saturday’s Elite Eight showdown. The 123 combined points provided an easy winner for ‘under’ supporters as it never threatened the 145-point number.

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Ryan Arcidiacono, Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart scored 13 points apiece for the winners, while Daniel Ochefu produced 10 points, eight rebounds, one steal, one blocked shot and two assists without a turnover.

Villanova was nearly perfect at the free-throw line, making 18-of-19 attempts (94.7%). Jenkins converted all six of his shots from the stripe, while Arcidiacono made 6-of-7 at the line.

Villanova forced KU into 16 turnovers to overcome a poor shooting day when it made only 21-of-52 (40.4%) from the field. Mikal Bridges, a freshman forward, came up with five steals and also had six points and three boards.

In the South Region semifinals at KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Villanova destroyed Miami by a 92-69 count as a four-point favorite. The 161 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 140-point tally.

Jenkins and Arcidiacono were sensational against the Hurricanes with 21 points apiece. Jenkins made 8-of-10 shots from the field, including 5-of-6 from 3-point range, and finished with nine rebounds, four assists, one steal and one blocked shot.

Arcidiacono, the senior point guard, drained 4-of-7 from downtown and handed out four assists compared to one turnover. In fact, Arcidiacono has committed only two turnovers in his last 97 minutes of playing time.

Ochefu and Hart added 17 and 14 points, respectively, against UM. The Wildcats finished the night shooting 62.7 percent from the field, 66.7 percent from behind the 3-point line (10-of-15) and 94.7 percent from the free-throw line (18-of-19). They also beat the ‘Canes on the boards by a 26-16 margin.

Villanova owns a 7-6 spread record in 13 games as a single-digit favorite.

Oklahoma (29-7 SU, 14-20 ATS) advanced to its fifth Final Four in program history and its first since 2002 by downing Oregon 80-68 as a one-point underdog. The 148 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 153-point total.

Buddy Hield erupted for 37 points on 8-of-13 shooting from behind the arc. Jordan Woodard added 13 points, while Isaiah Cousins produced 11 points, seven assists, five rebounds and one steal.

OU did an outstanding job of defending the 3-point line, forcing the Ducks to make only 4-of-21 launches form downtown. The Sooners won the rebounding battle by a 33-29 margin.

Oklahoma had failed to cover the spread in seven straight games until facing Texas A&M in the West Region semifinals. After the Aggies raced out to an early six-point lead, Kruger’s bunch responded with a 34-9 run to take a 19-point lead into halftime.

OU would finish the job in the second half, capturing a 77-63 victory as a 2.5-point ‘chalk.’ Woodard buried 5-of-6 treys in a game-high 22-point effort. He also dished out five assists, grabbed three rebounds and had two steals.

Hield produced 17 points, 10 rebounds and three assists, while Ryan Spangler had 10 points and eight boards.

Hield, the two-time Big 12 Player of the Year, is averaging 25.4 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. The Bahamian product is shooting at career-high clips from the field (50.4%), 3-point land (46.5%) and the free-throw line (88.0%).

When these schools met in Honolulu on Dec. 7, Oklahoma coasted to a 78-55 win as a five-point underdog. Cousins was the catalyst for the Sooners, producing 19 points, 10 assists, six rebounds and one steal while committing just a pair of turnovers. Hield hit 4-of-9 from 3-point range in an 18-point effort.

Villanova couldn’t buy a bucket from downtown against the Sooners, shooting an abysmal 4-of-32 (12.5%) from long distance. Arcidiacono, Hart and Phil Booth scored 10 points apiece in the losing effort.

There will plenty of talk about depth perception at this event that’ll be played in the Texans’ football stadium. At this same venue for three games of the South Region semifinals and finals last year, the four teams combined to make only 26.7 percent of 3-point attempts

This could prove problematic for the Sooners, who rank second in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (42.8%).

Unlike Oklahoma, Villanova doesn’t lean too much on 3-point shooting, ranking No. 139 in the country with a 35.4 percentage. The Wildcats have been great at the line throughout the Tournament as noted above. They rank second in the nation in FT percentage (78.4%). Also, ‘Nova ranks 15th in the country in scoring defense, limiting foes to a 63.6 PPG average.

OU has been an underdog seven times this year, posting a 5-2 spread record with four outright wins.

