The Bum's National Basketball League February Picks/Trends/News !!

[StarDust Bum]

There's no place like home for NBA teams off lengthy road trips

If you had laid $110 to win $100 on every NBA team playing its first game at home following a road trip of three or more games, you would be up $1,410.

On December 15 of last year, the Kobe Bryant Farewell Tour returned to Staples Center following the NBA’s only eight-game road trip of the season (to date) to annihilate the Milwaukee Bucks by the final score of 113-95 while simultaneously covering the point spread as 3.5-point underdogs.

Milwaukee may be perceived as a downtrodden franchise with a current record of just 22-32, but the Lakers’ win on that fateful night was remarkable for a variety of reasons: not only was that 18-point victory the club’s second-biggest success of the season, but it came on the heels of a daunting road trip in which Los Angeles posted seven losses in eight games - with five of those defeats coming by way of double digits - lowlighted by an embarrassing 103-91 loss at league-worst Philadelphia to kick things off.

For a Lakers team that currently owns the Association’s second-worst record of the 2015-2016 season (11-44), that aforementioned win over Milwaukee marked just the fourth Los Angeles victory through the first 25 contests of Kobe Bryant’s final lap across the pool.

But the interesting takeaway here is that exactly one month prior to blowing the Bucks clear across the City of Angels, the Lakers returned home to Staples Center following a five-game road trip in which the team went 1-4 to smash Andre Drummond and the Detroit Pistons 97-85 while covering the spread as 4.5-point underdogs.

So what gives? How exactly does a club with the NBA’s second-worst scoring differential at minus-9.6, which also happens to be winning only 20 percent of the time this season, post two double-digit outright victories while in the underdog role in exactly one month’s time?

I’ll give you a hint: it’s the same reason why you sleep so well that first night home following a four-day bender in Las Vegas.

Road trips, whether coming in the form of business or pleasure, are almost always accompanied by a measurable level of both intrigue and charm. But when you consider the hassles of airport security, middle seats and bumbling rental car agencies, there’s nothing quite like a night spent sleeping between your own sheets on a mattress that knows exactly how your body likes to operate when powering down after a long day.

Maybe Kobe and the Lakers just so happened to get lucky in those matchups against the Bucks and Pistons. Or maybe, just maybe, there’s more here than meets the eye. Do NBA teams tend to perform at a higher level in their first home game following a long road trip, thus creating a possible betting edge worth exploring? Or were those two Los Angeles victories outliers than warrant little to no consideration at all?

So far through the 2015-2016 NBA season, teams coming off a road trip of three or more games are 62-35 SU (.652) and 57-39-1 against the spread (.593) in their first game back at home.

That means if you had laid $110 to win $100 on every NBA team that was playing its first game at home following a road trip of three or more contests this season, you would currently be up $1,410.

Here’s a breakdown of how NBA teams have performed both SU and ATS in their first home game following a road trip of three or more matchups:

First home game after 3-game road trip: 31-19 SU (.620), 29-20-1 ATS (.592)
First home game after 4-game road trip: 15-9 SU (.625), 14-10 ATS (.583)
First home game after 5-game road trip: 10-4 SU (.714), 9-5 SU (.643)
First home game after 6-game road trip: 4-2 SU (.666), 3-3 ATS (.500)
First home game after 7-game road trip: 1-1 SU (.500), 1-1 ATS (.500)
First home game after 8-game road trip: 1-0 SU (1.000), 1-0 ATS (1.000)

And it’s not just the Lakers who have found success on their home court following a lengthy road trip, it’s the entire NBA. In fact, even the bottom-dwelling, tank-embracing Philadelphia 76ers (8-45, worst in NBA) are turning a profit this season when playing their first home game following a road trip of three or more contests (2-1 SU/ATS).

Granted, the edge gained with this information isn’t significant enough to warrant a sizeable increase in your average wager size, but it is useful to the point where it adds yet another weapon to the ever-growing arsenal of angles we’re deploying against the sportsbooks.

Now go and get yourself a great night of rest because the NBA is back from the break and there for the taking.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, February 20


Washington @ Miami

Game 501-502
February 20, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
121.119
Miami
118.207
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 1 1/2
195 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+1 1/2); Over

Milwaukee @ Atlanta

Game 503-504
February 20, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
116.507
Atlanta
122.093
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 5 1/2
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 9
204 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(+9); Over

New York @ Minnesota

Game 505-506
February 20, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
112.570
Minnesota
119.408
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7
200
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
207
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-1 1/2); Under

Golden State @ LA Clippers

Game 507-508
February 20, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
127.858
LA Clippers
121.962
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 6
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 4 1/2
223
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-4 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NBA ATS

NBA > (505) NEW YORK@ (506) MINNESOTA | 2016-02-20 20:05:00 - 2016-02-20 20:05:00
Play AGAINST MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points
The record is 0 Wins and 10 Losses for the this season (-11 units)

NBA > (505) NEW YORK@ (506) MINNESOTA | 2016-02-20 20:05:00 - 2016-02-20 20:05:00
Play AGAINST MINNESOTA against the spread in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 7 Wins and 23 Losses for the last two seasons (-18.3 units)

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NBA MONEYLINE

NBA > (505) NEW YORK@ (506) MINNESOTA | 2016-02-20 20:05:00 - 2016-02-20 20:05:00
Play AGAINST MINNESOTA using money line in Home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 24 Wins and 43 Losses for the last three seasons (-45.2 units)

NBA > (507) GOLDEN STATE@ (508) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-02-20 20:35:00 - 2016-02-20 20:35:00
Play AGAINST LA CLIPPERS using money line in All games when the total is greater than or equal to 210
The record is 4 Wins and 9 Losses for the this season (-15.25 units)

NBA > (501) WASHINGTON@ (502) MIAMI | 2016-02-20 19:35:00 - 2016-02-20 19:35:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI using money line in Home games off an upset win as an underdog
The record is 4 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-15.7 units)

