Wednesday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 6/24

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Wednesday, June 24

Good Luck on day #175 of 2015!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- John Farrell got thrown out in 7th inning last night; Boston's frustration level keeps going up, as losses mount. They sent Rusney Castillo back to AAA.

-- Boston RFs are hitting .203 this season, with two home runs. No bueno.

-- Why would the Padres bat Melvin (BJ) Upton leadoff? He's hitting .154. He'll help their defense in centerfield, but he's an 8th-place hitter.

-- Giants are 9-3 against the Dodgers this season but they've lost nine of their last ten home games overall- they blew a 2-0 lead in 8th inning in last night's loss. .

-- Mets put Travis d'Arnaud on the DL, as their once-promising season gets worse.

-- Tampa Bay's TV announcers claim the Rays have the best up-the-middle defense in baseball; who can argue? The Rays are in first place.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Random mid-week thoughts.......

13) Mikael Franco turned into Ty Cobb this week, going 6-8 with five runs scored and ten RBI in two games in the Bronx. Franco is hitting .319 and is one of the few bright spots in a dismal Philly season.

12) NHL overtimes will be 3-on-3 instead of 4-on-4 next season, as the league tries to reduce the number of games decided in a shootout- there were 170 of them last year.

My hockey friends out there-- let me know what you think of this!!!

11) NHL salary cap will be $71.4M next year; it was $69M this year.

10) Former NBA player Shareef Adbur-Rahim, who now works on CBS Sports Network, said he would take Jahlil Okafor over D'Angelo Russell in the NBA Draft, because Okafor is the more unique talent- he says teams are more likely to find a guy like Russell in future drafts than a bigger player like Okafor. .

9) Minor league baseball is big business; they had 5,858 fans in Peoria last night, for a Midwest League game. School is out; minor leagues are cheap entertainment. In a lot of small towns, minor league baseball is very profitable.

8) Here is one of my all-time favorite movie clips; Steve Martin in Roxanne, at his comic greatest.........

7) You know those Life Alert commercials, where the old lady falls and presses a button so the paramedics can come and help her? Serious question; how do they get in the woman's house if she can't get up?

6) Virginia beat Vanderbilt 3-0, forced a decisive Game 3 tonight- winner-take-all for the College World Series championship.

5) A's manager Bob Melvin was happy the Warriors won the NBA title; he grew up a Golden State fan-- his godfather is Dick D'Oliva, who used to be Warriors' trainer.

4) Sal Alosi is the UCLA strength coach Sean Combs got in a scuffle with earlier this week; he used to work for the Jets, where he made headlines by tripping a Dolphins player who was running downfield to cover a punt. Strange but true.

3) Australian scientists have determined that most kangaroos are left-handed. Just thought you'd like to know.

2) Watching ESPN's Fab Five video the other night, it dawned on me that Jim Nantz has been calling the Final Four for almost 25 years. Time flies, man.

1) Former Purdue QB Denny Etling transferred to LSU, where he can play for two years starting in 2016. Purdue didn't have a lot of talent; he'll have a lot more fun in Baton Rouge, where they have a lot of speedy kids at the skill positions.

[Udog]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Schedule spot

With the Pan Am Games taking place in Toronto this July, the CFL’s Argonauts and MLB’s Blue Jays will be bumped from their home inside the Rogers Centre. The Jays play 16 of their 25 July games away from home and the Argos open the 2015 campaign with five straight away from Toronto, including what is unofficially a home game in the books this coming week.

Toronto opens the schedule versus the Edmonton Eskimos in Fort McMurray, Alberta – an oil boom town in northern Canada, which is only about four hours from Edmonton. Needless to say, the “home” team won’t have many friendly fans in the stands at SMS Equipment Stadium Saturday night. Books have pegged the Argos as 4.5-point “home” underdogs.

Lookahead spot

Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer has the baseball world eagerly awaiting his next start. The right hander has put together one of the most impressive stints on the mound in recent years, allowing a single hit in his last 18 innings of work including a near-perfect game in his last trip to the mound versus the Pirates last Saturday. Scherzer has struck out 26 batters and walked just one in that span.

While it hasn’t been officially announced, as of Tuesday afternoon, Scherzer is expected to make his next start against the Philadelphia Phillies this Friday. That puts Washington in a tough spot in its series finale with the Braves Thursday, anxious awaiting to see how Scherzer performs the following day. The media circus will be insane as we get closer to that start, so the Nats could get caught looking past Atlanta this week.

