Announcement

**Udog** · 06-11-2015, 08:13 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Braves are building a new ballpark; 60% of the 41,000 seats will be under cover. 19,000 tickets each night will be priced at $20 or less.

-- Texas Rangers are 6-0 on the road when Nick Martinez pitches.

-- Padress sent 2B Jedd Gyorko to AAA; they still owe him $30M on his deal.

-- Giants' LF Nori Aoki is hitting .415 on the road this season.

-- Mets' catchers had dismal .277 slugging percentage with Travis d'Arnaud on DL.

-- Nike signed an 8-year, $1B deal to do the NBA's uniforms/warmups.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......

13) There is so much turnover in baseball teams from year-to-year now, the first half of the season is a mishmash of sloppy play, with some teams then selling off players, and then a few teams getting hot in the second half and making the playoffs. Teams come from nowhere one year, then go back under the woodwork the next year.

12) Dodgers are now the big money team; they have a seemingly bottomless budget. I have no idea what Bronx is doing- they've got a lot of old, expensive players-- Joe Girardi has done a great job keeping them atop a weak AL East, but they took a big blow yesterday when closer Andrew Miller went on the DL

11) Houston has lost eight games in a row now, as they try to patch holes with young guys promoted from the minor leagues. Toronto has won eight in a row, as their big bats begin to heat up. The big question becomes, "Which teams will spend money to supplement their roster with players from other teams?"

10) Phillies are 22-39, an aging/bad team but if the games were only five innings long, they would be even worse. Their five-inning record: 10-39-12; only ten times in 61 games have they led after the fifth inning.

9) Lebron James is a good guy; he sent one of the kids who tied for the spelling bee title an autographed pair of sneakers and a pair of Beats headphones, which hopefully doesn't drill spelling words into his ears.

8) Oakland A's had 24 wins in their final at-bat last year; they got their first one this year last night- they're 1-10 in games decided in a team's final AB.

7) Why did the Miami Marlins fire their manager? How did that help anything? Now the remaining coaches are at odds with the new coaches, the players are rolling their eyes with another season of dysfunction- their team stinks. Baseball is basically an individual sport-- a guy's stats dictates his salary to some degree, so players play for themselves at all times but it still makes the Marlins much less fun to watch.

6) Run differential is a stupid stat; Oakland has scored three more runs than it has alloowed and they're a putrid 24-37, because they suck in close games!!! Thats the stat that matters; the A's pound on bad righty pitchers- they cannot beat a lefty (3-11).

5) Orioles 1B Chris Davis bunted for an easy hit against a Boston shift in bottom of 2nd last night; Red Sox had no one left of shortstop. If you don't like being shifted against, you have to do stuff like that to get teams to change defenses.

4) San Diego Chargers will retire LaDanian Tomlinson's #21 at halftime of game in November, a Sunday night game. That guarantees a sellout that night.

3) A high school kid named Skylar Mays is moving from Louisiana to Las Vegas for his senior year of HS, to play ball at Findlay Prep. Mr Mays is a recruiting target of UNLV, so this is convenient for them. Has to be tough for a kid to leave home for his last year of school though. Mays is a 6-3 point guard.

2) Danny Ainge's son is going on a 2-year Mormon mission; when he comes back he will be on basketball scholarship at Utah State. The elder Ainge played at BYU.

1) Football teams are using virtual reality technology to help accelerate their QB's development; they can put this helmet on and see what opposing defenses would look like on a field-- coaches are raving about technology while also wishing no one would write about it, so not everyone will have the same tools to work with.

**Udog** · 06-11-2015, 08:17 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, June 11

Golden State @ Cleveland

Game 707--708
June 11, 2015 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
136.445
Cleveland
128.662
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 8
188
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 2 1/2
193 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-2 1/2); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 11

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GOLDEN STATE (80 - 20) at CLEVELAND (67 - 32) - 6/11/2015, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 54-42 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 49-36 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-23 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 56-39 ATS (+13.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-4 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 5-4 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, June 10

When a team goes 12-34 from arc and only 7-12 on line, its hard for them to win; Golden State is 20-69 from arc last two games- Cavaliers are kicking their butts with physical play, a stronger will. Cleveland attacks hoop more with Irving gone; they are 45-64 on foul line in lst two games (13-19 in Game 1). Warriors played well once they started playing with sense of desperation; can they play that way for 48:00? Dellavedova is a spunky guy who defends well; he played 42:00/38:31 last two games, was in hospital for dehydration after-- can he keep up his gritty play?

