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**Udog** · 05-01-2015, 10:00 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- Washington 2, Rangers 1-- Joel Ward scored in last two seconds for the win.

-- Anaheim 6, Calgary 1-- Flames are 1-23 in last 24 games in Orange County.

-- Bulls 120, Bucks 66-- Ugly end to a promising season for Milwaukee.

-- Clippers 102, Spurs 96-- Road team won four of six series games.

-- Royals 8, Tigers 1-- Kansas City is now 8-0 in series openers.

-- Nationals 8, Mets 3-- Last six Washington games went over the total

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Happy May Day, everyone...........

13) After months and months of speculation, Round 1 of the draft was marked by the expected happening-- not many surprises at all Thursday night. Makes you wonder why so many media outlets pay so many people to speculate on whats going to happen, when nothing out of the ordinary happens.

Then again, Round 2 is tonight and the rest of the draft is Saturday; could be some wheeling and dealing then, or is this draft a little talent-shy, so people aren't willing to take a chance on a big trade?

12) ESPN has a new star in Louis Riddick, who is excellent on TV; he only got on because Ray Lewis begged out after the problems in Baltimore, but they are idiots if Riddick doesn't become a big part of their pregame show.

11) There are more than 3,000 hats stored backstage at the draft; all 32 teams in every size. Merchandising is big business.

10) Odd but true: since he came into the NFL, Matt Ryan has made more money than Tom Brady- go figure.

9) Only two trades last night; San Diego traded up to get RB Melvin Gordon, which will boost their offense- they gave up a lot to move up two slots.

8) Speaking of the Chargers, Mrs Philip Rivers is pregnant with the couple's 8th child-- San Diego was wise to hang onto the veteran QB.

7) Washington Huskies were only team to have three kids drafted last night, which I'm sure makes coach Petersen happy-- good ammunition for when he goes out recruiting for the next year.

6) One of those three players was CB Marcus Peters, who Petersen tossed off the team LY after an series of arguments with assistant coaches. Kansas City scouts talked with Petersen's staff and with former coach Steve Sarkisian, and they must've found Sarkisian more convincing- they drafted the kid.

5) Saints are going to run the ball more; why else would they draft 6-7, 313-pound Andrus Peat in the first round?

4) Marc Trestman will be Baltimore's fourth OC in four years; his QB coach is Marty Mornhinweg, who somehow keeps getting NFL jobs, despite showing nothing that would distinguish him as an assistant or head coach.

3) Hard to believe, but when the Giants drafted Ereck Flowers, he was the first Miami Hurricane drafted in first round since Kenny Phillips in 2008, also by the Giants. Before that, Miami had gone 14 years in a row with a first round pick.

2) Interesting hearing NFL Network guys saying that Leonard Williams was "the best player in the draft." More than one guy said that. Jets got themselves a good deal.

1) Elsewhere, Billy Donovan left Florida for the NBA-- big story next week will be who gets the Florida job and how many dominos does that create, job-wise?

**Udog** · 05-01-2015, 10:01 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, May 1

Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets

Game 537-538
May 1, 2015 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta Hawks
125.846
Brooklyn Nets
112.389
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta Hawks
by 13 1/2
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta Hawks
by 3 1/2
200 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta Hawks
(-3 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, May 1

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ATLANTA (63 - 24) at BROOKLYN (40 - 47) - 5/1/2015, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) in road games in all playoff games since 1996.
ATLANTA is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in road games in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
ATLANTA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when leading in a playoff series since 1996.
BROOKLYN is 55-37 ATS (+14.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points this season.
ATLANTA is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) on Friday nights this season.
ATLANTA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
ATLANTA is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 8-8 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 10-6 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 1

Home side won all five Brooklyn-Atlanta games in this series, as Hawks lost Games 3-4 here by 8-5 points. Hawks made 35 of 94 from arc, 49-61 on line in three home wins, but were 19-63 from arc, 23-32 on line in Game 3-4 losses. Johnson is just 29-81 in series, he had best game (7-15) last game. Hawks lost last four road games, all by 9 or less points. Brooklyn won its last three home games, by 13-8-5 points. Nets have to win to force a Game 7.

Home favorites are 15-14 in this round, home dogs are 5-5; home teams are 24-15 SU-- over is 17-22.

2015 playoffs
Brooklyn vs Atlanta
Atl 99-92, -10, U201.5
Atl 96-91, -9.5, U202
Brook 91-83, +3.5, U199
Brook 120-115 OT, +5, O198
Atl 107-97, -9, O200

Boston vs Cleveland
Clev 113-100, -11.5, O203
Clev 99-91, -11, U206
Clev 103-95, -4, U204
Clev 101-93, -6.5, U201.5
Cavaliers won series, 4-0

Milwaukee vs Chicago
Chi 103-91, -8, O186
Chi 91-82, -8, U190.5
Chi 113-106, 2OT, -2.5, O187
Mil 92-90, +4, U190
Mil 94-88, +8, U189
Chi 120-66, -3.5, U188.5
Bulls win series 4-2

Washington vs Toronto
Wash 93-86 OT, +4, U194.5
Wash 117-106, +5, O193.5
Wash 106-99, -4.5, O195.5
Wash 125-94, -6.5, O197.5
Wizards win series, 4-0

New Orleans vs Golden State
GSt 106-99, -12, U205
GSt 97-87, -13, U206.5
GSt 123-119 OT, -5, O203
GSt 109-98, -6.5, U208
Warriors win series, 4-0

Dallas vs Houston
Hst 118-108, -5.5, O212.5
Hst 111-99, -6.5, U214
Hst 130-128, +1, O214.5
Dal 121-109, +3, O218.5
Hst 103-94, -8, U221.5
Rockets win series, 4-1

