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**StarDust Bum** · 03-25-2015, 11:12 PM

Sweet 16 - West Regional

March 25, 2015

The West Region of this season’s NCAA Tournament has pretty much gone chalk with three of the top four seeds advancing to the Sweet 16 Round. This Thursday at the Staples Center, two of those four teams will take the next step towards winning this region and a spot in this year’s Final Four.

ODDS TO WIN NCAA TOURNAMENT WEST REGIONAL - SPORTSBOOK.AG
School Odds
Arizona 5/6
Wisconsin 8/5
North Carolina 7/1
Xavier 20/1

West Regional- No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Wisconsin (TBS, 7:47 p.m. ET)
Venue: Staples Center
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Betting Odds: Wisconsin -6 ½, Total 144

The Tar Heels are perennial threats to go deep in this tournament and they punched their ticket to this year’s Sweet 16 with a tight 67-65 victory against No.13 Harvard as 10-point favorites in their opener followed by last Saturday’s 87-78 victory against No. 5 Arkansas as five-point favorites. North Carolina is now 5-1 straight-up in its last six games while going 4-2 against the spread. The total has gone OVER in three of its last four games.

Freshman guard/forward Justin Jackson was the hero against the Crimson with four of his team-high 14 points sealing the win after the Tar Heels led by as many as 16 points in that game. It was junior guard Marcus Paige’s turn to carry the load against the Razorbacks as he has done all season long with 22 points, six rebounds and five steals to help pace that victory. On an injury note, starting forward Kennedy Meeks remains 'doubtful' for Thursday with bad knee.

The top seed in the West, Wisconsin won its first two games against No. 16 Coastal Carolina and No. 8 Oregon by a combined 21 points but it could not cover a double-digit spread in either contest. The Badgers have just one SU loss in their last 19 games, but they are only 8-10-1 ATS during this same stretch.

Much of the credit for Wisconsin’s success this season has to go to the elevated play of senior forward Frank Kaminsky. He scored 27 points in his tournament opener while pulling down 12 rebounds and in his next time out against the Ducks he scored 16 points with seven boards. The Badgers are averaging 71.9 points per game, but their primary strength still lies in a defense that is holding opponents to just 56.8 PPG.

Betting Trends:

-- The Tar Heels have failed to cover in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games and the total has gone OVER in 15 of their last 21 games played at a neutral site.

-- The Badgers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the NCAA Tournament and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 13 games following a SU win.

-- These two last met 2011 with North Carolina coming away with a 60-57 victory, but with Wisconsin covering as a seven-point road underdog.

West Regional: No. 6 Xavier Musketeers vs. No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (TBS, 10:17 p.m. ET)
Venue: Staples Center
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Betting Odds: Arizona -10 ½, Total 135 ½

The prospect for a deep run by Xavier did not look too good after getting blown-out by Villanova by 17 points in the Big East Tournament Final, but it has gotten the job done so far with convincing wins (SU and ATS) over No. 11 Ole Miss and No. 14 Georgia State in this tournament. The Musketeers are now 4-1 ATS in their last five games with total staying UNDER in four of those contests.

The big man in the middle of Xavier’s lineup is senior center Matt Stainbrook. He has combined for 29 points, 17 rebounds and seven assists in his first two tournament games. Sophomore forward Jalen Reynolds had the hot hand against Georgia State with 21 of the Musketeers’ 75 points in the eight-point victory. Overall, Xavier is averaging 73.6 PPG and shooting 47.3 percent from the field.

Arizona has been on a major roll that dates back to mid-February with a SU 13-game winning streak while going a profitable 10-3 ATS. The Wildcats failed to cover against No. 15 Texas Southern in their tournament opener in a 93-72 romp as 23 ½-point favorites, but they covered a 10-point spread in this past Saturday’s 73-58 victory against No. 10 Ohio State. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games.

The Wildcats have averaged 82.7 PPG in their last seven outings while holding teams to 60.9 points at the other end of the court. On the season, they are ranked sixth in the nation shooting the ball with a 48.9 field goal percentage. Arizona’s leading scorer this season with 14 PPG has been freshman forward Stanley Johnson, but he was held to just four points against the Buckeyes. In his place, junior guard led the way in that game with a team-high 19 points.

Betting Trends:

-- The Musketeers are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six neutral-site games.

-- The Wildcats are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games against a team from the Big East.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-25-2015, 11:13 PM

Bracket Analysis - Sweet 16

March 24, 2015

The field of 68 schools for the 2015 NCAA Tournament has been reduced to 16. There are no major surprises with 13 teams remaining from Power Five leagues. The other three -- Gonzaga, Wichita State and Xavier -- haven't been able to claim Cinderella status for some time now.

Hell, the lowest remaining seed is No. 11 UCLA, which has won more national titles (11) than any other school in Tournament history. The Bruins, who were fortunate to rally past SMU in the opening round, blitzed UAB to advance to the South Region semifinals in Houston. They'll face Gonzaga, which is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009.

The No. 1 overall seed, Kentucky, remains alive and unbeaten. In its way for the Midwest Region semifinal in Cleveland, UK finds a West Virginia team that beat it in the 2010 East Region finals at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse.

Bob Huggins must be thinking, 'where is Joe Mazulla when I need him?' The back-up point guard moved into a starting role and produced a career-best 17 points to lead the Mountaineers past the 'Cats (73-66), who were led by John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe.

John Calipari's team took out Hampton (79-56) and Cincinnati (64-51), but it failed to cover the spread in both spots. As of Tuesday morning, most books had UK installed as a 13-point 'chalk' with a total of 136.5 points.

WVU took the cash in both outings this past weekend, beating Buffalo 68-62 as a 4.5-point favorite before Sunday's 69-59 win over Maryland as a 1.5-point 'chalk.' After missing four straight games with a foot injury, Juwan Staten (14.1 points per game, 4.8 APG) led his team past the Bulls with 15 points and seven assists.

Gary Browne, who had missed three consecutive games prior to the Tournament, had 14 points and five steals against the Terrapins. Devin Williams had a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds for the Mountaineers.

WVU has been an underdog 10 times this year, going 5-5 ATS with four outright victories. This will be the first double-digit 'dog situation for Huggins's squad. The largest previous 'dog spot came at Kansas when the Mountaineers lost 76-69 in overtime as nine-point puppies.

The other game in Cleveland will pit third-seeded Notre Dame vs. seventh-seeded Wichita State. Just hours after Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey's mother passed away on Saturday morning, the Irish beat Butler 67-64 in OT. However, the Bulldogs covered the number as 3.5-point underdogs.

Steve Vasturia led Notre Dame with 20 points and six rebounds, while Jerian Grant finished with 16 points, five rebounds and five assists.

Wichita St. trailed Indiana for most of the first 30 minutes in the first round, only to use a 15-3 surge to move in front of the Hoosiers. The Shockers held off a late IU rally to prevail by an 81-76 count thanks to 27 points from Fred VanVleet. Rob Baker added 15 points, five rebounds and five steals.

Gregg Marshall's team finally got the matchup it had been wanting for years in the Round of 32. Kansas refuses to play Wichita St. in the regular season, but the Jayhawks had no choice on Sunday afternoon in Omaha.

Wichita St. rallied from eight down late in the first half, scoring 13 of the last 15 points to take a 29-26 halftime lead over KU. The second half was all Shockers, who pulled away to collect a 78-65 win as one-point favorites.

Tekele Cotton scored a game-high 19 points, while VanVleet finished with 17 points, six rebounds, six assists and four steals. Baker and Evan Wessel finished with 12 points apiece, as Wessel knocked down 4-of-6 from 3-point range and pulled down nine boards.

As of Tuesday morning, most books had the Shockers favored by one point with a total of 137.5.

Most betting shops have Gonzaga as the third biggest 'chalk' this week, with the Bulldogs listed as 8.5-point favorites over UCLA. These West-coast squads will square off in Houston in the South Region semifinals.

