The Bum's March NCAABB Conference Playoffs Thru The Madness Picks-Trends-News-Stats !!

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Thursday, March 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:00 PM
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. AKRON
No trends available
Akron is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Akron's last 6 games when playing Eastern Michigan

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 12:00 PM
RICHMOND vs. FORDHAM
No trends available
Fordham is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Fordham is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Richmond

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 12:00 PM
NORTHWESTERN vs. MICHIGAN
No trends available
Michigan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Northwestern

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 12:30 PM
BAYLOR vs. TEXAS
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Texas's last 11 games when playing Baylor
Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baylor

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 1:00 PM
ARKANSAS vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games when playing Arkansas
Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arkansas

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 2:30 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Central Michigan's last 8 games
Central Michigan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 2:30 PM
BUTLER vs. PROVIDENCE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Providence's last 6 games when playing Butler
Providence is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 3:00 PM
UC DAVIS vs. SANTA BARBARA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Santa Barbara's last 9 games when playing UC Davis
Santa Barbara is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing UC Davis

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 3:30 PM
SOUTH FLORIDA vs. EAST CAROLINA
No trends available
East Carolina is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing South Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of East Carolina's last 6 games when playing South Florida

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 5:00 PM
UMKC vs. UTAH VALLEY
No trends available
Utah Valley is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing UMKC
Utah Valley is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 5:30 PM
CS FULLERTON vs. HAWAII
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Hawaii's last 10 games when playing CS Fullerton
Hawaii is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing CS Fullerton

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 5:30 PM
NEVADA vs. NEW MEXICO
No trends available
New Mexico is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
New Mexico is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 6:00 PM
TULANE vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
No trends available
Central Florida is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Central Florida's last 8 games when playing Tulane

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 6:00 PM
SOUTH ALABAMA vs. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
No trends available
Georgia Southern is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing South Alabama
Georgia Southern is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing South Alabama

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 6:30 PM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. OHIO
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio's last 5 games
Ohio is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 6:30 PM
MASSACHUSETTS vs. RHODE ISLAND
No trends available
Rhode Island is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Rhode Island's last 9 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 6:30 PM
PENN STATE vs. OHIO STATE
No trends available
Ohio State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ohio State's last 8 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 7:00 PM
ALABAMA vs. MISSISSIPPI
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Mississippi's last 22 games
Mississippi is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 7:30 PM
CHICAGO STATE vs. CS BAKERSFIELD
No trends available
CS Bakersfield is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago State
CS Bakersfield is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 8:30 PM
TEXAS STATE vs. GEORGIA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Georgia State's last 6 games when playing Texas State
Georgia State is 2-12-1 ATS in its last 15 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 9:00 PM
MIAMI (OHIO) vs. BUFFALO
No trends available
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami (Ohio)
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 9:00 PM
CAL POLY vs. UC IRVINE
No trends available
UC Irvine is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cal Poly
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UC Irvine's last 7 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 9:25 PM
MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. GEORGIA
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Georgia's last 10 games when playing Mississippi State

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 9:30 PM
IOWA STATE vs. OKLAHOMA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma's last 5 games
Oklahoma is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Iowa State

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 9:30 PM
CREIGHTON vs. SETON HALL
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seton Hall's last 5 games when playing Creighton
Seton Hall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 10:00 PM
TEXAS-PAN AMERICAN vs. SEATTLE
No trends available
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Texas-Pan American

See more trends!
MARCH 10, 11:30 PM
UC RIVERSIDE vs. LONG BEACH STATE
No trends available
Long Beach State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Long Beach State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing UC Riverside

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Notebook
March 10, 2016

-- Florida (18-13 straight up, 14-14-1 against the spread) and Arkansas will square off today at 1:00 p.m. Eastern in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. This is the 8/9 game with the winner advancing to face top-seeded Texas A&M at the same time early Friday afternoon. With four losses in its last five regular-season games, Mike White’s team needs to win at least two, and probably three, games to get an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament.

-- Those optimistic hopes were diminished Tuesday when starting sophomore center John Egbunu sustained a torn ligament in his right thumb. He has been fitted for a brace but is nonetheless listed as ‘doubtful’ against the Razorbacks. Egbunu averages 11.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. The transfer from South Florida scored 27 points against Kentucky on March 1 and 22 points at LSU on Feb. 27. I made this number UF -3.5, but that was before the news of Egbunu’s injury leaked out Wednesday afternoon. The Westgate SuperBook opened the Gators as 2.5-point favorites and considering the injury, I agree with the number.