San Antonio vs LA Clippers
LAC 107-92, -1.5, U207
SA 111-107 OT, +1.5, O207.5
SA 100-73, -5, U203.5
LAC 114-105, +6, O202.5
SA 111-107, +2.5, O203
LAC 102-96, +5.5, U206

Portland vs Memphis
Mem 100-86, -5.5, U188.5
Mem 97-82, -6, U189
Mem 115-109, +3.5, O189
Port 99-92, -4, U193
Mem 99-93, -6, O189.5
Grizzlies win series, 4-1

East vs West
SU: West 242-177 ATS: West 214-202-3
East teams HF vs West: 56-57
East teams HU vs West: 46-52
West teams HF vs East: 81-79-3
West teams HU vs East: 24-21

NBA

Friday, May 1

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. BROOKLYN
Atlanta is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Brooklyn is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Brooklyn is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home

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**Udog** · 05-01-2015, 11:03 AM

Kentucky Derby betting horse-by-horse preview and picks

Saturday’s 141st running of the Kentucky Derby is one of the most anticipated in years loaded with potential superstars. Here’s a horse-by-horse look at the field for the Run for the Roses:

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Jockey - Elvis Trujillo, odds - 50-1): Tiny colt won the first three races of his career but there’s too much speed in this field for him to be a true contender and you don’t win this race from the rail.

2. Carpe Diem (John Velazquez, 10-1): Texas Red, who was believed to be a big Derby threat before being injured is the lone horse to beat this one in five career starts but Carpe Diem’s times haven’t been that great. A contender but one with question marks.

3. Materiality (Javier Castellano, 12-1): Is unbeaten in three career starts and ran a 110 speed figure, the highest in the field, in winning the Florida Derby. Unraced as a two-year-old, which generally raises the white flag, and wants to run from the front, which is a bigger concern against these.

4. Tencendur (Manny Franco, 30-1): Last race, a second in the Wood was his best yet, but even that won’t get the job done here. Pass.

5. Danzig Moon (Julien Leparoux, 30-1): Wowed the clockers in a work on April 18 at Churchill Downs but has just one win in five starts and seems destined to finish in the middle of the pack.

6. Mubtaahij (Christophe Soumillon, 20-1): Irish import won at Dubai and will be the wise guy’s pick but these foreigners never seem to run well here. Should be able to get the distance.

7. El Kabeir (Calvin Borel, 30-1): Seems to be going backward and is a step below these. Borel always seems to make some noise but even he seems to be near the end of his great career.

8. Dortmund (Martin Garcia, 3-1): The giant colt, a son of Big Brown, enters the race not only undefeated in six career starts but with gritty victories in his last three outings including the Santa Anita Derby where he lost his shoe at the start and still won by 4½ lengths. His biggest drawback is the fact he likes to run from the front and there is better early speed in here which could cause the Bob Baffert charge to alter strategy.

9. Bolo (Rafael Bejarano, 30-1): Finished third to Dortmund in last two starts and is trained by Carla Gaines who looks to become the first female conditioner to win the Derby. Expected to be better on the turf.

10. Firing Line (Gary Stevens, 15-1): Stevens returned from retirement in 2013 and will try to win the Derby at age 52. Firing Line rolled in the Sunland Derby and if you like Dortmund you have to believe this one can pull the upset.

11. Stanford (Florent Geroux, 30-1): Stanford was scratched Thursday afternoon and replaced by No. 21 Frammento.

12. International Star (Miguel Mena, 15-1): Has won three straight and earned the most qualifying points in the field but his lone run at Churchill Downs was a stinker as was his lone Grade I event.

13. Itsaknockout (Luis Saez, 30-1): Will serve as hunch bet on the day of the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight; finished second in the Florida Derby but was moved to first after winner, Upstart, was disqualified.

14. Keen Ice (Kent Desormeaux, 50-1): Just 1-for-7 lifetime but his closing style gives him an outside shot to make a bit of noise in the deep stretch if he’s not too far back by then.

15. Frosted (Joel Rosario, 15-1): Tapit colt will take some money at the windows but his best races have been at New York and the Wood field was soft. Does have closing ability if a speed duel develops.

16. War Story (Joe Talamo, 50-1): Tends to start slowly which is a death-knell in a big field. Speed figures are also far behind the top choices.

17. Mr. Z (Ramon Vazquez, 50-1): Highly-touted yearling but he hasn’t won since his debut 12 races back and is a proven notch below the top contenders.

18. American Pharoah (Victor Espinoza, 5-2): Some questioned the soft field and fractions in the Rebel win but he came back to crush a good group in the Arkansas Derby that was more impressive than anything that Dortmund has ran. Bob Baffert trainee is not only the choice here but his dynamic works also make one feel that he is in such razor-sharp form that he is a legitimate Triple Crown threat.

19. Upstart (Jose Ortiz, 15-1): A true contender at a nice price and one has to like the fact that he breaks just outside of the favorite. Upstart ran wide the entire Florida Derby finishing second, has never been worse than third in seven career outings and could mount a big charge down the stretch.

20. Far Right (Mike Smith, 30-1): Had a successful meet at Oaklawn but was no match for American Pharoah in last outing, the Arkansas Derby, despite finishing second. Always tries hard so he is a threat to hit the board. How about an 18-19-20 trifecta?

21. Frammento (Corey Nakatani , 50-1): Drew into the field after Stanford was scratched. Decided longshot with no speed figures to merit consideration but trainer Nick Zito likes to have an entry in this race.

Also Eligible: Tale of Verve (Brian Hernandez Jr., 50-1).

Picks: 1. American Pharoah. 2. Upstart. 3. Dortmund. 4. Firing Line.

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