Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:06 AM

CBB ATS

CBB > (823) MICHIGAN ST@ (824) DUKE | 04/04/2015 - 06:05 PM
Play ON DUKE using the against the spread in Road games in non-conference games
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+7.9 units)

CBB MONEYLINE

CBB > (821) WISCONSIN@ (822) KENTUCKY | 04/04/2015 - 08:45 PM
Play ON WISCONSIN using the money line in All games when playing on a neutral court
The record is 14 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.4 units)

CBB > (823) MICHIGAN ST@ (824) DUKE | 04/04/2015 - 06:05 PM
Play ON MICHIGAN ST using the money line in All games in a NCAA tournament games
The record is 39 Wins and 16 Losses for the since 1992 (+23.4 units)

CBB FIRST HALF

CBB > (823) MICHIGAN ST@ (824) DUKE | 04/04/2015 - 06:05 PM
Play ON MICHIGAN ST in the first half in All games in all tournament games
The record is 18 Wins and 5 Losses for the last three seasons (+12.5 units)

CBB > (821) WISCONSIN@ (822) KENTUCKY | 04/04/2015 - 08:45 PM
Play AGAINST KENTUCKY in the first half in Road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games
The record is 2 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-10.1 units)

CBB TOTALS

CBB > (823) MICHIGAN ST@ (824) DUKE | 04/04/2015 - 06:05 PM
Play UNDER DUKE on the total in All games in all tournament games
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the this season (+8 units)

CBB > (821) WISCONSIN@ (822) KENTUCKY | 04/04/2015 - 08:45 PM
Play UNDER KENTUCKY on the total in All games after a non-conference game
The record is 3 Overs and 14 Unders for the this season (+10.7 units)

CBB TOP POWERLINE

CBB > (823) MICHIGAN ST @ (824) DUKE | 04/04/2015 - 06:05 PM
Line: DUKE -5 BTB PowerLine: DUKE -12
Edge On: DUKE (7)

CBB > (821) WISCONSIN @ (822) KENTUCKY | 04/04/2015 - 08:45 PM
Line: KENTUCKY -5 BTB PowerLine: KENTUCKY -7
Edge On: KENTUCKY (2)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:10 AM

NHL MONEYLINE

NHL > (13) TORONTO@ (14) BOSTON | 04/04/2015 - 07:05 PM
Play AGAINST TORONTO using the money line in All games in a road game where where the total is 5.5
The record is 5 Wins and 27 Losses for the this season (-22.15 units)

NHL > (1) PHILADELPHIA@ (2) CAROLINA | 04/04/2015 - 01:05 PM
Play AGAINST PHILADELPHIA using the money line in Road games revenging a loss versus opponent
The record is 2 Wins and 17 Losses for the this season (-13.95 units)

NHL > (23) CALGARY@ (24) EDMONTON | 04/04/2015 - 10:05 PM
Play ON CALGARY using the money line in All games vs. division opponents
The record is 19 Wins and 7 Losses for the this season (+15.8 units)

NHL > (3) PITTSBURGH@ (4) COLUMBUS | 04/04/2015 - 02:05 PM
Play ON COLUMBUS using the money line in All games after a 3 game unbeaten streak
The record is 9 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+10.55 units)

NHL > (7) WASHINGTON@ (8) OTTAWA | 04/04/2015 - 07:05 PM
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using the money line in All games after a 3 game unbeaten streak
The record is 1 Wins and 8 Losses for the this season (-9.7 units)

NHL > (19) DALLAS@ (20) NASHVILLE | 04/04/2015 - 08:05 PM
Play AGAINST DALLAS using the money line in All games vs. division opponents
The record is 6 Wins and 20 Losses for the this season (-14.2 units)

NHL PUCKLINE

NHL > (13) TORONTO@ (14) BOSTON | 04/04/2015 - 07:05 PM
Play AGAINST TORONTO using the in All games in a road game where where the total is 5.5
The record is 5 Wins and 27 Losses for the this season (-22.15 units)

NHL > (1) PHILADELPHIA@ (2) CAROLINA | 04/04/2015 - 01:05 PM
Play AGAINST PHILADELPHIA using the in Road games revenging a loss versus opponent
The record is 2 Wins and 17 Losses for the this season (-13.95 units)

NHL > (23) CALGARY@ (24) EDMONTON | 04/04/2015 - 10:05 PM
Play ON CALGARY using the in All games vs. division opponents
The record is 19 Wins and 7 Losses for the this season (+15.8 units)

NHL > (3) PITTSBURGH@ (4) COLUMBUS | 04/04/2015 - 02:05 PM
Play ON COLUMBUS using the in All games after a 3 game unbeaten streak
The record is 9 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+10.55 units)

NHL > (21) SAN JOSE@ (22) ARIZONA | 04/04/2015 - 09:05 PM
Play AGAINST ARIZONA using the in Home games second half of the season
The record is 3 Wins and 18 Losses for the this season (-15.85 units)

NHL > (7) WASHINGTON@ (8) OTTAWA | 04/04/2015 - 07:05 PM
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using the in All games after a 3 game unbeaten streak
The record is 1 Wins and 8 Losses for the this season (-9.7 units)

NHL > (19) DALLAS@ (20) NASHVILLE | 04/04/2015 - 08:05 PM
Play AGAINST DALLAS using the in All games vs. division opponents
The record is 6 Wins and 20 Losses for the this season (-14.2 units)

NHL TOTALS

NHL > (1) PHILADELPHIA@ (2) CAROLINA | 04/04/2015 - 01:05 PM
Play OVER PHILADELPHIA on the total in All games on Saturday games
The record is 29 Overs and 12 Unders for the last two seasons (+17.7 units)

NHL > (19) DALLAS@ (20) NASHVILLE | 04/04/2015 - 08:05 PM
Play UNDER NASHVILLE on the total in Home games on Saturday games
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders for the this season (+8.25 units)

NHL > (3) PITTSBURGH@ (4) COLUMBUS | 04/04/2015 - 02:05 PM
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the total in All games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game
The record is 4 Overs and 14 Unders for the this season (+9.5 units)

NHL > (23) CALGARY@ (24) EDMONTON | 04/04/2015 - 10:05 PM
Play UNDER CALGARY on the total in All games in a road game where where the total is 5.5
The record is 5 Overs and 17 Unders for the this season (+10.65 units)

NHL > (9) NEW JERSEY@ (10) NY RANGERS | 04/04/2015 - 07:05 PM
Play UNDER NEW JERSEY on the total in All games in all games
The record is 22 Overs and 43 Unders for the this season (+16.8 units)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:12 AM

Final Four Betting Outlook

March 30, 2015

The Final Four!

It is a great week for sports fans with the start of baseball, the NBA stretch run, the Final Four and the culmination of the college basketball season next Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana for the national championship. It's clear that it's not the teams the start the season hot, but the ones that get hot when it really matters -- March and April!

Many things happen over the course of a long season. Some teams play great basketball in December and January, only to break down from injuries or run out of steam down the stretch.

For example, North Carolina started 17-4 but as February started the Tar Heels showed vulnerability, losing six of 10. A year ago Syracuse started hot before losing its first game in mid-February. From that point on they struggled to score and win, getting bounced by North Carolina State in the ACC Tournament.

It works the other way, too. A team can have a tough non-conference schedule or need time to work in new pieces, then get hot down the stretch. Last season Michigan State overcame injuries in mid-season before getting healthy - - and hot, ripping through the Big 10 tournament with a 3-0 record both straight up and against the spread.