The winner will get Duke or Utah. The Blue Devils have been tabbed as five-point favorites over the Utes.

Mike Krzyzewski's team blasted Robert Morris and San Diego St. to produce a pair of spread covers for its gambling supporters. Duke is now 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

With just one exception, form held in the West Region. The surprise guest for the semifinals at Staples Center in Los Angeles will be Xavier. Chris Mack's team, which is the Big East's only remaining representative, will take on top-seeded Arizona.

Xavier has won five of its last six games with the only defeat coming against Villanova in the Big East Tournament finals. The Musketeers blasted Ole Miss 76-57 as two-point 'chalk' before beating Ga. St. 75-67 as six-point favorites. Jalen Reynolds had a game-high 21 points in the win over the Panthers.

Arizona advanced with wins over Texas Southern (93-72) and Ohio St. (73-58). T.J. McConnell paced the Wildcats against the Buckeyes by tallying 19 points, six rebounds, five steals and six assists compared to only one turnover. Gabe York also had 19 points thanks to five treys, while Rondae Hollis-Jefferson finished with 11 points, 10 boards and five assists.

Most book have Sean Miller's squad listed as an 11-point favorite with a total of 136.

The other West semifinal will feature Wisconsin against North Carolina. The Badgers were favored by six early Tuesday morning, while the total was 142.5.

UNC advanced with wins over Harvard and Arkansas, but Kennedy Meeks is very 'doubtful' for Thursday's showdown against the Badgers. Meeks, who averages 11.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, injured his knee in the 87-78 win over the Razorbacks.

Marcus Paige was the catalyst against the Hogs with 22 points, six rebounds and five steals. J.P Tokoto torched Arkansas for 13 points, five rebounds, two steals and eight assists without a turnover.

Bo Ryan's squad moved on with victories over Coastal Carolina and Oregon, but it failed to cover the spread in both outings. Sam Dekker's 17 points led the Badgers to a 72-65 triumph over the Ducks.

In my Bracket Analysis column on Selection Sunday, I suggested that Villanova would be in trouble against the North Carolina St.-LSU winner. That turned out to be true with the Wolfpack sending the Wildcats home by virtue of a 71-68 win as a 10-point underdog. Mark Gottfried's team hooked up money-line supporters with a +375 payout (risk $100 to win $375).

N.C. St. was fortunate to get to the Round of 32, overcoming a 14-point halftime deficit in a 66-65 win over LSU. The Tigers, who led by as many as 16 in the second half, missed six straight free throws to end the game and gave up the game-winning bucket from BeeJay Anya with just a fraction of a second remaining.

N.C. St. will face Louisville in a battle of ACC adversaries. The Cardinals are favored by 2.5 point with the total set at 130. The Wolfpack won outright at U of L by a 74-65 count as a 10.5-point underdog on Valentine's Day.

Rick Pitino's squad advanced with wins over UC-Irvine and No. Iowa.

The other East semifinal at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse will feature Michigan State vs. Oklahoma. The Spartans knocked off Georgia before eliminating second-seeded Virginia for the second straight season. Tom Izzo improved his career NCAA Tournament record to 44-16 (73.3%) and has the Spartans two wins away from their seven Final Four appearance on Izzo's watch.

Oklahoma is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009. Lon Kruger has taken one of his previous teams to the Final Four, helping Florida to the 1994 national semifinals before losing to Grant Hill and Duke in Charlotte.

The Sooners beat Dayton 72-66 as five-point favorites in the Round of 32. They're two-point 'dogs against the Spartans.

UK remains the 'chalk' at Sportsbook.ag with -110 odds to win the national title. The next-shortest odds belong to Arizona (5/1), Duke (+700), Wisconsin (+750), Michigan State (10/1) and Gonzaga (15/1).

SPORTSBOOK.AG NCAA MEN'S TOURNAMENT (4/6/15)
School Odds
Kentucky 10/11
Arizona 5/1
Duke 7/1
Wisconsin 15/2
Michigan State 10/1
Gonzaga 15/1
North Carolina 25/1
Notre Dame 25/1
Utah 25/1
Louisville 30/1
N.C. State 40/1
Oklahoma 40/1
Wichita State 40/1
West Virginia 75/1
Xavier 75/1
UCLA 100/1

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The 'under' is 8-1-1 in UK's last 10 games, 5-0-1 in its last six.

-- The 'under' has cashed in four straight Duke games and six of its last seven.

-- Travel Note: Louisville didn't dispose of No. Iowa until nearly midnight Eastern on Sunday in Seattle, while N.C. St. polished off Villanova early Saturday night.

-- Mississippi State and AD Scott Stricklin hit a grand slam with Monday's announcement of Ben Howland as the SEC school's next head coach. Howland took UCLA to three consecutive Final Fours from 2006-2008, but he was fired in 2013 and has been out of work the last two seasons. Howland has wanted back into coaching bad, lobbying hard for jobs like Marquette and Oregon St. last year. The Bulldogs haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since 2009. They have only been to the Final Four once when Richard Williams led them there in 1996.

-- According to a CBS Sports report, Alabama is poised to make a run at Wichita St.'s Marshall with an offer north of $3 million per season. Don't expect Marshall to be interested, though, and I would think Murray St.'s Steve Prohm is the more likely successor for the job previously held by Anthony Grant.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-25-2015, 11:15 PM

Thursday's Top Action

March 25, 2015

WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS (30-4) vs. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (31-5)

Quicken Loans Arena - Cleveland, OH
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Wichita State -2, Total 138

No. 7 seed Wichita State looks to keep coach Mike Brey’s No. 3 seed Notre Dame from reaching the regional finals for the first time in his tenure.

After successfully and impressively outclassing in-state foe, Kansas, Witchita State enters the round of 16 as the rare higher-seeded favorite over Notre Dame. Given the Fighting Irish’s struggles to put away No. 14 Northeastern (69-65) and their need of overtime to rid themselves of No. 6 Butler (67-64), it’s easy to see why tournament seeding has been proverbially thrown out the window with these odds.

The Fighting Irish play well as underdogs (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) and were 5-1 ATS in neutral sites until failing to cover their aforementioned two tournament games. The Shockers are used to being favorites (as they have been in all but one game this season) and have amassed a 28-3 SU (16-14-1 ATS) ledger as such. Wichita State failed to cover the 6.5-point spread in the second round 81-76 win over Indiana, and their aforementioned win over Kansas (78-65 on Sunday) had a Pick line.

Wichita State was 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) versus NCAA tournament teams (including a split with Missouri Valley rival, Northern Iowa) before knocking off Indiana and Kansas. Notre Dame was 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) in its non-conference schedule against NCAA tournament teams and 6-2 SU (6-2 ATS) in ACC play (against the four other conference rivals that qualified for the tournament).

This is Coach Greg Marshall’s 11th appearance in the NCAA tournament (six times with Winthrop, four with Wichita State). The Shockers have a 7-3 NCAA tournament record since 2007 when Marshall took over, highlighted by a Final Four appearance in 2013 and a loss last season versus Kentucky after an undefeated regular season.

Mike Brey is appearing in his 12th NCAA tournament as head coach (two with Delaware, 10 with Notre Dame). Brey, coach of the Fighting Irish since 2000, is 8-9 in NCAA tournament play as the head man. This is Brey’s second appearance in the Sweet 16 (2003).

Historically, Wichita State and Notre Dame have never met, however Gregg Marshall is 1-0 versus Mike Brey, as Marshall’s Winthrop Eagles (as a No. 11 seed) beat sixth seeded Notre Dame (74-64) in 2007.

Gregg Marshall-coached teams are all about defense first (56.7 PPG allowed, 9th in NCAA). and this year’s version of Wichita State (56.7 PPG allowed, 9th in NCAA) does not stray from that blueprint If you can score on the Shockers, they get somewhat uncomfortable (0-3 ATS when giving up 70+ points; 2-6 ATS when giving up 65+ points).

