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**Udog** · 02-18-2016, 07:20 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Six of the best minor league prospects of the Detroit Tigers......

1) Michael Fulmer, P-- Acquired from Mets in the Cespedes trade.

4) Christin Stewart, OF-- Chosen with pick they got when Max Scherzer bolted.

5) JaCoby Jones, SS-- LSU alum acquired from Pirates for Joakim Soria.

7) Joe Jimenez, P-- 126 strikeouts in 88 innings in relief in three seasons.

8) Dixon Machado, SS-- Got 68 ABs with the big club last season.

12) Buck Farmer, P-- 0-5, 8.15 in 50 major league innings so far.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but......

13) Albany 82, Stony Brook 70-- Had a fun time watching my alma mater end Stony Brook's 18-game winning streak; highlight of night was when a kid dressed as a banana came out of the stands during a timeout and made a layup, foul shot and 3-pointer in 0:30 to win a prize, I'm not sure what, but he banked in his 3-pointer at the buzzer to win his prize. First conference losss for Stony Brook in front of a large, loud crowd-- rare night out for me during hoop season and a fun one.

12) Duke 74, North Carolina 73-- Got home in time to see most of this; Duke lost Matt Jones early, played only two subs anyway-- how does Duke only have seven players they trust? Now two of those seven are hurt, so freshman Chase Jeter will have to play some. Carolina was 1-13 behind the arc-- there is no great team right now, they all have major flaws, which will make March a fascinating month.

11) Alabama 76, LSU 69-- You could make a case for Avery Johnson as national coach of the year; right now they're an NCAA tourney team and no one, I mean no one had them as that back in the fall. No one. Tough loss for LSU and CBS, which has to want Ben Simmons in the NCAAs pretty badly, but their resume is borderline at best.

10) Texas Tech 65, Oklahoma 63-- Sooners lost three of last four games after a 19-2 start; they were 6-23 on arc, are 22-79 on arc in last three losses. Tubby Smith has his Red Raiders headed towards the NCAA bubble.

9) St John's 80, DePaul 65-- First Big East win for coach Chris Mullin.

8) St Peter's 70, Manhattan 69-- This was a makeup game; Peacocks play another game tonight, at Quinnipiac, very unuusal for a college team.

7) Get well soon Chris Bosh, who has trouble with blood clots-- he does an ad on TV with Arnold Palmer and Kevin Nealon for Xarelto, a blood thinner. We hope he is feeling well enough to play again soon.

6) State Senate in Tennessee passed a bill making it OK for people to have a skunk as a pet-- the Tennessee house hasn't voted on the bill yet. I think the whole thing stinks, and no, I am not making any of that up.

5) University of Cincinnati is campaigning to join the Big X; if they do, another team has to go to too, to give the Big X an even number of teams. Memphis?

4) Carolina Panthers signed JJ Jansen to a 5-year, $5.5M contract; who is he, you ask? JJ Jansen is the Carolina long snapper, a critical yet obscure position. There are guys we've rarely heard of who play a long time in the NFL as long snappers.

3) Daytime TV is awful, just putrid. ESPN should be ashamed of themselves for the garbage they put on the air. I'm listening to more music now during the day, but when preseason baseball starts in 13 days, that will make afternoons a lot more fun.

2) NFL Combine is next week; not sure if that is interesting TV or not, but it is very important for NFL teams to learn about players they may or may not draft. Stuff like Geno Smith playing with his cellphone during team interviews- thats a red flag that the guy isn't the person you want playing the most important position on the field.

1) Jim Brown/Michael Jordan share a birthday- February 17. Very strong pairing of sports birthdays right there. I know a couple guys who would try to have sex with their wife on May 17 to heighten their chance of their kid sharing a birthday with those two legends. Seriously, they would. I feel bad for their wives.

**Udog** · 02-18-2016, 07:21 AM

NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 17

With the 65th edition of the NBA All-Star Game in the books, the focus now turns toward the trade deadline this Thursday. Certainly, there have been several surprises thus far. Both Portland and Dallas were expected to miss the Playoffs, yet each has a .500 (or better) record at this juncture. Likewise, not many preseason predictions had the Boston Celtics in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference. But Brad Stevens has guided his team to a 32-23 record. Thus, GM Danny Ainge is now rumored to be aggressively looking to bolster his club's roster, in an attempt to be able to compete with the Cavaliers come playoff time. The NBA will resume its regular season on Thursday, so let's find some winners.

