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Inside the Paint - Monday
March 16, 2015
The favorites finished up Sunday with a 5-3 straight up record but the underdogs showed some fight with a 5-3 mark against the spread. Over the last seven days, favorites went 37-15 SU and 30-22 ATS while the ‘over’ was 29-22-1.
It’s a new week and even though March Madness will garner all the attention, this is a great opportunity to sneak under the radar with the Association.
Ten games on tap for Monday and with the help of VegasInsider.com experts Bruce Marshall and Kevin Rogers, let’s break down the games.
Toronto at Indiana: Per Bruce Marshall - Indiana is not the same team that lost twice earlier this season to Toronto in similar-looking games (106-94 and 104-91 scorelines). Those results were before Pacers hit the acclerator in February, winning six in row and 11 of 13 SU (10-3 vs. line) thru March 11, an Indiana uptick that roughly coincides with G George Hill's return to active duty. Meanwhile, skidding Raptors have lost 10 of 12 SU (just 3-9 vs. line in those games). In the six-game win streak thru March 11, defense has really turned the screws for Pacers, who didn't allow more than 86 points in any game during that stretch. Top Eastern contenders now looking warily at Indiana as a first-round playoff foe they would rather not face.
Portland at Washington: Per Kevin Rogers - After struggling to score following the All-Star break in losses to Utah and Memphis, the Blazers’ offense has woken up by scoring over 100 points in seven of the past nine games, while winning eight times. Portland has won four of its previous six contests away from the Moda Center, which includes victories over potential playoff squads in the Clippers, Raptors, and Rockets. The Wizards own an impressive 9-4 record this season at home against Western Conference foes, while looking to avenge a seven-point loss at Portland in January.
Philadelphia at Boston: The Celtics are playing great basketball, winning and covering nine of their last 12 games but tonight’s game is real tricky. Boston (-9) just beat Indiana on the road and they come home for one game before heading to Oklahoma City and San Antonio. It screams flat spot against a 76ers team that has covered four of six and they could easily be 6-0 ATS during this stretch. Boston has already beaten Philadelphia three times this season, all by double digits, but that still has me real hesitant backing the team tonight.
Brooklyn at Minnesota: Per Kevin Rogers - The Timberwolves are a banged-up team right now with Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic listed as questionable for tonight’s action after missing last night’s blowout at San Antonio. This is a tough scheduling spot for Minnesota, coming off four straight road losses, a home game tonight, then two more games on the road starting Wednesday at Toronto. The Nets have taken care of their business as a road favorite recently, winning and covering three of their last four in this role, including Saturday’s win at Philadelphia.
Denver at Memphis: I’m very impressed by the Nuggets (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS) lately and last night’s overtime win at New Orleans (118-11) was real solid. They’ve scored 100-plus in all eight games during this span and appear to be playing looser without Brian Shaw as head coach. It also helps to get production from Danilo Gallinari, who is a really good NBA player. Despite the great run, I don’t like Denver tonight at all. Memphis is a real tough matchup for the Nuggets and they proved that when they beat them by 30 points (99-69) in late January. It’s a high number but I feel like the books are begging you to take Denver in this spot.
Cleveland at Miami (ESPN): I’m guessing LeBron James (knee) will be out for tonight or at least limited but Kevin Love should return to action. Cleveland has gone 10-3 (9-4 ATS) since the All-Star break and all three losses were on the road and Kyrie Irving sat out two of them. Miami has alternated wins and losses in its last six games and if you’re sticking with that trend, then the pendulum is swinging to a victory tonight. The Heat haven’t been great at home (14-18 SU, 12-18-2 ATS) but the pseudo-fans will show up and try to show LeBron that they don’t miss him, which could give the club a slight edge. At least it worked on Christmas when they beat the Cavaliers in his first return to South Florida.
Oklahoma City at Dallas: Per Kevin Rogers - A quick turnaround for the Thunder, who held off the Bulls on Sunday at home. OKC is 9-4-1 ATS this season with no rest, while looking to beat Dallas for the second time since the All-Star break. The Mavericks put up an impressive effort in Friday’s rout of the Clippers, but Dallas owns a 3-5 SU/ATS record since January at home against unrested opponents.
