Announcement

**Udog** · 03-23-2016, 08:28 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds for six interesting first round matches in Match Play golf today......

Jason Day (-$225) vs Graeme McDowell (+$180)

Rickie Fowler (-$190) vs Jason Dufner (+$155)

Sergio Garcia (-$155) vs Lee Westwood (+$125)

Adam Scott (-$210) vs Thomas Pieters (+$175)

Shane Lowry (-$130) vs Martin Kaymer (even)

Brooks Koepka (-$130) vs Billy Horschel (even)

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings........

13) I see where coaches Mike Montgomery, Hugh Durham were elected to College Basketball Hall of Fame in Kansas City; congrats to them, but why isn't UNLV's Jerry Tarkanian in that Hall of Fame? He is in Springfield's Basketball Hall of Fame (the real HOF), but for some reason, a Hall of Fame with Gene Keady, Norm Stewart, Lefty Driesell and Lou Carnesecca doesn't have room for Tark the Shark. No bueno.

12) Denzel Washington went to college at Fordham; he played freshman basketball, where his coach was PJ Carlesimo; both went on to bigger and better things.

11) Coaching carousel: Central Florida hires Johnny Dawkins, recently fired by the Stanford Cardinal. Southern Utah hired Todd Simon, former interim coach at UNLV.

10) Cat Barber bolts NC State for the NBA; this is why some teams cannot gain any traction in their leagues. Players skip out early and try to cash in, which obviously is their right, but teams that develop a nucleus of good players who don't have their eyes on NBA are ones that win more consistently-- say a team like Wisconsin or maybe Virginia. Kentucky/Duke are scooping up most of the big-time recruits.

9) Los Angeles Angels were supposed to play an exhibition game in Salt Lake City against their farm team Tuesday, but the game got snowed out. Snow. Yuk.

8) Remember Rik Smits, the Pacers' center? His son is red-shirting at Valparaiso this year and yes he is also 7-1. If he is as good as his dad, Bryce Drew is a lucky guy.

7) When the Chicago Cubs stretched yesterday, they were led by....a mime. I am not kidding, a freakin' mime was on the field, leading their stretching. Joe Maddon is big on breaking up the monotony of a long season. Mimes will do that sort of thing.

6) Spring training statistics are largely useless; Bob Welch won 27 games for the '90 A's, he won the Cy Young. His ERA in spring training that year was over 17.00.

5) Duke-Oregon game will be just third time in last 20 years that Duke is the lower-seeded team in an NCAA tourney game- they lost the other two, to Louisville in a regional final, to Kansas in a regional semi. Over last 30 years, Duke is 7-3 vs spread when getting points in the NCAAs- they're an underdog against Oregon.

4) Bandwagon fever: Royals drew 11,781 fans for an exhibition game last night, during which Royals' TV guy Rex Hudler was defending Chase Utley's slide from playoffs LY, when he broke Ruben Tejada's leg.

They showed Hal McRae breaking up a DP in the 1972 World Series, when he threw a cross-body block on Oakland's Dick Green. Hudler sounded like my dad, when he used to go into his "back in the good ol' days" routine. Classic stuff.

3) Why don't both leagues have the DH, or neither league? How is this possible, that one league does and one does not? And in Japan, it is the same damn thing-- one league has the DH, the other league doesn't. Makes no sense.

2) Roy Williams banks an extra $200K if North Carolina beats Indiana Friday; think he'll spring for extra toppings on players' pizzas if the Tar Heels win? He gets $200K more if the Tar Heels win on Sunday and $250K more if they win national title.

1) Today is an underrated TV day, with 32 first round matches in World Golf Match Play tournament. Plus some exhibition baseball. Better-than-usual daytime TV, which isn't sayng much. The quality of daytime TV most days is putrid.

**Udog** · 03-23-2016, 08:30 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 23

Georgia Tech @ San Diego State

Game 777-778
March 23, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Tech
64.390
San Diego State
71.473
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego State
by 7
130
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego State
by 4 1/2
135
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego State
(-4 1/2); Under

Florida @ George Washington

Game 775-776
March 23, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
63.181
George Washington
66.627
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
George Washington
by 3 1/2
153
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
George Washington
by 1 1/2
147 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
George Washington
(-1 1/2); Over

Vermont @ Nevada

Game 793-794
March 23, 2016 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vermont
58.615
Nevada
57.590
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vermont
by 1
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nevada
by 4
145
Dunkel Pick:
Vermont
(+4); Over

Morehead State @ Ohio

Game 791-792
March 23, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Morehead State
53.527
Ohio
59.388
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio
by 6
157
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio
by 3 1/2
152 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio
(-3 1/2); Over

