Announcement

**Udog** · 03-23-2016, 01:48 PM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, March 24

Duke @ Oregon

Game 815-816
March 24, 2016 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Duke
68.489
Oregon
75.499
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oregon
by 9
162
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oregon
by 2 1/2
156
Dunkel Pick:
Oregon
(-2 1/2); Over

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma

Game 817-818
March 24, 2016 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas A&M
68.779
Oklahoma
73.763
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma
by 5
141
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma
by 1 1/2
146
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma
(-1 1/2); Under

Maryland @ Kansas

Game 811-812
March 24, 2016 @ 9:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Maryland
69.641
Kansas
73.557
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas
by 4
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas
by 6 1/2
145
Dunkel Pick:
Maryland
(+6 1/2); Over

Miami (Fla.) @ Villanova

Game 813-814
March 24, 2016 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami (Fla.)
71.302
Villanova
72.499
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 1
146
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 4 1/2
140 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami (Fla.)
(+4 1/2); Over

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 24

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MARYLAND (27 - 8) vs. KANSAS (32 - 4) - 3/24/2016, 9:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
KANSAS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
KANSAS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
KANSAS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
KANSAS is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MARYLAND is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 144.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (27 - 7) vs. VILLANOVA (31 - 5) - 3/24/2016, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VILLANOVA is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 41-26 ATS (+12.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 129-89 ATS (+31.1 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
MIAMI is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MIAMI is 131-95 ATS (+26.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MIAMI is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
MIAMI is 86-57 ATS (+23.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DUKE (25 - 10) vs. OREGON (30 - 6) - 3/24/2016, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
DUKE is 55-82 ATS (-35.2 Units) in March games since 1997.
DUKE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
OREGON is 58-41 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON is 58-41 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
OREGON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
DUKE is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TEXAS A&M (28 - 8) vs. OKLAHOMA (27 - 7) - 3/24/2016, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 12-20 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 12-20 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
OKLAHOMA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in March games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OKLAHOMA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 1-0 straight up against TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TX-ARLINGTON (24 - 10) at NEW JERSEY TECH (19 - 14) - 3/24/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY TECH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games since 1997.
NEW JERSEY TECH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
NEW JERSEY TECH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY TECH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY TECH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TX-ARLINGTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
TX-ARLINGTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Short Sheet

Thursday, March 24

Maryland at Kansas, 9:40 ET
Maryland: 9-18 ATS after a game where they covered the spread
Kansas: 8-2 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite

Miami at Villanova, 7:10 ET
Miami: 7-1 OVER when playing on a neutral court
Villanova: 18-9 ATS in non-conference games

Duke at Oregon, 10:05 ET
Duke: 1-7 ATS in all neutral court lined games
Oregon: 11-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders

Texas AM at Oklahoma, 7:35 ET
Texas AM: 20-8 ATS after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more
Oklahoma: 2-11 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5

UT Arlington at New Jersey Tech, 7:30 ET
UT Arlington: 4-11 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite
New Jersey Tech: 9-2 ATS after a non-conference game

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 24

Under Bill Self, Kansas is 5-2 in regional semifinals, 3-4 vs spread (they were favored in all 7); Jayhawks won last 16 games overall, they lost by 6 to Michigan St on neutral floor in November, their only Big 14 game this year. Maryland beat #12-13 seeds last week, after a 3-5 skid coming into NCAAs; Terps are 13-1 outside Big 14, with loss at North Carolina by 8. Big X teams are 5-2 vs Big 14 teams this year, 2-2 vs spread when favored. Last 10 years, #1 seeds are 16-19 vs spread in this round. Terps are #46 defending arc; Kansas is shooting 41.9% on arc (#4).

ACC teams are 12-1 in NCAAs (Pitt only loss); Miami beat Butler by 10 in its only Big East game. Villanova is in Sweet 16 for first time since '09; they beat Ga Tech, lost to Virginia in its two ACC games. Wildcats cruised in both games LW, leading Iowa by 25 at the half Sunday. Miami is 14-4 in its last 18 games; Villanova is 14-2 in its last 16. ACC teams are 6-5 vs Big East teams this year; favorites are 8-3 vs spread in the 11 games. Since '05, when 2-3 seeds meet in regional semis, underdog is 8-6 vs spread. Hurricanes are #32 in experience, Villanova is #182.

