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**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2015, 01:21 PM

Four NBA teams to be wary of backing this postseason

The Washington Wizards, Dallas Mavericks, Toronto Raptors and the Los Angeles Clippers are teams to be wary of when making playoff wagers this post season.

These four teams are not only the worst playoffs teams against the spread, some were just plain the worst, starting with the Wizards.

Washington ended the season tied for the worst ATS record in the NBA at 33-46-3 ATS. However, their opponent in the first round, the Raptors, were not much better at 37-44-1 ATS.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks and Clippers, who compiled 50 and 56 wins respectively this season, could never quite meet books expectations. The Mavs posted the NBA's sixth worst ATS record at 36-44-2 ATS (and take on one of the best bets in Houston in the first round), while the Clippers went 37-44-1 ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2015, 01:25 PM

NBA Playoffs matchup results: Updating seeds and analysis

BULLS DEFEAT HAWKS, CLINCH NO. 3 SEED: The Bulls had Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson on the bench in the second half, but still managed a push as the Hawks had no interest in playing starters to the bone. They played starters no more than nine minutes and the Bulls took the victory.

With the win, the Bulls secure the No. 3 seed and clinch a first-round meeting with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have a tough, gritty approach and size inside. This will be an ugly, ugly series but that's the kind that Chicago wants. It avoids the Wizards, who bested them in the first round last year and were a nightmare matchup. They handled Milwaukee in the regular season and Pau Gasol, in particular, had a field day.

Notably, it also moves Chicago into a second-round bracket with the Cleveland Cavaliers. You get the sense that Chicago wanted to see its old friend LeBron for a fourth time, this time with a full and healthy roster. Knock on wood.

Chicago hosts Milwaukee in Game 1 of the NBA playoffs first-round series on Saturday.

RAPTORS TO FACE WIZARDS: The Bulls' win moves the Raptors to the fourth seed, which is just fine with them. It gives them a matchup with Washington, which they swept in the regular season and keeps them out of Cleveland's bracket.

The Raptors have already started feuding with Paul Pierce who eliminated them last year. John Wall vs. Kyle Lowry is All-Star vs. All-Star, and the bigs inside match up well, too. It will come down to whether Toronto's defense can stop the Wizards' inept offense or if the Raptors' terrific offense gets the best of Washington's sound defense.

The Raptors host the Washington Wizards for Game 1 on Saturday.

HOUSTON ROCKETS WIN SOUTHWEST DIVISION, SECURE NO. 2 SEED: The Rockets were the sixth seed five days ago. On Wednesday, they improbably climbed all the way up to the second seed with a win and the Spurs' loss. They destroyed the short-handed Jazz, never letting them in it for a minute.

With the Spurs' loss, Houston clinched the Southwest Division, and earned the tiebreaker over the Clippers. The Rockets will host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 this weekend. Houston won the season series 3-1.

It's an intriguing matchup with Rajon Rondo likely matching up with James Harden for long stretches, and a shorter Terrence Jones facing Dirk Nowitzki. Tyson Chandler vs. Dwight Howard will be intense as well. Chandler Parsons plays the team that let him go in free agency.

It's a remarkable accomplishment for Houston, winning the toughest division in basketball in a season in which they were without Dwight Howard for most of the year, and without other key players for long stretches. You wonder if this tilted the MVP race.

PELICANS SOAR TO 8TH SEED: It was an impossible task: Beat the defending champions, who weren't resting starters and were motivated to win. New Orleans had to have this game, with OKC winning. A loss to the champs, and they were going on vacation.

Instead, they delivered. The defensive energy was through the roof, the offense was clicking, everyone contributed, and in the end, their superstar delivered. Anthony Davis finished with 31 points, 13 boards, three rebounds and the game-clinching block. A phenomenal performance for New Orleans, which had to dig out of injuries, while playing in the toughest division in basketball.

They clinch the 8th seed, and will travel to face the No. 1 overall seed Golden State Warriors on Saturday.

WESTBROOK NOT ENOUGH, THUNDER ELIMINATED: Russell Westbrook did everything he could with 34 first-half points to go with six rebounds and four assists. He carried the team as much as he could without Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. But it wasn't enough. OKC lost control of its destiny over the past two weeks, and couldn't recover.

