The Bum's March NCAABB Conference Playoffs Thru The Madness Picks-Trends-News-Stats !!

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, MARCH 6

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


HC at ARMY 12:00 PM

ARMY -7.5


SMU at CIN 12:00 PM

SMU +1.5

U 130.0


ILL at PSU 12:00 PM

ILL +4.0

U 135.0


CWM at HOF 01:00 PM

CWM +1.5


MILW at GB 01:00 PM

GB +3.0

[StarDust Bum]

TEM at TULN 02:00 PM

TEM -6.0


UCF at UCONN 02:00 PM

UCF +17.0


NEB at NW 02:00 PM

NW -4.5


UNI at EVAN 02:00 PM

UNI -1.5


AMER at LEH 02:00 PM

LEH -11.5


UNCA at WIN 02:30 PM

UNCA -2.0


DET at WRST 03:30 PM

WRST -1.5


NE at UNCW 03:30 PM

UNCW -3.0


MEM at ECU 04:00 PM

MEM -5.0

O 148.5


MD at IND 04:30 PM

MD +5.5

U 147.5


FAIR at MONM 04:30 PM

FAIR +8.5


WCU at CHAT 05:00 PM

WCU +8.0

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Picks: 20 - 24
YTD: 48 -45-1

Late games posted later........Good Luck......

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's WCC Tip Sheet
March 6, 2016

The 2016 West Coast Conference Tournament got underway this past weekend and so far it has gone right according to plan with the top four seeds advancing to Monday night’s semifinals in Las Vegas.

The first matchup pits No. 4 Pepperdine against the top-seeded St. Mary Gaels at 9:00 p.m. ET followed by the No. 3 BYU Cougars squaring-off against the No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs at 11:30 p.m ET.

Pepperdine Waves vs. St Mary’s Gaels (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: St. Mary’s -7 ½

Betting Matchup

Pepperdine closed-out the regular season with a shaky 3-5 straight-up record in its last eight games while going 4-4 against the spread, but one of those victories came against the Gaels in a 69-63 road win on Feb. 11 as a heavy 12 ½-point underdog. The total went OVER 148 in Saturday’s 90-86 quarterfinal’s victory over San Francisco as five-point favorites and it has now gone OVER in the Waves’ last four outings.

Junior guard Jeremy Major came up big in Saturday’s win with 28 points while going 10-for-12 from the field. The Waves scored 90 points for the first time since pinning 98 points on San Francisco in a regular season win on Jan. 16. They shot 52.6 percent from the field this time around including a 9-for-18 performance from three-point range. Junior guard Lamond Murray Jr. has been the team’s leading scorer all season with 16.2 points per game and he added 16 to the winning effort on Saturday night.

The Gaels’ run to a WCC regular season title at 15-3 SU in conference play included a five-game winning streak down the stretch while covering ATS in their final three contests. St. Mary’s opened-up this tournament with a comfortable 60-48 victory against Loyola Marymount, but it could not cover as a 14 ½-point favorite. The total stayed UNDER the closing 133 ½-point line and it has stayed UNDER in eight of its last 10 games.

St. Mary’s is ranked fourth in the nation in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 60 points a game and it has been able work this number down to 58.4 points over its last five games. The Gaels fall to fifth in the WCC in scoring with an average of 74.7 PPG and this number has also fallen slightly to 71 points during this same stretch. Sophomore guard Emmett Naar is averaging a team-high 13.9 points and he met or exceeded that average in three of his last four starts.

Betting Trends

-- The Waves have failed to cover in four of their last five neutral-site games, but they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven Monday games.

-- The Gaels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games played at a neutral site and they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games at a neutral site.

-- Head-to-head in this WCC clash, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games. Pepperdine swept the season series both SU and ATS after closing as an underdog in each game.

BYU Cougars vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs (ESPN2, 11:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Gonzaga -2 ½

Betting Matchup

BYU had little trouble getting past Santa Clara on Saturday in a 72-60 win, but it could not cover the closing 15 ½-point spread. The total in that game stayed UNDER 153 and it has stayed UNDER in four of its last five games. The Cougars closed-out the regular season with a tight 71-68 loss to Gonzaga as three-point home favorites. The loss snapped a SU five-game winning streak and BYU is now just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five contests.

Senior guard Kyle Collinsworth was recently named the WCC Player of the Year and he stayed hot in the postseason with 13 points, nine rebounds and six assists in Saturday’s win. Another senior guard Chase Fischer has been the Cougars’ leading scorer this season with 18 PPG and he added 14 points against Santa Clara as four of five starters ended the night in double figures. BYU is the highest scoring team in the WCC with an average of 83.6 PPG.

Gonzaga followed-up its big upset of BYU in its season finale with a convincing 92-67 romp over Portland in its first tournament game. The Bulldogs covered as 15 ½-point favorites and the total went OVER the 154 ½-point closing line. They have now gone 5-2 (both SU and ATS) in their last seven games with the total going OVER in four of those contests. Gonzaga actually tied St. Mary’s for the best record in the WCC at 15-3 SU, but it lost both meetings against its bitter rival.

The Bulldogs opened-up a 14-point lead at the half in Saturday’s quarterfinal victory and never looked back. The combination of sophomore forward Domantas Sabonis and senior guard Eric McClellan scored 50 of Gonzaga’s 92 points and the team as a whole shot 50.8 percent from the field. The Bulldogs are second in the conference behind BYU in scoring with 79.3 PPG and senior forward Kyle Wiltjer is the second-highest scorer in the WCC this season with 20.5 PPG.

Betting Trends

-- The Cougars have failed to cover in six of their last seven Monday games, but they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. The total has gone OVER in nine of their last 10 neutral-site games.

-- The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on Monday and the total has gone OVER in 12 of their last 17 games at a neutral site. It has also gone OVER in 15 of their last 22 conference games.