This is third time in 20 years Duke is lower-seeded team; they lost by 4 to Kansas is '03 regional semi, by 22 to Louisville in 2013 regional final. Over last 30 years, Duke is 7-3 vs spread as a dog- they're 4-6 in its last ten regional semifinal games. Bue Devils led Yale by 27, had it cut to 3 in last game. Oregon won its last ten games, allowing 57.7 ppg in last three. Ducks scored 76+ points in nine of last ten games. ACC teams are 4-2 vs Pac-12 teams this year, but were favored in five of six games. Last 10 years, #1 seeds are 16-19 against the spread in this round.

Texas A&M came back from dead Sunday, rallying from 12 down with 0:35 left. Aggies are 3-0 vs Big X teams this year, beating Texas, Baylor, K-State; they're 10-1 in last 11 games overall. A&M starts three seniors; House is NBA-level talent with ball. Oklahoma is 13-0 outside the Big X this year; Sooners start three seniors, have four kids who've started 100+ games together. Oklahoma beat A&M 64-52 in last meeting, two years ago. Big X teams are 12-7 vs SEC teams this year, 6-4 vs spread when favored. Since '05, when 2-3 seeds meet in regional semis, dogs are 8-6.

NIT
None

CBI
None

CIT
Tex-Arlington is 10-2 outside Sun Belt (#236 non-conf sked); Mavericks won six of last seven games overall, are 4-1 in last five true away games, and they've played most of year without best player Hervey, who blew out his knee in mid-January. NJIT won five of last six at home, losing to Stetson in A-Sun tourney; they're #75 experience team but are 0-4 vs top 100 teams this season, losing by 30-7-22-18 points. Arlington does not have a senior starter- they could be an NCAA sleeper next year.

NCAAB

Thursday, March 24

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Trend Report
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7:10 PM
MIAMI vs. VILLANOVA
No trends available
Villanova is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami
Villanova is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games

7:30 PM
TEXAS-ARLINGTON vs. NJIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas-Arlington's last 5 games on the road
Texas-Arlington is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
No trends available

7:37 PM
TEXAS A&M vs. OKLAHOMA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oklahoma's last 12 games
Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Texas A&M

9:40 PM
MARYLAND vs. KANSAS
No trends available
Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas's last 6 games

9:55 PM
DUKE vs. OREGON
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oregon's last 9 games
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 03-23-2016, 02:19 PM

Sweet 16 has been dominated by the dogs, especially these profitable pups

Sweet 16 favorites went 6-2 ATS last year but underdogs have dominated the regional semis since 2011, covering the spread over 60 percent of the time.

Sweet 16 favorites were a tasty treat for basketball bettors last March when NCAA tournament teams giving the points in the regional semifinals finished with a 6-2 record against the spread (7-1 ATS).

That proposition has typically been a sour wager for those laying the points, with Sweet 16 underdogs posting a 21-9-1 ATS record (12-19 SU with one game closing as a pick’em) the four years prior (2011-2014) - covering the spread 70 percent of the time in that span.

That has Big Dance bettors wondering how loud the underdogs will bark in Thursday and Friday’s Sweet 16 matchups. Perhaps the one thing that should most concern those looking to wager on the eight NCAA games is the size of the dog in those contests.

Looking back to 2007, Sweet 16 underdogs between +3 and +6.5 are a collective 18-11-1 ATS (13-17 SU), covering the spread 62 percent of the time in that nine-season stretch. And shortening the sample to those four tournaments mentioned above – 2011 to 2014 – those same-sized pups (+3 to +6.5) posted an 11-4 ATS count, for a 73 percent cover rate.

Taking a glance at the 2016 tournament schedule, six of the eight regional semifinals fall under that pointspread category – save for Oklahoma (-2.5) vs. Texas A&M, and Notre Dame (-1) vs. Wisconsin. Miami is getting four points from Villanova, Maryland is a 6.5-point underdog to Kansas, Duke moved from +1.5 to +3 versus Oregon, Iowa State is getting five points from Virginia, Syracuse is at +4.5 facing Gonzaga, and Indiana is a 5.5-point pup against North Carolina.

As for the Aggies and Badgers currently sitting as slim betting pups, it’s not as cut and dry as dogs between +3 and +6.5. Underdogs between +1 and +1.5 are just 3-5 SU and ATS in the Sweet 16 since 2007 while dogs between +2 and +2.5 boast a breakeven 4-4-1 ATS record, going 3-6 SU in that span.

