Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/7

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, January 7

Good Luck on day #7 of 2016!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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NBA Hot and Not

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NCAAB Hot and Not

NCAAB Injuries




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[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

College basketball referees work a lot from November-March; here is what referee John Higgins has been doing for the last 7-10 days.........

Dec 29-- Texas Southern @ Baylor

Dec 30-- Nevada @ New Mexico

Dec 31-- BYU @ St Mary's

Jan 1-- Utah @ Stanford

Jan 2-- Michigan State @ Minnesota

Jan 3-- Arizona @ Arizona State-- Higgins tossed Bobby Hurley at end.

Jan 4-- Oklahoma @ Kansas-- Game went triple overtime.

Jan 5-- Kansas State @ Texas

Jan 6-- Evansville @ Wichita State

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Ranking the NFL's playoff teams.......

12) Green Bay-- Rodgers was sacked 14 times in his last two games.

11) Washington-- Won last four games, three of which were on road.

10) Houston-- 7-2 in their last nine games after a 2-5 start.

9) Minnesota-- Going to be sub-zero for their game on Sunday.

8) Cincinnati-- Their last playoff win was in 1990: I had hair then!!!!

7) Steelers-- I beat this to death every time an NFL team fires a coach too soon; the Steelers have had three head coaches...........since 1969

6) Seahawks-- Ted Cruz was born in Calgary; if he shows up at a campaign event wearing a Calgary Flames jersey I promise to vote for him. Have some fun with it.

5) Chiefs-- They haven't lost since the Royals won the World Series; they haven't won a playoff game since 1993.

4) Denver-- Don't have lot of confidence in their chances, even at home.

3) New England-- Who are the three people who didn't vote for Junior Griffey for the Hall of Fame? They need to be identified.

2) Arizona-- Now is the hour for Carson Palmer and the Redbirds. Why did Mike Piazza have to wait four years to get into the Hall of Fame?

1) Carolina-- Think about Lovie Smith getting fired last night; in Ron Rivera's first two years with the Panthers, they went 13-19, but they kept him and they're 34-13-1 in three years since then. Firing a guy after two years makes very little sense.

[Udog]

Bettors buy back Clemson, sharp money moves CFP title game total

With sportsbooks moving Clemson to a touchdown underdog vs. Alabama in the national title game, bettors are starting to buy back the Tigers and the points.

It didn’t take long for sportsbooks to realize that they had greatly underestimated the Alabama Crimson Tide in their College Football Playoff odds. In fact, it took less than 60 minutes of football for books to figure out Alabama was the team to beat, as the Tide demolished Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Eve.

“About two weeks or so before the playoff games, we opened odds on all the potential matchups and had Alabama -4 versus Clemson. It drew zero handle – no one bet it,” Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, tells Covers. “But with Alabama up 31-0 in the third quarter versus Michigan State, we opened Alabama -4.5 (versus Clemson). They (bettors) laid that -4.5, laid -6, laid -6.5 and that’s how we ended up at -7.”

A similar story played out online at Sportsbook.ag, which opened the Crimson Tide as more conservative 6-point favorites. But after thrashing the Spartans in the semifinal, the betting public was in love with Nick Saban’s program and pushed their line toward a touchdown.

“Honestly, we thought using -6 was a bit of an inflated number but it wasn’t inflated enough as money poured in on Alabama,” Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management for Sportsbook.ag, tells Covers. “Looking back, it makes sense as Bama absolutely crushed Michigan State and that crushing was literally happening as we opened the line. As money came in on Alabama, we quickly went to -6.5 and then to -7.”

Once books adjusted the National Championship spread to a touchdown, money started to show up on the underdog from the ACC. According to multiple sportsbooks, Clemson money has started to come in as of midweek and some shops have trimmed half a point off the spread, dealing Alabama -6.5.

According to William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, 61 percent of the betting handle for the January 11 title game is riding on the Crimson Tide with 71 percent of wagers being placed on the SEC power. However, one trend showing up at sportsbooks is moneyline bets being placed on the Tigers, with bettors passing on the points and taking Clemson to win outright at +220.

The total for the National Championship Game has also moved significantly at some sportsbooks, opening as high as 53.5 and drawing one-sided sharp action on the Under since the Alabama-Clemson matchup was made.

“They’ve been betting the Under hard, which makes sense because that (opening) total was too high,” Scott Kaminsky, sportsbook director at TheGreek.com, tells Covers. “We opened 53 and dropped to 50.5. I would have made the total much lower.”

