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**Udog** · 12-29-2015, 07:26 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six of Week 17's more interesting NFL games.........

-- Jets (-3) @ Buffalo-- Rex Ryan can knock his old team out of playoffs.

-- Jaguars @ Texans (-6.5)-- Houston wins division unless nine things happen, one of which is losing this game.

-- Steelers (-10) @ Browns-- Pittsburgh needs a win and a Jet loss.

-- Titans @ Colts (NL)-- Indy is basically out of healthy quarterbacks, but they're not dead in playoff race yet. Miami alum Stephen Morris could play QB.

-- Chargers @ Denver (-7.5)--- Broncos win AFC West with a win here.

-- Vikings @ Packers (-3)-- Winner gets home game in playoffs next week.

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.........

13) Broncos 20, Bengals 17 OT-- Highly entertaining game that put Denver in the playoffs; on their first three drives, Bengals gained 205 yards on 38 plays, scoring 14 points but missing a FG at end of the third drive, when they led 14-0.

From that point on, Cincinnati gained 90 yards on 35 plays over seven drives, scoring three points. Andy Dalton's thumb better start healing faster.

12) Navy 44, Pittsburgh 28--- Last college game for Navy QB Reynolds, who was a great player in his Middie career. This was first bowl win this year for the AAC.

11) Minnesota 21, Central Michigan 14-- Three 5-7 teams got to bowl games this year, because there are too many bowls and not enough good teams. Oddly, all three of the 5-7 teams won their bowl games and two of them covered as favorites. MAC ends this bowl season 3-4, after being 4-12 in bowls the previous three years.

10) Reds traded closer Aroldis Chapman to Bronx for four minor league prospects, none of whom are considered elite prospects. Chapman made $8M LY and is eligible for arbitration this winter, so this was mostly a salary dump by Cincinnati.

9) Phoenix Suns fired two assistant coaches, as they search for scapegoats for their terrible 12-21 start that won't get better soon since Eric Bledsoe just got hurt. Losing to a 2-30 Sixers squad that has Mike D'antoni as an assistant coach was probably the straw that broke the camel's back. Suns never should've fired D'Antoni as coach.

8) My flight home from Las Vegas Saturday night seemed so much shorter because I bought a John Grisham book and read most of it by time we landed here in beautiful upstate New York. Grisham is a great writer; he's written over 30 books and if you like to read, they're well worth your time.

7) Speaking of upstate New York, it is snowing outside as I type this, first time this fall/winter it has snowed at Armadillo World HQ. 76 days until Selection Sunday, 97 until Opening Day of baseball season. Snow is evil.

6) How times have changed: NFL teams used to play six preseason games. In 1976, Dick Vermeil's first year with the Eagles, Philly had two-a-day practices six weeks in a row. Now, I'm not sure two-a-days are even allowed.

5) Indianapolis Colts have a miniscule chance of making the playoffs, but they do have a chance. Problem is, Andrew Luck is still hurt; so is Matt Hasselbeck and they ruled out 3rd-stringer Charlie Whitehurst (hamstring), which leaves them with Miami alum Stephen Morris, who has never played in an NFL game, to be its QB Sunday.

4) NFL schedule trivia: After Sunday night's NFL game, the 2016 schedule will be established, as far as who plays who and where. The when is what makes the whole thing interesting; that gets released in April, but for instance, the loser of the Giants-Eagles game Sunday plays the Rams in London next year.

The winner of this week's Chicago-Detroit game hosts the Rams next fall.

3) Arizona Cardinals have 14 takeways (+12) in their last five games.

2) Guy named Mike Black is a spotter for Monday Night Football on ESPN; he was a kicker at Boise State in college and kicked for several teams in the Arena League, one of which was the Iowa Barnstormers, where his holder was a guy named Kurt Warner.

1) RIP Dave Henderson, who died of cardiac arrest this weekend at age 57. He was a key member of the A's 1989 World Series champs, and hit .298 with seven HRs in 36 career postseason games. From 1988-91 he hit 84 HRs for the A's and was an All-Star in 1991. He always played the game with great enthusiasm. RIP, sir.

