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**Udog** · 03-03-2016, 09:33 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- St Bonaventure 98, St Joe's 90-- Marcus Posey had 47 for the Bonnies.

-- Washington 98, Washington St. 91-- Andrew Andrews also had 47 for U-Dub.

-- Ole Miss 86, Mississippi St 78-- Stefan Moody had half the Rebels' points.

-- Hartford 68, Albany 59-- #2-seed Great Danes were 18-point home favorites.

-- NC State 73, Boston College 72-- Eagles almost got their first ACC win.

-- Austin Peay 92, Tennessee Tech 72-- Minor upset in OVC tourney.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......

13) RIP Mr Ray Stack-- A teacher, coach, friend, Ray passed away this week after a lengthy illness. Blessed with a booming voice and a tremendous laugh, Ray was always fun to be around-- you couldn't help but feel smarter after spending time with him.

He made an outsider feel welcome when he didn't have to; the four years Ray and I coached basketball together was one of the best experiences of my life.

RIP, Ray. It was an honor to know you.

12) Denver Broncos didn't franchise QB Brock Osweiler, meaning he becomes a free agent Wednesday; could it be that Peyton Manning might return to Denver?

11) VCU 70, Davidson 60-- Davidson coach Bob McKillop became Wildcats' coach in 1989, when VCU coach Will Wade.......was seven years old.

10) UNLV freshman Derrick Jones Jr has a 3.25 GPA, is a solid citizen, but he was declared ineligible this week because the ACT, out of nowhere, declared his test score ineligible.....on March 2. Not the NCAA, the actual ACT. Something isn't right-- why wasn't this discovered earlier? Now the kid will go pro when he isn't ready, when if it was discovered in the fall, he could've sat this year out, played next year, and his career wouldn't be screwed up. This doesn't sound like the right way to do business.

9) We talked yesterday about credits for the movie Leap of Faith, where a guy named Ricky Jay was mentioned-- turns out he is a magician that was influential in Steve Martin's career. Early on, Martin used to include magic in his comedy act, so it was a joke that Ricky Jay was listed in the credits as "Cons and Frauds Consultant".

8) Greedy bastard update-- We haven't done this for a while; I am told the price of gas in Ohio is in the $1.60's, which is great for them, but at the Mobil station closest to my house, it is still $2.13. Now there is another Mobil station about a mile from there- their price is $1.99, which makes no sense. Across the street from the place where gas is $2.13, they're selling it for $1.97, but the place has crummy parking and is harder to get in and out of, so not as many people get gas there. Go figure.

7) 36-year old Baron Davis played for the Knicks in 2012, the last time he was in the NBA; he has signed with the 76ers' D-League team, as he launches a comeback. This is going to be interesting, I guess, but do the 76ers really want him? If he can still play, what contender would take a chance on him? Four years is a long time.

6) Speaking of the D-League, the Knicks didn't offer Jimmer Fredette a second 10-day contract, which is a little unusual. I've always said he has two years on the Jazz bench coming to him, because his status as a BYU legend will allow him to end his playing career gracefully- that day may be coming sooner than he had hoped.

5) I'm enjoying spring training games during the day this week, but March is the one time of year I do not want to hear the name of players on my fantasy team on TV- it is seldom good news. Already have two pitchers hurt and a shortstop about to get the book thrown at him for a domestic violence thing. Oy.

4) Interesting contrast on ESPN-- they employ Joe Lunardi to re-configure the Field of 68 during every TV timeout, seemingly-- he works hard, his work is interesting, albeit irrelevant, but it is something to talk about. When it comes to the at-large bids, Lunardi favors taking strong mid-majors who slipped up in conference tournaments over teams from big conferences who had under-.500 records in conference.

Then there is Jay Bilas, an elitist who thinks the NCAAs should be the 68 best teams, no matter what. No automatic bids for smaller leagues-- those are the teams who make the tournament the fascinating event it is. He'd rather see the 10th-place team in the Pac-12 get in over the champ of the Southland Conference or the MAAC.

Differing opinions make for an interesting debate, but the charm of the NCAAs, and the big money it draws from CBS, is because it is truly a national tournament-- where else could Montana State play St John's, or UCLA play Stephen F Austin?

