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**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2015, 04:40 PM

NBA knowledge
Hot Teams
-- Brooklyn won five in row, nine of last 11 games (2-9 last 11 HF). Raptors won/covered last three games (2-5 last seven AU).
-- Celtics won three of last four games (7-3 last ten HF).
-- Detroit won five of its last seven games (6-7 last 13 AU). Bulls also won five of last seven (6-2 last eight HF).
-- Spurs won eight of last nine games, covering last five.
-- Pelicans won/covered their last three games (3-1 last four AF).
-- Portland won four of its last five games (1-3 last four AF).

Cold Teams
-- Knicks lost their last eight games (2-6 vs spread); Wizards lost five of their last seven (6-3 last nine HF).
-- Hornets lost nine of last thirteen games (11-5 last 16 AU). Pacers lost nine of last eleven games (1-5 last six HF).
-- Bucks lost eight of their last ten games (4-2 last six AU).
-- Memphis lost its last four games (0-4 vs spread). Thunder lost three of last four games (3-1 last four AU).
-- Orlando lost 10 of its last 11 games (0-2 AF). Minnesota lost its last five games (0-4 last four HU).
-- Nuggets lost five of last seven games (1-3 last four AU).
-- Sacramento lost its last three games (2-4 last six HU).
-- Lakers lost three of last four games (2-4 last six HU).

Series Records
-- Wizards won their last six games with New York.
-- Pacers won seven of last nine games with Charlotte.
-- Nets-Raptors split their last ten meetings.
-- Celtics lost five of last seven games with Milwaukee.
-- Thunder-Grizzlies split their last ten games.
-- Home side won last six Orlando-Minnesota games.
-- Pistons lost four of last five visits to Chicago.
-- Spurs won last six games with Denver, covering 3 of last 4.
-- Kings won four of last six games with New Orleans.
-- Lakers lost their last four games with Portland.

Totals
-- Three of last four NY-Washington games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Indiana games went over the total.
-- Last five Toronto road games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Buck-Celtic games stayed under.
-- Last three Thunder-Memphis games stayed under.
-- Three of last four Orlando-Minnesota games went over.
-- Four of last five Detroit-Chicago games went over.
-- Three of last four Nugget-Spur games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Pelican-King games went over.
-- Four of last five Portland-Laker games stayed under.

Back-to-Backs
-- None

East vs West

SU: West 241-172 ATS: West 214-196-3
East teams HF vs West: 53-57
East teams HU vs West: 45-52
West teams HF vs East: 81-78-3
West teams HU vs East: 24-20

**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2015, 04:44 PM

Pro Basketball Trend Report

NEW YORK (14 - 61) at WASHINGTON (42 - 33) - 4/3/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 29-44 ATS (-19.4 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 26-39 ATS (-16.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
NEW YORK is 21-30 ATS (-12.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
NEW YORK is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
WASHINGTON is 30-43 ATS (-17.3 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 39-52 ATS (-18.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 34-47 ATS (-17.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 129-171 ATS (-59.1 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 6-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-3 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CHARLOTTE (32 - 42) at INDIANA (32 - 43) - 4/3/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 197-142 ATS (+40.8 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 55-42 ATS (+8.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 45-32 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 25-41 ATS (-20.1 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 6-3 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 7-3 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

TORONTO (45 - 30) at BROOKLYN (34 - 40) - 4/3/2015, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
TORONTO is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
TORONTO is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 9-7 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 10-8 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

MILWAUKEE (37 - 38) at BOSTON (34 - 41) - 4/3/2015, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 323-390 ATS (-106.0 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 42-32 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 41-31 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 116-84 ATS (+23.6 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 6-3 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

OKLAHOMA CITY (42 - 33) at MEMPHIS (51 - 24) - 4/3/2015, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 13-8 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 12-10 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
11 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

ORLANDO (22 - 53) at MINNESOTA (16 - 59) - 4/3/2015, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 4-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

DETROIT (29 - 46) at CHICAGO (45 - 30) - 4/3/2015, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 43-29 ATS (+11.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 53-75 ATS (-29.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-23 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 7-4 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 7-4 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

