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Saturday's Tip Sheet
March 4, 2016
**Iowa State at Kansas**
-- As of late Friday afternoon, several offshore books had Kansas (26-4 straight up, 19-9 against the spread) installed as an 8.5-point home favorite for Saturday’s Big 12 showdown vs. Iowa St. in Lawrence. A win over the Cyclones would almost certainly guarantee the Jayhawks of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament even if they lost their first game at the Big 12 Tourney.
-- Kansas is unbeaten in 15 home games this year, going 8-5 ATS. The Jayhawks have been single-digit home ‘chalk’ only three times, going 2-1 ATS.
-- Bill Self’s team has been cashing tickets galore in recent weeks, posting a 9-1 spread record in its last 10 games. KU is off perhaps its best performance of the season, smashing Texas by an 86-56 count Monday as a 3.5-point road favorite. Perry Ellis was the catalyst with 20 points, four rebounds and four assists. Ellis made 9-of-11 attempts from the field on a night when the Jayhawks shot 64.0 percent from the field and an astounding 11-of-16 from 3-point range (68.8%!). Frank Mason had 14 points and six assists compared to only one turnover, burying all three of his launches from long distance. Devonte’ Graham added 13 points, seven boards and a pair of steals.
-- KU is led by Ellis, the senior power forward who averages 16.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and shoots at a 52.3 percent clip from the field.
-- KU ranks 16th in the nation in scoring (81.7 PPG), eighth in field-goal percentage (49.3%) and second in 3-point percentage (43.0%).
-- Kansas is No. 1 in the RPI Rankings thanks to an incredible 8-3 record against the Top 25. KU is 13-3 versus the Top 50 and 17-3 against the Top 100. The Jayhawks swept Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas and Texas Tech. In addition, they have home wins over Kentucky and Oregon St. Furthermore, they won by 13 at San Diego St. and knocked off Vanderbilt on a neutral floor.
-- Iowa State (21-9 SU, 13-13-1 ATS) is No. 19 in the RPI, posting a 3-7 record against the Top 25, a 7-8 mark versus the Top 50 and an 11-9 record against the Top 100. The Cyclones have home wins over Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and Chattanooga. They have beaten Colorado and Virginia Tech on a neutral court, in addition to winning at Cincinnati.
-- Steve Prohm’s first team at ISU has lost six of its 10 road assignments while going 5-5 ATS. The Cyclones have been road underdogs five times, producing a 2-3 spread record with one outright victory (at Cincy).
-- Since losing five of eight games, Iowa St. has responded with back-to-back home wins over Kansas State (80-61) and Oklahoma State (58-50). ISU failed to cover the number in Monday’s win over the Cowboys as a 14-point home favorite. Abel Nader hit 6-of-9 shots from the field and 3-of-5 from downtown en route to scoring a team-best 19 points. Georges Niang finished with 17 points, 10 rebounds and four assists.
-- Niang is one of the nation’s best players with the size to play inside and the range to knock down 3-balls in bunches. Niang is averaging 19.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. He is making 54.2 percent of his attempts from the field, 37.8 percent from 3-point range and 81.3 percent at the free-throw line.
-- Iowa State has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings with Kansas, including an 85-72 win in Ames as a 1.5-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The 157 combined points slipped ‘under’ the 161-point total. Monte Morris stole the show by tallying 21 points and nine assists without committing a turnover. Niang had 19 points and six rebounds, while Nader contributed 17 points, four steals, three boards and three assists. In the losing effort for KU, Ellis had a team-high 23 points.
-- This rivalry has seen the ‘over’ go 10-4 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings. Also, the ‘over’ is 7-1 in the last eight encounters at Kansas.
-- The ‘under’ is 18-9 overall for KU, 8-5 in its home games. The Jayhawks have watched the ‘under’ hit at a 12-3-1 rate in their last 16 outings.
-- The ‘under’ is 14-12-1 overall for ISU, but the ‘over’ has gone 6-4 in its road tilts.
-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.
**North Carolina at Duke**
-- North Carolina will be in revenge mode and also aiming to clinch at least a share of the ACC regular-season title when it invade Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on its arch rival Saturday in Durham. As of late Friday afternoon, one offshore betting shop had the Blue Devils listed as one-point favorites.
-- Duke (22-8 straight up, 13-14-2 against the spread) has 15 of its 17 home game while posting an 8-7 spread record.
-- Duke is led by sophomore shooting guard Grayson Allen, who is averaging team-highs in scoring (21.2 points per game), assists (3.5 APG), field-goal percentage (48.0%) and steals (1.3 SPG). The best talent on the team is future lottery pick Brandon Ingram, who averages 16.9 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He also has 42 blocked shots, while Marshall Plumlee (8.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG) has a team-best 44 rejections.