-- Arkansas (16-15 SU, 15-12 ATS) had won four in a row going into its regular-season finale at home this past Saturday vs. South Carolina. The Gamecocks had been struggling and were down their best player, Michael Carrera. However, none of that mattered as the Gamecocks went into Bud Walton Arena and dominated in a 76-61 win as 6.5-point underdogs. When Mike Anderson’s squad went to Gainesville this year, the Hogs lost an 87-83 decision at UF but took the money as 7.5-point underdogs. The SEC Network will have the telecast.

-- In the opener of the night session in Nash’Vegas, Alabama and Ole Miss will meet with the Rebels favored by three. The Crimson Tide has thrived in the underdog role this season, compiling a 12-7 spread record with nine outright victories. These teams met in Oxford on Jan. 7 with Andy Kennedy’s team collecting a 74-66 win as a 5.5-point home favorite.

-- Georgia has won three in a row both SU and ATS, including last week’s win at South Carolina to sweep the season series from USC. If UGA can beat Mississippi St. in a 6/11 matchup tonight at 9:30 p.m. Eastern, it’ll get a third shot at the Gamecocks at the same time Friday night. UGA and MSU is listed as a pick ‘em. They squared off once this year at The Hump in Starkville, with Mark Fox’s team capturing a 66-57 win as a four-point road underdog. UGA hit +160 money-line payouts for his backers.

-- Creighton and Seton Hall will collide tonight at around 9:30 p.m. Eastern in the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden in NYC. As of early this morning, most books had the Pirates installed as three-point favorites with a total of 146. Kevin Willard’s squad owns an incredible 16-5 spread record in its last 21 games. When it hosted Creighton on Jan. 9, I ignorantly backed Seton Hall -4.5 and took a fat loser when the Bluejays dominated in an 82-67 victory. In the rematch in Omaha, the Pirates exacted revenge in a 75-65 triumph as 5.5-point underdogs.

-- Like the Creighton-Seton Hall matchup, Butler and Providence will air on Fox Sports 1 at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. As of early this a.m., most spots had the Bulldogs favored by 3.5 points with a total of 146. They have won seven of their last nine games while cashing tickets at a frenetic 8-1 ATS clip. However, the Friars swept the season series from Butler. The ‘over’ has hit in five straight for the Bulldogs.

-- Texas center Cameron Ridley is expected to be a game-time decision for today’s early Big 12 Tournament tilt against Baylor. Most spots had the Bears favored by one early this morning.

-- Oklahoma is a three-point favorite vs. Iowa State for a 9:30 p.m. Eastern tip tonight on ESPNU. The ‘under’ has cashed in eight consecutive games for the Sooners, who lost 82-77 in Ames but beat the Cyclones 87-83 in Norman.

-- USC smashed UCLA for a third straight time this year last night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. The Bruins will miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2012 and the first time on Steve Alford’s watch. The Trojans advance to face Utah tonight. The Utes have won seven in a row while posting a 5-2 spread record. They have seen the ‘under’ cash in four straight.

-- Tennessee crushed Auburn in Nashville last night, easily covering the number as a short ‘chalk.’ The Volunteers advance to face Vanderbilt tonight.

-- After TCU stunned Texas Tech as a 7.5-point underdog last night at the Big 12 Tournament, most books sent out West Virginia as a 16-point favorite for the opening line vs. the Horned Frogs tonight.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Action
March 10, 2016


BAYLOR BEARS (21-10) vs. TEXAS LONGHORNS (20-11)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Baylor -1, Total: 138

Two Top 25 teams collide when No. 22 Baylor looks to knock off No. 23 Texas for the second time this season and move on in the Big 12 tournament.

Baylor (10-14-1 ATS) comes into Thursday’s game having lost their last two to close out the season and three of their last four, most recently at home Saturday against West Virginia (69-58, Baylor -3). Coach Scott Drew must hope that 3+ days rest continues to be good to the Bears (15-3 SU on 3+ days).

Texas closed the season on a winning note at Oklahoma State (62-50, Texas -6.5) on Saturday. Coach Shaka Smart’s team will be looking to rebound from a drubbing at the hands of Baylor in Austin just weeks earlier (78-64, Texas -6) on Feb. 20th. Texas allowed the Bears to shoot 62.7% FG while only grabbing 22 rebounds in the loss. Texas actually drew first blood this season, going into Waco on Feb. 1st and winning 67-59 (Baylor -4.5), holding Baylor to 35.2% FG.

Literally big news for the Longhorns may alter their recent rebounding woes as injured C Cameron Ridley (12.7 PPG, 10 RPG), who hasn’t played since Dec. 19th with a broken foot, has now been cleared for basketball activities. While just days earlier reports were that he’d miss the Big 12 tournament, there is now a chance that Ridley could suit up as soon as Thursday’s game. Texas has only outrebounded one of their last six opponents.