**Udog** · 12-29-2015, 07:27 AM

Packers open as 3-point home faves versus Vikings with NFC North title on the line

At 12-3 against the spread (10-5 straight up), the Minnesota Vikings are the second best spread wager in the NFL.

We’ve finally hit the last week of the regular season in the NFL, and with a host of games holding playoff ramifications, no less. Perhaps the most intriguing matchup will take place on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, between NFC North rivals Green Bay and Minnesota.

Both teams have already punched their postseason tickets. But the winner of this game wins the division, which comes with the No. 3 seed and a home game in the wild-card round of the playoffs. Both teams also enter this game following Week 16 blowouts, though they were on opposite sides of those results.

Green Bay (10-5 SU, 9-6 SU) went to Arizona as a 6-point underdog and got waxed by the Cardinals 38-8 Sunday. The loss halted a 4-1 SU and ATS surge by the Packers, including 3-0 SU and ATS in their previous three games.

On the flip side, in the Sunday night game, Minnesota manhandled a New York Giants squad that already knew it had nothing to play for, due to the Washington Redskins’ victory at Philadelphia on Saturday. The Vikings (10-5 SU, 12-3 ATS), with the second-best spread-covering record in the league, plowed to a 49-17 home victory laying 7 points.

The Packers and Vikings met Nov. 22 in Minnesota, with the Pack rolling 30-13 as 1-point pups, the win that started Green Bay’s 4-1 SU and ATS streak. John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, had to hold off on posting a line, waiting to see how Minnesota comes out of the Sunday night game injury-wise, but he expects Green Bay to be a solid home favorite.

“A division title will be on the line, so we’re in for a great Week 17 bout,” Lester said. “The first matchup was completely one-sided, as the Vikings got behind big early, and they aren’t a team that is built to win from behind. But quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has really looked like a more confident player over the past couple of weeks. If everything goes accordingly Sunday night, the Packers will open around touchdown chalk.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, was seeing things tighter than that.

“I thought about opening this line at 5 or so, but the way Green Bay played against Arizona, and with the Packers having only two quality wins all year, I'll settle around 3 points,” Avello said. “The Vikings haven't beat the Pack in their last five meetings, but this one has more meaning than the last five combined.”

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-4)

Arizona (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) is already guaranteed no worse than the No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye. But if somehow Tampa Bay beats Carolina in an early game next Sunday, the Cards could get the top seed by winning their late afternoon game against Seattle.

The Cardinals drubbed Green Bay 38-8 Sunday as 6-point home chalk for their ninth consecutive SU victory (5-4 ATS).

Seattle (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS), locked into a wild-card playoff spot, was a hefty 11.5-point home fave Sunday against St. Louis, but couldn’t find a way to win, let alone cover. The Seahawks trailed 16-0 in the second quarter and ultimately lost 23-17.

Back in mid-November, Arizona went to Seattle as a 3-point pup and held on for a 39-32 outright victory.

“In meeting No. 1 this year, the Cards showed confidence as they jumped out to a big lead, fell behind and then rallied for the victory,” Avello said. “There's a changing of the guard in the NFC West, and the ‘Hawks need to play flawless to win in the desert.”

Lester pointed out that, should Carolina win, Arizona has nothing to play for.

“There was some discussion among our team to make the Cardinals a bit higher favorite, but considering there’s a chance they could sit some personnel, we settled on -4,” Lester said. “Seattle is also already in the second season and could do the same, but we aren’t anticipating that. Early money came in on the underdog, and we moved to -3 within the first half hour.”

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

Now that Carolina has lost, Kansas City is tied with Arizona for the longest active winning streak in the NFL. The Chiefs (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) started out 1-5 SU and ATS, but they haven’t lost since. On Sunday, they won their ninth in a row (7-2 ATS) fending off Cleveland 17-13, though K.C. fell well short at the betting window as an 11.5-point home fave.

The Chiefs have locked up at least a wild-card bid, but could still catch or even overtake Denver and win the AFC West.

