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**Udog** · 03-01-2016, 07:45 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six of the best minor league prospects for the New York Mets.......

1) Steven Matz, P-- Was 4-0, 2.27 in six major league starts LY.

3) Dominic Smith, 1B-- Hit .290 in three seasons in minors; needs more power.

5) Brandon Nimmo, OF-- Mets drafted him instead of Jose Fernandez. Oy.

9) Matt Reynolds, 2B/SS-- Arkansas alum knocked in 65 runs in AAA LY.

18) Logan Verrett, P-- Baylor alum started four big league games LY.

23) LJ Mazzilli, 2B-- Hit .263 in AA LY; his dad played for the Mets.

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but......

13) Boston Red Sox had a payroll LY of $185,568,958, 3rd-highest in baseball; they added David Price LY, so I'm assuming their payroll will be at least that high again this season, but their 3B will be Pablo Sandoval, their 1B Hanley Ramirez. Not exactly Brooks Robinson and JT Snow. Could be lot of bunts against the Sox this season.

12) Was fun watching the Red Sox play two college teams Monday; not the same as a real big league game (those start today), but good nonetheless. Spring training park the Red Sox call home is a facsimile of Fenway Park, kind of cool.

11) Red Sox' new 1B coach is Ruben Amaro, Jr, who for last seven years was the GM of the Phillies. Odd situation; no one can ever remember this happening before, but apparently Amaro wants to be a field manager and this is how he is learning the ropes. Plus, he needed a job after the Phillies fired him.

10) Win a bar bet: only Hall of Famer to get his 3,000th hit against another Hall of Famer was Dave Winfield (for the Twins) against Dennis Eckersley (for the A's) way back in 1993, in the Metrodome.

Winfield played baseball/basketball at U of Minnesota, where his hoop coach was Bill Musselman, whose son Eric now coaches at Nevada-Reno.

9) Speaking of which, our Bad Beat of Week: Nevada 87, Colorado State (+3.5) 80

If you had Colorado State +3.5 Sunday, you weren't happy. Rams were down two as one of their guards raced downcourt for the last shot with 0:04 left. It looked good for the cover-- he was either going to shoot or run out of time, but a Nevada player didn't know the score- he thought they were up 3-- and he fouls the guy intentionally.

Colorado State guy makes both foul shots, game goes OT and Nevada covers. Oy.

8) Michigan Wolverines are having spring football practice in Florida; a damn good idea, very creative, but what is the price tab? Has to be steep.

7) Just watched a movie while I was writing this-- The Judge, with Robert Duvall and Robert Downey Jr-- a really, really good movie. Great cast- Billy Bob Thornton was a lawyer, one of the judges was Ken Howard, the coach from The White Shadow, one of my all-time favorite TV shows. Movie is on Cinemax this month.

6) Los Angeles Kings acquired Kris Versteeg this week; poor guy has been traded seven times in his career, going from Boston to Chicago to Toronto to Philly to Florida to Chicago to Carolina and now, to Los Angeles. These guys have families and their kids have to change schools and sure, they make a lot of money, but you get traded seven times by the time you're 29- it has to mess with your mind some.

5) St Mary's plays in WCC tourney starting Saturday in Las Vegas, but they don't like a week between games, I guess, so the Gaels are playing Grand Canyon tonight as a prep. Dan Majerle's Antelopes are 24-5, tied for second in the WAC- they've beaten San Diego State this season, so it should be a good prep for St Mary's.

4) Tennessee State forced 23 turnovers in beating Belmont Sunday; teams are likely to play in OVC semi-finals and Belmont will be favored again- they're younger and less athletic. OVC has four pretty good teams; any of them could win the tourney.

3) Has been fun watching Oregon State play this year; Gary Payton watching his son's senior year in college, at same school he starred for. Beavers' best two players for next year are the coaches' sons, so they ain't leaving early- Oregon State will be a force in the Pac-12 the next few years.

2) College basketball starts around Veterans' Day, second week in November, but it is a long season; think back to the Maui Classic-- Indiana lost to Wake Forest, UNLV- they couldn't guard a freakin' chair. Looked like Tom Crean was going to get fired.

But fast-forward three months; Indiana is 23-6, a top 20 team. UNLV, Wake Forest are a combined 10-24 in conference play- Rebels fired their coach. Teams improve or they regress, they seldom stay the same. It is part of why handicapping is difficult.

1) I've tried to be more interested in politics this year, partly because its the only decent daytime TV (thank God exhibition baseball starts today), but this election has become a sad indictment of our system, lot of jackasses acting like 10-year olds.

Our society is so disgusted with politicians that a rich, egotistical bully might become President-- if this guy wasn't a billionaire no one would give him the time of day, he'd just be the kind of guy you try to avoid. But he is rich, so he's a hero to some.

**Udog** · 03-01-2016, 07:45 AM

Red-hot Blazers burning up the book for lucky NBA bettors

Portland is 15-6 ATS over its last 21 games. In comparison, the Spurs (18-3 SU; 11-10 ATS) and Warriors (18-3 SU; 10-10-1 ATS) have not returned a profit over the same span.