NBA > (501) WASHINGTON@ (502) MIAMI | 2016-02-20 19:35:00 - 2016-02-20 19:35:00
Play ON MIAMI using money line in All games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season
The record is 18 Wins and 6 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.45 units)

NBA > (507) GOLDEN STATE@ (508) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-02-20 20:35:00 - 2016-02-20 20:35:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game
The record is 66 Wins and 16 Losses for the last two seasons (+31.65 units)

NBA > (503) MILWAUKEE@ (504) ATLANTA | 2016-02-20 19:35:00 - 2016-02-20 19:35:00
Play AGAINST MILWAUKEE using money line in All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season
The record is 14 Wins and 45 Losses for the last three seasons (-30.25 units)

NBA > (501) WASHINGTON@ (502) MIAMI | 2016-02-20 19:35:00 - 2016-02-20 19:35:00
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using money line in Road games in February games
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-10.5 units)

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NBA FIRST HALF

NBA > (507) GOLDEN STATE@ (508) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-02-20 20:35:00 - 2016-02-20 20:35:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE ?>in the first halfin Road games after a loss by 10 points or more
The record is 10 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+10 units)

NBA > (507) GOLDEN STATE@ (508) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-02-20 20:35:00 - 2016-02-20 20:35:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE ?>in the first halfin All games when the first half total >= 105.5
The record is 25 Wins and 11 Losses for the this season (+12.9 units)

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NBA TOTALS

NBA > (507) GOLDEN STATE@ (508) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-02-20 20:35:00 - 2016-02-20 20:35:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin All games after scoring 105 points or more
The record is 5 Overs and 20 Unders for the this season (+14.5 units)

NBA > (503) MILWAUKEE@ (504) ATLANTA | 2016-02-20 19:35:00 - 2016-02-20 19:35:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games in February games
The record is 2 Overs and 15 Unders for the last two seasons (+12.8 units)

NBA > (503) MILWAUKEE@ (504) ATLANTA | 2016-02-20 19:35:00 - 2016-02-20 19:35:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 38 Overs and 76 Unders for the last two seasons (+34.2 units)

NBA > (503) MILWAUKEE@ (504) ATLANTA | 2016-02-20 19:35:00 - 2016-02-20 19:35:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 29 Overs and 61 Unders for the last two seasons (+29.1 units)

NBA > (501) WASHINGTON@ (502) MIAMI | 2016-02-20 19:35:00 - 2016-02-20 19:35:00
Play UNDER MIAMI on the totalin All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game
The record is 26 Overs and 55 Unders for the last two seasons (+26.4 units)

NBA > (501) WASHINGTON@ (502) MIAMI | 2016-02-20 19:35:00 - 2016-02-20 19:35:00
Play UNDER MIAMI on the totalin All games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 7 Overs and 21 Unders for the this season (+13.3 units)

NBA > (507) GOLDEN STATE@ (508) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-02-20 20:35:00 - 2016-02-20 20:35:00
Play OVER GOLDEN STATE on the totalin All games when the first half total >= 105.5
The record is 27 Overs and 11 Unders for the this season (+14.9 units)

NBA > (505) NEW YORK@ (506) MINNESOTA | 2016-02-20 20:05:00 - 2016-02-20 20:05:00
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the totalin All games after allowing 105 points or more
The record is 25 Overs and 50 Unders for the last two seasons (+22.5 units)

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 20

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


WAS at MIA 07:30 PM

MIA -1.0 BEST BET


MIL at ATL 07:30 PM

MIL +8.5 BEST BET


NY at MIN 08:00 PM

NY +2.5


GS at LAC 08:30 PM

LAC +4.0 BEST BET

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six of the best minor league prospects for the Houston Astros:

1) AJ Reed, 1B-- Main question will be, can he hit big league lefties?

3) Alex Bregman, SS-- Will probably get traded, since he is a shortstop.

4) Kyle Tucker, OF-- His older brother debuted in big leagues for Astros LY.

6) Joe Musgrove, P-- Went 12-1 in three minor league stops last year.

8) Mark Appel, P-- #1 pick in 2013 draft has 5.12 ERA in 53 MILB starts.

10) Derek Fisher, OF-- Hopefully Virginia alum will have better year than his NBA namesake, who recently got canned as coach of the Knicks.

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday......

13) Texas A&M 79, Kentucky 77, OT-- End of this game was truly bizarre; when a kid on Kentucky grabbed a rebound and got fouled-- in jubilation he threw the ball away after the whistle and the refs gave him a technical, which was also his fifth foul, which meant he couldn't take foul shots from being fouled with Wildcats up one. His replacement split a pair after A&M made both technical foul shots.

Best part of this was that ESPN's Jay Bilas, who constantly bashes the refs, had no clue what the rule was on who chose the foul shooter because the kid had fouled out-- I have never seen that happen before, either. Big win for the Aggies, no matter what.

12) Louisville 71, Duke 64-- There is nothing quite as much fun as watching Dukies whine like 6-year olds when they don't get every call. Coach K got a technical late in game and Grayson Allen got one after he fouled out with 3:55 left. For Louisville, this game was like the Super Bowl, since they're banned from postseason.

11) Funniest thing that'll happen all weekend: Ben Simmons didn't start for LSU at Tennessee "....for academic reasons." Really?

In late June, Simmons will be the first player taken in the NBA Draft, which means that by Labor Day, he is going to be a multi-millionaire, even if he has no freakin' idea where the school library is (for historical reference, see Anthony, Carmelo). Simmons has less chance of being in college next fall than I do-- I graduated (somehow) in 1982.

10) South Carolina 73, Florida 69 OT-- It has to be fairly scary to have to interview Gamecocks coach Frank Martin when his team just gave up a 20-0 run to end the half, which is what happened here. Martin has an intimidating scowl and huge shoulders-- he looks like he could be a pro wrestler, had he so chosen-- he has done a very good job at South Carolina this season. The interview was calm and uneventful.

9) BYU 91, San Diego 33-- Teams played Thursday and BYU barely won 69-67; it is typical of this season, the wild variance in how teams play from day-to-day..