Westbrook won the scoring title, which he later told reporters meant "shit" to him. The Pelicans' win eliminated the Thunder, who miss the playoffs for the first time in six years. Lot of questions for OKC going into the summer. Kevin Durant's injury, his contract status for next summer, the rest of the roster, Scott Brooks, everyone.

But how do you make major changes for missing the playoffs in THIS Western Conference?

**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2015, 01:28 PM

Pelicans on facing Warriors: 'Let's go ahead and get this scrimmage'

So how did they celebrate this momentous occasion?

With some dancing of course.

Yes, that is Monty Williams showing off his dance moves.

Williams didn't just dance, he also gave his team a moving speech that congratulated their success and also acknowledged the road ahead.

"First of all I want to to tell you guys that I love you. This is why I push. This is why we coach this way. This is why we pray. Because you never know. We didn't give up. Three weeks ago we had that conversation (points at Anthony Davis). Everybody counted us out, right? We were three games out. Look at us now. This is why you never give in. This is why we work like we work. You never give up."

After Williams was done, knowing that the Pelicans will be facing the Warriors in the first round, a voice in the background shouted out, “Let's go ahead and get this scrimmage.” To which Quincy Pondexter added, “Shirts and skins scrimmage,”

This was all in reference to last week, when the Warriors called their game against New Orleans a "scrimmage." This angered the Pelicans at the time and seems to be still fueling them. Golden State said they were just joking but the comment has served as a motivation factor for the Pelicans.

New Orleans will face an uphill battle trying to beat the Warriors and will need all of the help that they can get to win. If a "scrimmage" comment helped push them into the postseason, perhaps it can actually help them in the playoffs.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2015, 01:31 PM

Dwight Howard calls Chandler Parsons 'the enemy'

After spending his first three seasons with the Houston Rockets, Chandler Parsons signed a massive three-year $46 million dollar contract with the Dallas Mavericks last summer. It was tough decision for Parsons to leave Houston as he was a fan favorite and is still friends with many of the Rockets.

But now that the Mavs are facing the Rockets in the first round, Dwight Howard isn't looking at Parsons as a friend.

He is looking at him as the enemy.

From CBS Houston:

“He's the enemy,” Dwight Howard said of Parsons. “We're still going to be friends and we're still going to kick it in the summer, but right now, him and his team are trying to end our season. And that's our mentality – we're not going to let anybody end our season, so we've got to go out there and dominate from the first game and send a message.”

Howard has rarely been known to talk trash but if he is entering this series with this mentality, the Mavericks may be in some serious trouble.

Amazingly, the Parsons playing his former team is just one of the many entertaining storylines in this series. Jason Terry will be facing the team he won a championship with in 2011, the in-state Texas rivalry and of course there should be some drama between Mark Cuban and Daryl Morey.

The series starts Saturday night and if Howard of all people is already talking trash it should be a very entertaining first round in Texas.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2015, 07:30 PM

Playoff Zig-Zag Theory

April 16, 2015

In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs. The premise is simple: ‘Play On’ a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.

The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.

How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised.

Here are pointspread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2014.

Game On, Dude

Overall: 786-693-37 (53.1%)
Game Two: 195-153-13 (54.7%)
Game Three: 195-159-6 (55.1%)
Game Four: 159-163-8 (49.4%)
Game Five: 128-121-6 (51.4%)
Game Six: 79-70-2 (53.0%)
Game Seven: 30-27-2 (52.6%)

The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game Three where they become a better than 55% point spread play on the blind.

Burn Baby Burn

Like all things that are popular, though, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.

A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the odds makers has seen the NBA Zig Zags go up in smoke since 2001.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 14 years (2001-2014), going 475-444-27– or 51.6% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.

That’s a decline of nearly 4 full percentage points. Talk about a buzz kill.