The ‘over’ has hit at a 10-3 clip for the Wildcats in their last 13 games to improve to 19-17-1 overall.

The ‘under’ is on a lucrative 12-2 roll in OU’s last 14 games. The Sooners have seen the ‘under’ go 19-15 overall.

Tip-off is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The updated futures at Sportsbook.ag look like this: North Carolina -110, Villanova +260, Oklahoma +350 and Syracuse 10/1.

-- Hield’s odds to win Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four are +350 (risk $100 to win $350). Hart and Arcidiacono have 5/1 and 8/1 odds, respectively.

-- Oklahoma is seeking its first national title in men’s basketball. The Sooners made it to the finals in 1947 and 1988, only to come up short. Billy Tubbs’s ’88 squad featured Mookie Blaylock and Stacey King but went down against a Kansas team coached by Larry Brown. This KU squad was dubbed “Danny [Manning] and the Miracles.”

-- Villanova is looking for its first national title since 1985 when it shocked the world by knocking off Georgetown in the finals at Rupp Arena in Lexington.

-- Chris Beard is the new head coach at UNLV after leading Arkansas Little Rock to a 30-5 record and a Round of 64 win over Purdue in his lone season as a Division-I coach. Beard served on Bobby Knight’s staff at Texas Tech. Knight, who isn’t doing interviews these days, agreed to chat with Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal about Beard earlier this week. The former Indiana coach who won three national titles for Hoosiers ripped off this gem to Youmans, “You have a lot of experts in Las Vegas and they would probably have some hesitation if you hired Jesus Christ or Red Auerbach at the same time.” Knight remains in my Top Five of dudes I’d like to drink 10-15 Budweisers with, including Charles Barkley, Bill Raftery, Larry Bird either of the Van Gundy Brothers. (Steve Spurrier doesn’t make the cut because he can’t improve his stock in my eyes; he can only hurt it and I don’t ever want that to happen.)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2016, 01:14 AM

'Nova out for different outcome vs Sooners

HOUSTON (AP) Villanova was blown out by Oklahoma in the first meeting with the Sooners this season.

That doesn't worry the Wildcats as they prepare for a rematch in the national semifinals on Saturday. They're looking forward to another crack at the Sooners because of how much they've grown since that 78-55 loss on Dec. 7.

The difference between then and now is so stark that even Oklahoma star Buddy Hield doesn't think that game will have any bearing on Saturday's outcome.

''It's not a benefit because they're a completely different team right now,'' he said. ''That was back in December and they had conference play and everything. So they're a completely different team, better defensively. So I'm just looking forward to it.''

As terrible as their performance was in that game in Hawaii, watching film of it didn't upset the Wildcats.

''We saw how bad we looked and it's just night and day watching that game and then watching the Kansas game that we had,'' Villanova's Josh Hart said referring to the regional final. ''It's totally different. Obviously we learned from that game.''

The major difference in that contest was that Oklahoma made 14 3-pointers and Villanova was just 4 of 32 from long-range.

''There's not much relationship to the game in Hawaii,'' Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger said. ''They didn't make shots, we did. That's kind of it. I was watching film. I was hoping to see a bigger difference than that, but it wasn't anything bigger than that. They just didn't shoot the ball very well.''

Though the teams have both evolved since the first meeting, Villanova learned an important lesson in that game. They held Hield to 17 points, but were done in by four other players scoring in double figures.

''We can't be too focused on stopping Buddy Hield,'' Hart said. ''We've got to focus on stopping Oklahoma.''

Villanova coach Jay Wright is glad that his team has seen Hield before and knows that while he's a good player, he isn't some mythical figure who can't be slowed down. Hield is averaging 29.2 points a game in the tournament.

''If you've just watched the NCAA Tournament ... if you only followed Buddy Hield or Oklahoma, you'd just think this guy is Superman,'' Wright said. ''The other thing you would think is that the other guys aren't as good. We played him. He scored 17. We know how good he is, but we've been on the floor with him. But we also know how good all the other guys are because the other guys hurt us in that game.''

Kruger is impressed with how Villanova has developed since he first saw the team in December. He's a big fan of the Wildcats' execution and discipline and the selflessness they show on offense. Villanova has four players who average more than 10 points a game and a fifth is scoring 9.8.