Wichita State excels with preventing baskets via the assist (8.7 APG allowed, 3rd in NCAA; 0.65 A:TO, 5th in NCAA), which is one of Notre Dame’s strengths. What’s important about this is that it’s boom or bust when teams can shake free of Wichita State’s hard-guarding style (34.8% 3PT against, 210th in NCAA). Granted, the Missouri Valley Conference as a whole shoots the three at an above-average percentage (four MVC teams in NCAA top 100 in 3PT %), however, the Shockers had lots of difficulty stopping Indiana (11-for-22 3PT), and Notre Dame’s offense is just as good from three and more diverse in ways that it can score (61.3% True Shooting Pct).

Even though the pace should be quite controlled, with both teams ranking below 200th in NCAA in points per-possession, Wichita State should feel comfortable in its ability to score against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish don’t pressure the ball, and the Shockers mirror Notre Dame in a few ways on offense, namely that they don’t turn the ball over (1.46 A:TO, 8th in NCAA) and their efficient scoring (1.18 points per-possession, 18th in NCAA) helps them scrape out a respectable per-game average (70.3 PPG, 96th in NCAA).

While the Shockers aren’t known for their long-range prowess, they’ve shown the ability to get hot from deep (10-for-20 versus Kansas on Sunday). Spearheading the offense are G Fred VanVleet (12.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.7 APG, 10th in NCAA A:TO ratio) and G Ron Baker (15 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.4 3PT/G), while F Darius Carter (11.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and G Tekele Cotton (9.6 PPG, 4 RPG, 2.9 APG) round out the usual suspects on offense. After combining to go 1-for-9 from three versus Indiana, VanVleet, Baker, and Cotton combined to go 5-for-12 versus Kansas from deep. VanVleet, in particular, was outstanding against the Jayhawks in matching his season high of 27 points in the win.

Notre Dame runs its half-court offense just about as well as anyone in the country, as has been their calling card all season (1.2 points per-possession, 3rd in NCAA; 50.9 FG%, 2nd in NCAA; 1.6 A:TO, 4th in NCAA; 8 3PM/G, 34th in NCAA; 38.9% 3PT, 24th in NCAA) which allows them to score 78.2 points per game (14th in NCAA) despite playing at the 213th slowest pace in the nation. A deeper look, however, shows cracks in the façade starting to show through, indicating that the Irish may be starting to wear down from their earlier excellence.

The Fighting Irish have stalled out from deep (8-for-26) in the NCAA tournament so far, and they’ve only hit 10 or more threes in a game once in their past nine contests. Notre Dame had been outrebounded in each of their past seven games until needing overtime to grab 40 boards in a spirited effort versus Butler. It’s fair to question whether Brey’s shallow rotation and the ACC conference title run is starting to take its toll. If there was ever a game where Notre Dame will need their endurance, it’s against the hard-charging Shockers.

Senior G Jerian Grant (16.8 PPG, 6.6 APG, 49% FG) will once again try to lead the Fighting Irish where they haven’t been since 1979 – the Elite 8 – as he G Demetrius Jackson (12.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.9 APG) and G Pat Connaughton (12.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.6 3PM/G) are set up for what should be thrilling individual battles against the Shockers’ perimeter trio of VanVleet, Baker and Cotton. Grant has struggled shooting the ball in the tournament so far (37%) but picking up the slack has been Jackson, averaging 14.6 points per game on 55% shooting over his past five contests as Notre Dame’s secondary scoring option.

G Steve Vasturia (9.7 PPG, 1 SPG), Notre Dame’s defensive stopper, has also picked up his play on offense while pitching in a career high 20 points against Butler on Saturday. F Zach Auguste (12.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 60% FG) is starting to come on strong again, pouring in double-figure rebounds in two of his last three games.

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (26-11) vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (33-3)

Staples Center – Los Angeles, CA
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Wisconsin -5, Total 144

North Carolina and Wisconsin will duke it out Thursday night for a chance to advance to the Elite 8.

North Carolina faced Arkansas in its last game and won 87-78 as a 5-point favorite. The Tar Heels have now won five of their past six games SU and are 4-2 ATS in those contests. Offensively the team is clicking, shooting 45% or better from the floor in each of its past four games.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, beat Oregon 72-65 as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Badgers have won eight straight games SU and have been excellent offensively as well, scoring 72.0 PPG over the course of the winning streak.

These two teams have met just once in the past five seasons and the Tar Heels won that game 60-57 as 6.5-point home favorites on Nov. 30, 2011. North Carolina is 11-4 ATS after a non-conference game this season.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, is 21-10 ATS after a non-conference game over the past two seasons and 18-9 ATS after two consecutive non-conference games in that time. The Badgers are also 8-0 SU (4-4 ATS) when playing on a neutral court this season.

F Kennedy Meeks (Knee) is 'doubtful' for this game for the Tar Heels, who are already without Fs Desmond Hubert (Knee) and Sasha Seymore (Knee) for the season. G Traevon Jackson (Ankle) is doubtful for Wisconsin, but he is also the only player dealing with an injury for the team.

North Carolina has been one of the best offensive teams in the nation this season, scoring 77.9 PPG (17th in NCAA) on an outstanding 47.5% shooting (27th in NCAA). This team knows how to move the ball (17.7 APG, 2nd in NCAA) and also rebounds very well (41.0 RPG, 2nd in NCAA). The Tar Heels do, however, allow a rather poor 68.6 PPG (239th in NCAA) but a lot of that can be attributed to their preferred pace.

F Kennedy Meeks (11.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG) will need to be healthy if this team is going to advance. Meeks is a talented scorer around the basket and his strength would give Frank Kaminsky a lot of issues on Thursday. If he doesn’t play then his teammates will really need to step it up on the glass.

F Brice Johnson (12.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.1 BPG) would be the player that is asked to play a bigger role in the rebounding department. Johnson had 13 rebounds and two blocks before fouling out against Arkansas last game. He is very active around the basket on both ends and must stay out of foul trouble in this game, as he can’t foul out if Meeks is going to sit or be less than 100%.

G Marcus Paige (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.7 SPG) played one of his better games of the season against the Razorbacks, finishing with 22 points, six rebounds and five steals in 29 minutes of action. Paige got hot from three (3-for-6 3PT) and will need to find a way to find success against a Wisconsin team that knows how to slow the pace of games down. The Badgers did, however, allow Joseph Young to score 30 points last game and that proves that the team can have trouble with quicker guards that can shoot from the outside.

F J.P Tokoto (8.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.5 SPG) continues to stuff the stat sheet for the Tar Heels. He had 13 points, eight assists, five boards and two steals in 26 minutes last game. He’ll need to play a solid game defensively against either Sam Dekker or Nigel Hayes Thursday.

G Justin Jackson (10.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.3 APG) could really help this team with a solid scoring performance. He is averaging 15.0 PPG in the tournament so far and that type of game would give the team a real chance at upsetting Wisconsin.

Wisconsin has run one of the most efficient offenses in the nation this season, scoring 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 48.0% shooting (21st in NCAA). The Badgers are also allowing just 56.8 PPG (10th in NCAA), but they prefer to play at a very slow pace and aren’t as good defensively as that number suggests. They can have trouble stopping guards that penetrate the lane and will need to make sure they keep Marcus Paige in line Thursday.

C Frank Kaminsky (18.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.5 BPG) is averaging 21.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG in two games this tournament. He had 16 points and seven boards against Oregon last game, but didn’t play the way he is capable of in that contest. He will really need to make his presence felt inside against North Carolina in this game, especially if Kennedy Meeks is to sit out.

F Sam Dekker (13.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG) has really had an incredible tournament for Wisconsin so far, averaging 18.5 PPG in 34.0 MPG. Dekker went 7-for-16 from the outside in the first two tourney games for the Badgers and has made timely buckets late in games. He is extremely athletic and active around the rim on offense and has been playing solid defensively as well. He’ll need to be ready to perform at a high level once again, as teams are putting more and more emphasis on stopping Kaminsky.