-- Amile Jefferson (11.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG) remains ‘out’ with an injury. Mike Krzyzewski said “he still can’t run fluidly” earlier this week and indicated Jefferson may redshirt if he’s not ready to play for the NCAA Tournament.
-- Duke has won seven of its last nine games, including Tuesday’s 79-71 win over Wake Forest as a 16-point home favorite. Allen scored a game-high 30 points, grabbed five rebounds and has five steals. Ingram went for 15 points and 11 boards, while Plumlee finished with 13 points and 17 rebounds before fouling out.
-- Duke is No. 14 in the RPI Rankings, sporting a 5-6 record against the Top 50 and a 10-7 mark versus the Top 100. The Blue Devils have high-quality home wins over Virginia, Louisville and Indiana (by 20!), in addition to a win at UNC and a victory over VCU on a neutral court.
-- North Carolina (24-6 SU, 12-17-1 ATS) is No. 9 in the RPI, going 2-4 against the Top 25, 3-5 versus Top-50 foes and 12-6 against the Top 100. The Tar Heels’ best wins have come at home vs. Maryland, Pitt and Miami. They won at Syracuse and swept three non-conference games on a neutral court against Temple, Kansas State and UCLA.
-- Roy Williams’s team is led by senior forward Brice Johnson, who averages 16.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Johnson is hitting 61.6 percent of his shots from the field and has 36 blocked shots. Sophomore wing Justin Jackson (12.3 PPG) has a 93/32 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Senior point guard Marcus Paige (12.1 PPG) has had a disappointing campaign, but the streaky shooter is capable of getting hot at any time. Paige is draining only 33.6 percent of launches from downtown, though he has a solid 89/28 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Joel Berry II (12.2 PPG) averages team-highs in assists (3.7 APG) and steals (1.5 SPG).
-- When these schools met in Chapel Hill on Feb. 17, Duke won a 74-73 thriller in come-from-behind fashion as an 8.5-point road underdog. Allen dropped 23 points on the Tar Heels, including the go-ahead free throws with 1:09 remaining. Ingram produced 20 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and two blocked shots. In the losing effort, Johnson had 29 points and 19 rebounds. Paige struggled mightily, missing all six of his 3-point attempts. Paige was 2-of-10 from the field, scored only seven points and had the same amount of turnovers (three) as assists (three). Jackson had 13 points and eight boards.
-- Since losing at Duke, UNC has won three of its four games while going 2-2 ATS. The Tar Heels beat Syracuse 75-70 Monday at home, but they failed to cover as 13-point ‘chalk.’ Johnson was the catalyst on his Senior Night with 14 points and 10 boards.
-- UNC is 11th in the nation in scoring (83.1 PPG) despite ranking 297th in 3-point percentage (31.6%).
-- North Carolina owns an 8-2 spread record in its last 10 games at Duke, but it hasn’t won outright at Cameron since 2012.
-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings between these bitter rivals.
-- The ‘over’ is 16-14-1 overall for UNC, but the ‘under’ is 6-4 in its 10 road assignments. The ‘under’ is 7-2 for the Tar Heels in their last nine outings.
-- The ‘under’ is 17-12-2 overall for Duke, 9-7 in its home games. The ‘under’ has cashed in seven in a row for the Blue Devils and nine of their last 10.
-- Tip-off is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Chris Vernon is a sports radio titan in Memphis. I’m on his show every Friday during football season and occasionally on at other times to talk hoops and UFC. Verno tells me that Josh Pastner is actually safe at Memphis because the school can’t afford to hire a (quality) new coach because it’s a reach to even ante up the $10.5 million buyout to oust Pastner, whose team lost against Thursday night at Temple by a 72-62 count.
-- Michigan has won 14 of its 17 home games this year and the early numbers coming out offshore late Friday afternoon had it as a pick ‘em vs. Iowa in Ann Arbor. The Hawkeyes have lost five of their last six games while going 0-6 ATS.
-- Kentucky is favored by double digits against LSU at Rupp Arena. The Wildcats are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in SEC home games. They have won those contests by margins of 6, 10, 22, 19, 34, 19, 34, 10 and 25. The Tigers are 3-5 ATS with one outright win in eight games as underdogs. With that said, they won outright in their lone double-digit ‘dog spot (+10 at Vandy). Senior guard Keith Hornsby is listed as ‘questionable’ (hernia).
