Announcement

**Udog** · 02-25-2016, 08:43 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- George Mason 76, VCU 69-- Not a good time for this to happen to the Rams.

-- Houston 88, UCF 61-- Kelvin Sampson is quietly having a nice season.

-- Xavier 90, Villanova 83-- Had the feel of a Saturday night at Big East tourney.

-- Wisconsin 67, Iowa 59-- How does Greg Gard not get the Badgers' job?

-- Colorado 75, Arizona 72-- Sean Miller always looks angry these days.

-- Cal-Irvine 90, Long Beach State 67- Teams could meet again in Big West semis.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......

13) Oregon State 82, Washington 81-- One of the best endings all season; Stephen Thompson Jr knocked down a 3 at the buzzer as pandemonium erupted in Corvallis. This was a fun game to watch, except for when thunderstorms (??) in beautiful upstate New York knocked DirecTV off the air for a while in the first half.

Seriously, whats the deal with thunderstorms in February?

12) HBO is doing a 5-part reality show on Gonzaga's basketball team; they picked the wrong year, since the Zags might miss the tournament for the first time in 19 years but the end of this week's episode was very good TV.

Gonzaga loses its home finale to rival St Mary's, meaning the Gaels won the regular season title and put Gonzaga in jeopardy of missing the NCAAs. Not good; after the game in the locker room, the players are informed they have to go back on the court to greet the students, apparently a traditional event. They're not that happy about it.

When they get back up to the court, there are a couple thousand students still there, cheering for their fellow students- they start chanting "Its not over!!! Its not over!!!" as in, the WCC tournament can still get them into the NCAAs. I may not be doing it justice here, but it was a fairly touching moment. Something we would never have seen if not for the reality show-- its worth your time, if you like college hoop.

11) Villanova lost last night, meaning that Michigan State maintains the longest time this year at #1 (23 days) before they lost a game. Villanova had gotten up to 16.

10) Top 5 teams in the AP poll are 22-24 on the road this year; this would be the first time ever top 5 teams finished under .500 in true road games.

9) East Tennessee State is 8-1 in Southern Conference games this season that were decided by 6 or less points or in overtime. Thats good coaching, veteran guards.

8) A 33-year old guy in England named Sam Smith got drunk with friends and legally changed his name to Bacon Double Cheeseburger. I'm guessing he isn't married

7) Championship Week starts next week, one of the best times of the year; when the OVC title game comes on, remember that the last four OVC title games were decided by a total of 11 points. Evenly matched teams in that league

6) Nike founder Phil Knight donated $400M to Stanford for a scholarship program; who the hell has $400M to just give away?

5) If I ever coach basketball again, I'll be a stickler for my team passing the ball inside the arc at least once a possession, or at least reversing the ball so it gets to both sides of the floor. I see college teams dribble down, make one pass and jack a 3 and it makes me sick. Good offenses make the team's defense work on every possession.

Guaranteed if you charted points per possession, teams that shoot those quick 3's don't do as well. I'm not talking about shots taken in transition when you have a 2-on-1 or 3-on-2, I'm talking half-court sets. Not too many Steph Currys in this world.

4) Good H&R Block commercial with Pelicans' star Anthony Davis walking down the street with his H&R Block accountant to do his taxes. Encouraging to see a guy who plays for a smaller market team getting a commercial or two.

3) Ohio State lost its best player, Jae'Sean Tate (shoulder) for the season.

2) Houston Astros are expected to have an Opening Day paytoll of $96.7M this year, after making the playoffs LY. Three years ago, Houston's payroll was $18.8M. Wait until Altuve and Correa are there a few more years; Astros will really have to pay the piper then. Houston is America's 4th-biggest city- they'll be able to afford it.

1) Miami Marlins have banned facial hair this season, as if they have nothing else to worry about. What is the point of this? How does this help the players play better or the coaches coach better? Some things I just do not understand.

**Udog** · 02-25-2016, 08:47 AM

NBA

Thursday, February 25

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Game of the Day: Rockets at Trail Blazers
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The Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with the Rockets.

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5, 222)

The Portland Trail Blazers are no longer thinking about just making the playoffs, but about earning a higher seed. The Trail Blazers are winners of six straight and 15 of their last 18 and will try to disappoint another team chasing them in the standings when they host the Houston Rockets on Thursday.