8) Hassan Whiteside had 29 points, 23 rebounds off the bench for Miami last night, the first NBA sub to produce numbers like that since Detlef Schrempf in 1992.

7) They put over 30,000 people in Coors Field Saturday for a hockey game between Colorado College and Denver- these outdoor hockey games have become cash cows.

6) Doug Gottlieb reported that a lot of coaches think Roy Williams will retire after this season and Williams wasn't very happy with that CBS report. Now it is unclear just where Gottlieb's report came from- time will tell who is right, but if Williams ain't retiring, it is BS to say he is, because that could screw up his recruiting.

5) Hawai'i 75, Cal-Irvine 71-- Rainbows are eligible for postseason this year, then go on probation next year- they trailed almost whole way in this game, then pulled it out at the end and opened up aa 2-game lead in the Big West.

They were talking last night that Hawai'i will wind up with lot of Australians on their team, since its new coach was one of the guys responsible for recruiting at St Mary's, which has a great pipeline to basketball players down under.

4) Yale 79, Penn 58-- Yale is tied with Princeton for Ivy lead with two weekends left- they both have to play Columbia, which is a game behind. No conference tourney in the Ivy League, so they'll have a playoff game if it ends in a tie.

3) Air Force 76, New Mexico 72-- Flyboys have now won four home games in a row; Mountain West is as bad as it has ever been this year- they're likely to get only one team in NCAAs. San Diego State is their only chance at an at-large bid.

2) UNLV 102, Nevada 91 OT-- Weird game with a very dramatic end to regulation, when both teams hit a 3-pointer in last 0:03 to send game to OT. Rebels had only six scholarship kids for this game- one kid quit, one kid got tossed, they have a transfer sitting out and four kids hurt-- that adds up to their 13 scholarships.

1) Texas Tech 71, Oklahoma State 61-- Tubby Smith has Texas Tech at 17-9 and on bubble; they've won five of last six games. About ten years ago, Smith was polite enough to let me interview him for this space at an AAU tournament in Florida. He's an excellent coach and a better person. Texas Tech is lucky to have him.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 21

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CLEVELAND (39 - 14) at OKLAHOMA CITY (40 - 15) - 2/21/2016, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 146-111 ATS (+23.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-33 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-29 ATS (-11.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-2 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (21 - 33) at DETROIT (27 - 28) - 2/21/2016, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-32 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in non-conference games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 97-129 ATS (-44.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (46 - 9) at PHOENIX (14 - 41) - 2/21/2016, 5:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (32 - 24) at DENVER (22 - 33) - 2/21/2016, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
DENVER is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 80-60 ATS (+14.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
BOSTON is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 50-32 ATS (+14.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 4-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (29 - 25) at ORLANDO (24 - 29) - 2/21/2016, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 7-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 8-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (32 - 22) at TORONTO (35 - 18) - 2/21/2016, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 88-60 ATS (+22.0 Units) against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 232-186 ATS (+27.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
TORONTO is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 161-204 ATS (-63.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 2-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (28 - 26) at BROOKLYN (15 - 40) - 2/21/2016, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 4-4 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 4-4 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (8 - 46) at DALLAS (29 - 27) - 2/21/2016, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (11 - 45) at CHICAGO (28 - 26) - 2/21/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 21-33 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 116-157 ATS (-56.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
CHICAGO is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 26-42 ATS (-20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (27 - 27) at PORTLAND (28 - 27) - 2/21/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 73-59 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 83-58 ATS (+19.2 Units) on Sunday games since 1996.
UTAH is 52-22 ATS (+27.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 68-101 ATS (-43.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 8-3 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, February 21

Hot teams
-- Oklahoma City won seven of its last nine games (8-2 last 10HF). Cavaliers won their last four games (4-1AU).
-- Pistons lost their last four games (12-3 last 15 HF). New Orleans won three of last four games (5-3 last 8AU).
-- Spurs won seven of last eight games (2-5 last 7AF).
-- Celtics won seven of their last ten games. Denver is 4-3 in last seven games.
-- Indiana, Orlando won three of their last four games.
-- Memphis won seven of its last nine games (0-4 last 4AU).
-- Hornets won six of rheir last seven games (3-5AF).
-- Jazz won eight of its last ten games (2-8 last 10AU). Portland is 9-1 in its last ten games (8-2 last 10HF).

Cold teams
-- Phoenix lost its last ten games (3-7 vs spread).
-- Raptors lost last two games, allowing 116-117 points (6-2 last 8 HF), after winning seven of eight before that.
-- Brooklyn lost seven of its last ten games (4-2 last 6HU).
-- Dallas lost five of its last six games (7-3 last 10HF). 76ers lost seven of their last eight games (6-3 last 9AU).
-- Chicago lost five of its last six games (4-3AF). Lakers lost last four games but covered last six (5-2 last 7HU).

Series records
-- Cavaliers won four of last six games with Oklahoma City.
-- Pelicans won their last seven games with Detroit.
-- Spurs won last six games with Phoenix (4-1-1 vs spread).
-- Celtics won four of last five games with Denver.
-- Pacers won nine of last ten games with Orlando.
-- Raptors won three of last four games with Memphis.
-- Nets are 6-4 in last ten games with Charlotte.
-- Dallas won last six games with Philly (2-4 vs spread).
-- Lakers won four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Trailblazers won seven of last ten games with Utah.

Totals
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Cleveland-Oklahoma City games.
-- Last three Detroit games stayed under; three of last four Pelican tilts went over the total.
-- Six of last seven San Antonio-Phoenix games stayed under.
-- Last four Boston games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Indiana-Orlando games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Toronto games.
-- Five of last six Charlotte-Brooklyn games went over.
-- Last four Dallas games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Laker games went over; three of last four Chicago games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Utah-Portland games went over the total.