-- Alabama is a short underdog (3.5 offshore) at Georgia. Although the Crimson Tide has lost three of its last four games while going 0-4 ATS, it maintains a stellar record as an underdog. Avery Johnson’s team has been a ‘dog 18 times, compiling a 12-6 spread record with nine outright victories. ESPN.com’s Bracketolgoy guru Joe Lunardi’s currently has Alabama and Florida as a part of “Next Four Out.”
-- UF is favored by six at Missouri, so it can’t help itself on Saturday. Hell, a loss might even put the Gators on the NIT bubble.
-- Vanderbilt has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including Tuesday’s 86-69 win over Tennessee as a 13-point home ‘chalk.’ The Commodores have won six of their last seven with the lone defeat coming at Mississippi State, where they blew a 17-point second-half lead and lost on a buzzer beater. They have seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 in their last eight outings. Kevin Stallings’ team head to College Station to close the regular season against Texas A&M. The Aggies have bounced back from a four-game losing streak both SU and ATS to win five in a row, going 4-1 ATS in the process. They have seen the ‘under’ cash at a frenetic 12-3 clip in their last 15 contests. Offshores had Texas A&M as a four-point home fave.
-- Ohio State is a double-digit underdog at Michigan State. The Buckeyes have taken the cash in both previous spots as double-digit ‘dogs. They own a 7-6 spread record with five outright wins as ‘dogs this season.
-- 5Dimes has posted odds for all the conference tournaments. UNC is the +230 ‘chalk’ to win the ACC at Verizon Center in Washington D.C. The next-shortest odds belong to Virginia (+270), Duke (+350), Miami (+425), Notre Dame (16/1), Pitt (22/1) and Syracuse (34/1).
-- The SEC looks like this: Kentucky (+145) Vandy (+310), Texas A&M (+375), Florida (12/1), South Carolina (17/1), LSU (18/1), Arkansas (30/1), Georgia (55/1), Ole Miss (65/1), Mississippi State (75/1), Alabama (85/1), Tennessee (85/1) and Auburn (500/1).
-- And the Big 12...Kansas (+140), West Virginia (+290), Oklahoma (+350), Iowa St. (+950), Baylor (11/1), Texas (14/1), Texas Tech (50/1), Kansas State (70/1), Oklahoma State (150/1) and TCU (800/1).
March 4, 2016
**Iowa State at Kansas**
-- As of late Friday afternoon, several offshore books had Kansas (26-4 straight up, 19-9 against the spread) installed as an 8.5-point home favorite for Saturday’s Big 12 showdown vs. Iowa St. in Lawrence. A win over the Cyclones would almost certainly guarantee the Jayhawks of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament even if they lost their first game at the Big 12 Tourney.
-- Kansas is unbeaten in 15 home games this year, going 8-5 ATS. The Jayhawks have been single-digit home ‘chalk’ only three times, going 2-1 ATS.
-- Bill Self’s team has been cashing tickets galore in recent weeks, posting a 9-1 spread record in its last 10 games. KU is off perhaps its best performance of the season, smashing Texas by an 86-56 count Monday as a 3.5-point road favorite. Perry Ellis was the catalyst with 20 points, four rebounds and four assists. Ellis made 9-of-11 attempts from the field on a night when the Jayhawks shot 64.0 percent from the field and an astounding 11-of-16 from 3-point range (68.8%!). Frank Mason had 14 points and six assists compared to only one turnover, burying all three of his launches from long distance. Devonte’ Graham added 13 points, seven boards and a pair of steals.
-- KU is led by Ellis, the senior power forward who averages 16.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and shoots at a 52.3 percent clip from the field.
-- KU ranks 16th in the nation in scoring (81.7 PPG), eighth in field-goal percentage (49.3%) and second in 3-point percentage (43.0%).
-- Kansas is No. 1 in the RPI Rankings thanks to an incredible 8-3 record against the Top 25. KU is 13-3 versus the Top 50 and 17-3 against the Top 100. The Jayhawks swept Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas and Texas Tech. In addition, they have home wins over Kentucky and Oregon St. Furthermore, they won by 13 at San Diego St. and knocked off Vanderbilt on a neutral floor.
-- Iowa State (21-9 SU, 13-13-1 ATS) is No. 19 in the RPI, posting a 3-7 record against the Top 25, a 7-8 mark versus the Top 50 and an 11-9 record against the Top 100. The Cyclones have home wins over Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and Chattanooga. They have beaten Colorado and Virginia Tech on a neutral court, in addition to winning at Cincinnati.
