Announcement

**Udog** · 05-02-2015, 09:47 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

-- Alex Rodriguez hit his 660th home run, tying Willie Mays on the all-time list and the HR was a game-winner in 8th inning at Boston. Thats a $6M homer, people.

-- Red Sox called catching prospect Blake Swihart up after Ryan Hanigan got hurt by a foul tip Friday night. Swihart is supposed to be a good one.

-- Jameis Winston can keep a secret; his people had to be negotiating with the Bucs before the draft- he already signed a four-year, $35.35M contract.

-- ESPN has to have a stake in the pay per view for the Mayweather fight tonight, don't they? The amount of publicity they gave this fight is astounding.

-- 49ers, Redskins, Patriots all have seven draft picks today, most of any teams, as the NFL Draft winds up in Chicago.

-- Thru two days, 25 Pac-12 players were drafted, 22 from SEC, 20 from ACC.

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: DD Lohaus handicaps the Derby........

Boy, if today was any indication of the weather and the type of racing to come than Saturday's Kentucky Derby Day should be a great one.

I must admit that I did get into the races a bit later than usual this year but I believe what I have seen is enough to have a pretty good idea of who I believe are top contenders.

What is generally regarded as a solid group of three year olds really should offer some decent value once you settle on your horse BUT I simply couldn't get past my top two. And ironically they are trained by the same guy (which is really getting to be more frequent in recent years).

American Pharoah looks like a very special horse. I really wanted to find a reason to bet against him but his most recent workout over the Churchill track really clinched it for me. He is strictly the one to beat. Now at what figures to be very short odds, a large field and some a lot of traffic early, I am likely not to place a win bet on him but he will be the key in my exotics.

Dortmund is a very interesting case and may be a bit more 'battle tested' than his most respected stable mate. He has a win over the track and he certainly figures to be the main challenger.

I really, really liked Carpe Diem's victory in the Bluegrass and he appears to take his game with him wherever he goes. I am always a bit biased by a win at Saratoga and his Breeders Cup effort was solid. Don't like the post AT ALL...he will have to use some horse to keep his position and that will cost him late in the race. May afford some value.

Firing Line ran a monster last time and if you like Dortmund you have to like this guy (ran second twice; just missed both times). Stevens is solid and maybe this guy is this good.

It wouldn't be gambling if I didn't give a bomber to make things interesting.... The horse I think is worth a deuce across the board is Keen Ice.

I know, the guy has only won once and it was a maiden race to boot (but it was over the Churchill strip)...but if the fractions are lightning fast this guy could be running late and pick up some of the pieces. He has a steady tab of workouts and gets a major upgrade in Desormeaux....why not...

The Selections:
1. American Pharoah - could be a monster
2. Dortmund - hard-knocker who can mix it up
3. Carpe Diem - liked Bluegrass but hate post...will need all he has turning for home

The Bets
$20Ex American Pharoah/Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Keen Ice
$5 Ex Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Keen Ice/American Pharoah
$1ExBX Dortmund/Carpe Diem/Firing Line/Keen Ice
$2WPS Keen Ice

Total Bets: $118.00

**Udog** · 05-02-2015, 09:48 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 2

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SAN ANTONIO (58 - 30) at LA CLIPPERS (59 - 29) - 5/2/2015, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 904-790 ATS (+35.0 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 326-272 ATS (+26.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 32-23 ATS (+6.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 17-27 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 132-172 ATS (-57.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 9-8 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-8 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 2

Home side lost four of last five Spur-Clipper games. Clippers shot 51.3%, 53.6%, 47.5% from floor in its three series wins- they shot 42.4%, 34.1%, 46.5% in three losses. San Antonio was 28-86 from arc in three losses, 29-73 in three wins- they only took 21 FTs last game (28 3's)- they need to attack basket more, especially Parker and Green, the starting guards. Leonard was -19 last game; he has to be better if SA is to win. Under is 2-1 in Clipper wins, 1-2 when the Spurs have won.

Home favorites are 15-14 in this round, home dogs are 5-6; home teams are 24-16 SU-- over is 17-23.

2015 playoffs
Brooklyn vs Atlanta
Atl 99-92, -10, U201.5
Atl 96-91, -9.5, U202
Brook 91-83, +3.5, U199
Brook 120-115 OT, +5, O198
Atl 107-97, -9, O200
Atl 111-87, -5, U198.5
Hawks win series, 4-2

Boston vs Cleveland
Clev 113-100, -11.5, O203
Clev 99-91, -11, U206
Clev 103-95, -4, U204
Clev 101-93, -6.5, U201.5
Cavaliers won series, 4-0

Milwaukee vs Chicago
Chi 103-91, -8, O186
Chi 91-82, -8, U190.5
Chi 113-106, 2OT, -2.5, O187
Mil 92-90, +4, U190
Mil 94-88, +8, U189
Chi 120-66, -3.5, U188.5
Bulls win series 4-2