DENVER (28 - 47) at SAN ANTONIO (49 - 26) - 4/3/2015, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after scoring 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 897-784 ATS (+34.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 710-604 ATS (+45.6 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 457-381 ATS (+37.9 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 401-337 ATS (+30.3 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 301-241 ATS (+35.9 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 184-138 ATS (+32.2 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 42-28 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 117-84 ATS (+24.6 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 5-5 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NEW ORLEANS (40 - 34) at SACRAMENTO (26 - 48) - 4/3/2015, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 35-59 ATS (-29.9 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 184-228 ATS (-66.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 42-31 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 28-43 ATS (-19.3 Units) in all games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 31-46 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 18-28 ATS (-12.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SACRAMENTO is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SACRAMENTO is 14-23 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
SACRAMENTO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 5-5 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 5-5 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

PORTLAND (48 - 26) at LA LAKERS (20 - 54) - 4/3/2015, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 125-80 ATS (+37.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 157-197 ATS (-59.7 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 49-67 ATS (-24.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 6-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2015, 04:46 PM

College basketball knowledge
Since 1987, in national semifinal games with two #1-seeds playing, underdogs are 5-1 vs spread. Kentucky beat Wisconsin by point in this game LY, but Wildcats were 8-seed then, they're 38-0 now. Kentucky allowed 53 ppg in winning first four tourney games (1-3 vs spread); they're favored by single digits here, bargain because of close call vs Notre Dame in regional final. Badgers won last ten games, scoring 80.5 ppg in winning first four tourney games; they are 37-89 (41.7%) from arc in NCAAs. Kentucky is holding teams to 26.7% from arc. Wisconsin was held to 61.7 ppg in three losses this season.

Duke beat Michigan State 81-71 in November down street from the Lucas Oil Dome, but beating Izzo in March is lot harder than doing it in November. Spartans did shoot 62.5% inside arc that night, but 5-20 outside arc. Michigan State won eight of its last nine games, with OT loss to Wisconsin in Big 14 final- two of their last three wins were vs ACC teams. Duke allowed 53.8 ppg in first four wins in this tourney; Blue Devils allowed 74+ points in all four losses. Over last 10 years, favorites are 17-11-1 vs spread in Final Four games; that said, this is 4th year in row where a 1-seed plays a #4 or lower seed in national semis; underdogs are 3-0 vs the spread in those games. .

**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2015, 04:47 PM

Hot teams
-- Chicago won its last three games, allowing five goals. Buffalo won its last two games, after losing 12 of its previous 13.
-- Dallas Stars won five of their last seven games.
-- Ducks won four in row, eight of last ten games.
-- Sharks won three of their last four games.

Cold teams
-- Canadiens lost four of their last five games. Devils lost last six games, scoring 7 goals.
-- Blues lost five of their last seven games.
-- Colorado lost five of its last six games.
-- Arizona lost ten of its last twelve games.

Series records
-- Devils lost four of last five games with Montreal.
-- Sabres lost their last six games with Chicago.
-- Blues lost five of last seven games with Dallas.
-- Ducks won their last four games with Colorado.
-- Sharks won four of last five games with Arizona.

Totals
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Montreal-New Jesey games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Chicago games.
-- Four of Dallas Stars' last five games went over.
-- Last three Colorado-Anaheim games stayed under.
-- Six of last nine Arizona-San Jose games stayed under.

Back-to-back
-- Montreal is 8-4 on road if it played night before.
-- Chicago is 5-3 on road if it played night before.
-- Blues are 6-4 on road if they played night before.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2015, 04:48 PM

Pro Hockey Trend Report

MONTREAL (47-22-0-9, 103 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (31-33-0-13, 75 pts.) - 4/3/2015, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 6-2 (+2.9 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-2-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.1 Units)

CHICAGO (47-24-0-6, 100 pts.) at BUFFALO (22-47-0-8, 52 pts.) - 4/3/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 51-48 ATS (-26.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 40-33 ATS (-25.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 15-19 ATS (-22.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 6-1 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
BUFFALO is 198-197 ATS (+432.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
BUFFALO is 43-116 ATS (-185.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 18-63 ATS (+151.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-0-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.7 Units)

ST LOUIS (47-23-0-7, 101 pts.) at DALLAS (37-30-0-10, 84 pts.) - 4/3/2015, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 4-10 ATS (-10.1 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.6 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 196-133 ATS (+19.4 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
DALLAS is 6-20 ATS (+28.4 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
DALLAS is 6-16 ATS (-13.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-6 (+2.6 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-6-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.4 Units)