But like most high-profile games, while the sharp money may side with the Under, the betting public is hoping for an exciting high-scoring game, and gravitates toward the Over. This number may not be done moving, with plenty of time for the public to make its opinion felt between Wednesday and Monday night’s kickoff.

“Being a championship game and knowing the betting public is going to get involved in this game in a big way, we opened our total high assuming sharps would bet it Under and the public would bet it Over," says Childs, who opened the total at 53 points. “For now, we’re happy with our action and it’s somewhat balanced with just over 60 percent on the Over. But I do see us having to at least get back to 52 as we get closer to game time.”

The total may not be the only odds looking different come Monday night. The books that are dealing Alabama -6.5 have a feeling they will get back to a touchdown spread with the public pounding the Crimson Tide, after such a dominant display in the Cotton Bowl and the prestige of the SEC – compared to the lack of depth in the ACC.

“You have to think the game will close seven,” says Kaminsky. “Based on Alabama’s performance against MSU, and that I just think the line should be -7. Clemson is good and all, but I think the Alabama defense is the big difference. I think they’ll be able to stop that Clemson offense. Defense is the key when it comes to winning championships and this defense is exceptional.”

Alabama has covered in its last four meetings with ACC schools and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven bowl games. Clemson has covered in four straight postseason games and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests.

[Udog]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, January 7

Hot teams
-- 76ers split their last six games (4-2 vs spread).
-- Chicago won its last five games (3-1 last four HF).
-- Lakers won three of their last four games (3-1 last four AU).

Cold teams
-- Hawks lost three of last four games (1-4 last five AF).
-- Celtics lost three of last four games (6-2AU).
-- Jazz are 3-5 in their last eight games (1-4 last five AU). Houston lost four of its last five games (4-10HF).
-- Sacramento lost four of its last six games (5-5HF).

Series records
-- 76ers lost eight of last nine games with Atlanta.
-- Bulls won six of last eight games with Boston.
-- Rockets won eight of last ten games with Utah.
-- Lakers lost five of their last six games with Sacramento.

Totals
-- Nine of last ten Atlanta games went over total.
-- Over is 8-2 in last ten Chicago games, 1-6 in last seven Boston tilts.
-- Four of last five Houston games went over total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Sacramento games.

Back/backs
-- Celtics are 3-1 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Utah is 4-2 vs spread if it played the night before.




NBA

Thursday, January 7

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta

8:00 PM
UTAH vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Utah's last 19 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
BOSTON vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

10:30 PM
LA LAKERS vs. SACRAMENTO
The total has gone OVER in 16 of the LA Lakers last 23 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
LA Lakers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Sacramento's last 12 games


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[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, January 7


Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Game 701-702
January 7, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
117.930
Philadelphia
112.731
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 5
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 9
204 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+9); Over

Boston @ Chicago

Game 703-704
January 7, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
117.510
Chicago
120.540
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 3
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 5 1/2
203
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+5 1/2); Over

Utah @ Houston

Game 705-706
January 7, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
113.102
Houston
123.645
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 10 1/2
192
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 9
198
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-9); Under

LA Lakers @ Sacramento

Game 707-708
January 7, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
111.639
Sacramento
122.420
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Sacramento
by 11
193
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Sacramento
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
N/A

[Udog]

Never mind..... misfire.

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, January 7

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Atlanta: 21-8 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5
Philadelphia: 2-10 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog

Boston at Chicago, 8:05 ET
Boston: 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6
Chicago: 23-37 ATS after a game where they covered the spread

Utah at Houston, 8:05 ET
Utah: 14-2 ATS in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more
Houston: 6-16 ATS after playing a game as favorite

LA Lakers at Sacramento, 10:35 ET
Los Angeles: 5-1 ATS after a game with 15 or less assists
Sacramento: 13-18 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread

[Udog]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, January 7

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ATLANTA (21 - 15) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 33) - 1/7/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 72-58 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 94-138 ATS (-57.8 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 5-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (19 - 16) at CHICAGO (21 - 12) - 1/7/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 56-37 ATS (+15.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 68-51 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-3 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 6-2 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (15 - 19) at HOUSTON (17 - 19) - 1/7/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 63-49 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 26-4 ATS (+21.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 47-17 ATS (+28.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-3 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 6-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (8 - 28) at SACRAMENTO (14 - 21) - 1/7/2016, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 24-39 ATS (-18.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 186-231 ATS (-68.1 Units) after a division game since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 27-40 ATS (-17.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 48-64 ATS (-22.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 40-58 ATS (-23.8 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 5-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 5-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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