Tuesday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 9/22

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Tuesday, September 22

Good Luck on day #265 of 2015!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- New Dallas QB Brandon Weeden will be 32 next month; he is 5-16 as a starter in the NFL, with 15 of those 21 starts coming for the 2012 Browns.
-- Jay Cutler (hamstring) is out the next couple weeks; Jimmy Clausen takes over.
-- Pirates are 29-38 vs NFC Central teams, 61-22 against everyone else.
-- Last 2+ years, Colts are 12-0 in divisional games, 10-12 outside the division.
-- Just last week, fantasy football sites Draft Kings/Fan Duel spent a combined $30M on advertising.
-- Charles Barkley gave a touching eulogy of Moses Malone last week.
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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) Jets 20, Colts 7-- Jets are 2-0, Indy 0-2, scoring only 21 points in its first two games, eight less than anyone else in the NFL.

12) Only three of 49 Super Bowl champs started that season 0-2.

11) NFL football is hideously over-officiated; 13 of 32 teams this week had 10+ accepted penalties. Too many rules, too many flags, too many stoppages in games.

By way of contrast, the Auburn-LSU game had a combined total of nine penalties, Clemson-Louisville had eight, Stanford-USC 13. College games have a better flow.

10) Ryan Fitzpatrick is the first NFL QB ever to play against the same team (Colts) four years in a row, while playing for four different teams. Mike Martz was the first NFL coach to give Fitzpatrick a chance and that was in 2005. Not many QBs in the NFL go to college without a football scholarship; Fitzpatrick went to Harvard.

9) Speaking of Harvard, the Milwaukee Brewers hired another 30-year old genius to be their GM. I don't remember ever seeing Harvard in the College World Series, but they must have an awesome baseball program, since major league teams are so eager to hire their alums to run their operations.

No way 30-year olds are experienced enough for this big job, but hey, they have those complicated formulas that explain everything; just ask San Diego Padre fans.

8) Watched a movie called Game Change Monday afternoon, because people with no job watch a lot of movies. This was the movie about Sarah Palin running for VP with John McCain in 2012-- it is alternating hilarious and frightening.

How could someone as oblivious as Palin come so close to being Vice-President?

7) Chase Utley played in his 1,575th big league game last night, starting at third base for the first time ever. For a playoff team, the Dodgers have a lot of questions they'll need to answer before their first postseason game.

6) NASCAR driver Denny Hamlin won the race in Chicago this week, which wouldn't be such a big deal, except he is driving with a torn right ACL. I cannot even imagine tearing my ACL, then getting in my car and driving 500 miles, much less at the high stress level at which those guys compete.

5) Run differential is a stupid stat that gets overused; Texas has a -7 differential, the A's are -11, virtually the same. But the Rangers are 16.5 games ahead of Oakland, due to their 43-32 record in games decided by 1-2 runs. A's are 27-49 in those games.

4) ESPN's Lee Corso turned 80 last month; he is still a pleasure to listen to on TV.

3) Astros 6, Angels 3-- Huge win for Houston, which now has a 3-game lead for the second Wild Card spot.

2) Thru two weeks, NFL home underdogs are 7-5 vs spread
-- NFL home favorites of 6+ points are 2-5-1 vs spread.
-- NFL home favorites of less than 6 points are 14-9 vs spread.

1) Further proof the world is going crazy: a guy named Joe Juranitch has dressed up as the Viking at Minnesota home games for the last 21 years; he led the team out on the field while driving a motorcycle, wearing a horned helmet and fur clothes.

Mr Juranitch is no longer employed by the Vikings, because he wanted the team to give him a 10-year contract paying him $20,000 a game. To be a bleeping mascot.

This guy was making $1,500 a game (10 home games a year) but wasn't happy. Oy.

[Udog]

NFL Opening Line Report: Oddsmakers debate Romo's worth to Dallas' odds

Tony Romo's injury has books debating what the line should be for the Cowboys' Week 3 matchup with the Falcons this coming Sunday.