Baylor and Texas are both knotted up at 5 games apiece (5-5 ATS) over their last 10 meetings, with Thursday’s game being the rubber match between the two this season. Baylor and Texas last met in Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament in March of 2014, with the Bears rolling, 86-69 (Baylor +1.5). Baylor is 4-1 ATS over their last five against Texas.

In total trends, the OVER has been hit in 8 of the last 11 games that Baylor and Texas have met.

Baylor can beat you in a variety of ways. They’re not a terrible three point shooting team (38.1% 3PT) but they don’t shoot the long ball often (16.4 3PA), as coach Drew’s club plays to their strengths: sharing the ball and crashing the glass. The Bears average 17.6 assists per game (5th NCAA) and grab 40% of all available offensive rebounds (3rd NCAA).

On defense, Baylor’s best weapon is that gaudy offensive rebounding, as they only allow 29.2 total rebounds per game (2nd NCAA). The Bears also post gaudy steal numbers (7.8 SPG, 20th NCAA). So why do the Bears only have a so-so scoring defense (69.9 PPG)? Baylor unfortunately succumbs to teams that can move the ball (17.7 APG, 347th NCAA), which leads to easy shots and kills their defensive percentages (45% FGA; 37.6% 3PA).

F Taurean Prince (15.5 PPG, 6 RPG) leads four double-figure scorers for the Bears. Prince fancies himself as a playmaker, and is definitely a consistent scorer (14 straight in double-figures), but has a tendency to force the action a bit, which can make him turnover prone (2.7 TO/G). Prince’s turnover mark is more per game than Baylor’s primary ball handler, G Lester Medford (9.3 PPG, 6.8 APG), who’d be more recognized for his steady assist-to-turnover ratio if he didn’t play in the same conference as Iowa State’s Monte Morris.

On Feb. 1st against Texas, F Rico Gathers (11.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG) would go on to score 20 points and grab 8 rebounds in a loss to the Longhorns. Gathers hasn’t scored in double-figures again this season, having been battling health issues and playing limited minutes. Nobody quite knows what version of Gathers the Bears will get on Thursday; will it be the brute who averaged 11.7 RPG last season, or the player who’s been a shell of himself for the last month and not in basketball shape?

F Johnathan Motley (11 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is another x-factor for Baylor, as he proved with 24 points on 12-13 FG in the Bears’ win over the Longhorns. Unfortunately Motley has been plagued by effort and foul issues throughout his career and comes off of a combined two points and eight rebounds over Baylor’s last two games.

Given the uncertainty around Ridley’s possible return, it’s hard to say how coach Smart’s rotation will shake out for Thursday’s game, but Baylor is the perfect opponent to have Ridley available for. Countering the Bears’ efficiency in the paint will go a long way toward helping Texas duplicate the success they had in Waco, while preventing Baylor from shooting 60% FG or better as they did more recently against the Longhorns.

G Isaiah Taylor (15 PPG, 4.8 APG) is the focal point of this Texas team, but he’s struggled mightily from the field to close the season (11-39 FG over last three games). While the three-point shot isn’t a main part of his arsenal, Taylor’s only hit once from long distance in his past seven games (1-10). Taylor did have a season-high nine assists in Texas’ win over Baylor.

F Connor Lammert (6.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) also tied a season high as he scored 15 (5-7 FG, 3-4 3PT) in the early February win over Baylor. Lammert is struggling with his shot lately though, going 3-13 FG (2-11 3PT) in his last two games.

In Texas’ season-closing win on Saturday, freshman G Kerwin Roach Jr. (7.4 PPG) would lead the Longhorns over Oklahoma State with 15 points and 6 rebounds, but is an inconsistent offensive option for coach Smart.

Steady senior G Javan Felix (11 PPG) provides experience and a history of clutch shooting, but has shied away from his strength (perimeter shooting) as of late, going only 1-2 combined from three over his last three games. This game against Baylor will most likely come down to whether Texas can hold off the Bears on the glass and stop them from easy buckets in the paint.

IOWA ST CYCLONES (21-10) vs. OKLAHOMA SOONERS (24-6)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Oklahoma -3, Total: 160.5

No. 21 Iowa State and No. 6 Oklahoma meet for the third time this season, this time with a Big 12 tournament semifinal berth at stake.

Iowa State versus Oklahoma has produced two great games this season, the margin of victory in both games combining for less than 10 points. The home team won each matchup, Oklahoma (12-16 ATS) defeated Iowa State (87-83, OU -6.5) in Norman on Jan. 2, while the Cyclones (14-13-1 ATS) took out the Sooners (82-77, ISU -2) on Jan. 18th in Ames.

After a lackluster performance in beating Oklahoma State, 58-50 (ISU -11) on Feb. 29th, Iowa State had a weeks’ worth of preparation for Tuesday’s game at Kansas, but couldn’t pull off the upset of the No. 1 team in the country as they fell 85-78 (ISU +11.5). The Cyclones have covered in only two of their last six games.