''They appear to be really committed and bought in,'' Kruger said. ''I think along with Kansas, maybe Oregon, the last six weeks of the season are probably playing better than anyone else in the country. Maybe North Carolina in that group, as well. But, yeah, just love his team. He's got them playing the way coaches all want their teams to play.''

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2016, 01:16 AM

Final 4 festivities kick off in Houston

HOUSTON (AP) The last teams in the NCAA Tournament have arrived and it's time to get ready for the Final Four.

Villanova, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Syracuse began preparations in Houston Thursday for two semifinal games on Saturday that will determine the teams that will play for the title.

Coaches and players are speaking to reporters at NRG Stadium, the home of the NFL's Houston Texans. Like many recent Final Fours, players are having to contend with shooting in a football stadium, where the small floor and wide circumference of the grandstands can play tricks on depth perception.

Oklahoma plays Villanova in the first semifinal Saturday night. They'll be followed by North Carolina against Syracuse.

The winners play Monday night for the title.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2016, 01:37 PM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Odds to win the home run title this baseball season........

7-1-- Giancarlo Stanton-- Someone's fantasy team needs him healthy this year.

15-2-- Chris Davis-- Was smart re-signing with Orioles; loves Camden Yards.

17-2-- Jose Abreu-- Has lot more protection in lineup this season.

12-1- Bryce Harper-- Has a new manager this year, Dusty Baker.

13-1-- JD Martinez-- Hit three homers that don't count yesterday.

18-1-- Nolan Arenado-- How many taters would Stanton hit in Denver?

**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Happy April Fools' Day........

13) On Selection Sunday, someone in NCAA headquarters confused Southern Cal with South Carolina (both USC) and texted South Carolina that they had made the NCAA tournament, when in fact they had not. No bueno. Wouldn't have wanted to be the person who had to explain that miscue to the Gamecocks.

12) Oklahoma plays Villanova Saturday, but on Tuesday, they'll be down a couple of assistant coaches. Steve Henson goes to Tex-San Antonio, Lew Hill to Rio Grande Valley in the Southland Conference. Thats the price of winning.

11) The Final Four is at NRG Stadium in Houston, a dome where the Texans play their NFL games. In the last 13 basketball games played there, favorites are 11-2 vs the spread, under is 8-4-1.

10) Over last 30 years, teams with an 8-seed or worse are 1-3-1 vs spread in national semifinal games, when not playing against each other.

9) Over last 30 years, when teams from same conference meet in national semifinals, the better team won/covered three of the four games.

8) George Washington 76, Valparaiso 60-- GW wins the NIT, but they shouldn't get too happy; the coach who won last year's NIT has already been fired. Stanford fired Johnny Dawkins, who has already resurfaced at Central Florida.

Switching over to baseball..........
7) Travis Shaw beats out Pablo Sandoval as 3B in Boston. Sandoval showed up to spring training more out of shape than usual, and now he will sit.

6) As far as I know, Mike Leake (#8), Marcus Stroman (#6) are only major league starting pitchers with a single digit uniform number. Reliever Adam Ottavino also wears 0 for the Rockies.

5) They put 11,025 fans in Cashman Field in Las Vegas last night for a Mets-Cubs game, listed as a sellout. They have another exhibition game there this afternoon.

4) Bronx TV analyst David Cone joined Royals analyst Rex Hudler in blaming Ruben Tejada for the broken leg Tejada incurred when Chase Utley slid hard into second base in LY's playoffs. Angels' analyst Mark Gubicza took the opposite viewpoint, so apparently the slide is kid of a gray area, even amongst ex-players.

3) Bronx reliever Andrew Miller suffered a chip fracture in his right (non-throwing) wrist when he got hit by a line drive Thursday. With Aroldis Chapman suspended for the first 30 games, Bronx doesn't need Miller on the DL in April.

2) Jockey Calvin Borel retired this week, with 5,136 wins, a great career.

