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**Udog** · 12-22-2015, 08:37 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Odds on some teams to win college basketball national title in April......

-- 5-1-- Kentucky-- they're not close to as good as they were last year.

-- 8-1-- Cincinnati-- Opened at 60-1 last April.

-- 10-1-- North Carolina, Maryland

-- 12-1-- Virginia, Kansas, Duke

-- 15-1-- Villanova, Michigan State

-- 25-1-- Gonzaga, Miami, Purdue

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Random thoughts on a winter day........

13) Many thanks to Ken Thomson of SportsX Radio for having me in studio as a guest on last night's show; if you really like sports, thats a good show to listen to-- you will learn stuff if you tune in.

12) Lions 35, Saints 27-- Funny how Monday Night Football finds its way to the Big Easy most every December- they must have some good Christmas parties. Will be interesting to see if Saints bring Sean Payton/Drew Brees back next year.

11) I'm guessing Steve Harvey's career as a beauty pageant emcee is over, after he butchered the end of the Miss Universe Pageant Sunday night. He announced a winner; problem is, he announced the wrong contestant as the winner and it took five minutes to sort it out and get the right winner named. Very, very awkward.

10) Nothing says the holidays here in Las Vegas like the sounds of slot machines combined with an instrumental version of Frosty the Snowman. Tremendous.

9) St John's lost to College of Incarnate Word and NJIT last weekend, after they had beaten Syracuse the week before. Going to be a long winter for Chris Mullin's team. 2016 is a leap year too, so February has one more day than usual. \

8) Kellen Moore is getting his first NFL start this weekend, for the Cowboys in Buffalo; Moore is the 4th starting QB for Dallas in their 15 games.

7) I've talked a few times about the movie Leap of Faith, where Steve Martin plays a travelling preacher/huckster- excellent movie. Sunday morning I put the TV on and this guy is on TV preaching, not unlike Martin, except with a few less theaterics and in an arena that has to house an NBA or NHL team-- 15-18,000 people- it was packed.

This guy is buying time on USA Network; he must be freakin' loaded- he looks like Jason Sehorn. Apparently he's written a bunch of books too. Good for him.

6) Was bothered by an interview I saw on ESPN's pregame show Sunday; Michael Strahan, an ex-Giant, interviewing current Giant Jason Pierre Paul about his injured hnd that was damaged while he was messing around with fireworks last July 4th. It wasn't journalism, it was two pals sitting around berating the media because some of them called Pierre-Paul "stupid" and other things after his costly injury.

If you're a professional athlete whose career is shortened because you messed around wth explosive devices you aren't an expert with, I'm sorry-- that makes you stupid.

5) Ray Lewis actually blamed Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning for Odell Beckham's bad day Sunday; Lewis says Coughlin/Manning should've pulled Beckham away, given him a lecture before things got out of hand. Why not just blame Beckham for losing his cool? Would it be so hard to do that? How is it possibly the quarterback's fault?

4) Odell Beckham Jr is suspended for Sunday night's game at Minnesota, the last Viking outdoor home game, with their new dome opening next season. My thought is to suspend him for Week 17 instead, a game with the Eagles that could decide the NFC East champ. That would be more of a penalty than suspending him for this week.

3) Other than late reports who is playing/sitting, NFL pregame shows I've seen are mostly huge wastes of time. These shows need to let the "experts" pick games against the spread. It is 2015, for Pete's sake- join the rest of the world.

2) WCC conference play started last night; all four home teams won, with three easy wins and Pacific's OT win over Santa Clara.

1) Oregon 72, Alabama 68-- Ducks were down 12 at half in Tuscaloosa, rallied to win behind a strong second half. Dana Altman is an underrated coach.

**Udog** · 12-22-2015, 08:38 AM

Short spread hits the board as Jets host Patriots in key Week 16 NFL matchup

New England (12-2 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) has put a two-game SU hiccup behind it with a pair of easy victories, including Sunday’s 33-16 win over Tennessee as hefty 14.5-point home chalk.