3) Heard a guy on TV say over weekend that he thought a #1 seed would get beat in first round of NCAA tournament this year- that has never happened. His partner was not agreeing with him, saying the 16-seeds have gotten worse over the years, plus two of the four 16-seeds have to win a play-in game first. Makes it harder.

2) In case you care about such things, going back to 1987, smallest pointspread in a 1-16 first round game was in 1990, when Michigan State was 15-point favorite over Murray State-- the Spartans won in overtime, as close to losing as a 1-seed has come.

1) I do think this year will be like 1988, when 6-seed Kansas won the national title, running a huge wave of luck to get advantageous matchups. Let me show you.....

1st round-- 6-seed Kansas (even) beat 11-seed Xavier 85-72
2nd round-- Kansas (-7.5) 61, beat 14-seed Murray State 61-58. Murray had upset the #3-seed NC State in its first round game.
3rd round-- Kansas (-1) beat Vanderbilt 77-64. Vandy upset #2-seed Pitt in a second round game.
Regional final-- Kansas (+2) beat Kansas State 77-58. K-State had upset the top seed Purdue in the regional semi-final.

So Kansas made the Final Four without playing the 1,2 or 3 seed in that region- that is how underdogs get to the Final Four. It could happen again.

**Udog** · 03-03-2016, 09:42 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 3

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PHOENIX (15 - 45) at MIAMI (34 - 26) - 3/3/2016, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 23-37 ATS (-17.7 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHOENIX is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in road games this season.
PHOENIX is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
PHOENIX is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
PHOENIX is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more this season.
MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-0 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 5-0 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (51 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (23 - 36) - 3/3/2016, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 6-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 6-4 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (24 - 35) at DALLAS (33 - 28) - 3/3/2016, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 7-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 7-2 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (42 - 19) at GOLDEN STATE (54 - 5) - 3/3/2016, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 4-4 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 6-3 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 3

Hot teams
-- Miami won five of its last seven games (5-7 last 12HF).
-- San Antonio won its last six games (12-7 last 19AF). Pelicans won three of last four home games (4-2 last 6HU).
-- Dallas won four of its last five games (5-2 last 7HF).
-- Warriors won their last six games (3-7 last 10HF)- they won last two games in overtime.

Cold teams
-- Suns lost 12 of their last 13 games (-14 last 15AU).
-- Kings lost eight of last eleven games (0-6 last 6AU).
-- Thunder lost five of their last seven games (2-3AU).

Series records
-- Miami won last ten games with Phoenix, covering last seven.
-- Spurs lost four of last six games with New Orleans.
-- Mavericks won seven of last eight games with Sacramento.
-- Warriors won five of last six games with Oklahoma City.

Totals
-- Five of last six Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven San Antonio games; four of last five New Orleans games went over.
-- Eight of last nine Sacramento games went over the total.
-- Last four games went over total for both Thunder, Warriors.

Back/backs
-- Spurs are 12-0 (8-4 vs spread) if they played night before. Pelicans are 6-6 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Sacramento is 3-5 vs spread in its last eight road games if they played the night before.
-- Oklahoma City is 2-6 vs spread if it played the night before.

NBA

Thursday, March 3

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
PHOENIX vs. MIAMI
Phoenix is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games
Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Phoenix

8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Orleans's last 13 games at home

8:30 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. DALLAS
Sacramento is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Sacramento's last 19 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Sacramento

10:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. GOLDEN STATE
Oklahoma City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
Oklahoma City is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Golden State is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Oklahoma City
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 03-03-2016, 03:35 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, March 3

Phoenix @ Miami

Game 501-502
March 3, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
108.061
Miami
119.543
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 11 1/2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 14 1/2
210
Dunkel Pick:
Phoenix
(+14 1/2); Under

San Antonio @ New Orleans

Game 503-504
March 3, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
125.432
New Orleans
118.892
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 5 1/2
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 8 1/2
207
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+8 1/2); Over

Sacramento @ Dallas

Game 505-506
March 3, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sacramento
113.365
Dallas
124.347
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 11
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7
221
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-7); Under

Oklahoma City @ Golden State

Game 507-508
March 3, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
120.739
Golden State
130.189
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 9 1/2
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 7 1/2
230
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-7 1/2); Under