Spread Watch

The New Orleans Pelicans, under first-year head coach Alvin Gentry, have been a major disappointment. Injuries, of course, have played a part. But they've also had trouble adjusting to Gentry's new offensive system. For the season, they're 20-33 straight-up and 22-31 ATS, including 2-6 ATS over their last eight games. That, in and of itself, isn't earth-shattering. But what's extremely interesting about New Orleans' season is what also happens when it covers (or doesn't cover) the pointspread. In games that it cashes "in Vegas," New Orleans averages 110.59 ppg, and those games have gone "Over" the total 15-6-1. But in games it loses ATS, New Orleans has averaged a paltry 96.09 ppg, and has gone "Under" 21-9-1. The relationship between ATS wins/losses and overs/unders is the strongest of any team this season. Of course, there are several ways to take advantage of this. If one liked the Pelicans in a game, one could parlay it with the "Over" (or if one wanted to bet against the Pelicans, one could parlay it with the "Under"). Or, one could do both in the same game (e.g., bet a Pelicans/Over parlay and also a parlay of their opponent and the "Under"). If one engaged in this strategy of making two parlays in each game, one would need to cash at least five of nine games (or five of 18 parlays) to break even. Given the strong correlation between New Orleans' offensive production, ATS wins/losses and Overs/Unders, I think it's a sensible strategy.

Totals Watch

The Memphis Grizzles have gone "Over" the total in three straight, and 13 of their last 15 games. Going forward, the one thing to watch will be Memphis' pace of play (currently ranked #27) now that center Marc Gasol has been lost to injury. Coach Dave Joerger has expressed that he does want to increase his team's pace, and get more points in transition. That makes sense, as Gasol's absence will hurt Memphis' half-court offensive sets (as well as its defense). This week, Memphis will play the Timberwolves at home, and the Raptors on the road. The game against Minnesota, in particular, looks like a great game to take "Over" the total as Minny has sailed above the number in 9-1-2 its last 12 games. And the last three meetings between these two teams have also gone "Over" the total.

Injury Watch

The Chicago Bulls' Jimmy Butler injured his knee 10 days ago against Denver, and will miss upwards of a month. Without their star on the court, the Bulls have lost their last four games SU and ATS (including the game vs. the Nuggets, in which Butler was injured). It likely will get worse before it gets better, as Chicago's first two opponents this week (Cleveland, Toronto) will be out not only to avenge home losses to Chicago last month, but two losses, overall, to the Bulls this season. The Cavaliers, especially, should be fired up, as the Bulls spoiled coach Tyronn Lue's debut -- on National TV, no less -- in a 96-83 defeat. I look for Cleveland to roast Chicago.

Schedule Watch

This week, due to a re-scheduling of the Wizards/Pistons game, Washington will play three games in three nights. One may think that such an event is quite rare, but it actually has happened much more often than one would think. Indeed, from the 1960s through the 1980s, it was fairly commonplace. And, then, in the two strike seasons (1999, 2012), it occurred an awful lot. The knee-jerk reaction might be to bet against teams in such a scheduling spot. But they've gone 52-44-1 ATS since 1990 (against teams not playing their third game in three nights), and have done their best work away from home (29-16 ATS). However, I believe the real way to tackle this situation is to play on such teams in the first game of this three-game set. They know that they're embarking on a grueling schedule, and the reaction, it seems, has been to try hard to get the first game. Since 1990, our teams are 62-43-2 ATS in the first game (against opponents not embarking on a similar schedule), including 41-17-1 ATS at home. With these numbers in mind, consider playing on the Wizards in their home game against Utah on Thursday, as well as on the road, at Miami, on Saturday.

**Udog** · 02-18-2016, 07:23 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, February 18

Hot teams
-- Utah won seven of its last eight games (2-8 last 10AU).
-- Cavaliers are 8-3 since changing coaches (3-4 last 7HF).
-- San Antonio won its last six games. Clippers won seven of their last nine games.

Cold teams
-- Wizards lost nine of their last 13 games (2-5 last 7HF).
-- Chicago lost six of its last seven games (1-5 last 6AU).

Series records
-- Wizards won their last three games with Utah.
-- Chicago-Clveland split their last ten games.
-- Clippers are 6-4 in last ten games with San Antonio.