Round ‘Em Up

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared during each round of the NBA Playoffs since 1991:

Round One: 377-330-21 (53.3%)
Round Two: 235-205-7 (53.4%)
Round Three: 116-108-6 (51.8%)
Round Four: 58-50-3 (53.7%)

While it appears there is hold no discernable edge between rounds, it should be noted that home teams off a double-digit loss in Round Two have delivered the largest profits, as they are 80-51-3.

Planting The Seed

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared by seed during NBA Playoffs:

No. 1 Seeds: 110-101-5 (52.1%)
No. 2 Seeds: 107-86-4 (55.4%)
No. 3 Seeds: 91-80-9 (53.2%)
No. 4 Seeds: 79-71-1 (52.7%)
No. 5 Seeds: 72-68-2 (51.4%)
No. 6 Seeds: 62-55-2 (53.0%)
No. 7 Seeds: 42-61-4 (40.8%)
No. 8 Seeds: 62-44-5 (58.5%)

Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds.

Note the disparate results that abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.

Rocky Mountain High

So when is it we can still expect to catch the best possible result when firing up with these with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?

Simple. Look to back double-digit underdogs when they are off a SU and ATS loss. They’ve stood the test of time, going 33-18-2 ATS since 1991. That’s a pretty high 64.7% winning percentage when you think about it.

So instead of zigging when you should be zagging, check out the optimum roles outlined above... and enjoy the games.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2015, 07:32 PM

Opening Series Odds

April 16, 2015

Betting Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag

Home Team listed first - Best of 7 Games (2-2-1-1-1)
(Opening Odds in parentheses)

Eastern Conference - First Round

Atlanta vs. Brooklyn
Hawks (-1500)
Nets (+800)

Cleveland vs. Boston
Cavaliers (-3500)
Celtics (+1500)

Chicago vs. Milwaukee
Bulls (-750)
Bucks (+500)

Toronto vs. Washington
Raptors (-200)
Wizards (+165)

Western Conference - First Round

Golden State vs. New Orleans
Warriors (-6000)
Pelicans (+2000)

Houston vs. Dallas
Rockets (-380)
Mavericks (+300)

L.A. Clippers vs. San Antonio
Clippers (+140)
Spurs (-165)

Memphis vs. Portland
Grizzlies (-165)
Trail Blazers (+130)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2015, 07:33 PM

NBA Finals Best Bets

April 16, 2015

A full list of NBA Championship odds at Sportsbook.ag can be found here:

The NBA playoffs begin on Saturday and that means that it’s time to take a look at who could be hosting the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy in June:

Golden State Warriors (+220) - The Warriors and Cavaliers are the two favorites to win the NBA title this season, getting pretty favorable odds at +220. Golden State, however, was arguably deserving of being the lone favorite to win it all this season. This Warriors team won the ultra competitive Western Conference by 11 games and finished the season with a point differential of +10.1. Not only did Golden State win games, but it was absolutely dominant while doing so. The Warriors are also nearly impossible to defeat on their home floor, going 39-2 at Oracle Arena this season. PG Stephen Curry (23.8 PPG, 7.7 APG, 4.3 RPG, 2.0 SPG) and SG Klay Thompson (21.7 PPG, 1.1 SPG) are guys that can get so hot that they can win the Warriors a game in a quick five-minute stretch. This team is on a mission and as long as C Andrew Bogut (6.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG) can stay healthy, there isn’t much that can get in its way.

San Antonio Spurs (+400) - The Spurs are the team with the best chance to knock off the Warriors. San Antonio closed out the regular season with nine wins in its final 10 games. The defending champs always turn it on when it matters most and they will be hungry to prove that they are not over the hill. SF Kawhi Leonard (16.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.3 SPG) is one of the most dangerous weapons in the entire league, capable of lighting it up offensively or locking down his opponent on the defensive end. He will do whatever he can to win this team another championship and veterans PF Tim Duncan (13.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 BPG), PG Tony Parker (14.4 PPG, 4.9 APG) and SG Manu Ginobili (10.5 PPG, 4.2 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG) are still more than capable of taking over on any given night. Getting the defending champions at 4-to-1 is an excellent value.