-- The favorite in this conference tilt has gone 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 12 games. These two teams split the season series SU with the road team covering in each game. The total stayed UNDER in both meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

CBB ATS

CBB > (517) WRIGHT ST@ (518) OAKLAND | 2016-03-07 21:30:00 - 2016-03-07 21:30:00
Play ON OAKLAND against the spread in Road games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+8.9 units)

CBB > (525) W MICHIGAN@ (526) N ILLINOIS | 2016-03-07 20:00:00 - 2016-03-07 20:00:00
Play ON N ILLINOIS against the spread in All games in all home games
The record is 11 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+8.8 units)

CBB > (523) TOLEDO@ (524) E MICHIGAN | 2016-03-07 19:30:00 - 2016-03-07 19:30:00
Play AGAINST TOLEDO against the spread in All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games
The record is 4 Wins and 18 Losses for the since 1992 (-15.8 units)

CBB > (531) BYU@ (532) GONZAGA | 2016-03-07 23:30:00 - 2016-03-07 23:30:00
Play AGAINST BYU against the spread in Road games in all tournament games
The record is 23 Wins and 53 Losses for the since 1992 (-35.3 units)

CBB > (519) MIAMI OHIO@ (520) BALL ST | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play AGAINST BALL ST against the spread in Home games after a conference game
The record is 3 Wins and 13 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.3 units)

CBB > (519) MIAMI OHIO@ (520) BALL ST | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play AGAINST BALL ST against the spread in All games as a favorite
The record is 2 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-10.1 units)

CBB > (521) BOWLING GREEN@ (522) KENT ST | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play AGAINST BOWLING GREEN against the spread in All games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games
The record is 2 Wins and 10 Losses for the this season (-9 units)

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CBB MONEYLINE

CBB > (523) TOLEDO@ (524) E MICHIGAN | 2016-03-07 19:30:00 - 2016-03-07 19:30:00
Play AGAINST TOLEDO using money line in All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games
The record is 0 Wins and 6 Losses for the last three seasons (-13.75 units)

CBB > (531) BYU@ (532) GONZAGA | 2016-03-07 23:30:00 - 2016-03-07 23:30:00
Play ON GONZAGA using money line in Road games against conference opponents
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+11.35 units)

CBB > (525) W MICHIGAN@ (526) N ILLINOIS | 2016-03-07 20:00:00 - 2016-03-07 20:00:00
Play ON N ILLINOIS using money line in All games after scoring 80 points or more
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+10.85 units)

CBB > (529) PEPPERDINE@ (530) ST MARYS-CA | 2016-03-07 21:00:00 - 2016-03-07 21:00:00
Play ON PEPPERDINE using money line in Road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games
The record is 5 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.8 units)

CBB > (527) UNC-WILMINGTON@ (528) HOFSTRA | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play ON UNC-WILMINGTON using money line in All games against conference opponents
The record is 26 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.55 units)

CBB > (529) PEPPERDINE@ (530) ST MARYS-CA | 2016-03-07 21:00:00 - 2016-03-07 21:00:00
Play AGAINST ST MARYS-CA using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games
The record is 15 Wins and 16 Losses for the last three seasons (-28.6 units)

CBB > (521) BOWLING GREEN@ (522) KENT ST | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play AGAINST BOWLING GREEN using money line in All games in March games
The record is 2 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.6 units)

CBB > (515) WI-GREEN BAY@ (516) VALPARAISO | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play AGAINST WI-GREEN BAY using money line in All games in tournament semi-final games
The record is 2 Wins and 8 Losses for the since 1992 (-13.4 units)

CBB > (515) WI-GREEN BAY@ (516) VALPARAISO | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play AGAINST WI-GREEN BAY using money line in All games in March games
The record is 11 Wins and 23 Losses for the since 1992 (-25.55 units)

CBB > (527) UNC-WILMINGTON@ (528) HOFSTRA | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play ON UNC-WILMINGTON using money line in All games in all games
The record is 33 Wins and 16 Losses for the last two seasons (+21.5 units)

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CBB FIRST HALF

CBB > (525) W MICHIGAN@ (526) N ILLINOIS | 2016-03-07 20:00:00 - 2016-03-07 20:00:00
Play ON N ILLINOIS ?>in the first halfin All games after scoring 80 points or more
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.9 units)

CBB > (529) PEPPERDINE@ (530) ST MARYS-CA | 2016-03-07 21:00:00 - 2016-03-07 21:00:00
Play ON ST MARYS-CA ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with one or less days rest
The record is 15 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+10.6 units)

CBB > (531) BYU@ (532) GONZAGA | 2016-03-07 23:30:00 - 2016-03-07 23:30:00
Play ON GONZAGA ?>in the first halfin Road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games
The record is 27 Wins and 9 Losses for the since 1992 (+17.1 units)

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CBB TOTALS

CBB > (519) MIAMI OHIO@ (520) BALL ST | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play UNDER MIAMI OHIO on the totalin Road games revenging a home loss vs opponent
The record is 1 Overs and 13 Unders for the last three seasons (+11.9 units)

CBB > (521) BOWLING GREEN@ (522) KENT ST | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play OVER BOWLING GREEN on the totalin Road games against conference opponents
The record is 24 Overs and 5 Unders for the last three seasons (+18.5 units)

CBB > (541) DELAWARE ST@ (542) SAVANNAH ST | 2016-03-07 17:00:00 - 2016-03-07 17:00:00
Play UNDER DELAWARE ST on the totalin All games versus the first half line in all games
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+9 units)

CBB > (521) BOWLING GREEN@ (522) KENT ST | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play OVER BOWLING GREEN on the totalin Road games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 21 Overs and 4 Unders for the last three seasons (+16.6 units)

CBB > (525) W MICHIGAN@ (526) N ILLINOIS | 2016-03-07 20:00:00 - 2016-03-07 20:00:00
Play OVER W MICHIGAN on the totalin Road games revenging a road loss vs opponent
The record is 18 Overs and 3 Unders for the since 1992 (+14.7 units)

CBB > (519) MIAMI OHIO@ (520) BALL ST | 2016-03-07 19:00:00 - 2016-03-07 19:00:00
Play OVER BALL ST on the totalin All games in conference tournament games
The record is 15 Overs and 2 Unders for the since 1992 (+12.8 units)

CBB > (529) PEPPERDINE@ (530) ST MARYS-CA | 2016-03-07 21:00:00 - 2016-03-07 21:00:00
Play UNDER ST MARYS-CA on the totalin All games when the total is 130 to 139.5
The record is 10 Overs and 30 Unders for the last three seasons (+19 units)

CBB > (531) BYU@ (532) GONZAGA | 2016-03-07 23:30:00 - 2016-03-07 23:30:00
Play UNDER GONZAGA on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the this season (+7 units)

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six of the better minor league prospects for the San Diego Padres.......