F Nigel Hayes (12.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.1 APG) has also played very well both inside and outside for Wisconsin. Hayes comes to play every single night and is averaging 17.3 PPG over the past four contests. He is extremely strong once he gets two feet in the paint and he can also knock down jumpers as well as any guard on this team. If he is playing well then there will be less pressure on his teammates to score.

G Bronson Koenig (8.6 PPG, 2.4 APG) had 12 points in 28 minutes against Oregon. Koenig is an excellent outside shooter (41% 3PT) and can also run this offense to perfection despite his low assist numbers. He’ll need to hold his own against Marcus Paige on Thursday and if his previous performances in big games are any indication then he is certainly capable of doing so.

XAVIER MUSKETEERS (23-13) vs. ARIZONA WILDCATS (33-3)

Staples Center – Los Angeles, CA
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 10:17 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -10.5, Total 136

No. 2 seed Arizona looks to keep punishing tournament foes as it faces No. 6 Xavier for the right to go to the Elite Eight.

If it weren’t for Kentucky’s season-long dominance, Arizona’s recent play would be garnering more headlines. Surely for Coach Sean Miller, this isn’t a bad thing. The Wildcats, winners of 13 straight, will enter their game against Xavier as a double-digit favorite for the eighth straight game (5-2 ATS in previous seven). The Wildcats are fresh off of a 73-58 win over Ohio State in the third round, as they held star Buckeye guard, D’Angelo Russell, to nine points on 3-for-19 shooting.

The Musketeers, losers in the Big East conference finals to Villanova, have had the good fortune of facing two double-digit seeds in the NCAA tournament thus far, easing by No. 11 seed Ole Miss and No. 14 Georgia State 76-57 and 75-67 respectively.

The Musketeers did have impressive conference tournament wins over NCAA tournament teams Butler and Georgetown, as they enter this contest as winners of five of their past six (4-2 ATS).

Arizona will be the first non-conference opponent to make the NCAA tournament that Xavier plays this year, and will be the second time all season that the Musketeers are double-digit underdogs (88-75 loss at Villanova as 10-point underdogs on Jan. 14). Xavier is 5-3 SU (5-3 ATS) in neutral sites this season while Arizona is undefeated (8-0 SU) and 4-4 ATS on neutral courts.

Both Arizona and Xavier have had their total hit Under in four of their past five games respectively. The major storyline for the game will revolve around a subplot of coaching mentor versus protégé, as Sean Miller will be coaching against his former team, and former top lieutenant on the bench, Xavier’s Chris Mack.

Miller coached the Musketeers from 2004-2009 and Mack was his top assistant, as the two led Xavier to four NCAA appearances, culminating in one Elite Eight trip in 2008 and a Sweet 16 trip in 2009.

Once Miller left for Arizona, Mack took over at the end of the bench. Mack has led the Musketeers to the NCAA tournament in five of his six seasons as head man, including two Sweet 16 appearances.

Mack is 6-4 overall in the NCAA tournament. Miller, over his tenures at Xavier and Arizona has compiled a 16-7 overall NCAA tournament resume (8-3 at Arizona) and has reached the Sweet 16 in three straight seasons (and Elite Eight in two of the past three seasons. Miller’s three tournament losses at Arizona have all been by three points or less.

Five Xavier players average over 8.5 points per game, as Coach Mack has a solid eight-man rotation with a good mix of size, athleticism and experience. Only one Musketeer - G Dee Davis (8.5 PPG, 6.1 APG, 32 MPG) - plays 30+ minutes per game. Playing Arizona presents myriad problems, but chief of Mack’s concerns should be keeping the Wildcats off the glass, as Arizona (+9.5 reb margin, 2nd in NCAA) has upped that to a +12 rebounding margin over its past five games. X

avier is very good at keeping opponents off the glass (30.9 RPG allowed, 39th in NCAA), as it always helps to shoot 68% from the field, as it did in its win on Saturday versus Georgia State (in the process, allowing only 12 rebounds). Xavier’s total rebounding numbers are mediocre, but its strong defensive rebounding contributes to a rebounding margin that’s 60th in the country. Xavier’s overall profile from the field (47.7% FG, 22nd in NCAA) shows that the performance versus Georgia State on offense wasn’t completely out of the blue.

The Musketeers balanced offense shares the ball (16.3 APG, 9th in NCAA) and doesn’t turn it over (1.35 A:TO, 23rd in NCAA). Xavier hadn’t profiled as a team reliant on beating you with the three in the regular season (35.6% 3PT, 118th in NCAA) but its two NCAA tournament wins have been a different story, as the team has gone 17-for-36 from downtown.

Leading the long range efforts have been Davis (5-for-10 3PT) scoring 15 and 17 points respectively and fellow G Myles Davis (10.7 PPG) – no relation – who broke out of a 1-for-12 slump from long range going into the tournament to hit seven of his past 13 threes (including going 5-for-8 in the win over Georgia State). Xavier is led in scoring by senior C Matt Stainbrook (12.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.4 APG), who is very adept at finding the open man on offense from the high post.

The ever-inconsistent F Trevon Bluitt (11.7 PPG) would be very helpful to have contribute versus Arizona, as he’s scored only seven points over two games so far. F Jalen Reynolds (9.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) scored 21 points on 8-for-9 shooting from the field versus Georgia State and has the size and athleticism to match Arizona’s length inside, if he can stay out of foul trouble.

Given how well Arizona is playing as of late, the Wildcats won’t be fazed by Xavier’s defensive profile (191st in NCAA in points allowed). If Arizona is to struggle versus Xavier, it’ll be its own doing, as Xavier is excellent at drawing fouls (20.2 per game, 32nd in NCAA). Of course, Arizona profiles as even better, at 20.9 fouls drawn per game (12th in NCAA), but if F Brandon Ashley (12.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 51% FG), F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (10.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG), F Stanley Johnson (14.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG) or C Kaleb Tarczewski (9.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG) were to find themselves in foul trouble, they’d arguably be worse-equipped to deal with the depth drop-off than Xavier, as only one bench player for the Wildcats sees significant minutes (G Gabe York – 9.1 PPG, 22.0 MPG).

Given the way G T.J. McConnell (9.8 PPG, 6.4 APG, 2.1 SPG) has been playing recently, though, one gets the feeling that he’ll be able to will this club far past this round. McConnell has put on a show through two rounds so far, filling the stat sheet with 31 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists and nine steals in total thus far. Even more impressive, as a 6-foot-1 point guard, McConnell is shooting 13-for-21 from the field.

While Arizona doesn’t light it up from the perimeter, York (the aforementioned sixth man) can be a big weapon for the Wildcats, as he hit for 21 points (5-for-9 from three) in their most recent win over Ohio State. Hollis-Jefferson has quietly put up two straight double-doubles (points and rebounds) for the Wildcats, who will need more from their star freshman, Johnson, who went just 1-for-12 from the field versus Ohio State in the third round.

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (25-9) vs. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (36-0)

Quicken Loans Arena – Cleveland, OH
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kentucky -13.5, Total 136.5

Kentucky looks to stay perfect and advance to the Elite 8 with a win over West Virginia Thursday.

West Virginia faced Maryland in the last round of this tournament and won 69-59 as a 1.5-point favorite. The Mountaineers have now won-and-covered in two straight games and three of their past four. They have also covered in seven of their past nine games.

Kentucky, meanwhile, defeated Cincinnati 64-51 as a 16-point favorite last round. The Wildcats obviously come into this game after having won 36 games in a row SU. They have held their past nine opponents under 70 points and have only allowed their opponent to shoot over 40% from the field in four of their past 10 games. The Wildcats know how to make their opponent uncomfortable and they’ll look to do the same against West Virginia Thursday.