COLORADO (35-30-0-12, 82 pts.) at ANAHEIM (50-22-0-7, 107 pts.) - 4/3/2015, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 50-29 ATS (+88.8 Units) in all games this season.
ANAHEIM is 447-376 ATS (+57.3 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 33-13 ATS (+14.6 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 20-7 ATS (+9.9 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
ANAHEIM is 24-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 54-22 ATS (+20.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 90-76 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 52-38 ATS (+12.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 13-7 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 6-2 (+2.7 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 6-2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.3 Units)

ARIZONA (23-46-0-8, 54 pts.) at SAN JOSE (38-30-0-9, 85 pts.) - 4/3/2015, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 23-54 ATS (+100.2 Units) in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 9-31 ATS (+60.1 Units) second half of the season this season.
ARIZONA is 5-24 ATS (+46.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
SAN JOSE is 38-39 ATS (+92.2 Units) in all games this season.
SAN JOSE is 8-13 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
SAN JOSE is 14-16 ATS (-6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SAN JOSE is 7-10 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 8-4 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 8-4-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.5 Units)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2015, 04:51 PM

Game of the Day: Thunder at Grizzlies

Apr 02, 2015

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (-4, OFF)

The Thunder, who will enter Friday with a 1 1/2-game lead on New Orleans for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, began a run of five straight foes currently locked into postseason slots with a wild 135-131 loss against Dallas on Wednesday. Russell Westbrook produced another triple-double with 31 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists for Oklahoma City, which next goes home to take on Houston and San Antonio, two of the hotter teams in the league. The Rockets are tied with the Grizzlies for the second spot in the West, which might mean avoiding defending NBA champion San Antonio in the first round. Memphis snapped an ill-timed three-game losing streak with a 97-83 win over Sacramento on Monday in the opener of a four-game homestand.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, FSN Oklahoma, SportSouth (Memphis)

LINE HISTORY: Online books opened the line between Memphis -4 and -4.5.

INJURY REPORT: Thunder - C Steven Adams (Questionable, ankle), F Nick Collison (Out indefinitely, ankle), F Serge Ibaka (Out indefinitely, knee). Grizzlies - F Zach Randolph (Probable, elbow), G Tony Allen (Doubtful, hamstring).

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Thunder (-7.5) + Grizzlies (-8.1) + home court (-3.0) = Grizzlies -3.6

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "At home, the Thunder are 23-6 SU and outscoring teams by over 9 PPG when favored. But as a road underdog, they are 4-16 SU and being outscored by 8.1 PPG. Losing three straight may not have been a big deal, even though they were handed their worst home loss of the season twice in a row. That's because the three opponents were: Cleveland, Golden State and San Antonio." Covers Expert Bryan Power.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (42-33 SU, 37-36-2 ATS, 36-37-1 O/U): Westbrook, who has 10 triple-doubles this season, can often carry his team, but he does need support and much of it has come from reserve Anthony Morrow. The shooting guard made 6-of-9 3-pointers en route to 32 points against Dallas and has hit a whopping 52.5 percent of his long-range attempts since the start of February. Regardless of how well those two produce on the offensive end, the Thunder have to solve some defensive woes that will not get any better if big man Steven Adams - who sprained his ankle Wednesday - is added to a heap of injured players who excel on that end of the court, including Serge Ibaka, Andre Roberson, Nick Collison and superstar Kevin Durant.

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (51-24 SU, 35-38-2 ATS, 32-41-2 O/U): Memphis is missing a key defender as well in the form of forward Tony Allen, who has missed two straight games with a hamstring injury and is considered questionable to return Friday. Although the opponent in the slump-busting win on Monday was Sacramento, the Grizzlies - who had uncharacteristically given up at least 103 points in each of the three straight losses - felt good about clamping down on the defensive end. "We played Memphis Grizzlies basketball, which is defense," said reserve center Kosta Koufos, who had eight points, a season-high 12 rebounds and a season high-tying three blocks against the Kings.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Grizzlies are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Friday games.
* Over is 9-2 in Thunder last 11 road games.
* Under is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 51.76 percent of Covers users are backing OKC.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2015, 04:55 PM

Vegas oddsmakers tell the truth about betting tanking NBA teams

Apr 02, 2015

With fewer than 10 games remaining for NBA teams, we’ve officially reached that point in the season where the cream of the crop are fixated on jockeying for playoff position while the league’s bottom feeders commence the process of looking toward both the June draft and summer free agency period in an attempt to build a more competitive roster.