Chicago Bulls (+1500) - The Bulls are one of the best teams in the league, but they have really suffered a ton of injuries this season. PG Derrick Rose (17.7 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.2 RPG) returned from a torn meniscus on Apr. 8, but he is dealing with soreness in his knees heading into the postseason. He is the biggest question mark for this team, as Chicago has a great chance of winning it all if he is able to stay on his feet. The Bulls would be able to stay competitive without Rose in the lineup, but they would not be able to win a championship. At +1500 this team is worth taking a chance on because Rose has played in five straight games heading into the postseason and insists that his knees are feeling fine.

Atlanta Hawks (+1600) - The Hawks finished the season with 60 wins and were dominant in the Eastern Conference throughout the year. They also played very well when facing the Western Conference powerhouses, yet this team is still getting ridiculous +1600 odds. Atlanta is a very well balanced team and played flawless basketball on both ends of the floor this season. The Hawks put up 102.5 PPG (10th in NBA) thanks to 25.7 APG (2nd in NBA) and also allowed just 97.1 PPG (5th in NBA). They went 35-6 when playing at home this season and it will not be easy for opponents to steal a game in Atlanta. This team is a very good value pick and people should not hesitate to make a small play here

**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2015, 07:36 PM

Playoff Cheat Sheet - East

April 16, 2015

Western Conference

(1) Atlanta vs. (8) Brooklyn

Series Price - Hawks (-1500) Nets (+800)

Overall Record

Atlanta 60-22 SU, 51-31 ATS
Brooklyn 38-44 SU, 39-41-2 ATS

Home Record

Atlanta 35-6 SU, 26-15 ATS
Brooklyn 19-22 SU, 16-23-2 ATS

Road Record

Atlanta 25-16 SU, 25-16 ATS
Brooklyn 19-22 SU, 23-18 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Atlanta 42-39-1 (20-20-1, 22-19)
Brooklyn 36-45-1 (19-21-1, 17-24)

2014-15 Meetings

Dec. 5, 2014 - Atlanta 98 at Brooklyn 75 (Hawks -1, Under 201)
Jan 28, 2015 - Brooklyn 102 at Atlanta 113 (Hawks -14, Over 192)
Apr 4, 2015 - Brooklyn 99 at Atlanta 131 (Hawks -10.5, Over 206)
Apr 8, 2015 - Atlanta 114 at Brooklyn 111 (Hawks +4.5, Over 204.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Atlanta

2013-14 - Lost Eastern Conference 1st Round (Indiana, 3-4)
2012-13 - Lost Eastern Conference 1st Round (Indiana, 2-4)
2011-12 - Lost Eastern Conference 1st Round (Boston, 2-4)
2010-11 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Chicago, 2-4)
2009-10 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Orlando, 0-4)

Brooklyn

2013-14 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Miami, 1-4)
2012-13 - Lost Eastern Conference 1st Round (Chicago, 3-4)
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

(2) Cleveland vs. (7) Boston

Series Price - Cavaliers (-3500) Celtics (+1500)

Overall Record

Cleveland 53-29 SU, 39-43 ATS
Boston 40-42 SU, 49-32-1 ATS

Home Record

Cleveland 31-10 SU, 21-20 ATS
Boston 21-20 SU, 22-18-1 ATS

Road Record

Cleveland 22-19 SU, 18-23 ATS
Boston 19-22 SU, 27-14 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Cleveland 32-47-3 (14-25-2, 18-22-1)
Boston 43-39 (23-18, 20-21)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 14, 2014 - Cleveland 122 at Boston 121 (Cavaliers -6, Over 208.5)
Mar 3, 2015 - Boston 79 at Cleveland 110 (Cavaliers -11, Under 210)
Apr 10, 2015 - Boston 99 at Cleveland 90 (Celtics +6, Under 208.5)
Apr 12, 2015 - Cleveland 78 at Boston 117 (Celtics -10.5, Under 197.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Cleveland

2013-14 - No Playoffs
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Boston, 2-4)

Boston

2013-14 - No Playoffs
2012-13 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (New York, 2-4)
2011-12 - Lost Eastern Conference Finals (Miami, 3-4)
2010-11 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Miami, 1-4)
2009-10 - Lost NBA Finals (L.A. Lakers, 3-4)

