Saturday - Session 1
March 20, 2015
There is a reason that people refer to the men’s NCAA Tournament as March Madness. Anything can happen in a single elimination format regardless of how a team is seeded in its particular region of play.
Moving to this Saturday’s early games in the third round, there is a pair of matchups that are sure to catch the betting public’s attention for two totally different reasons. The first game features two teams that were not even supposed to be in this round and the other features a team striving for a date with destiny.
South Regional- No. 14 UAB vs. No. 11 UCLA (CBS, 12:10 p.m.)
Venue: KFC Yum Center
Location: Louisville, KY
Betting Odds: UCLA -7, Total 138
UAB was one of two major bracket busters in Thursday’s second round action by taking down No. 3 Iowa State in a thrilling 60-59 victory as a heavy 14-point underdog. Including the Blazers’ three-game championship run through last week’s Conference USA Tournament they are now 7-2 straight-up in their last nine games while going 5-3-1 against the spread. The total stayed UNDER the closing 145 ½-point line in Thursday’s win and it has now stayed UNDER in four of their last six games.
Freshman forward William Lee scored UAB’s final four points to sink Iowa State as part of a double-double (14 points and 12 rebounds) on the day. The Blazers’ leading scorer this season with 13.3 points per game is junior guard Robert Brown. He led all scorers in Thursday’s win with 21 points. UAB is averaging 68.9 points a game and shooting 43 percent from the field. Thursday it shot just 34.8 percent from the field, but outrebounded the Cyclones 52-37.
The Bruins were on the right side of a 60-59 upset of No. 6 SMU this past Thursday as four-point underdogs. This was their fifth SU win in their last six games and they have now covered ATS in eight of their last 10 contests. The total stayed UNDER the 132-point closing line against the Mustangs and it has now stayed UNDER in six of their last nine games.
This victory came with quite a bit of controversy after a very questionable goaltending call gave UCLA the lead with just 13 seconds on the clock. None the less, a win is a win and you have to give a ton of credit to sophomore guard Bryce Alford for coming up huge when his team needed it the most. He scored a game-high 27 points while going 9-for-13 from the field. All nine shots went in from three-point range. The Bruins are averaging 72 points this season while shooting 44.1 percent from the field.
Betting Trends:
-- The Blazers covered for the first time in their last five NCAA Tournament games, but they did improve to 5-1 ATS in their last six games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in those five games in the NCAA Tournament.
-- The Bruins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a SU winning record, but they have failed to cover in five of their last six nonconference games. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games against a C-USA opponent.
-- These two met in late-November this season in the Battle 4 Atlantis with UCLA cruising to an 88-76 victory, but it could not cover as a 14-point favorite. The total went OVER the closing 140 ½-point line.
Midwest Regional: No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (CBS 2:40 p.m.)
Venue: KFC Yum Center
Location: Louisville, KY
Betting Odds: Kentucky -18 ½, Total 118 ½
The Bearcats advanced to this Saturday’s showdown with a tight 66-65 victory against No. 9 Purdue this past Thursday. A buzzer beater sent the game into overtime and the Bearcat’s won the extra stanza 7-6. It was Cincinnati’s six SU victory in its last seven games, but it has failed to cover in its last two outings after going a perfect 5-0 ATS in its previous five games. The total went OVER the 117-point closing line after staying UNDER in six of their previous eight games.
Cincinnati would hardly be considered an offensive juggernaut with an average of 62.4 PPG. Junior forward Octavius Ellis leads the team with 10 points a game and he scored seven points in Thursday’s win. Sophomore guard Troy Caupain (9.5 PPG) led the way against the Boilermakers with 10 points including the shot that sent the game to overtime. The Bearcats have relied heavily this season on a defense that is allowing an average of just 55.6 PPG.
The Wildcats (35-0 SU) are one step closer to perfection following Thursday’s 79-56 waltz over No. 16 Hampton, but they could not cover as 35-point favorites. Kentucky has actually been a pretty solid bet since mid-February with an 8-2-1 record ATS in their last 11 games. The total went OVER the 134 ½-point closing line in Thursday’s win and it has gone OVER in six of its last nine outings.
Kentucky’s winning formula this season has been balance and depth on offense complementing a smothering defense that is allowing just 54 PPG. That being said, the romp over the Pirates was the Karl-Anthony Towns’ show. The freshman forward scored a team-high 21 points while going 8-for-12 from the field. The Wildcats’ leading scorer this season, sophomore guard Aaron Harrison (11.1 PPG) was held to just three points in that game after scoring a combined 36 points in his previous three starts.
Betting Trends:
-- The Bearcats have now failed to cover in their last four NCAA Tournament games and they fell to 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played at a neutral site. The total has gone OVER in 11 of their last 16 games in the NCAA Tournament.
-- The Wildcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games and 12-3-3 ATS in their last 18 games played at a neutral site. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games in the NCAA Tournament.
-- These two met one another in the 2005 NCAA Tournament with Kentucky coming away with a 69-60 victory as a 3 ½-point favorite. The total stayed UNDER the closing 138-point line.