It’s important to examine how a team played with overall stats, but also in three different sections:

1) Early non-conference play

2) Conference play

3) Tournament time

Two years ago, Miami started 22-3 before the national spotlight and a key injury took a toll, losing in the tourney to Marquette, 71-61. The previous year Missouri started 17-0 before stumbling in midseason, while Villanova won 16 of 17 to start the season, then broke down with injuries and poor play, finishing 3-10 SU and 1-12 ATS.

Kansas always seems to have the spotlight on it. This season they started great, then had some erratic play down the stretch, including losses at Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The previous season the Jayhawks had a late season injury to 7-footer Joel Imbiid (11PPG, 8 RPG), the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, a huge blow.

The Jayhawks may have won the title seven years ago, but nine years ago it was a very different story: The Jayhawks started 20-1, only to go 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread the last nine games. They never made it to the Final Four because of a 64-63 loss to Bucknell as a 13½-point favorite in the first round.

Other times an easy early season schedule, youth, bad coaching, untimely injuries, bad luck, poor team chemistry or a combination of these can cut down a potentially great team. Youth and a loss of its best players toppled Florida after winning back-to-back titles and prevented a North Carolina repeat in 2010.

Duke has seen its title hopes dashed in recent years, a stunning loss to Lehigh as 11-point chalk and last season getting bounced by Mercer, 78-71. This is nothing new. Gonzaga was taken down by Wichita two years ago, and four years ago No. 1 seed Pittsburgh saw its hopes crushed in a loss to Butler, 71-70. A few years ago No. 2 seed Georgetown took itself out of the tournament, blowing a 46-29 lead by trying to stall against Davidson with far too much time left.

It is very easy for sports bettors to look into trends to try and predict the future.

Trends can be helpful if there are reasons to support it. For example, from a betting perspective, what stands out about the last 10 Finals Fours?

2014
Florida 53 -6.5
UConn 63 - -126

Wisconsin 73 - 139
Kentucky 74 -2

2013
Wichita State 68 -131
Louisville 72 - -11

Syracuse 56 - 131
Michigan 61 -2

2012
Ohio State 62 - 3
Kansas 64 - 136

Louisville 61 - 136.5
Kentucky 69 -8

2011
Butler 70 - 3.5
VCU 62 - 133

Kentucky 55 - 131
UConn 56 - +2.5

2010
Butler 52 - 1.5
Michigan State 50 - 125

West Virginia 57 - 130
Duke 78 - -2.5

2009
Michigan State 82 - 135
UConn 73 - 4

North Carolina 83 - 7.5
Villanova 69 - 160

2008
Kansas 84 - 158
North Carolina 66 - 3

UCLA 63 - 135
Memphis 78 - 3

2007
Georgetown 60 - 1
Ohio St. 67 - 130

UCLA 66 - 131
Florida 76 - 3

2006
George Mason 58 - 132
Florida 73 - -6

LSU 45 - -2
UCLA 59 - 123

2005
Louisville 57 - 144
Illiniois 72 - -3

Michigan St. 71 - 153
North Carolina 87 - -2

2004
Georgia Tech 67 - 139
Oklahoma St. 65 - -4

UConn 79 - -2
Duke 78 - 144

2003
Marquette 61 - -4½
Kansas 94 - 153½

Syracuse 95 - 153
Texas 84 - -3

2002
Indiana 73 - 134
Oklahoma 64 -6½

Maryland 97 - 168
Kansas 88 - -1½

What stands out is that it has been the day of the dog. The underdog is 15-9-1 against the number, with 12 dogs winning straight up, including UConn last year. In addition, the games have gone 12-6 to the ‘under’ the last nine years.

You can even make an argument that this would be the right time of the season to take a shot with the ‘dog on the money-line. However, this is where one needs patience, because trends can also be a fool's paradise.

If you go back to the previous three Final Fours before the above content analysis, 1999-01, we find Duke topping Maryland 95-84, Arizona blowing out Michigan State 80-61, Michigan State beating Wisconsin 53-41, Florida topping North Carolina 71-59, UConn beating Ohio State 64-58 and Duke surviving Michigan State 68-62. What stands out is that the favorite won and covered in five of six, for a hefty 5-1 spread record.

Even looking at totals, a similar pattern emerges. The last 13 years the ‘over/under’ has been almost equal, 14-12 ‘under’ in the Final Four. The three years before that the ‘under’ prevailed at a 5-1 clip. All of a sudden, those who look solely at trends as the key to the sports betting kingdom are stuck at close to a .500 winning percentage ATS.

For the record, going back the last 20 years, the ‘under’ is 24-16 in the Final Four, with 21 ‘dogs covering while 18 favorites have gotten the money with one push. Again, trends are worth examining, but there needs to be reasons behind them if you're serious about putting down hard earned money on a side.

Perhaps the most significant stat that stands out is that 16 of the 21 dogs that covered ended up winning the game outright, which shows how competitive and relatively evenly matched the games become when teams get this far in the season.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:13 AM

Final Four Betting Trends

April 1, 2015

NCAA Final Four Out

It’s onward to Indy for the Final Four games.

To put the wraps on the 2015 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to Nap Town this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent, dating back as far as 1991 unless noted otherwise.

FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seeds not favored more than 5 points are 17-8 ATS (Duke, Kentucky and Wisconsin)

#1 Seeds who are conference tourney champs are 4-1 ATS as a dog (Wisconsin)

#1 Seeds who are conference tourney champs are 5-1 ATS off an ATS loss (Kentucky)

ACC teams are 6-1 ATS (Duke)

SEC teams are 0-3-1 ATS (Kentucky)

Big 10 dogs are 3-5-1 ATS (Michigan State and Wisconsin)

Teams off a SU dog win are 5-0-1 ATS (Wisconsin)

Dogs who are 3-0 SUATS last 3 games are 8-17-1 ATS (Michigan State)

Teams with revenge are 3-10 ATS (Michigan State and Wisconsin)

CHAMPIONSHIP NOTES

#1 Seed favs. are 8-2 ATS

#5 or worse Seeds are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS

Favorites of 5 < pts are 12-2 ATS

Favorites who scored 80 > pts in the Final 4 round are 5-1 ATS

Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 2-6 ATS

Dogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 0-5 ATS

SEC teams are 3-1 ATS

ACC teams are 7-3 ATS

Big 10 teams are 0-5 ATS

COACH ME UP

Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is:
65-19 SU and 41-41-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
48-12 SU and 35-25 ATS vs. Big 10
14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS vs. SEC
2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
47-14 SU and 35-27-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
17-10 SU and 13-14 ATS vs. ACC
11-6 SU and 9-7-1 ATS vs. Big 10
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski
1-0 SU and 0-0-1 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Michigan State’s John Tom Izzo is:
46-16 SU and 36-24-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
13-24 SU and 18-19 ATS vs. ACC
250-122 SU and 206-171-4-1 ATS vs. Big 10
15-4 SU an 12-6-1 ATS vs. SEC
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
1-2 1-8 SU and 5-4 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski
12-16 SU and 16-12 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan is:
24-13 SU and 21-14-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS vs. ACC
189-83 SU and 135-133-4 ATS vs. Big 10
8-5 SU and 7-4-2 ATS vs. SEC
0-1 SU and 0-0-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
16-12 SU and 12-16 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and Championship games played over the last 26 years.

Enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:15 AM

Saturday's Top Action

April 2, 2015

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (27-11) vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS (33-4)

Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
NCAA Tournament – Final Four
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Duke -5.0, Total: 138

No. 1 seed Duke takes on No. 7 seed Michigan State, as coaching legends Mike Krzyzewski and Tom Izzo lead their teams into the Final Four for the 12th time combined in the past 20 seasons.

The Duke Blue Devils and the Michigan State Spartans face off in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time since 1998 (and the second time in the Final Four). The Blue Devils and Spartans have played nine times in total over that span, and Duke is 8-1 SU (3-5-1 ATS). Coach K’s one loss to Tom Izzo was a regional final in 2005 where the Blue Devils lost as 4-point favorites.

Duke and Michigan State’s most recent meeting was Nov. 18 of this season, with the Blue Devils coming out on top 81-71, covering the 8.5-point spread. This game, also played in Indiana (Banker’s Life Fieldhouse) was the second game of the season for the Spartans (third for the Blue Devils). Both teams shot over 50% from the field with Duke’s Quinn Cook and Jahlil Okafor combining for 36 points on 15-for-22 from the field. Michigan State held a +10 advantage on the glass, but shot only 5-for-20 from three (compared to Duke’s 7-for-14 from three).

Duke is 9-1 SU (8-2 ATS) in its past 10 games, while Michigan State is 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) in that same span. Both the Blue Devils and Spartans have covered (4-0 ATS) in their respective tournament games to date. Duke took care of No. 2 seed Gonzaga (66-52) as a 1.5-point favorite to reach this point, while Michigan State knocked off No. 4 seed Louisville (76-69) as a 2-point favorite. The total has gone Under in six of Duke’s past eight games, while it’s gone Over in eight of Michigan State’s past 11 games.

Michigan State rolls into this meeting as a much different team than they were in November. As Tom Izzo-coached teams so often do, the Spartans are peaking at the perfect time. An issue for Michigan State, however, will be making Duke’s backcourt uncomfortable. To outrebound Duke in November by 10 and still lose by 10 points, the Spartans need to look no further than the fact that they didn’t force one turnover out of Duke guards Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones. Duke also held a huge edge at the free throw line (20-26 FTM), as Michigan State committed 22 fouls to Duke’s 16. Izzo has the Spartans playing their best defensive basketball of the season, as all four Michigan State tournament opponents have shot worse than 36.5% FG. Duke comes in with the 3rd ranked field goal offense in the country, and shot 54% against Michigan State in November, although it’s notable that Duke has struggled (by their standards) in their past two tournament games from the field, shooting 44% and 38% respectively.

The Spartans are led by their trio of stars, senior G Travis Trice (14.8 PPG, 5.2 APG, 2.2 3PM), junior G Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.4 APG) and senior F Branden Dawson (12.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 55% FG). Trice has taken the scoring burden head-on in the tournament, leading the Spartans in three of their four wins while averaging 19 points per game and hitting 3.3 threes per game. Trice is also shooting an impressive 89% from the line after hitting just 69% over the regular season. Valentine has been more aggressive on offense in the Spartans’ most recent two victories, taking 32 shots en route to 33 points. (After taking just 15 shots in their opening round wins). Valentine also has racked up 18 assists with only 5 turnovers in four tournament games. Dawson has scored single digits in his past two contests, but boasts 11-rebound performances in each game (while also blocking four shots versus Louisville).

G Bryn Forbes (8.6 PPG) has been a key offensive contributor for the Spartans off the bench, averaging 29 MPG in the tournament and making 53% of his threes (2.3 3PM) in that span.

Amidst all of the superlatives Duke has racked up, whether it be for their fifth-in-the-nation scoring offense (79.5 PPG), which shoots 50.2% from the field (3rd in NCAA), or their ever-climbing offensive efficiency as they’ve played effective offense while controlling pace in the tournament (1.2 points per-possession, 2nd in NCAA), the most important vehicle to Duke reaching the Final Four has been its defensive efficiency.

Early in ACC conference play, all that was talked about when mentioning Duke was its much-maligned defense in losses to Miami and North Carolina State. Duke even went to a gimmick 2-3 zone defense to try and stop the bleeding. Now, here they are in the tournament and haven’t given up more than 0.89 points per-possession in any of their four games, while holding one of the best offenses in the country (Gonzaga) to 52 points.

G Quinn Cook (15.7 PPG, 2.8 3PM), C Jahlil Okafor (17.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 67% FG) and F Justise Winslow (12.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG) have all been stalwarts in Duke’s tournament success. Okafor has not quite been his dominant self in the tournament with teams selling out to double him in the post, but he’s still managed 15 points per game on 66% from the field, and has contributed two blocks per game on defense. Cook has played fantastic defense in the tournament, neutralizing Utah’s Delon Wright and Gonzaga’s Kevin Pangos, while scoring 14.5 points per game himself. Winslow has been a ball of fire on defense, averaging 9.5 rebounds per game (double figures in three of four) along with 1.5 steals and 1.8 blocks per game.

G Tyus Jones (11.6 PPG, 5.8 APG) has been steady, but his heroics haven’t been needed to this point. Jones did score 15 points with six assists versus Gonzaga in his best performance of the tournament.

WISCONSIN BADGERS (35-3) vs. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (38-0)

Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
NCAA Tournament – Final Four
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kentucky -5.0, Total: 132

After a scare against Notre Dame, undefeated Kentucky looks to continue their magical season in a Final Four rematch from 2014 versus Wisconsin.

Kentucky and Wisconsin have been here before, and it resulted in one of the better tournament games in recent memory, a 74-73 Final Four win for the Wildcats (who were favored by 1) on a heroic Aaron Harrison three pointer. The 5-point spread marks a tie for the lowest amount that Kentucky has been favored this season (Dec. 27 at Louisville) and is the first time that the Wildcats have been less than a double-digit favorite since Mar. 3 at Georgia. Kentucky defeated a Notre Dame team (68-66) in the regional final to get to this point, failing to cover at -11.

Wisconsin will go into its second straight game as an underdog, having beaten Arizona at +1.5 to send Bo Ryan to his second straight Final Four and the third Final Four in Wisconsin history. The Badgers have never played in the championship game.

John Calipari’s Wildcats will be looking to return to the championship game after losing the title game to Connecticut last season. Calipari will be looking for his second NCAA title in his fifth Final Four appearance. Kentucky’s program will be looking for its 9th NCAA title with two more victories in Indianapolis. Kentucky is 1-3 ATS in its four tournament games and 5-5 ATS in its past 10 games. The Wildcats are 3-2 ATS in games where they are single-digit favorites this season and 19-18-1 ATS overall.

While not the length of Kentucky’s season-long streak, Wisconsin is 10-0 SU (6-4 ATS) in their past 10 games. The Badgers are 20-17-1 ATS overall this season. Wisconsin is also 4-0 ATS in its tournament history when playing a No. 1 seed. The total for six of Kentucky’s past eight games has been Under, while the total has been Over for seven of Wisconsin’s past ten games.

Wisconsin gets the Final Four rematch that it may, or may not have wanted. The faces for the opposing Wildcats will have changed some, but one Aaron Harrison still remains, as the protagonist for the Badgers’ exit in 2014. Wisconsin has a better offense this time around, as C Frank Kaminsky (18.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 57% FG), F Sam Dekker (13.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 53% FG) and F Nigel Hayes (12.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 50% FG) are all much-improved players since last March. Graduated G Ben Brust is the only Badger lost of key players from last season’s loss. The Badgers were able to successfully convert 19-of-20 from the free throw line to stay within striking distance of Kentucky last season, but only got eight points and five rebounds in a quiet night from star Kaminsky in the loss.