So far, NCAA tournament betting underdogs have finished 12-36 SU and 22-25-1 ATS heading into the Sweet 16, covering at just a 47 percent clip. Those NCAA teams getting between +3 and +6.5 are a split 8-8 ATS (7-9 SU).

**Udog** · 03-24-2016, 08:09 AM

Thursday's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 betting previews

South Region

No. 3 Miami-Florida Hurricanes vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (-4, 140.5)

Game to be played at KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY

Villanova was one of the more impressive teams over the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, while Miami (Fla.) squeaked out a pair of victories en route to the Sweet 16. The South Region opponents square off Friday in Louisville with a berth in the Elite 8 on the line.

The second-seeded Wildcats and third-seeded Hurricanes are barely distinguishable on the seed line, but their play last weekend left a clear difference between the two programs. Villanova topped UNC Asheville by 30 points before putting up 54 first-half points in a comfortable 19-point triumph against Iowa. Meanwhile, Miami nipped Buffalo and Wichita State by a combined 11 points behind two big performances from senior guard Angel Rodriguez. The Wildcats also got a lift from their senior guard last weekend, as Ryan Arcidiacono eyes another strong effort after averaging 15 points on 10-of-15 shooting (including 6-of-9 from the arc) in the first two rounds.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: Villanova opened as five-point favorites and was bet down to -4 by mid-week. The total debuted at 141.5 and dropped slightly to 140.5. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We had Miami sitting at +4.5 with just over 40 percent of the action to cover the spread on Monday. We have since gone to Villanova -4 with 57 percent of the action on Villanova to cover. We opened the total at 142.5 with over 90 percent of the early action on the over Monday. We have since moved the total down to 141 with some sharp action coming in on the Under."

ABOUT MIAMI (27-7, 19-13-1 ATS, 16-17 O/U): Rodriguez has the look of the classic college basketball senior point guard who simply won't let his team lose, having compiled 52 points, nine rebounds, nine assists and seven steals in the first two games "He has great confidence in himself, and when he's focused, he has the ability to play at a very, very high level," coach Jim Larranaga said of Rodriguez, who averages 12.6 points, trailing only backcourt mate Sheldon McClellan among the team leaders. "His biggest challenge is he needs competition. When the competition is at its highest, he's at his best." McClellan has averaged 19 points in this tournament, although fellow senior Tonye Jekiri (7.8 points, 8.7 rebounds) has been limited to a total of seven points and 10 boards in two games.

ABOUT VILLANOVA (31-5, 17-17-1 ATS, 18-16-1 O/U): The Wildcats followed their regular formula against Iowa, as their four top scorers all registered double-digit points - and combined for eight 3-pointers - while big man Daniel Ochefu took care of the rebounding (11) and the shot-blocking (three). "We definitely can go all the way as long as we stick to what we do," said Arcidiacono, who averages 12 points, putting him behind Josh Hart (15.4) and Kris Jenkins (13.3) on the squad. Hart, Jenkins, Arcidiacono and freshman Jalen Brunson have combined to take nearly 700 3-pointers this season and each shoots at least 35 percent from the 3-point line, not to mention at least 74 percent from the foul line, as well.

TRENDS:

* Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
* Villanova is 1-5 ATS in their last six versus Atlantic Coast conference opponents.
* Over is 9-2 in Miami's last 11 NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 8-1 in Wildcats last nine games following a SU win.

No. 5 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (-6.5, 143.5)

Top-seeded Kansas roared through the opening week of the NCAA Tournament and attempts to post its 17th consecutive victory on Thursday when it faces fifth-seeded Maryland in the Sweet 16 at Louisville, Ky. The Jayhawks are looking to reach the Elite Eight for the first time since 2012, while the Terrapins are part of the Sweet 16 for the initial time since 2003.

The Jayhawks lost their second game in each of the past two NCAA Tournaments and this year's squad has had the Final Four as a goal since the start of the campaign. "These last couple years we've been bounced a little bit early, and it's definitely left a bad taste in our mouth as a team," senior forward Jamari Traylor said at Wednesday's press conference. "We're just more focused. Every possession matters. We're just more in tune, more of a tight-knit group." Maryland is thriving under coach Mark Turgeon - a former Kansas player and assistant coach - and senior guard Rasheed Sulaimon feels his team is primed to knock off the Jayhawks. "I think it's just going to come down to how each team executes their game plan," Sulaimon said at Wednesday's press conference. "It's going to be a heavyweight battle between two great teams, between two great coaches. I'm sure they have a great game plan for us and we have a great game plan for them."