This is the time of year when coaches and front office personnel seriously consider a variety of ancillary factors in regards to the product they put out on the court each night.

Will Steve Kerr and the Warriors provide more rest than usual to stars like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson? Are there any teams in the Western Conference paying extra close attention to the standings in an effort to lock down a more favorable first-round matchup?

And, most importantly, will teams like the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Orlando Magic, among others, intentionally try to lose basketball games in an effort to secure a more favorable lottery selection?

The concept of a professional sports franchise intentionally losing games now in order to benefit in the future, otherwise known as “tanking,” is nothing new. Rumors abound everywhere from the NFL to the NBA to the NHL toward the end of each and every season that those situated at the bottom of the standings are actively trying to lose as often as possible in an attempt to acquire the services of the most elite talent set to enter each league’s respective draft.

But when it comes to wagering on professional sports, two integral questions must be answered in regards to this phenomenon: Is tanking something that is actually taking place and, if so, is there an edge to be gained in regards to the betting lines offered on the clubs in question?

The answer to our first inquiry is somewhat murky, as the common misconception in regards to tanking is that it’s the players on the court each night who are tasked with making sure the franchise comes up short of victory.

“The concept of tanking applies to the NBA front offices who are intentionally putting an inferior product on the floor, because the players are out there trying hard every night,” Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of race and sports at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told Covers. “And those front offices who are tanking have been doing so all along. Look around the league. The Knicks shut down Carmelo Anthony, the Timberwolves have taken a very cautious approach regarding injured players and the 76ers have actively been working to assemble one of the worst rosters possible.

“The Lakers most certainly are not tanking, as Monday night’s overtime win against Philadelphia was a must-lose situation for Los Angeles if tanking intentions were present,” said Sherman.

Perhaps the Lakers are trying to close out the current season on a high note, but that doesn’t mean Los Angeles’ 29 professional counterparts share the same frame of mind.

“I don’t know if I would use the word ‘tank,’ but if you mean lack of effort, I would circle the Magic and Knicks,” John Avello, director of race and sports at Wynn Encore Las Vegas told Covers.

At the close of business Wednesday night, the Magic were 1-4 both SU and ATS over its last five outings while the Knicks were 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS over its last 10 contests.

Avello elaborated to explain his approach when it comes to setting lines for games that involve teams who may be putting forth something less than 100 percent effort at this point in the season.

“If so-called ‘tanking’ teams are playing a team vying for a playoff spot, I’ll use two to three points higher than my power rating,” said Avello. “If not, then I use my normal rating.”

In regards to the specific bettor who attacks these types of situations, the question becomes whether or not the sophisticated gambler looks to gain an edge by identifying the teams with nothing to play for.

“Bettors only care to bet against the tanking teams if they are playing a squad that needs the game for a playoff spot or to improve their position,” said Avello. “Otherwise, nobody cares, just like the team.”

“The public is fading the tanking teams at this time of year, definitely not supporting them,” said Sherman. “For the most part, the general public either plays against them or passes. You really don’t see any sharp play involved in situations like these.”

Based on Avello’s thoughts regarding tanking teams playing organizations fighting for their playoff lives, the upcoming matchups may be worth monitoring:

Knicks: vs. Indiana (4/8), vs. Milwaukee (4/10)
76ers: at Charlotte (4/4), vs. Milwaukee (4/13)
Magic: at Milwaukee (4/4), vs. Chicago (4/8), vs. Toronto (4/10), at Brooklyn (4/15)
Timberwolves: at Portland (4/8), vs. Oklahoma City (4/15)
Lakers: vs. Portland (4/3), vs. LA Clippers (4/5), at LA Clippers (4/7), vs. Dallas (4/12)

**Udog** · 04-03-2015, 07:46 PM

Thank you, Bum! I appreciate you putting this together. I didn't even think to look for it before I started posting so we've got everything twice. Maybe that'll make us double smart tonight!

Our entire area was without power after a tornado tore up the lines last night. I guess we got it back just about the time you started this thread.

