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**Udog** · 11-12-2015, 10:10 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder, with Week 10 upon us.........

-- Lions covered once in their last eleven games.

-- Cowboys covered eight of last eleven road games.

-- Steelers are 9-2-2 vs spread in their last 13 games.

-- Denver is 18-8 vs spread in its last 26 home games.

-- Minnesota covered 12 of last 15 non-divisional games.

-- Arizona covered 14 of its last 20 road games.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud........

13) Today is November 12; from now until late February, I don't want to see any news about guys on the A's or on my fantasy league team-- at this time of year, news is 95% likely to be bad news. This time, it is Jose Reyes, SS on my fantasy team who was arrested for domestic violence in Hawai'i on Halloween.

Not only is he hideously overpaid and not enthusiastic about playing for the Rockies, now he is likely to be suspended, since this is the first DV case for the new commish, so he has to come down hard on Reyes, or the media will go nuts. Awesome.

12) Guy in Las Vegas bet $20K on a 4-team parlay last week, which is scary in itself; he hit the first three games, fourth was over on the Giants-Bucs game. Looked like he was going to lose until Tampa Bay botched the lateral play as time expired, and the Giants scored a TD to win 32-18, with the game miraculously going over, giving the bettor an $80K windfall for his 4-team parlay. Good day to be him.

Couple years ago, I'm watching NFL games in the theater at Westgate and I'm talking to a guy in a Cardinals' jersey; all of a sudden it dawns on me this guy is betting $6K a game-- I forget that Las Vegas is the big leagues and I'm a guppy in that pond.

11) Underrated story of last few weeks: how Landry Jones has been so much better than Michael Vick as Pittsburgh's backup QB, winning in relief in games against the Cardinals/Raiders. Vick is washed up; he admitted he didn't prepare enough for games LY when he was with the Jets. How is he still collecting a check?

10) 24-year guy from Pennsylvania won Main Event at the World Series of Poker and cashed in for $7.68M; seven of last eight Main Event winners were 24 years old or younger, the 8th guy was 27 when he won. Poker has become a young man's game.

9) Chargers really needed their bye week; in Week 8 at Baltimore, four different guys played left tackle- thats the position that protects Philip Rivers' blind side, so it is a really important position to be solid at. Hopefully they'll get healthier this week.

8) Saw one of my favorite movies the other night; Airplane 2, which I hadn't seen in long time, but damn its funny. Pat Sajak is in it as an anchorman from Buffalo- its been so long since I saw the movie, I didn't even know who he was the last time I saw it.

William Shatner-Lloyd Bridges-Chuck Connors-guy who played General Burkhalter on Hogan's Heroes-Peter Graves-Chad Everett. Lot of the humor is goofy, and 1982 is a long time ago, but I laughed thru just about the whole movie. Good stuff.

7) Minnesota Twins gave up on OF prospect Aaron Hicks, dealing him to Bronx for catcher John Paul Murphy; there are rumors that Brett Gardner is going to get flipped for a pitcher, maybe James Paxton from Seattle.

6) Sacramento Kings are in chaos, as usual; DeMarcus Cousins cursed out George Karl after a recent game (again); GM Vlade Divac didn't back Karl, so it looks like the Kings will be changing coaches once again. I swear to God, if they put me in charge of this damn franchise, I could do better than these nitwits and I'm not qualified to do it, but neither are the fools that own this team.

5) Kevin Durant (hamstring) is out for the next 7-10 days. Last year, Thunder was 27-28 when Durant was out-- Scott Brooks did well to keep the squad together. Now Billy Donovan will find out the cruddy part of NBA coaching; winning without stars in the NBA is really tough.

4) Speaking of Brooks and Tom Thibodeau, how are these ex-coaches not on TV? It would be educational to hear what they think about NBA-related issues. NBA games on local TV are not exactly overloaded with analysts who teach you stuff.

3) Yoenis Cespedes likes cars. A lot. He just paid $367K for a Lamborghini.

2) Utah State lost one of its best players yesterday; soph forward David Collette quit the team and will transfer. Going to be interesting to see where he goes, because that team will be (rightfully) accused of poaching another school's player, which is now an unfortunate trend in college basketball.

1) St John's might have a really bad basketball season; freshman PG Marcus LoVett has been declared ineligible for this year-- he can practice but not play in games. Red Storm lost an exhibition game by 32 to a D-II team and now this; they lost all five starters from LY, are in a total rebuild-- losing your PG is damaging.