Kaminsky and Dekker enter the Final Four playing extremely good basketball – in Dekker’s case (21.8 PPG, 60% FG, 3.3 3PM/48% 3PT) the best basketball of his life. Without Dekker’s huge shot-making against Arizona (27 points, 8-for-11 FG, 5-for-6 3PT) with contested three’s in big moments, the Badgers would very likely be watching the Final Four from Madison, Wisconsin.

Kaminsky contributed a game-high 29 points versus Arizona, and has really upped his production going to the basket and drawing contact, averaging 6.5 made free throws per game (up from 3.6 FTM/G) in four tournament games. If Kaminsky can get the talented and imposing Kentucky big men in foul trouble, it’d really turn the tables in Wisconsin’s favor to reach the title game.

Wisconsin’s offense is very similar, from a pace and efficiency standpoint (1.22 points per-possession, 1st in NCAA) to Notre Dame’s. They don’t turn the ball over (7.1 TO/G, 1st in NCAA), don’t foul, and always make the extra pass. They feature the three quite as much, but Kentucky was hurt just as much by Zach Auguste and lapses in defensive rotations due to a patient offense than anything else. What should make this game interesting is that the Badgers have the size that the Fighting Irish lacked to compete on defense against Kentucky.

Unsung backcourt mates G Bronson Koenig (8.6 PPG, 42% 3PT, still undefeated as starter) and G Josh Gasser (6.9 PPG, 1.3 3PT) have to be accounted for due to their ability to knock down open jumpers when the defense collapses on Wisconsin’s talented frontcourt. Gasser hit big shots en route to 10 points against Arizona in the Elite Eight.

Kentucky looked human for the first time in a long while as they desperately watched Notre Dame’s Jerian Grant sail a three point attempt to blemish its perfect record. The faces on the Kentucky players told the story: This was a truly happy and relieved bunch to make the Final Four. Kentucky is beatable, but it is still the best team in the country.

If this is a wake-up call and Coach Calipari has the Wildcats come out swinging, it could be a very long evening for Wisconsin.

F Karl Towns (9.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.3 BPG) was outstanding in a breakout offensive game for the projected lottery pick, feasting on Notre Dame’s undersized interior for post field goal after field goal on the way to 25 points on 10-of-13 from the field. There’s no doubt that Kentucky is at home right now if not for Towns, who also posted a 21-point, 10-rebound effort in the first round win over Hampton.

Fellow freshman F Trey Lyles (8.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG) had been putting together a great tournament with double-figure scoring in Kentucky’s first three games, before a 9-point, five turnover dud against Notre Dame. Lyles had two blocks, but also had repeated defensive lapses allowing easy baskets for the Fighting Irish.

C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG) will be key in a possible individual matchup versus Wisconsin’s Kaminsky. Cauley-Stein would prove the most athletic defender that Kaminsky has faced, and has blocked nine shots in the tournament over four games, but he’s been quite unproductive beyond blocks (no double-figure scoring games, six rebounds combined versus Notre Dame and Cincinnati).

G Andrew Harrison (9.2 PPG, 3.7 APG) has alternated good and bad games out of his four contests, while brother, G Aaron Harrison (11.3 PPG) also has only had two of four solid games, but even his one field goal versus Arizona was a huge, crunch time three – something he’s obviously made a name for doing.

G Tyler Ulis (5.6 PPG, 3.8 APG), and G Devin Booker (10.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM) could prove to be x-factors off the bench for Calipari.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:17 AM

Final Four Betting Preview

April 3, 2015

Final Four History · Championship History
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Duke (TBS, 6:09 p.m. ET)

In the first national semifinal Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Duke and Michigan State will collide in a rematch of a Nov. 18 meeting that was played at this same venue. The winner will advance to Monday's finals to face the survivor of Kentucky-Wisconsin.

As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Duke (33-4 straight up, 22-14-1 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 138.5 points. Gamblers can back the Spartans on the money line for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200).

Mike Krzyzewski's team is back in the Final Four for the 12th time during his dynastic tenure. Coach K is seeking his fifth national title and his ninth appearance in the finals. His record in the NCAA Tournament has improved to 86-26 (78.6%) with four straight wins in the last two weeks.

Tom Izzo has Michigan St. (27-11 SU, 22-16 ATS) in its seventh Final Four on his watch. He has more wins as a lower-seeded team (13) against a higher-seeded opponent than any other coach in NCAA Tournament history. However, we should note that Izzo has lost four of six games in the national semifinals. His career Tournament record is 46-16 (74.2%).

Duke got to the Final Four with wins over Utah and Gonzaga last weekend. Bettors on the Blue Devils as five-point favorites against Utah cashed tickets in a deserved, albeit quite unusual, fashion. Coach K's squad won a 63-57 decision over the Utes as a five-point favorite.

Trailing by seven with 15 ticks remaining, Utah got a bucket from Delon Wright to pull even with the number at 62-57. Moments later, the Utes forced Quinn Cook into a turnover to take control of the ball with nine seconds. With six seconds left, Jordan Loveridge missed a trey that was rebounded by Cook.

Cook appeared to possibly get fouled or tied up for a whistle that would've have resulted in going to the possession arrow. But there was no whistle and Cook broke away and dribbled through traffic. He clearly got fouled with at least one or two seconds left but time expired. Players started to leave the court, as Duke supporters were bemoaning the lack of a call.

As it appeared the game was over and bets on the side would push, the officials decided to look at the replay and determined that there was 0.6 seconds remaining when a foul was called. Players were called back to the court and Cook was sent to the line for two shots.

Then he missed the first. The second was good, though, and Duke backers got the winner.

On Sunday afternoon in Houston, Duke broke open a tight game in the last six minutes and pulled away for a 66-52 win over Gonzaga as a two-point 'chalk.' Justise Winslow made plays galore at crunch time and finished with 16 points to share team-high scoring honors with Matt Jones, who drained 4-of-7 launches from long distance.

Michigan St. has won four tight games in the Tournament over Georgia (70-63), Virginia (60-54), Oklahoma (62-58) and Louisville (76-70 in overtime). Travis Trice has been sensational, averaging 19.8 points, 4.0 assists and 3.3 rebounds per game. He had 17 points, five assists and five boards in the win over U of L in the Elite Eight.

Denzel Valentine had a monster effort against Louisville also, producing 15 points, seven rebounds, six assists, two steals and one blocked shot. Bryn Forbes came off the bench to knock down 4-of-6 from 3-point range in a 14-point effort.

Duke has been a single-digit favorite 12 times this season, compiling an 8-4 spread record. Meanwhile, Michigan St. has been an underdog eight times, going 4-4 ATS with two outright victories.

When these teams met in November, Duke prevailed by an 81-71 count as an eight-point 'chalk.' The 152 combined points soared 'over' the 144.5-point tally.

The game was basically decided at the free-throw line. The Blue Devils went 20-of-26 at the charity stripe, while MSU was just 6-of-10. The Spartans won the battle of the boards by a 33-22 margin, but Duke shot 54.0 percent from the field.

Cook scored 19 points and dished out six assists without committing a turnover. Tyus Jones and Jahlil Okafor scored 17 points apiece, while Winslow finished with 15 points, six rebounds and three assists.

In the losing effort, Branden Dawson had 18 points and nine rebounds while making 8-of-10 shots from the floor. Travis Trice finished with 15 points, eight assists and six rebounds.