TV: 9:40 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: The no. 1 seeded Jayhawks opened as seven-point favorites and the spread has dropped slightly down to -6.5. The total opened at 146 and has been bet down to 143.5. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Kansas as a -7 point favorite and took over 85 percent of the early action on the Jayhawks to cover the -7 points. With the action starting to come in on Maryland we have moved to Kansas -6.5 with just over 60 percent of the action to cover the spread. Our 144 point total is getting dead even action with 50 percent on the over/under."

ABOUT MARYLAND (27-8, 16-17-1 ATS, 13-20-1 O/U): Guard Melo Trimble is averaging 21.5 points in NCAA tourney wins over South Dakota State and Hawaii but the sophomore who leads the squad in scoring (14.8) and assists (five per game) is a streaky outside shooter despite sharing the team lead of 57 3-pointers with senior forward Jake Layman (11.7). "I'm a confident player," Trimble said at the Maryland press conference. "If I miss one, I'll shoot the next one. It's supposed to be a short memory. When you're having fun, you don't worry about the misses. You keep shooting and do whatever it takes to help your team win." Joining Trimble and Layman as double-digit scorers are freshman center Diamond Stone (12.7), junior forward Robert Carter (12.4 points, team-best seven rebounds per game) and Suliamon (11.1).

ABOUT KANSAS (32-4, 23-11 ATS, 13-20-1 O/U): Junior guard Wayne Selden Jr. is putting the ugly performances of the past two NCAA tourneys behind him - he averaged 2.5 points on 4-of-21 shooting in four games - to average 18 points on 13-of-25 shooting in victories over Austin Peay and Connecticut. "Everybody's going to go through times where everything's not going well," Selden said at the Kansas press conference. "Nobody's perfect, but it's all about just getting through it. If you're winning at that time, it doesn't matter." Senior forward Perry Ellis leads the Jayhawks in scoring (16.9) and is followed by Selden (13.6), junior guard Frank Mason III (12.8 points, team-best 4.6 assists) and sophomore guard Devonte' Graham (11.4).

TRENDS:

* Maryland is 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Kansas is 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.
* Under is 7-1 in Maryland's last eight games following an ATS win.
* Under is 25-7 in Jayhawk's last 32 NCAA Tournament games.

West Region

No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners (-2.5, 146)

Game to be played at Honda Center, Anaheim, CA.

Texas A&M completed the greatest comeback in college basketball history to reach the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament, and Thursday the third-seeded Aggies will try to maintain their momentum against No. 2 Oklahoma in the West Region game at Honda Center in Anaheim. Texas A&M rallied from 12 points down in the final 35 seconds before defeating Northern Iowa in overtime last weekend, earning a Sweet Sixteen matchup against its former Big 12 rival.

The Sooners are making their second straight trip to the Sweet Sixteen after losing to Michigan State in this round last season. Four players who started that game have started the last 102 for Oklahoma; Isaiah Cousins, Buddy Hield, Ryan Spangler and Jordan Woodard, each of whom has also scored at least 1,000 points in their respective careers. Hield, the two-time Big 12 Player of the Year, comes in averaging 25.4 points--second in the nation and tops among power 5 schools--and the 6-foot-4 senior guard has produced 63 points in the first two games of this tournament. Danuel House doesn't want his college career to end Thursday either, so expect the 6-7 forward for Texas A&M to continue playing at a high level, something he's done while averaging 24.7 points over the last three games.

TV: 7:37 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The point spread opened at -1.5 in favor of the higher seeded Sooners and the public hit that number hard early in the week which forced the books to bump the line up to -2.5. The total opened at 145 and was bet up slightly to 146. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Oklahoma as a -2 point favorite with over 90 percent of the early action on the Sooners to cover. We are now sitting at Oklahoma -3 with over 85 percent of the action on Oklahoma to cover. Our total of 146.5 is getting 85 perent of the action on the OVER."