1) Javier Guerra, SS-- Acquired from Boston in Craig Kimbrel trade.

2) Manuel Margot, OF-- Better defensively than with the bat.

3) Hunter Renfroe, OF-- Led Texas League in outfield assists LY.

6) Travis Jankowski, OF-- Hit .211 in 90 major league ABs last season.

7) Colin Rea, P-- Allowed 29 hits in 32 big league IP last year.

23) Rymer Liriano, OF-- Had .383 OB% in full year at AAA El Paso LY

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend........

13) Oddest fact about Peyton Manning's great career-- he played in four Super Bowls, for four different head coaches. Even more unusual than Joe Gibbs winning his three Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks.

12) Northern Iowa 56, Evansville 54-- Panthers led by 14 at the half, blew the lead, but they advance to NCAAs thanks to a fortunate bounce on a last-second shot.

11) North Dakota State 60, IUPUI 45-- Bison advance because partly because IUPUI suspended its best player for undisclosed reasons. Sometimes you need to get lucky.

10) Hofstra 70, Wm & Mary 67-- Last year, Hofstra lost three times to Tribe, with a double OT loss in this round. This year, Hofstra beat W&M three times- their seniors Green/Tanksley combined for 37 points here. Hofstra now plays NC-Wilmington in CAA finals. Teams split their games this year-- both teams that lost blew double digit leads, so tonight's final should be interesting.

9) Iona 81, Siena 70-- Gaels win on Siena's home court- road team won all three series games this year- to reach finals against Monmouth, which got leading rebounder Jones back yesterday-- he missed the Hawks' loss to Iona last month. .

8) Southern Conference-- Chattanooga-East Tennessee State is final tonight; ETSU got swept by the Mocs this year, losing by 10-8 points. Buccaneers won 10 of their last 11 games, with only loss in the rematch with Chattanooga.

7) One of the referees at the Southern Conference tournament is Bruce Benedict, who played 12 years in the major leagues with the Atlanta Braves, where he hit .240 as a catcher. I spent most of his career rooting against him. Why?

My favorite ballplayer while Benedict was playing was Biff Pocoroba; if you know me, you know why. Pocoroba was also a catcher on the Braves and he competed with Benedict for playing time, so I spent several years hoping Benedict failed badly. I'm an idiot, I know- they were both very average, but together a decent platoon unit.

6) Kid named Wendall Williams from College of Cumberlands (I've never heard of it) ran a 4.19 40-yard dash at a tryout in Minnesota. Kid is a track star, hasn't played a lot of football-- he caught 15 passes for 457 yards (with 8 TDs) at an NAIA school. If Al Davis were still alive, Mr Williams would damn sure be a Raider next year.

5) Cincinnati 61, SMU 54-- Mustangs' season is over; both them and Louisville went out meekly this weekend, proving how mental the game can be- they become ineligible for the postseason, and things go south fairly quickly. Human nature.

4) Fresno State is 22-9, 13-5 in conference-- they've had a great year, are #2 seed in Mountain West, but if UNLV beats Air Force in a preliminary game, Fresno will have to play the Rebels in their first tournament game, in the Thomas & Mack Center. Not the best situation, but playing the conference tournament in Las Vegas is the only way the league would make any money. I've heard that somewhere before........

3) Golfer Steven Bowditch is struggling badly with his game, but he was still qualified for the World Golf tournament and he played all 72 holes (there is no cut in tourneys with small fields like this)........in +37. Thats 81-80-80-84 but he banked $48,000.

2) City of San Jose is owed $6.8M in unpaid library fines; so if you live in San Jose and you have an overdue book, pay your damn fine already.

1) Gonzaga-BYU figures to be very good tonight, from Las Vegas, semifinals of the WCC from Orleans Arena. Dick Vitale is going to do the WCC tourney the next two nights which should be very interesting. Mr Vitale isn't ESPN's #1 guy anymore and he can only do one game per night because he had throat surgery couple years ago, but this should be fun, for both him and the viewers.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, March 7