If the New York Jets want to go to the playoffs, or at least stay firmly in the chase, they’re going to have to do something they’ve done just once since the beginning of the 2011 season.

Beat the New England Patriots.

As the NFL hits Week 16, the Jets-Pats matchup is among several key contests with playoff implications. The Jets are just 1-8 SU in their last eight meetings with New England, most recently losing 30-23 as 7-point road underdogs back in October. That began a 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS skid, but New York has since rebounded to go 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) and get the season back on track.

On Saturday night, the Jets (9-5 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) edged Dallas 19-16 on a last-minute field goal to push as 3-point road favorites.

Meanwhile, New England (12-2 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) has put a two-game SU hiccup behind it with a pair of easy victories, including Sunday’s 33-16 win over Tennessee as hefty 14.5-point home chalk.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, installed the Pats as a 3-point favorite.

“We’re expecting another tight game between these two teams,” Lester said. “We opened the Jets too high in the first matchup, but they’ve earned our respect since. This is a good line that we don’t think will move too much, and it may not attract much interest from the sharp bettors.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, wouldn’t be surprised if Tom Brady’s arm gets another big workout in this game.

“In the first meeting this season, New England’s game plan was to pass and abandon the run. Brady threw 54 times and the running backs got only nine carries for 16 yards,” Avello said. “You can understand why, as the Jets’ pass defense is in the bottom third of the league. It’ll be a short spread for this one – the Pats by around a field goal.”

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)

Two teams that have already punched their playoff tickets get a nice tune-up in the desert.

If not for Carolina’s improbable perfect season in progress, Arizona (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS) would be all the rage in the NFC. Carson Palmer and Co. have ripped off eight consecutive SU wins (4-4 ATS), including Sunday night’s 40-17 shelling of Philadelphia as 3.5-point road faves.

Green Bay (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) is on a 4-1 SU and ATS stretch, winning and cashing its last three in a row. The Packers topped Oakland 30-20 Sunday as a 4-point road chalk.

With Arizona having played late Sunday, the line is still in the works.

“These two may be playing again in a few weeks, so this is a good ‘get to know you’ game,” Avello said. “The game actually does have meaning, as the second seed in the NFC and first place in the NFC North are both still undecided. This is Sunday’s showcase game.”

Lester said the Cards will certainly be favored, which could get the public on Green Bay.

“We’ll look to make Arizona around 4-point favorites,” Lester said. “The public should be looking to back the Pack getting points. It’s the second straight West Coast game for Green Bay, and the Cardinals are crazy good at home.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

Two weeks ago, Denver was the AFC’s No. 1 seed – with a backup quarterback, no less – and had a home date against Oakland looking like a sure win. But the Broncos blew that game by getting just four field goals in a 15-12 loss laying 6 points, and on Sunday at Pittsburgh, Denver failed to score a second-half point, turning a 27-13 lead into a 34-27 loss catching 7.5 points.

So Denver (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) is now the No. 3 seed, and only a game ahead of red-hot Kansas City in the AFC West.

Cincinnati (11-3 SU, 11-2-1 ATS) was without Andy Dalton (broken thumb), but had enough in the tank to beat hapless San Francisco 24-14 giving 7 points on the road Sunday.

“Two of the better defenses we have go at it on ‘Monday Night Football,’” Avello said. “Look for conservative game plans from both squads in what could end up being a playoff preview. These are pretty evenly matched teams on paper, so we accounted for Denver’s home-field advantage when setting this line.”

Avello expects Brock Osweiler to again start for Denver in place of the healing Peyton Manning, and he believes the Broncos will give Cincy backup QB A.J. McCarron some trouble.

“For turnover purposes, McCarron was mistake-free for Cincinnati against the 49ers, but that may be more difficult against a Denver team that just let two straight games slip away,” Avello said. “Osweiler and the Broncos should be focused for a game that will likely decide the AFC’s No. 2 seed.”

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Redskins finally gave the NFC East one team without a losing record, taking over first place with a 35-25 victory catching 2.5 points against visiting Buffalo on Sunday. That moved Washington to .500 at 7-7 SU and ATS.