March 20, 2015
There is a reason that people refer to the men’s NCAA Tournament as March Madness. Anything can happen in a single elimination format regardless of how a team is seeded in its particular region of play.
Moving to this Saturday’s early games in the third round, there is a pair of matchups that are sure to catch the betting public’s attention for two totally different reasons. The first game features two teams that were not even supposed to be in this round and the other features a team striving for a date with destiny.
South Regional- No. 14 UAB vs. No. 11 UCLA (CBS, 12:10 p.m.)
Venue: KFC Yum Center
Location: Louisville, KY
Betting Odds: UCLA -7, Total 138
UAB was one of two major bracket busters in Thursday’s second round action by taking down No. 3 Iowa State in a thrilling 60-59 victory as a heavy 14-point underdog. Including the Blazers’ three-game championship run through last week’s Conference USA Tournament they are now 7-2 straight-up in their last nine games while going 5-3-1 against the spread. The total stayed UNDER the closing 145 ½-point line in Thursday’s win and it has now stayed UNDER in four of their last six games.
Freshman forward William Lee scored UAB’s final four points to sink Iowa State as part of a double-double (14 points and 12 rebounds) on the day. The Blazers’ leading scorer this season with 13.3 points per game is junior guard Robert Brown. He led all scorers in Thursday’s win with 21 points. UAB is averaging 68.9 points a game and shooting 43 percent from the field. Thursday it shot just 34.8 percent from the field, but outrebounded the Cyclones 52-37.
The Bruins were on the right side of a 60-59 upset of No. 6 SMU this past Thursday as four-point underdogs. This was their fifth SU win in their last six games and they have now covered ATS in eight of their last 10 contests. The total stayed UNDER the 132-point closing line against the Mustangs and it has now stayed UNDER in six of their last nine games.
This victory came with quite a bit of controversy after a very questionable goaltending call gave UCLA the lead with just 13 seconds on the clock. None the less, a win is a win and you have to give a ton of credit to sophomore guard Bryce Alford for coming up huge when his team needed it the most. He scored a game-high 27 points while going 9-for-13 from the field. All nine shots went in from three-point range. The Bruins are averaging 72 points this season while shooting 44.1 percent from the field.
Betting Trends:
-- The Blazers covered for the first time in their last five NCAA Tournament games, but they did improve to 5-1 ATS in their last six games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in those five games in the NCAA Tournament.
-- The Bruins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a SU winning record, but they have failed to cover in five of their last six nonconference games. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games against a C-USA opponent.
-- These two met in late-November this season in the Battle 4 Atlantis with UCLA cruising to an 88-76 victory, but it could not cover as a 14-point favorite. The total went OVER the closing 140 ½-point line.
Midwest Regional: No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (CBS 2:40 p.m.)
Venue: KFC Yum Center
Location: Louisville, KY
Betting Odds: Kentucky -18 ½, Total 118 ½
The Bearcats advanced to this Saturday’s showdown with a tight 66-65 victory against No. 9 Purdue this past Thursday. A buzzer beater sent the game into overtime and the Bearcat’s won the extra stanza 7-6. It was Cincinnati’s six SU victory in its last seven games, but it has failed to cover in its last two outings after going a perfect 5-0 ATS in its previous five games. The total went OVER the 117-point closing line after staying UNDER in six of their previous eight games.
Cincinnati would hardly be considered an offensive juggernaut with an average of 62.4 PPG. Junior forward Octavius Ellis leads the team with 10 points a game and he scored seven points in Thursday’s win. Sophomore guard Troy Caupain (9.5 PPG) led the way against the Boilermakers with 10 points including the shot that sent the game to overtime. The Bearcats have relied heavily this season on a defense that is allowing an average of just 55.6 PPG.
The Wildcats (35-0 SU) are one step closer to perfection following Thursday’s 79-56 waltz over No. 16 Hampton, but they could not cover as 35-point favorites. Kentucky has actually been a pretty solid bet since mid-February with an 8-2-1 record ATS in their last 11 games. The total went OVER the 134 ½-point closing line in Thursday’s win and it has gone OVER in six of its last nine outings.
Kentucky’s winning formula this season has been balance and depth on offense complementing a smothering defense that is allowing just 54 PPG. That being said, the romp over the Pirates was the Karl-Anthony Towns’ show. The freshman forward scored a team-high 21 points while going 8-for-12 from the field. The Wildcats’ leading scorer this season, sophomore guard Aaron Harrison (11.1 PPG) was held to just three points in that game after scoring a combined 36 points in his previous three starts.
Betting Trends:
-- The Bearcats have now failed to cover in their last four NCAA Tournament games and they fell to 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played at a neutral site. The total has gone OVER in 11 of their last 16 games in the NCAA Tournament.
-- The Wildcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games and 12-3-3 ATS in their last 18 games played at a neutral site. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games in the NCAA Tournament.
-- These two met one another in the 2005 NCAA Tournament with Kentucky coming away with a 69-60 victory as a 3 ½-point favorite. The total stayed UNDER the closing 138-point line.
Comment