These teams have met four times since 1997 and Kentucky has gone 3-1 both SU and ATS in those games. The one West Virginia victory will hold significance though, as it was a Mountaineers 73-66 upset over John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins’ then 35-2 Kentucky team in 2010. That John Calipari team was considered one of the best he ever coached, so Bob Huggins will draw motivation from that upset for this year’s bunch.

West Virginia is 12-3 ATS when seeded 5 to 8 in the NCAA tournament since 1997 and 19-5 ATS overall in the tournament since then as well. Kentucky, meanwhile, is 84-58 ATS off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997.

F Kevin Noreen (Undisclosed) is out indefinitely for the Mountaineers and F Alex Poythress (Knee) is out for the season for the Wildcats.

The Mountaineers have been a solid team offensively this season, putting up 73.9 PPG (36th in NCAA) but they’re shooting just 41.2% from the floor (282nd in NCAA). They are also decent on the defensive end, allowing just 66.5 PPG (164th in NCAA) thanks to 10.9 SPG (1st in NCAA). West Virginia will need to play a nearly perfect game on Tuesday, forcing turnovers against Kentucky and also avoiding turning the ball over itself.

G Juwan Staten (14.2 PPG, 4.8 APG, 2.8 RPG, 1.1 SPG) will have to play a very good game against the Wildcats in this one. Staten struggled against Maryland, finishing with just six points in 34 minutes of action. He is this team’s most reliable scorer and will need to get his shots to fall in this one. He also has to do a solid job of finding his teammates, as he is this team’s best passer.

F Devin Williams (11.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG) has come into his own for the Mountaineers, averaging 17.0 PPG over the past three games. He had 16 points and 10 boards in 32 minutes against Maryland and must be extremely active in the game Thursday. Williams will be battling for rebounds against a big and athletic frontcourt, so he will have to bring some serious intensity to this game.

F Jonathan Holton (7.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG) also must have a big game on the glass. Holton had 12 points against Maryland last game, but he has had four or less rebounds in each of the past four games. He will need to be much better in that department in order for his team to have a chance of upsetting Kentucky.

G Daxter Miles Jr. (7.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is going to be an x-factor for this team. Miles Jr. is on fire recently, averaging 12.0 PPG over the past four contests. He is shooting 50% from three in those games and can really impact this game if he is stretching the floor.

Kentucky has been dominant throughout the course of the entire season, playing flawless basketball on both ends of the court. The Wildcats are allowing just 53.9 PPG (3rd in NCAA) thanks to 6.9 BPG (2nd in NCAA). Defense has been the strength, but they are also very good on offense. Offensively the team is impressive as well, scoring 74.9 PPG (29th in NCAA) on 46.9% shooting (40th in NCAA).

The guy that makes this team go is C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG). The big man has had 2+ blocks in each of the past five games and has unbelievable athleticism for a player his size. At 7-feet tall, Cauley-Stein runs the floor like a point guard and has very good timing. He’ll serve as a serious source of rim protection in this game and should also have a number of dunks as well.

F Karl-Anthony Towns (10.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.4 BPG) is another big man with big-time shot-blocking ability. Towns has stood out for Kentucky in this tournament, averaging 14.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 3.0 BPG over the past two games. He’ll need to continue scoring around the basket in addition to playing the great defense that fans have become accustomed to.

In the backcourt, Gs Andrew Harrison (9.2 PPG, 3.6 APG, 2.2 RPG) and Aaron Harrison (11.1 PPG, 1.2 SPG) are the two most consistent contributors. Andrew Harrison is responsible for running this offense. He is a smart player that avoids turnovers and he is capable of knocking down shots when called upon (39% 3PT). Aaron Harrison is this team’s crunch time scorer. He knows how to create his own shot and is not afraid of the big moment. He’ll need to play well in this game or the Wildcats could be upset before the Elite 8.

G Devin Booker (10.1 PPG) is going to be an important player in this game. Booker is one of the best shooters in the nation (41% 3PT) and is second on the team in points per game, but he’s scored in double figures just once in the past seven games. He’ll need to find his stroke in this one. Fortunately for the Wildcats, their roster runs nine-deep with players that could start on any other team in the country.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-25-2015, 11:22 PM

NBA ATS

NBA > (801) INDIANA@ (802) MILWAUKEE | 03/26/2015 - 08:05 PM
Play AGAINST INDIANA using the against the spread in All games in March games
The record is 7 Wins and 23 Losses for the last two seasons (-18.3 units)

NBA FIRST HALF

NBA > (801) INDIANA@ (802) MILWAUKEE | 03/26/2015 - 08:05 PM
Play AGAINST INDIANA in the first half in All games in March games
The record is 7 Wins and 22 Losses for the last two seasons (-17.2 units)

NBA TOTALS

NBA > (801) INDIANA@ (802) MILWAUKEE | 03/26/2015 - 08:05 PM
Play UNDER INDIANA on the total in All games in a road game where where the first half total is 93 to 95.5
The record is 6 Overs and 32 Unders for the last three seasons (+25.4 units)

NBA TOP POWERLINES

NBA > (801) INDIANA @ (802) MILWAUKEE | 03/26/2015 - 08:05 PM
Line: MILWAUKEE -1 BTB PowerLine: MILWAUKEE 1
Edge On: MILWAUKEE (2)

**StarDust Bum** · 03-25-2015, 11:28 PM

CBB ATS

CBB > (805) WICHITA ST@ (806) NOTRE DAME | 03/26/2015 - 07:15 PM
Play ON WICHITA ST using the against the spread in All games when the total is 130 to 139.5
The record is 19 Wins and 5 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.5 units)

CBB > (811) EVANSVILLE@ (812) LA-LAFAYETTE | 03/26/2015 - 07:30 PM
Play ON EVANSVILLE using the against the spread in All games after a non-conference game
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+7.9 units)

CBB > (803) W VIRGINIA@ (804) KENTUCKY | 03/26/2015 - 09:45 PM
Play ON W VIRGINIA using the against the spread in Road games in a NCAA tournament games
The record is 19 Wins and 5 Losses for the since 1992 (+13.5 units)

CBB MONEYLINE

CBB > (809) N CAROLINA@ (810) WISCONSIN | 03/26/2015 - 07:45 PM
Play ON WISCONSIN using the money line in Road games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 28 Wins and 6 Losses for the last two seasons (+21.25 units)

CBB > (805) WICHITA ST@ (806) NOTRE DAME | 03/26/2015 - 07:15 PM
Play ON WICHITA ST using the money line in All games when the total is 130 to 139.5
The record is 18 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+16.25 units)

CBB > (811) EVANSVILLE@ (812) LA-LAFAYETTE | 03/26/2015 - 07:30 PM
Play ON LA-LAFAYETTE using the money line in All games in March games
The record is 12 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+12 units)

CBB > (803) W VIRGINIA@ (804) KENTUCKY | 03/26/2015 - 09:45 PM
Play ON KENTUCKY using the money line in Road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games
The record is 16 Wins and 5 Losses for the last two seasons (+11.25 units)

CBB FIRST HALF

CBB > (807) XAVIER@ (808) ARIZONA | 03/26/2015 - 10:15 PM
Play ON XAVIER in the first half in All games after a non-conference game
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+9.8 units)

CBB TOTALS

CBB > (803) W VIRGINIA@ (804) KENTUCKY | 03/26/2015 - 09:45 PM
Play UNDER KENTUCKY on the total in All games in non-conference games
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the this season (+9.8 units)

CBB > (807) XAVIER@ (808) ARIZONA | 03/26/2015 - 10:15 PM
Play UNDER XAVIER on the total in Road games in March games
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)

CBB > (811) EVANSVILLE@ (812) LA-LAFAYETTE | 03/26/2015 - 07:30 PM
Play UNDER LA-LAFAYETTE on the total in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games
The record is 6 Overs and 23 Unders for the since 1992 (+16.4 units)

CBB > (805) WICHITA ST@ (806) NOTRE DAME | 03/26/2015 - 07:15 PM
Play UNDER NOTRE DAME on the total in All games in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the since 1992 (+10.8 units)