Golden State won eight of its last 12 games with Cleveland; nine of the 12 games were decided by 8+ points. Cavaliers are 14-3 so far in playoffs, Warriors are 13-5. Ten of last 13 Golden State games stayed under the total. Five of last six series games stayed under the total. Warriors won four of last six visits here, but Lebron was in Miami for the four wins. Golden State needs a faster-paced game to succeed in this series.

2015 playoffs
Cleveland vs Golden State
GSt 108-100 OT, -6, O203.5
Clev 95-93, OT, +7.5, U199
Clev 96-91, +2, U194.5

NBA

Thursday, June 11

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. CLEVELAND
Golden State is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Golden State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Golden State
Cleveland is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Golden State

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**Udog** · 06-11-2015, 08:17 AM

NBA

Thursday, June 11

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Game of the Day: Warriors at Cavaliers
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Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (+2.5, 193)

Cavaliers lead series 2-1

The Cleveland Cavaliers are controlling the pace and flow of the NBA Finals and look to take another step toward winning the best-of-seven series when they host the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. Cleveland again frustrated the speedy Warriors while posting a 96-91 in Game 3 on Tuesday and can take a dominating 3-1 series lead with another strong effort in Game 4.

The Cavaliers have slowed the games to a tempo that has knocked high-scoring Golden State out of sync while LeBron James has been dynamic by averaging 41 points, 12 rebounds and 8.3 assists over the first three games. "Every time the media or anyone thinks that he can't accomplish something or do something remarkable, he always answers the call," forward Tristan Thompson told reporters. "He's playing great basketball for us, and we're just getting on his shoulders and just riding him the through the game." League MVP Stephen Curry is averaging 24 points in the series for the Warriors but was nonexistent for most of the first 30 minutes in Game 3 before a strong final quarter in which he made five 3-pointers and scored 17 points. "Whether I'm making shots or not, I've got to stay -- I'll use the word vibrant -- just kind of having fun out there," Curry said at a press conference. "Because the team definitely feeds off of my energy and the joy for the game."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The opening total (192.5) has jumped half-a-point. The spread opened at CLE +2.5 and has remained there.

INJURY REPORT: Warriors - F Draymond Green (Prob-Back) Cavaliers - G Matthew Dellavedova (Prob-Fatigue), G Iman Shumpert (Prob-Shoulder)

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State looks nothing like the squad that recorded 67 regular-season victories and forward Draymond Green criticized his team's effort and competitiveness on Wednesday's off-day. "They're playing like a team that's desperate and needs something," Green told reporters of the Cavaliers. "We're playing like a team that's not desperate and got something. ... This isn't the time to be quiet. Everybody should speak up. You be quiet now, you'll be home in a couple of days." Perhaps the biggest positive the Warriors could point to in Game 3 was the play of reserve forward David Lee, who came off the bench to score 11 points in 13 minutes in his first action of the series.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Cleveland is already without point guard Kyrie Irving (knee) and power forward Kevin Love (shoulder) and sidestepped more misfortune when guards Iman Shumpert (shoulder) and Matthew Dellavedova (severe dehydration) had issues in Game 3. Shumpert collided with the screening Green and injured his left shoulder and an MRI exam performed Wednesday displayed the injury was only a bruise, while Dellavedova cramped up so badly after Tuesday's 20-point performance that he was taken to a hospital via ambulance and spent the night receiving IV treatments. "I felt like I pushed the limit a few times," Dellavedova told reporters Wednesday after returning to the team. "That's the most tired I've been. I'm feeling good now, though."

TRENDS:

*Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
*Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
*Under is 12-3 in Warriors last 15 overall.

CONSENSUS: 51.32 percent of the public is behind the Warriors -2.5 with 71.4 percent on the over.

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**Udog** · 06-11-2015, 08:18 AM

NBA

Thursday, June 11

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Cavs-Warriors NBA Finals sees historic adjustment in Over/Under betting
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The 2015 NBA Finals has undergone the biggest adjustment in betting totals from Game 1 to Game 4 in any championship series over the last 24 years, with a 10.5-point difference between the opening game total and fourth installment of the series.

Going back to the 1991 NBA Finals (as far back as Covers’ NBA betting database allows), the most a total has jumped between Game 1 and Game 4 is 6.5 points. That adjustment occurred in the 1991 championship between Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls and Magic Johnson and the Los Angeles Lakers (Game 1: 201.5, Game 4: 195), and the 1998 finals featuring Chicago and the Utah Jazz (Game 1: 186, Game 4: 179.5).