Portland came out of the All-Star break in a three-team race for the last two spots in the Western Conference with Houston and Utah but has continued its surge to put those team in the rear-view mirror. The dynamic backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum have each gone over 30 points in the last two games after Lillard responded to his All-Star snub by dropping 51 points on the Golden State Warriors on Friday. The Rockets had a chance to claim eighth place in the West on Tuesday but could not find a way around Utah in a 117-114 overtime loss. Houston has dropped seven of its last 10 games, including a pair of losses to the Trail Blazers by an average of 15 points.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, ROOT (Houston), CSN Northwest (Portland)

LINE HISTORY: The Blazers opened as 4.5-point home favorites against the visiting Rockets. The total opened at a high 222.

INJURY REPORT:

Rockets - SF M. Thornton (questionable Thursday, acquisition), PF D. Motiejunas (out indefinitely, back).

Trail Blazers - No injuries to report.

POWER RANKINGS: Rockets (-0.9) - Trail Blazers (-3.9) + home court (-3) = Trail Blazers (-6)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "It's not often we get the same matchup thrice in a three-week stretch, so this somewhat turns into a handicapper's conundrum. I can say one thing, the sharp NBA players have been riding high on the Blazers since before the break. Currently, we have around 70 percent of the action on the home squad, and it looks like the spread will climb to -5 at some point soon. Portland overs have been a hot bet of late but we've seen more money on the under in this one thus far."

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The hottest team in the league right now, the Blazers have won six straight. But a long road trip looms and they are just 11-16 away from home. Meanwhile, what a disaster its been in Houston. Phoenix accounts for two of the Rockets three wins since January 25th."

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (28-29, 25-32 ATS, 34-23 O/U): James Harden is doing his part with an average of 34.6 points in the last five games and went for 42 at Utah on Tuesday. Jason Terry buried a 3-pointer to force overtime but could not get another to fall as the extra period came to a close. “This might have been the toughest loss of the season,” Terry told ESPN. “We fought back. Give credit to Utah, they were very resilient, hit big shots. But this one is going to sit with us. We're going to be (an angry) team when we go into Portland on Wednesday.”

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (30-27, 32-25 ATS, 31-26 O/U): Lillard joined Geoff Petrie (1970) as the only players in franchise history to score 30 or more points in five straight games with 34 on Tuesday in a 112-104 over the Brooklyn Nets. Lillard downplayed the big scoring numbers and insisted the small things are the reason for the win streak. “I say it all the time - we don’t have the luxury of coming in and expecting somebody to lay down to us or expecting to win games, period,” Lillard told reporters. “We’ve got to come out, we’ve got to play four quarters, we’ve got to do those small things that make us the team that we’ve become.”

TRENDS:

* Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five versus Western Conference opponents.
* Rockets are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
* Over is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last five games overall.
* Over is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 road games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are backing the Trail Blazers in this Western Conference matchup with 61 percent of wagers on Portland. As for the total, 58 percent of wagers are on the over.

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**Udog** · 02-25-2016, 08:49 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, February 25

Hot teams
-- Orlando won four of last six games (9-4HU). Warriors are 10-1 in last 11 games, but covered only one of last six.
-- Bucks won four of their last five games (2-5 last 7AU). Celtics won six of their last nine games (6-1 last 7HF).
-- Oklahoma City won eight of last 11 games (2-8 last 10AF). New Orleans won four of last six games (3-4HU).
-- Portland won its last six games (9-3 last 12HF).
-- Spurs won nine of last ten games, covered one of last five. Jazz won its last five home games (5-2HU).

Cold teams
-- Nets lost three of their last four games (0-0AF). Phoenix lost its last 12 games (4-3HU with Watson as coach).
-- Rockets lost four of their last five games (6-10AU).

Series records
-- Warriors won last four games with Orlando.
-- Celtics lost seven of last ten games with MIlwaukee.
-- Thunder won three of last four games with New Orleans.
-- Nets won six of last eight games with Phoenix.
-- Trailblazers won four of last five games with Houston.
-- Spurs won eight of last ten games with Utah.