Back/backs
-- None

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, February 21

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Trend Report
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3:30 PM
CLEVELAND vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games when playing Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Oklahoma City is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games

3:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Detroit
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing New Orleans

5:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. PHOENIX
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Phoenix's last 15 games when playing at home against San Antonio

5:00 PM
BOSTON vs. DENVER
Boston is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 12 games on the road
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Boston
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston

6:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. TORONTO
Memphis is 4-8-2 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 8-15-2 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Memphis

6:00 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. BROOKLYN
Charlotte is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Brooklyn
Charlotte is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Brooklyn's last 8 games
Brooklyn is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games

6:00 PM
INDIANA vs. ORLANDO
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games on the road
Orlando is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana

7:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

8:00 PM
LA LAKERS vs. CHICAGO
LA Lakers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chicago
LA Lakers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Chicago is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games

9:00 PM
UTAH vs. PORTLAND
Utah is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Utah is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Utah
Portland is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Utah

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, February 21


Indiana @ Orlando

Game 809-810
February 21, 2016 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
117.327
Orlando
121.568
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Orlando
by 4
195
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Orlando
Pick
200 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Orlando
Under

Memphis @ Toronto

Game 811-812
February 21, 2016 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
116.990
Toronto
126.479
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 9 1/2
197
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 7 1/2
202
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-7 1/2); Under

Charlotte @ Brooklyn

Game 813-814
February 21, 2016 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
121.222
Brooklyn
117.433
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 4
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 7
203
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+7); Over

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Game 815-816
February 21, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
110.869
Dallas
115.067
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 4
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
N/A

LA Lakers @ Chicago

Game 817-818
February 21, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
113.301
Chicago
117.240
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 4
200
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
206 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(+7 1/2); Under

Utah @ Portland

Game 819-820
February 21, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
119.807
Portland
121.774
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 2
194
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 3 1/2
198
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+3 1/2); Under

Cleveland @ Oklahoma City

Game 801-802
February 21, 2016 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
126.061
Oklahoma City
123.666
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 3 1/2
215
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+3 1/2); Over

New Orleans @ Detroit

Game 803-804
February 21, 2016 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
116.363
Detroit
118.510
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 5 1/2
206
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+5 1/2); Over

San Antonio @ Phoenix

Game 805-806
February 21, 2016 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
123.866
Phoenix
108.837
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 15
192
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
N/A

Boston @ Denver

Game 807-808
February 21, 2016 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
121.869
Denver
117.440
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 4 1/2
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 3
215
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-3); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, February 21


Think twice before fading LeBron when facing Durant

LeBron James and Kevin Durant have been the face of the NBA for the better part of a decade and as they prepare to square off for the 21st time in their careers, the argument of who's the better player continues.

What isn't an argument, is who has been the better bet whenever the two superstars go head to head.

It's the "King" and it's not close.

James is 16-4 straight up and 14-6 against the spread all time when he faces off against Durant and he has been an even more dominant bet in recent matchups with Durant, going 9-1 SU/ATS in their last 10 meetings, including the last three in a row.

LeBron has had the luxury of having the better team in the majority of the meetings, as he has been favored in 14 of the 20 matchups. But facing that chalk hasn't been a problem for James, having gone 10-4 ATS as a favorite.

However, that won't be the case Sunday, as the Cavaliers are currently listed as 3.5-point road pups. When James has been a pup versus Durant, he is 4-2 ATS and is 3-0 ATS the last three times he's been the dog.

If Cleveland can pull off a straight up win Sunday, James will improve to 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS as a member of the Cavs. (He was 9-4 SU/ATS as a member of the Heat).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA ATS

NBA > (807) BOSTON@ (808) DENVER | 2016-02-21 17:05:00 - 2016-02-21 17:05:00
Play ON BOSTON against the spread in All games when the total is greater than or equal to 210
The record is 20 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+16.7 units)

NBA > (819) UTAH@ (820) PORTLAND | 2016-02-21 21:05:00 - 2016-02-21 21:05:00
Play ON UTAH against the spread in All games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 52 Wins and 22 Losses for the last two seasons (+27.8 units)

NBA > (819) UTAH@ (820) PORTLAND | 2016-02-21 21:05:00 - 2016-02-21 21:05:00
Play ON PORTLAND against the spread in All games in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points
The record is 16 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+12.7 units)

--------------------

NBA MONEYLINE

NBA > (807) BOSTON@ (808) DENVER | 2016-02-21 17:05:00 - 2016-02-21 17:05:00
Play ON BOSTON using money line in All games when the total is greater than or equal to 210
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+12.2 units)

NBA > (805) SAN ANTONIO@ (806) PHOENIX | 2016-02-21 17:05:00 - 2016-02-21 17:05:00
Play AGAINST PHOENIX using money line in All games after 3 or more consecutive losses
The record is 8 Wins and 22 Losses for the last two seasons (-24.15 units)

NBA > (817) LA LAKERS@ (818) CHICAGO | 2016-02-21 20:05:00 - 2016-02-21 20:05:00
Play AGAINST CHICAGO using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 18 Wins and 12 Losses for the last two seasons (-36.4 units)

NBA > (811) MEMPHIS@ (812) TORONTO | 2016-02-21 18:05:00 - 2016-02-21 18:05:00
Play AGAINST TORONTO using money line in All games after playing 3 consecutive road games
The record is 8 Wins and 13 Losses for the last two seasons (-21.5 units)

NBA > (817) LA LAKERS@ (818) CHICAGO | 2016-02-21 20:05:00 - 2016-02-21 20:05:00
Play AGAINST CHICAGO using money line in All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 37 Wins and 28 Losses for the last two seasons (-44.3 units)

NBA > (811) MEMPHIS@ (812) TORONTO | 2016-02-21 18:05:00 - 2016-02-21 18:05:00
Play ON MEMPHIS using money line in All games after scoring 105 points or more
The record is 27 Wins and 8 Losses for the last two seasons (+18.2 units)

NBA > (807) BOSTON@ (808) DENVER | 2016-02-21 17:05:00 - 2016-02-21 17:05:00
Play AGAINST DENVER using money line in Home games after playing 3 consecutive road games
The record is 4 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-17.25 units)