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WI-GREEN BAY (20 - 12) vs. VALPARAISO (26 - 5) - 3/7/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
VALPARAISO is 5-2 against the spread versus WI-GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
VALPARAISO is 5-2 straight up against WI-GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WRIGHT ST (20 - 12) vs. OAKLAND (21 - 10) - 3/7/2016, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-3 against the spread versus WRIGHT ST over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 4-3 straight up against WRIGHT ST over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI OHIO (12 - 19) at BALL ST (19 - 12) - 3/7/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
BALL ST is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in a home game where the total is 120 to 129.5 since 1997.
BALL ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in March games since 1997.
BALL ST is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 3-1 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
BALL ST is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOWLING GREEN (14 - 17) at KENT ST (19 - 12) - 3/7/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 6-13 ATS (-8.3 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
BOWLING GREEN is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents this season.
BOWLING GREEN is 20-44 ATS (-28.4 Units) in March games since 1997.
BOWLING GREEN is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after a conference game this season.
BOWLING GREEN is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOWLING GREEN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENT ST is 3-3 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
KENT ST is 4-2 straight up against BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TOLEDO (17 - 14) at E MICHIGAN (17 - 14) - 3/7/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
TOLEDO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
TOLEDO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
E MICHIGAN is 99-136 ATS (-50.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 4-4 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
E MICHIGAN is 4-4 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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W MICHIGAN (13 - 18) at N ILLINOIS (20 - 11) - 3/7/2016, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W MICHIGAN is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
W MICHIGAN is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
N ILLINOIS is 46-31 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 46-31 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all home games this season.
N ILLINOIS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
N ILLINOIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents this season.
N ILLINOIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after a conference game this season.
N ILLINOIS is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 4-1 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 4-2 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UNC-WILMINGTON (23 - 7) vs. HOFSTRA (23 - 8) - 3/7/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOFSTRA is 5-2 against the spread versus UNC-WILMINGTON over the last 3 seasons
HOFSTRA is 5-2 straight up against UNC-WILMINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PEPPERDINE (18 - 12) vs. ST MARYS-CA (26 - 4) - 3/7/2016, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST MARYS-CA is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST MARYS-CA is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ST MARYS-CA is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ST MARYS-CA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
PEPPERDINE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PEPPERDINE is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
PEPPERDINE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
ST MARYS-CA is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PEPPERDINE is 5-2 against the spread versus ST MARYS-CA over the last 3 seasons
ST MARYS-CA is 4-3 straight up against PEPPERDINE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BYU (23 - 9) vs. GONZAGA (24 - 7) - 3/7/2016, 11:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 61-101 ATS (-50.1 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
BYU is 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
BYU is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.
BYU is 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) in road games in March games since 1997.
BYU is 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
BYU is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
BYU is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in conference tournament games since 1997.
BYU is 82-124 ATS (-54.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
GONZAGA is 134-97 ATS (+27.3 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
GONZAGA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in tournament semi-final games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
GONZAGA is 5-3 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons
GONZAGA is 5-3 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DELAWARE ST (7 - 24) vs. SAVANNAH ST (14 - 14) - 3/7/2016, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAVANNAH ST is 1-0 against the spread versus DELAWARE ST over the last 3 seasons
DELAWARE ST is 3-1 straight up against SAVANNAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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COPPIN ST (8 - 21) vs. N CAROLINA A&T (10 - 21) - 3/7/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
COPPIN ST is 3-0 straight up against N CAROLINA A&T over the last 3 seasons

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HARTFORD (10 - 22) at STONY BROOK (24 - 6) - 3/7/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HARTFORD is 1-0 against the spread versus STONY BROOK over the last 3 seasons
STONY BROOK is 7-0 straight up against HARTFORD over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW HAMPSHIRE (19 - 11) at VERMONT (20 - 12) - 3/7/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VERMONT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW HAMPSHIRE is 1-0 against the spread versus VERMONT over the last 3 seasons
VERMONT is 6-1 straight up against NEW HAMPSHIRE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 7

MAC tournament (campus sites)

Ball State lost three of last four games after 9-5 start in MAC; they beat Miami twice this year, 48-46 at home (trailed by 16 in second half), then 73-56 on road. Cardinals are 2-8 in last 10 first round games, 0-4 the last four years. Miami won three of last four games after a 3-11 start; they're 7-5 in first tourney game last 12 years. Teams split last eight series tilts. Ball State lost four of its last seven home games.

Bowling Green lost 10 of last 11 games, losing last six road games, five by 11+ points. Kent State beat Falcons twice this year, 62-59 on road (led 30-19 at half), then 70-54 on Senior Day six nights ago. Flashes are 8-4 in last 12 games with BG, which is on third coach in last three years. Falcons are 3-9 in MAC tourney last nine years, 3-6 in first game. Kent won MAC tourney in '06/'08, is 3-4 in first round games since.

Eastern Michigan won six of its last eight games, beating Toledo twice in last 16 days, 91-85 at home (made 11-16 on arc, was 56-42 at halftime), 79-75 on road three nights ago- EMU trailed by 9 in second half. Toledo made 10-20 on arc Friday, still lost- they beat Eastern in last two MAC tourneys, won last three first round games. Eastern went 2-1 in tourney last three years; their zone is in trouble if team shoots its 3's well.

Northern Illinois is 6-9 in its last 15 games after 14-3 start; they're 8-1 at home in MAC, with only loss to Buffalo. Huskies split with Western Michigan this year, losing by 14 on road Jan 16 (Broncos made 12-26 on arc), winning rematch 76-67 nine days ago (Broncos were 1-13 on arc). NIU is 2-9 in last 11 first round games; both wins were by 3. WMU is 12-1 in its first MAC tourney game the last thirteen years.

CAA tournament (Baltimore)

Hofstra won its last eight games; they split pair with NC-Wilmington, in games where losing sides blew 20/18 point leads. UNCW won 15 of last 17 games- their two wins this weekend were by total of 5 points- their subs play 31.5% of time, Hofstra's subs play least minutes in country. Seahawks beat Hofstra in this game 10 years ago; neither side has been back in finals since. UNCW wants game to go fast; Hofstra has almost no depth, but players who play are very experienced.

Horizon tournament (Joe Louis Arena, Detroit)

Green Bay played last two days. Valpo had a bye to this point; Valpo swept Phoenix this year, shooting 58% inside arc, then 70-68 on road in rematch nine days ago- Crusaders were down 3 with 4:57 left. Phoenix won six of its last seven games; they're 4-8 in this tourney the last eight years. Valpo went 16-2 in Horizon this year; they won this event two of last three years, won 1st round game last five years, three by 9+ points.

Wright State played last two days, won its last five games; they've lost twice to Oakland this season, 89-63 on road, 89-73 at home-- Grizzlies scored 1.31/1.20 ppp in two games. Oakland had by eto here; shooter Max Hooper's dad passed away Sunday- his status here is a ??. Wright State lost in tourney finals in three of last six years. Oakland won 10 of its last 12 games; they're 1-3 in first round games last four tournaments. Wright State only had two guys play more than 27:00 yesterday.

MAAC tournament (Albany)

Iona-Monmouth split two games this year; there was almost fracas after Hawks' 110-102 road win (they made 13-22 on arc, scored 66 points in second half). Monmouth is 13-1 in last 14 games, with only loss 83-67 at home to Gaels, who won last seven games, winning on Siena's floor in semis last night-- three starters played 34:00+. Iona is 9-2 in this event last five years, losing in finals in last two. Monmouth last won tourney in 2006, when they were in NEC.