Washington vs Toronto
Wash 93-86 OT, +4, U194.5
Wash 117-106, +5, O193.5
Wash 106-99, -4.5, O195.5
Wash 125-94, -6.5, O197.5
Wizards win series, 4-0

New Orleans vs Golden State
GSt 106-99, -12, U205
GSt 97-87, -13, U206.5
GSt 123-119 OT, -5, O203
GSt 109-98, -6.5, U208
Warriors win series, 4-0

Dallas vs Houston
Hst 118-108, -5.5, O212.5
Hst 111-99, -6.5, U214
Hst 130-128, +1, O214.5
Dal 121-109, +3, O218.5
Hst 103-94, -8, U221.5
Rockets win series, 4-1

San Antonio vs LA Clippers
LAC 107-92, -1.5, U207
SA 111-107 OT, +1.5, O207.5
SA 100-73, -5, U203.5
LAC 114-105, +6, O202.5
SA 111-107, +2.5, O203
LAC 102-96, +5.5, U206

Portland vs Memphis
Mem 100-86, -5.5, U188.5
Mem 97-82, -6, U189
Mem 115-109, +3.5, O189
Port 99-92, -4, U193
Mem 99-93, -6, O189.5
Grizzlies win series, 4-1

East vs West
SU: West 242-177 ATS: West 214-202-3
East teams HF vs West: 56-57
East teams HU vs West: 46-52
West teams HF vs East: 81-79-3
West teams HU vs East: 24-21

NBA

Saturday, May 2

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. LA CLIPPERS
San Antonio is 17-5 SU in their last 22 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the LA Clippers last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the LA Clippers last 8 games when playing at home against San Antonio

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**Udog** · 05-02-2015, 09:49 AM

NBA

Saturday, May 2

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Game of the Day: Spurs at Clippers
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San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (-2, 204)
Series tied 3-3

The San Antonio Spurs aren’t expecting to go home after the opening round of the playoffs but the host Los Angeles Clippers have a chance to eliminate the defending champions in Saturday’s Game 7 of the Western Conference series. Los Angeles posted its second win in San Antonio on Thursday and now owns home court for the decisive game of the highly competitive series.

Few people were predicting the Clippers to prevail in the series but they stand one win away from an epic accomplishment. “A lot of us on our team have been watching these guys since we were kids, in all honesty,” Los Angeles point guard Chris Paul told reporters. “You just see them do the same thing over and over again. It’s been a lot of fun but it all comes down to Game 7.” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich certainly didn’t like what he viewed in the 102-96 loss in Game 6. “We were just soft and it hurt,” Popovich told reporters. “I don’t know how we stayed in the game to be honest with you.”

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Southwest (San Antonio), Prime Ticket (Los Angeles)

LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened at -2.5 before quickly being bet down to -2. The opening total of 204.5 has fallen to 204.

INJURY REPORT: Spurs - N/A Clippers - Glen Davis (Ques-Ankle)

ABOUT THE SPURS: Backup shooting guard Marco Belinelli made seven 3-pointers while scoring 23 points in Game 6 as it was the San Antonio stars who let the team down with subpar efforts. Small forward Kawhi Leonard had his worst game of the series with 12 points on 3-of-15 shooting and power forward Tim Duncan (12 points, 13 rebounds) was the lone starter who played well. While Belinelli stood out, backcourt mates Tony Parker, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili and Patty Mills were a combined 9-of-29 from the field.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Power forward Blake Griffin has enjoyed a spectacular series with averages of 24.2 points, 13.2 rebounds and seven assists, and had 26 points and 12 rebounds in Game 6 for his sixth straight double-double. “It has been a lot of fun to play in,” Griffin told reporters after Thursday’s game. “Like we said after Game 5, this series is not over and we haven’t done anything just by winning this game. We have one more game to play and we are happy we are going home to play.” Point guard Chris Paul was just 7-of-21 shooting in Game 6 but contributed 19 points, 15 assists and four steals.

TRENDS:

*Spurs are 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Los Angeles.
*Clippers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 Conference Quarterfinals games.
*Over is 9-2 in Spurs last 11 games following a ATS loss.
*Under is 10-4 in Clippers last 14 home games.

CONSENSUS: 50.60 percent of users are backing the Spurs +2.

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**Udog** · 05-02-2015, 09:56 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, May 2

San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers

Game 551-552
May 2, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio Spurs
127.083
Los Angeles Clipp
132.068
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles Clipp
by 5
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles Clipp
by 2
204
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles Clipp
(-2); Over

**Udog** · 05-02-2015, 10:36 AM

NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, May 2

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied 3-3

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers, 8:05 ET
San Antonio: 28-12 ATS when tied in a playoff series, 18-7 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite
Los Angeles Clippers: 16-26 ATS as a home favorite, 17-27 ATS in home games

Announcement

Saturday's NBA and NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 5/2

Saturday's NBA and NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 5/2

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