But Philadelphia (6-8 SU and ATS) still controls its own destiny, even after getting shelled by Arizona 40-17 on Sunday night as a 3.5-point home pup. If the Eagles win out – on Saturday night against Washington and in Week 17 at the New York Giants – they win the NFC East.

Back in October, host Washington edged Philly 23-20 as a 3-point home pup.

“We have a round-robin tournament over the next two weeks to determine the NFC East winner,” Avello said. “The ‘Skins won the first meeting by a field goal, and that’s how the last three in this rivalry have been decided. Expect more of the same.”

Lester hadn’t yet posted a number, but has a small one in mind.

“The Eagles will be in the 3-point chalk range for this Saturday night showdown,” he said. “The Redskins are starting to look like the team that wants to grab this slow-paced NFC East race. That said, Philly seems to win games it shouldn’t, and Washington hasn’t been great on the road.”

**Udog** · 12-22-2015, 08:46 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, December 22

Hot teams
-- Mavericks won three of last four road games (5-3 last 8AU).
-- Pistons won four of last five games (1-4 last five AU)- they won last game in four OTs Friday. Miami won four of its last five (2-6 in last eight HF). .

Cold teams
-- 1-28 Philly is 0-9-1 vs spread in its last ten games. Grizzlies lost four of their last six games (3-1AF).
-- Toronto lost three of its last four games (1-6 last seven HF).
-- Lakers lost eight of their last nine games (3-10 last 13AU). Denver lost last two games by 9-5 points (0-3HF).

Series records
-- 76ers lost nine of their last ten games with Memphis.
-- Raptors won four of last six games with Dallas.
-- Pistons won three of last four games with Miami.
-- Lakers lost nine of their last ten games with Denver.

Totals
-- Four of last six Philly games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Dallas games stayed under total.
-- Last five Detroit games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Denver games.

Back/backs
-- None

NBA

Tuesday, December 22

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. PHILADELPHIA
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Memphis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis

7:30 PM
DETROIT vs. MIAMI
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami's last 19 games when playing at home against Detroit

7:30 PM
DALLAS vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games on the road
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Toronto is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing Dallas

9:00 PM
LA LAKERS vs. DENVER
LA Lakers are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games when playing Denver
LA Lakers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games

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**Udog** · 12-22-2015, 10:19 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, December 22

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MEMPHIS (15 - 14) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 28) - 12/22/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 48-24 ATS (+21.6 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 117-86 ATS (+22.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 145-110 ATS (+24.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in December games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 102-137 ATS (-48.7 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 5-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (15 - 12) at TORONTO (17 - 12) - 12/22/2015, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (16 - 12) at MIAMI (16 - 10) - 12/22/2015, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 118-156 ATS (-53.6 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.
MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-4 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (4 - 23) at DENVER (11 - 16) - 12/22/2015, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 6-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 7-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-22-2015, 10:55 AM

Football bettors must react quickly to these NFL Week 16 odds

The Chiefs are the hottest team in the AFC and bettors may want to grab their Week 16 spread now before it gets even bigger.

Spread to bet now

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)

There’s no hotter cover team in the league than the Kansas City Chiefs, who were left for dead on the side of the road in mid-October but now have run off eight straight SU wins, covering the spread in seven of them.

The Chiefs have beaten good teams (Denver, Pittsburgh), bad teams (Baltimore, San Diego, Detroit) and average teams (Oakland) as they beat all odds in crowding into the playoff picture. They’re 9-5 with the cupcake Browns headed into Arrowhead this Sunday, and laying 12.5 points doesn’t seem all that unreasonable given that Cleveland was beaten up in Seattle Sunday and is on its annual trek to nowhere. Early money is on Kansas City, so if you like the Chiefs to cover you best jump before the line hits 13.

Spread to wait on

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)

Heavy early money is down on the Seahawks, who have won five straight and have locked down a playoff spot. But is the public wrong on this one? The Seahawks have little to play for other than wanting to keep the freight train rolling downhill, and St. Louis isn’t exactly cashing in its chips.