Southern Conference tournament (Asheville, NC)

Chattanooga won 22 of its last 25 games; they beat East Tennessee State twice this year, 94-84 at home Jan 16 (made 11-20 on arc, were +13 on foul line), 76-69 on road (+13 on line again). Only two Mocs were used more than 28:00 last nite- their two wins this weekend were by total of nine points. Buccaneers won last seven games, they're #14 in country in experience; only two of their guys played more than 27:00 yesterday. Chattanooga is 4-0 vs ETSU since teams became SoCon rivals.

Summit tournament (Sioux Falls)

South Dakota State swept Denver this year, 68-59 at home (Pioneers hit 3-9 on arc), 67-56 on road (Denver was 5-21). Jackrabbits are 10-2 last 12 games- they had yesterday off. Denver is 6-8 in conference tourneys last 10 years; they blew 15-point halftime lead last nite, pulled away for win late. Pioneers are 6-8 in conference tourneys last 14 years- last time they won two games in same tourney was 2010. State is 10-2 in tourney last five years, but haven't won it since 2013.

North Dakota State won Summit tourney last two years, but lost four of last seven games overall; they caught a break yesterday when IUPUI sat its best player. Bison lost 79-74 at Fort Wayne Jan 21 (led by five with 9:22 left), won rematch 62-46 Feb 6. IPFW is 6-8 in conference tourneys last nine years; they're 17-4 in last 21 games overall, had yesterday off. Mastodons won five of last six games; they scored 86+ points in their last seven wins.

WCC tournament (Las Vegas)

Since 2004, St Mary's is 2-8 in second WCC tourney game. Pepperdine gets 6.5 points from St Mary's despite beating Gaels twice this season, 67-64 at home (were down 7 at half), 69-63 on road (Gaels hit 5-14 on line). Waves are 4-5 in last nine games; since 07, they're 0-7 in second WCC tourney game. St Mary's won last seven games overall; they win this game, then hope BYU/Gonzaga beat each other up in the nightcap- no one in WCC is off the bubble.

Since 2004, Gonzaga is 24-3 in WCC tourney, with all three losses in its second tourney game. Road team won both Gonzaga-BYU games this year; Cougars won in Spokane 69-68, rallying back from 13 down with 11:57 left, then lost on Senior Night 71-68, shooting 32% from the floor. BYU is 14-9 in conference tourneys last 10 years, but didn't win any of them. Cougars' last four losses were all by 6 or less points- they're 13-4 in their last 17 games overall.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Monday, March 7

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
MIAMI (OHIO) vs. BALL STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami (Ohio)'s last 7 games when playing on the road against Ball State
Miami (Ohio) is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Ball State
Ball State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Miami (Ohio)
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ball State's last 6 games

7:00 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. KENT STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Bowling Green's last 6 games on the road
Bowling Green is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kent State's last 5 games at home
Kent State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games

7:30 PM
TOLEDO vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN
Toledo is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Eastern Michigan
Toledo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Eastern Michigan's last 12 games when playing at home against Toledo
Eastern Michigan is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Toledo

8:00 PM
WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Western Michigan's last 6 games on the road
Western Michigan is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Northern Illinois is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
Northern Illinois is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Western Michigan

9:00 PM
PEPPERDINE vs. ST. MARY'S
No trends available
St. Mary's is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Mary's last 6 games when playing Pepperdine

11:30 PM
BYU vs. GONZAGA
No trends available
Gonzaga is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing BYU
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Gonzaga's last 12 games when playing BYU

[StarDust Bum]

Yesterday's Results: 10 - 4
Ytd: 58 - 49

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, MARCH 7

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


NDSU at IPFW 07:00 PM

IPFW -2.5


HART at STON 07:00 PM

STON -18.5


GB at VALP 07:00 PM

GB +9.5


UNCW at HOF 07:00 PM

UNCW +2.0


M-OH at BALL 07:00 PM

BALL -6.5


IONA at MONM 07:00 PM

IONA +1.5


BGSU at KENT 07:00 PM

BGSU +7.0


TOL at EMU 07:30 PM

EMU +2.0


UNH at UVM 07:30 PM

UVM -8.5

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COPP at NCAT 08:00 PM

COPP +1.5


WMU at NIU 08:00 PM

NIU -4.5


PEPP at SMC 09:00 PM

SMC -7.5


ETSU at CHAT 09:00 PM

ETSU +5.0


WRST at OAK 09:30 PM

OAK -6.0


DEN at SDST 09:30 PM

SDST -10.0


BYU at GONZ 11:30 PM

GONZ -3.0

[StarDust Bum]

Big 5 Tournament Previews
March 7, 2016


ACC

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: MIAMI FLORIDA • NORTH CAROLINA • VIRGINIA • DUKE

The Way We See It: With Louisville on the sidelines paying for its sins (connect the dots... Tricky Ricky in hot water over illicit sex allegations, and the team drowning in sex-for-recruits, and he’s still the Cardinal head coach!), the defacto vote for top gun in the conference this year goes to MIAMI FLORIDA, a unit that has the look and feel of the team to beat. All the ingredients are in place for this squad who lost in the NIT title game last year, with 4 returning starters back keyed by two senior starting guards, a 7-foot senior shot-blocking center and arguably the best coach in the conference.

NORTH CAROLINA, owners of a 41-19 SU mark in this event since 1991, will be the favorite - and perhaps justifiably so. While the Heels are 17-6 SU as top seeds in this event, they are just 7-14-2 ATS when carrying the pressure of being the No. 1 seed. Last year they rode the loss of legendary coach Dean Smith to the title game, but it was 2008 the last time UNC managed to cut down the nets as the top dog in this tourney. Despite being a Top 10 rebounding team, a staggering 3-15-3 ATS mark in this tourney when not favored by more than 11 points is a major concern.

VIRGINIA has been the top seed (and regular season champion) each of the previous two years of this tourney. The Cavs fell to Carolina in the semifinals last year and have cashed in only 5 of their last 14 games in this event. A rotten 2-9-1 ATS mark as conference tourney favorites is a sticking point.

