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**Udog** · 02-20-2016, 08:43 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Six of the best minor league prospects for the Washington Nationals:

1) Lucas Giolito, P-- Made eight starts in AA last year as a 21-year old.

2) Trea Turner, SS-- Hit .322 in minors; got his first 40 MLB at-bats LY.

4) Erick Fedde, P-- UNLV alum has already had Tommy John surgery.

7) AJ Cole, P-- Nats traded him away in 2011, got him back 16 months later.

21) Rhett Wiseman OF-- Why does Vanderbilt have such a good baseball program?

29) Mariano Rivera Jr, P-- Allowed 51 hits in 33 IP in his first pro season.

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind.......

13) RIP Tony Phillps-- He played 18 years in major leagues, nine with the A's-- he was a big reason they won the '89 World Series. Today he would've made a lot more money-- his level of versatility wasn't valued as much then as it is now. Had a career OB% of .374, which is pretty damn good. RIP, sir.

12) Was watching Charlotte-Marshall game Thursday night; Mike D'Antoni's brother coaches Marshall, and they're pretty good. So they interview this senior citizen in the stands-- it is Mike/Dan D'Antoni's father- the guy is 102 years old!!!!. Still sharp too-- apparently he was a really good coach back in the day. Good stuff.

11) I've talked a little bit here about the soon-to be-vacant UNLV basketball job; has no one brought up Tom Thibodeau's name for this job? Thibodeau is a hoop genius; he would be a great college coach-- he was one of Jerry Tarkanian's assistants during Tark's brief foray into NBA coaching (with the Spurs). He'd be a good hire there.

10) Ole Miss drew 10,129 fans for its baseball season opener. Wow.

9) Top 5 college college basketball teams have already lost 33 games this season; 20 of those 33 losses were to teams not in the top 25 at the time of their upset win.

8) When North Carolina lost to Duke Wednesday, Brice Johnson didn't take a shot in the last 4:44 of the game- his last hoop put UNC up by 4. You'd think you'd want your best player taking shots down the stretch, but that did not happen.

7) Clippers are 17-13 this season when Blake Griffin plays, 19-5 when he doesn't. This is a case where a statistic taken out of context becomes misleading; obviously the Clippers are better when they have Griffin. Clippers host Golden State tonight, night after the Warriors got crushed by 31 in Portland.

6) Los Angeles Rams cleared $24M of cap room by releasing three veteran players, including MLB James Lauranitis, which surprised me. When you haven't had a year above .500 since 2003, everyone is expendable, especially the older players.

5) Underrated basketball analyst-- Jon Crispin on Big Ten Network-- he is smart, he talks about the game and he can be funny. Better than 90% of ESPN's analysts.

4) Cleveland Indians signed Juan Uribe to a contract to play 3B this year; Uribe will be 37 next month- he has played for six teams- he played for three just last year.

3) Wake Forest suspended its best player for two games, tossed another kid off the team for breaking team rules, Cornelius Hudson is the kid who got tossed; he is the younger brother of NFL wide receiver Michael Crabtree, who played at Texas Tech, so you wonder if he'll wind up at Ark-Little Rock, since UALR coach Chris Beard was a Tech assistant when Crabtree went there.

2) Knicks signed Jimmer Fredette to a 10-day contract. He can't make things worse.

1) March is going to be a great month; Championship Week is going to have more meaning than it has in any year since the NCAAs went to 64 teams. There are zero great teams, but a ton of really good ones who can get lucky and win it all.

**Udog** · 02-20-2016, 08:46 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, February 20

Hot teams
-- Washington won three of last four games (7-3 last 10AU). Miami won seven of its last ten games (4-7 last 11HF). .
-- Minnesota won three of its last five games (3-8HF).
-- Warriors won 11 of their last 12 games (3-5 last 8AF). Clippers won four of their last five games (1-2HU).

Cold teams
-- Milwaukee lost eight of last 11 games (1-5 last 6AU). Atlanta lost three of its last four games (5-3 last 8HF).
-- Knicks lost their last seven games (7-5 last 12AU).

Series records
-- Wizards won five of last six games with Miami.
-- Hawks won eight of last ten games with Milwaukee.
-- Knicks won six of last nine games with Minnesota.
-- Clippers lost their last four games with Golden State.

Totals
-- Three of last four Miami games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Atlanta-Milwaukee games stayed under.
-- Over is 7-0-1 in Minnesota games if it played night before.
-- Four of last five Clipper games satyed under the total.

Back/backs
-- Washington is playing third night in row because of a makeup game Thursday; they're 5-3 vs spread last eight times they played nite before. Miami is 5-4 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Bucks are 9-5 vs spread if they played nite before, 0-3 in last three. Atlanta is 3-7 vs spread last ten times they played night before.
-- Knicks lost three of last four if they played night before. Minnesota is 4-4 vs spread if it played night before (1-7SU).
-- Golden State is 9-3 vs spread if it played the night before.