(3) Chicago vs. (6) Milwaukee

Series Price - Bulls (-750) Bucks (+500)

Overall Record

Chicago 50-32 SU, 39-43 ATS
Milwaukee 41-41 SU, 45-35-2 ATS

Home Record

Chicago 27-14 SU, 19-22 ATS
Milwaukee 23-18 SU, 19-21-1 ATS

Road Record

Chicago 23-18 SU, 20-21 ATS
Milwaukee 18-23 SU, 26-14-1 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)
Chicago 41-39-2 (25-16, 16-23-2)
Milwaukee 37-45 (17-24, 20-21)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 5, 2014 - Chicago 95 at Milwaukee 86 (Bulls -5, Under 191)
Jan 10, 2015 - Milwaukee 87 at Chicago 95 (Bulls -6, Under 194)
Feb 23, 2015 - Milwaukee 71 at Chicago 87 (Bulls -7, Under 193)
Apr 1, 2015 - Chicago 91 at Milwaukee 95 (Bucks +5, Under 191.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Chicago

2013-14 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Washington, 1-4)
2012-13 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Miami, 1-4)
2011-12 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Philadelphia, 2-4)
2010-11 - Lost Eastern Conference Finals (Miami, 1-4)
2009-10 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Cleveland, 1-4)

Milwaukee

2013-14 - No Playoffs
2012-13 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Miami, 0-4)
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Atlanta, 3-4)

(4) Toronto vs. (5) Washington

Series Price - Raptors (-200) Wizards (+165)

Overall Record

Toronto 49-33 SU, 37-44-1 ATS
Washington 46-36 SU, 34-47-1 ATS

Home Record

Toronto 27-14 SU, 17-24 ATS
Washington 29-12 SU, 17-23-1 ATS

Road Record

Toronto 22-19 SU, 20-20-1 ATS
Washington 17-24 SU, 17-24 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Toronto 44-37-1 (18-23, 26-14)
Washington 38-41-3 (21-19-1, 17-22-2)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 7, 2014 Washington 84 at Toronto 103 (Raptors -4, Under 195.5)
Jan 31, 2015 Toronto 120 at Washington 116 (Raptors +5, Over 203.5)
Feb 11, 2015 Washington 93 at Toronto 95 (Raptors -5, Under 196)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Toronto

2013-14 - Lost Eastern Conference First Round (Brooklyn, 3-4)
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

Washington

2013-14 - Lost Eastern Conference Semifinals (Indiana, 2-4)
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

**StarDust Bum** · 04-16-2015, 07:37 PM

Playoff Cheat Sheet - West

April 16, 2015

Eastern Conference

(1) Golden State vs. (8) New Orleans

Series Price - Warriors (-6000) Pelicans (+2000)

Overall Record

Golden State 67-15 SU, 46-34-2 ATS
New Orleans 45-37 SU, 46-36 ATS

Home Record

Golden State 39-2 SU, 20-21 ATS
New Orleans 28-13 SU, 25-16 ATS

Road Record

Golden State 28-13 SU, 20-20-1 ATS
New Orleans 17-24 SU, 21-20 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Golden State 39-43 (22-19, 17-24)
New Orleans 42-37-3 (24-17, 18-20-3)

2014-15 Meetings

Dec 4, 2014 - New Orleans 85, Golden State 112 (Warriors -9.5, Under 206.5)
Dec 14, 2014 - Golden State 128, New Orleans 122 OT (Pelicans +6.5, Over 205.5)
Mar 20, 2015 - New Orleans 96, Golden State 112 (Warriors -14, Over 201.5)
Apr 7, 2015 - Golden State 100, New Orleans 103 (Pelicans +4.5, Under 206.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Golden State

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (L.A. Clippers, 3-4)
2012-13 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (San Antonio, 2-4)
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

New Orleans

2013-14 - No Playoffs
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (L.A. Lakers, 2-4)
2009-10 - No Playoffs

(2) Houston vs. (7) Dallas

Series Price - Rockets (-380) Mavericks (+300)