And then there is DUKE who, despite being down a notch or two this season, must be respected given its 37-7 SU mark in this tournament since 1999. However, a 1-7 ATS mark in its last eight ACC tourney tiffs is a certainly a put-off.

THE SLEEPER: NOTRE DAME
The Fighting Irish gained nod over Pittsburgh by virtue of being the defending champ. The Dame took down Miami Florida, Duke and North Carolina en route to claiming the crown last year and that experience, along with a trip to the Elite Eight, should bode well this go round.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: PLAY AGAINST: NOTRE DAME IN GAME ONE
We realize the Irish get our call as the ‘Sleeper’ in this event. The reason for fading them out of the gate, though, is the fact that the defending champion in the ACC tournament is 2-13 ATS in its first round game the following season. Ouch!

BIG TEN

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: MICHIGAN STATE • INDIANA • MARYLAND • PURDUE

The Way We See It: Once again this season the NCAA Tournament committee will have its hands full trying to decide which teams to leave home from the powerful Big Ten conference with as many as eight 20-win teams expected to crash the party (and that's not including Northwestern).

It's been a long time between drinks of water since the Big Ten won a NCAA championship, but our feeling is MICHIGAN STATE has the chance to be the first team from this loop to cut down the nets in the Big Dance since they last did it in 2000. The Spartans certainly have all the attributes - read: No. 1 team in the land in Rebound Margin, Defensive Field Goal percentage and 3-Point Offensive Field Goal Percentage! It's the Tom Izzo brand, and it works, with wins over Kansas, Louisville and the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten (Indiana) its no wonder this team is 5-0 SU against greater than .800 competition this season...

INDIANA captured the regular season title but was bounced in the first round (as a No. 7 seed) by Maryland last year and is just 4-12 SU in this event since 2004. Its best weapon is a No. 3 ranked Offensive Field Goal shooting squad, but top seeds in this tourney are a mediocre 21-22 ATS all-time...

Like the Hoosiers, MARYLAND, a team of straight shooters (No. 12 in the nation in Offensive Field Goal percentage), lost wind from their sails in dropping three of their final five games at press time. The Terps bring a 4-1-1 ATS conference tourney ledger of late in to this event but have struggled against quality opponents in conference tourney play, going 3-11 SU versus .735 or greater competition.

WISCONSIN, last year's champion, received stunning news when iconic head coach Bo Ryan called it quits in mid December. The Badgers got off to a rocky start under interim coach Greg Gard, losing four if its first five conference games by a total of 15 points, but have bounced back to win nine of their last ten games at press time including victories over Michigan State, Indiana and Maryland. They could be dangerous.

THE SLEEPER: MICHIGAN

As readers of the PLAYBOOK know, we're big fans of John Beilein. His troops dominated .800 or less opposition this season (18-2 SU at press time) while Beilein is an outlandish 47-27 SU and 47-25-2 ATS in post-season games... Note: The Wolves have devoured No. 4-8 seeds in conference tourney play, going 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE WITH REVENGE

It's an oldie but goodie and once again we'll take a leap of faith with Tom Rizzo not all that hard, actually - and back his troops with revenge in this affair. It would serve you well to note that the Spartans are 30-12 SU and 28-12-2 ATS with same season conference revenge since 2000, including 22-1 SU and 18-3-2 ATS when favored by four or more points, and 6-1-1- ATS in this tourney. Whew!

BIG 12

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: KANSAS • WEST VIRGINIA • OKLAHOMA • IOWA STATE

The Way We See It: With only two teams in the conference owning a losing record, its conceivable seven teams from this loop could receive invites to the Big Dance.

However, unlike the three Big 12 teams that sported 30-win seasons two years ago, only KANSAS appears headed in that direction. The Jayhawks winners of 11 consecutive conference crowns - are once again the overwhelming choice to cut down the nets as they have reached the title game in this tourney 12 times since 1996. And when they do arrive to the championship game they've been like an annuity, going 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last eleven title games (lost to Iowa State in the finale last year).

Bob Huggins' WEST VIRGINIA squad gains the 2nd nod, thanks to a glass-cleaning machine that ranks No. 8 in the land in Rebound Margin. Yes we realize the Mountaineers have lost the money in each of their last nine conference tourney affairs, but Huggy Bear is 30-9 SU in these games when his team owns a win percentage of more than .666. He is also 8-2 SUATS in conference tourney versus No. 1 or No. 2 seeds.

OKLAHOMA lived a good portion of the season in the pole position of the national polls before being toppled for good in early February. The Sooners, though, were just 3-10 ATS as conference favorites this season and area paltry 2-14 ATS in their last sixteen games in this tournament, going one-and-out three of the last four years. Yech.

IOWA STATE, champs each of the past two seasons in this event, have the makings of making a deep run once again this campaign with a veteran team that's been there and done that. The Cyclones chewed up sub .590 opposition this season (11-0 SU) and could be a finalist once again.

THE SLEEPER: BAYLOR

When it comes down to it its all about the completion for Baylor. The Bears devoured sub .750 opponents this season, winning 19 of 21 games on the scoreboard, while going 7-3-1 ATS in those games against the Big 12. An 18-11 ATS mark in this tourney this decade, including 13-5 ATS versus .750 or less opposition, says it all. You know what to do.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: PLAY ON the No. 2 seed in the semifinal round

Results speak for them selves: since 2006 the No. 2 seed in this tourney is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in semifinal games, including 5-0 SUATS the last five (see Iowa State over Oklahoma last year).

PAC 12

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: ARIZONA • OREGON • UTAH • CALIFORNIA

The Way We See It: If it appears the PAC-12 is down this season it’s because they are. Nine players from the conference were taken in the first round of the NBA draft the past two seasons, with ARIZONA leading the way with five. Nonetheless, because of relentless recruiting, the Wildcats depth runs deep and last year’s Elite Eight squad nabs the top spot in our Final Four once again this year. After 4 consecutive losses in title games, Zona finally climbed the ladder and cut down the nets in this event last year when they drilled Oregon, 80-52 in the championship game. Sean Miller’s troops destroyed .750 or less opposition this campaign (it’s a good thing the loop is down), winning 20 of 23 games at press time. That should get them back to the finals this year.