NBA > (815) PHILADELPHIA@ (816) DALLAS | 2016-02-21 19:05:00 - 2016-02-21 19:05:00
Play ON DALLAS using money line in All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 72 Wins and 21 Losses for the last three seasons (+37.65 units)

NBA > (819) UTAH@ (820) PORTLAND | 2016-02-21 21:05:00 - 2016-02-21 21:05:00
Play ON PORTLAND using money line in All games off an upset win as an underdog
The record is 23 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (+18.2 units)

NBA > (803) NEW ORLEANS@ (804) DETROIT | 2016-02-21 15:35:00 - 2016-02-21 15:35:00
Play AGAINST DETROIT using money line in All games second half of the season
The record is 27 Wins and 48 Losses for the last three seasons (-35.5 units)

----------------

CBB FIRST HALF

NBA > (811) MEMPHIS@ (812) TORONTO | 2016-02-21 18:05:00 - 2016-02-21 18:05:00
Play AGAINST TORONTO ?>in the first halfin Home games in February games
The record is 0 Wins and 11 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.1 units)

NBA > (801) CLEVELAND@ (802) OKLAHOMA CITY | 2016-02-21 15:35:00 - 2016-02-21 15:35:00
Play ON CLEVELAND ?>in the first halfin All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season
The record is 36 Wins and 15 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.5 units)

NBA > (819) UTAH@ (820) PORTLAND | 2016-02-21 21:05:00 - 2016-02-21 21:05:00
Play ON PORTLAND ?>in the first halfin All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 17 Wins and 5 Losses for the this season (+11.5 units)

NBA > (809) INDIANA@ (810) ORLANDO | 2016-02-21 18:05:00 - 2016-02-21 18:05:00
Play AGAINST INDIANA ?>in the first halfin All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season
The record is 22 Wins and 48 Losses for the last three seasons (-30.8 units)

------------------

NBA TOTALS

NBA > (819) UTAH@ (820) PORTLAND | 2016-02-21 21:05:00 - 2016-02-21 21:05:00
Play UNDER UTAH on the totalin Road games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 85 Overs and 244 Unders for the since 1992 (+150.5 units)

NBA > (819) UTAH@ (820) PORTLAND | 2016-02-21 21:05:00 - 2016-02-21 21:05:00
Play UNDER UTAH on the totalin Road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 14 Overs and 53 Unders for the last three seasons (+37.6 units)

NBA > (805) SAN ANTONIO@ (806) PHOENIX | 2016-02-21 17:05:00 - 2016-02-21 17:05:00
Play UNDER SAN ANTONIO on the totalin Road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 11 Overs and 39 Unders for the last two seasons (+26.9 units)

NBA > (803) NEW ORLEANS@ (804) DETROIT | 2016-02-21 15:35:00 - 2016-02-21 15:35:00
Play UNDER NEW ORLEANS on the totalin Road games in non-conference games
The record is 7 Overs and 29 Unders for the last three seasons (+21.3 units)

NBA > (805) SAN ANTONIO@ (806) PHOENIX | 2016-02-21 17:05:00 - 2016-02-21 17:05:00
Play UNDER PHOENIX on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 6 Overs and 22 Unders for the this season (+15.4 units)

NBA > (809) INDIANA@ (810) ORLANDO | 2016-02-21 18:05:00 - 2016-02-21 18:05:00
Play UNDER INDIANA on the totalin Road games against Southeast division opponents
The record is 6 Overs and 25 Unders for the last three seasons (+18.4 units)

NBA > (807) BOSTON@ (808) DENVER | 2016-02-21 17:05:00 - 2016-02-21 17:05:00
Play UNDER BOSTON on the totalin All games versus the 1rst half line in road games
The record is 21 Overs and 49 Unders for the last two seasons (+25.9 units)

NBA > (803) NEW ORLEANS@ (804) DETROIT | 2016-02-21 15:35:00 - 2016-02-21 15:35:00
Play UNDER NEW ORLEANS on the totalin All games in road games
The record is 6 Overs and 20 Unders for the this season (+13.4 units)

NBA > (809) INDIANA@ (810) ORLANDO | 2016-02-21 18:05:00 - 2016-02-21 18:05:00
Play UNDER INDIANA on the totalin All games against Southeast division opponents
The record is 19 Overs and 46 Unders for the last three seasons (+25.1 units)

NBA > (801) CLEVELAND@ (802) OKLAHOMA CITY | 2016-02-21 15:35:00 - 2016-02-21 15:35:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games on Sunday games
The record is 64 Overs and 127 Unders for the since 1992 (+56.6 units)

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's NBA Essentials
February 21, 2016

Cavaliers at Thunder (-3, 215) – 3:35 ET, ABC

Sunday’s top matchup could be a Finals preview, so both teams will be up for this second and final encounter between top contenders. The Thunder lost in Cleveland 104-100 on Dec. 17, outrebounded 50-43 in a game where the Cavs knocked down 12 3-pointers. LeBron James went for 33 points, 9 rebounds and 11 assists in a performance best remembered for him squashing Ellie Day, the wife of golfer Jason, while chasing a loose ball into the stands.

This rematch will feature Kyrie Irving in addition to a new head coach with Tyronn Lue having replaced David Blatt. One tweak who won’t be available will be the recently acquired Channing Frye, who didn’t complete his physical in time to be counted on here. The Cavs may be extremely short-handed since Iman Shumpert is considered questionable with a shoulder injury. Cleveland hasn’t been without its top defender since he missed the first meeting against OKC, going 24-7 with him playing major minutes. Although he hasn’t shot it well at all, his presence wreaking havoc guarding on the perimeter has been an asset and would be missed against Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.