1) I felt so old Thursday; I'm getting my hair buzzed, doesn't take too long, but while I'm there, an ad for comedian Steven Wright's appearance in Albany comes on the radio. Neither of the girls working in the hair salon know who he is. Wright is a brilliant comedian with a deadpan delivery- he also won an Oscar as a film producer; he is a brilliant guy, very funny, but at age 60, he's not well known by younger people. Oy.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2016, 01:40 PM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, April 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MOREHEAD ST (23 - 13) at NEVADA (23 - 14) - 4/1/2016, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEVADA is 2-1 against the spread versus MOREHEAD ST over the last 3 seasons
MOREHEAD ST is 2-1 straight up against NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Friday, April 1

Morehead State at Nevada, 9:00 ET
Morehead St: 11-2 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
Nevada: 3-11 ATS when playing only their 3rd game in a week

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, April 1

CBI
Best-of-3 series is 1-1; game 3 is Friday night in Reno
This is decisive game of best-of-3 series. Nevada won eight of last nine home games, 12 of its 17 non-league games; they were 27-42 on the line in Game 2, after being outscored 20-18 on line in Game 1. Morehead St won 10 of last 12 D-I games, are more experienced, deeper team, are 4-1 in last five true road games-- they went 1-16 on arc in Game 2 in a rough game with couple of near-scuffles. Eagles are 5-32 from arc in first two series games- they'll need to foul less in order to win this game.

NCAAB

Friday, April 1

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
MOREHEAD STATE vs. NEVADA
Morehead State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Nevada's last 12 games at home
Nevada is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2016, 01:44 PM

CBB MONEYLINE

CBB > (521) MOREHEAD ST@ (522) NEVADA | 2016-04-01 21:00:00 - 2016-04-01 21:00:00
Play ON NEVADA using money line in All games as a favorite
The record is 15 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+12.6 units)

CBB > (521) MOREHEAD ST@ (522) NEVADA | 2016-04-01 21:00:00 - 2016-04-01 21:00:00
Play ON NEVADA using money line in All games in all home games
The record is 13 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+10.65 units)

-------------------

CBB FIRST HALF

CBB > (521) MOREHEAD ST@ (522) NEVADA | 2016-04-01 21:00:00 - 2016-04-01 21:00:00
Play AGAINST MOREHEAD ST ?>in the first halfin All games revenging a road loss vs opponent
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the this season (-7.7 units)

CBB > (521) MOREHEAD ST@ (522) NEVADA | 2016-04-01 21:00:00 - 2016-04-01 21:00:00
Play AGAINST NEVADA ?>in the first halfin All games in non-conference games
The record is 9 Wins and 26 Losses for the last three seasons (-19.6 units)

----------------

CBB TOTALS

CBB > (521) MOREHEAD ST@ (522) NEVADA | 2016-04-01 21:00:00 - 2016-04-01 21:00:00
Play UNDER NEVADA on the totalin Home games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 4 Overs and 16 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.6 units)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2016, 01:55 PM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Friday, April 1

Morehead State @ Nevada

Game 521-522
April 1, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Morehead State
55.350
Nevada
57.789
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nevada
by 2 1/2
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nevada
by 4 1/2
145
Dunkel Pick:
Morehead State
(+4 1/2); Over

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2016, 07:04 PM

FRIDAY, APRIL 1

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MORE at NEV 09:00 PM

NEV -3.0

U 145.5

**StarDust Bum** · 04-02-2016, 03:37 PM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Odds to win next week's Masters golf tournament........

13-2-- Jason Day- Won six of last 13 tournaments he played in.

8-1-- Jordan Spieth/Rory McIlroy

10-1-- Bubba Watson-- Lefties seem to do well at Augusta National.

12-1-- Adam Scott

15-1-- Phil Mickelson/Rickie Fowler

20-1- Dustin Johnson

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here......

13) Quote of the Day, part 2, from Rush Limbaugh, which pretty much sums up what a lot of people are thinking about politics these days:

"I don't know what to do here today ....... I mean, if you want a campaign slogan for 2016, it would be, 'Everybody sucks.'"

12) Bernie Sanders raised $108.8M in the first three months of 2016; this guy might still be campaigning after the election is over. A 74-year old Socialist raised $109M in three months-- what an indictment of every other person in this Presidential race.

11) Was talking to a friend of mine the other day who said, "It doesn't matter. They're all liars." Sad but true sentiment, thats how we view our nation's "leaders".

10) CNBC's Andrea Mitchell did some fact-checking: Hillary Clinton banked $300M in contributions from oil/gas companies, Sanders, Sanders $53M.

On to stuff I like better and know more about.......
9) Memphis Grizzlies set an NBA record by using 28 players this year; funny thing is, they're probably going to make the playoffs anyway- you'd figure a team with that much turnover would be falling apart. Nice coaching job by Dave Joerger.