Oakland (7-8 SU and ATS) has been hit-and-miss all season, but is still far better than last year’s squad, which dropped its first 10 games en route to a 3-13 SU mark. On Thursday night, the Raiders squeaked by San Diego 23-20 in overtime, just short of cashing as a 4-point fave.

“Even though the Chiefs have clinched a playoff berth, we don’t think they’ll be diverting from the norm in Week 17, especially considering their norm is vanilla,” Lester said. “The Raiders have been a popular play among the public recently, and this spread will probably shift south at some point. I’d be hard-pressed to bet against K.C. at the moment, with the way that defense is playing.”

Indeed, during their current run, the Chiefs have held seven opponents to 14 points or less. But Avello expects a game effort from Oakland.

“Unlike season-ending games where teams have nothing to play for and just want to call it a year, the Raiders will not be experimenting and will bring the entire arsenal,” he said. “A 6- to 7-point spread should be about right here, with K.C.’s home-field advantage.”

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

If Denver (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) doesn’t take care of business tonight at home against Cincinnati, it could be fighting for its playoff life against the Chargers. Recent performances certainly don’t bode well for the Broncos, who lost at home to Oakland in an uninspired Week 14 performance, then blew a 27-13 halftime lead at Pittsburgh in Week 15, losing 34-27 as 7.5-point pups.

San Diego (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) has a record that could easily be far better. The Chargers have lost seven games by a touchdown or less, including four by four points or less. That included last Thursday night’s 23-20 overtime setback catching 4 points at Oakland.

With Denver in the Monday nighter to cap Week 16, the line will have to wait on this contest. And there’s a chance that Peyton Manning might return for the regular-season finale, too.

“The Chargers have quietly been playing good ball the last couple of weeks, actually all year to some extent, but they don’t get any respect from the betting public,” Lester said. “We’ll have to be generous with the Denver side for this afternoon affair.”

Added Avello: “This one might or might not mean a thing, depending on Denver's Monday night outcome. Denver's offense has relied on its defense all year, and that defense is now starting to show signs of wear and tear.”

**Udog** · 12-29-2015, 07:27 AM

Football bettors must react quickly to these NFL Week 17 odds

A Green Bay loss means schlepping on the road in the opening round, and as their 38-8 loss at Arizona showed, the Packers are not the same team away from home.

Spread to bet on now

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Five straight wins, three straight losses, three straight wins. And now a 30-point mail-it-in loss to the Cardinals. What’s going on with the Packers?

Aaron Rodgers says not to worry, that when the real season starts the real Pack will be back. Well, this one qualifies as the real season, because it’s winner-take-all for the NFC title, a No. 3 seed in the playoffs and a home game on wild card weekend.

A GB loss means schlepping on the road in the opening round, and as their 38-8 loss at Arizona showed, the Packers are not the same team away from home. GB is 4-3 ATS at home this season, and this line is not likely to move.

Spread to wait on

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+9)

No one is crying about the injury problems facing the Patriots, but being banged up has had a major impact on New England’s offense. The Patriots have scored 30 points in a game only once (Tennessee) since October, and the offensive line is so hurting that NE has gone to a quick passing attack to protect Tom Brady and has almost completely abandoned the run.

Defenses are starting to adjust. Whether the listless Dolphins – who have lost three straight, five of their last six and haven’t covered a spread since Nov. 15 – can take advantage of the Pats’ issues is anyone’s guess.

New England has struggled in Miami, but this Dolphin team doesn’t seem to have any fight left in it. Lots of moving parts here in an awkward line that could shift as we find out who will play for NE, and who won’t.

Total to watch

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (43)

For all the talk of the Bills being ready to take the next step and finally challenge the Patriots in an AFC East that seems to be owned by New England, it was actually the Jets who have made things interesting this year.

Buffalo can max out at 8-8 this season after going 9-7 pre-Rex Ryan, and for all the talk about Ryan’s defensive acumen, Buffalo has been a below-average defensive team (20th overall).

The Jets, meanwhile, have been the real deal – holding their last five opponents to fewer than 20 points. For comparative purposes, Buffalo won 22-17, in their first meeting.