Charlotte at Utah: The Jazz have gone 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since the All-Star break. However, the four losses versus the number came when Utah was a home favorite. Tonight, the Jazz are laying five to Charlotte, who could be without center Al Jefferson (calf). The Hornets have gone 6-2 in their eight games and that includes three wins on the road. Total players could be indecisive here with the Jazz on a 6-1 run to the ‘over’ while the Jazz have delivered a 10-2 ‘under’ mark in their last 12. Seeing a total listed under 180 is rare in the NBA but this matchup justifies it.
Atlanta at Sacramento: The Hawks won’t have Kyle Korver or Al Horford in the lineup tonight and I wouldn’t be surprised to see other starters rest for Wednesday’s all-important battle at Golden State. The Kings (+5 ½) would be a look but I don’t like to back teams in their first game back from a long road trip and they didn’t exactly fare well (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) for bettors. It’s no longer a secret that George Karl’s identity is alive in Sacramento, who have pushed the pace and practically become defenseless since he’s taken over. The ‘over’ is 11-2 under Karl and has cashed in seven straight.
L.A. Lakers at Golden State (ESPN): Can the Warriors (-18) cover another healthy number? Golden State cruised past New York (125-94) on Saturday, which was the first Warriors-Over combination to connect since early February. I’m expecting limited minutes for Golden State’s starters tonight with the Hawks coming to town Wednesday. The Lakers will be playing on zero days rest and they’ve been beat up this season going 1-10 SU and 5-6 ATS. Lately, they’ve had trouble scoring in B2B spots and that’s resulted in five straight ‘under’ tickets. Make a note that Los Angeles has been a great investment as an underdog lately, going 9-1 in its last 10 spots.
Fearless Predictions: Although they lost, the underdogs came through for us last night and helped us finish the week 2-0 and bring the overall numbers up to 16-10 (+510). New week starts Monday and we’ll be posting through Sunday. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
1) Philadelphia +8.5
2) Under Lakers-Warriors 209
3) Under Atlanta-Golden State 210.5
March 16, 2015
The favorites finished up Sunday with a 5-3 straight up record but the underdogs showed some fight with a 5-3 mark against the spread. Over the last seven days, favorites went 37-15 SU and 30-22 ATS while the ‘over’ was 29-22-1.
It’s a new week and even though March Madness will garner all the attention, this is a great opportunity to sneak under the radar with the Association.
Ten games on tap for Monday and with the help of VegasInsider.com experts Bruce Marshall and Kevin Rogers, let’s break down the games.
Toronto at Indiana: Per Bruce Marshall - Indiana is not the same team that lost twice earlier this season to Toronto in similar-looking games (106-94 and 104-91 scorelines). Those results were before Pacers hit the acclerator in February, winning six in row and 11 of 13 SU (10-3 vs. line) thru March 11, an Indiana uptick that roughly coincides with G George Hill's return to active duty. Meanwhile, skidding Raptors have lost 10 of 12 SU (just 3-9 vs. line in those games). In the six-game win streak thru March 11, defense has really turned the screws for Pacers, who didn't allow more than 86 points in any game during that stretch. Top Eastern contenders now looking warily at Indiana as a first-round playoff foe they would rather not face.
Portland at Washington: Per Kevin Rogers - After struggling to score following the All-Star break in losses to Utah and Memphis, the Blazers’ offense has woken up by scoring over 100 points in seven of the past nine games, while winning eight times. Portland has won four of its previous six contests away from the Moda Center, which includes victories over potential playoff squads in the Clippers, Raptors, and Rockets. The Wizards own an impressive 9-4 record this season at home against Western Conference foes, while looking to avenge a seven-point loss at Portland in January.
Philadelphia at Boston: The Celtics are playing great basketball, winning and covering nine of their last 12 games but tonight’s game is real tricky. Boston (-9) just beat Indiana on the road and they come home for one game before heading to Oklahoma City and San Antonio. It screams flat spot against a 76ers team that has covered four of six and they could easily be 6-0 ATS during this stretch. Boston has already beaten Philadelphia three times this season, all by double digits, but that still has me real hesitant backing the team tonight.