**Udog** · 04-03-2015, 07:50 PM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, April 4

Wisconsin @ Kentucky

Game 821-822
April 4, 2015 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wisconsin
78.181
Kentucky
81.057
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 3
126
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kentucky
by 5
131 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wisconsin
(+5); Under

Michigan State @ Duke

Game 823-824
April 4, 2015 @ 6:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
72.433
Duke
75.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Duke
by 3
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
by 5 1/2
138
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan State
(+5 1/2); Over

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 4

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WISCONSIN (35 - 3) vs. KENTUCKY (38 - 0) - 4/4/2015, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
WISCONSIN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 0-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 1-0 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN ST (27 - 11) vs. DUKE (33 - 4) - 4/4/2015, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games this season.
DUKE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
DUKE is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) on Saturday games this season.
DUKE is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
DUKE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
DUKE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
DUKE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DUKE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
DUKE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAB
Short Sheet

Saturday, April 4

Wisconsin (#1) vs Kentucky (#1)

Kentucky 8-2 SU & 3-5-2 ATS in 10 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky 3-0 SU & 1-0-2 ATS last 3 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky beat Wisconsin 74-73 in last year's (2014) Final 4
Wisconsin is 0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS in their only 2 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky 1-3 Over/Under last 4 Final 4 games

Michigan State (#7) vs Duke (#1)

Duke 4-1 SU & ATS last 5 Final 4 appearances
Duke 2-1 Over/Under in last 3 Final 4 games
Duke's last Final 4 appearance was 2010
MSU 0-2 SU & ATS last 2 Final 4 games
MSU 1-4 SU & ATS last 5 Final 4 appearances
MSU 2-3 Over/Under last 5 Final 4 games
MSU's last Final 4 appearance was 2010

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 4

Since 1987, in national semifinal games with two #1-seeds playing, underdogs are 5-1 vs spread. Kentucky beat Wisconsin by point in this game LY, but Wildcats were 8-seed then, they're 38-0 now. Kentucky allowed 53 ppg in winning first four tourney games (1-3 vs spread); they're favored by single digits here, bargain because of close call vs Notre Dame in regional final. Badgers won last ten games, scoring 80.5 ppg in winning first four tourney games; they are 37-89 (41.7%) from arc in NCAAs. Kentucky is holding teams to 26.7% from arc. Wisconsin was held to 61.7 ppg in three losses this season.

Duke beat Michigan State 81-71 in November down street from the Lucas Oil Dome, but beating Izzo in March is lot harder than doing it in November. Spartans did shoot 62.5% inside arc that night, but 5-20 outside arc. Michigan State won eight of its last nine games, with OT loss to Wisconsin in Big 14 final- two of their last three wins were vs ACC teams. Duke allowed 53.8 ppg in first four wins in this tourney; Blue Devils allowed 74+ points in all four losses. Over last 10 years, favorites are 17-11-1 vs spread in Final Four games; that said, this is 4th year in row where a 1-seed plays a #4 or lower seed in national semis; underdogs are 3-0 vs the spread in those games.

NCAAB

Saturday, April 4

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Trend Report
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6:09 PM
MICHIGAN STATE vs. DUKE
No trends available
Duke is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Duke's last 5 games

8:49 PM
WISCONSIN vs. KENTUCKY
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky's last 5 games
Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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NCAAB

Saturday, April 4

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NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Final Four
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Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils (-5, 138.5)

Spartans’ early turnovers vs. Blue Devils’ strong second halves

One of the reasons Michigan State has made it to the Final Four has been its ability to take care of the basketball. Through the first three games of the tournament, MSU coughed the ball up only 20 total times including just five turnovers against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16.

Those wheels wobbled a bit in the Elite Eight, with eight turnovers in the first half versus Louisville and 13 total turnovers for the game. The Spartans, overall, aren’t that sticky when it comes to taking care of the ball. They average 11.3 turnovers per game, the most of the four teams remaining in the tournament.

In its 81-71 loss to Duke in the regular season, Michigan State recorded 10 turnovers in the first half and 13 for the game, leading to 24 points for the Blue Devils. The Spartans fell behind – down 40-33 at half – and couldn’t battle back with Duke turning it up in the final 20 minutes.

The Blue Devils are among the best second-half teams in the tournament, averaging 40.5 points per second half this season – most of any of the Final Four contenders. Unlike, Louisville’s offense, Duke can pile it on and makes it very tough for even the most talented teams to dig themselves out of a hole. Michigan State pulled to within three points of the Blue Devils in the second half of that November 18 matchup before Duke erupted for a 13-3 run to seal the win.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-5, 131)

Badgers’ lack of bigs vs. Wildcats’ size surplus

The Badgers aren’t used to looking up at their opponents. Wisconsin came into the tournament with an average height of 79.2 inches or 6-foot-6, behind only the Kentucky Wildcats at 79.3 inches. It just so happen UK is Wisconsin’ tall task to topple for a shot at the national title.