CBB TOP POWERLINES

CBB > (805) WICHITA ST @ (806) NOTRE DAME | 03/26/2015 - 07:15 PM
Line: NOTRE DAME 2 BTB PowerLine: NOTRE DAME -5
Edge On: NOTRE DAME (7)

CBB > (811) EVANSVILLE @ (812) LA-LAFAYETTE | 03/26/2015 - 07:30 PM
Line: LA-LAFAYETTE -3.5 BTB PowerLine: LA-LAFAYETTE -8
Edge On: LA-LAFAYETTE (4.5)

CBB > (809) N CAROLINA @ (810) WISCONSIN | 03/26/2015 - 07:45 PM
Line: WISCONSIN -6 BTB PowerLine: WISCONSIN -12
Edge On: WISCONSIN (6)

CBB > (803) W VIRGINIA @ (804) KENTUCKY | 03/26/2015 - 09:45 PM
Line: KENTUCKY -13.5 BTB PowerLine: KENTUCKY -18
Edge On: KENTUCKY (4.5)

CBB > (807) XAVIER @ (808) ARIZONA | 03/26/2015 - 10:15 PM
Line: ARIZONA -10.5 BTB PowerLine: ARIZONA -18
Edge On: ARIZONA (7.5)

**StarDust Bum** · 03-25-2015, 11:31 PM

NHL MONEYLINE

NHL > (63) FLORIDA@ (64) TORONTO | 03/26/2015 - 07:35 PM
Play AGAINST TORONTO using the money line in All games second half of the season
The record is 6 Wins and 30 Losses for the this season (-24.35 units)

NHL > (59) PITTSBURGH@ (60) CAROLINA | 03/26/2015 - 07:05 PM
Play AGAINST PITTSBURGH using the money line in All games vs. division opponents
The record is 9 Wins and 16 Losses for the this season (-15.9 units)

NHL > (53) ANAHEIM@ (54) BOSTON | 03/26/2015 - 07:05 PM
Play ON ANAHEIM using the money line in All games
The record is 24 Wins and 14 Losses for the last two seasons (+15.15 units)

NHL > (55) ARIZONA@ (56) BUFFALO | 03/26/2015 - 07:05 PM
Play AGAINST BUFFALO using the money line in All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 16 Wins and 55 Losses for the last two seasons (-31 units)

NHL PUCKLINE

NHL > (63) FLORIDA@ (64) TORONTO | 03/26/2015 - 07:35 PM
Play AGAINST TORONTO using the in All games second half of the season
The record is 6 Wins and 30 Losses for the this season (-24.35 units)

NHL > (59) PITTSBURGH@ (60) CAROLINA | 03/26/2015 - 07:05 PM
Play AGAINST PITTSBURGH using the in All games vs. division opponents
The record is 9 Wins and 16 Losses for the this season (-15.9 units)

NHL > (55) ARIZONA@ (56) BUFFALO | 03/26/2015 - 07:05 PM
Play AGAINST BUFFALO using the in All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 16 Wins and 55 Losses for the last two seasons (-31 units)

NHL TOTALS

NHL > (55) ARIZONA@ (56) BUFFALO | 03/26/2015 - 07:05 PM
Play UNDER BUFFALO on the total in All games when playing with 2 days rest
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders for the this season (+8.15 units)

**StarDust Bum** · 03-25-2015, 11:37 PM

After Pacific clinch, Warriors want more

March 25, 2015

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) - One goal down, still more to go.

That's the message the Golden State Warriors are giving after winning the Pacific Division for the first time in 39 years. Now they're trying to secure the Western Conference's No. 1 seed and homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs for the first time since the defending champion Warriors did it in the 1975-76 season.

''We all know the main goal, but baby steps,'' Warriors forward Draymond Green said. ''You have to reach certain milestones to get to the main goal, and this is one of them.''

After beating the short-handed Trail Blazers 122-108 on Tuesday night in Portland, players paraded around the visiting locker room with gold shirts that read: ''Pacific Claimed.'' They posted photos of the subdued celebration - no champagne in this one - all over social media but never let the party get out of hand.

''It was a good celebration relative to our accomplishment,'' Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. ''But also with the idea that there's more to come.''

Assistant coach Alvin Gentry encouraged the team to savor the achievement. The longtime NBA coach reminded everybody that historic accomplishments should never be overlooked.

''As Alvin said, `If you haven't done something for 39 years, you'd better celebrate it when you finally do,''' Kerr said. ''It's a great moment for our franchise. It kind of shows how far we've come the last few years and all the work so many people have put in.''

Just three years ago, the Warriors had made the playoffs only once since 1994. Now they're headed to the postseason for the third consecutive year.

Golden State has gone from 47 wins to 51 wins under former coach Mark Jackson to 58 wins and counting under Kerr - and there are still 11 games left.

''We can't rest on it,'' center Andrew Bogut said.

The Warriors are set to shatter the franchise record of 59 wins set in 1975-76, the year after they won their only championship in the Bay Area. They can match that mark at Memphis on Friday and give themselves a chance to break it at Milwaukee on Saturday.

''It's a nice little checkpoint, and hopefully we can finish the season strong, the same way we've been playing and keep our focus about what we're doing even though we've wrapped up the division,'' said Warriors point guard and MVP candidate Stephen Curry. ''We want to wrap up that one seed and just keep looking for the next goal.''

Finishing with the league's best record is starting to feel more like a matter of when - not if - it happens.

Golden State (58-13) began Wednesday with an eight-game lead over the Grizzlies (50-21) in the West. East-leading Atlanta (53-17) was four back in the loss column.

The Warriors would also win the tiebreaker with the Hawks should they finish with the same record. The teams split the regular-season series, so the tiebreaker would come down to each team's record against the other's conference. The Warriors are 24-5 against the East and can finish no worse than 24-6. Atlanta is 21-8 against the West.

Homecourt advantage would be huge for the Warriors. They're a league-best 34-2 at rowdy Oracle Arena, where sellout crowds are rocking road teams nightly.

These Warriors also know how important home court can be in the playoffs. They were eliminated by the Los Angeles Clippers in a decisive Game 7 at Staples Center last year.

And while they're relishing all these regular-season accolades right now, they know what happens in April, May and June is what matters most.

''The goal is still the goal,'' Green said, ''so the focus must remain the same.''

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2015, 12:09 PM

FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOWED AND PLAYED MURRAY ST. I APOLOGIZE FOR THE LOST. AM SURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BRING MORE EXCITING FINISHES....GOOD LUCK AND THIS IS WHY WE LOVE MARCH MADNESS.....YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE BUZZER GOES OFF......

March totals

nba

*****....................................... 17 - 22
double play................................ 18- 14
triple play.................................. 11 - 7 - 1
slam dunk...................................10 - 8 - 1
gom...........................................0 - 1

ncaabb

*****........................................50 - 27
double play.................................39- 30
triple play...................................27 - 11 - 1
slam dunk...................................12 - 11 - 2
gom............................................0 - 9
god.............................................1 - 0
goy.............................................0 - 1

nhl

*****....................................11 - 21.........................- 11.30
double play.............................17- 12.........................+11.10
triple play...............................8 - 5.......................... + 7.62
hat trick.................................13 - 7.........................+31.36

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2015, 12:10 PM

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Thursday, March 26

Sweet 16 Betting Trends

#1 Kentucky vs. #5 West Virginia

Kentucky 10-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in Sweet 16
Kentucky 3-7 Over/Under L10 Sweet 16
Kentucky 5-0 SU & ATS L5 Sweet 16 appearances
Kentucky's last Sweet 16 appearance last year (2014) won 74-69 against Louisville
West Virginia 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in Sweet 16
West Virginia's last Sweet 16 appearance in 2010, where they won 69-56