OREGON brings a stellar 19-10 SUATS all-time mark in this tourney into this year’s event, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS versus losing foes, and 4-0 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points. A 4-1 ATS dog log this season puts comfortably into just about any role in this affair.

After misfiring early in February, UTAH closed like a freight train to conclude the regular season and is a prime player in this tournament. An 11-1 SU mark versus .590 foes this season, along with a 9-3 ATS record of late in conference tourneys makes the Utes ultra dangerous.

CALIFORNIA has struggled in this tourney with a 2-6 SUATS record in its last eight games. The Bears were sent packing in a 22-point loss by Arizona as 18.5-point dogs last year and are just 2-10 ATS as tourney dogs but are vastly improved this year. A team no one will want to face n this event.

THE SLEEPER: OREGON STATE

The Beavers are another 5 returning starter entry that could do damage early in in this event. Head coach Wayne Tinkle’s troops have pissed themselves as dogs of more than 3 points under his lead (2-17 SU and 4-15 ATS) but have been competitive (11-3) against losing teams. That should carry them past the first round, and who knows what can happen thereafter.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: PLAY ON THE UNDERDOG IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Despite a loss last year, the record of the dog in PAC 12 championship games is now 7-2 ATS the last eight years. With this group as tightly packed as can be, the points are certainly the play in this year’s title game as well.

SEC

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: KENTUCKY • TEXAS A&M • VANDERBILT • LSU

The Way We See It: With four new coaches roaming the sidelines, the SEC is down deeply from past editions (ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has only four teams from the loop in this years March Madness tourney), it's still KENTUCKY that garners all the praise. A sweep of last year's conference tourney moved the Wildcats record to 51-11 SU and 40-20-2 ATS in this event since 1992. We're not about to step in front of that, not with a coach in John Calipari that is 35-1 SU and 20-16 ATS as a No. 1 seed in conference tournament play in his career...

TEXAS A&M hit a 0-4 SUATS wall early in February but managed to right itself with five straight season ending wins at press time to earn the runner-up position. The Aggies, though, will need to do better than they have in the past in this event (1-3 SUATS, going one-and-out each of the last two years). A refreshing 9-3 SU and 7-4-1 ATS mark versus .640 or greater opposition this season bodes well.

A lot more was expected from VANDERBILT this campaign, a team with its top 8 scorers back from a 20-win team last season. In fact, many thought the Commodores would challenge Kentucky for supremacy in the SEC. Still, a late season surge holds promise, as does a 12-3 SU and 9-4 ATS mark versus sub .600 foes this season.

LSU is led by 6-10 newcomer of the year, Ben Simmons soon to be a mainstay in the NBA. The Tigers, though, struggled away from home this campaign (3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS) and were sketchy at best against avenging foes (5-5 SU and 1-9 ATS). They will need a big run to impress the NCAA Tournament brass.

THE SLEEPER: SOUTH CAROLINA

The Gamecocks outplayed the preseason prognosticators that had them pegged as the 10th choice in this league. The rowdy roosters are 4-0 AST as favorites of 6 or more points in this tourney as well as 4-1 ATS as dogs of more than 8 points. The problem is head coach Frank Martin is just 6-16 SU and 7-14-1 ATS as a dog versus inferior foes and that will likely blow out the candle they've held with a surprising season this campaign.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: PLAY ON KENTUCKY IN THE SEMI OR FINAL ROUND

As alluded to above, John Calipari has dominated in conference tourney play, especially in Semi and Final round games where his teams smell the blood, going 27-5 SU and 23-9 ATS, including 26-1 SU and 20-8 ATS as a favorite. Enough said.

[StarDust Bum]

First Weekend Upset Risks
March 7, 2016

Selection Sunday is still nearly a week away and while the conference tournaments will be critical for several bubble teams most of the top tier teams aren’t likely to be bumped up or down too significantly. The upsets are always the most entertaining part of March Madness and here is a look at a handful of higher profile teams likely to earn favorable seeds in the opening weekend that could be at risk to head home early.

Indiana (Projected #2 to #4 seed):

Indiana continues to see its stock rise and projects as a #3 seed for most right now after the surprise 15-3 campaign to win the Big Ten by two games. Indiana did catch some scheduling breaks drawing Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Purdue just once each, but a strong Big Ten tournament showing could see the Hoosiers push for a #2 seed. In the five-game run to close the season, Indiana shot 50.5% including 43.5% from 3-point range, numbers that will be impossible to keep up in the move to less familiar neutral site venues in a tournament setting. The road splits are a bit concerning for the Hoosiers, going just 8-6 away from home with three losses to teams outside of the top 100. Tom Crean is just 4-3 in NCAA Tournament games at Indiana, only once winning a game by more than seven points as the Hoosiers might be worth fading in the opening weekend. Crean is in his eighth season in Bloomington, but the Hoosiers have not made it out of the Sweet 16 in the Big Dance despite having three players that were top 10 NBA draft picks in that span.

Kentucky (Projected #2 to #4 seed):

Kentucky went just 6-8 in road and neutral site venues this season as few teams in the nation benefitted as much from its home court going 9-0 at home in SEC games with an average margin of victory of nearly 21 points. Kentucky wound up just 3-3 vs. the other top five SEC teams and only playing Texas A&M and South Carolina once each made for a favorable schedule in league play. Kentucky fans travel extremely well, but it seems unlikely that the Wildcats will be given the preferential treatment they deserved last season playing close to home the entire tournament and there is actually only one opening weekend venue (St. Louis) that is within a six-hour drive from Lexington. As usual, Kentucky is an extremely young team and this squad is a bit beat up with some late season injuries. With Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis leading the backcourt, Kentucky is certainly a threat for a fifth final four run in six seasons, but unlike last season they will likely be at risk for an early upset as well while facing a much more difficult path than last season. The Wildcats lost five games to teams that probably won’t make the NCAA Tournament and being one of the premier programs in the country will ensure that every foe brings its best to the matchup.