**Udog** · 12-29-2015, 07:37 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, December 29

Detroit @ New York

Game 501-502
December 29, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
117.621
New York
119.039
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New York
by 1 1/2
206
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 1 1/2
198
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(+1 1/2); Over

Miami @ Memphis

Game 503-504
December 29, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
117.521
Memphis
118.360
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 1
201
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
N/A

Milwaukee @ Oklahoma City

Game 505-506
December 29, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
112.725
Oklahoma City
128.740
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 16
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 13 1/2
204
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-13 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Houston

Game 507-508
December 29, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
120.069
Houston
125.197
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 5
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-2 1/2); Under

Cleveland @ Denver

Game 509-510
December 29, 2015 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
122.865
Denver
112.878
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 10
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 6
197
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-6); Over

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, December 29

Hot teams
-- Thunder won 10 of its last 12 games (4-9 last 13HF).
-- Houston is 9-5 in its last 14 games (4-0 last four HF). Hawks won six of their last seven games (4-4AU).
-- Cavaliers won seven of their last nine games (3-8AF).

Cold teams
-- Pistons lost last two games, by 7-6 points (2-4AF). New York lost its last four games (2-5HU).
-- Memphis is 4-6 in its last ten games (5-7HF). Miami lost four of its last six games (2-3AU).
-- Bucks lost five of their last seven games (4-8 last 12 AU).
-- Denver lost five of its last six games (4-6HU).

Series records
-- Knicks lost four of last five games with Detroit.
-- Grizzlies won three of last four games with Miami.
-- Thunder won five of last seven games with Milwaukee.
-- Hawks won their last three games with Houston.
-- Cavaliers won three of last four games with denver.

Totals
-- Last five New York home games went over total.
-- Eight of ten Miami road games stayed under total.
-- Under is 7-2 in last nine Oklahoma City home games.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Cleveland games stayed under.

Back/backs
-- Miami is 2-1 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Bucks are 6-1 vs sread if they played night before.
-- Atlanta is 0-3 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Cavaliers are 1-4 vs spread if they layed night before.

NBA

Tuesday, December 29

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
DETROIT vs. NEW YORK
Detroit is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against New York
Detroit is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New York's last 10 games when playing Detroit
New York is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

8:00 PM
MIAMI vs. MEMPHIS
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing Miami

8:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. HOUSTON
Atlanta is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Oklahoma City is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games at home

9:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. DENVER
Cleveland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Denver is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing Cleveland
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland

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**Udog** · 12-29-2015, 08:55 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, December 29

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DETROIT (17 - 14) at NEW YORK (14 - 18) - 12/29/2015, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 40-57 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 5-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (18 - 12) at MEMPHIS (17 - 16) - 12/29/2015, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (12 - 20) at OKLAHOMA CITY (21 - 10) - 12/29/2015, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 229-286 ATS (-85.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (20 - 13) at HOUSTON (16 - 16) - 12/29/2015, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 295-235 ATS (+36.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
HOUSTON is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 71-56 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (20 - 9) at DENVER (12 - 19) - 12/29/2015, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 24-37 ATS (-16.7 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
DENVER is 18-32 ATS (-17.2 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-29-2015, 12:34 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, December 29

Detroit at New York, 7:35 ET
Detroit: 23-9 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3
New York: 4-13 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less

Miami at Memphis, 8:05 ET
Miami: 4-13 ATS after scoring 105 points or more
Memphis: 19-9 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less

Milwaukee at Oklahoma City, 8:05 ET
Milwaukee: 12-3 ATS after 2 games where opponent was called for 18 or less fouls
Oklahoma City: 23-36 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread

Atlanta at Houston, 8:05 ET
Atlanta: 20-7 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5
Houston: 2-12 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5

Cleveland at Denver, 9:05 ET
Cleveland: 7-0 UNDER after a non-conference game
Denver: 1-10 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more

**Udog** · 12-29-2015, 12:44 PM

NBA

Tuesday, December 29

The OKC Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference and host the Bucks Tuesday.

The Favorite is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings between the Pistons and Knicks.

Announcement

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 12/29

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 12/29

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