Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/2

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Monday, November 2

Good Luck on day #306 of 2015!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
six most popular picks in Week 8 season record: 25-22-2

6) Steelers even (462)-- Big Ben returns against the unbeaten Bengals- L.

5) Broncos +3 (470)-- Battle of unbeatens, both coming off of byes- W.

4) Bears +1.5 (499)- Vikings lost their last seven visits to Windy City- L.

3) Packers -3 (511). Lot of opinions both ways on this game- L.

2) Jets -2.5 (530)-- Jets will miss center Mangold if he can't go here- L.

1) Cardinals -5 (538)-- Arizona's last game before its bye week- W.

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday.....

13) Saints 52, Giants 49 OT-- Drew Brees threw for seven TDs; he had 300 passing yards......at halftime, 511 for the game. Weird stat: Giants scored 42 points but were only 1 for 8 on third down- they scored 21 straight points in 4th quarter to take lead, but Saints scored 10 points in last 0:36. Game swung on facemask penalty on Giants punter Wing that set up game-winning FG.

12) Chiefs 45, Lions 10-- Why did I get up at 9:29am to watch a Jim Caldwell team get pummeled? Chiefs were 8-13 on third down, ran for 206 yards. Not sure why the Lions fired three coaches before the London trip, when they have a bye week now?

11) Vikings 23, Bears 20-- Minnesota had lost seven in a row in Chicago, but they scored 10 points in last 1:49 for win, with rookie WR Diggs catching 40-yard TD that tied game in dramatic fashion. Last four Chicago tilts were decided by 3 or less points.

10) Bucs 23, Falcons 20 OT-- FOX analyst Charles Davis defended Lovie Smith's choice to go for it on his own 39 on 4th-and-1 with 2:00 left and a 20-13 lead- when the Bucs failed, Falcons had short field and tied game. Whole thing became moot when Tampa won in OT, but Smith made a foolish decision and got away with it.

9) Rams 27, 49ers 6-- Rookie RB Gurley is the real deal; rest of the Rams' offense is a work in progress- their defense is stellar, which is why Rams are 4-3. St Louis offense had two TDs of 60+ yards in this game, first time they've done that since 1961. Refs in this game think people paid to watch them throw flags-- too many cheap penalties.

8) Cardinals 34, Browns 20-- Arizona scored last 27 points of this game; they head into their bye at 6-2; they were -3 in turnovers in both losses. Cleveland has now lost five of its last six games-- seven of their eight games have gone went over total. NFC teams are now 18-13 against the AFC so far this season.

7) Royals 7, Mets 2 (12)-- I have no problem with Mets leaving Harvey in for ninth inning; he was mowing the Royals down. You can make the right decision and have it turn out the wrong way. Thats what makes coaching/managing such a challenging and interesting profession. Everyone's a freakin' genius the next day.

6) Bengals 16, Steelers 10-- Big Ben had Steelers in red zone at end of game but 7-0 Bengals held on for the win, in game where teams were combined 7-26 on 3rd down- each team had ten penalties. Last six Pittsburgh games stayed under total. While I am here, the Steelers' throwback uniforms are simply awful, like old prison garb.

5) Ravens 29, Chargers 26-- San Diego's defense/special teams aren't doing much to help the offense; 53 of Chargers' last 66 drives started 80+ yards from goal line; in last six games, San Diego started one drive in opponent territory- the foes started 12 drives in Charger territory. Hard to win that way.

4) Texans 20, Titans 6-- Captain Obvious checked in to inform us that the NFL has a shortage of quality QBs; rookies are starting right out of college now, which makes it a sink or swim situation, rather than a developmental one. Titans have 36 points in four post-bye games, after losing 35-33 to Colts in their pre-bye game- they're 2-20 in last 22 games overall, since upsetting Chiefs on Opening Day, 2014. .

3) Raiders 34, Jets 20-- Fitzpatrick hurt his left thumb early in game; Deion Sanders had the onions to criticize him for coming out, since it wasn't his throwing hand. Guy has torn ligaments in the thumb-- Deion is stealing $$$ on TV. Jets are screwed now; Geno Smith also got banged up but he sucks anyway, so they need to find a QB out on the street who can help them, if Fitzpatrick needs surgery. Good luck there.

2) Seahawks 13, Cowboys 12-- Dallas is 0-5 without Romo but dammit, they're still on national TV each and every week. Both teams were futile in red zone; five FGs on five red zone drives. Observation: Russell Wilson got tossed out of bounds by #90 on Dallas, a clean hit but a hard one- no Seahawks ran over to help him. Hmmm.....