8) The average fan would be surprised by how little yelling/shouting goes on in locker rooms before basketball games and at halftime. Halftime is short; adjustments are made, guys get hydrated, there is only so much yelling a coach can do over the course of a long season before the players stop listening.

7) People bet on spring training games, but in some games, an AL team might use the DH, while the NL team in same game has its pitchers hit. Small advantage there. If a team doesn't care whether it wins/loses, I'd be hesitant to bet on that game.

6) Basketball coaching carousel: Jim Engles bolts from NJIT to Columbia. Detroit let Ray McCallum go; Titans hadn't been same since Ray McCallum Jr played there. Portland named former Pistons coach Terry Porter its new head coach.

5) Texas Longhorns turned down a chance for another trip to China next fall, in order to play in a tournament at Barclays Center in Brooklyn with Northwestern, Notre Dame and Colorado. Pretty good tournament.

4) If you bring your cellphone into The Masters at Augusta National, you're likely to get tossed and then banned for life from the golf course. Banned for life seems a bit harsh, but they're pretty serious about having no phones on the course.

3) Maryland's football team lost defensive coordinator Scott Shafer, who resigned for personal reasons before he ever coached a game for the Terps. Shafer was the head coach at Syracuse the last three seasons.

2) Nevada 85, Morehead State 82 OT-- wins CBI championship. Not too fond of the best-of-3 finals format, but these teams played really good games.

1) Knicks 105, Nets 91-- Nice of the NBA to have the Lopez brothers play each other on April 1, which happens to be the twins' birthday.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-02-2016, 03:41 PM

Essential betting stats and trends for the Final Four and NCAA Championship

It’s onward to Houston for the Final Four games. To put the wraps on the 2016 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to consider as our Fab Four heads off to H-Town this weekend.

*Note: all stats are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

NCAA Final Four Round notes

• No. 1 Seed favorites of 4-points or greater are 1-4 ATS since 2012. North Carolina is the lone team remaining that fit this situation.
• No. 2 Seed favorites are 3-7 ATS. Villanova is favored in the no. 2 vs. no. 2 matchup against Oklahoma.
• No. 8 or lower seeds are 2-4-1 ATS. Syracuse, obviously, fits into this trend.
• Favorites off a win of 14 or more points are 3-7 ATS. North Carolina draws this scenario after beating Notre Dame by 14 points in the Elite 8.
• Favorites of four points or greater who scored 80 or more points in the Elite 8 round are 7-14 ATS. North Carolina fits this trend.
• Teams who are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games are 11-15-2 ATS. Both Syracuse and Villanova have covered their last four games.
• Teams with revenge are 4-11 ATS. Both Syracuse and Villanova are in revenge spots after losing to their Final Four opponents earlier in the season.
• Teams off back-to-back double-digit wins are 8-15 ATS. North Carolina and Oklahoma both fit this spot.
• ACC favorites of more than 5 points are 1-4 ATS. Oklahoma is the lone Final Four team to fit this scenario.
• Big East favorites are 1-3 ATS. Villanova fits this trend very nicely.

NCAA Championship Game notes

• No. 1 Seed favorites are 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS.
• No. 2 Seeds are 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS (0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS vs. no. 1 seeds).
• No. 5 or worse seeds are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS.
• Favorites of five points or less are 12-3 SU and ATS.
• Teams with a win percentage of .850 or greater are 12-6 SU and ATS since 1998.
• Teams with a win percentage of .810 or less are 3-7 SU and ATS since 2000.
• Favorites who scored 80 or more points in the Final Four round are 5-1 ATS.
• Dogs who allow 60 or more points in the Final Four round are 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS.
• Dogs of three points or more off a SU dog win are 1-6 ATS since 1998.
• ACC teams are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS versus no. 2 or lower seeds.
• Big East teams are 6-1 SU and ATS.
• Big 12 teams are 1-3 SU and ATS.

Coach Me Up

North Carolina’s Roy Williams is:

68-22 SU and 50-39-1 ATS in NCAA tournament.
191-79 SU and 132-131-7 ATS vs. ACC.
21-5 SU and 16-10 ATS vs. Big East.
112-32 SU and 72-71-1 ATS vs. Big 12.
4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS vs. Boeheim.
3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS vs. Kruger.
3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. Wright.