These teams battled last year in the Final Four, but Kentucky ran a much smaller lineup, with two true big men and three guards. This season, the Wildcats march out a starting frontcourt that goes 7-foot, 6-foot-11, and 6-foot-10, and draws another 7-footer off the bench. Only one NBA team – the Minnesota Timberwolves – has more height than Kentucky.

Wisconsin tops out at 7-footer Frank Kaminsky and declines to 6-foot-9 Sam Dekker and 6-foot-7 Nigel Hayes in the starting lineup, bringing in 6-foot-9 Duje Dukan off the pine. There’s not a lot of depth when it comes to real size for the Badgers, who could get caught short handed if foul trouble comes into play. Wisconsin was whistled for 21 personal fouls in the Elite Eight against Arizona, which matched up pretty well with the Badgers in terms of height, and 13 of those calls were on the frontcourt. Kaminsky had four personal fouls alone, his highest total of the season.

Kentucky has drawn an average of 21.7 fouls per game in its last three NCAA contests, attempting 26.7 free throws per outing in that span. And the Wildcats make them count too, shooting better than 77 percent from the charity stripe. The Badgers were called for just 12.4 fouls a game on the year but that average has jumped to 17.3 in the last three NCAA games.

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NCAAB

Saturday, April 4

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NCAA Final Four betting news and sportsbook notes
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The NCAA tournament has been trimmed from 68 to just four teams heading into the weekend, with the Duke Blue Devils battling the Michigan State Spartans and the Kentucky Wildcats facing the Wisconsin Badgers in Indianapolis Saturday.

These Final Four contenders are quite familiar with each other. Duke and MSU played back in November as part of the Champions Classic, which funny enough was held in Indianapolis. For UK and Wisconsin, this is déjà vu as these teams met in last year’s Final Four.

We look at those past matchups and tell you what to “Take” and what to “Leave” when it comes to betting this weekend’s action:

Duke Blue Devils 81, Michigan State Spartans 71

TAKE: Duke’s 13-3 run in the second half. Michigan State trimmed the Blue Devils’ lead to as slim as three points before talent took over. Duke has many more scoring options, with four starters – all but Jahlil Okafor – scoring in double figures versus Gonzaga. The Spartans have struggled at times to put up points and Travis Trice has shouldered the lion’s share of the scoring in the NCAA.

LEAVE: Michigan State’s rotation. The Spartans were still trying to iron out their lineup in this massive non-conference game and it was apparent Tom Izzo was more concerned about finding the best rotation before Big Ten play than knocking off Duke. Michigan State had seven players log 19 or more minutes of floor time and marched out two walk-ons. Chemistry was an issue in that game. It’s not now.

Kentucky Wildcats 74, Wisconsin Badgers 73

TAKE: Wisconsin’s eight turnovers. The Badgers are one of the very best teams in the country at taking care of the basketball – coughing up the ball an average of just 7.4 times per game. And as Notre Dame showed in the Elite Eight, turning the ball over seven times and going 29 minutes without giving it away, that’s what you need to do to hang with Kentucky. The Badgers can’t afford to let the Wildcats capitalize on mistakes and score buckets in transition.

LEAVE: Frank Kaminsky’s eight points. Kentucky rolled out a much smaller lineup last season and rotated different players and double teams on Wisconsin’s big man, forcing him to give up the ball and put the pressure on the Badgers’ other scorers. This time around, UK has the size and skill to go one-on-one with “Frank the Tank” and honestly can’t afford to give Wisconsin’s perimeter players open looks. Kaminsky will have more room to operate on the blocks Saturday.

Big stadium blanks

The Final Four games are being played inside Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday – a massive 70,000-seat, domed football stadium that hosted the Super Bowl in 2012.

The venue could plague long-range shooters with its change in field of depth from the regional final venues, and it’s caught the attention of one Las Vegas oddsmaker who is keeping an eye on the totals for this weekend’s games.

