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**Udog** · 07-10-2015, 08:26 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

What college football expert Phil Steele thinks about the ACC Atlantic Division

7) Wake Forest-- Have only six seniors on whole squad, their least since WWII.

6) Syracuse-- My man Les Miles brings LSU to the Carrier Dome Sept 26.

5) Boston College-- Lost to Clemson/Florida State LY by total of seven points.

4) NC State-- Have 15 starters back this year, including a senior QB.

3) Louisville-- Petrino returns to Georgia Dome, plays Auburn in opener.

2) Clemson-- New OC, lost 29 lettermen but have QB and top four rushers back.

1) Florida State-- Went 13-1 LY, 3-11 vs spread; who will the QB be?

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here......

13) RIP Kenny Stabler, the great Oakland QB who died this week at age 69.

Stabler came into the NFL when QB's sat and learned before they started; he became the Oakland starter in 1973, his 4th NFL season, but once he started, all he did was win-- he was 69-26-1 with the Raiders, winning Super Bowl XXI. He also played for the Saints/Oilers, but will be forever remembered as John Madden's quarterback.

12) Baxter Holmes of ESPN.com wrote an article about why NBA players get hurt so much; it is interesting reading. Four reasons why basketball players get hurt a lot:

-- Worse sleeping habits-- According to a sleep expert, the "blue light" that is emitted from televisions, computer screens, tablets and smartphones suppresses the body's attempt to produce melatonin, a hormone that helps induce sleep.

-- Weaker bones-- Washington Post reports that Americans on average drank 37 percent less milk in 2014 than in 1970. Milk helps stengthen bones. Instead of milk, people are drinking more sugary drinks and that ain't good for your bones.

-- More wear and tear at a young age-- This one is simple; really good players now play too many games. AAU, summer league then the regular season. In AAU, a team might play three games in one day and it takes its toll over time.

-- Weaker muscles-- Less traditional weight training now and more "functional training" which focuses on the body's core and flexibility. Less weight training equals weaker muscles, which can cause more injuries.

11) Utah Jazz hosted a 3-night summer league this week that averaged over 10,000 fans a night for a doubleheader of games. Thats a lot of people for summer league.

10) Luke Ridnour got traded four times in a week, then Toronto released him Thursday; it is enough to make a guy change careers.

9) Jeremy Lin signs with Charlotte for two years, $4M; Hornets will be his fifth NBA team in his six years in the league.

8) My final take on the DeAndre Jordan fiasco: He is entitled to play anywhere he wants to, but he should've called Mark Cuban and explained things- it is how adults do business and the NBA is big business.

As for Dallas, they're probably better off without him.

7) How are Johnny Cueto/Clayton Kershaw not All-Stars? Anyone? Game is in Cincinnati; Cueto should be on the NL team.

6) As for the Home Run Derby, it is stupid that Yoenis Cespedes isn't there to defend the title he won the last two years. HR Derby shouldn't just be guys who make the All-Star team, they should be for the best home run hitters.

5) Huston Street hurt his leg, which cripples the Angels' bullpen, so the All-Star break may be coming just in time for Mike Scioscia.

4) If you wagered on the Atlanta-Colorado game last night, you should've checked the weather first. Colorado starter Kendrick threw a scoreless first inning with eight pitches thrown, then the rains came after Alex Wood threw two pitches in the bottom of the first, resulting in a two-hour rain delay.

Neither pitcher continued after the delay but since both pitchers threw a pitch, you were stuck with your bet, a game struggling Colorado won 5-3.

3) I got some e-mails yesterday telling me that David Ortiz playing 1B for Boston was more about Mike Napoli's struggles than Hanley Ramirez' defense. Brock Holt is a supersub, but can only sub at one position a day and 2B Pedroia is hurt.

2) Royals lose Alex Gordon for eight weeks with a muscle tear; Mets lose young pitcher Stephen Matz with a lat problem- thats at least a three-week deal.

1) I'm looking forward to seeing AAU basketball later this month in Las Vegas; the Fab 48 tournament and an adidas tournament. We'll have writeups on the games and kids we see as basketball recruiting season hits its summer peak.

**Udog** · 07-10-2015, 08:26 AM

AAC college football betting preview: Cincy pegged as fave with big season on the horizon

The American Athletic Conference goes through another shakeup in its third season as Navy joins the mix to increase the membership to 12 teams. Cincinnati is the fave to win the conference, but with Memphis, Temple and UCF in the fold, there is value in the AAC.

Steve Merril looks at all 12 AAC teams and give season win total picks for each heading into the 2015 campaign.

Central Florida Knights (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +700
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Knights: Central Florida has dominated conference opponents by going an impressive 15-1 over the last two seasons. The Knights have won back-to-back conference championships, and they’ll be in contention once again this season. Quarterback Justin Holman returns for his junior season after throwing for 2,952 yards with 23 touchdowns in 2014.