Oklahoma’s Lon Kruger is:

16-12 SU and 13-15 ATS in NCAA tournament.
9-10 SU and 12-7 ATS vs. ACC.
14-7 SU and 12-7 ATS vs. Big East.
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Boeheim.
1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS vs. Williams.
1-0 SU and 1-0 ATS vs. Wright.

Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim is:

39-18 SU and 32-23-2 ATS in NCAA tournament.
47-29 SU and 34-39-3 ATS vs. ACC.
12-6 SU and 12-6 ATS vs. Big 12.
294-164 SU and 221-231-5 ATS vs. Big East.
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Kruger.
4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS vs. Williams.
9-12 SU and 9-12 ATS vs. Wright.

Villanova’s Jay Wright is:

18-10 SU and 14-14 ATS in NCAA tournament.
4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS vs. ACC.
2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS vs. Big East.
3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS vs. Big 12.
12-9 SU and 12-9 ATS vs. Boeheim.
0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS vs. Kruger.
0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS vs. Williams.

There you have it, trends and notes for teams and coaches involved in the NCAA Tournament Final Four in games played over the last 25 years.

I hope you’ve enjoyed the tournament as much as I have. I’ll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends at that time. Until then enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

NRG Stadium has been kind to betting favorites. In 10 games since 2010, teams giving the points are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. UNC-9.5, Nova -2.

College basketball games inside NRG Stadium producing a 2-8 Over/Under record since 2010 – an 80% winning rate for the Under.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-02-2016, 03:45 PM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, April 2

Villanova @ Oklahoma

Game 811-812
April 2, 2016 @ 6:09 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Villanova
78.443
Oklahoma
73.592
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 5
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 2
145 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Villanova
(-2); Over

Syracuse @ North Carolina

Game 813-814
April 2, 2016 @ 8:49 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Syracuse
67.713
North Carolina
79.230
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Carolina
by 11 1/2
139
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Carolina
by 9
145 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
North Carolina
(-9); Under

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VILLANOVA (33 - 5) vs. OKLAHOMA (29 - 7) - 4/2/2016, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VILLANOVA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in tournament semi-final games since 1997.
VILLANOVA is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 42-26 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
VILLANOVA is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 10-18 ATS (-9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OKLAHOMA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 1-0 against the spread versus VILLANOVA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 1-0 straight up against VILLANOVA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SYRACUSE (23 - 13) vs. N CAROLINA (32 - 6) - 4/2/2016, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 273-225 ATS (+25.5 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
SYRACUSE is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
SYRACUSE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
SYRACUSE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 2-1 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Saturday, April 2

Villanova at Oklahoma, 6:05 ET
Villanova: 12-4 ATS in non-conference games
Oklahoma: 4-11 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5

Syracuse at North Carolina, 8:45 ET
Syracuse: 6-0 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick
N Carolina: 13-26 ATS in road games after 8 or more consecutive wins

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 2

Since 1987, #8 or lower seeds are 1-3-1 vs spread in national semis when not facing each other. North Carolina swept Syracuse this season, 84-73 in Carrier Dome Jan 9 (trailed by 6 with 8:28 left, UNC made 64.4% of 2-pointers, 3-16 on arc), 75-70 at home Feb 29 (UNC was up 4 at half, made 6 of 25 on arc). Tar Heels made 11-20 on arc vs Indiana, but in last four games other than that one, were at 33.3% or less. Syracuse allowed 55.8 ppg in four tourney wins; their last three losses were by 5 or less points. Carolina won its last nine games overall. Since '87, when teams from same conference play in national semis, the favorite is 3-1

Last five years, underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in national semifinal games. Villanova's worst game of year was 78-55 loss to Oklahoma Dec 7th on Pearl Harbor- game was 32-26 at half. Sooners made 14-26 on arc while Wildcats were 4-32 in game they never led. Villanova won nine of its last ten games, losing by hoop to Seton Hall in Big East final- they've got the #13 eFG% in country. Oklahoma has four kids who've started together for 100+ games; Sooners won seven of last eight games, losing by hoop to West Virginia in Big X semis. Big East teams are 2-2 vs Big X teams this season- Oklahoma had both Big X wins, also beating Creighton.