After a solid 2014 season that culminated in a playoff appearance, the Dallas Cowboys had to make a tough decision: pay Dez Bryant or pay DeMarco Murray. They paid Bryant, and Murray left for greener pastures in Philadelphia.

Then Dez Bryant went down with a broken foot in Week 1 against the New York Giants. The Cowboys hope he’ll only miss four to six weeks. And on Sunday in Week 2 at Philadelphia, quarterback Tony Romo suffered a broken left clavicle – the same injury he suffered in 2010 – and is expected to miss eight to 10 weeks.

About the only good news for the Cowboys? Well, they’re 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS), with both wins over NFC East rivals. Dallas topped Philadelphia 20-10 as a 7-point road underdog, a week after edging the Giants 27-26 as a 7-point home favorite.

Now, the Cowboys return home to face Atlanta (2-0 SU and ATS), which is also off to a solid start after its paltry 6-8 SU and 7-9 ATS campaign in 2014. On Sunday, the Falcons put up two fourth-quarter touchdowns – the second with just over a minute left – to nab a 24-20 victory as 2-point road underdog against the Giants.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, said the opening line on this game would have to wait a bit.

“We’re going to have to take some time here, considering everything that’s happened to Dallas personnel-wise,” Lester said. “Had Romo still been available, we would have opened around -6 for the Cowboys. The Falcons are improved from a year ago, but I don’t think they’re as good as they’ve looked thus far.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, also had to sit tight on the opening number.

“It’s a great start to the season for the Falcons, beating two NFC East foes. Strangely enough, those two opponents (Eagles and Giants) are 0-4 between them, as they both also lost to the Cowboys,” Avello said. “With the loss of Tony Romo, the Cowboys would be happy with a 50/50 record from this point on until he returns.”

At offshore market, Sportsbook.ag, they opened Atlanta as a 1.5-point favorite and took immediate action on the Falcons to the point where they pulled the game from the board and consulted some industry experts on the potential pointspread. Those experts came back with a spread of pick'em, however, Sportsbook.ag linesmaker Peter Childs wasn't convinced the game should be that tight.

He reopened at Falcons -2.5 and again took one-sided action on Atlanta, forcing a move to three. Once at a field goal, Dallas bets started rolling in as well as sharp action on the Cowboys which dropped the line back down to Atlanta -2.5, which is were the book sits as of Monday morning. Childs says his biggest concern is how the Dallas offense struggled with backup QB Brandon Weeden under center, with Romo out with a back injury, against the Arizona Cardinals last season.

"The Cowboys were competitive early, but eventually the Cardinals shutdown Weeden and the Cowboys offense and got the easy win and cover," Childs recalled. "We lost a fortune on that game, so we knew that our customers were going to fade Weeden in this spot and all early indications are exactly that - fade Weeden. And last year for the Cowboys, they had Dez and Murray, who won’t be on the field come Sunday versus the Falcons. Interesting game, I do believe the Cowboys will be competitive but I also believe the Falcons should be a slight favorite."

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

Kansas City was in the primetime spotlight in Week 2, when the Chiefs were dealt a stunning 31-24 home loss after Denver scored two touchdowns in the final 40 seconds – the second on a shocking fumble return. So instead of hashing things out in overtime, K.C. stumbled as a 3-point favorite Thursday night.

With the exception of the extra three days’ rest, the Week 3 schedule doesn’t do the Chiefs (1-1 SU and ATS) any favors, as they are once again in primetime, but this time at Green Bay on Monday night.

The Packers (2-0 SU and ATS) are coming off a rematch of the NFC Championship Game, avenging their loss last January by beating Seattle 27-17 as a 3.5-point home favorite. With that being the Sunday night game, and some injuries on the Packers, the opening line isn’t set just yet.

“Going into Sunday night, we would have made the Packers between six and 7-point favorites for this one,” Lester said. “It’s a long layoff for the Chiefs, which I don’t think is a good thing considering how deflating their Week 2 loss was. They’ve got to be eager to get back on the field, but they’re in a holding pattern.”