Game 1 of the 2015 NBA Finals closed with a lofty total of 203.5 points, only playing Over due to an added overtime period that saw Golden State edge Cleveland 108-100 last Thursday. Game 2 closed with an Over/Under of 199 points, with the Cavaliers stealing a 95-93 OT win in Oracle Arena and playing Under despite the extra frame. That led to a 194.5-point closing total for Tuesday’s Game 3 in Cleveland, in which the home side won 96-91 for another easy Under winner.

That takes NBA bettors to the opening total for Thursday’s Game 4 of the NBA Finals, which sits at 193 points – a more than 10-point difference from the series opening number. With such a gap between the Over/Under for Game 1 and Game 4, were oddsmakers completely wrong when it came to this series?

Well, no. While scoring has been at a premium in this series, and all three games fell Under the total in regulation by a combined 40 points, sportsbooks make their adjustments based on two factors: 1. Game outcomes. 2. Betting patterns. And as far as the basketball betting public is concerned, every game should be going Over.

“We’d get Over money tomorrow if we set the total at 232,” Jimmy Vaccaro, veteran linesmaker for South Point Las Vegas, tells Covers.

According to books in Nevada and online, the Over has been the popular pick with the recreational bettors while the sharps have swooped in and taken the Under. That’s just fine by bookmakers, who have not only been big winners with those Under results the past two games but also with plenty of Over plays parlayed to the Warriors.

“You just make adjustments, that’s all,” John Avello, director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, tells Covers. “Golden State isn’t shooting the ball well. So just like their coach has to make adjustments, the books have to make adjustments.”

The NBA Finals have been a breeding ground for Under paydays in recent seasons. Since the 2006 NBA Finals, championship games have gone 19-29-3 Over/Under (60.4 percent Under) and Game 4 situations have produced a 2-7 O/U mark in that span – the most profitable situation for Under bettors in the best-of-seven format for the finals.

That’s not to say the totals won’t climb back towards 200-plus points for the remaining games of the series, especially with a Game 5 in Golden State on the schedule. Cleveland’s defense is getting the bulk of the praise for this downtick in offensive production but the Cavs’ clock-sucking offense and just plain poor shooting from the Warriors – specifically Stephen Curry – is having a big impact on how the totals trickle down.

“I think the Cavs are making it difficult but the Warriors are just missing wide-open shots,” says Avello, pointing to Golden State's 41.4 percent shooting in the finals. “They’re just missing. (Matthew) Dellavedova is OK, but they’re (the media) making him out to be the next great defensive stopper. But it’s more about Curry missing open shots, going 2 for 15. You have no chance to go Over the total when he’s shooting that way.”

Looking back over the past nine NBA Finals, Game 4 has seen an average closing total of 189.72 points against an average total of 185 points scored. However, Game 5 totals jump to an average of 191.31 with 202 points scored, producing a 5-3 O/U record.

Game 3 winners

Game 3 is a pivotal matchup for any playoff series, with one team taking a 2-1 edge or putting a 3-0 chokehold on their opponent. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Game 3 winners - when the series is tied 1-1 - have gone on to win the NBA title in 31 of the past 37 situations. One of those six exceptions was LeBron James and the 2013 Miami Heat, who dropped Game 3 to San Antonio but rallied to win the series.

Looking back to the 1991 NBA Finals, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to a collective 13-11 SU and 13-10-1 ATS record in Game 4 of the series. As for LeBron, he’s 2-3 SU, ATS, and O/U in Game 4 of the NBA Finals for his career, averaging 24 points, 6.4 assists, and nine rebounds in those contests.

Finals home dogs

Cleveland was just the 18th finals home underdog since the 1991 NBA Finals, covering the spread as a 2-point pup in Game 3 Tuesday. In that span, home dogs have finished 6-12 SU, 8-10 ATS, and 11-9 Over/Under.

It was also just the fourth time all season the Cavaliers were getting the points at home, and the first time they’ve won and covered in that rare role. Cleveland is once against the underdog in Game 4, set at +3 Thursday.

LeBron MVP no matter what

Not since Jerry West in the 1969 NBA Finals has the Finals MVP award gone to a player on the losing team. In fact, that’s the only time it’s happened.

LeBron James is making a case for the now-labelled Bill Russell Award, averaging 41 points, 12 rebounds and more than eight assists in the 2015 finals, and entered the series priced at +180 to win Finals MVP. Despite pushing the Cavs to a 2-1 series lead, oddsmakers still have Golden State as a -115 favorite to win the NBA championship, with Cleveland coming back at -105.