These two teams met last season in Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament, with Iowa State rallying from 11 down and surviving a missed layup at the buzzer for a 67-65 win (ISU -1). The Cyclones would go on to win the conference tournament last season. Iowa State is 6-4 SU (6-4 ATS) in the past 10 games against Oklahoma and the Cyclones have covered each of the past four.

Both of these squads have had great offenses in recent years, and therefore the total for this matchup is usually quite high. However, the total has been UNDER in six of the past eight games between the Sooners and Cyclones. Oklahoma’s team total has also been UNDER in each of their last five regular season games to close out 2016.

For all of Iowa State’s star power, boasting arguably the best frontcourt player in the conference (F Georges Niang – 19.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and best point guard in the conference (G Monte Morris – 14.2 PPG, 7.1 APG, 1.7 TO), the best news for coach Steve Prohm’s club going into the postseason is that they’re getting a productive Jameel McKay (11.8 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.8 BPG) when they need him most.

McKay, their erstwhile senior rim-protector, allows Iowa State not to be a defensive sieve when he’s on the floor. The big man’s troubles with ineffectiveness and an in-season suspension have been well documented, as McKay hadn’t scored double-figures in a game from Jan. 16 until Feb. 22nd (11 games). McKay would struggle off the bench after suspensions and limited playing time reduced his effectiveness, as Iowa State would slump to 3-3 with McKay playing limited minutes. Over Iowa State’s final three games, McKay looked rejuvenated (13 PPG, 12 RPG) and minutes followed. The Cyclones would close out the season 2-1, their only loss in a hard fought defeat at Kansas where McKay put up 19 points and 9 rebounds.
Iowa State actually has a better scoring offense than the vaunted Sooners attack (82 PPG, 13th NCAA) and is second in the nation in shooting (50.3% FG). The Cyclones get their scoring from the field, making more shots per game than anyone else in the country (31.2 FGM) to offset their lack of free throw opportunities (16 FTA/game, 334th NCAA). Iowa State shoots 37.9% from deep and hits a solid 8.2 threes per game, as Matt Thomas (10.6 PPG, 43% 3PT) has been a consistent weapon from beyond the arc since taking over for injured Naz Long in December.

Niang, as you’d expect, has been brilliant in his senior season, scoring double-figures in every game including a 25.5 PPG average against Oklahoma (2 games). Mercurial offensive threats in F Abdel Nader (13.2 PPG) and G Deonte Burton (10 PPG) have both been effective against Oklahoma this season; Nader having scored 20 points in the home win over the Sooners on Jan. 18th, while Burton broke out with 19 points in 20 minutes in the road loss at Norman.

The supposed demise of coach Lon Kruger’s club that relies so much on perimeter shooting and the brilliance of G Buddy Hield (25.1 PPG, 49.5% FG, 47.3% 3PT) has been bandied about for over a month now, as the former No. 1 team in the land couldn’t possibly shoot like the Golden State Warriors over the course of a whole season. Yes, the Sooners have regressed, but they also are a sorely underrated defensive club (40.3% FG, 10.6 APG, 5.2 BPG, 17 fouls/game – all numbers that are top-40 in the nation).

Yet, the Sooners have big issues on the offensive glass, giving up 10 offensive boards per game, which leads to unsightly FGA/game numbers on defense (63.3 FGA, 333rd NCAA) and raises their PPG allowed to a mediocre 70.3 (128th NCAA).

Even with their late-season shooting slump, Oklahoma is still the best Power Six team from beyond the arc in the country (43% 3PT, 2nd NCAA) and they make 10.6 threes per game to boot. The Sooners shot 57% from the line and got outrebounded by 11 in their loss to Iowa State on Jan 18th, even though they shot 53% from three. Oddly enough, Oklahoma didn’t hit their shooting averages (42.7% FG, 37.9% 3PT) in their win over Iowa State on Jan. 2nd, but did hit their free throws to close out the game (85.7%) and rebounded with the Cyclones (40-39).

F Ryan Spangler (10.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG) is the only interior threat for Oklahoma, as he has the ability to go inside-out on offense and is their leading rebounder by a wide margin. Spangler shined with 20 points and 12 rebounds in the Jan. 2 win, but was invisible with 2 points and 6 rebounds in the most recent loss. Fair or not, Spangler’s performance has been the barometer for this matchup dating back to last season’s Big 12 tournament game, where the 6-foot-8 forward missed an open layup at the buzzer to potentially send this matchup into overtime.