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (28-8, 16-13-2 ATS, 14-17 O/U): The Aggies can't expect point guard Alex Caruso to score another 20-something points and more than triple his scoring average, as he did in the win against Northern Iowa, but demanding strong performances from their starting front court of Jalen Jones and Tyler Davis shouldn't be a stretch. Both match up well against Spangler and fellow Oklahoma big man Khadeem Lattin, who haven't been tested in a while. Jones, a 6-7 forward who's second on the team in scoring (15.4) and leads in rebounding (7.1), should take advantage of his quickness off the floor and the 6-10, 265-pound Davis will have a size advantage and regularly scores in double figures as well.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (27-7, 12-20 ATS, 15-17 O/U): The Sooners will undoubtedly counter with their 3-point shooting proficiency, as they enter this game at 42.5 percent from beyond the arc this season, which is second best in the nation, and shot 41.3 in the two games last weekend in Oklahoma City. Hield was fourth in the nation in 3-point attempts (274) during the regular season and 20th in 3-point percentage (46.4), but opponents have been making it harder for him to beat them from deep the last several weeks. Hield made at least half of his 3-point attempts in 16 of the first 20 games, but only shot 50 percent or better once in the last 14 contests.

TRENDS:

* Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after scoring more than 90 points in its last game.
* Oklahoma is 1-7 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 5-0 in Texas A&M's last five games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
* Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.

No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks (-3, 156.5)

Game to be played at Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Oregon has matched a school record for wins in a season, but anything short of a trip to the Final Four will rate as a disappointment for the top-seeded Ducks, who face No. 4 seed Duke in the NCAA Tournament West Region semifinal Thursday in Anaheim, Calif. The Blue Devils are trying to become the first team to win back-to-back national titles since Florida in 2006 and 2007.

The Ducks’ title hopes have new life, as they trailed by seven with five minutes remaining before rallying to beat No. 8 seed St. Joseph’s 69-64 on Sunday, avoiding becoming the first No. 1 seed to bow out of this year’s tournament. The Blue Devils know the feeling of flirting with disaster – they allowed No. 13 seed UNC Wilmington to hang around for most of their first-round matchup and squandered most of a 23-point halftime lead before holding off 12th-seeded Yale 71-64 on Saturday. “Our house is on a cliff, and we hope it doesn’t rain,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski told reporters. “That’s who we’ve been, and so I really have an appreciation for that.” It’s only the second meeting between the programs with Duke winning the first, 98-71 in Portland in 2010.

TV: 10:07 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The point spread for this game opened at -1.5 on the side of the no. 1 ranked team in the region. The public felt this number wasn't high enough and forced the books to move their initial line up to -3. The total opened at 156.5 and has been steady all week. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Oregon as a -2.5 point favorite and all the early action was on the Ducks to cover that number. We are now up to Oregon -3.5 with just over 65 percent of the action on the Ducks to cover. The 156.5 total is seeing a slight edge towards the OVER, with 51 percent of wagers on it."

ABOUT DUKE (25-10, 14-18-2 ATS, 15-19 O/U): The Blue Devils have evolved significantly since losing star big man Amile Jefferson to a broken foot in December. They now rely heavily on their outside shooting, and when they’re hitting from the perimeter it can mask other shortcomings – like a 42-28 deficit on the boards against Yale. Leading scorer Grayson Allen (21.8 points), standout freshman Brandon Ingram (17.1 points, 6.8 rebounds) and junior guard Matt Jones (10.5 points) all can light it up from outside, but the Blue Devils also need 7-footer Marshall Plumlee (8.4 points, 8.7 rebounds) to be effective in the post to pull off the upset.

ABOUT OREGON (30-6, 20-13 ATS, 15-18 O/U): The Ducks are extremely efficient at the offensive end with point guard Casey Benson (5.9 points, 4.7-to-1 assists-to-turnovers) spreading the wealth among a quartet of double-digit scorers. The frontcourt does much of the damage – a potential matchup problem for Duke – with forwards Dillon Brooks (16.8 points, 5.6 rebounds) and Elgin Cook (14.5 points, 5.1 rebounds) leading the way. The Ducks also defend the post well, but their perimeter defense has been suspect at times, which they can’t afford against an excellent 3-point shooting Duke team.

TRENDS:

* Duke is 7-1 ATS in its last eight NCAA Tournament games.
* Oregon a 0-4 ATS in their last four versus Atlantic Coast conference opponents.
* Under is 7-1 in Duke's last eight games following a SU win.
* Over is 4-1 in Ducks last five non-conference games.

**Udog** · 03-24-2016, 08:46 AM

Armadillo's write-up has updated.

Announcement

Thursday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/24

Thursday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/24

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