1) Broncos 29, Packers 10-- Green Bay was in wrong place at wrong time, on a night where Denver honored their beloved owner. Broncos are now 7-0 with Manning going back to Indianapolis next week. Packers are OK, as long as Matthews' injury isn't too bad- they go to Carolina next week.

[Udog]

Alabama sent out as 6.5-point home fave versus LSU in Week 10

LSU has gone 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread in the previous four meetings with the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Alabama has been in the national championship hunt regularly the past several years, and was one of the four teams to make the Football Bowl Subdivision’s first-ever playoff last season. Louisiana State would like to climb back into the national title picture this year.

But to do that, the Tigers are going to have to go through ‘Bama on Saturday, in a key Southeastern Conference game that highlights Week 10 of the college football season.

LSU (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) has ridden breakout running back Leonard Fournette to an unbeaten mark and comes to Tuscaloosa off a bye week. The Tigers rolled past Western Kentucky 48-20 laying 16 points at home on Oct. 24.

The Crimson Tide (7-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) are also coming off a bye week and are among the best one-loss teams in the country, so they remain in the hunt for the four-team playoff again. Alabama held off Tennessee 19-14 on Oct. 24, falling well short as a 14.5-point home favorite.

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, sent Alabama out as a 6.5-point favorite.

“This one may decide which of these two reach the four-team playoff,” Avello said. “LSU hasn’t won this matchup since 2011, and traditionally, this pair is hard-pressed to reach 40 points. Alabama will open somewhere around a touchdown favorite.”


Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers

Clemson (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) continues to lead the pack in the Atlantic Coast Conference after topping North Carolina State 56-41 on Saturday as a 13.5-point road fave. That came a week after the Tigers drubbed host Miami 58-0 giving 9.5 points.

But the Seminoles, who won the 2013 national title and made the four-team playoff last year, will certainly be Clemson’s toughest test. Florida State (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) stubbed its toe at Georgia Tech in a 22-16 loss laying 5.5 points, but bounced back Saturday to rip Syracuse 45-21 as a 16.5-point home fave. And the ‘Noles won without starting quarterback Everett Golson (concussion) and starting running back Dalvin Cook (ankle).

With the status of both those players uncertain, Avello had to hold off on the opening line, but he’s wary of the banged-up Seminoles.

“You better be at full strength when you play the surging Clemson Tigers, and Florida State has huge question marks with Golson and Cook,” Avello said. “Clemson QB Deshaun Watson and the entire offensive unit has put on a clinic over the past two weeks, and the Tigers are looking to show who is this year’s top dog in the ACC Atlantic Division, after losing to the Seminoles the past three years.”


Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-3.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys

If a Big 12 team is going to make the four-team playoff, this game could have a lot to do with it. Texas Christian (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS), certainly still smarting from missing the playoff last year, wiped out West Virginia 40-10 last Thursday giving a dozen points at home.

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is a bit of a shocker to still be in this position, unbeaten at 8-0 SU (5-3 ATS). It looked as if the Cowboys would suffer their first loss on Saturday at Texas Tech, where they trailed 17-0 in the first quarter and didn’t lead until late in the third quarter, when they went up 42-38. But a 28-point fourth gave them a 70-53 win laying 2 points.

“Oklahoma State showed some fight after being down 24-7 and rallied back to win by 17,” Avello said. “From the beginning of the season, I thought the Cowboys would be successful, but I didn’t think they would be 8-0 at this juncture. One would assume they will be highly motivated to go 9-0 after last year’s 42-9 loss at TCU.”


Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-8) at Pittsburgh Panthers

The Fighting Irish (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) are among the one-loss teams hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they nearly blew it as 11-point faves Saturday night at Temple. Notre Dame needed a late touchdown to salvage a 24-20 victory.

Pitt (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) had surged into the national rankings after a four-game win streak – including three on the road – but fell flat as a 1-point home underdog in a 26-19 loss to North Carolina last Thursday.

“Pitt didn’t play Notre Dame last year, after playing the Irish from 2008 to 2013,” Avello said. “The Panthers went 3-3 in those six games (4-1-1 ATS), and the three losses were by a combined total of 12 points. These two schools have a history of great battles.”