Win or lose, James should get major MVP consideration, and has already won over one Las Vegas bookmaker (even though you can’t wager on MVP odds in Nevada - yet).

“If you take LeBron off the court and you take that group of guys they have right now (no Kevin Love, no Kyrie Irving), they wouldn’t win five games all year,” says Avello.

The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas has set James’ Game 4 scoring total at 35.5 points (-110 either side). Curry has a conservative scoring total prop of 28.5 points (-110 either way).

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**Udog** · 06-11-2015, 08:20 AM

NBA

Thursday, June 11

Dellavedova, Shumpert expected to play in Game 4

Both Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova have injury concerns heading into Game 4 Thursday, but both are expected to suit up for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

"I'm all right, this isn't the regular season," Shumpert said after getting an MRI on his shoulder. "It would take a lot for me not to play, there would have to be structural damage."

Dellavedova, who was dealing with dehydration after Game 3, will have his minutes monitored Thursday according to coach David Blatt.

The Cavs are currently +2.5 when they host the Warriors.

**Udog** · 06-11-2015, 08:23 AM

WNBA

Thursday, June 11

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. CONNECTICUT
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Connecticut
Connecticut is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

7:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio

7:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. NEW YORK
Phoenix is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New York
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New York's last 10 games when playing Phoenix
New York is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix

8:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. MINNESOTA
Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Seattle
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle

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WNBA

Thursday, June 11

Liberty, Shock cover again, remain a hot wager

Yes, it is early days in the WNBA season, but the New York Liberty and Tulsa Shock each won and covered the spread Tuesday evening to remain perfect at the betting window.

The Liberty won 86-79 over the Indiana Fever, covering the spread as 4.5-point home faves while the Shock hammered the Seattle Storm 68-45 as 6-point home favorites. Both clubs improved to 3-0 against the spread to remain the best bets in the league.

Next up for the Liberty is a date with the Phoenix Mercury Thursday evening, while the Shock have a few days off before visiting the San Antonio Stars Sunday.

**Udog** · 06-11-2015, 10:30 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Thursday, June 11

San Antonio @ Atlanta

Game 601-602
June 11, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
103.339
Atlanta
125.412
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 22
159
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 6
153 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-6); Over

Phoenix @ New York

Game 603-604
June 11, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
120.536
New York
114.271
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Phoenix
by 6
155
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Phoenix
by 3 1/2
149 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Phoenix
(-3 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Connecticut

Game 605-606
June 11, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
108.997
Connecticut
114.115
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Connecticut
by 5
148
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 5
155
Dunkel Pick:
Connecticut
(+5); Under

Seattle @ Minnesota

Game 607-608
June 11, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
107.465
Minnesota
116.302
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 9
142
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 13 1/2
149 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+13 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 06-11-2015, 01:49 PM

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 11

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SAN ANTONIO (0 - 1) at ATLANTA (0 - 2) - 6/11/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games in June games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (1 - 0) at NEW YORK (2 - 1) - 6/11/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 2-2 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 4-0 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (1 - 1) at CONNECTICUT (1 - 1) - 6/11/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in June games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 7-1 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 7-1 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (1 - 1) at MINNESOTA (2 - 0) - 6/11/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 64-91 ATS (-36.1 Units) in road games after a division game since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-4 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 8-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 06-11-2015, 01:52 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, June 11

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - Cavs Lead Series 2-1

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers, 9:00 ET
Golden State: 13-4 UNDER as a # 1 seed in the playoffs
Cleveland: 12-3 ATS at home after a win by 6 points or less

**Udog** · 06-11-2015, 03:02 PM

MLB

Thursday, June 11

Warriors haven't dropped three straight all season

The Golden State Warriors head into Game 4 of the NBA Finals having dropped two straight games and trail the Cleveland Cavaliers 2-1, but luckily for Warriors fans and backers, Golden State hasn't lost three straight games all season.

In fact the Warriors have lost back-to-back games only five times all season, two of which have been during this postseason run.

When it comes to covering the spread after consecutive losses the Warriors are 3-2, but have covered the last three in a row.

Golden State is currently a 2.5-point road favorites for Game 4 and -150 to win on the moneyline.

Announcement

Thursday's NBA and WNBA Trends and Indexes - 6/11

Thursday's NBA and WNBA Trends and Indexes - 6/11

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