#1 Seed vs. #5 Seed

#1 seed 16-4 SU & 9-9-2 ATS when meeting in NCAA March Madness
#1 seed 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS L3 meetings in NCAA March Madness
10-10 Over/Under

#1 Wisconsin vs. #4 North Carolina

Wisconsin 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS in Sweet 16
Wisconsin 2-5 Over/Under in Sweet 16
Wisconsin's last Sweet 16 appearance last year (2014), beat Baylor 69-52, as 4-pt Favorites (1-0 SU & ATS)
Wisconsin 2-0 SU & ATS since 2012 in Sweet 16
North Carolina 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS
North Carolina 2-6 Over/Under in Sweet 16
North Carolina 1-5 Over/Under last 6 Sweet 16 appearances
North Carolina's last Sweet 16 appearance 2012

#1 Seed vs. #4 Seed

#1 seed 14-6 SU & 10-10 ATS when meeting in NCAA March Madness
7-13 Over/Under

#1 Duke vs. #4 Utah

Duke 6-7 SU & 4-7-2 ATS in Sweet 16
Duke 5-8 Over/Under in Sweet 16
Duke 2-4 SU & ATS last 6 Sweet 16 appearances
Duke 1-4 Over/Under last 5 Sweet 16
Duke's last Sweet 16 appearance in 2013, where they beat MSU 71-61 as 2-pt Favorites (1-0 SU & ATS)
Duke made Sweet 16 appearances in 2013, 2011, 2010, 2009
Utah 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS in Sweet 16
Utah 0-2 Over/Under in Sweet 16
Utah has not been to Sweet 16 since 2005

#1 Seed vs. #4 Seed

#1 seed 14-6 SU & 10-10 ATS when meeting in NCAA March Madness
7-13 Over/Under

#2 Arizona vs. #6 Xavier

Arizona 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS in Sweet 16
Arizona 8-1 Over/Under in Sweet 16
Arizona's last appearance in Sweet 16 was last year (2014), won 70-64, as 7.5-pt Favorites
1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS
Xavier 2-3 SU, 5-0 ATS in Sweet 16
Xavier 4-1 Over/Under in Sweet 16
Xavier's last Sweet 16 appearance was in 2012, where they lost 75-70, as 6.5-pt Dogs (0-1 SU & 1-0 ATS)

#2 Seed vs. #6 Seed

#2 seed 14-2 SU & 7-9 ATS when meeting in NCAA March Madness
#2 seed 2-5 ATS L7 meetings in NCAA March Madness
7-7 Over/Under

#2 Gonzaga vs. #11 UCLA

Gonzaga 1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS in Sweet 16
Gonzaga 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS L4 Sweet 16 appearances
Gonzaga hasn't been in Sweet 16 since 2009, where they lost 98-77 to North Carolina
UCLA 4-5 SU, 1-8 ATS in Sweet 16
UCLA 4-1 Over/Under L5 in Sweet 16

#2 Seed vs. #11 Seed

#2 seed 7-0 SU & 4-2-1 ATS when meeting in NCAA March Madness
3-4 Over/Under

#3 Oklahoma vs. #7 Michigan State

Oklahoma 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in Sweet 16
Oklahoma 2-2 Over/Under L4 in Sweet 16
Oklahoma's last appearance in Sweet 16 was in 2009
Michigan St 8-4 SU & 6-6 ATS in Sweet 16
MSU 3-9 Over/Under in Sweet 16
MSU 0-3 ATS L3 in Sweet 16 - 2014, 2013, 2012
MSU 0-3 Over/Under L3 in Sweet 16 2014, 2013, 2012
MSU's last appearance in Sweet 16 was last year (2014), where they beat Virginia 61-59 as 3-pt Favorites (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)

#3 Seed vs. #7 Seed

Since 2012, #7 seed is 2-0 SU & ATS in NCAA March Madness

#3 Notre Dame vs. #7 Wichita State

Notre Dame only 1 Sweet 16 appearance - 2003
Notre Dame 2003 0-1 SU & ATS when they lost 88-71 to Arizona
Wichita State 1-1 SU & ATS during their only 2 appearances in Sweet 16
Wichita State 0-2 Over/Under in 2 Sweet 16 appearance
Wichita State's last Sweet 16 appearance was in 2013 (#9 seed), beat LaSalle 72-58

#3 Seed vs. #7 Seed

Since 2012, #7 seed is 2-0 SU & ATS in NCAA March Madness

#4 Louisville vs. #8 NC State

Louisville 6-2 SU & ATS in Sweet 16
Louisville 4-2 Over/Under L6 Sweet 16 appearances, 2-0 Over/Under L2 years (2014, 2013)
Louisville's last Sweet 16 appearance was last year (2014), where they lost 74-69 to Kentucky
NC State 0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS in only 2 Sweet 16 appearances
NC State 0-2 Over/Under in Sweet 16
NC State's last appearance was in 2012, where they lost 60-57, but covered as 9-pt Dogs

#4 Seed vs. #8 Seed

#4 seed 1-4 SU & ATS in L6 meetings in NCAA March Madness
2-2 Over/Under

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2015, 12:11 PM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 26

My concern for Wichita State is that their win over Kansas was its Super Bowl, not having played Jayhawks since 1993. Shockers won 11 of last 12 games, are 12-2 out of conference. Notre Dame is in Sweet 16 for first time since '03; coach Brey lost his mom Saturday, so he was gone for part of prep for this. Irish won last seven games, winning first two tourney games by total of seven points. ACC underdogs are 3-0 vs spread in this postseason; MVC teams are 7-4, 5-4 as favorites. Last four 3-seeds who were favored in this round all failed to cover the spread.

North Carolina won its last 11 games in this round, but were favored in 10 of 11 games, and one-point dog in 11th game; their last loss in Sweet 16 was 1992. Tar Heels won five of last six games overall; they split two games vs Big 14 teams, losing to Iowa, beating Ohio State. Wisconsin is on 8-game win streak, may get PG Jackson back here; Badgers lost by 10 to Duke in its only ACC game. Last nine times a #1-seed played a 4-seed in this round, underdog covered seven times. ACC underdogs are 3-0 vs spread this postseason; Big 14 teams are 4-8 vs spread, 2-3 if favored.

West Virginia freshman Miles opened his mouth yesterday, assuring that Kentucky won't overlook WV here; Mountaineers had lost three of last four games before allowing 61.5 ppg in winning first two tourney games- they force turnovers 28.3% of time. Kentucky is unbeaten, with last six wins all by 13+ points; they only turn ball over 16.3 times a game, #35 at protecting ball. Big X teams are 4-6 vs spread this postseason; this is the first time they're a dog. SEC teams are 8-7 vs spread, 3-4 when favored. Huggins is 8-2 vs Calipari, but those were Cincinnati-Memphis games.

Sean Miller was coach at Xavier before before Arizona, hired Chris Mack as an assistant, so this is friends opposing each other. Wildcats won five of last six games, but were fortunate to play 14-seed Georgia State in the second round. Arizona won its last 13 games, winning first two tourney games by 21-15 points; Wildcats lost three games this year, all to teams who missed NCAA tournament. Last seven 2-seeds who played in this round went 3-4 vs spread. Pac-12 teams are 9-3 vs spread this spring, 5-3 as favorites. Big East teams are 6-4 vs spread, 2-2 as underdogs.

NIT games

CBI games

CIT tournament
UL-Lafayette won nine of last ten games, scoring 77 ppg in pair of road wins in this tournament; Ragin' Cajuns turn ball over 20.5 times a game, but sub a lot and play fast tempo (#13). Evansville is 12-2 in non-MVC games, scoring 82.5 ppg in winning first two CIT games, last of which was at Eastern Illinois. Sun Belt teams are 6-1 vs spread this postseason, 2-0 as favorites; MVC teams are 7-4 vs spread, 2-0 as underdogs.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2015, 12:12 PM

NCAAB

Thursday, March 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Sweet 16
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West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-13.5, 136.5)

Mountaineers’ second-chance looks vs. Wildcats’ weak rebounding

Kentucky may have defeated Cincinnati by 13 points in the Round of 32, but the Bearcats had UK faithful sweating a bit. Cincinnati wasn’t afraid of the big bad Wildcats and pushed around Kentucky inside, grabbing 19 offensive rebounds and scoring 14 second-chance points.