**Udog** · 11-12-2015, 10:15 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, November 12

Utah @ Miami

Game 501-502
November 12, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
121.919
Miami
124.444
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 2 1/2
177
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 5
182 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+5); Under

Golden State @ Minnesota

Game 503-504
November 12, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
127.586
Minnesota
121.909
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 5 1/2
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 8 1/2
210
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+8 1/2); Under

LA Clippers @ Phoenix

Game 505-506
November 12, 2015 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
125.624
Phoenix
120.198
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 5 1/2
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 2 1/2
209
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-2 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 12

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UTAH (4 - 3) at MIAMI (5 - 3) - 11/12/2015, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 50-37 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 49-88 ATS (-47.8 Units) in home games in November games since 1996.
MIAMI is 114-149 ATS (-49.9 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (9 - 0) at MINNESOTA (4 - 3) - 11/12/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 69-98 ATS (-38.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 63-45 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-39 ATS (+15.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-3 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 6-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (5 - 3) at PHOENIX (3 - 4) - 11/12/2015, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 228-284 ATS (-84.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 203-256 ATS (-78.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
PHOENIX is 97-70 ATS (+20.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 45-24 ATS (+18.6 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 57-39 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 8-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, November 12

Hot teams
-- Jazz won four of last six games (5-1 vs spread). Miami won three of last four (4-1 HF).
-- Golden State won its first nine games (3-1 AF).

Cold teams
-- Minnesota is 0-3 at home, losing by 5-12-9; road team covered all seven of their games so far.
-- Clippers, Suns both lost three of their last four games.

Series records
-- Jazz is 6-4 in their last ten games against Miami.
-- Warriors won nine of last ten games with Minnesota; Wolves covered last three.
-- Clippers won their last eight games with Phoenix.

Totals
-- Last seven Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Warriors' last three games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last six Phoenix games stayed under total.

NBA

Thursday, November 12

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
UTAH vs. MIAMI
Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Utah
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

8:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. MINNESOTA
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games
Minnesota is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Golden State

10:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. PHOENIX
LA Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of the LA Clippers last 16 games
Phoenix is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Phoenix's last 16 games at home

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**Udog** · 11-12-2015, 11:15 AM

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, November 12

Utah at Miami, 7:35 ET
Utah: 13-3 ATS after allowing 105 points or more
Miami: 9-23 ATS in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite

Golden State at Minnesota, 8:05 ET
Golden State: 21-10 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite
Minnesota: 30-53 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12

LA Clippers at Phoenix, 10:35 ET
Los Angeles: 31-51 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Phoenix: 27-14 ATS after playing a road game

**Udog** · 11-12-2015, 01:26 PM

NBA

Thursday, November 12

Visitors cashing at over 62 percent ATS to start NBA season

We are just a little over three weeks into the 2015-16 NBA season and one of the hottest betting trends in the league has been backing the visiting team.

Entering Thursday's games, road teams have gone 76-46-1 against the spread, cashing in at a rate of over 62 percent. More specifically, road dogs have gone 49-30 ATS (62.03 percent) while away favorites have posted a record of 27-16-1 ATS (62.79 percent).

The early-season betting trend was front and center in a jam-packed Wednesday schedule that saw visiting teams go 9-2 ATS while road underdogs went an unblemished 6-0 ATS.

The three best road bets so far this season are the New York Knicks (5-0 ATS, 3-2 straight up), Atlanta Hawks (3-0-1 ATS, 4-0 SU) and Minnesota Timberwolves (4-0 ATS, 4-0 SU).

Thursday's schedule sees the Utah Jazz (+5) at the Miami Heat, the Golden State Warriors (-9) at the Wolves and the Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5) visiting the Phoenix Suns.

Durant out 7-10 days, or 'until ready'

All-Star forward Kevin Durant will be out at least seven to 10 days with a left hamstring strain.

At that point, the team said Durant's hamstring will be re-evaluated. An MRI on Wednesday morning showed the strain.

The 2014 NBA Most Valuable Player was injured on a drive to the basket in the second quarter of the Thunder's 125-101 win over the Washington Wizards on Tuesday night. He was fouled and grabbed his left leg after landing on the floor.

"After that foul, I came down a little awkward and landed on it a little harder than I wanted to, and it pulled," Durant said afterward.

In eight games this season, Durant is averaging 28.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists. He was limited to 27 games last season because of three surgeries on his right foot.

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/12

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/12

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