In the NBA's previous 60 seasons, no player has been unanimously voted the MVP. Shaquille O'Neal in 2000, and LeBron James in 2013 each fell one vote short. But with his 3-point, game-winning shot on Saturday night vs. the Thunder, Steph Curry likely sewed up the first unanimous MVP season.

Curry has single-handedly dominated games against the other four best players in the West this season (Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard and Chris Paul), and his Warriors have gone 6-0 in those games. And what's most scary for the rest of the NBA: Golden State's three best players have yet to enter their prime.

Spread watch

Pop quiz: name the NBA's three hottest teams. Even a casual fan would likely correctly guess the two hottest teams (Golden State, San Antonio, each 9-1 its last 10 games). But most fans would fail to identify the third, which is the Portland Trail Blazers.

Portland is 8-2 its last 10, and 17-4 its last 21. Even better for basketball bettors, Portland is 15-6 ATS over its last 21 games. In comparison, the Spurs (18-3 SU; 11-10 ATS) and Warriors (18-3 SU; 10-10-1 ATS) have not returned a profit over the same span.

This week, the Blazers will play four road games against the Knicks, Celtics, Raptors and Pistons. The game against Boston isn't particularly ideal, as Portland will be playing without rest and it's 5-8 ATS this season in that situation (compared to 29-18 ATS when rested).

However, Portland will not only be rested for its other three games, but it will also be playing with revenge from home losses earlier this season to those opponents (Knicks, Raptors, Pistons). And Portland is 6-0 ATS its last six games, and 10-2 ATS its last 12 when rested and playing with revenge.

Totals watch

Kawhi Leonard, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, missed San Antonio's first three games after the All-Star Break due to a calf injury. And the Spurs struggled on defense in those three games. San Antonio gave up 105 to the Clippers (50.0 FG%), 113 to the Lakers (49.4 FG%) and 111 to the Suns (46.2 FG%).

Since Leonard's return, the Spurs have gone 3-0 SU/ATS, and held the Kings (92), Jazz (78) and Rockets (94), on average, to 15.7 ppg less than their scoring average. Not surprisingly, all three games stayed Under the total.

This week, the Spurs will play their first home game (Wednesday, vs. Detroit) following their eight-game rodeo road trip. And the Spurs have gone 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS and 5-8 Over/Under in their first game back at home following their “Rodeo Trip”.

After that, the Spurs will hit the road Thursday for a game at New Orleans, before coming back home for another game vs. Sacramento. And the last three meetings (and six of the last eight) between the Kings and Spurs have gone Under the total

Injury watch

Nuggets small forward Danilo Gallinari injured his ankle in Friday's loss to Dallas, and is expected to miss upwards of four weeks. This is really bad news for a Denver team which still has hopes for making a run at the eighth playoff spot out West.

Gallinari has been Denver's best player this season, as he has a 19.29 PER, and is averaging 19.5 ppg and 5.3 rpg. Unfortunately, Denver got a glimpse in December at what life without Gallo would be like. In the six games he missed earlier this season, Denver went 1-5 SU and 2-3-1 ATS, with its only victory against the dreadful Phoenix Suns.

If there is a silver lining, it's that Denver's first four games without Gallinari will all be at home, and all against beatable opponents (Grizzlies, Lakers, Nets, Mavericks). Its game versus Memphis Monday looks to be the best of the bunch to play on the Nuggets.

Not only is Denver 5-1 ATS its last six home games vs. Memphis, but it will be Memphis' third game in four nights. And the Nuggets are 128-84 ATS at home when rested and matched up against non-division foes playing their third game in four nights.

Schedule watch

This season, Commissioner Adam Silver's intent was to make the schedule much less taxing for NBA players. Back-to-backs were reduced 7.8 percent, while four-games-in-five-nights were reduced 60.8 percent. The result has been fascinating, to say the least.

NBA teams have actually been terrific this season when playing without rest in either their fourth game in five nights or fifth game in seven nights (against opponents not in such a situation). They're 43-20-1 ATS, including 16-4 ATS at home. And it makes perfect sense. With a less grueling schedule, the players are more rested, generally. So, when they’ve faced a difficult schedule this season, they've been able to overcome it and outperform expectations.

This week, three teams will play their fifth game in seven nights without rest: Orlando (Wednesday), Portland (Wednesday) and Miami (Friday). Of the three, Orlando (vs. Chicago) would rate as my favorite, as it will be playing at home.