Overall Record

Houston 56-26 SU, 48-34 ATS
Dallas 50-32 SU, 35-44-3 ATS

Home Record

Houston 30-11 SU, 26-15 ATS
Dallas 27-14 SU, 15-23-3 ATS

Road Record

Houston 26-15 SU, 22-19 ATS
Dallas 23-18 SU, 20-21 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Houston 40-41-1 (19-22, 21-19-1)
Dallas 39-43 (21-20, 18-23)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 22, 2014 - Dallas 92, Houston 95 (Rockets +4, Under 205)
Jan 28, 2015 - Dallas 94, Houston 99 (Rockets -4, Under 210.5)
Feb 20, 2015 - Houston 100, Dallas 111 (Mavericks -2.5, Under 212.5)
Apr 2, 2015 - Houston 108, Dallas 101 (Rockets +2.5, Under 210.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Houston

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Portland, 2-4)
2012-13 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Oklahoma City, 2-4)
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

Dallas

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (San Antonio, 3-4)
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Oklahoma City, 0-4)
2010-11 - Won NBA Championship (Miami, 4-2)
2009-10 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (San Antonio, 2-4)

(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) San Antonio

Series Price - Spurs (-175) Clippers (+150)

Overall Record

L.A. Clippers 56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS
San Antonio 55-27 SU, 41-39-2 ATS

Home Record

L.A. Clippers 30-11 SU, 16-25 ATS
San Antonio 33-8 SU, 21-18-2 ATS

Road Record

L.A. Clippers 26-15 SU, 22-19 ATS
San Antonio 22-19 SU, 20-21 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

L.A. Clippers 38-43-1 (15-26, 23-17-1)
San Antonio 39-42-1 (23-18, 16-24-1)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 10, 2014 - San Antonio 89, L.A. Clippers 85 (Spurs +1.5, Under 202)
Dec 22, 2014 - L.A. Clippers 118, San Antonio 125 (Spurs -1, Over 203.5)
Jan 31, 2015 - L.A. Clippers 105, San Antonio 85 (Clippers +5, Under 205)
Feb 19, 2015 - San Antonio 115, L.A. Clippers 119 (Clippers +2.5, Over 202)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

L.A. Clippers

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (Oklahoma City, 2-4)
2012-13 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Memphis, 2-4)
2011-12 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (San Antonio, 0-4)
2010-11 - No Playoffs
2009-10 - No Playoffs

San Antonio

2013-14 - Won NBA Championship (Miami, 4-1)
2012-13 - Lost NBA Championship (Miami, 4-3)
2011-12 - Lost Western Conference Finals (Oklahoma City, 2-4)
2010-11 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Memphis, 2-4)
2009-10 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (Phoenix, 0-4)

(4) Portland vs. (5) Memphis

Series Price - Grizzlies (-155) Blazers (+130)

Overall Record

Portland 51-31 SU, 40-41-1 ATS
Memphis 55-27 SU, 41-40-1 ATS

Home Record

Portland 32-9 SU, 22-18-1 ATS
Memphis 31-10 SU, 21-19-1 ATS

Road Record

Portland 19-22 SU, 18-23 ATS
Memphis 24-17 SU, 20-21 ATS

Total Record (Home-Away)

Portland 39-41-2 (15-24-2, 24-17)
Memphis 35-44-3 (13-25-3, 22-19)

2014-15 Meetings

Nov 28, 2014 - Memphis 112, Portland 99 (Grizzlies +3.5, Over 194)
Jan 17, 2015 - Portland 98, Memphis 102 (Grizzlies -2.5, Over 197.5)
Feb 22, 2015 - Memphis 98, Portland 92 (Grizzlies +1.5, Under 193)
Mar 21, 2015 - Portland 86, Memphis 97 (Grizzlies -3, Under 192.5)

Recent Playoff Results (2009-2014)

Portland

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (San Antonio, 1-4)
2012-13 - No Playoffs
2011-12 - No Playoffs
2010-11 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Dallas, 2-4)
2009-10 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Phoenix, 2-4)

Memphis

2013-14 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (Oklahoma City, 3-4)
2012-13 - Lost Western Conference Finals (San Antonio, 0-4)
2011-12 - Lost Western Conference 1st Round (L.A. Clippers, 3-4)
2010-11 - Lost Western Conference Semifinals (Oklahoma City, 3-4)
2009-10 - No Playoffs

**StarDust Bum** · 04-17-2015, 02:04 PM

Can underdogs dominate NBA Playoffs betting like last year?