-- Steve Prohm’s first team at ISU has lost six of its 10 road assignments while going 5-5 ATS. The Cyclones have been road underdogs five times, producing a 2-3 spread record with one outright victory (at Cincy).
-- Since losing five of eight games, Iowa St. has responded with back-to-back home wins over Kansas State (80-61) and Oklahoma State (58-50). ISU failed to cover the number in Monday’s win over the Cowboys as a 14-point home favorite. Abel Nader hit 6-of-9 shots from the field and 3-of-5 from downtown en route to scoring a team-best 19 points. Georges Niang finished with 17 points, 10 rebounds and four assists.
-- Niang is one of the nation’s best players with the size to play inside and the range to knock down 3-balls in bunches. Niang is averaging 19.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. He is making 54.2 percent of his attempts from the field, 37.8 percent from 3-point range and 81.3 percent at the free-throw line.
-- Iowa State has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings with Kansas, including an 85-72 win in Ames as a 1.5-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The 157 combined points slipped ‘under’ the 161-point total. Monte Morris stole the show by tallying 21 points and nine assists without committing a turnover. Niang had 19 points and six rebounds, while Nader contributed 17 points, four steals, three boards and three assists. In the losing effort for KU, Ellis had a team-high 23 points.
-- This rivalry has seen the ‘over’ go 10-4 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings. Also, the ‘over’ is 7-1 in the last eight encounters at Kansas.
-- The ‘under’ is 18-9 overall for KU, 8-5 in its home games. The Jayhawks have watched the ‘under’ hit at a 12-3-1 rate in their last 16 outings.
-- The ‘under’ is 14-12-1 overall for ISU, but the ‘over’ has gone 6-4 in its road tilts.
-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.
**North Carolina at Duke**
-- North Carolina will be in revenge mode and also aiming to clinch at least a share of the ACC regular-season title when it invade Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on its arch rival Saturday in Durham. As of late Friday afternoon, one offshore betting shop had the Blue Devils listed as one-point favorites.
-- Duke (22-8 straight up, 13-14-2 against the spread) has 15 of its 17 home game while posting an 8-7 spread record.
-- Duke is led by sophomore shooting guard Grayson Allen, who is averaging team-highs in scoring (21.2 points per game), assists (3.5 APG), field-goal percentage (48.0%) and steals (1.3 SPG). The best talent on the team is future lottery pick Brandon Ingram, who averages 16.9 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He also has 42 blocked shots, while Marshall Plumlee (8.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG) has a team-best 44 rejections.
-- Amile Jefferson (11.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG) remains ‘out’ with an injury. Mike Krzyzewski said “he still can’t run fluidly” earlier this week and indicated Jefferson may redshirt if he’s not ready to play for the NCAA Tournament.
-- Duke has won seven of its last nine games, including Tuesday’s 79-71 win over Wake Forest as a 16-point home favorite. Allen scored a game-high 30 points, grabbed five rebounds and has five steals. Ingram went for 15 points and 11 boards, while Plumlee finished with 13 points and 17 rebounds before fouling out.
-- Duke is No. 14 in the RPI Rankings, sporting a 5-6 record against the Top 50 and a 10-7 mark versus the Top 100. The Blue Devils have high-quality home wins over Virginia, Louisville and Indiana (by 20!), in addition to a win at UNC and a victory over VCU on a neutral court.
-- North Carolina (24-6 SU, 12-17-1 ATS) is No. 9 in the RPI, going 2-4 against the Top 25, 3-5 versus Top-50 foes and 12-6 against the Top 100. The Tar Heels’ best wins have come at home vs. Maryland, Pitt and Miami. They won at Syracuse and swept three non-conference games on a neutral court against Temple, Kansas State and UCLA.
-- Roy Williams’s team is led by senior forward Brice Johnson, who averages 16.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Johnson is hitting 61.6 percent of his shots from the field and has 36 blocked shots. Sophomore wing Justin Jackson (12.3 PPG) has a 93/32 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Senior point guard Marcus Paige (12.1 PPG) has had a disappointing campaign, but the streaky shooter is capable of getting hot at any time. Paige is draining only 33.6 percent of launches from downtown, though he has a solid 89/28 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Joel Berry II (12.2 PPG) averages team-highs in assists (3.7 APG) and steals (1.5 SPG).
-- When these schools met in Chapel Hill on Feb. 17, Duke won a 74-73 thriller in come-from-behind fashion as an 8.5-point road underdog. Allen dropped 23 points on the Tar Heels, including the go-ahead free throws with 1:09 remaining. Ingram produced 20 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and two blocked shots. In the losing effort, Johnson had 29 points and 19 rebounds. Paige struggled mightily, missing all six of his 3-point attempts. Paige was 2-of-10 from the field, scored only seven points and had the same amount of turnovers (three) as assists (three). Jackson had 13 points and eight boards.