NBA

Saturday, February 20

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

7:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. MIAMI
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Washington's last 16 games on the road
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
NEW YORK vs. MINNESOTA
New York is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
New York is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. LA CLIPPERS
Golden State is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Golden State is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of the LA Clippers last 12 games when playing at home against Golden State

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**Udog** · 02-20-2016, 09:42 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, February 20

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WASHINGTON (25 - 28) at MIAMI (30 - 24) - 2/20/2016, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 6-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-4 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (22 - 33) at ATLANTA (31 - 25) - 2/20/2016, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 332-400 ATS (-108.0 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 135-178 ATS (-60.8 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 82-68 ATS (+7.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points since 1996.
ATLANTA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-3 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 6-2 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (23 - 33) at MINNESOTA (17 - 38) - 2/20/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 21-33 ATS (-15.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 58-76 ATS (-25.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in home games this season.
MINNESOTA is 329-390 ATS (-100.0 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
MINNESOTA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MINNESOTA is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (48 - 5) at LA CLIPPERS (36 - 18) - 2/20/2016, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 80-57 ATS (+17.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-32 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 99-137 ATS (-51.7 Units) in February games since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 182-243 ATS (-85.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-7 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-7 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 02-20-2016, 09:53 AM

There's no place like home for NBA teams off lengthy road trips

If you had laid $110 to win $100 on every NBA team playing its first game at home following a road trip of three or more games, you would be up $1,410.

On December 15 of last year, the Kobe Bryant Farewell Tour returned to Staples Center following the NBA’s only eight-game road trip of the season (to date) to annihilate the Milwaukee Bucks by the final score of 113-95 while simultaneously covering the point spread as 3.5-point underdogs.

Milwaukee may be perceived as a downtrodden franchise with a current record of just 22-32, but the Lakers’ win on that fateful night was remarkable for a variety of reasons: not only was that 18-point victory the club’s second-biggest success of the season, but it came on the heels of a daunting road trip in which Los Angeles posted seven losses in eight games - with five of those defeats coming by way of double digits - lowlighted by an embarrassing 103-91 loss at league-worst Philadelphia to kick things off.

For a Lakers team that currently owns the Association’s second-worst record of the 2015-2016 season (11-44), that aforementioned win over Milwaukee marked just the fourth Los Angeles victory through the first 25 contests of Kobe Bryant’s final lap across the pool.

But the interesting takeaway here is that exactly one month prior to blowing the Bucks clear across the City of Angels, the Lakers returned home to Staples Center following a five-game road trip in which the team went 1-4 to smash Andre Drummond and the Detroit Pistons 97-85 while covering the spread as 4.5-point underdogs.

So what gives? How exactly does a club with the NBA’s second-worst scoring differential at minus-9.6, which also happens to be winning only 20 percent of the time this season, post two double-digit outright victories while in the underdog role in exactly one month’s time?

I’ll give you a hint: it’s the same reason why you sleep so well that first night home following a four-day bender in Las Vegas.

Road trips, whether coming in the form of business or pleasure, are almost always accompanied by a measurable level of both intrigue and charm. But when you consider the hassles of airport security, middle seats and bumbling rental car agencies, there’s nothing quite like a night spent sleeping between your own sheets on a mattress that knows exactly how your body likes to operate when powering down after a long day.

Maybe Kobe and the Lakers just so happened to get lucky in those matchups against the Bucks and Pistons. Or maybe, just maybe, there’s more here than meets the eye. Do NBA teams tend to perform at a higher level in their first home game following a long road trip, thus creating a possible betting edge worth exploring? Or were those two Los Angeles victories outliers than warrant little to no consideration at all?

So far through the 2015-2016 NBA season, teams coming off a road trip of three or more games are 62-35 SU (.652) and 57-39-1 against the spread (.593) in their first game back at home.

That means if you had laid $110 to win $100 on every NBA team that was playing its first game at home following a road trip of three or more contests this season, you would currently be up $1,410.

Here’s a breakdown of how NBA teams have performed both SU and ATS in their first home game following a road trip of three or more matchups:

First home game after 3-game road trip: 31-19 SU (.620), 29-20-1 ATS (.592)
First home game after 4-game road trip: 15-9 SU (.625), 14-10 ATS (.583)
First home game after 5-game road trip: 10-4 SU (.714), 9-5 SU (.643)
First home game after 6-game road trip: 4-2 SU (.666), 3-3 ATS (.500)
First home game after 7-game road trip: 1-1 SU (.500), 1-1 ATS (.500)
First home game after 8-game road trip: 1-0 SU (1.000), 1-0 ATS (1.000)

And it’s not just the Lakers who have found success on their home court following a lengthy road trip, it’s the entire NBA. In fact, even the bottom-dwelling, tank-embracing Philadelphia 76ers (8-45, worst in NBA) are turning a profit this season when playing their first home game following a road trip of three or more contests (2-1 SU/ATS).

Granted, the edge gained with this information isn’t significant enough to warrant a sizeable increase in your average wager size, but it is useful to the point where it adds yet another weapon to the ever-growing arsenal of angles we’re deploying against the sportsbooks.

Now go and get yourself a great night of rest because the NBA is back from the break and there for the taking.

**Udog** · 02-20-2016, 12:40 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, February 20

Washington @ Miami

Game 501-502
February 20, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
121.119
Miami
118.207
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 1 1/2
195 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+1 1/2); Over

Milwaukee @ Atlanta

Game 503-504
February 20, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
116.507
Atlanta
122.093
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 5 1/2
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 9
204 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(+9); Over

New York @ Minnesota

Game 505-506
February 20, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
112.570
Minnesota
119.408
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7
200
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
207
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-1 1/2); Under

Golden State @ LA Clippers

Game 507-508
February 20, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
127.858
LA Clippers
121.962
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 6
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 4 1/2
223
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-4 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 02-20-2016, 01:02 PM

NBA

Saturday, February 20

Hot bet vs cold bet tonight: Nuggets (8-2 ATS last 10) @ Kings (1-9 ATS last 10). Kings 4-pt faves

Announcement

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/20

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/20

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