G Jordan Woodard (12.9 PPG, 44% 3PT) and G Isaiah Cousins (13 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.4 APG), so spectacular as Hield’s running mates through February, have really lost some steam down the stretch, as Cousins is averaging 9 points on 28.9% FG in his last four and Woodard is also only averaging 9 points while turning it over 2.5 times per game (versus only 1.8 assists).

BUTLER BULLDOGS (21-9) vs. PROVIDENCE FRIARS (22-9)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Butler -3.5, Total: 146.5

Providence and Butler meet in the Big East tournament quarterfinals as they look to secure a bid to the Big Dance.

The prospects of earning high seeds in the NCAA tournament were promising for both Butler and Providence when they first met this season on New Year's Eve, when the No. 12 Friars outscored the No. 9 Bulldogs by 19 points in the second half en route to an 81-73 win (Butler -7.5) in Indianapolis.

As is often the case, Providence was led by G Kris Dunn (16.3 PPG, 6.4 APG, 5.7 RPG, 2.7 SPG)—the reigning Big East Player of the Year and a projected Top 5 pick in this June's NBA draft—as the junior guard put up 20 points, nine assists and seven boards in the road win. Dunn was held to nine points in the January 19 rematch, but that didn't stop the No. 16 Friars from pulling off another come-from-behind victory over the No. 18 Bulldogs, this time by a score of 81-78 (Butler -1).

These days, the outlook is slightly less rosy for both programs, as each is no longer ranked. Butler, in particular, will need a victory in Wednesday's Big East tournament quarterfinal to ensure an at-large bid to the Big Dance.

After a 1-5 stretch in February (0-6 ATS), Providence bounced back to win three straight games (3-0 ATS) to end its regular season at 22-9 (16-14 ATS) and earn a four seed for the Big East tournament. Key wins include a 69-65 victory against now-No. 15 Arizona (Zona -5.5) and a six-point road triumph over possible No. 1 seed Villanova (Nova -12.5).

Butler, the tournament's five seed, enters the matchup having won seven of nine (8-1 ATS) and boasting an overall record of 21-9 (16-12-2 ATS). The Bulldogs have not made a habit of taking down big-time opponents this year, but a December win over Purdue (Purdue -4.5) that gave the Boilermakers their first loss of the season stands out as particularly impressive.

Dunn is not only the leader for the Friars; he is one of college basketball's foremost stars. While Dunn receives the most attention of anyone on the team from national media, he's joined this year by teammate F Ben Bentil (21.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG) as an anonymous First Team All-Big East selection.

Bentil, a sophomore from Ghana, came out of nowhere to lead the Big East in scoring and finished fifth in the conference in rebounds per game. He has also averaged 25.2 PPG in the Friars' last five contests, while Dunn has averaged 12.6 points per game over the same stretch. While the Friars may be able to escape Butler with only one member of the duo putting up big numbers, both players will have to be firing on all cylinders if Providence plans on making a serious run at the conference title.

Joining Dunn and Bentil in double-digit points-per-game scoring is F Rodney Bullock (11.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG). Bullock played a key role in each of Providence's wins over Butler this season, averaging 20.5 PPG and 9 RPG in the two contests. All in all, though, the Friars’ offense is not particularly strong, ranking seventh in the Big East with 74.2 PPG, and its .475 FG percentage is next to last in the 10-team conference.

The Friars are led on defense by Dunn, a hounding perimeter defender who is now a two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year. With a scoring defense of 69.8 points allowed per game, good for third in the Big East, the Friars' defense can be considered better than their offense. Their rebounding margin of +0.2, however, is worse than all other teams in the conference, save for lowly St. John's.

Butler, for its part, enters the postseason averaging 81.3 points per game, the most in the Big East and 17th in the nation. Its scoring margin, too, trumps the Friars', as the Bulldogs' +10.2 is 30th nationally, while Providence comes in at 112th with +4.3.

The Bulldogs get much of their scoring from senior G Kellen Dunham (16.2 PPG) and sophomore F Kelan Martin (16.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG). Dunham was snubbed for this year's All-Big East team after being selected each of the past two seasons, but he's been no slouch when it comes to scoring: He's shooting a career-best 43.6 percent from the field and a deadly 41.4 percent from deep.

Martin saw his playing time nearly double this year, and his solid, shorter build and versatile play from the small forward position remind some of Draymond Green in his Michigan State days. He's stepped up his scoring production toward the end of the season, putting up 19.7 PPG since the start of February.

Alongside Martin on the All-Big East team is 6'4" senior F Roosevelt Jones (14.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.5 SPG), who has made a habit of stuffing all areas of the stat sheet. If he were he averaging .2 more points per game, he'd be in the Top 10 in the Big East in scoring, passing and rebounding.