Letdown spot

One of the biggest NFL offseason splashes was the Philadelphia Eagles’ signing of free agent running back DeMarco Murray, who led the league in rushing as a member of the rival Dallas Cowboys last season. The Cowboys didn’t show Murray the money he wanted and the Oklahoma product bolted Big D, putting a big circle around their Week 2 matchup on the calendar.

The Cowboys will no doubt be out to prove that Murray’s 2014 production was more to do with their stellar offensive line, and that heated NFC East rivalry game in Philadelphia sets Dallas up for a massive letdown the following week. The Cowboys host Atlanta in Week 3 and, win or lose against the Eagles, that intensity will be tough to match versus the Falcons as early 5.5-point favorites.

[Udog]

CFL season betting preview: How to bet the West Division

The 2015 Canadian Football Season kicks off this week. In the West, the Calgary Stampeders are favored to repeat as Grey Cup champions, with Alberta rivals Edmonton not far behind.

West Division

B.C. Lions (2014: 9-9 SU, 8-9-1 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +625

Why bet the Lions: Quarterback Travis Lulay was the CFL's Most Outstanding Player in 2011, but he's struggled through shoulder injuries in recent years. If Lulay can stay healthy, he's almost certain to put up big numbers for the Lions. He gave Lions fans plenty of reason for optimism throwing for 121 yards and a touchdown on 8-of-13 passing in two quarters in the Lions 18-13 loss to Edmonton on June 19.

Why not to bet the Lions: A healthy Travis Lulay is far from a guarantee, and the offense will suffer if he has any setbacks in his return from injury. The Lions will also have a rookie head coach in Jeff Tedford, who was a coordinator for the NFL's Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year. History tells us that the transition from the NFL to the CFL is not an easy one.

Grey Cup Outlook: If everything goes right for the Lions, they certainly have the talent to get back to the Grey Cup.

Calgary Stampeders (2014: 15-3 SU, 12-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +$375

Why bet the Stampeders: Last year's champs might have the best quarterback in the league in Bo Levi Mitchell, and the 25 year old is likely only going to get better with more experience. Jon Cornish was the league's leading rusher last year, despite only playing half the season. That's right, he ran for 1,082 yards in just nine games.

Why not to bet the Stampeders: They lost a pair of offensive linemen, with Stanley Bryant signing with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Brett Jones making the move to the NFL. They also lost a couple of key players on a defense than was only mediocre last year. Calgary should face stiffer competition from the likes of B.C., Saskatchewan and Edmonton, which have all improved.

Grey Cup Outlook: Calgary is a well-deserved favorite, but keep in mind that only one team has won consecutive championships over the last 17 seasons.

Edmonton Eskimos (2014: 12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +$495

Why bet the Eskimos: They say that defense wins championships, and the Eskimos defense ranked first in the CFL in both yards allowed and points allowed in 2014. Much of the credit goes to head coach Chris Jones, and he's expected to take the team to the next level here in 2015. With Mike Reilly at quarterback, the offense has plenty of potential.

Why not to bet the Eskimos: The road to the Grey Cup goes through Calgary and Edmonton lost all three regular season meetings versus its provincial rivals last year, and then it was shellacked by a score of 43-18 at Calgary in the playoffs.

Grey Cup Outlook: Not good. Defense may win championships in the NFL, but in the CFL you need a stud at QB, and Bo Levi Mitchell is still better than Mike Reilly.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (2014: 10-8 SU, 7-11 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +$560

Why to bet the Riders: Saskatchewan lost quarterback Darian Durant to an injury last year, and went on to lose six of its final eight games without him. Durant is back at 100 percent heading into the 2015 season and the Riders have also added an insurance policy with the addition of backup Kevin Glenn.

Why Not to bet the Riders: With the departure of star offensive lineman Ben Heenan to the NFL, protecting the QB might be a bit of an issue. Glenn is certainly a great backup QB, but there's a reason why he's not the starter.

Grey Cup Outlook: Good. The Riders have what it takes to be considered a serious contender, but they are just one of several strong teams in the West Division.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2014: 7-11 SU, 8-8-2 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +$1,175

Why bet the Blue Bombers: Winnipeg showed some promise last year, winning five of its first six games. While the Bombers suffered a second-half collapse and missed the playoffs, this is still a team that is trending in the right direction. Head coach Mike O'Shea will enter his second season with Drew Willy vying to become the quarterback of the future.