Totals
-- Six of last nine Utah games stayed under the total
-- Six of last eight Cleveland games went over.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Clipper games.

Back/backs
-- None

NBA

Thursday, February 18

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
UTAH vs. WASHINGTON
Utah is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Utah is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Washington is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Washington is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. CLEVELAND
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Chicago's last 25 games
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

10:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. LA CLIPPERS
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing San Antonio

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**Udog** · 02-18-2016, 08:44 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, February 18

Chicago @ Cleveland

Game 501-502
February 18, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
118.474
Cleveland
127.824
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 9 1/2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 12
207
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+12); Over

San Antonio @ LA Clippers

Game 503-504
February 18, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
126.678
LA Clippers
124.517
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 2
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 4 1/2
205 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(+4 1/2); Over

Utah @ Washington

Game 605-606
February 18, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
119.236
Washington
115.697
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 3 1/2
193
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
Pick
199
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
Under

**Udog** · 02-18-2016, 09:46 AM

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, February 18

Chicago at Cleveland, 8:05 ET
Chicago: 8-18 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5
Cleveland: 22-10 ATS at home revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 pts or more

San Antonio at LA Clippers, 10:35 ET
San Antonio: 21-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders
Los Angeles: 24-45 ATS after allowing 120 points or more

Utah at Washington, 7:05 ET
Utah: 40-24 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points
Washington: 8-22 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread

**Udog** · 02-18-2016, 12:56 PM

NBA

Thursday, February 18

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Game of the Day: Spurs at Clippers
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Two of the West's top teams face off when NBA action resumes Thursday night with the Spurs visiting the Clippers.

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (+4.5, 205.5)

The San Antonio Spurs have the second-best record in the NBA and see no reason why can't overtake the Golden State Warriors over the season's final 29 games. San Antonio is 3 1/2 games behind the league-best Warriors and looks to post its seventh consecutive victory when it visits the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday as play resumes following the All-Star break.

The Spurs are 45-8 - the franchise's best-ever record at the break - and see it as crucial to end up with the No. 1 seed in the West because both they and Golden State have perfect home records. "The fun is over," All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge told reporters. "We understand the task at hand." The Clippers have had to sidestep distractions caused by the incident in which power forward Blake Griffin broke his right hand punching assistant equipment manager Matias Testi and Griffin addressed the situation publicly for the first time on Tuesday. "This is not something that I have ever had to deal with and not a position that I have ever been in, so it has been tough to know that I let my teammates down, let our organization down and let the fans down, let my family down, all of that," Griffin told reporters. "That has probably been the hardest part."

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as 3.5-point road favorites and have been bet up to -4.5. The total hasn't moved from the opening number of 205.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Spurs - C M. Bonner (questionable Thursday, calf), PG T. Parker (questionable Thursday, ankle), SG M. Ginobili (Late March, groin).

Clippers - G A. Rivers (Mid March, hand), PF B. Griffin (Late March, hand/suspension).

POWER RANKINGS: Spurs (-17.1) - Clippers (-8.2) + home court (-3) = Clippers +5.9

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Spurs, still the top ATS team in the league with the best point differential in the sport, are 6-0 SU in February. As for the Clippers, trade rumors surround Blake Griffin, but do not fall for the "Clippers are better without Blake" take. Interestingly, they are 8-0 SU/7-0-1 ATS vs. the Southeast Division."

ABOUT THE SPURS (45-8, 34-19 ATS, 25-26-2 O/U): Aldridge ended play before the break on a roll with six 20-point outings in an eight-game span. Aldridge averaged 24.1 points and shot 60.2 percent from the field during the stretch and is averaging 17 points after a slow start to the season. Aldridge has worked through the transition period upon leaving Portland to join the Spurs and is now fitting in much better with his teammates.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (35-18, 25-25-3 ATS, 24-29 O/U): Los Angeles has gone 18-5 with Griffin sidelined and rumors continue to persist that the club is shopping him prior to Thursday's trading deadline. Coach Doc Rivers has expressed displeasure that he has to continue to address the situation but the speculation isn't going to stop swirling until the deadline passes. "We receive phone calls about every single player, honestly, but it does frustrate me when you hear all that speculation and all that stuff," Rivers told reporters. "It’s completely untrue."

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Spurs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are all over the Spurs in this matchup with a whopping 72 percent of wagers backing San Antonio. As for the total, 65 percent of wagers are on the over.

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Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/18

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/18

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