Duke has won nine of 10 games against MSU on Coach K's watch. They last met in the NCAA Tournament two seasons ago at (you guessed it) Lucas Oil Stadium where the Blue Devils captured a 71-61 win in the Sweet 16. They took the cash as two-point 'chalk' behind six 3-pointers from Seth Curry, who finished with a game-high 29 points.

Only Cook from Duke remains as a player who got playing time in that game. He missed all five of his shots from the field and failed to score. Trice made all three of his attempts and finished with eight points for MSU, while Dawson had four points, two boards and two assists in 23 minutes of playing time.

Duke has won four consecutive head-to-head meetings between these programs. The last victory by the Spartans came in the 2005 Tournament when they beat the Blue Devils 78-68 as four-point underdogs. The 'over' is 5-1 in the last six encounters between these schools.

A huge factor in this game could be which teams' best post player does or doesn't get into foul trouble. I'm talking about MSU's Dawson, who averages 11.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.6 blocks per game. He has nine blocked shots in the Spartans' last three games.

If Michigan St. could get Duke's Okafor in foul trouble, it would be huge. Okafor averages team-highs in scoring (17.5 PPG), rebounds (8.7 RPG), field-goal percentage (66.7%) and blocked shots (1.4 BPG).

The 'over' is 18-17 overall for Duke, but the 'under' has cashed in six straight games and eight of its last nine.

The 'over' is 20-15-2 overall for Sparty, 8-3 in its last 11 outings. This is the fifth-highest total MSU has seen this year. In the four games that had higher totals (all in the 140s), the 'over' went 3-1.

Many books are offering proposition bets galore for both semifinal contests. For instance, Sportsbook.ag has 'over/unders' for the stats of key players. One example is Trice's total for points scored is 16.5 (-120 both ways). The total for Dawson's points is 12.5 ('under' -130, 'over' -110).

The offshore website has multiple totals for Okafor, including points (18.5 'over' -130), rebounds (eight 'over' -140) and made free throws (2.5 'over' -185).

Tip-off is scheduled for 6:09 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky (TBS, 8:49 p.m. ET)

Wisconsin and Kentucky will square off in the second national semifinal game Saturday night in Indy. This is a rematch of a spectacular semifinal matchup won by UK last season.

As of early Friday afternoon, most spots had Kentucky (38-0 SU, 19-17-2 ATS) listed as a five-point favorite with a total of 131 points. Bettors can take the Badgers to win outright for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200). For first-half wagers, the Wildcats are favored by 2.5 points with a total of 60.5.

John Calipari's team got quite the scare in last Saturday night's Midwest Region finals in Cleveland. Kentucky trailed for most of the second half and by six with less than six minutes remaining. However, Aaron Harrison buried a huge 3-pointer at crunch time and with the game tied and the shot clock off, Andrew Harrison penetrated into the lane and drew a blocking call.

Andrew Harrison hit both free throws with six seconds left and the Irish's shot at the buzzer was well contested and off the mark. The 'Cats prevailed 68-66 but never threatened to cover the 11-point spread. Gamblers backing Notre Dame on the money line for a 6/1 payout were left heartbroken.

The win sent UK to the Final Four for the fourth time in the last five seasons. Karl Anthony-Towns scored a career-best 25 points to go with five rebounds, four assists, two steals and one blocked shot. Devin Booker scored 10 points from off the bench, splashing the nets with 2-of-3 attempts from beyond the arc.

Wisconsin (35-3 SU, 20-17-1 ATS) has only been an underdog once this season and that was in its last outing vs. Arizona in the Elite Eight. The Badgers improved to 10-0 in games on a neutral floor as they captured an 85-78 win as 1.5-point underdogs.

Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker led the way for Bo Ryan's team, which shot at a sizzling 12-for-18 clip from 3-point range against the Wildcats. Dekker drained 5-of-6 from long distance en route to a career-high 27-point effort. Kaminsky scored a game-high 29 points and pulled down six rebounds.

Josh Gasser added 10 points, two steals, two boards and two assists without committing a turnover.

Wisconsin covered the number in its Sweet 16 matchup vs. North Carolina, but Badger backers were extremely fortunate to cash that ticket. The Tar Heels were ahead of the number as 6.5-point underdogs for the entire game until Wisconsin's last bucket gave it a 79-72 triumph. The 151 combined points jumped 'over' the 144.5-point tally.

Dekker was the catalyst against UNC, producing 23 points and 10 rebounds on 10-of-15 shooting from the field. Kaminsky had 19 points and eight boards, while Nigel Hayes finished with 12 points and six boards. Traevon Jackson got his first playing time since early January, returning from a broken foot to play nine minutes and score four points. Jackson was held scoreless vs. Arizona, but his presence allows Ryan to use an eight-man rotation.

Zak Showalter played just eight minutes off the bench against UNC, but he scored six huge points midway through the second half when Wisconsin surged into the lead.

Kentucky had zero issues in the Sweet 16 round, blasting West Va. 78-39 as a 13.5-point 'chalk.' Calipari improved to 3-8 in 11 career meeting against Bob Huggins, who is one of just two active coaches with a winning record vs. Cal.

UK has been a single-digit favorite six times this year, posting a 3-3 spread record. If this line holds at five, it will equal the shortest number the 'Cats have had this year. As five-point favorites at Louisville back on Dec. 27, they won a 58-50 decision at the KFC Yum! Center.

When these schools met at the Final Four last season, Aaron Harrison drained the game-winning 3-pointer with 5.7 seconds left to lift UK to a 74-73 win as a one-point favorite. Dekker had 15 points in the losing effort, while Kaminsky finished with eight points and five rebounds in 32 minutes of playing time. Kaminsky made 4-of-7 shots from the field.

Sportsbook.ag has prop bets galore. Kaminsky's total for points scored is 19.5 (-140 for the 'under', even money for the 'over'), while Dekker's total for points is 15.5 ('over' -130).

Karl Anthony-Town's total for points is 12.5 ('under' -140), while his number for rebounds is six ('over' -125).

The 'under' is 20-18 overall for the Badgers, but they have seen the 'over' cash at a 7-3 clip in their last 10 games.

The 'under' is 23-15 overall for UK, cashing in three consecutive games.

TBS will have the broadcast at 8:49 p.m. Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:21 AM

APRIL RATED PLAYS:

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slam dunk.............................2 - 3

cbb

*****....................................0 - 0
double play............................1 - 0
triple play..............................1 - 3
slam dunk..............................0 - 1

nhl

*****...............................3 - 1............... + 1,76
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triple play..........................1 - 1............... + 0.00
hat trick............................2 - 3............... - 7.38

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:22 AM

Seniors lead Duke, Wisky, Michigan St.

April 3, 2015

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Quinn Cook is Duke's heart and soul, the senior who suffered through two stunningly early NCAA Tournament exits then slid over to accommodate the arrival of a talented freshman point guard.

That's why he won't let the Blue Devils be content with just making it to the Final Four.

Look around the Final Four, and there are a lot of seniors taking charge heading into Saturday's national semifinals.

There's Wisconsin's senior quartet led by Frank Kaminsky. There's Michigan State's Travis Trice-Branden Dawson duo that pushed a No. 7 seed to yet another final-weekend NCAA Tournament appearance for coach Tom Izzo.

This Final Four offers proof that seniors still have a big say in how far their teams go in March, with Trice saying seniors can ''really put you over the edge.''