Brooklyn at Minnesota: Per Kevin Rogers - The Timberwolves are a banged-up team right now with Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic listed as questionable for tonight’s action after missing last night’s blowout at San Antonio. This is a tough scheduling spot for Minnesota, coming off four straight road losses, a home game tonight, then two more games on the road starting Wednesday at Toronto. The Nets have taken care of their business as a road favorite recently, winning and covering three of their last four in this role, including Saturday’s win at Philadelphia.
Denver at Memphis: I’m very impressed by the Nuggets (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS) lately and last night’s overtime win at New Orleans (118-11) was real solid. They’ve scored 100-plus in all eight games during this span and appear to be playing looser without Brian Shaw as head coach. It also helps to get production from Danilo Gallinari, who is a really good NBA player. Despite the great run, I don’t like Denver tonight at all. Memphis is a real tough matchup for the Nuggets and they proved that when they beat them by 30 points (99-69) in late January. It’s a high number but I feel like the books are begging you to take Denver in this spot.
Cleveland at Miami (ESPN): I’m guessing LeBron James (knee) will be out for tonight or at least limited but Kevin Love should return to action. Cleveland has gone 10-3 (9-4 ATS) since the All-Star break and all three losses were on the road and Kyrie Irving sat out two of them. Miami has alternated wins and losses in its last six games and if you’re sticking with that trend, then the pendulum is swinging to a victory tonight. The Heat haven’t been great at home (14-18 SU, 12-18-2 ATS) but the pseudo-fans will show up and try to show LeBron that they don’t miss him, which could give the club a slight edge. At least it worked on Christmas when they beat the Cavaliers in his first return to South Florida.
Oklahoma City at Dallas: Per Kevin Rogers - A quick turnaround for the Thunder, who held off the Bulls on Sunday at home. OKC is 9-4-1 ATS this season with no rest, while looking to beat Dallas for the second time since the All-Star break. The Mavericks put up an impressive effort in Friday’s rout of the Clippers, but Dallas owns a 3-5 SU/ATS record since January at home against unrested opponents.
Charlotte at Utah: The Jazz have gone 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since the All-Star break. However, the four losses versus the number came when Utah was a home favorite. Tonight, the Jazz are laying five to Charlotte, who could be without center Al Jefferson (calf). The Hornets have gone 6-2 in their eight games and that includes three wins on the road. Total players could be indecisive here with the Jazz on a 6-1 run to the ‘over’ while the Jazz have delivered a 10-2 ‘under’ mark in their last 12. Seeing a total listed under 180 is rare in the NBA but this matchup justifies it.
Atlanta at Sacramento: The Hawks won’t have Kyle Korver or Al Horford in the lineup tonight and I wouldn’t be surprised to see other starters rest for Wednesday’s all-important battle at Golden State. The Kings (+5 ½) would be a look but I don’t like to back teams in their first game back from a long road trip and they didn’t exactly fare well (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) for bettors. It’s no longer a secret that George Karl’s identity is alive in Sacramento, who have pushed the pace and practically become defenseless since he’s taken over. The ‘over’ is 11-2 under Karl and has cashed in seven straight.
L.A. Lakers at Golden State (ESPN): Can the Warriors (-18) cover another healthy number? Golden State cruised past New York (125-94) on Saturday, which was the first Warriors-Over combination to connect since early February. I’m expecting limited minutes for Golden State’s starters tonight with the Hawks coming to town Wednesday. The Lakers will be playing on zero days rest and they’ve been beat up this season going 1-10 SU and 5-6 ATS. Lately, they’ve had trouble scoring in B2B spots and that’s resulted in five straight ‘under’ tickets. Make a note that Los Angeles has been a great investment as an underdog lately, going 9-1 in its last 10 spots.
Fearless Predictions: Although they lost, the underdogs came through for us last night and helped us finish the week 2-0 and bring the overall numbers up to 16-10 (+510). New week starts Monday and we’ll be posting through Sunday. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
1) Philadelphia +8.5
2) Under Lakers-Warriors 209
3) Under Atlanta-Golden State 210.5
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