UC Irvine @ UL Lafayette

Game 783-784
March 23, 2016 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UC Irvine
57.140
UL Lafayette
61.757
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UL Lafayette
by 4 1/2
146
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UL Lafayette
by 2
153 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UL Lafayette
(-2); Under

Grand Canyon @ Coastal Carolina

Game 781-782
March 23, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Grand Canyon
52.898
Coastal Carolina
53.753
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Coastal Carolina
by 1
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Coastal Carolina
by 4
143
Dunkel Pick:
Grand Canyon
(+4); Over

Ball State @ Columbia

Game 779-780
March 23, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ball State
55.393
Columbia
60.798
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Columbia
by 5 1/2
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Columbia
by 7 1/2
138
Dunkel Pick:
Ball State
(+7 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 03-23-2016, 08:34 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 23

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FLORIDA (21 - 14) at GEORGE WASHINGTON (25 - 10) - 3/23/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 117-88 ATS (+20.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 71-44 ATS (+22.6 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
GEORGE WASHINGTON is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEORGIA TECH (21 - 14) at SAN DIEGO ST (27 - 9) - 3/23/2016, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA TECH is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA TECH is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) on Wednesday games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALL ST (21 - 13) at COLUMBIA (22 - 10) - 3/23/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
BALL ST is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in March games since 1997.
BALL ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBIA is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
COLUMBIA is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in home games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GRAND CANYON (27 - 6) at COASTAL CAROLINA (20 - 11) - 3/23/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UC-IRVINE (26 - 9) at LA-LAFAYETTE (19 - 14) - 3/23/2016, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UC-IRVINE is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
UC-IRVINE is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MOREHEAD ST (21 - 12) at OHIO U (23 - 11) - 3/23/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 136-100 ATS (+26.0 Units) in all home games since 1997.
OHIO U is 136-100 ATS (+26.0 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
OHIO U is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MOREHEAD ST is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MOREHEAD ST is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MOREHEAD ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.
MOREHEAD ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
MOREHEAD ST is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
MOREHEAD ST is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MOREHEAD ST is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MOREHEAD ST is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MOREHEAD ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MOREHEAD ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VERMONT (23 - 13) at NEVADA (21 - 13) - 3/23/2016, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VERMONT is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
VERMONT is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
VERMONT is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 03-23-2016, 08:36 AM

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, March 23

Florida at George Washington, 7:00 ET
Florida: 9-20 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins
George W: 31-15 ATS at home after scoring 75 pts or more 2 straight games

Georgia Tech at San Diego State, 9:00 ET
Georgia Tech: 14-6 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week
San Diego St: 0-6 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more

Ball State at Columbia, 7:00 ET
Ball St: 0-6 ATS after allowing 80 points or more
Columbia: 51-31 ATS in non-conference games

Grand Canyon at Coastal Carolina, 7:00 ET
Grand Canyon: 1-3 ATS in a post-season tournament game
Coastal Carolina: 10-2 ATS off a home win

Cal Irvine at UL Lafayette, 8:15 ET
Cal Irvine: 18-36 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more
UL Lafayette: 10-2 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games

Morehead State at Ohio, 7:00 ET
Morehead St: 6-0 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5
Ohio: 0-6 ATS after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers

Vermont at Nevada, 10:00 ET
Vermont: 2-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins
Nevada: 11-2 ATS after a game where they were called for 10 or less fouls

**Udog** · 03-23-2016, 08:38 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 23

NIT
Florida's gym is being re-done; Gators won first two NIT games on the road- they've won four of last five games overall, losing to A&M by 6 in SEC semis. Gators beat St Joe's by 11, Richmond by 20 in two A-14 games. George Washington played four starters 33:00+ on Monday at Monmouth (Florida played Sunday); they beat Tennessee by 3 in only SEC game. A-14 teams are 5-3 vs SEC squads this spring.

San Diego State had 12,400+ fans for its win Monday; Aztecs are 20-3 in last 23 games, 10-1 in last 11 at home (lost to Boise St). Georgia Tech won easy at South Carolina Monday (two guys used more than 25:00); they've won eight of last ten games. Aztecs used only two guys more than 26:00 Monday- they've got #1 eFG% defense in country. Yellow Jackets are 12-3 outside the ACC this season.

CBI
Morehead State won eight of last nine games, scoring 83 ppg in winning first two games in this tourney; only two Eagles played more than 27:00 in their 67-possession win Monday. Ohio beat Tennessee State by 8 in its only OVC game; Bobcats won by 4-5 in first two tourney tilts, both at home. Ohio is an offensive team; Morehead State pressure on defense. Morehead is #72 experienced team; Ohio U is #289.