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:31 AM

Wood, BG, SA Derby Previews

April 3, 2015

ANTHONY'S ELEVEN (4/3/15)

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points

1 Mubtaahij Christophe Soumillon Mike de Kock Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 100
2 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/11 at OP) 22

3 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 70

4 Frammento Gary Stevens Nick Zito Blue Grass (4/4 at KEE) 10

5 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker Louisiana Derby (3/28 at FG) 171

6 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 58

7 Dubai Sky Jose Lezcano Bill Mott Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 50

8 Prospect Park Kent Desormeaux Clifford Sise, Jr. Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 20

9 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin Wood Memorial (4/4 at Aqu) 13

10 Upstart Jose Ortz Rick Violette, Jr. Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 76

11 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 44

Three more 100 point Kentucky Derby prep races are on tap this Saturday, one week after Materiality, International Star and the new top dog on “Anthony’s Eleven,” Mubtaahij punched their tickets to Louisville with wins in the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby and UAE Derby, respectively.

And while I doubt any one of those three from last week will go off as the chalk just four weeks from now at Churchill Downs, there is a pretty good chance, especially if the morning line proves true in either the G1 Blue Grass or G1 Santa Anita Derby, that the Kentucky Derby favorite is running this Saturday.

Oddly enough, we’ll start this weeks’ action in New York with the race that probably won’t produce the Derby favorite, the G1 Wood Memorial going 1 1/8 miles over the Aqueduct main track. Only seven will run, as Far From Over was forced to withdraw with an injury, while others, like Upstart, opted for another prep race.

Trainer Todd Pletcher may have lost Far From Over but he may still saddle the favorite in Daredevil. Daredevil won the first two starts of his career, including the G1 Champagne, over wet tracks before running poorly in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his first try around two turns and over a dry course.

Daredevil resurfaced some four months later in the G2 Swale going seven furlongs at Gulfstream. Breaking from the rail under regular rider Javier Castellano, Daredevil was taken off the pace and raced wide on the turn but failed to make any impact late, finishing an even second as the 3-5 favorite. He’ll break from post 6.

Like Daredevil, Frosted ships up from Florida for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and comes into this off one of the most mind-boggling efforts I’ve ever seen on a racetrack. After finishing second in the G3 Holy Bull to start the season, Frosted was entered in the G2 Fountain of Youth, sporting blinkers for the first time.

Frosted broke alertly, was forwardly placed throughout and made the lead approaching the far turn with the utmost of ease and looked ready to win for fun. But once the field straightened for the wire, Frosted stopped like he was hit with a baseball bat under Irad Ortiz, Jr. and settled for fourth. In the days and weeks after the race, McLaughlin still hasn’t been able to offer up any excuse for the effort but has trained Frosted aggressively and makes a rider switch to Joel Rosario. He’ll break from post 4.

El Kabeir has called the Big Apple home the entire winter and will look to defend his turf while coming off what was arguably his most impressive effort to date in the G3 Gotham last out, when he came from well off the pace to win by 2 ¾ lengths for trainer John Terranova, III.

After winning the G2 KJC at Churchill on the front end in his final start of last season, El Kabeir rated just off the pace in his G3 Jerome score before fading to second as the 1-2 chalk in the G3 Withers two back when he got cooked up in a mid-race pace battle. As he has all year, Chuckie Lopez will ride from post 5.

Gotham runner-up Tiz Shea D attended a quick pace throughout in his latest, his first over a wet track, around two turns and for his new connections, including trainer Bill Mott, and battled nicely along the inside to regain place money in just the second start of his career. Tiz Shea D broke his maiden easily in a Parx sprint back in February. Manny Franco rides for the first time from the rail.

Toasting Master set the pace in the Gotham for trainer Dale Romans before fading through the stretch to finish fourth. Two starts back, it was the same story in a Florida bred stakes over the Polytrack at the Ocala Training Center. Angel Arroyo has the return call from post 2.

New York bred Tencendur took a ton of action off of a fourth place finish in the Withers when adding blinkers in the Gotham from post 9. He raced wide throughout without ever seriously contending before finishing fifth. He’ll try again from post 7 for trainer George Weaver and new rider Jose Ortiz.

Lieutenant Colonel had a bit of trouble at the break in the Gotham but I doubt it was the main reason he finished last of ten in his only start other than his debut tally going a mile at Gulfstream for Chad Brown. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides from post 3.

Pletcher will certainly saddle the favorite in the Blue Grass at Keeneland as Carpe Diem is even money on the morning line against seven others going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. This will be the first time the Blue Grass is run four weeks out from the Kentucky Derby.

Carpe Diem returns to the scene of his biggest triumph, having easily taken the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall after his debut tally and before his second place finish in the Juvenile, a race in which he looked like he’d be off the board before rallying in the stretch.

Like Daredevil, Carpe Diem was given a four month break and returned in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. Carpe Diem sat a couple of lengths off of the early pace and made the lead as he pleased before cruising to a five length score under his regular pilot John Velazquez, who’ll guide him from post 5.

Classy Class ships in off of a pair of third place finishes in the Withers and Gotham for McLaughlin with Junior Alvarado in the saddle. Winless since his debut victory, Classy Class was up against a pair of biases in the G2 Remsen last year and in the Withers this year then was given a brutal ride by Alvarado last out, first allowing El Kabeir to get inside position on him, then getting steadied a couple of times on the far turn. He’ll break from post 7 and needs to fire his best shot if he is to take down the favorite.

Two time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito ships in Frammento from Florida, hoping this colt can prove worthy of a chance to run for the roses. Frammento, whose lone win in six tries came over this track, added blinkers last out and was the only one making up any ground when third in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Gary Stevens rides for the first time from post 6.

Ocho Ocho Ocho suffered the first loss of his career when returning from a three month layoff in the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita last out when he encountered some traffic in the early going, suffering some superficial cuts to his legs in the process. Last year, Ocho Ocho Ocho won all three starts, including the G3 Delta Jackpot for trainer Jim Cassidy. He’ll break from the rail with Santiago Gonzalez.

Mark Casse’s Danzig Moon went into the Tampa Bay Derby with a ton of buzz after an impressive maiden score in his first start of the year but never fired, finishing a non-threatening fourth. Julien Leparoux rides from post 8.

Gorgeous Bird had his two race win streak snapped when he tried two turns and stepped up into stakes company in the Fountain of Youth most recently when he finished fifth for Ian Wilkes. He’ll be reunited with B.J. Hernandez, his rider as a juvenile, for this. He’ll break from post 4.

Pepper Roani added blinkers two starts back and broke his maiden in the sixth start of his career then finished second in the Battaglia Memorial over the Turfway Polytrack for Mike Mena. He’ll break from post 3 with Miguel Mena. Unrivaled won his last pair by daylight at Parx for trainer Marya Montoya and gets a rider change to Robby Albarado from post 2.

Out in California, the undefeated Dortmund leads a field of six in the G1 Santa Anita Derby going 1 1/8 miles on the main track for Bob Baffert, who’ll also send out One Lucky Dane.

After coming from just off the pace in his three juvenile victories, jockey Martin Garcia has kept Dortmund in the game more as a sophomore. He alternated on the lead through most of his gutsy score in the G3 Robert Lewis then went gate-to-wire last out in the G2 San Felipe. It’ll be interesting to see what Garcia does from his rail draw in here.

One Lucky Dane broke his maiden in the third start of his career, his first on dirt, and was so impressive that Baffert ran him back in the Juvenile where he finished sixth. In his lone start this year, a little over two weeks ago, he won an allowance/optional claimer by nearly 10 lengths. Rafael Bejarano returns from post 2.