Said Avello, “Another primetime spot for the Packers, but they are quite used to it now, and the Chiefs also get their second in a row after playing last Thursday. I believe playing these games in front of a large TV audience helps motivate a team to play its best. The Chiefs let one get away against Denver, but they're good enough to bounce back and play head-to-head with the Pack.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Baltimore (0-2 SU and ATS) finally gets a home game after two long weeks on the road. The Ravens were dealt a tough loss at Denver in Week 1, falling 19-13 in a game they arguably should have won, then went to Oakland as a 6-point favorite and lost 37-33 on a last-minute Raiders touchdown.

Cincinnati (2-0 SU and ATS) has gotten out of the gate quickly with a pair of wins and covers. On Sunday, the Bengals fended off San Diego 24-19 as a 3.5-point home fave.

Avello opened Baltimore at -3.

“The Ravens have lost three straight to the Bengals, and this is no time to extend it,” he said. “There are no must-wins this early in the season, but it sure would be a very difficult road back after falling behind the division leader by three games right from jump street.”

Lester’s opening number was a shade tighter at Ravens -2.5.

“We’ll have a lot of players eager to back the Bengals, but that’s what we’re counting on with this number,” Lester said. “I fully anticipate Baltimore putting forth a great effort in this matchup, as the Ravens obviously can’t afford to start the season 0-3. John Harbaugh will have his guys ready to play.”

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

Arizona (2-0 SU and ATS) is looking stout in the early going, entering this NFC West clash after thumping Chicago 48-23 as a 2-point road chalk Sunday.

On the flip side, San Fran is coming off a blowout loss. The Niners were dealt a 43-18 shellacking Sunday catching 6 points at Pittsburgh.

“It’s a tale of two teams from the opener to Week 2 regarding San Francisco,” Lester said. “The Niners aren’t as bad as they looked at Pittsburgh, but this is a very difficult spot for them. Arizona has been dominant at home over the last couple of years, so we felt comfortable putting up this number. I expect it to bounce around between 6 and 7 all week, and we’ll probably get solid split action.”

Avello went slightly tighter on the line, with the Cards at -6.

“The Niners have had the Cards’ number, winning five of the last six and eight of the last 10,” he said. “That's because the 49ers were good and the Cardinals weren't. Well, a change in the guard has certainly occurred.

“Arizona was never an easy place to get a win, but the Cardinals’ home-field advantage is stronger now than ever, and that 13-3 record over the past two-plus years demonstrates that.”

[Udog]

WNBA

Tuesday, September 22

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NEW YORK
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 15 games
New York is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
New York is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Washington

8:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. MINNESOTA
Los Angeles is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Los Angeles is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Minnesota is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Los Angeles


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[Udog]

WNBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, September 22


Washington @ New York

Game 621-622
September 22, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
111.560
New York
112.972
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New York
by 1 1/2
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New York
by 6 1/2
141
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+6 1/2); Over

Los Angeles @ Minnesota

Game 623-624
September 22, 2015 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
111.364
Minnesota
112.726
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 5 1/2
145 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+5 1/2); Over




WNBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, September 22

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WASHINGTON (19 - 17) at NEW YORK (24 - 12) - 9/22/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 278-334 ATS (-89.4 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 42-67 ATS (-31.7 Units) in road games in August or September games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 175-220 ATS (-67.0 Units) vs. division opponents since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 16-27 ATS (-13.7 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) after a division game this season.
NEW YORK is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
NEW YORK is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 8-7 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 8-7 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOS ANGELES (15 - 21) at MINNESOTA (23 - 13) - 9/22/2015, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 44-64 ATS (-26.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 80-109 ATS (-39.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 153-193 ATS (-59.3 Units) after scoring 75 points or more since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in August or September games this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) after a division game this season.
MINNESOTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 8-7 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 9-6 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
11 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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