Vermont stays out west after winning at Seattle Monday; Catamounts are 9-1 in last 10 games, after a 14-12 start- they used five guys 30:00+ in Seattle Monday- they won three of last four true road games. Nevada scored 82 ppg in winning first two tourney games; Wolf Pack used only seven guys Monday; star Coleman returned with 15:00 off bench- three Nevada guys played 34:00+. 6-8 Oliver will be a handful for Vermont.

CIT
Ball State needed OT in both its first two tourney games, beating pair of OVC schools; Cardinals (4-0 in OT this year) were down 11 with 2:27 left Sunday, rallied at home to win/advance here, vs Columbia squad that had bye in this event, beat Norfolk State a week ago to get here, so they are much more rested here. Lions start four seniors; Ball State starts two sophomores and a freshman.

Grand Canyon won eight of last ten games; Antelopes weren't eligible for WAC tourney- they're thrilled just to be playing- they're 2-3 in last five true road games. Coastal Carolina won 12 of last 15 games after 8-8 start; Chanticleers won last four home games since losing to High Point by 68-67 Feb 11. Cosatal is #28 experience team; they start four juniors and senior. Grand Canyon, looking for future, starts three sophs.

Irvine's 7-6 center Ndiaye is probable here; Anteaters won five of last six games, winning last game in OT at North Dakota- they've won last four true road games. UL-Lafayette won four of last five games, winning at Furman to get here; Cajuns scored 88 ppg in first two tournament tilts. Both teams start three seniors; this should be a good game.

**Udog** · 03-23-2016, 08:40 AM

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 23

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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
MOREHEAD STATE vs. OHIO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Morehead State's last 5 games on the road
Ohio is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ohio's last 9 games

7:00 PM
FLORIDA vs. GEORGE WASHINGTON
Florida is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida's last 5 games on the road
George Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
George Washington is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

7:00 PM
BALL STATE vs. COLUMBIA
Ball State is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ball State's last 5 games on the road
Columbia is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Columbia's last 6 games

7:00 PM
GRAND CANYON vs. COASTAL CAROLINA
Grand Canyon is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
No trends available

8:00 PM
UC IRVINE vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of UC Irvine's last 6 games on the road
UC Irvine is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 7 games

9:00 PM
GEORGIA TECH vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Diego State's last 11 games
San Diego State is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games

10:00 PM
VERMONT vs. NEVADA
No trends available
Nevada is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Nevada's last 10 games at home

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 03-23-2016, 10:27 AM

Long sheet has updated.

**Udog** · 03-23-2016, 02:17 PM

Sweet 16 has been dominated by the dogs, especially these profitable pups

Sweet 16 favorites went 6-2 ATS last year but underdogs have dominated the regional semis since 2011, covering the spread over 60 percent of the time.

Sweet 16 favorites were a tasty treat for basketball bettors last March when NCAA tournament teams giving the points in the regional semifinals finished with a 6-2 record against the spread (7-1 ATS).

That proposition has typically been a sour wager for those laying the points, with Sweet 16 underdogs posting a 21-9-1 ATS record (12-19 SU with one game closing as a pick’em) the four years prior (2011-2014) - covering the spread 70 percent of the time in that span.

That has Big Dance bettors wondering how loud the underdogs will bark in Thursday and Friday’s Sweet 16 matchups. Perhaps the one thing that should most concern those looking to wager on the eight NCAA games is the size of the dog in those contests.

Looking back to 2007, Sweet 16 underdogs between +3 and +6.5 are a collective 18-11-1 ATS (13-17 SU), covering the spread 62 percent of the time in that nine-season stretch. And shortening the sample to those four tournaments mentioned above – 2011 to 2014 – those same-sized pups (+3 to +6.5) posted an 11-4 ATS count, for a 73 percent cover rate.

Taking a glance at the 2016 tournament schedule, six of the eight regional semifinals fall under that pointspread category – save for Oklahoma (-2.5) vs. Texas A&M, and Notre Dame (-1) vs. Wisconsin. Miami is getting four points from Villanova, Maryland is a 6.5-point underdog to Kansas, Duke moved from +1.5 to +3 versus Oregon, Iowa State is getting five points from Virginia, Syracuse is at +4.5 facing Gonzaga, and Indiana is a 5.5-point pup against North Carolina.

As for the Aggies and Badgers currently sitting as slim betting pups, it’s not as cut and dry as dogs between +3 and +6.5. Underdogs between +1 and +1.5 are just 3-5 SU and ATS in the Sweet 16 since 2007 while dogs between +2 and +2.5 boast a breakeven 4-4-1 ATS record, going 3-6 SU in that span.

So far, NCAA tournament betting underdogs have finished 12-36 SU and 22-25-1 ATS heading into the Sweet 16, covering at just a 47 percent clip. Those NCAA teams getting between +3 and +6.5 are a split 8-8 ATS (7-9 SU).

Announcement

Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/23

Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/23

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