-- Since losing at Duke, UNC has won three of its four games while going 2-2 ATS. The Tar Heels beat Syracuse 75-70 Monday at home, but they failed to cover as 13-point ‘chalk.’ Johnson was the catalyst on his Senior Night with 14 points and 10 boards.
-- UNC is 11th in the nation in scoring (83.1 PPG) despite ranking 297th in 3-point percentage (31.6%).
-- North Carolina owns an 8-2 spread record in its last 10 games at Duke, but it hasn’t won outright at Cameron since 2012.
-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings between these bitter rivals.
-- The ‘over’ is 16-14-1 overall for UNC, but the ‘under’ is 6-4 in its 10 road assignments. The ‘under’ is 7-2 for the Tar Heels in their last nine outings.
-- The ‘under’ is 17-12-2 overall for Duke, 9-7 in its home games. The ‘under’ has cashed in seven in a row for the Blue Devils and nine of their last 10.
-- Tip-off is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Chris Vernon is a sports radio titan in Memphis. I’m on his show every Friday during football season and occasionally on at other times to talk hoops and UFC. Verno tells me that Josh Pastner is actually safe at Memphis because the school can’t afford to hire a (quality) new coach because it’s a reach to even ante up the $10.5 million buyout to oust Pastner, whose team lost against Thursday night at Temple by a 72-62 count.
-- Michigan has won 14 of its 17 home games this year and the early numbers coming out offshore late Friday afternoon had it as a pick ‘em vs. Iowa in Ann Arbor. The Hawkeyes have lost five of their last six games while going 0-6 ATS.
-- Kentucky is favored by double digits against LSU at Rupp Arena. The Wildcats are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in SEC home games. They have won those contests by margins of 6, 10, 22, 19, 34, 19, 34, 10 and 25. The Tigers are 3-5 ATS with one outright win in eight games as underdogs. With that said, they won outright in their lone double-digit ‘dog spot (+10 at Vandy). Senior guard Keith Hornsby is listed as ‘questionable’ (hernia).
-- Alabama is a short underdog (3.5 offshore) at Georgia. Although the Crimson Tide has lost three of its last four games while going 0-4 ATS, it maintains a stellar record as an underdog. Avery Johnson’s team has been a ‘dog 18 times, compiling a 12-6 spread record with nine outright victories. ESPN.com’s Bracketolgoy guru Joe Lunardi’s currently has Alabama and Florida as a part of “Next Four Out.”
-- UF is favored by six at Missouri, so it can’t help itself on Saturday. Hell, a loss might even put the Gators on the NIT bubble.
-- Vanderbilt has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including Tuesday’s 86-69 win over Tennessee as a 13-point home ‘chalk.’ The Commodores have won six of their last seven with the lone defeat coming at Mississippi State, where they blew a 17-point second-half lead and lost on a buzzer beater. They have seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 in their last eight outings. Kevin Stallings’ team head to College Station to close the regular season against Texas A&M. The Aggies have bounced back from a four-game losing streak both SU and ATS to win five in a row, going 4-1 ATS in the process. They have seen the ‘under’ cash at a frenetic 12-3 clip in their last 15 contests. Offshores had Texas A&M as a four-point home fave.
-- Ohio State is a double-digit underdog at Michigan State. The Buckeyes have taken the cash in both previous spots as double-digit ‘dogs. They own a 7-6 spread record with five outright wins as ‘dogs this season.
-- 5Dimes has posted odds for all the conference tournaments. UNC is the +230 ‘chalk’ to win the ACC at Verizon Center in Washington D.C. The next-shortest odds belong to Virginia (+270), Duke (+350), Miami (+425), Notre Dame (16/1), Pitt (22/1) and Syracuse (34/1).
-- The SEC looks like this: Kentucky (+145) Vandy (+310), Texas A&M (+375), Florida (12/1), South Carolina (17/1), LSU (18/1), Arkansas (30/1), Georgia (55/1), Ole Miss (65/1), Mississippi State (75/1), Alabama (85/1), Tennessee (85/1) and Auburn (500/1).
-- And the Big 12...Kansas (+140), West Virginia (+290), Oklahoma (+350), Iowa St. (+950), Baylor (11/1), Texas (14/1), Texas Tech (50/1), Kansas State (70/1), Oklahoma State (150/1) and TCU (800/1).
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