James went for 25-9-9 in Thursday’s win over Chicago, showing off fresh legs. The Thunder fell at home to Indiana 101-98 as guys not named Durant or Westbrook shot 19-for-52. Westbrook delivered a career-high 18 assists, a total that should've been higher since OKC shot just 5-for-26 from 3-point range. Newly acquired Randy Foye didn’t play, but is available for this one. Oklahoma City hasn’t lost consecutive games since Dec. 3. The Cavs have won the last two in this series. This will be their first road game since a 106-97 loss in Charlotte on Feb. 3. They’re an Eastern Conference-best 16-10 (10-14-2 ATS) on the road. OKC is 25-6 at home, but just 15-16 ATS.

Pacers at Magic (PK, 200.5) – 6:05 ET

Paul George felt that Indiana’s 101-98 Friday night upset at OKC was the product of desperation, a desire to start the stretch run off on the right foot. The Pacers overcame a seven-point deficit in the final 3:00, knocking down four 3-pointers, the last of which Monta Ellis delivered with 18.8 seconds remaining. Ellis finished with a team-high 27 points, his second-highest output in this first season in Indiana. The 14.1 points he’s averaging is his lowest since his rookie season, so If Ellis can build some momentum off the performance, Indy may really take a step forward. George had double-digit assists for just the fifth time in his entire career.

The Magic were also winners on Friday night, surviving at home 110-104 against Dallas in OT. Nikola Vucevic led the way with 21 points and 12 rebounds, while Victor Oladipo added 17 points and a career-high 14 boards to help Orlando survive a Mavericks franchise-record 19 3-pointers in a game that featured wild runs and momentum swings. Slam Dunk contest Aaron Gordon rebounded in double-figures for the fourth straight game, adding a career-high six steals. The Magic got immense contributions from newcomers Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova, who each played over 20 minutes and combined for 34 points on 6-for-13 3-point shooting. It was a dream start considering the jettisoning of Tobias Harris was due in part to his inability to consistently take advantage from the perimeter.

Orlando has covered in seven of the last eight games, including each of the last four, bouncing back from a run where it failed to cover in 12 of 14. Indiana’s Rodney Stuckey sat out with a right foot injury and will be absent here. C.J. Miles will return after sitting in OKC due to a stomach virus. The Magic are as healthy as they've been all season. The Pacers have won 10 of the last 11 in this series, including the last six. The Pacers won the first two meetings this season (97-84 on Nov. 9, 95-86 on Jan. 6). Both went under posted totals that were in the high-190s.

Jazz at Blazers – 9:05 ET (-3.5, 198)

It can be argued that these teams have put together the two singularly most impressive efforts since the All-Star break. While Damian Lillard’s 51-point effort in a 137-105 dismantling of the mighty Warriors is the runaway winner for most eye-popping performance, Utah’s nationally-televised 111-93 rout of the East’s current No. 2 seed, Boston, was no slouch. The Northwest Division mates will now have the weekend’s final stage to themselves in a game where the winner will leave in sole possession of second place behind OKC, not to mention residence among the Western Conference’s top eight.

This will be the fourth and final meeting of the ’15-‘16, as the Trail Blazers gained a split in the matchups in Salt Lake City earlier this season before winning at home 99-85 on Jan. 13. It should be noted that PF Derrick Favors has participated only once, while center Rudy Gobert missed the Dec. 31 win. Portland’s 108-92 win on Nov. 4 marked the only time the Jazz had their starting lineup intact, and their two big men combined for just 14 points. The Jazz are 8-2 over their last 10 since getting completely healthy. The Trail Blazers are 9-1 in that same span and are on a 13-3 run (12-4 ATS).

Overshadowed by Lillard’s remarkable night was Mo Harkless’ continued excellence off the bench, as he hit 5-of-6 shots to maintain the momentum he had established before the break, scoring in double-figures for the fourth consecutive time as head coach Terry Stotts gave him 25 minutes. Over the last four, Harkless has averaged 13.8 points and 7.3 rebounds while shooting 5-for-11 from 3-point range. Considering he was 19-for-72 (26.3 pct) before this run and was hovering under 30 percent for his short career, this run Harkless is on may either be one tantalizing anomaly or perhaps the beginning of a breakthrough. C.J. McCollum is averaging 20.2 points per game over this current 16-game run the Blazers are on. He’s torched Utah this season, averaging 24.7 points and 6.0 assists while shooting nearly 48 percent from 3-point range.

The last three Portland games have all soared past the posted total. The over is 3-1 in Utah’s last four.

Sunday Total Notes

Chris David offered up his quick thoughts on a few late-night totals for Sunday.

After watching the ‘under’ go 3-0 on Thursday, the ‘over’ has rebounded with a 12-6 (67%) record over the last two days and there were a couple close calls last night.

For Sunday, the first thing that sticks out to me is that eight of the nine games with posted totals have numbers listed 200 or higher, which shows you the affect that tempo and 3-pointers have on the league.

The lone total listed below is the Jazz-Trail Blazers matchup, which is hovering between 198 and 199 points. Utah has been a sound ‘under’ bet (31-21) this season due to its slow offensive pace and great defensive numbers (96.5 PPG). That unit will be tested against Portland, who is averaging 106.5 PPG at home and it just dropped 137 on Friday against the Warriors. This will be the fourth and final meeting between the pair and the ‘over’ went 2-1 in the first three encounters but the lone ‘under’ occurred in their most recent game at the Moda Center.

If you’re looking for an ‘over’ bet for Sunday, there are a few options that look doable.

Memphis has watched the ‘over’ cash in four straight and that mini-streak is no surprise. The ‘over’ has cashed in 12 of the last 16 for the Grizzlies. The club is playing faster offensively and not having Marc Gasol in the lineup hurts them defensively, plus he slows them down. The Grizzlies visit Toronto and the total is listed at 202, which is a tad higher (201) than their first meeting last month in Memphis. The Raptors had a nice defensive run going but lately they can’t stop anybody. They’ve allowed 100-plus in five of their last seven games, which includes a 116-102 loss to Chicago on Friday. Those poor efforts have helped the ‘over’ go 5-1-1 in their last seven.