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, March 3

Phoenix at Miami, 7:35 ET
Phoenix: 1-9 ATS on road after allowing 100 pts or more 4 straight games
Miami: 15-6 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite

San Antonio at New Orleans, 8:00 ET
San Antonio: 21-7 ATS off a home win
New Orleans: 5-14 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent

Sacramento at Dallas, 8:35 ET
Sacramento: 31-55 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent
Dallas: 6-2 ATS off an home win scoring 110 or more points

Oklahoma City at Golden State, 10:35 ET
Oklahoma City: 18-34 ATS after playing a game as favorite
Golden State: 16-6 ATS after a non-conference game

**Udog** · 03-03-2016, 03:46 PM

NBA

Thursday, March 3

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Game of the Day: Thunder at Warriors
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The home team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the Thunder and Warriors.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-8, 230)

Golden State and Oklahoma City engaged in the most thrilling contest of the season when they squared off Saturday and the two teams look to participate in another memorable contest when the Warriors host the Thunder on Thursday. Golden State guard Stephen Curry scored 46 points and tied the NBA record with 12 3-pointers Saturday and his final one was a 32-footer with 0.6 seconds left to give the Warriors a 121-118 overtime victory.

Curry (ankle) is questionable for the rematch because of an injury he suffered against the Thunder and the ailment forced him to sit out Tuesday's 109-105 overtime victory over the Atlanta Hawks. The Warriors have won 43 consecutive home games and are vying to tie the all-time mark of 44 straight, set by the Chicago Bulls from March 30, 1995 through April 4, 1996. Oklahoma City has lost five of its last seven games and arrives in a sour mood after letting a 22-point lead evaporate in Wednesday's 103-98 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. "I've said this before, the best thing for this team is adversity," Thunder coach Billy Donovan told reporters. "It needs adversity. It doesn't need to be easy, in my opinion. Here's an adverse situation - so what do we do going forward?"

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 8-point home favorites, while the total has already been bet down since hitting the board going from 231 to 230.

INJURY REPORT:

Thunder - No injuries to report.

Warriors - PG S. Curry (questionable Thursday, ankle), SF A. Iguodala (questionable Thursday, hamstring), C F. Ezeli (late March, knee).

POWER RANKINGS: Thunder (-10.3) - Warriors (-15.3) + home court (-3) = Warriors -8

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "After Saturday night's brutal loss to the Warriors, the Thunder followed it up with another brutal loss at the Clippers Wednesday night. They get a chance at revenge on Thursday. I wonder how many people are going to want to take the points in that spot. Meanwhile, three of the Warriors last four wins have been by six points or less, the last two coming in overtime.

deeply distressed after the meltdown against the Clippers - Oklahoma City was outscored 35-13 in the fourth quarter - and is concerned about the team's odds of getting past the Warriors, San Antonio Spurs and Clippers in the tough Western Conference. "I hate losing like that," Durant, who had 30 points for his 47th straight 20-point outing, told reporters. "If we want to be a great team, we're fooling ourselves. If we want to win a bunch of games during the regular season, it's cool, but we're fooling ourselves the way we're playing." Durant had 37 points and 12 rebounds against the Warriors on Saturday while All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook added 26 points and 13 assists.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (54-5, 33-24-2 ATS, 35-24 O/U): Curry's status is likely to be revealed at the mid-day shootaround and shooting guard Klay Thompson and forward Draymond Green will be expected to lead the offense if Curry can't play. Green missed all eight of his field-goal attempts and scored two points against the Thunder last Saturday despite contributing 14 rebounds, 14 assists, six steals and four blocked shots. Thompson had 32 points against Oklahoma City and is averaging 26 points over the last seven games despite suffering through an 8-of-27 shooting night against Atlanta.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Warriors' last four games overall.
* Over is 9-2 in Thunder's last 1 road games.
* Warriors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five versus Western Conference opponnents.

CONSENSUS: The early wagers are giving the edge to the Thunder in this Western Conference showdown with 59 percent of bettors on OKlahoma City. The public also likes the Over here with 61 percent of the wagers backing it.

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Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/3

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/3

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