“When you play in these football stadiums it’s much different than playing in a smaller gym or even these 20,000-seat arenas,” John Avello, director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, tells Covers. “When you go to these football stadiums – like Indianapolis or in Dallas – the crowds are pushed back and the depth perception is much different.”

Avello recalls the 2011 Final Four, which was held in NRG Stadium in Houston. The Final Four teams – VCU, UConn, Butler and Kentucky – shot a combined 119 for 347 (34 percent) from the field and 36 for 128 from 3-point range (28 percent) in the three games. Shooting in the final was even worse with Butler and UConn going 31 for 120 (25 percent) from the floor and 10 for 44 (23 percent) from beyond the arc. Those games went 1-2 Over/Under.

Easter Weekend in Vegas

According to Las Vegas sportsbooks, Easter is one holiday that doesn’t turn out the tourists. Unlike Christmas, New Year’s, and even Columbus Day, Easter’s four-day weekend is more about spending time at home than the casino.

“This is a dead week with Easter,” says Bert Osborne, sportsbook director at the South Point Las Vegas. “We don’t expect too many tourist coming to town.”

Bookmakers are projecting a slower-than-usual Final Four weekend simply because of the holiday and says the books will be packed predominantly with locals.

“Yeah, it’s not the best for business with the way (the Final Four) has fallen on the holiday,” says Avello. “It will be busy, but it hasn’t had the same build up as pas years.”

NCAA futures and props

Depending on which book you ask about NCAA futures liability, they all have a different cheering interest for this weekend’s Final Four.

Some shops took nothing but Kentucky futures bets throughout the season and a Wildcats win would hit them for a healthy loss. Others are holding a lot of handle on Duke to win the national title while others are sitting pretty, with no true liability heading into the weekend.

According to CG Technology, which operates sportsbooks at the M Resort, Cosmopolitan, and Venetian among others, a Duke championship is the worst result for them while a Wisconsin title would be the most profitable.

“We took a five-figure wager on Duke 5/1 and another at 7/1 throughout the season,” Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports for CG Technology, tells Covers. “So we’ve been cheering against the Blue Devils all season.”

Online at Sportsbook.ag, oddsmaker Peter Childs is sweating his “Kentucky to go undefeated prop”, which carries a lot of liability riding into the Final Four and possible national title game.

“We have horrendous liability on Kentucky going undefeated so at some point I need them to lose,” Childs tells Covers. “I would sacrifice handle over paying out tickets as high as 10-1 on Kentucky going undefeated, so if Kentucky were to lose to Wisconsin, I would by no means miss them on Monday.”

Avello offered a similar prop on Kentucky this season, offering the Wildcats versus the field. Kentucky drew a lot of action but as the tournament got closer more money came in on the field to win the NCAA – not UK.

“We were taking a lot back on the field, so if Kentucky goes down we’ll be OK,” says Avello. “I was able to sell a lot of that liability off.”

Biggest national title game ever?

You have to know TV executives are drooling over the possible Duke-versus-Kentucky matchup in the Final Four, and sportsbooks are cheering for this dream showdown in their own way.

“If those two teams get there it will be a record everything: record ratings, record handle,” says Simbal. “You have Kentucky’s undefeated story going against Duke. You can’t ask for a better final than that.”

Simbal says a Duke-Kentucky championship would likely generate great two-way action, but could also create some liability on the moneyline. Kentucky bettors would lay the points and Duke backers would ignore the spread and take the Blue Devils on the moneyline to win outright.

“It’s what people do in championship games,” he says. “Lay the favorite and bet the dog on the moneyline. People will want to lay the Duke +200 instead of taking the points.”

Online sportsbook Bookmaker.eu is a little different on a possible superpower matchup between Duke and Kentucky, and would much rather see these two public teams go down to erase their futures liability.

“Not having Kentucky playing on Monday would hurt some,” says John Lester of Bookmaker.eu, “but not enough to fret over. And given the futures liability, we’d rather not have them in the picture.”

As far as the worst title game matchup, a Michigan State-Wisconsin game would likely drop the audience and the betting interest, especially since it would be the team’s third encounter this season. Wisconsin knocked off MSU in the Big Ten title game 80-69 in OT – and defeated the Spartans 68-61 in Madison on March 1, covering in both games.

“No one wants to see these two teams play again,” says Simbal. “It doesn’t have the same appeal as a Duke-Kentucky final would, that’s for sure.”

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Friday's NBA and NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/2

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