On defense, the Bulldogs surrender an average of 71.1 PPG, putting them in the middle of the pack in the Big East. That number may be overly flattering, though, as the team has been criticized at various points throughout the season for poor defensive effort, particularly in games away from home. Sophomore F Tyler Wideman (7.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.6 BPG) holds things down in the paint. He’s fourth in the Big East in blocks per game—but he's also second in fouls.

[StarDust Bum]

yesterday: 14 - 6

ytd : 79- 62

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, MARCH 10

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


EMU at AKR 12:00 PM

EMU +5.0


NW at MICH 12:00 PM

MICH -3.5


PITT at UNC 12:00 PM

UNC -7.5

O 149.5


RICH at FOR 12:00 PM

FOR +5.0


GTWN at VILL 12:00 PM

VILL -11.0


BAY at TEX 12:30 PM

TEX +0.0


ARK at FLA 01:00 PM

ARK +3.5


WKU at UAB 01:00 PM

UAB -6.0

[StarDust Bum]

DUKE at ND 02:00 PM

DUKE -2.5


ILL at IOWA 02:25 PM

ILL +10.5


BGSU at CMU 02:30 PM

CMU -6.0

O 148.0


SLU at GW 02:30 PM

SLU +14.0

BUT at PROV 02:30 PM

PROV +4.0


KSU at KU 02:30 PM

KU -12.0

[StarDust Bum]

TENN at VAN 03:00 PM

VAN -11.0


UCD at UCSB 03:00 PM

UCSB -8.0


USU at SDSU 03:00 PM

SDSU -7.5


WASH at ORE 03:00 PM

ORE -8.0


PRST at WEB 03:00 PM

WEB -8.5


ODU at LT 03:30 PM

ODU -2.5


PV at JKST 03:30 PM

PV +6.0

[StarDust Bum]

USF at ECU 03:30 PM

ECU -3.5

UMKC at UVU 05:00 PM

UVU +2.0


NEV at UNM 05:30 PM

UNM -3.5


CSF at HAW 05:30 PM

CSF +11.5


COLO at ARIZ 05:30 PM

COLO +7.5


UND at IDST 05:30 PM

UND -2.5


USA at GASO 06:00 PM

GASO -4.0


SELA at HBU 06:00 PM

SELA +1.5


TULN at UCF 06:00 PM

UCF -4.5


COPP at SCST 06:00 PM

COPP +5.5


NIU at OHIO 06:30 PM

OHIO -3.5


MASS at URI 06:30 PM

URI -7.5


PSU at OSU 06:30 PM

OSU -5.5

[StarDust Bum]

MARQ at XAV 07:00 PM

XAV -10.0



ALA at MISS 07:00 PM

MISS -2.5


CHAR at MTU 07:00 PM

CHAR +3.5


GT at UVA 07:00 PM

UVA -10.0


CHS at CSB 07:30 PM

CSB -18.5


NEB at WIS 08:30 PM

WIS -6.0


NICH at SHSU 08:30 PM

NICH +10.0


CSUS at MONT 08:30 PM

CSUS +8.5


SAV at COOK 08:30 PM

COOK -1.0


TXST at GSU 08:30 PM

GSU -2.5

[StarDust Bum]

M-OH at BUFF 09:00 PM

M-OH +6.0


CP at UCI 09:00 PM

UCI -6.5


MSST at UGA 09:00 PM

MSST +2.0


ISU at OKLA 09:00 PM

ISU +4.5


UNLV at FRES 09:00 PM

FRES -3.0


USC at UTAH 09:00 PM

UTAH -6.5


VT at MIA 09:00 PM

VT +9.5


LAS at DAV 09:00 PM

LAS +11.0

O 147.0


ALST at SOU 09:30 PM

SOU -2.0


CRE at HALL 09:30 PM

HALL -1.5


UTEP at MRSH 09:30 PM

MRSH -5.5

O 176.0

[StarDust Bum]

UTRGV at SEA 10:00 PM

SEA -6.5


EWU at IDHO 11:00 PM

IDHO +1.5


UCRV at LBSU 11:30 PM

LBSU -8.0


ORST at CAL 11:30 PM

CAL -8.0


CSU at BSU 11:30 PM

CSU +7.0

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Trends and Angles
March 10, 2016


Indianapolis, IN

Overall Betting Results
Favorites/Underdogs: 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS
Over/Under: 4-2

Friday, Mar. 11

QUARTERFINALS

Matchup Records Skinny Projection


No. 1 Indiana
Overall: 25-6 SU, 17-14 ATS
Totals: 15-16 O/U

No. 8 Michigan
Overall: 21-11 SU, 15-15 ATS
Totals: 19-10 O/U

No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 8 Michigan (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Indiana (15-3 Big 10) closed out the regular season conference championship with five consecutive victories, capped off by an 80-62 blowout of Maryland in the finale. The Hoosiers won six of nine games away from Bloomington in Big 10 play, including an 80-67 rout of Michigan as two-point road underdogs on February 2. Indiana has won three of its past four Big 10 tournament openers since 2012, including a pair of covers as double-digit favorites in 2012 and 2013. Michigan (11-8 Big 10) held off Northwestern in overtime on Thursday, 72-70 to pick up just its second win in the last six games (both against the Wildcats). The Wolverines compiled a 1-4 ATS record as an underdog in conference play, while covering just once in seven tries as a ‘dog this season.