The second and third place finishers from the San Felipe, Prospect Park and Bolo, are back for another crack at Dortmund and will likely take two different approaches to beating him.

Trained by Clifford Sise, Jr., Prospect Park came from off the pace last out to grab the place money from Bolo but still finished 1 ¼ lengths behind the winner. His rider, Kent Desormeaux, admitted after the race that he tried to “hide” from Dortmund, knowing his penchant for responding favorably to a tussle. He’ll break from post 5.

Bolo, on the other hand, took the fight to Dortmund on the far turn and stayed with him to deep stretch before tiring ever so slightly in the final sixteenth for trainer Carla Gaines. It was Bolo’s first start in nine weeks and first on dirt as he won two of his three starts last year, including the Eddie Logan, on the grass. Mike Smith rides from post 4.

Jerry Hollendorfer sends out Cross the Line, runner-up in the G3 El Camino Real Derby over the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields last out. In fact, Cross the Line has made all five of his career starts at that northern California track, including his win in the California Derby two back. Juan Hernandez rides from post 3.

Bad Read Sanchez returns from an eight month layoff for trainer Doug O’Neill and Mario Gutierrez from post 6. Bad Read Sanchez broke his maiden here in his debut then finished second in a minor stakes at Los Alamitos before finishing third in the G3 Best Pal over the synthetic surface at Del Mar.

Prep Play of the Day

Last week we hit the saver exacta in the Florida Derby and got split in the Louisiana Derby. Dems da breaks. This week, bet $40 to win on Frosted in the Wood Memorial and make a $30 exacta using Dortmund over Bolo in the Santa Anita Derby. Total cost is $70. Good luck!!!!

Bankroll: Minus $58

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:36 AM

How can Wisconsin beat UK? With its offense, the best in modern history

April 2, 2015 4:39 pm ET

INDIANAPOLIS -- So ... how are they going to pull this off?

Can you confidently declare this team's going to win on Saturday night despite going up against one of the best units on that side of the ball we've ever seen? That's hard to say with certainty.

So tell me: How can Kentucky beat Wisconsin?

That's no typo.

How will Kentucky, 38-0 Kentucky, beat Wisconsin?

Let's get into this, because one of the big reasons this is among the most enticing and attractive Final Fours ever is this game -- which has the elements for topping last weekend's Kentucky-Notre Dame classic -- and the diametric forces at work. UK-Wisconsin might end up among the best national semifinals in the history of the sport. It's obvious why the Wildcats are the five-point favorites and rightfully being framed as presumed winners.

But they're not likely winners. There are arguments to be had on both sides here. This undefeated Wildcats defense is going to be remembered for its length, size, speed and skyline-high fortification. It's without debate among the most impressive defensive units in the past decade, if not the best. Kentucky's 85.6 adjusted defensive efficiency mark on KenPom.com ties 2013 Wisconsin's crew, of all teams, for second-best ever. A John Calipari team, coincidentally enough, has the best per-possession defensive rating in the KenPom era (i.e. since 2002): Memphis in 2008-09 posted an 85.1 DRtg.

"Having so many tall, athletic players, it definitely doesn't make it easy," Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky said. "At the same time we know that we're going to be able to get some stuff just like they're going to be able to get some stuff going on on offense. It's going to be a battle, we know that. They have like seven guys over 6-10. ... It's going to be fun. I can't wait. It's not going to be easy to prepare because obviously there's no scout team in the country that can replicate what they have on their team."

But for as superb as UK is on defense, it's now facing Wisconsin, which boasts far and away the best offense in modern college basketball history. In a sentence: the Badgers are better with the ball than Kentucky is without it.

"One of our biggest things in the Notre Dame game was giving up backdoors, easy baskets," Cauley-Stein said. "They utilized that. They kind of pride themselves on, you know, exploiting people's weakness and taking over from it. So that's our biggest thing is not giving up easy baskets, not letting them play angles against us."

If Notre Dame was a river for Kentucky to ford, Wisconsin is a white-capped rapid. The Badgers have an offensive rating of 127.5, meaning they are dousing foes at a blazing rate. UW's scoring nearly 128 points per 100 possessions. Unheard of at the college level.

That UW is flirting with 1.3 PPP on a per-game basis is flatly freaky. We should've expected a continuation from last season, when the Bucky O clocked out at 120.8, but it's gotten ridiculous.

And the team's efficiency keeps rising.

Since March began, Wisconsin's offense has only gotten better -- against better opponents in the biggest time of the season, mind you. Per Ken Pomeroy's data, here's how the Badgers are have risen after each game over the past month. All the while, they've been maintained their lead in ORtg on the rest of the country.

Date AdjO Rank
3-2 122.3 1
3-6 122.8 1
3-9 123.2 1
3-14 124.7 1
3-15 124.7 1
3-16 124.6 1
3-21 125.2 1
3-23 124.9 1
3-27 125.8 1
3-29 127.5 1
That Sconnie embarrassed Arizona's elite defense to the point of jumping its overall O rating almost two full points in the Elite Eight has to be one of the most impressive achievements any team's had in the NCAA Tournament -- ever.

While we don't have data from prior teams/decades, it's very possible no group has ever been this efficient on offense in the history of college hoops. It's all the more likely when you consider the 3-point line didn't come into play until the 1980s. This team has five guys averaging more than one 3-pointer made per game.

The Badgers' ability on offense so out-classes the other great teams since KenPom began charting tempo-free stats in 2001-02 it's borderline surreal. Here are the top 10 offensively efficient teams from the past 13 seasons. Notice Wisconsin is more than three points per possession higher than second place, last year's Michigan team.

For historical context, here are the top 10 teams on offense in the KenPom era.

Year Team ORtg
2015 Wisconsin 127.5
2014 Michigan 124.1
2005 Wake Forest 124.0
2012 Missouri 123.9
2014 Duke 123.5
2011 Ohio State 123.3
2015 Notre Dame 123.1
2014 Creighton 122.8
2009 N. Carolina 122.4
2005 N. Carolina 121.9
Because Wisconsin is this streamlined, on a basic level, that should tell us UW's chances are better than at first glance. And in this year's tournament, Wisconsin's averaging more points than any team that's played at least two games. The Badgers have put up 80.5 points per game en route to the national semifinals.

Kentucky's defensive assignments are going to be fascinating. Will Cauley-Stein match up on Kaminsky, and if so, who does Karl-Anthony Towns guard? And Trey Lyles? Expect shifts by the possession.

"I think with the guys that we have, we're going to do a lot of switching anyway," Cauley Stein said. "Not one person is going to be on that set player during the whole game. You know, everybody in practice has been guarding guards and bigs. We're just kind of ready for everything."

Additionally, this year's Final Four is so intriguing because it's got the headliner of undefeated Kentucky and that wowing defense -- then you see Wisconsin, Duke at 119.8 points per 100 possessions, which is third in the country, and Kentucky with a 115.6 O rating, fifth-best in the sport this season. And then you factor in how Wisconsin doesn't slice at itself. The team's foul-per-game rate is 12.4, the lowest in the country, and its turnover percentage sits at 12.3 percent of possesssions. That's also the lowest in the country. It's done this against the eighth-toughest schedule nationally.

Your offense gets much better the less you give the ball away. No one has mastered this like Wisconsin.

Through this lens, it's a little surprising we haven't seen more people make a bigger deal out of what UK's dealing with. Especially when you factor in that Kentucky and Wisconsin played each other in last year's Final Four, and that game was a classic.