NBA betting underdogs were unleashed in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs last year, going an incredible 32-19-1 ATS (with one pick’em game) and covering the spread at a near 63 percent rate.

And that was the story for most of the 2014 postseason as well, as NBA underdogs finished the playoffs with a 52-36-1 ATS mark (57.8 percent). That Round 1 trend bled over into the conference semifinals, where underdogs finished 14-9 ATS, then went south in the conference finals (3-9 ATS) before showing up a bit in the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs (3-2 ATS).

So, will basketball bettors see similar success blindly betting the underdog when the 2015 NBA Playoffs start Saturday?

“With the Western Conference, it’s a lot closer than the Eastern Conference this year,” Mark Tomita, assistant manager at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas tells Covers. “The West looks pretty wide open this year.”

Tomita does expect the public to come in heavy on the notable favorites, like Golden State and Cleveland, but says early money has already taken San Antonio, which is a 1.5-point pup at the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.

As for which playoff teams hold the most underdog value, here are the top NBA underdog bets this season:

New Orleans Pelicans - 26-13 ATS
Boston Celtics - 31-17 ATS
Milwaukee Bucks - 29-20-1 ATS
Atlanta Hawks – 12-9-1 ATS
Houston Rockets - 16-12 ATS
Memphis Grizzlies – 13-10 ATS

In a cruel twist of this trend, NBA bettors should beware of double-digit NBA Playoff underdogs. Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, when Round 1 went to a best-of-seven format from best-of-five, double-digit dogs are just 29-42-3 ATS (6-68 SU) in the postseason - covering just 41 percent of the time.

There are a pair of double-digit underdogs on the board for this weekend’s games: New Orleans +11 at Golden State, and Boston +11 at Cleveland. Those two teams, as shown above, just so happen to be the top underdog bets in the NBA this season.

Underdog-heavy results are a double-edged sword for sportsbooks. While the general public gravitates towards the big-name favorites, the sharp bettors tend to take the points in the NBA Playoffs. This is especially true with some of the earlier weekday postseason time slots – the 7 p.m. ET starts – which are on at 4 p.m. in Nevada.

These weekday afternoon games in Las Vegas don’t get much walk-in traffic from tourists and conference goers, which leaves the books to go one-on-one with the wiseguys in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs, with little money from the betting public to limit liability.

“The midweek people aren't getting engaged until after 5 p.m. and it makes the late games much more attractive, since they can come in and place a bet and have a beer,” Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports from MGM properties in Las Vegas, told Covers last April. “That leaves us going head-to-head with sharps in the early games. So if the underdogs are covering in those early midweek games, it’s not good for us.”

Last year’s early underdog trend did pull a fair share of public bettors away from the favorites. Rood said that NBA regular season games will see an 80/20 split of money on the favorite and underdog but that difference drops to 75/25 in the postseason.

As for the regular season giving any hints of how the playoffs could lean, oddsmakers did their job handicapping the games. Favorites and underdogs split, each going 601-601-27 ATS on the year.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-17-2015, 02:05 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 18

Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors

Game 701-702
April 18, 2015 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington Wizard
117.269
Toronto Raptors
119.039
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto Raptors
by 2
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto Raptors
by 4 1/2
193 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington Wizard
(+4 1/2); Over

New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors

Game 703-704
April 18, 2015 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans Pelic
119.261
Golden State Warr
133.117
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State Warr
by 14
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State Warr
by 11 1/2
205
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State Warr
(-11 1/2); Under

Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls

Game 705-706
April 18, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee Bucks
125.308
Chicago Bulls
126.186
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Bulls
by 1
192
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Bulls
by 8
186 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee Bucks
(+8); Over

Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets

Game 707-708
April 18, 2015 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas Mavericks
122.229
Houston Rockets
132.694
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston Rockets
by 10 1/2
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston Rockets
by 5
210 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston Rockets
(-5); Under

Sunday, April 19

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Game 709-710
April 19, 2015 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston Celtics
116.254
Cleveland Cavalie
130.643
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland Cavalie
by 14 1/2
196
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland Cavalie
by 11
203 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland Cavalie
(-11); Under

Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks

Game 711-712
April 19, 2015 @ 5:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brooklyn Nets
114.974
Atlanta Hawks
126.878
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta Hawks
by 12
192
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta Hawks
by 10
202
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta Hawks
(-10); Under

Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies

Game 713-714
April 19, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland Trail Bl
114.728
Memphis Grizzlies
117.515
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis Grizzlies
by 3
195
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis Grizzlies
by 4 1/2
188 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland Trail Bl
(+4 1/2); Over

San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers

Game 715-716
April 19, 2015 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio Spurs
132.705
Los Angeles Clipp
130.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio Spurs
by 2
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles Clipp
by 1 1/2
205 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio Spurs
(+1 1/2); Over

**StarDust Bum** · 04-17-2015, 02:06 PM

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 18

Might update on gameday

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (46 - 36) at TORONTO (49 - 33) - 4/18/2015, 12:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 7-4 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (45 - 37) at GOLDEN STATE (67 - 15) - 4/18/2015, 3:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 8-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (41 - 41) at CHICAGO (50 - 32) - 4/18/2015, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 7-5 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (50 - 32) at HOUSTON (56 - 26) - 4/18/2015, 9:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 6-6 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 6-6 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, April 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (40 - 42) at CLEVELAND (53 - 29) - 4/19/2015, 3:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-5 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-4 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BROOKLYN (38 - 44) at ATLANTA (60 - 22) - 4/19/2015, 5:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 7-4 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-4 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PORTLAND (51 - 31) at MEMPHIS (55 - 27) - 4/19/2015, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 8-3 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 9-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN ANTONIO (55 - 27) at LA CLIPPERS (56 - 26) - 4/19/2015, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 6-5 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 6-5 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 04-17-2015, 02:06 PM

NBA

Saturday, April 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. TORONTO
Washington is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing Washington

3:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. GOLDEN STATE
New Orleans is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Golden State
Golden State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing New Orleans
Golden State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games

7:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CHICAGO
Milwaukee is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

9:30 PM
DALLAS vs. HOUSTON
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas

**StarDust Bum** · 04-17-2015, 02:07 PM

NBA

Saturday, April 18

Derrick Rose, Chicago - Prob Sat

Rose is expected to be ready for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against the Bucks despite a knee injury.

Important stat you need to know for Bucks-Bulls

No team in the NBA playoffs have been called on more personal fouls per game (22.1) than the Milwaukee Bucks. Unless the Bucks can improve their discipline, the Chicago Bulls will certainly exploit the trips to the free throw line.

The Bulls ended the regular season third in the NBA in both free throws made per game (19.7) and percentage of points from the charity strip (19.6 percent).

In their four contests against one another this season, the Bulls have shot 77.8 percent from the free throw line while averaging 20.3 points from the free looks.

Chicago is currently -7.5 for Game 1 Saturday.

Rockets' perimeter game vital against Mavs

The Houston Rockets head into the NBA Playoffs as the top perimeter team in the NBA. No team has scored more points per game (34.1) or had more of their offense (32.8 percent) come from beyond the arc than the Rockets in the regular season.

And there is literally no better opponent for the Rockets to use this shooting advantage than the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs have allowed more points per game from downtown (27.1) and ranked twenty-ninth in percentage of points against from three-point range (26.5 percent).

If this season is any indication, the Mavericks have work to do. In four games against Dallas this season, Houston hit 35.1 percent of their three's while averaging 39 points per game.

The Rockets are currently -5.5 with a total of 210 for Game 1 Saturday.

Announcement

The Bum's National Basketbaqll Association Playoff Thread News, Notes, Trends, Etc.

The Bum's National Basketbaqll Association Playoff Thread News, Notes, Trends, Etc.

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