Totals
-- Four of last five Orlando games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Milwaukee games stayed under. Last six Boston games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Thunder games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten Brooklyn games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Portland games went over total.
-- Five of last seven San Antonio-Utah games went over.

Back/backs
-- Golden State is 10-4 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Oklahoma City is 2-5 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- San Antonio is 11-0 SU if it played night before, 7-4 vs spread; 0-4 in last four, after 7-0 in first seven.

**Udog** · 02-25-2016, 08:50 AM

NBA

Thursday, February 25

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. ORLANDO
Golden State is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing Golden State
Orlando is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

7:30 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. BOSTON
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

8:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Oklahoma City10-3-1 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

9:00 PM
BROOKLYN vs. PHOENIX
Brooklyn is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Brooklyn is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Phoenix is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

10:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. UTAH
San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio's last 8 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games when playing San Antonio
Utah is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games when playing San Antonio

10:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. PORTLAND
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Portland's last 19 games when playing Houston
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston

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**Udog** · 02-25-2016, 10:16 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, February 25

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GOLDEN STATE (51 - 5) at ORLANDO (25 - 30) - 2/25/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 88-65 ATS (+16.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 81-59 ATS (+16.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 51-38 ATS (+9.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 3-1 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-0 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (24 - 33) at BOSTON (33 - 25) - 2/25/2016, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 333-401 ATS (-108.1 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 81-61 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
BOSTON is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 50-32 ATS (+14.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 51-33 ATS (+14.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 121-87 ATS (+25.3 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
BOSTON is 92-128 ATS (-48.8 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
BOSTON is 93-124 ATS (-43.4 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 5-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 5-4 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (41 - 16) at NEW ORLEANS (22 - 34) - 2/25/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-30 ATS (-12.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in road games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-33 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-4 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-4 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (15 - 42) at PHOENIX (14 - 43) - 2/25/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
BROOKLYN is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 22-35 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 14-23 ATS (-11.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHOENIX is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 3-2 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 3-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (28 - 29) at PORTLAND (30 - 27) - 2/25/2016, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
PORTLAND is 50-36 ATS (+10.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 69-101 ATS (-42.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 9-7 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 9-7 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
12 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (48 - 9) at UTAH (28 - 28) - 2/25/2016, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 5-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 7-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 02-25-2016, 10:56 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, February 25

Golden State @ Orlando

Game 701-702
February 25, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
126.157
Orlando
116.106
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 10
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 7 1/2
221 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-7 1/2); Over

Milwaukee @ Boston

Game 703-704
February 25, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
113.149
Boston
123.585
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 10 1/2
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 8
216
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-8); Over

Oklahoma City @ New Orleans

Game 705-706
February 25, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
119.803
New Orleans
117.888
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 6
221 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+6); Under

Brooklyn @ Phoenix

Game 707-708
February 25, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brooklyn
110.241
Phoenix
111.053
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Phoenix
by 1
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brooklyn
by 2
209
Dunkel Pick:
Phoenix
(+2); Under

Houston @ Portland

Game 709-710
February 25, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
116.931
Portland
129.413
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 12 1/2
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 4 1/2
222
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(-4 1/2); Over

San Antonio @ Utah

Game 711-712
February 25, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
130.009
Utah
124.095
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 6
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 3
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-3); N/A

**Udog** · 02-25-2016, 12:20 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, February 25

Golden State at Orlando, 7:05 ET
Golden State: 41-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Orlando: 22-7 OVER after 2 games forcing opp to commit 20 or + turnovers

Milwaukee at Boston, 7:35 ET
Milwaukee: 1-10 ATS after playing a game as favorite
Boston: 11-2 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210

Oklahoma City at New Orleans, 8:05 ET
Oklahoma City: 7-17 ATS in road games
New Orleans: 34-20 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Brooklyn at Pheonix, 9:05 ET
Brooklyn: 17-5 ATS in road games off a road loss
Phoenix: 13-23 ATS after playing a game as an underdog

Houston at Portland, 10:05 ET
Houston: 29-16 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points
Portland: 10-22 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games

San Antonio at Utah, 10:35 ET
San Antonio: 1-5 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road wins
Utah: 5-1 ATS as a home underdog

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/25

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/25

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