Why not to bet the Blue Bombers: Winnipeg allowed a whopping 71 quarterback sacks last season - an area that desperately needs improvement. The offensive line looks better on paper, but it remains to be seen if that will translate to performance on the field.

Grey Cup Outlook: Not good. This team should be improved, but will likely be a few years away from becoming a true contender.

[Udog]

How much will CFL rule changes impact betting totals in 2015?

The CFL is throwing a little gas on the fire this coming 2015 season, trying to spark scoring with revamped rules that it hopes will boost point production after a down year for the league.

The two biggest rule changes are the new defensive pass interference rule, not allowing defenders to make any contact with receivers whatsoever after five yards from the line of scrimmage, and a new punt coverage rule that gives returning teams much more running room.

These changes could have a big impact on scoring, especially if teams continuously gain solid field position from softer defense, penalties and punts, but it won’t be reflected in the CFL betting totals. At least not yet.

According to Randall “The Handle”, renowned CFL oddsmaker for a number of sportsbooks, he’s taking a wait-and-see approach with these adjustments before tacking on any extra points to the CFL Over/Unders.

“It’s more of a case of monitoring,” Randall tells Covers. “It’s a big smoke screen, in my opinion. Scoring was down and there was a knee-jerk reaction to it. There’s just not a lot of good players in the league right now… I think the league is trying to give itself a shot in the arm (with these rule changes).”

The 2014 CFL campaign was a downtick in offensive production compared to the year prior, with teams averaging 22.74 points per game last summer compared to 26.21 in 2013.

That power outage showed up at the sportsbooks last summer, when CFL action went 5-15 Over/Under through the first five weeks of the schedule – cashing in for the Under at a 75 percent rate. And because the CFL isn’t the most popular wagering option on the board, many books didn’t even notice that one-sided lean to the Under early into 2014. On the year, CFL games finished 34-51 O/U with a 60 percent winning clip for Under bettors.

The CFL, which has hung its helmet on its explosive scoring prowess when trying to sell the product to new markets, is putting in a hands-off policy when it comes to defensive backs trying to slow down receivers.

And unlike the NFL, teams can have multiple receivers in motion when the ball is snapped, giving defenders even less time to slow down opposing targets. Oh, and head coaches can also challenge pass interference calls/no calls in the CFL, so it looks like defenders could have their hands tied in 2015.

Randall specifically mentions the decline in the passing game when noting these new rules, pointing out that there were only three receivers with more than 1,000 yards in 2014 compared to seven in 2013, and that there were only two quarterbacks who threw for 20-plus touchdown in 2014 when there were four the previous season.

As for the running game, the CFL had just one 1,000-yard rusher in 2014 – Calgary RB Jon Cornish (1,082 yards in just nine games) – after having two in 2013, four in 2012, three in 2011, five in 2010, and seven in 2009.

The new punt rule forces the five interior linemen on the punting team to stay at the line of scrimmage until the ball is punted, limiting the amount of defenders downfield. The rule is estimated to give punt returners about an extra 10 yards of running room and put more space between the defending team’s first wave – the gunners - and second wave of tacklers.

The 2014 CFL season featured nine punt return touchdowns, three scores on kickoffs and three TDs off missed field goals returns.

These amendments to the rulebook may be a change in the right direction, in terms of getting the CFL back to its high-scoring status, but are far from difference makers, says Randall, who doesn’t see teams making major adjustments to these changes, on either side of the ball, out of the gate.

“Defensively, they’ll stick to what they’ve been doing, with the same special teams coverages,” he says. “From what I’m reading, coaches really don’t know what to do, and they’ll adjust if they need to. On offense, they’re always looking for that speedster guy that can run it back, so that won’t be any different.”

Week 1 features four games with an average current total of 49.25 points. Last season, Week 1 totals closed at an average of 54 points and finished 1-3 Over/Under. Over the past 10 CFL seasons, Week 1 contests have produced a 16-24 O/U record – playing below the total 60 percent of the time.

[Udog]

WNBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, June 24


Atlanta @ Chicago

Game 601-602
June 24, 2015 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
103.041
Chicago
117.420
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 14 1/2
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 8
156 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-8); Under




WNBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, June 24

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LOS ANGELES (0 - 4) at WASHINGTON (4 - 2) - 6/23/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 15-25 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in June games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 18-31 ATS (-16.1 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 262-320 ATS (-90.0 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 84-112 ATS (-39.2 Units) in home games in May, June, or July games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Wednesday, June 24

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Trend Report
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12:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHICAGO
Atlanta is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Chicago is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games


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