Indiana 82
Michigan 75



No. 4 Purdue
Overall: 24-7 SU, 15-11-1 ATS
Totals: 14-13-1 O/U

No. 12 Illinois
Overall: 13-18 SU, 12-14-3 ATS
Totals: 15-16-1 O/U
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 12 Illinois (ESPN, 2:30 p.m. ET)

Illinois (7-13 Big 10) won just five games in conference play, but found a way to grab a pair of victories over Minnesota and Iowa to advance to the Big 10 quarterfinals. The Fighting Illini stunned the Hawkeyes as 10 ½-point underdogs in a wire-to-wire 68-66 triumph on Thursday to extend their season. Illinois covered as a ‘dog for just the fifth time in 13 tries against conference opponents, but improved to 6-3 ATS in the last nine games overall. The Fighting Illini upset Purdue as nine-point home underdogs back in January, 84-70, as Illinois won just three home games against conference foes. Purdue (12-6 Big 10) was one of four teams that finished with 12 conference victories in the Big 10, while picking up key home wins down the stretch over Maryland and Wisconsin. Since 2011, the Boilermakers own a 2-5 record in the last seven Big 10 tournament contests.

Purdue 74
Illinois 67


No. 2 Michigan State
Overall: 26-5 SU, 21-9 ATS
Totals: 16-14 O/U

No. 7 Ohio State
Overall: 20-12 SU, 16-14-1 ATS
Totals: 16-15-1 O/U
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 7 Ohio State (Big Ten, 6:30 p.m. ET)

For the second time in less than a week, Ohio State and Michigan State hook up. Last Saturday, the Spartans (13-5 Big 10) stayed red-hot by beating the Buckeyes, 91-76 to win for the 10th time in the last 11 games. Michigan State is on a remarkable 11-0 ATS run, while laying at least seven points in each of the past six contests. The Spartans captured both regular season matchups with the Buckeyes, winning in Columbus, 81-62 as seven-point favorites on February 23. Ohio State (11-8 Big 10) rallied past Penn State on Wednesday, 79-75 to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive, but the Buckeyes failed to cover to drop to 4-6 ATS in the last 10 games overall. Since winning the Big 10 tournament in 2013, OSU owns a 1-5 ATS record in the past six conference tournament contests.

Michigan State 82
Ohio State 71



No. 3 Maryland
Overall: 24-7 SU, 13-16-1 ATS
Totals: 11-18-1 O/U


No. 11 Nebraska
Overall: 16-17 SU, 16-12 ATS
Totals: 16-11
No. 3 Maryland vs. No. 11 Nebraska (Big Ten, 9:00 p.m. ET)
---
TBD
TBD

[StarDust Bum]

B]ACC Trends and Angles
March 10, 2016

Venue: Verizon Center - Washington, DC[/B]

Overall Betting Results
Favorites/Underdogs: 8-2 SU, 3-6-1 ATS
Over/Under: 8-2

Friday, Mar. 11
SEMIFINALS

Matchup Records Skinny Projection

No. 1 North Carolina
Overall: 26-6 SU, 14-17-1 ATS
Totals: 17-15-1 O/U

No. 4 Notre Dame
Overall: 21-10 SU, 14-14-1 ATS
Totals: 15-14-1 O/U
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

It’s a rematch of last season’s ACC championship when Notre Dame outlasted North Carolina, 90-82 as 3 ½-point underdogs to claim the Fighting Irish’s first conference title since leaving the Big East in 2013. Notre Dame (12-7 ACC) looks to keep up its momentum from Thursday’s dramatic overtime triumph over Duke, 84-79 as the Irish erased a 16-point second half deficit. The Irish knocked off the Tar Heels in South Bend, 80-76 as 2 ½-point home ‘dogs in early February. North Carolina (15-4 ACC) cruised past Pittsburgh, 88-71 to easily cash as 7 ½-point chalk, while covering as a favorite for the fourth time in the last five opportunities. Following an 11-3 run to the ‘under,’ the Tar Heels eclipsed the ‘over’ of 150 ½ in Thursday’s victory over Pitt.