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, November 2


Cleveland @ Philadelphia

Game 501-502
November 2, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
122.001
Philadelphia
112.129
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 10
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 13
195
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+13); Over

San Antonio @ New York

Game 503-504
November 2, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
126.664
New York
116.272
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 10 1/2
196
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 7
204
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-7); Under

Milwaukee @ Brooklyn

Game 505-506
November 2, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
112.086
Brooklyn
115.597
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brooklyn
by 3 1/2
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brooklyn
by 1
197
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(-1); Over

Oklahoma City @ Houston

Game 507-508
November 2, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
123.223
Houston
118.349
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 5
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 1
215
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-1); Under

Portland @ Minnesota

Game 509-510
November 2, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
110.551
Minnesota
118.635
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 8
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 5 1/2
202
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-5 1/2); Over

Memphis @ Golden State

Game 511-512
November 2, 2015 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
118.740
Golden State
139.618
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 21
198
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 9
201
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-9); Under

Phoenix @ LA Clippers

Game 513-514
November 2, 2015 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
115.843
LA Clippers
128.750
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 13
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 9
211 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-9); Over

[Udog]

NBA

Monday, November 2

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PHILADELPHIA
Cleveland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games

7:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New York's last 9 games when playing at home against San Antonio
New York is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio

7:30 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. BROOKLYN
Milwaukee is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Milwaukee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 4-17-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Milwaukee
Brooklyn is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee

8:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. HOUSTON
Oklahoma City is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Houston
Oklahoma City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games when playing Oklahoma City
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

8:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
Portland is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Minnesota's last 20 games when playing Portland
Minnesota is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Portland

10:30 PM
MEMPHIS vs. GOLDEN STATE
Memphis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 11 games at home
Golden State is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home

10:30 PM
PHOENIX vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Phoenix's last 18 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of the LA Clippers last 11 games


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[Udog]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, November 2

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CLEVELAND (2 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 2) - 11/2/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 91-134 ATS (-56.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 5-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 5-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (2 - 1) at NEW YORK (2 - 1) - 11/2/2015, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 907-791 ATS (+36.9 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 717-609 ATS (+47.1 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 303-241 ATS (+37.9 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 41-26 ATS (+12.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 33-50 ATS (-22.0 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 2-2 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (0 - 3) at BROOKLYN (0 - 3) - 11/2/2015, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 118-86 ATS (+23.4 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 137-102 ATS (+24.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 3-3 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 4-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (3 - 0) at HOUSTON (0 - 3) - 11/2/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 58-43 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-3 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (1 - 2) at MINNESOTA (2 - 0) - 11/2/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 4-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 5-3 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (2 - 1) at GOLDEN STATE (3 - 0) - 11/2/2015, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 60-42 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-19 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 144-106 ATS (+27.4 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-6 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 8-5 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (2 - 1) at LA CLIPPERS (3 - 0) - 11/2/2015, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 52-28 ATS (+21.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 43-22 ATS (+18.8 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 228-281 ATS (-81.1 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[clubgowi]

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves – Portland Trailblazers

Recommendation: OVER 203

Odds: 1.925

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Rejuvenated Minny welcomes Portland in Traget Center tonight. I guess Wolves will get a close win and send their fans home happy with a stunning 3-0 start (well, they didn’t meet quite an opposition really). Anyway I much more like OVER here, it’s way ‘’surer’’ call in my humble opinion.

Minnesota showed decent game overall so far, bad opponents or not. They will hardly reach the play-offs of course, too weak defense, but at least offense is running and clicking under fresh Ricky Rubio distribution skills. Their Nr. 1 Draft pick, Karl-Anthony Towns, also showed a lot of promise with a fine display against Denver, shooting 11 from 19 for 28 points and adding 14 rebounds and 4 blocks to his tally!

Portland is a team in transition, I doubt anyone on the upper management levels or among the players believe they have what it takes to reach the play-offs this season, after dumping 4 starters from last year line-up. At least though Damian Lillard is the undisputed franchise player now and he seems delighted with his role on the rebuilding team. C.J. McCollum is a very nice compliment to Lillard in the backcourt too, this young fella definitely can score the ball and I envision bright future ahead of him too.

So what we have, 2 teams with clearly offensive mindsets (and personnel allowance) and total line of 203? Win or lose, I buy that, thank you very much, Vegas!

[Udog]

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves – Portland Trailblazers

Recommendation: OVER 203

clubgowi,

Thanks for throwing these in! Good stuff! I know this one won last night. Didn't the first one you posted win, too?