Miami, FL (Projected #3 to #5 seed):

With a chance to win a share of the ACC title on Saturday, Miami lost by 15 at Virginia Tech, a team that won’t sniff the NCAA Tournament without winning the ACC tournament. Miami actually had four losses by 10 or more points this season and four of the team’s six defeats came to teams outside of the top 50. The Hurricanes benefited from an ACC schedule that featured North Carolina, Duke, and Louisville just once each with the latter two matchups at home providing the two biggest wins of the season. Miami did win three neutral site games in a row against quality competition in November in Puerto Rico, but a 4-5 record in ACC road games is concerning for a team that should still end up with a strong seed in the Big Dance. Miami did make the NIT final last season as there is some positive tournament experience with this group. Jim Larranaga did take George Mason to an improbable Final Four in 2006, but the 2013 Hurricanes were bounced in the Sweet 16 as a #2 seed after barely escaping in the second round in a 2/7 matchup.

Utah (Projected #3 to #5 seed):

The Utes closed the season with seven straight wins, but they didn’t play the cream of the crop of the conference down the stretch in the Pac-12 with only a narrow home win over Arizona really standing out. Utah went 0-3 vs. California and Oregon this season, arguably the conference’s top two teams and Utah went 8-6 in road and neutral site games with five of the team’s seven losses coming by double-digits. Utah’s offense really struggled with turnovers in many matchups as the backcourt is not the strength of this team with guard play often being more important in tournament play. Utah lost to the eventual national champion Duke in the Sweet 16 last season and getting that far could be a challenge this season for a team that has the potential to be a bit over-seeded with a non-conference profile that turned out rather strong but a Pac-12 resume that featured only one meeting each with Arizona, California, and USC. Pac-12 teams have some risk to be a bit overvalued by the committee due to the strong league ratings built on the great depth in the league.

Arizona (Projected #4 to #6 seed):

Arizona has been an elite team the past two seasons, running into Wisconsin in the past two Elite Eight games. Sean Miller is widely respected as one of the nation’s top coaches and he owns a great 17-8 NCAA Tournament record, going 11-4 at Arizona with three trips to the Elite Eight. This year’s team hasn’t fit the bill of a squad likely to make a deep run, turning over the roster significantly after last season with only a few holdovers. Arizona wound up 24-7, but fell to a tie for third in the deep Pac-12 and the Wildcats had an unusually light non-conference schedule with only wins over Boise State and Gonzaga worth mentioning. Arizona has often been dealt favorable west coast venues in the NCAA Tournament, but they won’t likely draw such protection this season and Denver and Spokane aren’t exactly nearby as this year’s opening weekend venues out west. An Arizona team that was 18-0 at home in Pac-12 play the past two seasons with only one win by fewer than nine points went just 8-1 in Tucson this season, with three of the wins by eight or fewer points as the Wildcats haven’t been the same caliber team as their reputation this season.

Texas (Projected #5 to #7 seed):

The Longhorns have some big wins this season, beating many of the top Big XII teams as well as picking up non-conference wins over North Carolina and Vanderbilt. Texas did lose 11 games in the regular season and went just 6-8 away from home. Incorporating many of the elements used for postseason success at VCU, Shaka Smart’s Texas team can force turnovers and the backcourt for the Longhorns can handle the press well as two wins over West Virginia displays. A concern for Texas in the postseason has to be free throw shooting however, hitting below 67% for the season and it will be tough to trust the Longhorns at the line in the final minutes of big games in the tournament. Texas had two overtime wins this season and five other wins by five or fewer points as the Longhorns weren’t far away from spending Selection Sunday sweating out the bubble. Texas will get a deserved boost in the ratings for a very difficult schedule this season, but the results were mostly inconsistent for this team and with limited size a smaller conference team that can shoot well could be a threat against Texas in the opening round.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 24 California enters Pac-12 tournament on a roll
March 7, 2016

BERKELEY, Calif. (AP) More than three months after leaving Las Vegas with a pair of early-season losses and searching for an identity, California returns to Sin City this week for the Pac-12 tournament on quite a roll.

The 24th-ranked Golden Bears (22-9) have won eight of nine games to earn the third seed and a first-round bye in the conference tournament as coach Cuonzo Martin's squad has done a good job fitting in talented freshmen Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb.

Cal started the season with high expectations and a No. 14 national ranking. But losses Thanksgiving weekend to San Diego State and Richmond started a stretch where the Bears went 10-8, leaving their NCAA Tournament hopes in peril.

But with improved defense following Martin's decision to give more time to big men Kingsley Okoroh and Kameron Rooks and improved chemistry as the players learned each other's strengths, Cal is playing as well as anyone in the conference heading into the tournament.

''You have to work toward it,'' senior guard Tyrone Wallace said. ''It did click in and once we started playing really well, everyone was playing for each other and everyone was playing selfless. It didn't matter how many shots you had. If one guy had it going or two guys had it going, just try to get them going. It did click in.''

The Bears will open play Thursday night against the winner of sixth-seeded Oregon State and No. 11 seed Arizona State. Cal has played both teams twice in the regular season, including a road win Saturday against the Sun Devils.

But Martin said most of the practice time leading up to the game will be spent on fine-tuning what his team was rather than game-plan for the opponent.

''In settings like this, you rely on your principles more than anything down the stretch of games because you don't have a lot of prep time to get ready for teams,'' he said. ''Everybody knows everybody, there's no new tricks. There's not a lot of time to put a whole new system in so it comes down to executing.''

Cal hopes a competitive season that featured nine conference games decided by fewer than 10 points will help a mostly untested tournament team thrive in March.

The Bears faltered late in a loss last Thursday night at Arizona before rebounding in the regular season finale to hold off the Sun Devils and wrap up the third seed.

''You've been through it, so you see it,'' Martin said. ''It's not a case of being shell-shocked if it happens again. You've been in those situations. It still comes down to a matter of making plays. This time of year, you'll be in those kinds of situations more times than not.''

Cal's strong season led to honors for some of its players. Brown was named first-team all-conference and the Pac-12 freshman of the year. Rabb was a second-team selection and Wallace was honorable mention despite missing five games with a broken hand. Brown and Rabb were also both picked to the all-freshman team.