North Carolina 83
Notre Dame 78


No. 2 Virginia
Overall: 25-6 SU, 16-13 ATS
Totals: 11-18 O/U

No. 3 Miami, FL
Overall: 25-6 SU, 18-11-1 ATS
Totals: 14-16-1 O/U
No. 2 Virginia vs. No. 3 Miami, FL (ESPN, 9:30 p.m. ET)
---
TBD
TBD

[StarDust Bum]

SEC Trends and Angles
March 10, 2016

Venue: Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, TN

Overall Betting Results
Favorites/Underdogs: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS
Over/Under: 3-2

Friday, Mar. 11
QUARTERFINALS

Matchup Records Skinny Projection

No. 1 Texas A&M
Overall: 24-7 SU, 13-11-2 ATS
Totals: 10-16-2 O/U

No. 8 Florida
Overall: 19-13 SU, 15-14-1 ATS
Totals: 16-14-1 O/U
No. 1 Texas A&M vs. No. 8 Florida (SEC, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The top-seed in the SEC tournament takes the court on Friday as Texas A&M (13-5 SEC) is coming off its first regular season conference championship since joining the league. The Aggies began conference play with a sterling 8-1 record, but dropped four straight games to begin February. A&M finished strong with six consecutive victories, including home triumphs over Kentucky and Vanderbilt. The Aggies knocked off Florida in its lone meeting this season, 71-68, but failed to cash as six-point home favorites in January. The Gators advanced after defeating Arkansas, 68-61 on Wednesday to pick up their second straight win following a four-game skid. For the eighth straight season, Florida won its opening game in the SEC tournament, while Texas A&M owns a 1-3 record in the conference tourney since moving over from the Big 12 in 2012.

Texas A&M 68
Florida 60



No. 4 LSU
Overall: 18-13 SU, 10-18 ATS
Totals: 12-16 O/U

No. 12 Tennessee
Overall: 15-18 SU, 16-15-1 ATS
Totals: 12-17-1 O/U
No. 4 LSU vs. No. 12 Tennessee (SEC, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Tennessee (8-12 SEC) has come out of nowhere to play in the SEC quarterfinals after beating Auburn and Vanderbilt. One night after a 97-59 rout of Auburn, the Volunteers upset their cross-state rival by knocking off the Commodores, 67-65 to cash outright as 12-point underdogs. Tennessee is seeking its first three-game winning streak since late November, as the Vols didn’t even win back-to-back games in conference play prior to victories the last two days. LSU (11-7 SEC) is sitting on the NCAA tournament bubble after several questionable losses in non-conference play. The Tigers dropped four of six games down the stretch with the only wins coming at home against Florida and Missouri. LSU covered in just five of its final 17 games, which includes an 81-65 loss at Tennessee as three-point favorites on February 20.


LSU 71
Tennessee 70



No. 2 Kentucky
Overall: 23-8 SU, 15-16 ATS
Totals: 16-14 O/U

No. 10 Alabama
Overall: 18-13 SU, 15-14 ATS
Totals: 13-16 O/U
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Alabama (SEC, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Kentucky (13-5 SEC) came within two victories of finishing off an undefeated season in 2015, but the Wildcats fell short in the Final Four to Wisconsin. In spite of losing many key pieces, the Wildcats captured the second seed in the SEC tournament, while losing out on the top position thanks to losing the head-to-head tiebreaker with Texas A&M. UK won seven of its final nine games following back-to-back losses at Kansas and Tennessee, while posting a perfect 17-0 record at Rupp Arena. One of those home victories came against Alabama on February 23, as the Wildcats dominated the Crimson Tide, 78-53 to grab the season sweep. Alabama (9-10) took care of Ole Miss on Thursday, 81-73 to avenge an earlier loss in Oxford back in January. The Tide is sitting on the bubble but helped its cause with Thursday’s victory, while covering for the first time in six games. Alabama has profited in the role of an underdog since losing at home to Kentucky in January by posting an 8-3 ATS mark the last 11 when getting points.


Kentucky 81
Alabama 71



No. 3 South Carolina
Overall: 24-7 SU, 19-9 ATS
Totals: 13-15 O/U

No. 6 Georgia
Overall: 18-12 SU, 17-13 ATS
Totals: 17-13 O/U
No. 3 South Carolina vs. No. 6 Georgia (SEC, 9:30 p.m. ET)
---
TBD
TBD

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, MARCH 11

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

USF at TEM 12:00 PM

TEM -11.5


RICH at DAY 12:00 PM

DAY -4.5


MICH at IND 12:00 PM

IND -7.5


FLA at TAM 01:00 PM

FLA +4.0


UCONN at CIN 02:00 PM

CIN -2.0


ILL at PUR 02:00 PM

ILL +11.0


GW at JOES 02:30 PM

JOES -1.5


TENN at LSU 03:00 PM

LSU -4.5


MVSU at JKST 03:30 PM

MVSU +9.0