The Dallas-Philadelphia total opened at 203 ½ and its holding steady as of Sunday morning but I would expect a boost by tipoff barring injuries. I expect a sense of urgency for the Mavericks tonight as they’ve dropped five of their last six games and that includes a 110-104 overtime loss to Orlando on Friday. Dallas plays nine of its next 10 at home and the offense (102.5 PPG) is much better at the American Airlines Center than on the road (99 PPG). The 76ers have been more competitive of late but the defensive numbers (105.6 PPG) are still near the bottom of the league. Dallas took Philadelphia lightly in their first meeting in mid-November and almost lost but it posted 110, 123 and 124 in the previous three victories. I’d expect Rick Carlisle to stress the importance of this game and watch the Mavericks end up in that neighborhood on Sunday. If you can get a team total on Dallas, play to the high side.

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Sunday
February 21, 2016


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Pacers are 0-11-1 ATS (-8.00 ppg) since Jan 01, 2014 on the road after a win in which they trailed after the third.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Raptors are 18-0-1 OU (16.47 ppg) since Nov 07, 2007 off a loss as a favorite after allowing 15+ points more than Vegas projected.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Thunder are 10-0 ATS (8.50 ppg) since Feb 11, 2015 at home after Kevin Durant scored at least 30 points.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Nets are 0-10 ATS (-8.65 ppg) since Apr 29, 2015 off a home game in which they had 6+ double digit scorers.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Lakers are 9-0 ATS (9.50 ppg) since Dec 25, 2015 after Kobe Bryant was the Lakers’ high scorer.

-- The Hornets are 0-9-3 OU (-10.25 ppg) since Dec 21, 2013 after Kemba Walker was the Hornets’ high scorer in a road win.

[StarDust Bum]

Disappointing Deadline
February 19, 2016

We can’t say we’re surprised. The much-discussed NBA trade deadline, which had the rumor mills whirring as usual until 3 PM EST on Thursday, again passed with barely a whimper. None of the rumored big names (Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Blake Griffin, even Kevin Durant) went anywhere, as instead we were left waiting for something big that never happened.

When the smoke cleared, the most active team was probably the Detroit Pistons, though it is not easy to see where Stan Van Gundy’s bunch might have helped itself in the short-term. Several of the trades, including Cleveland’s acquisition of Orlando F/C Channing Frye in a three-way deal, also were laced with salary cap implications (which is not unusual). Mostly, however, it was bit players and a few rotation pieces trading uniforms as this annual false-alarm once again played out in real time without anything earth-shaking.

By this time, however, we should have learned to look at trade deadlines warily. Major League Baseball’s deadline at the end of July similarly excites every year, but often disappoints, as many of the key baseball deals are done long before the end of July. And there are usually as many moves in the month following the baseball deadline involving players passing through waivers, so the MLB rumors always continue into August. The NFL has its own deadline in October that rarely produces a move of significance. Trade deadline aficionados have long known that the best of those occurs in the NHL, which annually features a flurry of moves. If you need a trade deadline fix, we suggest following the NHL’s version, coming soon on February 29, when some big names (like Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos) might actually be moved!

In the meantime, there were a handful of NBA teams making moves at the deadline. In all, there were 24 players and 18 teams involved. Following is a look at those teams and the deals of the most significance.

ATLANTA...After all of the talk about perhaps moving unrestricted free agent-to-be Al Horford and loosening the logjam in the backcourt by dealing away PG Jeff Teague, and perhaps dangling sharpshooter Kyle Korver, the Hawks instead decided to keep their core in tact and hope to rekindle some of last year’s magic their big three provided a season ago. In the end, they did free up some minutes in their backcourt by dealing PG Shelvin Mack to the Jazz, shedding Mack’s salary while adding a 2nd-round draft pick in return.

CHARLOTTE...Potential immediate help for the Hornets by adding G Courtney Lee from Memphis. Lee is capable of spreading the floor and is good enough to start, and adds needed offense in the wake of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's latest injury. Also nice insurance for HC Steve Clifford behind Kemba Walker, as Lee’s defense and ability to shoot 3s are solid assets.

CLEVELAND...The Cavs might find some use in 6-11 veteran Channing Frye, a “stretch four” who arrives from Orlando and becomes a definite rotation piece that can be used by HC Tyronn Lue. Frye’s potential to run the pick-and-pop with Kyrie Irving should be a added plus for Lue. The cost of vet C Anderson Varejao (to Portland as part of a three-team deal) might hit some Cavs fans hard, as Varejao was a long-time favorite at “The Q” and LeBron James’ last remaining link to his first stint with the Cavs. Cleveland would thus leverage Varejao’s contract (which is reduced from $10 million next season to just $4.5 million after he gets cut, as expected, by the Blazers) into a player who is instantly of more use in Frye.

DENVER...The Nuggets had a couple of vets, G Randy Foye and F J.J. Hickson, who figured to draw some interest. In the end, it would be Foye on the move to Oklahoma City. Foye had fallen out of favor in Denver and was not part of the Nuggets’ plans moving forward. Moreover, he apparently had little interest playing for a lottery team in rebuild mode. In return for Foye, Denver got PG D.J. Augustin and F Steve Novak, plus a couple of future 2nd-round picks. The benefit of those additions will be the $6 million in expiring contracts of Augustin and Novak.

DETROIT...Because the Pistons were involved in two deals, they are the unofficial “winner” of the deadline, based solely upon activity. The most significant trade brought swingman Tobias Harris from Orlando, costing Detroit G Brandon Jennings and F Ersan Ilyasova. Which broke up the NBA’s most-used five-man rotation and cost the Pistons a solid three-point threat in Ilyasova, who was hitting 36.3% beyond the arc and had developed into a workable frontline complement to Andre Drummond, while Jennings had provided some spark off the bench and depth at the point after his recovery from last year’s Achilles tendon tear. Harris, however, does reunite with HC Stan Van Gundy, under whom Tobias first flourished with the Magic, and provides the Pistons a versatile component who could be used as a “3" or a “4" who is just a year removed from scoring 17 ppg. He also provides another rotation piece on the perimeter, where his size and length can help on defense alongside and other interchangeable parts such as Stanley Johnson, Marcus Morris, and Kentavious-Caldwell Pope.