Why not bet the Knights: Despite Central Florida’s recent league domination, they have new coordinators on both sides of the ball. They also lost their top four wide receivers and all four of their starting defensive backs. Overall, Central Florida has the fewest returning starters (9) in the American Athletic Conference, so inexperience could be their undoing in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Cincinnati Bearcats (2014: 9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +260
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Bearcats: Cincinnati is poised for a big season in 2015. The Bearcats’ offense is loaded, and they return eight starters from last year’s team that averaged 34 points per game. Quarterback Gunner Kiel returns after throwing for 3,254 yards and a school record 31 touchdown passes in 2014.

Why not bet the Bearcats: Defense. Cincinnati’s stop unit regressed last season, allowing 27.2 points and 439 yards per game. They only gave up 21 points and 316 yards per game the season before. They return just five defensive starters this season, so they will need to improve dramatically if they want to win double digit games in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Connecticut Huskies (2014: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +8000
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Huskies: Bob Diaco will begin his second year at Connecticut, so the Huskies should improve some. They return 14 starters, including eight starters on a defense that was better than the season before. Connecticut’s defense could keep them in some games this season, so they could be live when getting a lot of points as an underdog.

Why not bet the Huskies: The offense is a major concern. Connecticut only averaged 15.5 points on 276 yards of total offense per game last season. The quarterback position doesn’t have a lot of experience, so another poor offensive season is quite likely. The road schedule is brutal as well, so there’s not a lot to like about Connecticut heading into the 2015 season.

Season win total pick: Under 3

East Carolina Pirates (2014: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Pirates: East Carolina has a successful program as they’ve made a bowl game in eight of the last nine seasons. The Pirates have won eight games or more in each of the last three years, and they’ll be in contention to extend that streak to four.

Why not bet the Pirates: The Pirates return just eleven starters overall, and they have a new offensive coordinator in Dave Nichol. East Carolina also has to replace a pair of offensive standouts, QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy, so Nichol’s job won’t be easy. Out of conference games at Florida and at BYU don’t help either, so the Pirates have some question marks coming into this season.

Season win total pick: Over 7

South Florida Bulls (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5500
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Bulls: South Florida is in their third season under head coach Willie Taggart, so there’s a chance they could improve upon their 4 wins from a season ago. The Bulls should see defensive improvement, especially since they are switching to a 4-2-5 scheme that fits their personnel well.

Why not bet the Bulls: The team returns just 4 offensive starters, and under Taggart, the Bulls have only averaged 13.8 and 17.2 points per game. Overall, South Florida’s program has been in decline over the last four seasons, and there’s nothing to suggest a reversal of form will be seen in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 4

Temple Owls (2014: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +400
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Owls: Temple returns 19 starters from a team that went 6-6 last season. The Owls have an excellent defense, and they should be the best in the AAC. Temple returns ten starters on a stop unit that only gave up 17.5 points per game last season. With 15 seniors on the two deep, Temple is set to have their best season in quite awhile.

Why not bet the Owls: Temple’s offense needs to get better. The Owls only averaged 308 yards per game last season, and they scored 20 points or less in their last seven games. In conference play, Temple was -69.5 yards per game, and that’s a direct reflection of their poor offense. If the scoring unit fails to improve, Temple will be a .500 team once again.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Houston Cougars (2014: 8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +825
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Cougars: Houston has some things pointing in their direction for a solid 2015 season. The Cougars return quarterback Greg Ward who completed 67.3 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,010 yards and 12 touchdowns in only eight games. Houston’s defense is good as well; the Cougars have given up just 21.8 and 20.6 points per game over their last two seasons.

Why not bet the Cougars: Houston has a whole new coaching staff this season. Head coach Tom Herman comes over from Ohio State where he was the offensive coordinator. Major Applewhite is the new offensive coordinator while Craig Naivar and Todd Orlando will co-coordinate the defense. With new schemes on both sides of the ball, Houston may not play-up to their talent level in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Memphis Tigers (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +350
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Tigers: Justin Fuente and Darrell Dickey’s offensive system exploded last season as Memphis averaged 36.2 points per game. The Tigers should roll along again in 2015 as eight offensive starters return, including QB Paxton Lynch who threw for 3,031 yards with 22 touchdown passes.

Why not bet the Tigers: Memphis came out of nowhere to win 10 games last season, and teams that fit that profile usually regress the following season. The Tigers’ defense was good last year (19.5 ppg), but that unit only returns three starters while losing coordinator Barry Odom to Missouri. Memphis’ season will hinge on their defense, and if they falter, the Tigers will be a .500 team at best.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Navy Midshipmen (2014: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1300
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Midshipmen: Navy runs the triple option offense, and it’s difficult to stop, especially for teams that haven’t seen it before and only have a week to prepare. The Midshipmen are affiliated with a league for the first time in 124 years, and they’ll have a major advantage over their opponents this season as none of them will have a bye prior to playing Navy. Senior QB Keenan Reynolds returns, so the Midshipmen will be a formidable team this season.