NCAAB

Saturday, April 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:09 PM
OKLAHOMA vs. VILLANOVA
No trends available
Villanova is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Villanova's last 13 games

8:49 PM
SYRACUSE vs. NORTH CAROLINA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of North Carolina's last 21 games
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

**StarDust Bum** · 04-02-2016, 03:47 PM

NCAAB

Saturday, April 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Villanova vs. Oklahoma: Final Four betting preview
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Can Buddy Hield and his 29.3 ppg in the tourney carry Oklahoma past Villanova and to the National Championship game?

No. 2 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners (+2, 144.5)

Game to be played at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Buddy Hield has turned the NCAA Tournament into a personal highlight reel and the stage gets bigger Saturday when he leads Oklahoma into their first Final Four game in 14 years against Villanova in Houston. The Sooners' senior scored 37 points in the Elite Eight victory over Oregon last weekend, is averaging 29.3 on 56.7 percent shooting in the tournament and presents a skill set that will dominate the Wildcats' pregame preparations.

"The way people are guarding Buddy and getting into him, it impacts everything," Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger told the media. "It helps create opportunities going at the goal and maybe when two guys are on him one guy might roll and we can get a lob. ... So how defenses cover Buddy effects everyone." While Hield is the unquestioned star of the Final Four, Villanova can come at you in waves with four players averaging double figures in the tournament. Three of them - Ryan Arcidiacono, Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins - scored 13 points apiece in the 64-59 victory over Kansas in the South Region final last Saturday which pushed the Wildcats into the Final Four for the fifth time in school history and the second time under coach Jay Wright, who also led his 2009 team to the national semifinals. These teams met Dec. 7 in Hawaii and the Sooners rolled 78-55 behind 19 points from Isaiah Cousins and 18 from Hield.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

ODDS TO WIN NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP:

Villanova - Open 20/1, Current 5/2
Oklahoma - Open 30/1, Current 7/2

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma opened as 1-point pups versus Villanova and the line quickly moved in the direction Wildcats. Villanova move to -1.5, then to -2, before peaking at -2.5. Since then some action has come back on the Sooners moving the line to the current number of Villanova -2. Meanwhile, the total has plummeted down since opening at 150, coming all the down to 144.5. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "It will be interesting to see how playing in a big football arena will affect the three-point shooting of both teams, especially since both squads rely heavily on the outside shot and will now be dealing with unusual sight lines. Both teams average 24 three-point attempts per game which equates to 42 percent of Villanova's total field goal attempts and 40 percent of Oklahoma's total shot attempts per game. Extreme variance in three-point shooting accounted for Oklahoma's easy 23-point win on December 7th as a 5-point underdog when they faced Villanova in Hawaii. The Sooners shot 14-for-26 (54%) from beyond the arc, while the Wildcats were just 4-for-32 (13%). Villanova actually held a 52 percent to 41 percent shooting edge from two-point range in that game."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We haven’t had to move off our number of Villanova -2 as we are seeing great two way action on both sides of the line with just over 50 percent on Villanova to cover the 2-point spread against Oklahoma. The 145.5 point total has just over 60 percent of the action on the Over."

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT VILLANOVA (33-5, 19-17-1 ATS, 19-17-1 O/U): Coach Jay Wright knows his team was already manhandled by the Sooners and is well aware of the fact that Houston is not too far from the Oklahoma campus, but he saw his team knock off the favored Jayhawks last week and said he feels he has another positive development on his side. "When we played Oklahoma earlier this season, Jalen (Brunson) was starting for the first time, Kris and Josh were starting for the first time," Wright told reporters earlier this week. "We were an inexperienced team and it really showed, so I think we are a much more experienced team now." That trio combined to go 1-of-16 from 3-point range against Oklahoma, but have posted a collective 42.6 percent mark from beyond the arc in the tournament.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (29-7, 14-20 ATS, 15-19 O/U): Guard Jordan Woodard has been the best of the supporting cast for Hield by averaging 16.8 points, while Cousins has struggled of late with a total of 13 points on 5-of-21 shooting over the last two games. Hield hit 8-of-13 3-pointers versus Oregon and has taken at least 10 triples in eight of his last 14 contests. The Wildcats will need to be on their game early as the Sooners have outscored their four tournament opponents by an average of 14.3 points in the first half.