The Pistons would further help their bench in a deal with Houston that landed F Donatas Motiejunas and G Marcus Thornton, though it cost a first-round pick to the Rockets in June. If healthy, Motiejunas (a double-digit scorer last season) might help, though he has played in only handful of games this season due to back problems. Thornton has cooled off since a productive first month of the season, but at his best could provide instant offense from the bench. Just in case Detroit fades out of the playoff picture, that pick is top-eight protected. But with most observers not expecting this to be a particularly deep draft, Detroit figures it might be able to help itself more with useful rotation pieces, of which Van Gundy has been able to squeeze much out of this season.

HOUSTON...In the end, the Rockets, though a trade-deadline junkie’s dream with many portable contracts from an underperforming roster, didn’t move Howard or James Harden, each involved in some of the more far-out rumors leading to the deadline. Though sources say not for lack of trying by GM Daryl Morey, especially in regard to Howard, whose departure seemed more imminent. But with no suitable trade partners, the Rockets simply decided to wait, instead only swinging the deal with Detroit involving Motiejunas and Thornton in exchange for the Pistons’ top-eight protected first-round pick in June. In truth, Morey’s hands were mostly tied, as the Rockets were a “hard-capped” team that couldn’t exceed “the apron” (the point $4 million above the luxury-tax line of $84.74 million) in total salary at the end of any move. Expect the Rockets to revisit their reconstruction plans in the offseason.

L.A. CLIPPERS...Since Lance Stephenson never found a proper role in Doc Rivers’ rotations, and was a bit of a headache in the locker room, ridding him (to Memphis) was a blessing. Jeff Green, acquired from the Griz, is a good citizen who will likely prove a better fit in the clubhouse and the floor and provide Doc another versatile offensive option. Green for Stephenson is a net plus for the Clips...but Green for Stephenson and a protected first-round pick in 2019 might not unless Green makes a difference in the playoffs.

MEMPHIS...Looking for some frontline help in the wake of Marc Gasol’s injury, the Griz did not seem to add much with P.J. Hairston, a small forward over from Charlotte, who was only scoring 6 ppg. Journeyman C Birdman Andersen also arrives from Miami as part of this three-team deal. Adding Lance Stephenson from the Clips (for Jeff Green) furthers clouds the locker room. But the Griz was probably not going to re-sign the traded Courtney Lee this summer, and was able to add five future draft picks, so in all not a bad day.

MIAMI...The Heat add backup PG Brian Roberts from Charlotte but, more importantly, will save about $5 mill in salary by dumping the Birdman to the Griz.

OKLAHOMA CITY...The wild rumors about a potential Durant trade proved to be just that, reaffirming the belief that GM Sam Presti is doing everything he can to keep K-D in the fold when his contract expires at the end of the season. The recent near-miss vs. the Warriors in Oakland makes the Thunder believe it has a shot at Golden State, and adding vet G Randy Foye from Denver could be useful. Foye is a dangerous streak shooter who fits the "small ball" model to challenge the Warriors and prvides another weapon for HC Billy Donovan, who also now might not have to rely as much upon Dion Waiters for non-Durant/Russell Westbrook offense.

ORLANDO...The other half of the aforementioned Tobias Harris deal reunites Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova with their old Milwaukee coach, Scott Skiles, in Orlando. There might be resulting upgrades in playmaking and shooting. But with the Magic now having only a remote chance to make the playoffs after a 4-16 skid into the All-Star break, this move seems more as if it will clear up salary space in the summer for expected runs at any number of free agents. Remember, Jennings is an unrestricted free agent, and GM Rob Hennigan can excise $8 million of Ilyasova’s salary from the 2016-17 books by waiving him before July 1. By simply allowing both Jennings and Ilyasova to walk, it allows the Magic to open up more cap space (now projected at nearly $40 million) this summer. Hennigan also moved the 6-11 Channing Frye, who did not match the production from his Phoenix days, to the Cavs. With a $14 million tag for the two remaining years on his deal, Frye was simply not worth it in the scheme of the ongoing Orlando rebuild.

PHOENIX...Adding Kris Humphries and DeJuan Blair, and even a future first-pound pick from the Wizards, was almost secondary for the Suns in relation to ridding themselves of F Markieff Morris, who had emerged as a malcontent and source of irritation in the clubhouse, much of it from the Suns’ decision to trade away his twin brother Marcus to Detroit in the offseason. Just getting rid of Morris made the deadline worthwhile in a troubled season for the Suns.

UTAH...There were rumors that GM Dennis Lindsey was actively seeking PG Jeff Teague from the Hawks, hoping to bolster a position that could use an upgrade in Salt Lake City following Dante Exum’s preseason knee injury. Trey Burke’s injury woes are also a concern, but with Atlanta pulling Teague off the table, Utah instead settles for another Hawk, Shelvin Mack, who at least fills the requirement of a serviceable point guard. Mack is also the sort of supplementary spot-up shooter who can fit into Utah’s defense-first philosophy and, importantly, doesn’t figure to be in the way of Exum when the Aussie returns to active duty next season.

WASHINGTON...The Wizards decided it was worth the gamble to add PF Markieff Morris from the Suns. Though embroiled in clubhouse controversies in Phoenix, the change of scenery might do Morris some good, and the chance to add an athletic “stretch four” on an attractive contract was too good for the Wiz to bypass. Morris also rates an upgrade over Kris Humphries and DeJuan Blair, sent to Phoenix in exchange. And if Markieff helps Washington right away, it will also likely be worth the first-round pick packaged to the Suns.

[StarDust Bum]

EVENING BEST BETS:

HI at DAL 07:00 PM

DAL -9.0


LAL at CHI 08:00 PM

LAL +7.0


UTA at POR 09:00 PM

POR -2.5 BEST BET