West Virginia presents even more of a threat on the offensive glass. The Mountaineers average 14.3 offensive rebounds per game – second in the nation – and create 13.1 extra scoring chances per contest – most in the country by a lot (VCU was second at 7.6). The Wildcats, on the year, allowed opponents to scoop up 9.4 offensive boards an outing – 236th in Div. I. Kentucky has the talent to overcome that glaring weakness, but you never want to give away this many extra looks with a spread this big.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-6, 144)

Tar Heels’ poor shooting vs. Wisconsin’ ability to slow down the game

Roy Williams’ game plan is about as secret as Kanye West’s innermost thoughts. The Heels are going to run and gun, push the tempo and attempt to score as many buckets in transition as they can. North Carolina ranks near the top of the country in possessions per game, at 71.9, and has even cranked that knob to 11 in the tournament, with 79.2 possessions in their track meet with Arkansas in the Round of 32.

Williams and the Tar Heels are approaching a very large speed bump in the Sweet 16. Wisconsin, known for its clock-eating offense under Bo Ryan, sits with just 61 possessions per game – sixth fewest in the country. What that does is drag the pace to a standstill and force UNC to play a halfcourt game. According to TheTarHeelBlog.com, North Carolina is 13-3 SU when possessing the ball 70 or more times but just 13-8 when posting less than 70 possessions this season. The Tar Heels aren’t a great shooting team in a half-court set and will struggle to get the looks they want against the Badgers.

Utah Utes vs. Duke Blue Devils (-5.5, 135)

Utes’ towering frontcourt vs. Jahlil Okafor’s foul shooting

Okafor has been great in the opening two games of the tournament, setting Duke’s freshmen NCAA scoring record with 47 points combined versus Robert Morris and San Diego State. Okafor even went 100 percent from the stripe against the Aztecs – 2 for 2 – but Duke fans aren’t counting on their star big man to knock them down at the stripe. For all his talents, Okafor is a terrible foul shooter, hitting just 51.6 percent from the line this season.

Utah presents a tall task for the project No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft – namely 7-foot freshman center Jakob Poeltl, who is quickly pumping up his draft stock this March. The native of Austria had 12 points in the win against Georgetown, handling a very tough Hoyas frontcourt. Behind Poeltl is fellow 7-footer Dallin Bachynski and 6-foot-10 Jeremy Olsen. That’s plenty of beef and 15 fouls the Utes can throw at Okafor. And with the way Utah is shooting the ball from deep, Duke can’t afford to trade 1-for-2 trips to the stripe against 3-pointers from the Utes.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Oklahoma Sooners (+2, 134.5)

Spartans half-court defense vs. Sooners’ up-tempo attack

Michigan State had better get its rest before Friday’s Sweet 16 game. The Spartans face a Sooners offensive that loves to push the tempo and fire up the quick shot, something MSU just doesn’t run into much playing in the methodical pace of the Big Ten. Michigan State, which had just 56 possessions in the win over Virginia, last faced a team with this pace in a 96-90 OT loss to Minnesota in late February. Sparty fired up 63 shots (average only 55.8) and turned the ball over 13 times in that contest.

Oklahoma will attempt to beat MSU down the floor and escape playing in a half-court offense, something the Spartans defend against better than most. In the win over Virginia, it was Tom Izzo’s adjustments on help defense that led MSU to a berth in the Sweet 16. The Sooners, who average 18.5 seconds per possession, want to avoid a physical grinder and turn this into a game of “catch us if you can”.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2015, 12:12 PM

NCAAB

Thursday, March 26

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NCAA Sweet 16 betting action report: Sharps showing up, WVU hot upset pick
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Wichita State Shockers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: Pick: Move: +2

Following their win over Kansas in the Round of 32, the Shockers have drawn the early money from bettors, moving this spread as many as 2-points at some books. However, one Las Vegas veteran smells something fishy with this line movement.

“I don’t fully understand it,” Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker at South Point Casino, tells us “I’m not calling it a ‘set-up game’ but I think there will be sharper money coming in on Notre Dame.”

Online, at Sportsbook.ag, Peter Childs saw similar money on the Shockers and tacked on extra points to their spread for this Thursday matchup. However, once the line hit WSU -2, wiseguys stormed back and bought Notre Dame as the underdog.

“We booked a ton of Notre Dame money and pushed this line back down to 1-1.5 points,” Childs tells us. “At Wichita -1.5, we’ve seen very good two-way action and I don’t see us moving off this line until we get closer to game time.”

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Wisconsin Badgers – Open: -3.5, Move: -6

The news that UNC forward Kennedy Meeks will miss the Sweet 16 with a knee injury has forced books to adjust the spread for this big-name battle. According to Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports for CG Technology in Nevada, Meeks is worth as much as 1.5 points to the Tar Heels spread due to this particular matchup.

“When we sat down to make the line we were thinking 3.5 or four, then when we heard (Meeks) was out, the line went to -6,” says Simbal. “You have a big guy who can run the floor like that, and North Carolina will have to run against Wisconsin, he’s worth a lot more against those big teams. Around 1.5 or two points.”

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Kentucky Wildcats – Open: -14, Move: -13.5

This spread hasn’t moved much since opened as high as 14 points and what action has come in has been on West Virginia. Books are now dealing UK -13.5 but it’s the moneyline bets on the Mountaineers at +850 to pull off the upset that have caught the attention of sportsbooks.

“There’s already a good amount of action on West Virginia, and a lot of that is moneyline,” says Simbal. “A lot of people will throw the WVU moneyline on some parlays and many will lay the points with Kentucky, making this a game we need UK to win by one through 13. It’s a nice middle to have on a game.”

Xavier Musketeers vs. Arizona Wildcats – Open: -9.5, Move: -11.5, Move: -10

Early action is on Arizona to cover, moving this Sweet 16 spread to double figures. The Wildcats haven’t been tested in the tournament so far and bettors don’t see Xavier stepping up to the challenge. Most Nevada books have taken all smaller wagers on Arizona and expect the tourist crowd to keep that trend rolling into the weekend. Online is another story, however, where the Wildcats got as high as -11.5 before wiseguys bought back the Musketeers.

“Arizona saw a lot of action not long after opening, driving the spread to -11 and then -11.5,” John Lester, of Bookmaker.eu, tells us. “But on Tuesday, we saw some steam on Xavier so we adjusted down a point. Unless the public gets more involved, I’m guessing this one closes at -10.”

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2015, 06:31 PM

NHL

Thursday, March 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Anaheim - 7:00 PM ET Anaheim +115 500 *****
Boston - Under 5 500

Arizona - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo +103 500
Buffalo - Under 5 500

Los Angeles - 7:00 PM ET Los Angeles +102 500 DOUBLE PLAY
NY Islanders - Under 5 500

New Jersey - 7:00 PM ET Washington -193 500 *****
Washington - Under 5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -175 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Carolina - Over 5 500

Florida - 7:30 PM ET Florida -158 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Toronto - Under 5.5 500

NY Rangers - 7:30 PM ET Ottawa -115 500
Ottawa - Under 5 500

San Jose - 7:30 PM ET San Jose +140 500 HAT TRICK
Detroit - Under 5.5 500

Nashville - 7:30 PM ET Nashville +135 500 HAT TRICK
Tampa Bay - Under 5 500

Montreal - 8:00 PM ET Montreal +115 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Winnipeg - Under 5 500

Colorado - 10:00 PM ET Colorado +167 500
Vancouver - Over 5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2015, 06:33 PM

NBA

Thursday, March 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indiana - 8:00 PM ET Milwaukee -1.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Milwaukee - Under 186.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

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