TRENDS:

* Villanova is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.
* Oklahoma is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-1 in Villanova's last nine games versus Big 12 opponents.
* Under is 12-2 in Oklahoma's last 14 games overall.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are giving the slight edge to Villanova in this mathchup of No. 2 seeds, with 52 percent of wagers on the Wildcats. As for the total, 68 percent of wagers are on the over.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-02-2016, 03:48 PM

NCAAB

Saturday, April 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Syracuse vs. North Carolina: Final Four betting preview
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

While most people think UNC will win their Final Four matchup with Syracuse, the question for bettors is will they cover the big 9-pt spread?

No. 10 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-9, 144.5)

Game to be played at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

North Carolina makes its record 19th trip to the Final Four and must beat ACC rival Syracuse for the third time this season Saturday in Houston to reach its 10th title game. The Tar Heels are the only top seed remaining in the NCAA Tournament field and upstart Syracuse navigated its way to a sixth Final Four from the 10th seed.

Seniors Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige lead a North Carolina team that is averaging 89.3 points while winning by an average of 16 in the Big Dance, and has won nine in a row. Paige told reporters: “I think we always thought we were going to be the favorite because in our minds when we’re playing our best basketball, we feel we can’t be beat. So, that’s the mentality I’m sure all four teams have going in.” The Orange had lost five of six games coming into the NCAA Tournament, but have played their best basketball at the right time to move within a victory of meeting Oklahoma or Villanova in the final. “I think we learned lot about each other throughout the whole entire year, and all those things are paying off now,” Syracuse senior guard Trevor Cooney told reporters. “We’re sticking together, believing in each other, and good things happen when you do that.”

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS:

Syracuse - Open 100-1, Current 10/1
North Carolina - Open 8-1, Current 10/11

LINE HISTORY: North Carolina opened as nine-point faves for their Final Four showdown with Syracuse and have remained at that number. However, the Tar Heels have creeped up to -9.5 at some books. The total opened at 147 and has seen mostly under money since then, moving down to as low as 144.5. It has come back up to 145, where it currently sits. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The current betting odds give North Carolina an 83 percent chance of winning this game straight-up. The bigger question for most bettors is if Syracuse can stay within the large pointspread. The key will be if the Orangemen can slow down the pace of play and force UNC into a half-court game. Syracuse was unable to do this in the first regular season meeting on January 9th, losing by 11 points at home with the game going Over the total (157 points), however the Orangemen played better in the rematch on February 29th at Chapel Hill, losing by only 5 points with the game landing right near on the total (145 points)."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We have seen good two way action on our -9.5 point spread on North Carolina with with just over 55 percent of the action on the Tar Heels to cover. The 145 point total is also seeing solid two action with over 55 percent of the action on the Under."

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT SYRACUSE (23-13, 20-15 ATS, 18-17 O/U): The Orange won their lone NCAA title in 2003 and boast a mix of veteran leadership with talented young players to go along with a Hall of Fame coach in Jim Boeheim. Senior Michael Gbinije tops the team in scoring (17.6) and boasts 91 3-pointers while recording double figures in points 37 straight contests and at least 20 in four of the past six games. Freshman Malachi Richardson raised his level of play in the NCAAs, including a season high-matching 23 points in the 68-62 Elite Eight victory over Virginia, and fellow freshman Tyler Lydon (10.2 points overall) is also a threat.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (32-6, 19-18-1 ATS, 20-18 O/U): Hall of Fame coach Roy Williams’ Tar Heels began their winning streak with a 75-70 triumph against Syracuse on Feb. 29 and Johnson (17.1 points, 10.5 rebounds overall) has been a consistent force. The 6-10 All-American forward is averaging 21 points, 9.8 boards and shooting 63 percent from the field in the first four rounds while Paige drained 13-of-27 from 3-point range in the same span. Guard Joel Berry II has committed only four turnovers in the last six games while swingman Justin Jackson, a Texas native, is 6-for-13 from behind the arc in the NCAAs.

TRENDS:

* Syracuse is 6-0 ATS in its last six games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
* North Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last five games versus Atlantic Coast conference opponents.
* Under is 4-1 in Syracuse's last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 5-1 in North Carolina's last six NCAA Tournament games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are giving the slight edge to Syracuse in this Final Four showdown, with 53 percent of wagers backing the Orange. As for the total, 59 percent of wagers are on the over.

Announcement

The Bum's Final Four & Championship Game Picks-Trends-Stats-News !!

The Bum's Final Four & Championship Game Picks-Trends-Stats-News !!

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