The Rams, who might be again calling Los Angeles home in a few months, have won two in a row and have covered the number in both. Problem is, St. Louis has played poorly against decent teams - one rare exception being its win over Seattle on opening day. Might be a good idea to hold off a bit on this one and see if the line budges a half a point either way.

Total to watch

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (41)

Interesting dilemma faced here by the Bengals, who desperately need to win this one to hold off the Broncos and secure a bye in the first round of the playoffs, hopefully giving QB Andy Dalton time to heal and get back on the field.

A.J. McCarron did OK (15/21, TD) in Cincinnati’s win over San Francisco, but Denver’s defense will be smarting after getting taken apart by the Steelers Sunday. It’s hard to see the Bronco defense laying two eggs in a row. Still, 41 is a low number for two teams with a decent amount of playmakers, so an Over play deserves a hard look.

**Udog** · 12-22-2015, 01:28 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, December 22

Memphis @ Philadelphia

Game 501-502
December 22, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
116.829
Philadelphia
103.679
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 13
190
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 10
195
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(-10); Under

Dallas @ Toronto

Game 503-504
December 22, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
116.595
Toronto
121.970
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 5 1/2
191
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 4
196
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-4); Under

Detroit @ Miami

Game 505-506
December 22, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
120.971
Miami
119.526
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1 1/2
198
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 4
194
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+4); Over

LA Lakers @ Denver

Game 507-508
December 22, 2015 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
107.338
Denver
110.534
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 3
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 5
203 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(+5); Over

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, December 22

Memphis at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Memphis: 47-23 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog
Philadelphia: 0-8 ATS after having lost 18 or more of their last 20

Dallas at Toronto, 7:35 ET
Dallas: 7-19 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders
Toronto: 12-4 ATS after playing a game as favorite

Detroit at Miami, 7:35 ET
Detroit: 22-9 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more
Miami: 5-18 ATS against Central division opponents

LA Lakers at Denver, 9:05 ET
Los Angeles: 6-15 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent
Denver: 78-49 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite

**Udog** · 12-22-2015, 01:41 PM

Best Spot Bets Over The Holidays

Letdown spot

The Cleveland Cavaliers take on the Golden State Warriors in the main event on NBA Christmas Day, a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals. The Warriors have been rolling through the competition since knocking off LeBron James and the Cavs in the finals and Cleveland has had this one circled on the calendar, looking to make a statement to open the second half of the season.

Win or loss on Dec. 25, Cleveland is wide open for a letdown spot the following night visiting the Portland Trail Blazers. The Cavaliers will also have two days off following the Portland game, in which the team will likely scatter and spend time with their families after missing the Christmas holiday on the road. That letdown – coupled with a possible unfocused Cleveland team – makes for a dangerous spot on Dec. 26.

Lookahead spot

You could say the Montreal Canadiens are in an extended lookahead spot, counting down the days until goaltender Carey Price returns, which won’t be until the New Year. Until then, the Habs are mired in a nasty losing skid, dropping three straight coming into the week and picking up just two wins in their last 10 games.

The Canadiens desperately need some time away from the ice to heal and clear their heads. Montreal has a hectic schedule before the holiday break, playing in Nashville Monday and Minnesota Tuesday before some much-needed down time. Beware of the Habs looking past these opponents and to time away from their losing skid this week.

Schedule spot

The Texas Southern Tigers see light at the end of the tunnel as it pertains to their road-heavy non-conference schedule. The Tigers have played five in a row away from home and have two more road games before a homecoming on New Year’s Eve. Most of Texas Southern’s games have gone unlined, outside of matchups with Washington State and Mississippi State in which it failed to cover as a double-digit dog.

The next stop on the Tigers’ whirlwind tour is the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, New York on Dec. 27. Mike Davis’ squad has had 10 days to prep for the Orange but have to make a more than 1,600-mile trip to upstate New York, just a couple days after Christmas. Two days later, Texas Southern is back in the Lone Star State playing Baylor in Waco.

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Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 12/22

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 12/22

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