Oh, right, and Frank Kaminsky is the Player of the Year.

"How much better he's gotten over a two-year period, it's almost scary," Calipari said.

To ask or expect a rematch in the Final Four and for both teams to be putting up peerless numbers is a treat for fans and proof Calipari and Bo Ryan are all-time greats. It's only fitting they're both up for Naismith Hall of Fame nominations. (We'll find out Monday morning if Calipari and/or Ryan earned enough votes for induction this year.)

Kentucky's the one with the undefeated record, but as Calipari's repeated often this month, it's not perfect. His guys faced their best opponent of the season last weekend in Cleveland and they barely won. Notre Dame more than likely wins that game if it scores just one basket in the final two and a half minutes.

Wisconsin going two and a half minutes without a point would be Halley's Comet-rare.

The question isn't: How is Wisconsin going to be Kentucky?

The question is: How incredibly lucky are we to get a game of this caliber on the sport's ultimate stage?

You already know the answer.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:38 AM

Viewer's Guide: The Final Four edition

Can Kentucky continue its unbeaten run? Can Wisconsin play spoiler? Will Duke continue its march toward a championship? Will the Spartans continue their improbable run? Let's set the table for what will be an awesome day of hoops.

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Duke ; 6:09 ET, TBS: Izzo vs. Krzyzewski is about as good a coaching matchup as you can get, even if the teams are a talent mismatch on paper. Duke features three potential first rounders in June, including potential No. 1 overall pick Jahlil Okafor. The Spartans feature a couple of guys who might eventually get to play in the NBA but will probably end up elsewhere. The two teams played in November with the Blue Devils picking up a 81-71 win. Will the same thing happen here? It seems likely that the Blue Devils win, but this is a different Michigan State team than the one they played five months ago, so I certainly would not count them out.

No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky ; 8:49 ET, TBS: The best offense in the history of KenPom vs. the second-best defense in the history of KenPom. What can you expect in this game? My guess is that Wisconsin tries to slow the game to a crawl, and tries to get the Kentucky starting big men in foul trouble. One of the most interesting parts of this game is the way the two matchup in the frontcourt. Can Frank Kaminsky play well against Willie Cauley-Stein? Can he defend Karl-Anthony Towns? Can anyone outside of Cauley-Stein slow down Sam Dekker? There are just so many matchup advantages for both teams that it's going to be fasincating to see who can gain the edge. Maybe it's the Wildcats, maybe it's the Badgers. But this is far from a shoo-in for Kentucky to get to 39-0 because I don't care who Wisconsin is playing: If they go 1.62 points-per-possession in a half like they did against Arizona last Saturday, they will beat anyone.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:40 AM

HAMMERING HANKS PICKS ON THE FINAL FOUR

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...l-four-edition

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:43 AM

Best coaching job in Tom Izzo's career is why Spartans are back in Final Four

INDIANAPOLIS -- Michigan State coach Tom Izzo has certainly had better teams than this year's version of the Spartans, which will face Duke on Saturday in the Final Four.

But taking this Michigan State team to the national semifinals is the best coaching job of Izzo's 20-year career.

And that's saying something.

After all, Izzo won the national title in 2000, has been to has been to seven Final Fours and has been in at least the Sweet 16 far more often (13 times) than he hasn't been there (seven).

But looking at the Spartans and what they are, it's hard for me to come to any other conclusion.

First, let's look at the talent level on this team. The Spartans have one McDonald's All-American recruit in Branden Dawson, a top-20 recruit from the 2011 high school class. But beyond him, there aren't any other top-90 recruits, according to 247Sports.com's composite rankings. Travis Trice ranked 188th in that 2011 class. Denzel Valentine was 105th in 2012. Matt Costello is the highest-ranked recruit outside of Dawson, coming in at 92nd in 2012.

"Our program, our team, we have to do it a different way," Izzo said Friday. "We don't have all the All-Americans all the time. We're trying to make them."

Given Izzo's track record, it's hard to argue with him. His history of developing mid-level recruits into college stars is exemplary, from Drew Neitzel to Draymond Green. But this is different. Never before has Izzo had a player outside of the top-100 high school players lead his team in scoring. In fact, only one other non-top-100 recruit has ever been among the team's top-four scorers for any given season (Goran Suton). This year, his top two scorers -- Trice and Valentine -- were outside of the top 100.

What Izzo has done to develop these players into go-to guys is above and beyond anything that he's had to do in the past. And the road to getting them there and getting them to reach this point was not easy.

The Spartans struggled early in the year, undoubtedly adjusting to having increased roles in the absences of Adreian Payne, Gary Harris and Keith Appling on both ends. None of the returning players had more than a 19 percent usage rate last season, so someone needed to step up and take on the offensive load. And defensively, the team was certainly not up to Izzo's standards. On Jan. 5, the team was sitting at 9-5 -- including a loss to Texas Southern at Breslin Center -- with an offense that was 49th in the country and a defense that couldn't get stops late when they needed them.

But things came together, as they typically do with Izzo teams. Offensively, Trice started his run of incredible play with a 7-for-8 mark from 3-point range against Iowa, and he's averaged 16.6 points per game since then compared to 13.3 before. Bryn Forbes got over a hand injury and raised his play on both ends, and when that happened the floor opened up more for the slashing of Trice and the passing/playmaking of Valentine, a player who is adept at finding cutters. Basically, it was what Izzo expected offensively from this group this season. It's the defensive play that has surprised him.

"The adjustments I thought we'd have to make, I didn't think we'd be good defensively," Izzo said. "I thought we'd be better offensively. We've turned out to be pretty good offensively, but a lot better than I thought defensively."

Izzo's teams are typically known for their defense. Coming into the season, Izzo hadn't finished outside of the top 32 teams in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. While this group hasn't quite lived up to that standard (currently 46th), Izzo is pleased with the progress they've made.

"We weren't real physical," Izzo said. "We weren't as strong as most of my teams have been. We just kind of rallied around. My assistants did a great job of getting guys to buy into the team-team defense. You always play some team defense, but we're almost strictly team defense. Individually we're average."

So despite having a bunch of average individual defenders, very little in the way of returning scoring, and a bunch of no-name recruits that only a few big schools wanted, Izzo has his team back into the Final Four, where it seems like he pops up just about every other year. It's clearly an incredible achievement. So where does this one rank for him?

Izzo was noncommittal, but it's clear that this group is special to him as the "most improbable" one.

"If I say it's the best one ever, I'll have the team calling and threatening me," Izzo said after the Spartans' win against Louisville. "If I say it was one of the surprise teams, I'll have Kalin [Lucas] and them calling me. If I say it was my favorite, Draymond [Green] will be mad for no longer than life. Alan Anderson just texted me last night, he was part of the '05 team, that if he hadn't gotten hurt, we'd have had a chance to win it that year. They were all different in a lot of ways, but I think this was the most improbable."

He's underselling it big-time there. This is Tom Izzo's masterpiece. A team filled with non-elite parts that became elite by coming together. And if there's anything more indicative of his tenure at Michigan State than this group of kids, I'm not sure what it is.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 01:39 PM

NHL

Saturday, April 4

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Philadelphia - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia +123 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Carolina - Over 5.5 500

Pittsburgh - 2:00 PM ET Columbus +118 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Columbus - Over 5.5 500

Vancouver - 3:00 PM ET Vancouver +140 500 HAT TRICK
Winnipeg - Over 5 500

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