Why not bet the Midshipmen: Navy’s defense has been vulnerable to high-scoring, athletic offenses and they’ll face their fair share in the AAC this season. Their late schedule isn’t ideal either as they have to play at Memphis and at Houston in a 20-day span. If the Midshipmen can’t play consistent defense, their promising season will get derailed.

Season win total pick: Over 7

SMU Mustangs (2014: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 2

Why bet the Mustangs: SMU returns 16 starters this season after winning just one game in 2014. There’s nowhere to go but up for the Mustangs, so they should be a much better team this season. New head coach Chad Morris is a proven offensive guru as his Clemson’s offenses averaged 37.3 points per game over the last three years.

Why not bet the Mustangs: The Mustangs were embarrassingly bad on offense last year. They averaged just 11.1 points per game, and their average loss came by 30 points per game overall, and 22 points per game in conference play. New systems take time to develop, and unless SMU’s offense improves dramatically, they’ll finish with a losing record once again in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 2

Tulane Green Wave (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3700
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Green Wave: Tulane is in their fourth season under Curtis Johnson, and they return 16 starters, so there are some positives. The Green Wave will win with their defense, a unit that allowed a respectable 28.4 points and 388 yards per game in 2014. Those numbers aren’t bad considering they only went 3-9 SU last season. If the defense improves some, Tulane can be a sticky underdog this year.

Why not bet the Green Wave: Tulane has serious issues on offense. The unit only averaged 16 points per game last season, and they’ve averaged 347 yards per game or less in all three years under Johnson. The Green Wave scored a total of 16 points in their last three games of the 2014 season. If the offense doesn’t get significantly better, Tulane will be in the basement once again in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 5

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2014: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4000
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Golden Hurricane: Tulsa returns 16 starters in the first year of new head coach Philip Montgomery. He was Baylor’s offensive coordinator for the last three years, so he will implement a similar offense at Tulsa. The offense did average 24.7 points per game in 2014, so they could be even better under Montgomery’s schemes.

Why not bet the Golden Hurricane: The Golden Hurricane come in off a 2-win season, and while there’s nowhere to go but up, the team still lacks much talent. After winning 29 games from 2010-2012, Tulsa is just 5-19 over the last two seasons. It will take time for Montgomery to get the right players to fit his schemes, so 2015 figures to be a rebuilding season for Tulsa.

Season win total pick: Under 5

**Udog** · 07-10-2015, 08:30 AM

WNBA
Long Sheet

Friday, July 10

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SAN ANTONIO (3 - 8) at INDIANA (6 - 6) - 7/10/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-1 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (8 - 2) at CHICAGO (6 - 5) - 7/10/2015, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 53-36 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games against Eastern conference opponents since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) against Western conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (6 - 5) at SEATTLE (3 - 10) - 7/10/2015, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 107-74 ATS (+25.6 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1997.
SEATTLE is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1997.
SEATTLE is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
PHOENIX is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in July games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in July games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 6-4 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 6-4 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Friday, July 10

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. INDIANA
San Antonio is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Indiana is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio

8:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 13 games

10:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. SEATTLE
Phoenix is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Phoenix is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Seattle's last 14 games when playing at home against Phoenix

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**Udog** · 07-10-2015, 10:04 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Friday, July 10

San Antonio @ Indiana

Game 601-602
July 10, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
99.271
Indiana
112.729
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 13 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 7 1/2
153 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(-7 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Chicago

Game 603-604
July 10, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
118.529
Chicago
113.407
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
157
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); Under

Phoenix @ Seattle

Game 605-606
July 10, 2015 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
114.071
Seattle
113.161
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Phoenix
by 1
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Phoenix
by 7 1/2
146
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+7 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 07-10-2015, 01:35 PM

WNBA

Friday, July 10

Storm getting blown-out in a big way

The Seattle Storm have dropped their past three games both straight-up and against the spread, and they have looked bad doing it.

The Storm have lost their past three games by an average of 18.7 points, while twice losing by 23 or more.

Seattle has averaged a mere 68 ppg, which has them more than last in the WNBA by more than three points.

The Storm are currently 7.5-point dogs when they host the Phoenix Mercury.

Books exposed thanks to Lynx' top defense

The Minnesota Lynx are the top under team in the WNBA, thanks in large to their stellar defense. The Lynx have posted an over/under record of 3-7 so far this season.

The Lynx have allowed a mere 67.8 ppg, which has them ranked first in defense. However, the Lynx average closing total has been 151, which means that Minny would need to average 83.2 ppg to top their mean total.

The total for Friday's game between the Lynx and the Chicago Sky is currently 155.5

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Friday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 7/10

Friday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 7/10

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