**Udog** · 03-01-2016, 07:48 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, March 1

Phoenix @ Charlotte

Game 501-502
March 1, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
107.561
Charlotte
122.950
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 15 1/2
200
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 13
205 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(-13); Under

Portland @ New York

Game 503-504
March 1, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
122.462
New York
114.997
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 7 1/2
201
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 4
207 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(-4); Under

Chicago @ Miami

Game 505-506
March 1, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
114.207
Miami
124.303
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 9 1/2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
N/A

Orlando @ Dallas

Game 507-508
March 1, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
114.767
Dallas
117.422
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 5 1/2
212
Dunkel Pick:
Orlando
(+5 1/2); Over

Brooklyn @ LA Lakers

Game 509-510
March 1, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brooklyn
111.693
LA Lakers
115.154
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 3 1/2
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 1 1/2
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-1 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Golden State

Game 511-512
March 1, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
116.669
Golden State
130.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 14
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 11 1/2
225
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-11 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 03-01-2016, 07:49 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 1

Hot teams
-- Charlotte won eight of last 11 games (4-6 last 10HF).
-- Portland won its last eight games (4-3AF).
-- Miami won 10 of its last 15 games (4-7 last 11HF).
-- Dallas won three of last four games (8-4 last 12HF).
-- Nets are 4-4 in last eight games (6-2 against the spread).
-- Warriors won last five games (3-6 last 9HF). Atlanta won its last two games, by 5-11 points (1-3 last 4AU).

Cold teams
-- Suns lost 13 of last 14 games (0-9 last 9AU).
-- Knicks lost 10 of their last 12 games (1-5 last 6HU).
-- Bulls lost nine of their last 13 games (2-6 last 8AU).
-- Orlando lost eight of last ten road games (3-1 last 4AU).
-- Lakers lost their last eight games (5-3 last 8HU).

Series records
-- Suns won seven of last eight games with Charlotte.
-- Knicks lost six of last seven games with Portland.
-- Visiting team won last four Chicago-Miami games.
-- Mavericks won seven of last eight games with Orlando.
-- Lakers lost three of last four games with Brooklyn.
-- Warriors won seven of last eight games with Atlanta.

Totals
-- Four of last five Phoenix road games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Portland games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Orlando road games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in Brooklyn's last ten road games.
-- Five of last seven Golden State home games went over.

Back/backs
-- Nets are 6-4 vs spread if they played the night before.

**Udog** · 03-01-2016, 07:51 AM

NBA

Tuesday, March 1

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Phoenix's last 12 games when playing Charlotte
Phoenix is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
Charlotte is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Phoenix
Charlotte is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Phoenix

7:30 PM
PORTLAND vs. NEW YORK
Portland is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against New York
Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New York's last 9 games at home
New York is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

7:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. MIAMI
Chicago is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Chicago is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

8:30 PM
ORLANDO vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Orlando's last 10 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Orlando's last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

10:30 PM
BROOKLYN vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Brooklyn's last 17 games
Brooklyn is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
LA Lakers are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing Brooklyn
LA Lakers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games

10:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 03-01-2016, 09:07 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 1

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PHOENIX (15 - 44) at CHARLOTTE (30 - 28) - 3/1/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in road games this season.
PHOENIX is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
PHOENIX is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
CHARLOTTE is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in home games in March games since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 146-187 ATS (-59.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 4-1 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 4-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (32 - 28) at NEW YORK (25 - 36) - 3/1/2016, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
NEW YORK is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 48-66 ATS (-24.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 4-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (30 - 28) at MIAMI (33 - 26) - 3/1/2016, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-4 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-4 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (26 - 32) at DALLAS (32 - 28) - 3/1/2016, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
DALLAS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (17 - 43) at LA LAKERS (11 - 49) - 3/1/2016, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
BROOKLYN is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 27-42 ATS (-19.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 50-75 ATS (-32.5 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 160-202 ATS (-62.2 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 143-184 ATS (-59.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 122-159 ATS (-52.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 56-87 ATS (-39.7 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 3-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 3-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (33 - 27) at GOLDEN STATE (53 - 5) - 3/1/2016, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 03-01-2016, 09:45 AM

NBA

Tuesday, March 1

Phoenix is 0-9 against the spread in its last nine games following a victory.

The Golden State Warriors may be forced to tangle with the Hawks without PG Stephen Curry, who is questionable with an ankle injury.

Miami has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games against conference foes.

**Udog** · 03-01-2016, 02:11 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, March 1

Phoenix at Charlotte, 7:05 ET
Phoenix: 7-15 ATS in non-conference games
Charlotte: 14-5 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent

Portland at New York, 7:05 ET
Portland: 19-6 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog
New York: 4-14 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points

Chicago at Miami, 7:35 ET
Chicago: 1-10 ATS against Southeast division opponents
Miami: 5-2 ATS after a game outrebounding opponent by 15 or more

Orlando at Dallas, 8:35 ET
Orlando: 15-6 ATS in non-conference games
Dallas: 11-24 ATS after 2 or more consecutive overs

Brooklyn at LA Lakers, 10:35 ET
Brooklyn: 10-2 ATS in road games in non-conference games
LA Lakers: 9-22 ATS at home after allowing 110 pts or more 2 straight games

Atlanta at Golden State, 10:35 ET
Atlanta: 2-4 ATS against Pacific division opponents
Golden State: 10-1 ATS off a road win by 3 points or less

Announcement

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/1

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/1

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